The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Is Moose Good Again?

Mike Mussina backed up an encouraging outing in his last start with his best start of the season last night. It's tempting to assume that Moose is back, but two starts is a very sample size. Then again, so are the three starts where he stunk. So the question is if Mike Mussina has found something, or if he never really lost anything to begin with.

Dates GS W L IP TBF H HR R ER SO BB ERA RA
8/16-8/27 3 0 3 9.7 59 25 1 20 19 3 5 17.69 18.62
9/12-9/18 2 2 0 12.7 47 8 0 0 0 7 4 0.00 0.00


Dates FB%GB% LD%RS Stk%BABIP FIPxFIP HR/FBBB/9 K/9
8/16-8/27 41.2% 41.2% 17.6% -14.7 63.7% .471 5.48 7.24 0.05 4.7 2.8
9/12-9/18 22.2% 58.3% 19.4% 6.9 63.2% .222 3.04 3.95 0.00 2.8 5.0


TBF : Total batters faced
FB% : Fly ball percentage
GB% : Ground ball percentage
LD% : Line drive percentage
FIP : Fielding Independent Pitching
xFIP : Expected Fielding Independent Pitching
HR/FB : HR per fly ball (league average is around 11%)
RS : Runs saved above average
Stk% : Strike percentage
BABIP : Batting average on balls in play

The big difference I see is the FB%/GB% shift. He's not throwing a higher percentage of strikes on a pitch by pitch basis, but his BB rate is much improved and his K rate has almost doubled. His FIP and xFIP are markedly improved as well.

Moose is not going to be as good as he was in his last two starts, especially against better offenses, but I hope he has recovered something and can play a role in the Yankees fight for the World Series.

So yeah, the Yankees beat up on Baltimore 12-0 while Boston and Detroit both lost. If I were allowed to celebrate I'd be feeling pretty good right now, but since Jeter is King has decreed that I cannot, I'll just have to not care.
--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (880)

Comments

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When was Jetes crowned King?

I thought he was just Captain.

Now that’s what I call a promotion!

Can we get a little, itty-bitty yay?

I think for moose, confidence is everything. Also congrats to him for 16 straight years of 10+ wins

It’s more than confidence.  Mussina’s pitches were sharp yesterday and they had great movement.

IE is right (for once).  Moose’s confidence comes from being able to get those extra 4-5 mph on the fastball, hit his spots on the corners, get late movement, and not get squeezed by the umps, not the other way around.  I think the rest was big for him.  If he’s going to start in the playoffs, I would like to see him get a lot of days of in between (if the Yanks make it far enough). 

Just kidding about the (for once), IE.

not sure how to post links here, but i’ll give it a go…while i was reading this article, i actually didn’t hate kevin millar

Millar

Millar

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/09/19/2007-09-19_kevin_millar_says_red_sox_play_second_fi.html

Well, guess both BBcode and HTML work.

i’ve noticed in his last 2 starts that Moose is getting a lot of weakly hit ground balls to 1B and 2B.

i think this means he has made some sort of adjustment and is better locating his breaking stuff on the outside corner to RH hitters and they are just weakly hitting it to second. 

then again, what do i know…

Went to sosh this morning.Saw a post from a fella that said’’ I would rather have my wife raped by Hitler with my rabbi and self watching , then see J. D. Drew in uniform” . I can’t help but wonder how he feels about Mr. Gagne.

SG Will JETER IS KING confiscate all your Yankee gear if we win WS???

How can anyone explain the arm strength resurgence of Mussina was it the time off? I am a firm believer that if his fast ball is 89-90 he will be very effective.It just makes everything easier.A couple of posts back someone said his average was around 91 I find that hard to believe but an increase of any nature could explain the resurgence.

Sorry I just checked the post 90.3 avg high 92.That to me seems awfully high considering he was throwing 86-88 earlier.

SG Will JETER IS KING confiscate all your Yankee gear if we win WS???

I sure hope not.

Sorry I just checked the post 90.3 avg high 92.That to me seems awfully high considering he was throwing 86-88 earlier.

The gun in Toronto looks like it may be fast.  I’m pulling the data from yesterday to see how it compares.

The most impressive thing for me (and I wrote this yesterday too, but as a professor I’m accustomed to repeating things) is the fact that Mussina was able to handle Roberts, Tejada, Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis - all of whom had great numbers off him.  One could very easily make the argument that Mussina’s resurgence has come against two teams with limp offenses.  However, the above quartet can all hit and, before last night, had done rather well against Mussina - even last season when he had an ERA of 3.51.  In other words, if Mussina has the stuff he had last night come October, he will be successful.  What’s still open for debate is whether he can “get by” if his stuff isn’t completely there.

In other news, the Yanks are sending Austin Jaskson, Brad Suttle (a 3B from the University of Texas and supposedly one of the more polished hitters in the 2007 draft), George Kontos and Mark Melancon (who is coming off TJ surgery) to the Hawaii Winter Baseball league.  The league is somewhat the opposite of the Arizona Fall League in that it’s more of a pitcher’s paradise and more or less the equivalent of AA competition.  It will thus be interesting to see how Jackson fares.  If he holds his own, he’ll almost certainly begin 2008 in Trenton.

I wonder how much of Moose’s freakish decrease in BABIP (cut in more than half) is attributed to his better GB/FB ratio or to having better luck. Probably some of both, but the GB/FB probably dominates it.  This is really weird.. Moose looked like he should retire after those 3 starts, and now he look like he did pre-ASB 06. The important thing to think about is if these numbers jive with any adjustments we’ve heard about - and I think they have. Girardi constantly mentions Moose throwing his 2 seam fastball from a 3/4 or 4/5 arm angle, resulting in more zip and more late movement (which got him a couple of K’s last night.)  Perhaps the extra rest from getting skipped for Kennedy is helping his control as well, which seems to have improved across all of his pitches.

Steve Lombardi has a link to a Boston Globe article, saying that basically Francona doesn’t care if the Red Sox win the division or not, and will play to keep his players rested and his rotation aligned for the playoffs.

I have mixed feelings about winning the division - especially if it means sacrificing lining up Wang, Pettite and Clemens to start games 1, 2 and 3. Of course, the nice advantage to winning the division (besides the obvious bragging rights) would be to choose that 7 or 8 day series.

j, the 2 seam fastball is an interesting observation.  According to Gameday, Moose’s average fastball yesterday was 87.8 mph, with a high of 89.2.  Now, of the 50 fastballs he threw, only 8 did not have a downward vertical break of 4-6+ inches.  So I assume he threw 42 2-seamers, and 8 4-seamers.  Jives well with the spike in ground ball ratio.

One thing to remember though, ground balls are more likely to be hits than fly balls, so a low BABIP with a high ground ball ratio is usually not sustainable.  However, more ground balls = fewer extra base hits which is a good thing.

there is no way i believe that the Sox do not care about winning the division.

how can home field advantage in possibly TWO playoff series not have value??  how about the ability to choose the schedule for the first series and conversely, dictate the opposite schedule to the Yankees.

it’s pure spin from a team that can hear the footsteps.

I disagree yup.  The most important thing entering the playoffs is not to be the division champ (which hasn’t helped the Yanks one iota of late) but to 1) have one’s best starters lined up in the desired order and 2) one’s everyday players as rested and healthy as possible.  For example, I’d rather give Jorge a few days off between now and the end of the season than to play him every day and win the division.  Obviously, the Yanks have to clinch the WC before they can give serious thought to these sorts of things, but they certainly trump home field advantage - which is of dubious value in the playoffs.

I’m certainly excited about the way Moose has pitched in the last two starts.  Given that one of the teams just had a no-hitter pitched against them, I’m not ready to go nuts. And the game before last was against the Jays, who’s lineup isn’t particularly scary at this point.  Plus, add in the fact that the three starts that he got bombed in which sent him to the bullpen were against DET, LAA, and DET.  I’d like to see Moose face a tougher lineup before considering him for a playoff rotation spot.
However, having actually watched him pitch, I can see he did a very good job of keeping the O’s lineup off balance.  He had some nice break on his curve and great movement on his fastball.  His next start should be a good indication of whether he’s back.

I not only believe Francona, I praise him. Keep in mind that the Red Sox broke the Curse of the Bambino with a second-place team. The trophies that the 1997 and 2003 Marlins, the 2002 Angels, and the 2004 Red Sox got didn’t come with asterisks or special conditions. They’re all world champions, and that’s what matters.

I don’t give an airborne intercourse how the Yankees get into the postseason, as long as they get there and play well. Those last two words are the important part. The Red Sox are pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot no matter what they do, so Francona is wise to make sure that they’re ready for October.

And once the WC is a lock, the Yanks should do the same thing.

The most important thing entering the playoffs is not to be the division champ (which hasn’t helped the Yanks one iota of late)

1. we are talking about a team without a division title in 12 years
2. we are talking about a team with a huge advantage when they play at home

how can home field advantage in possibly TWO playoff series not have value??

Said value is comparatively low when you consider the number of teams who didn’t have it who went on to bring trophies home. We need look back no farther than last October, when the Cards didn’t have home field in any of the three series. Or the 2004 Red Sox, to give an example closer to home.

I think winning the division should matter a lot, especially for the Yankees (with their streak on the line) and the RS (shut out for so many years).  The argument for not caring about the division seem to be based on tactical considerations (opponents, HFA) that may or may not make any difference, or at least whose influence on events are notoriously difficult to predict.  On the other hand, winning the division represents a little morsel of glory that the team can enjoy regardless of what happens in the playoffs.

Or the 2004 Red Sox, to give an example closer to home.

it is also possible that the 2004 Red Sox were simply that much better than the rest of the field, and they are not this year. 

of course there are plenty of examples where home field advantage hasn’t mattered, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t want it.  it still has some value.

as does winning the East.  over the Yankees.  and getting to dictate that the Yankees throw their fourth starter in the ALDS, instead of Wang and Pettitte going twice.

trust me, the Red Sox don’t want to play the Yankees in the ALCS.

Wouldn’t the Red Sox choose the 7 day series so they don’t have to play four games against either Lackey/Escobar or, even worse, Sabathia/Carmona?  I think that consideration would trump the pleasure of dictating the Yanks’ schedule.

Wouldn’t the Red Sox choose the 7 day series so they don’t have to play four games against either Lackey/Escobar or, even worse, Sabathia/Carmona?  I think that consideration would trump the pleasure of dictating the Yanks’ schedule.

now that Matsuzaka is struggling, you probably have a point.  all season i have been thinking that Boston’s 1-2 can line up against anyone, but at this point, they might have to pitch Schilling in game 2.

jeter is king. what a tool!

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