Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Hardball Times: Mahnken: Why the Yankees will win the World Series
Still, I expect the Yankees to prevail. There is so much front-line talent complemented by so much depth that the Yankees need a lot to go wrong for them to be defeated. This is the team that the Yankees have tried to put together since tearing apart the core of the late ‘90s teams after the 2001 World Series. This is more or less the roster that Brian Cashman wanted to put together after taking total control of the front office in 2005. They’re four wins away from reaching that goal they’ve chased for almost a decade. They’re the best team in baseball, and they have seven more games to prove it.
Some dude named Larry gives his World Series preview over at the Hardball Times.
Comments
First!
[From the last post:] Damon looks like a right-handed fielder who for some reason is playing with a right-handed glove and throwing with the wrong hand. It appears to require his total concentration just to make the most routine catches and throws.
Some weather NYC is having, ain’t it?
I’ve just read through a Phillies site and can confirm they have the same douche level as the Angels stuff I was reading. Now that my hatred is where it should be, let’s play ball!
Agreed with the thoughts from the previous thread on a 4 game stress free sweep being the preference. That probably wont matter as it will either be “the Philadelphias” in two or three according to completely unbiased baseball analyst, and physical fitness enthusiast, John Kruk.
And yes, Kruk did call them “the Philadelphias” on their WS preview show.
[2] or a merman.
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You didn’t give the number.
If I had cable, I’d probably watch more ESPN. As I don’t, things take care of themselves.
You know, I’m really really really really really tired of people using 2000 or 2001 as the cutoff of when the Yankees were last a truly great team. Talk about selective memory—the 2002 roster was the second best team of the Joe Torre era, they just happened to run into the steamroller that was the 2002 Angels at the wrong time. And the 2003 team did actually make it to the World Series.
It was the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, and the sacrificing of Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera to obtain Javier Vazquez, and the ludicrous belief that Jeff Weaver was an improvement on Ted Lilly, that started the downward slide, IMO.
Some dude named Larry gives his World Series preview over at the Hardball Times.
He predicted the Yankees to win? That dude’s crazy.
He predicted the Yankees to win? That dude’s crazy.
I thought the consensus was that the Angels would take it all, or Boston would, or last resort, play the game the right way, super bunting pitcher league Phillies. Aren’t those three teams going to be share as the World Series champs?
[11] You forgot the expertly-managed Dodgers.
“It was the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, and the sacrificing of Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera to obtain Javier Vazquez, and the ludicrous belief that Jeff Weaver was an improvement on Ted Lilly, that started the downward slide, IMO.”
So true. The Yankees did a reasonable job maintaining a championship-level offense during the down years, but it has taken them years to finally fill the holes that the Rocket and Andy created when they left. Randy Johnson was no longer an ace whenthe Yankees got him, and let’s not even get into the whole Pavano thing.
[9] B-b-b-but Buster Olney told me that the year 2001 was teh nite the Yankees dynasty ended!!!11!
I always though Cash took too much shit for signing Pavano. They were desperate for starters and everyone wanted him.
[9] & [13]
The hits to the rotation were most of it, but the decline and fall of the defense was also part of it. I wonder if some of the pitching decisions would’ve worked out a bit better if the D had been good, instead of bottoming out as the worst in baseball in 2005 or so. Javier Vasquez, while not the ACE the team needed, is a good pitcher. He went to the AS game that year. Then he had a brutal 2nd half and poor performance in the playoffs so they trade him. That was a bigger mistake than trading for him in the first place, by a country mile, IMO.
Pavano was a poor bet, but not as bad in my opinion as signing Jared Wright. That was staggeringly bad. Ditto Kyle Farnsworth. Karsay was a better idea, but within the same general category of “do not pay big money to relievers unless they’re Mo.” I also HATED the trade for RJ, from the beginning. He outperformed my expectations the first year (playoffs excepted) and was right in line with them in year 2.
Good moves from that era, IMO: Mussina, Vasquez (good idea, didn’t work), Tom Gordon (he was really good, but gassed by the playoffs), Jon Lieber.
16, I’m glad Vasquez got gone, he might have been around +/- average, but the Yankees were expecting something more, and Vasquez ain’t someone to give a lax leash on.
That said, the experiments after he left was really unfortunate, though the brief valley might be worth it depending on how well the lessons were learned. Like, how this year continues.
Can we nix-ay on the pre-2009 talk? It’s Verasing depressing.
Says the guy after he finishes talking about pre-2009
Wow…going to the rally in Time Square was basically a total bust.
Now I’m soaked at the office and got to see Bloomberg/Kay/Sterling talk for about five combined minutes. I feel decidedly less “pepped”.
Keith Law after picking Yankees said the main thing they have to worry about, besides Girardi, is AJ’s propensity to allow big innings.
Those post 2001 teams also seem to me to have either been a bit too old, or a bit too unlucky. The offense kinda fell off the table in key spots. I just remember whatever year it was that the Tigers knocked us off with Kenny Pine Tar Rogers completely mystifying our lineup, thinking “how can this be happening?”
I joked about hoping Molina gets 6 or so at bats per game during the prior league series. With Girardi’s genius managing, I’m kinda really dreading the going into extra innings 6 or so at bats per game from Molina now.
Like Joe Saunders with the ERA+ of 99 this year throwing 7 IP, 2 ER vs us this year? Anything can happen in one game.
AJ vs. their lefties in the first inning at DNYS terrifies me.
Saunders was hurt earlier in the year and good late in the season though, wasn’t he?
5.04 ERA from July on, which is already a small sample. He did finish the year strong though. Still, I think my point stands. It’s not inconceivable that Joe Blanton or Pedro throws a great game, because it’s just one game.
RAB [rather skeptically] says Carroll says that Robertson need shoulder surgery. I couldn’t read the BP article.
“Still, I think my point stands.”
Sure, there are just more canonical examples out there, not that any pop to mind.
Yeah. I seem to remember Paul Byrd shutting them down, but that was only for 5 innings.
[27] So actual knowledge or reporting of hearsay/guessing? I’m starting to feel queasy.
Sure, there are just more canonical examples out there, not that any pop to mind.
Johnny Podres?
Jose Contreras… sigh.
Heck, there’s Don Larsen.
Apparently Larsen was good that year though.
Also, wikipedia says:
The Larsen start was a slight surprise considering his performance in Game 2 of the Series. Despite being given a 6-0 lead by the Yankee batters, Larsen had lasted less than two innings, allowing four runs on four walks (and a crucial error by first-baseman Joe Collins). Larsen maintains that he did not even know he was going to start the fifth game of the World Series until he arrived at Yankee Stadium that morning and discovered a baseball tucked inside his baseball spikes, although newspapers across the country had him listed as the starter that day. Fifty years later, teammate Moose Skowron recalled, “I couldn’t believe he was pitching that day. I still can’t believe the look he had on his face when he saw the ball… shock or something.”
Brian Bruney, eh? Ok…
Bruney is there for bullpen security. Literally.
It’s rough in the Philly stands.
“It was the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, and the sacrificing of Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera to obtain Javier Vazquez, and the ludicrous belief that Jeff Weaver was an improvement on Ted Lilly, that started the downward slide, IMO.”
So true. The Yankees did a reasonable job maintaining a championship-level offense during the down years, but it has taken them years to finally fill the holes that the Rocket and Andy created when they left. Randy Johnson was no longer an ace whenthe Yankees got him, and let’s not even get into the whole Pavano thing.
What was the name of that Olney book? The Last night of the Yankee Dynasty?
Wouldn’t it be funny if core four were able to win one more and make him revise his title? The AL championship just won really renders it inaccurate already.
I thought the way to Girardi-proof overmanaging of bullpen arms was to carry less bullpen arms. I have a hard time understanding what 12 pitchers do in a regular season roster, and I am shocked to see 12 pitchers in a post-season roster.
I mean, he is going to go to Mariano for the most number of outs among his bullpen arms, right? And then the rest of the guys has to be Joba, Phil, Robertson, in some order, right?
[39] Joba seems to be the go to guy for the “bridge”. But who knows who he’ll bring in? You can’t predict baseball, after all. I’d like to see someone try…
The AL championship just won really renders it inaccurate already.
The AL championship won in 2003 had already rendered it inaccurate.
[39] You’re forgetting the whole LOOGY/ROOGY thing. You just know we’re going to see a Marte/Bruney/Coke/Chamberlain progression at some point.
Maybe they really are going to go with an all BP game or will if a rain out forces the need for a 4th starter? Think how much Girardi would love that. He could use 10 pitchers (assuming the entire pen + a starter on their throw day) in one game! He would get to come to the mound and signal to the bullpen 9 times!
[43] hence, my favorite name for him, “Panicky Idiot #27”.
In my opinion the starting rotation is what submarined the Yankees in 2004-2007. Once Clemens/Pettitte/Wells were gone, you had these huge question marks pitching huge elimination playoff games. Kevin Brown in Game 7 against the Red Sox. Jaret Wright in Game 4 against the Tigers. Sometimes it worked out (Shawn Chacon beat the Angels in Game 4 of the 2005 ALDS, and Hughes bailed out an ineffective Clemens in Game 3 of the 2007 ALDS). But the main difference between then and the 1996-2003 teams, is that you never had a big playoff game where you thought, “Jesus Christ, our playoff lives depend on *him*?”
Also, I think Girardi’s main strength over Torre is his usage of the bullpen. Every year with Torre was the same—he’d use the same 2-3 of relievers throughout the season and they’d all be gassed by the playoffs. Girardi does a much better job spreading the work around and developing all those bullpen arms throughout the season.
Didn’t Torre mismanage the pen in 04 using Gordon in a blowout as I remember.
I am a fan of Girardi’s BP management during the season when it is important to spread the workload around. However, I dont agree that it is a necessity in the postseason.
He has made sure to get the max out of Mo, which is awesome, but everything else is head-scratching. Why not trust the guy who K’s the most per inning in the AL? Who so much trust in Joba? What is in that binder?
[27] But, it was Robertson’s elbow, not shoulder, that was hurt, no? Gosh, if he’s pitching with a bum elbow AND shoulder and STILL getting guys out, power to him! ![]()
[40] And on that topic, let us all hope that perhaps Joe gets over his “Joba as 1st RHP out of the pen” love.
“He has made sure to get the max out of Mo, which is awesome, but everything else is head-scratching. Why not trust the guy who K’s the most per inning in the AL? Who so much trust in Joba? What is in that binder? “
I’d be more sympathetic to this argument if Girardi’s “overmanagement” had actually resulted in postseason losses instead of (so far) postseason wins. Arguably, the biggest mistake he’s made this postseason was in UNDER-managing Game 5 of the ALCS.
What is in that binder?
Stuff about East River’s tidal flow, high/low tides, mercury contamination, you know, the usual stuff.
Should Yanks pitch all 3 main guys on 3 days rest or give Andy a/o AJ only one start? Perhaps they could use Andy out of the BP in games 6 or 7 if needed.
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
Again, if they can bang out 10 runs, Girardi can bring in Gaudin to face Howard for all I care.
You just know we’re going to see a Marte/Bruney/Coke/Chamberlain progression at some point.
and if we are lucky they will fill up an entire inning.
Hey, I’m curious, are any NYers here in the habit of watching games in bars? (Only sometimes, obviously, or you wouldn’t be on the game threads all the time.)
Which are your favorites? Me, I prefer a low-key joint that’s not a real sports bar. I don’t need giant screens and I don’t like places packed with meatheads. I do want the game sound on, though (as opposed to music). Most of my favorite places shut down in the last few years. I still hit Malachy’s on W72nd with my friends sometimes.
Riviera on Sheridan Sq except lots of Sawx fans hang out there
I like Stout, right near MSG. It is a “sports bar” but a bit nicer than most. Had part of my bachelor’s party there in a private room downstairs.
We should seriously take a pole and see who we think wins it all.
I agree with 56, except it can get a little too crowded for me (i.e. don’t go there during the big east tournament)
The red flag that they may have ignored on Vazquez is that he led the NL in abuse points in 2003.
“Should Yanks pitch all 3 main guys on 3 days rest or give Andy a/o AJ only one start? Perhaps they could use Andy out of the BP in games 6 or 7 if needed.”
I say all 3 on short rest. Otherwise, just use Joba in game 4. To me the advantage of CC on 3 days rest twice, vs. CC once on full-rest (and available in the pen for G’s 6-7) and Pettitte once, is just not that big.
“I joked about hoping Molina gets 6 or so at bats per game during the prior league series. With Girardi’s genius managing, I’m kinda really dreading the going into extra innings 6 or so at bats per game from Molina now. “
I think dropping Cervelli means Molina doesn’t start at all.
The Good Phight and Beerleaguer are both ok.
Foley’s on 33rd b/t 5th and 6th is shockingly decent (and a favorite of Swisher’s). Cheap beers, game audio, not too crowded (surprising, given the proximity to the Empire State Building) and very cheap beer.
Will Carroll is the meathead who told us Pete Rose had been reinstated.
Speaking of meatheads, Francesa just said that a former reliever (who he won’t name) told him that he think that the moment is becoming too big for Hughes and that is affecting his command.
[64] I guarantee you that’s Gossage.
Or Flash Gordon.
[64] I guarantee you that’s Gossage.
Or Flash Gordon.
I’m assuming Franco, cause the Mets are good for nothings. Except Cone. And Strawberry. And Gooden when he tosses no hitters.
I think dropping Cervelli means Molina doesn’t start at all.
I was referring when Girardi lifts Po in the 6th for a pinch runner. It could happen, that’s the thing.
As dumb as Olney’s book was, I think it’s fair enough to say that 2001 was the last year of that particular Yankee era.
2001 was the last year for Tino, O’Neill, Knoblauch and Brosius. Not to mention that they brought Velarde and Hitchcock back that year seemingly to get each of them a shot at getting a title as a Yankee.
So his premise that the dynasty ended there was dumb, but I think it’s fair to say that that particular era ended there.
Well, in strictly technical terms a dynasty is a run of consecutive championships. In that sense, Olney’s title is 100 percent accurate.
Next entry: Phillies (93-69) @ Yankees (103-59), Wednesday, October 28, 2009, 7:57pm **Game Chatter**
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