DeJesus DeJesus DeJesus!

Speaking of RH bats, Francesa says Bay will be a Met pending a physical. It could be announced early next week.

I was guessing that Cervelli would replace Johnson in the lineup at least some of the time against lefties.  You’ve got to figure Jorge’s time behind the plate will be limited to 120-130 games.

How much offense would the Yanks lose on those days?

Austin Kearns.

I was guessing that Cervelli would replace Johnson in the lineup at least some of the time against lefties.  You’ve got to figure Jorge’s time behind the plate will be limited to 120-130 games.

How much offense would the Yanks lose on those days?

Assuming the equivalent of 53 games vs. LHP, the difference between Cervelli and Posada would be about six runs worse if Cervelli played all of those games.  So even if he took something like half of those starts, you’re only looking at difference of three or so runs, plus you get better defense, although probably not enough to completely negate the offensive difference.

Why don’t they just announce the Holliday signing already? Nobody believes the small budget nonsense, no matter how many times Cashman tells Heyman to write down every word he’s about to say.

I think Holliday ends up in STL.  I kinda hope he does, actually, even though I’d love to have him as the NYY LFer.

If the Yankees sign someone like Reed Johnson to spell Granderson in CF from time to time versus lefties, the gap between the two lineups shrinks a bit more.

I wish there was a guy out there who had this line vs LHP: .274/.369/.517. Oh wait, there is. It’s Jonny Gomes. The defense is brutal, but perhaps with Gardner and/or Hoffman on the roster, you can do some late inning substitution. Gomes is also a pretty good DH should the unforeseeable happen with Nick Johnson.

But he did get into a fight with Shelley Duncan 2 years ago in spring training.

Reed Johnson does seem like a better package than Gomes because of the defensive versatility, but Gomes’ line against LHP is a bit better. Could be an option worth looking at.

So if Bay got $15M/year for 4 years, and Holliday is younger and better than Bay…

@4 I as well like Austin Kearns and wonder if he’s going to have to accept a minor league deal. 

SG how does Kearns project as a platoon player?  He’s always been a good defensive player in RF.

[9] Doesn’t Holliday have a 5/90 offer on the table from STL?  I thought I read that a while back.

Why are the SF Giants on a strict $88M budget or whatever it is?  They play in one of the largest and wealthiest markets in the country.  Granted they split it with Oakland but their addressable market in terms of $‘s is probably substantially higher than Seattle who has no problems opening up their wallets when necessary.  Another example of owners who want to go for profit margins over wins.

Put me on the Gomes bandwagon.

SG how does Kearns project as a platoon player?  He’s always been a good defensive player in RF.

<u>Austin Kearns</u>
Kearns would project to hit around .230/.336/.370 overall as a Yankee, with splits of
.222/.326/.358 vs. RHP and .244/.357/.393 vs. LHP.

His overall line is essentially replacement level for a LF, and even with the platoon boost he doesn’t really look very useful offensively.

He hasn’t played LF in the last four years, but projects as +8 in RF, so he’d probably project around there in LF as well.

I wish there was a guy out there who had this line vs LHP: .274/.369/.517. Oh wait, there is. It’s Jonny Gomes. The defense is brutal, but perhaps with Gardner and/or Hoffman on the roster, you can do some late inning substitution. Gomes is also a pretty good DH should the unforeseeable happen with Nick Johnson.

<u>Jonny Gomes</u>
Gomes would project around .229/.317/.448 overall as a Yankee with splits around .222/.306/.434 vs. RHP and .243/.336/.476 vs. LHP. 

Gomes projects better than Kearns offensively, but he also projects as around -8 defensively, which essentially nullifies his value.

If you could combine Kearns’s glove with Gomes’s bat, you’d have a player.  Since you can’t, I don’t really see the sense in either of them.

<u>Reed Johnson</u>
Johnson would project around .259/.324/.382 overall with splits of .251/.313/.370 vs. RHP and .275/.344/.406 vs. LHP.  Defensively, he projects around +7 in LF, -3 in CF and average in RF.

In terms of total value, looking at the three of them as strictly the left-handed part of a LF platoon for 250 PAs, it’d look like this:

Kearns: +2 batting runs above replacement level in LF, +3 defense, +5 total
Gomes: +5 BRAR, -4 defense, +1 total
Johnson: +1 BRAR, +3 defense, +4 total

Gomes projects better than Kearns offensively, but he also projects as around -8 defensively, which essentially nullifies his value.

Is this in RF or LF? Could you move Swisher to LF and Gomes to RF?

But they’d likely playing against LHP the majority of the time- how does that change their value?

Is this in RF or LF? Could you move Swisher to LF and Gomes to RF?

Sure, you could, but Gomes projects as bad in RF as he does in LF, so it wouldn’t change much unless we had reason to think Swisher would be better in LF than RF.

Yeah, it looks like Johnson is the answer if this is the direction they want to go in. He can be used in a lot of different places, so he doubles as injury insurance for the other outfielders as well.

SG, if I understand correctly, you adjusted Granderson’s career split against Leftie/Rightie pitchers to something nearer the average L/R split.  However, I presume that adjustment left his overall batting unchanced.  So, you project better LH batting than he has done, but worse RH batting than he has done.

I see two other plausible scenarios.  One is that his batting against righties is unchanged, but he finds a way to improve his batting against lefties. Another is that his batting against RH pitching is unchanged and he’s platooned with Hoffman or Reed Johnson against lefties.  Either of these possibilities would mean a slightly improved team wOBA against right handed pitching with no reduction against lefties.

Adding in outstanding pitching and improved outfield defense, 2010 should be a fun year for Yankee fans.

SG thanks for the comparison of those 3.  Would you want the Yankees to bring in Kearns on a minor league deal with a spring training invite?

Also how would Kevin Russo project as a platoon outfielder?

Get me off the Gomes bandwagon.

I hope Damon uses this post when he sues Boras for negligence.  The yankees were able to replace his value while lowering payroll!

[13, 21]
Dave S. is hereby declared funny.
As I said a few days ago - I can’t see the point of spending money on any of the non-elite LF (putative) improvements, since Gardner doesn’t suck.

Nady might be a corner OF platoon option too. Career ~.370 wOBA v. lefties. Even if you regress that a bit, he’d still probably be ~.355 against lefties. Not sure how bad the defense would look…

[24] If he plays..

However, I presume that adjustment left his overall batting unchanced.  So, you project better LH batting than he has done, but worse RH batting than he has done.

Right.  Regression works in both directions.

Would you want the Yankees to bring in Kearns on a minor league deal with a spring training invite?

Yeah, if the Yankees think he can play some CF (he projects better than Reed Johnson there actually), he’s probably a better choice than Johnson.  He projects a hair better offensively and defensively and is four years younger which means he probably has a better chance of outperforming his projection.

Also how would Kevin Russo project as a platoon outfielder?

Does Russo play OF? 

<u>Kevin Russo</u>
.249/.311/.339 (.294 wOBA) overall,
.241/.301/.328 (.284 wOBA) vs. RHP,
.264/.330/.360 (.312 wOBA) vs. LHP.

Nady might be a corner OF platoon option too. Career ~.370 wOBA v. lefties. Even if you regress that a bit, he’d still probably be ~.355 against lefties. Not sure how bad the defense would look…

Yeah Nady would be nice, but it sounds like he’s asking for more than the Yanks are willing to spend.

<u>Xavier Nady</u>
.280/.337/.475 (.350 wOBA) overall,
.271/.326/.459 (.339 wOBA) vs. RHP,
.297/.358/.504 (.372 wOBA) vs. LHP.

His LF defense projects around -5 over a full season, but he projects much better offensively than any of Johnson/Kearns/Gomes.  Can’t play CF though, and the health of his arm is probably a source of concern.  Should the unthinkable happen and Nick Johnson gets hurt, Nady would be a pretty good backup DH too.

[25] Exactly. If Nady was willing to sign for a low base salary with incentives, he’d probably be a good fit, if he’s healthy. But he reportedly wants a lot of money, and I’m not sure that there are any definitive reports that state that he will be fully recovered by ST, of even by May…or even June.

A healthy Nady on a 1 year deal at something like $8M is a no brainer, but this sentence is loaded in 3 different ways.

Actually it’s loaded in 4 ways.

Reed Johnson
Johnson would project around .259/.324/.382 overall with splits of .251/.313/.370 vs. RHP and .275/.344/.406 vs. LHP.  Defensively, he projects around +7 in LF, -3 in CF and average in RF.

SG,

I’m surprised you have Johnson projected so low vs lefties. His career numbers v L as I’m sure you know, are .313/.378/.463, and his totals over the last three years are even better than that. Why such a mediocre projection?

[30] From original post:

I’m using platoon splits based on what a player’s done to this point in his career, but regressed towards the mean platoon split for same-handed batters using 2000 PAs.

Does Russo play OF?

In 2008 he played a handful of games in the corners (1 in LF, 6 in RF, may have been in the same game).  I remember reading Chad Jennings last year talking about Russo practicing in the OF some and that he *may* play in some games, but it doesn’t appear he ever got into one.

Something the Yankees seem to be doing with their MIF prospects - if they don’t project as a starter, get them experience in the OF.  I think it is smart, as with current roster constructions you rarely have more than 4 bench players.  So if you can get one that is a UIF AND a 5th OF you can also afford to carry a pure bat on the bench.

If Russo makes the team out of ST, either it is b/c they think he can contribute more than Pena, OR they feel Pena would benefit more from playing full-time at AAA and maybe develop into more than just a utility player.  I like Russo, but if he’s starting games in LF before September, Yanks are in trouble.

At least according to Beyond the Box Score, using PitchFx data, Posada projects to be really bad at blocking pitches in 2010, and so does Molina.

[33] Of course.  He’s never been good at it and he’s old now.

I’m anti-Gomes and anti-Kearns.  Reed Johnson interests me, since he’s mashed lefties for several years running and can play some CF.  Nady also interests me, but the price tag seems too high and one does have to worry about his elbow.

[34] True. The quasi-surprise was Molina. I have thought that aspects of his defense were declining, and that at least partially confirms it.

[35] I too noticed that Molina’s defense had slipped.  Specifically, it was when he flat out flubbed a couple of fairly easy blocks/catches.  I remember saying “Jose, man, that’s your one skill.  That’s your job - play defense.  If you can’t do that…”

And then I saw Cervelli do his job.  Really, really well.

Anyone heard any news about Molina playing next year?

I’d imagine that SOME team out there would give him a look as a backup, but I’ve heard nothing to that effect. I guess he’s one of those guys who won’t catch on until closer to Spring Training.

[37] I don’t exactly have my ear to the ground for that sort of thing.  But I think there are a bunch of other similar guys out there still looking for jobs.  Chances are Molina will end up being a NRI for some team or another.

One of them could still be the Yankees.  I think Chris Stewart has already signed with another team, so the Yankees are missing the veteran catcher they like to keep in AAA (they signed someone but I don’t know if that is just adding depth).  Molina could be that guy; mentor Montero, catch once or twice a week, and if there is an injury early and they don’t think Montero is ready you could do a lot worse than Molina backing up Cervelli (or Posada).

[38] that would be an excellent arrangement, not sure how interested Molina would be in that.  i am open to being wrong, but just off the top of my head i’m surprised that Molina isn’t good enough to be a backup somewhere.  that’s a pretty low bar. 

re: the bench.  another thing i have been thinking about, i think the Yankees would be in an excellent position this year to use an 11 man pitching staff.  the Yankees have 4 starters who have pretty good odds to throw 200 innings, plus Joba, who has a good shot to throw 175-200 innings.  then, in their bullpen, they could have 2-3 guys with backgrounds as starters.  guys like Gaudin and Aceves who can throw multiple innings on a fairly regular basis.

squeezing an extra bench spot makes carrying a platoon in LF pretty easy.  and if you feel like you need another arm, Hoffman gets offered back to LA and you call up your 12th reliever. 

just a thought. but i think the Yankees, by way of having 2 of the more durable starters in MLB, have as good a shot at doing this as anyone.  of course, someone is bound to get miss some time along the way which will throw everything off, but the back up plan isn’t exactly the end of the world either.

SG, your decision to regress platoon splits towards the mean for same-handed batters using 2000 PAs seems reasonable.  However, I would like to know whether this approach was a judgment or if there is some analysis showing that this formula produces better predictions.

[40] A procedure of at least this general sort is recommended by The Book (by Tangotiger et al.).

i am open to being wrong, but just off the top of my head i’m surprised that Molina isn’t good enough to be a backup somewhere.  that’s a pretty low bar.

I agree, but it seems to me last time I checked (a while ago, admittedly), there were a bunch of guys that looked like backup-catchers out there.  Of course I have no idea how many teams still have needs for backup catchers.  As for Molina being open to it…if by early February the best he has are minor-league contract offers, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be.  He seems to like the organization, knows Posada has been on the DL each of the last two years.

i think the Yankees would be in an excellent position this year to use an 11 man pitching staff.

This is 100% logical and a fantastic idea.  Meaning, it is unlikely to happen.

So the Mets signed Bay.  I actually feel bad for them..

SG… my guess is JD would sign a 1/$8m or 1/$9m deal. How much would JD change our Winning formula?

Didn’t SG have Damon at 1.7 WAR?

That would seem to make a 1/$8MM deal ok.

I wonder, is the Holliday signing being delayed so he doesn’t have to pay taxes on the new contract in 2009? Or is he waiting for more stuff to come available when the New York real estate market picks up after the new year?

SSF, you’re being unusually caustic.  I almost get the impression you’re working a reverse jinx that the Yanks don’t land Holliday.

Gardner in CF is a 1.7 WAR player by CAIRO, if I understand SG correctly (seems a bit conservative to me given that he put up a 1.9 WAR in 2009 in much less playing time while hitting his offensive projections [all iirc]).  I don’t see why $8 for in effect a 4th outfielder/backup DH worth 1.7 WAR/600 PA makes sense.

I think it’s a mistake for the New York Yankees to go into the season with what are really bench players as the LFs.

For one thing, it leaves no margin for error. Nick Johnson or any of the OFs or Tex go down, and the bottom of the lineup becomes Gardner/Johnson/whomever plus the next guy on the bench - Miranda, etc.  20-25% of the time, it also becomes Cervelli. 

I can understand if this were a fantasy baseball roster, or the Royals or A’s or some low-revenue team, but i can’t respect the Yanks saving $4-6 million to turn LF into a platoon instead of manning it with Damon.  It’s like not fixing a big dent on a Mercedes.

It’s not like there’s a time limit (other than the trading deadline) for fixing LF if Gardner and/or Hoffman under perform. It’s also unlikely that Damon would accept $4-$6m for one year, and even if he ultimately would, Cash has expressed reservations about re-signing a veteran at a significantly reduced salary. So I don’t see the urgency to make a move now.

“It’s not like there’s a time limit (other than the trading deadline) for fixing LF…It’s also unlikely that Damon would accept $4-$6m for one year, and even if he ultimately would, Cash has expressed reservations about re-signing a veteran at a significantly reduced salary”

the $4-$6 million figure is adding to the $4 million that, according to the press, is budgeted for LF - putting Damon in the Abreu-ish $8-$10 million range.

as to the reservations, if the press is accurate on that, it would reflect poorly on Cashman’s judgement to arbitrarily dismiss Damon for that reason; it’s just a generalization, so I’d hope he’d at least discuss it w/Damon instead of assuming Damon would act like a slime.

as to the trading deadline, getting someone who is actually good will cost you at least one good prospect. so add losing a good prospect to the total cost of not signing Damon.

[52] If they are willing to go over their budget, then instead of merely burning up to $10m in 2010 on Damon, why not pay $16-$17m in 2010 for Holliday?

Using the word arbitrary suggests that you are making a value judgment. It’s possible Cashman may have articulable facts that would justify his reluctance to bring back a player under those circumstances.

An alternative possibility is that the Yankees will have found a cost-controlled in house option that offense/defense adequately fills the required role.

I almost get the impression you’re working a reverse jinx that the Yanks don’t land Holliday.

At this point I don’t really care; the Sox just need to be as good as they can and accept that the Yankees will be their primary obstacle. I just want to put to rest once and for all the Cashman tactic of pretending the Yankees are deeply worried about their budget. They’re not. And they need a left fielder. Not so badly that they will bite, but just enough so that when the dying market completely rolls over, they’ll (wisely) swoop in and nab him for a reasonable price, all things considered.

OK, the Cardinals are serious contenders, but why would he not have signed with them already? And why are the Yankees taking so much time to fill the spot? The idea that they’re not interested seems nonsensical.

The Cards and Holliday closing in on deal.

[55] Good. I feel he would under perform greatly in the AL east. Too much money. Bad defender. Stupid last name. Drinks Coors. Go away. Beat the Brewers and Cubs up. If he can.(he will).

I just want to put to rest once and for all the Cashman tactic of pretending the Yankees are deeply worried about their budget.

Can we also put to rest once and for all the idea that the RS can’t compete financially with the big, bad Yankees?

“I just want to put to rest once and for all the Cashman tactic of pretending the Yankees are deeply worried about their budget.”

Not clear on the claim here - why isn’t it $250 if so?

Can we also put to rest once and for all the idea that the RS can’t compete financially with the big, bad Yankees?

Sure, right after we sign Mauer.

Sure, right after we sign Mauer.

The Yankees will ensure that if you sign him, it will cost you $35m a year for 10 years.

And why are the Yankees taking so much time to fill the spot? The idea that they’re not interested seems nonsensical.

It actually really is possible that Cashman is sticking to his budget.  Right now, on paper, the Yanks are right around a 100-win team.  Is it really worth adding another $1 salary + $0.50 luxury tax guy to make the team a 102-win team?  I don’t think so.  Theo wouldn’t think so.  And I don’t think Cashman does, either.  I’m with OTF, preferring no Holliday.  NL + Coors Field = Bloated Perceived Value.

Any decision to spend more money to improve the team would likely be done to ensure against (or compensate for) injuries, age-related declines, and seasonal variations in performance, but it doesn’t have to be done during the offseason.

Some links (from Rob Neyer):

Tom Tango is defending UZR in a 10-part series (answering ten questions provided by skeptic Mike Silva).  Here is Part I.  Good read, and I’d strongly suggest reading the comments as well.

Here is a review of the concept of [url=“http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb,211211
” target=“_blank”]WAR[/url].  I think most of us know this stuff already, but still pretty good.  I don’t know anything about the author (Alex Remington), but he seems focused on the FanGraphs version of WAR, to the exclusion of all else.  Which I think he does what a lot of us do - it is freely available and updated regularly, so we use it, even though it is probably better to use several versions.  These comments, read at your own peril.

Tom Tango is defending UZR in a 10-part series (answering ten questions provided by skeptic Mike Silva).

One of the great intellectual mismatches…

[40] A procedure of at least this general sort is recommended by The Book (by Tangotiger et al.).

Right, that’s where I read about it.

SG… my guess is JD would sign a 1/$8m or 1/$9m deal. How much would JD change our Winning formula?

On paper, not much, because of the downgrade in defense.  Of course, that assumes that my projections for Damon/Gardner/Hoffmann are in the right ballpark.  If the Yankees have reasons to believe Damon will perform better than CAIRO thinks and/or Gardner/Hoffmann would perform worse then bringing Damon back might make more sense.

I don’t know who will go after him, but I’d be shocked if he had to settle for one year. 

I don’t see why $8 for in effect a 4th outfielder/backup DH worth 1.7 WAR/600 PA makes sense.

See above.  Just because CAIRO sees it one way doesn’t mean other systems would necessarily agree, especially if the primary difference is in projected defense given the uncertainty around even the best defensive metrics.

as to the reservations, if the press is accurate on that, it would reflect poorly on Cashman’s judgement to arbitrarily dismiss Damon for that reason; it’s just a generalization, so I’d hope he’d at least discuss it w/Damon instead of assuming Damon would act like a slime.

Would Damon actually admit to this even if Cashman discussed it with him?  Not sure what discussing it would do.  Maybe Cashman doesn’t think Damon is a good bet to be worth whatever he is asking for due to age, health, scouting?  That’s probably far more likely than him not wanting to risk a disgruntled Damon underperforming while probably playing for his next contract.

It actually really is possible that Cashman is sticking to his budget.  Right now, on paper, the Yanks are right around a 100-win team.  Is it really worth adding another $1 salary + $0.50 luxury tax guy to make the team a 102-win team?  I don’t think so.  Theo wouldn’t think so.  And I don’t think Cashman does, either.  I’m with OTF, preferring no Holliday.  NL + Coors Field = Bloated Perceived Value.

Another factor that I’m sure is part of the reason for sticking to a budget is the pending renegotiation of the CBA after 2011.  Let’s say the Yankees could afford Holliday, and end up signing him, then go on to win the World Series again in 2010.  If we thought the whining after this year was bad, it’d be unbearable next year, and may lead to enough teams wanting to impose a hard salary cap that a work stoppage would be a realistic possibility.

With Melky gone, the Yankees need to see what they have in Gardner/Hoffmann so they can look ahead past 2010.  Even if it’s a short-term hit, giving them both extra playing time this year as the LF platoon could pay dividends down the line if it helps the Yankees better gauge their strengths and weaknesses.

Also, $8M for Damon is more like $11-12M with the luxury tax implications.

With Melky gone, the Yankees need to see what they have in Gardner/Hoffmann so they can look ahead past 2010.  Even if it’s a short-term hit, giving them both extra playing time this year as the LF platoon could pay dividends down the line if it helps the Yankees better gauge their strengths and weaknesses.

Which is of course a fantastic reason.  Honestly, if the Yankees get replacement-level value from LF this season, they’ll still be playing meaningful games the last two weeks of the season (unless they’ve already clinched).  Sure, lots of other guys could have down years, get hurt, etc.  But that’s even *more* reason to not do something that could hamper Cashman’s flexibility (roster and financial) later.  And of course the fact that Gardner, Hoffman, or both could end up being well above-average players could benefit the Yankees for years to come.

go on to win the World Series again in 2010.  If we thought the whining after this year was bad, it’d be unbearable next year

I think I could manage to endure the strain.

go on to win the World Series again in 2010.  If we thought the whining after this year was bad, it’d be unbearable next year

This may sound silly, but around the holidays I’ve got a pretty good litmus tests for the general feelings towards the Yankees. Most of my wife’s family are Mets fans, and while I won’t get too into conversations about the Mets with them, as all Mets fans do, they talk about the Yankees. There’s two in particular - one is more of a Francessa clone, the other has a little more distinguished opinion.

They’re general consensus this Christmas was that the 2010 Yankees are scarier than the 2009 Yankees and that the payroll went down. I was glad to not hear much whining about payroll, etc. Hopefully you all have similar experiences.

They’re general consensus this Christmas was that the 2010 Yankees are scarier than the 2009 Yankees and that the payroll went down.

Yeah, Cashman in control has the team running much smarter.  Neyer referenced a NOMAAS post that detailed the downward age trend in both pitching and position players the Yanks have seen since Cashman gained control of the reins in 2005.  And to quote an earlier post of his, regarding Holliday and payroll flexibility:

Yes, the Yankees can afford Holliday.

But the only way the Yankees can fall into a habit of losing, someday, is by stockpiling too many players in their 30s with big long-term contracts. It’s incredibly difficult to place a value on flexibility, but that value is real and important and Brian Cashman’s awareness of that value is going to keep the Yankees on top for quite some time.

Last year was the ridiculous splurge, and it paid off.  This year, the Yanks got better while also getting younger and cheaper.  Their one risk is in regards to immediate depth, particularly in the OF, and some higher-risk injury guys that will make the offense run (A-Rod, Posado and Glass Johnson).  But as many others have pointed out, this is something that can be addressed midseason, if need be.  Unfortunately, if that’s what it comes to, the Yanks won’t be dealing from a position of strength.

Unless Newman’s comments about Chapman that Chad Jennings quoted yesterday are merely puffery, I think signing him would cap off a nearly perfect offseason.

On a slow day like this, would anyone care to speculate on what Cashman will do *next* offseason? We’ve pretty much exhausted the LF debate. There’s quite a few dollars (potentially) coming off the books next year. Basically, it’s Jeter ($22.6M in 2010), Rivera ($15M in 2010), Vasquez ($11.5M in 2010), and Johnson ($5.5M in 2010). I don’t think anyone here thinks they’d let Jeter and/or Rivera walk, and the conversation really needs to happen with their 2010 performances included, but assuming they do what they are projected to do, the 2010-2011 offseason can potentially be quite crazy.

Also, when I read Cashman say that the next offseason is much more important than this one, I think he considers the loss of Jeter and Rivera. He’s obviously confident he can resign them, but when he does interviews and makes statements, he does not speak as though he has these players on his 2011 roster. Likewise when he said pitching was a priority this season - he needed and got 2 starters, which was a lot of work to do, even if we all knew that it was pretty much a guarantee that Pettitte would return.

[70] Yeah I think the Yankees have a budget for signing him, one that happens to be 2-3MM more than anyone else. I hope.

BTW, I’m confused, what the hell is this white stuff coming out of the sky? I haven’t been home in a while. It’s confusing.

[71] With regard to Jeter and Rivera post-2010, I think the best we can hope for is that Hal permits Cash to make a decision based solely on baseball considerations.

Clay, it’s the Ooblick - RUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!

[74] The thing I’m worried about is that when they handed out contracts to River and Posada in similar situations, they did two things: (1) They added 1 more year than we all thought was reasonable and (2) they made it a point to make them the highest paid players at those positions. For Jeter, what’s that going to mean - 4 years/$80M?

[74] I don’t think he will and I don’t think he should.  Not “solely” anyway.  For example, if Derek Jeter the player is worth to the Yankees - from a baseball perspective -  3/48, and he insists on 3/54, are you going to say it isn’t worth $2M a year for 3 years to have him retire a Yankee?  Sure, if there is a better SS available at a reasonable price, or if Jeter pulls a Damon, you don’t want to do it just b/c he is Jeter.  But I have no problem w/ him bending a little to keep DJ in pinstripes.

[71] I think it’s way too early.  As you’ve said we’ve discussed the OF to death.  Possible positions to fill besides that (assuming Mo and DJ return) are the bullpen (build from within), DH, SP, C, and…that’s probably it.  But we don’t know yet how any of the young catchers might progress, how the young starters (including the minors do), if one or both catchers progress Posada could be the DH, or Montero could if his bat keeps going but defense stalls, etc, etc.  I think Cashman is hoping he doesn’t have to go anywhere near the FA market, but understands he may need 2 or 3 players from it.

[77] I’ll concede the point in terms of AAV, but not in terms of years.

[78] Agreed, unless it is optional years that either can’t vest, or the vesting conditions are sufficiently difficult that he’d need to be playing at a high-level the whole time.  Or maybe some middle-ground that I think has been done a few times.  E.g. a 2 year contract, $2M buyout on the option but if Jeter hits 600PA (or whatever) in year 2 the buyout goes up to $6M.

With Melky gone, the Yankees need to see what they have in Gardner/Hoffmann so they can look ahead past 2010.  Even if it’s a short-term hit, giving them both extra playing time this year as the LF platoon could pay dividends down the line if it helps the Yankees better gauge their strengths and weaknesses.

I’m sorry but this is what drives me nuts.  They are unwilling to do this with Joba and Hughes but they should be willing to do it with Gardner? 

I see all three positions as question marks.  If they were unwilling to go into the season with all 3 as question marks then that’s fine but Joba and Phil should be much higher on the list of players to get a chance than Brett Freakin Gardner.

I agree with this is spirit but I don’t for one second see the case for Gardner getting that shot over one of Joba and Phil.

I agree with this is spirit but I don’t for one second see the case for Gardner getting that shot over one of Joba and Phil.

That’s because you’re not considering the market conditions that would allow you replace any of these players if they don’t perform well enough to keep their spot. Chamberlain and Hughes may be monumentally better prospects than Gardner, but finding a LFer is monumentally easier than finding a starting pitcher. At least it is in this market according to Cashman.

They are unwilling to do this with Joba and Hughes but they should be willing to do it with Gardner?

Cashman got a pitcher he believes was elite (regardless of what you or I believe).  He didn’t get some marginal upgrade just b/c he liked the certainty of mediocrity over the potential of Hughes/Chamberlain.  If Cashman had room in the budget, I’m sure he would have happily gotten an elite LF.

More accurately, he’s going with last year’s starting CF, and an upgrade over last year’s starting LF.  He’s just switching where they stand in the OF.  How are they not already better?

I’m sorry but this is what drives me nuts.  They are unwilling to do this with Joba and Hughes but they should be willing to do it with Gardner?

Either Joba or Phil is going to start the season in the rotation, and the other is going to start the season in the bullpen.  Another starter is going to miss some games, and the bullpen guy will likely be asked to step in.  In any event, I think we can anticipate 250-300 innings from Joba and Phil combined this season.  That seems like a decent chance to me.

I agree with this is spirit but I don’t for one second see the case for Gardner getting that shot over one of Joba and Phil.

The case would be:
a) We know that even if Gardner doesn’t hit well, he should provide better than average value in baserunning and defense.
b) We know that Gardner hitting ninth will impact 4 or 5 PAs a game.  A starting pitcher can impact 25-30.
c) It’s a lot easier to leverage Gardner’s skills to the game situation (platooning, pinch-hitting, defensive replacement etc.,) than it is for a starting pitcher.

j‘s point is also a good one.  The cost for quality starting pitching is generally higher than the cost for an offensive player at a non-premium defensive position.

If we assume Hughes is going to be on some kind of innings restriction this year, having him start the year in the pen isn’t the worst thing in the world, because it’s almost certain the Yankees will need to use a sixth starter several times.  I’d hope they tailor his usage such that he can be moved into the rotation with minimal building up or whatever, but that will require Marte, Robertson, Aceves and Melancon pitching well enough to make Hughes superfluous in the pen.

If the Yankees don’t need a sixth starter in 2010, that likely means they’re going to win 105 games.

In 2011, two spots in the rotation may open up depending on what the Yankees do with Vazquez and Pettitte.  If both Hughes and Chamberlain show well in 2010 in whatever role they’re in, they should both be in the rotation in 2011.

Ken_Rosenthal
 
Marlon Byrd close on three-year deal with Cubs.

It looks like we may have dodged the Marlon Byrd bullet.

[85] Happy Festivus!

BTW, Tagg Bozied is an awesome name for a baseball player.

Right but the dropoff from Hughes isn’t into the unknown abyss of nothingness.  Gaudin is already on the team and able to step in if he should falter.  The drop off from Gardner is really the unknown abyss of nothingness. 

I’m sure Melky + couldn’t have brought back a LFer on the level of Javy.  I love the Vazquez trade.  I’m very high on him and always have been.  It’s hard to argue against making that trade.  All things considered I still would have done it but that doesn’t excuse the Hughes staying in the bullpen last year where the very same “short-term hit could pay dividends down the line if it helps the Yankees better gauge their strengths and weaknesses” argument could have been (and was) made.

Maybe there is just a lack in communication here so I’ll flat out ask.  What do people see as Gardner’s upside and long term what do you realistically expect him to be?  I’m saying his upside is DeJesus and long term I realistically expect him to be a good 4th OFer, defensive replacement, and PR while he is still young and cheap.

I’m having trouble following you so I’ll try to respond to what point I think you are making.

The drop off from Gardner is really the unknown abyss of nothingness. 

The point I’m (and others, I think) trying to make is that it’s not.  There are a ton of serviceable platoon situation options out there for the level of production that the Yankees would realistically need given their as-is roster.

To compound things, I’m not sure why you’re first asking why they used resources to displace one of Hughes or Chamberlain instead of using resources to displace Gardner, and then saying that you ‘love the Vasquez trade’, which implies that you agree with them using resources to displace Chamberlain or Hughes.

What do people see as Gardner’s upside and long term what do you realistically expect him to be?

Ceiling?  .300/.400/.450 (lots of triples), ++ defense, 40-50SB.  That’s at his peak (1-3 years from now), if things go right.  Expect him to be?  For the next 3-5 years, solid starter in CF, fringy starter in the corners.  That is, he’ll hit enough to let him use his legs, to gain enough offensive value to be about average in CF, add in his defense and he’ll be solid.  Put him in the corners and he’ll lose enough value that he’ll be a fringe player.  So on the Yankees, if Granderson’s defense holds up and they develop/import a star LF next year, Gardner would be a 4th OF.

To compound things, I’m not sure why you’re first asking why they used resources to displace one of Hughes or Chamberlain instead of using resources to displace Gardner, and then saying that you ‘love the Vasquez trade’, which implies that you agree with them using resources to displace Chamberlain or Hughes.

I’m saying in the end I agree with the trade because Javy is better than anyone that could have been had for LF for a similar package.  But I’m also saying the same “short-term hit could pay dividends down the line if it helps the Yankees better gauge their strengths and weaknesses” was not the approach they took with Hughes last year and was not the way people were looking at the team pre Javy.  The fact that people are willing to do that for Gardner and not Hughes doesn’t sit right with me.

.300/.400/.450 (lots of triples), ++ defense, 40-50SB.  That’s at his peak (1-3 years from now), if things go right.

To put that in perspective for you, that would make him the best CFer in baseball.  That would match 2007 Grady Sizemore on offense and surpass him on defense and make him a 7-8 WAR player worth over $30M a year.  You HONESTLY think that is his ceiling?

You HONESTLY think that is his ceiling?

Well, first of all, It sounds like Mike is talking about what Gardner’s single best season might look like, rather than projecting a sustained peak.  But you also have to remember than Mike (and rilke) are huge TVSBG fanboys.  So regress accordingly.  Gardner might put up a slash line like that in limited playing time or in a strict platoon role, but we need to remember that he’s 26 and is already close to the peak of his physical skills.  His improvement, if it comes, will be of the adjustment variety.  His upside is maybe sort of a Brett Butler with more strikeouts—and the strikeouts don’t all come at the expense of other kinds of outs, so they will reduce his BA and SLG.  So I’m going to POOMA maybe something around .280/.370/.370 or so, along with the excellent D and baserunning.  A perfectly cromulent player for a few years, but not a perennial all-star.

And oh, BTW:

The fact that people are willing to do that for Gardner and not Hughes doesn’t sit right with me.

That’s just because: a) you’re ignoring the fundamental difference between pitching and everything else, and b) you’re pretending that the way the 2010 season actually plays itself out won’t change any minds about the best approach to take WRT Gardner’s long-term development vs the team’s short-term needs.

And of course, Happy New Year everybody.  And to quote Andy Rooney, “If you drink New Year’s eve, don’t drive and if you drive and drink, don’t do it near me!”

“To put that in perspective for you, that would make him the best CFer in baseball.  That would match 2007 Grady Sizemore on offense and surpass him on defense and make him a 7-8 WAR player worth over $30M a year.  You HONESTLY think that is his ceiling?”

What’s “ceiling” here? Plus two sigma or more?  Since he was 2.1 WAR last year in less than 250 PA, including a fair number of ABs coming back from an injury and being used spottily, I don’t see why he shouldn’t put up a 4 WAR/y per year for several years for a total of a few $s.  Maybe he gets a little stronger/learns the league’s pitchers and hits a few more doubles and ups his value a bit - if I get two sigma I can probably reasonable add another WAR/y.  Of course he’s not going to get any faster, and lots of SBs and catches off the wall aren’t going to make for longevity.  And I wouldn’t take him performing up to his 80% level straight up for Sizemore (though he’s not coming off elbow and abdominal surgery) even given the latter’s $5/y contract, but whyever should we discuss his ceiling when you’re discounting his plain projection?

Of course he’s not going to get any faster

Is this because the S in TVSBG means ‘speed of light’?

I believe Gardner can put up Brian Roberts type numbers while playing a great defensive center field.

he was 2.1 WAR last year in less than 250 PA

No he wasn’t.  He was ~1.3 WAR in 250 PA, and another 0.8 WAR in ~630 defensive innings.  You have to believe that he will consistently be a +15 defender to go forward with projections based on that 2.1 WAR, and even if you do believe that you still shouldn’t use PA as a denominator for a player who provides so much of his value on defense.

I don’t see why he shouldn’t put up a 4 WAR/y per year for several years for a total of a few $s.

Please define several, because anybody who puts up 4 WAR/year for three years is going to cost a lot more than a few dollars in year four.

Defensive innings - am I counting wrong to think that 630/8.5 = 74 or half a season and that’s close enough to 250 PA for the purposes of this discussion?  Of course there’s the platoon issue (though if I remember correctly his splits aren’t bad and it’s less relevant if his defense is actually really good), but then he also gets an age boost, maybe no broken thumb period and steady playing time.  And note that I didn’t say I expect him to be 4 WAR/y - that’s a good scenario for him in my view, but not a wow one.  I’d like to find out what the situation looks like in another half season.

“Please define several”

Do you think three isn’t several?

Several:
“2 a : more than one <several pleas> b : more than two but fewer than many <moved several inches>”

In any case I had three in mind.  Maybe “a few” would be more in tune with standard usage, I don’t know.

When does he start earning real money?  And if he does so in this scenario, then don’t I get to count him as a type A and calculate the high draft pick against his salary?

Do you think three isn’t several?

Lighten up.  Several is a word that people tend to use rather loosely.  I just wanted to know whether you meant 2-3 or 5-6.  I guess I should have asked you to be more specific about “few dollars” too.  Melky made $1.4M in his first arb year coming off a season that had a lot of people thinking he couldn’t play in MLB anymore.  He’ll make ~$3M in his second arb year, after a solid season that was still far short of star-level.  Now maybe that’s what you had in mind for “few dollars” but one man’s cheap is another man’s “dump him for a guy making the minimum and use the $3M to pay for 20% of a top FA.”  But my point was simply that if a guy puts up 4+ WAR in his cheap years, he stops being cheap.  And a lot of people talk as if good players are cheap for six years when they’re really only cheap for two or three.

And as for Gardner’s specific status, he’s got 1 year and 72 days of MLB service.  So barring any more minor league time, he’s renewable for 2010 and 2011, and arb eligible for 2012-2014.  I think it’s a bit premature to talk about his FA status.

As for the defensive innings, my point was not about what fraction of a season 630 represents, but rather that Gardner was used as a PR/defensive replacement, and therefore accrued defensive and baserunning value in games where he did not accrue batting value.  Even if the percentages of full-time play are similar, it’s still a mistake to assume that all of the components of a player’s value will increase linearly with more playing time.  Hitting may improve with more reps or decline with over-exposure.  Defense might improve with more familiarity with opposing hitters and parks, or decline if a player wears down or loses focus playing every day for six months.  Hell, as SG has reminded us repeatedly, defense can “improve” or “decline” based on BIP distribution. Anyway, that was just a general point and not a specific criticism of Brett Gardner or any other actual player.

“Do you think three isn’t several?”

“Lighten up.  Several is a word that people tend to use rather loosely.”

No lightening needed on my side - you could have started with, “That’s ok if several is three here but not four” or whatever you claim is - if I’d meant e.g. four I would have said so, but I’m weak on this contract stuff so I went with vague, and if three’s ok I don’t see the “define this common word” request, which in my book anyway is a less than entirely polite way of saying, “what do you mean by ‘x’ in this context?”.  And did you not notice ‘Maybe “a few” would be more in tune with standard usage, I don’t know.’?  Anyway.

“it’s still a mistake to assume that all of the components of a player’s value will increase linearly with more playing time”

This seems like a useful point to me, but absent a sense of the expected nonlinearity I don’t see why I shouldn’t go with the first order effect for an estimate about what’s not even the central value under discussion per CAIRO.

Thanks for the info about Gardner’s contract - so it’s more like he’s free for two years, then if he’s 4 WAR/y he’ll start costing money (though surely nothing like the $15 or whatever Fangraphs would assign, given he won’t be hitting HRs etc.).  I think the FA point still stands though for this calculation, since getting there is already accounted for.