Pretty interesting.  I think you are correct about Yankee Stadium having a tough Left Field, you hear about it all the time.  It would be interesting to see if any player that has played a significant amount of games in Yankee Stadium Left Field actually has a better Zone Rating at Yankee Stadium then their home ball park or other ball parks they play many games in.  For example Manny’s(not that he is superb fielder to begin with)stats over a few years.

As for the Yankees being a better fielding team on the road?  Some people athletes / teams tend to do better on the road i guess (Cano, NY Football Giants).

Left field at Yankee Stadium is still living off it’s reputation from the Death Valley days.  It’s really not that big a piece of real estate anymore since they moved the fences in back in 1988.  A quick scan of the awesome site linked below shows that about half of all AL parks have LFs as big or bigger.  I’ll be interested in seeing splits from previous seasons if and when you get them, but right now this looks like a sample size fluke to me.

http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/

Oh and BTW, Manny’s not a good example to look at for Home road fielding splits, because of the Fenway LF factor that confounds all zone based fielding metrics.  Apparently, a good number of unplayable fly balls that hit the wall are counted as balls in zone, which makes Manny look even worse at home than he actually is.  I’ve never understood what would be so hard about simply not counting those hits, but what do I know?

It would be interesting to see if any player that has played a significant amount of games in Yankee Stadium Left Field actually has a better Zone Rating at Yankee Stadium then their home ball park or other ball parks they play many games in.

I tried something else.  Here’s the zone rating data for every AL LF except Matsui:

<u>Yankee Stadium</u>
Chances: 411
Plays Made: 324
ZR: .788

<u>Other Stadiums</u>
Chances: 4772
Plays Made: 4146
ZR: .862

The difference between an .862 and a .788 zone rating over a full season for a single player would be around 27 plays.  That’s a pretty big difference.

Left field at Yankee Stadium is still living off it’s reputation from the Death Valley days.  It’s really not that big a piece of real estate anymore since they moved the fences in back in 1988.  A quick scan of the awesome site linked below shows that about half of all AL parks have LFs as big or bigger.

I think there’s more to it than size of field.  It may be more difficult to read the ball off the bat there, or in the lights.  Or it could always be random fluctuation.  More data would be a big help in analyzing this.

I’ll be interested in seeing splits from previous seasons if and when you get them, but right now this looks like a sample size fluke to me.

I don’t see it happening, no one recorded it anywhere and when I asked STATS about getting that data they said it would cost thousands.  Maybe I should take up a collection…

I’ve never understood what would be so hard about simply not counting those hits, but what do I know?

It makes zero sense.  I’ve got Manny as a -13 defender on the road and a -72 at home.  This is a big flaw in zone-based metrics.

Here’s another interesting point from Hardball times: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2007/

Matsui ranks as having an above-average arm in LF (6th in the league). I always remember him having a quick release with no power behind it (and I thought it has regressed some recently). However, it seems to be good enough out there to still get the job done.

“The difference between an .862 and a .788 zone rating over a full season for a single player would be around 27 plays.  That’s a pretty big difference.”  Thanks SG. 

I agree with you, there is more to it than the size on Yankee Stadium’s Left Field.  For day games (the few there are) the sun plays a huge factor in left.  Also the Halo alignment of the lights at Yankee Stadium vs. the stanchion alignment at most other stadiums guarantees that any high fly ball will pass through the lights, where as in other parks not all balls pass through the direct lights.  This has to have some effect on picking up the ball, making fielders a step slower.

As for the Fenway Rule I wasn’t aware of that and would never have expected it; that is just awful.  Who needs to be contacted so we can explain to them that it is impossible to catch a ball that hits a wall 20ft off the ground?

SG or Fabian, do you have any thoughts on Heath Phillips as a left handed relief option?  it’s probably hard to get minor league splits so he may be hard to project, but i was wondering if this guy has any chance to win that role.

his minor league numbers are decent, but are mostly as a starter.  still, he’s fairly young and left handed.  i don’t see how he could be worse than Henn.

I can do an MLE and relief conversion for Phillips, but I’d like to see a scouting report on him.  River Avenue Blues said he has a 88-90 mph fastball and big hook I think.  Seems like he might be worth a shot.

I think there’s more to it than size of field.

Of course this is true.  But I think Joey’s over-rating the importance of the light alignment.  It’s not like there are lights directly behind home plate, which is what it would take to “guarantee that any fly ball will pass through the lights.”  OTOH, the overall quality of the lighting will certainly have an impact on fielding.  Shea has horrible outfield lighting, for example.  Anyway, how do the day/night splits look?

Who needs to be contacted so we can explain to them that it is impossible to catch a ball that hits a wall 20ft off the ground?

The people who collect the data are well aware of the issue.  I think it just comes down to the philosophical problem with saying that some balls in play aren’t really in play.  Then again, there certainly are other balls in play that aren’t in any particular fielder’s zone.  So again, what do I know?

This jives with my impression that Matsui is essentially average on defense (trending downward with age of course). 

Fenway is obviously a problem when it comes to rating LFers.  Or rather, not properly adjusting for the Monster is the problem.

really, your impression is that Matsui is average?

i’m not picking on you, i’m just surprised.

my impression is that he is terrible.

my impression is that he is terrible

That would be mine as well.  I think when he FIRST came over to the Yankees, he was around average, but he’s definitely slipped a lot since then.  I’d be comfortable playing him there occasionally, say if Wang is pitching and they want to give Damon the day off.  But I don’t think he should be out there more than occasionally.

It gets late early out there.

True MC, without the lights behind home plate not every ball goes through the lights, nice pick up.  It just always seemed to me that the lights at Yankee Stadium and as you point out Shea are not an advantage over the normal stadium stanchion lights.  I don’t know if they are a disadvantage but I am making that assumption.  The angle of the lights, foot candle, temperature, etc also has to factor in.  An outfielder would obviously be the person that can best answer this. 

“The people who collect the data are well aware of the issue.  I think it just comes down to the philosophical problem with saying that some balls in play aren’t really in play.”

I understand that, but saying a ball high off the monster is in a player’s zone is so ridiculous that it should be changed.  I don’t understand what the issue would be with correcting obvious problems such as that.  I mean Manny’s fall off at home is absurd, and it really skews the stat to the point that we can’t tell by ZONE how good of a fielder Manny is at home, or overall for that matter.

I understand that, but saying a ball high off the monster is in a player’s zone is so ridiculous that it should be changed.  I don’t understand what the issue would be with correcting obvious problems such as that.

It would make bad fielders look good and good fielders look great.

  I think it just comes down to the philosophical problem with saying that some balls in play aren’t really in play.

Doesn’t zone rating only count balls that “an average fielder would get at least 50% of the time”?  This is why the total league-wide DER is around .690 but the cumulative zone ratings (weighted average) is higher than that at .821 (these are 2006).  Zone rating doesn’t take into account the screaming ground ball directly between SS and 3B, because even Inspector Gadget arms couldn’t get to it.  At least, that’s my understanding, I could be wrong.  If that’s the case, why should the Monster be any different?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-stats-at-the-hardball-times/

I still need to get that html tag thing down.

It would make bad fielders look good and good fielders look great.

Well, the current situation makes good fielders look bad and bad fielders look horrible.

I see your point, though.  So obviously someone needs to develop position-specific defensive park factors.  Then we can move from ZR to ZR+.  You know anybody working on something like that?

“It would make bad fielders look good and good fielders look great.”

Yeah but still, you shouldn’t punish a fielder becasue he plays in a bandbox.  And anyway a fielder will look better if he can get to more balls in a smaller stadium.  I cannot see any way of justifying a 59 point drop off for Manny at Fenway, because balls that are impossible to field are counted.  I guess they would have to rate each stadium differently to allow for the adjustment.

Doesn’t zone rating only count balls that “an average fielder would get at least 50% of the time”?...If that’s the case, why should the Monster be any different?

I think they don’t consider park, so that balls off the Green Monster that would be outs in any other stadium are being treated the same.  It seems so obviously silly but there it is.

I see your point, though.  So obviously someone needs to develop position-specific defensive park factors.  Then we can move from ZR to ZR+.  You know anybody working on something like that?

Sean Smith did some preliminary work on this, Finally, the park factors.  If I can collect a few more years of split data we may be able to retroactively go back and “fix” ZR through 1987.

really, your impression is that Matsui is average?
...
my impression is that he is terrible.

Of course, left field is one of the places where you try to hide a solid bat who can’t catch the ball too good.  My impression is that on average, left fielders are terrible.

Yeah, that’s what I mean.  I think he’s roughly average *for a leftfielder*  Left fielders generally speaking aren’t great defenders.

In that context, Matsui strikes me as basically average.  Removing the context, I’ll agree that he looks like he takes some poor routes, has meh range, and obviously his arm strength isn’t much to write home about.  The last bit is somewhat countered by the much-lampooned quick release and accuracy.

Whether home or away, Matsui is best suited for DH.

When you have multiple players who are best suited for DH, some of them will have to pick up a glove on occasion.

or get traded for a shiny new starting pitcher….

...unless they all have bloated contracts with blanket no-trade clauses.

You can also try to trade them for prospects who need TJ surgery.

“Yankee Stadium
Chances: 411
Plays Made: 324
ZR: .788

Other Stadiums
Chances: 4772
Plays Made: 4146
ZR: .862”

SG, here you’re comparing LFs away to LFs about 50% at home.  I don’t know what the knowing-the-home-field effect is, if any, but it would be interesting to compare away fielding only to YS fielding.

Also note that the RMS on 324 gives 0.788 +/- 0.044.  I get 1.6 sigma for the difference in the comparison above.

Very nerdy thread today except for Frog’s Yogi quote.
Enjoyable as usual. You lads get me to thinking after a long day at the salt mine.

Rosenthal says yankees are interested in bringing in Cameron, and trading Melky either for Johan or even elsewhere:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7659616

I like Cameron, but would rather see Melky move to LF, with Damon being shipped off instead.  Or even Damon to 1st.

Has anyone heard from IE? I hope we don’t have to do a Bay of El Duque’s and rescue his Beard.

“I like Cameron, but would rather see Melky move to LF, with Damon being shipped off instead.  Or even Damon to 1st.”

I don’t think Melky has much value in left. His bat would certainly be quite a bit below average. However, I also think he might be just as valuable as Cameron next year. Cameron will be 35 and is coming off a 103 OPS+ year. He’s probably still fairly good in the field, but at this age, maybe not much better than Melky.

I’m guessing the Yankees are thinking that, for the next two years, Cameron will provide about as much value as Melky, they’ll get at least one very good/excellent prospect for trading Melky, and they’re banking that Austin Jackson will be ready once Cameron’s contract is done ... While I’d like to see Melky stay in a Yankee uniform, it’s not a bad move, as long as Cameron stays healthy, never a great bet in his age 35/36/37 years (I’m guessing three-year contract, maybe two).

On second thought, Cameron seems more durable than I remember ...

And kronic, I’d like to get rid of Damon (and his salary) too, but his value is at a low, and it’d be tough to move that contract. If they could do that and get one or two good prospects out of the deal, while getting to keep Melky in CF, I’d be happy.

http://www.waswatching.com/

I was pretty surprised at what Kennedy had to say there. In wanting to make a point about the Mitchell Report not being the all-inclusive bible of naming PED users, Kevin Kennedy said that a current colleague of his, who was with the Boston Red Sox in 2004, told him that he (the colleague) witnessed, for a fact, a member of the ‘04 Red Sox injecting himself in the buttocks with a needle full of PEDs. Kennedy said that the user is no longer a member of the Red Sox - but, he was a player on the team that won the ring in 2004. As per Kennedy, his colleague said that the “user” was giving a demo (to the “colleague”) on how to do the injection.

Considering that the Yanks’ offense was so much better on the road last year, I find it funny that Wang should have so much better an era at home when his brand of pitching so particularly relies on the defense.

I’m a big fan of Mike Cameron, but if you’re looking for defense, I think you’re better served leaving Melky where he is.  That is unless he’s shipped to Minny.  Melky is pretty sick out there.  In my opinion, the Yanks are currently sitting on one of the top defensive center fielders in the game in Melky.  And we all know they don’t need offense.

Who above said their general impression is that left fielders are terrible?  I mean, that’s why they’re in left field.  And hey, at least you can say that Matsui makes the effort and the occasional spectacular play in which his concentration makes up for what, his lack of speed? poor instincts? whatever it is that makes him so bad.

I know this shouldn’t matter that much for a multi-year contract, but Cameron’s 25 game suspension kind of puts a damper on his signing.  He also strikes out A TON.  160 K’s last year.  I don’t know that my blood pressure could handle that.

Cameron a bridge to Jackson makes a lot of sense, I think, and it probably IS smart to trade Melky before the bloom fades a bit (he’ll be perfectly fine for the Yankees, too, but I think right now he might be seen as more than “perfectly fine”).

Who above said their general impression is that left fielders are terrible?  I mean, that’s why they’re in left field.

Umm… that’s what we said: “...left field is one of the places where you try to hide a solid bat who can’t catch the ball too good…”

Peter Abraham is reporting that the Yankees have signed Jason Lane to a minor league deal.  Although he can play all three OF positions and would possibly be the best defensive OFer on the team (even if Cabrera stays or Cameron is signed), they apparently want to throw him into the 1B mix.  I guess that makes him Shelley Duncan insurance.

I’ve seen some speculation that Cabrera might be traded to Pittsburgh for Damaso Marte.  It seems to just be coming from fans, so I wouldn’t even call it a bona fide rumor.  But I’d still be interested in what folks here would think of that.

I don�t know what the knowing-the-home-field effect is, if any, but it would be interesting to compare away fielding only to YS fielding.

This is odd.  All AL LF, home and road splits:
<u>Home</u>
Innings: 10305
Plays Made: 2238
Chances: 2607
Zone Rating: .858
Difference: -8

<u>Road</u>
Innings: 9772
Plays Made: 2207
Chances: 2550
Zone Rating: .865
Difference: 8

I’d have thought home fielding would be better in LF, although the difference is not really statistically significant.  So it does look like Yankee Stadium LF was tougher than average in 2007 and there’s no home/road reason for it.

SG, could it be that it’s not the same players?  For example, is the home team less likely to make late-inning defensive substitutions, and would that amount to enough innings to matter?

Or maybe sigma is 8 runs.

Thurm, I wasn’t quoting Yogi, I was channeling Yogi.

Or maybe sigma is 8 runs

Yeah, I think that’s all it is.  RMS on 2220 chances or so is around 47, so .858 to .865 difference isn’t really that meaningful.

When I looked at offense and a generic home/road split, I found a consistent 10% better performance at home regardless of park factor.  I’d have expected to see something similar on defense, although maybe this is just a LF issue.

If this Marte rumor is in fact true, I would like to see it happen. They could use the additional bullpen help and also potentially stick Cameron in CF. Yet, there’s still the question about Cameron’s first 25 days and who will play CF during that time.

For the first 25 days, you play Damon in CF, Matsui in LF, Lane as their backup, and Giambi as the DH. 

Home teams win more than road teams, so home teams should have the lead late in games more than road teams.  Thus, more defensive replacements.  right?

...unless they all have bloated contracts with blanket no-trade clauses.

First of all, that was a well played retort. But when will the yankees learn that if they are going to outspend everyone to hire free agents, it’s kind of bullshit to give away blanket NTC’s as well. The choice should be money, or security. Not both.

Take that Cashman!

I have no problem with Lane on the Yankees, he’s good defensively and projects fairly well as a part time player in Cairo.

If he hits .275 instead of .250 by playing regularly, and his OBP goes up accordingly, he’s not hurting the team. He’s probably a more useful player than Melky, and they picked him up sans hype. I wonder if people were down on him because he’s simply forgotten how to hit, or if he’s a steroid candidate. On paper, he certainly seems like the type of AAAA guy they’ve been talking about, and he did have that one Brady Anderson (for him) type big year.

What I would really like is for them to address their needs in OF/1B/DH with a couple moves that are more planned out than what they’ve done the last few years i.e. hiring or calling up a multitude of players with no one getting chances but overpaid vets.

Rosenthal and Olney are both saying that Cameron has signed with Milwaukee.

nice Lohud shoutout

[Deleted by request - SG]

Actually, SG, can you delete 49?  Don’t want to start a flame war.

First of all, that was a well played retort. But when will the yankees learn that if they are going to outspend everyone to hire free agents, it’s kind of bullshit to give away blanket NTC’s as well. The choice should be money, or security. Not both.

well Damon doesn’t have a blanket NTC.  and Giambi is 10-5 anyway.

Matsui has a NTC, and that was probably a mistake.

Frog: I chaneled #5 with the Yogster once. He told me nobody went to my favorite restaurant any longer because it was too crowded.
Man’s an effin genius.

Wow. Just went to the Lohud fanbase posts for the first time.
Deep thoughts.
Kinda made me feel like Bugs Bunny watching Elmer shooting into the hollowed-out tree.
Wascally Wabbits.

Off-topic:  MLB is creating its own “Dept. of Investigations”.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080111&content_id=2343864&vkey=news_mlb&fext;=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Reminds me of that moment in Fletch:  “Thank god, the police.”