thanks for doing this, SG.

CAIRO seems a little harsh on Marte, but that’s the way it goes at his age i guess.

i still think this was an OK contract.  Cashman has done a great job building a bullpen on the cheap, but he has struggled to find a decent lefty.  i don’t mind “splurging” on one with a very good track record, especially when he can also get out righties.

Yeah, CAIRO hates launchers in their 30s and it assumes pretty heavy atttition.  Also, the league difference is a non-trivial hit, about a half a run of ERA per season

Marte’s role will likely evolve over the course of his contract.  He wasn’t used as a lefty specialist by the Pirates or Yankees.  He was closing for the Pirates and then used as the 8th innings guy by the yankees.

As he ages his role will likely narrow to more of a LOOGY.  That may increase his effectiveness.  Alternatively, it will also decrease the number of innings he tosses and his opportunity to save runs.

Ultimately, I think Marte would have gotten more on the open market.  Over at Lohud Pete spoke with Cashman and Cash cited these three contracts as comparison’s for Marte’s deal:

Scott Schoeneweis (Mets): three years, $10.8 million

J.C. Romero (Phillies): three years, $12 million

Jamie Walker (Orioles): three years, $12 million

Hard to argue that Marte shouldn’t get more, never mind less, than Jamie Walker.  Walker and Scheonweis are really only lefty specialists.  Marte can do a lot more.

yeah, i was looking at the market for Marte more as the Linebrink/Speier market, as opposed to the “lefty reliever” market.

Marte has fared well against righties in his career, so i am viewing him more a guy who can pitch TEH 8TH!!1! than a tactical lefty. 

that’s why i initially thought $4M/year seemed like a pretty good deal.

"i was looking at the market for Marte more as the Linebrink/Speier market”

That’s also a very apt comparison - a better one than Jaime Walker.  And from that perspective it’s an even better signing.

Linebrink - 4 yrs/ $19M and he was a type A free agent somehow.

It’ll be interesting to see what Jeremy Affeldt gets.  A couple middle relievers get grossly overpaid each winter.  He seems like a good bet - lefty, some people thinking he might be able to close, etc.

just as an FYI, ZIPS is much more optimistic on Marte for 2009:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/yanks_signed_marte/

Does anyone know whether Marte got any potential trade protection?  If the Yankees are free to trade him at anytime this is a good deal.

I could very easily see Marte hit his 65% projection next season.  Also, he has been rather consistent for a reliever.  Cashman is probably projecting him not as a loogy but as the 8th inning set up man for 2008, with Bruney/Veras/Melancon slated for the 7th and everyone else, i.e. Albaladejo, Robertson, Edwar and Coke to fill the remaining roles.

Does anyone know whether Marte got any potential trade protection?

i don’t know, but i really doubt it. 

i don’t think those sort of things usually get into contracts this small.

SG when looking at Marte how does he compare to the likely more expensive Fuentes going forward?  When I looked at there numbers beyond saves they’re very similar also considering Marte is less the 6 months older.

I wanted the picks this year. I really think it was a very bad move signing him to a 3 year deal. But people in the media are happy with it because he is the fucking 8th inning man!!!111

I like the idea of having Marte as part of the bullpen. Obviously the projections are a crapshoot with middle relievers, but he’s been just about as consistent as you get.

I think the contract is a bad idea, however.  They should have just picked up his option and let him go after next year.  He’d likely still be a type A free agent since it’s based on the previous 3 years of work, and you just know he was going to get a deal *somewhere*.  I thought the point of developing pitchers was so we could take advantage of situations like these?

Wow… a rather massive ZIPS vs. Cairo variance.
Have the gurus compared trackings of predictive systems vs. outcomes over the lives of said systems?  Any obvious places where some outshine others?

I thought the point of developing pitchers was so we could take advantage of situations like these?

The problem for the Yankees came when they didn’t have a developed bullpen, so they had to pick up a new free agent it seemed like every year.

I understand the argument, but if you have one big money guy in a bullpen filled with developed pitchers, it is not that big of a deal, is it?

and this isn’t “big money”. 

j raises a good point, but i think it really comes down to the fact that while they done a very good job assembling bullpen arms, they don’t have an impact LH reliever anywhere in their system.  Coke *could* be that guy, but maybe they have designs on him starting. 

i think the other part of this is that Cashman might realize that Veras and Edwar could have some regression coming, and he was uncomfortable with a Marte-less bullpen.

Well, this one isn’t, but I’m pretty sure there is one big-money guy in the bullpen for the Yankees… Mario or something or other.

No.

SG when looking at Marte how does he compare to the likely more expensive Fuentes going forward?

CAIRO likes Fuentes quite a bit, since he’s put up his numbers at Coors.  For 2009, as a Yankee he’d project to have an ERA of 3.43 and a RSAR of 10.7.  Three year forecast says he’d be worth 29.6 RSAR if we use the same 1.23 leverage index we used for Marte, which would be worth $17 million or so.

Of course, he’s going to probably get 3 years, $30M, or 4 years, $40M from someone, so he’d be an even bigger overpay.

Have the gurus compared trackings of predictive systems vs. outcomes over the lives of said systems?  Any obvious places where some outshine others?

There’ve been a few articles written, I don’t have them handy.  In general, most of the projection systems are very close, and although some do better than others in some seasons, they don’t really seem to be all that much different.

Oh, and this year, Tangotiger is running a Forecaster 2009 Challenge to compare various projection systems with a pre-defined set of rules, so maybe someone will get bragging rights.

Are you going to enter CAIRO in the challenge?

Are you going to enter CAIRO in the challenge?

Yep, I’m already entered.  I think first prize is a pocket protector, so how can I pass that up?

maybe i will enter my proprietary “POOMA” (Pulled Out Of My Ass) projection system in Tangotiger’s contest.

Well, this one isn’t, but I’m pretty sure there is one big-money guy in the bullpen for the Yankees… Mario or something or other.

i consider Mariano’s salary sort of like putting money into the collection basket at Church…

Read the comments here if you want to feel better about yourself:

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/11/yanks_ready_to_wow_sabathia.html?partnerId=rss_nyy

That’s a big basket.

Sort of makes this look like a good idea, just applied to sports sites.

I actually think youTube just did do something like this.

Seems like Krod wants to go to the Mets. Honestly, if anyone is going to pay him what he wants it should be the them.

I feel like it is almost like the night before christmas...Do you think CC will wake up walk down the stairs of his house and see Hank donning the red and white with a forklift of gold bars? I do.

If money is the issue there is NO WAY he is not coming to NY.

Prediction: The offer will be so ridiculous that he signs this weekend.

Sort of makes this look like a good idea, just applied to sports sites.

i enjoyed this.

sometimes i read the comments on YouTube and start to wonder exactly where the human race is headed.  it really is like watching monkeys at the zoo fling poop at each other.

I tend to agree with j about Marte.  If they decided they needed him for 2009, which is perfectly fair, then why not just pick up the option?  They’d basically have their bet hedged for whatever Marte does in 2009:

1) If Marte sucks, the Yankees can let him walk.  They’d regret not letting him walk now while he’s a premium free-agent, but at least they wouldn’t be stuck with him for a couple more years.

2) If Marte is good, they still have the chance to resign him if they feel they need him for 2010 and beyond, OR, they can let him walk and get the good draft picks.

I just don’t see what they GAINED by signing him to the new deal.  They’re concerned about not being able to afford to resign him after 2009 if he pitches well?

I hope they space out their signings. Gives us something to talk about on a regular basis..

They’re concerned about not being able to afford to resign him after 2009 if he pitches well?

As much as Steve Lombardi is a clown, at some point he does raise an interesting point that Cashman sometimes has his ‘guys’ that he really likes/wants.  I remember he had a chance to dump Pavano on the Cardinals (or at least it was so rumored) and past on it. He’s wanted Marte back ever since he traded him. 

Or, it could just be that his staff is telling him that this is a good move for X, Y and Z and he’s pulling the trigger.

<i>I just don’t see what they GAINED by signing him to the new deal. </i.

they lowered the 2009 payroll by $2.25M (deal is for $3.75M in 2009)?

i know that isn’t much, and that these ARE the Yankees we are talking about, but maybe this indicates that the yankee actually have a hard payroll cap this year that they are trying to come in under??

i don’t know. 

i think i would have just picked up the option too.

that said, when i heard they were working on a 3 year deal, i assumed it was going to be for $18-21M so i was pleased when i heard $12M.  maybe when they were talking with Marte’s agent, they simply felt like his asking price was a relative bargain and they were happy to take the longevity risk in exchange for the lower salary.

Mars has launched again!  #30 should also be satisfied.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3700869

Swisher, nice. I’d love to talk about this but I have a test. It’ll have to wait.

The thing I like about the Swisher deal is it preserves roster flexibility.

You can use him at either of the outfield corners or at first base. Maybe even a little center. If they don’t get Texeira, Girardi can be clever and spread the at-bats around. Damon in LF, DH, occasionally CF.  Gardner gets most of the at bats at CF if he can handle it, otherwise more Swisher there. Nady at both corners and 1B. Miranda playing some 1B and DH. Matsui DH and occasionally LF. Posada getting a lot of time at DH and some at 1B. If they get Texeira, then you can use Swisher in the outfield more or as a super-bench guy. Get a decent utility infielder, plus Molina, and that’s a good bench.

And we only gave up Marquez?

Seems like Krod wants to go to the Mets. Honestly, if anyone is going to pay him what he wants it should be the them.

This is the type of thing that seems to go down less well than expected for the Mets (and most teams).

The Mets have been looking for a high price fix for so long.  That said I feel incredibly spoiled and lucky for cheering for Mo.

Hey, check out LoHud.  Looks like we got Texeira in the deal too.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/11/13/yankees-acquire-swisher-from-white-sox

SG, I love the idea of the prize.  “Pocket protector” is just the kind of thing that the project needs.

The monkeys just called.  They wanted to know exactly what they ever did to yup.