“consistently caused dramatic improvements to his squads immediately upon arrival by pushing them hard”

Is that it?  Or was he brought in as part of rebuilding programs?

Teams didn’t hire Billy Martin as part of a rebuilding program.  They brought him in to kick ass and take names.  And it usually worked.  But not for very long.

I’m a bit surprised to learn that there were teams which strongly underperformed due to lack of effort or whatever - is it thought that there are still such teams?

Billy Martin reminds me a lot of Ozzie Guillen.  Took over the struggling and mediocre White Sox.  In a few years took them to the World Series.  Had a few more years of success and the last 2 years has really done quite poorly and there has been a lot of disfunction.

Why does it surprise you that a team might become complacent and respond positively to a change in leadership style?

There were other things going on in most of those situations to be sure.  With Oakland, the arrival of a whole slew of good young pitchers coincided with Martin’s own arrival.  He road them like rented mules and got credit for turning a bad team around while the pitchers paid the price.  In Minnesota, a lot of the turnaround can be attributed to the start of divisional play—the 1969 AL West was comprised of two expansion teams and four teams that finished in the lower half of the league in 1968.  The Twins dominated their division and were pretty much a .500 team against the east.  They got swept by the Orioles in the inaugural ALCS.

Rosters were not as fluid in Martin’s time, so a lot of times it wasn’t so much about rebuilding as it was about how the players were used.  Pushing them hard wasn’t necessarily just motivation, Martin also tended to use his best players more often.  He was notorious for how hard he worked his starting pitchers especially.

One extreme example.  In 1979, Rick Langford threw 218 innings in 34 games (29 starts), with 14 CGs.  This was under Jim Marshall.  The following season, under Martin he threw 290 innings in 35 games (33 starts) with 28 CGs. 

Actually, that’s not even as bad as what Martin did with Mike Norris.  Norris threw 148 innings at age 24, then threw 280 innings the very next season with 24 CGs.

The usage differences between the 1979 and 1980 A’s are a pretty good example of what Martin was known for doing.

I guess that’s how you take a 54 win team to 83 wins in one season though.

“Why does it surprise you that a team might become complacent”

I resist it for individuals, e.g. Cano, out of naivete or whatever.  The idea being that almost anyone who makes the majors is self-driven.  I would think that was even truer back when salaries weren’t exorbitant or anyway so large.

“Pushing them hard wasn’t necessarily just motivation”

Ok.

I guess I wonder about confirmation bias - if Martin got a reputation as a resurrectionist, he might have gotten hired in situations where a team underperformed due to a statistical fluctuation and looked good when the dice bounced less unfavorably.  I suppose the run differentials make that less likely, but still it would be interesting to compare e.g. CAIRO to actual for those teams before Martin started.

I believe Martin would have reacted violently to Joba Rules.

I can only imagine what Martin would have said if his GM laid down the “X Rules” with X being the name of some young starting pitcher.

He wasn’t afraid of letting Rickey Henderson go nuts on the basepaths.  Luckily for Rickey, his legs held up better than the arms of some of Martin’s starting pitchers.

Martin also tended to use his best players more often.

And Martin’s decisions about who were the best players were sometimes quite different from those of his predecessors.  So I guess Billy also deserves at least some credit for being a better judge of talent than some of his peers.

[6, 9]  Actually, in his way, Martin was vaguely capable of NOT ruining a pitcher’s career.  In 1977 Martin inserted a skinny 26 year-old lefty prospect in the starting rotation; the pitcher performed excellently and was probably the team’s most effective starter.  Martin “only” pushed him to 210 IP.  The following year this pitcher was simply otherworldly, and Martin got 273 IP out of him. The pitcher continued to excel for another 7 years.

And sure, Ron Guidry had some injury problems in 1979, and beyond, and was pretty much done at 35.  But I don’t think there was a manager in baseball who would have held Guidry back in 1977-8 significantly more than Martin did.

[12] This post, except for the IP #s, is totally POOMA.  So if you want to look at Guidry’s individual games and contradict my point that Billy was being slightly careful, go ahead.  And, yes, for course, Bob Lemon managed the team for the last two months of ‘78.

[12] The key is 26 year old. At that point, generally, pitchers can be expected to go 210 IP. Or so say the modern researchers.

Should Guidry have been starting at e.g. 25?

[14] Sure, but he wasn’t run out there for 280.

[15] Maybe, but I think the story goes that he kept getting pounded, even as late as spring training ‘76.  Supposedly other teams kept asking for him in trades and George kept seeing him get lit up and it was everything the GM could do to keep George from dumping him.

[17] Spring training ‘77, not ‘76.

Guidry didn’t make his first start of 1977 until April 29.  He threw nine complete games and pitched eight innings or more 7 other times.  Martin wasn’t exactly being gentle with the kid.  Now, obviously, 1977 didn’t hurt Guidry.  But Martin pretty much destroyed his arm in 1985.

Guidry most definitely should not have been starting at 25.  He hadn’t learned the slider yet.  He sucked.

[11] What made him rely on Shooty Babbit?

In other managerial news, Mike Scoscscia had this to say recently, “I don’t care if the Yankees go out and spend $350 million next year, we’re going to beat them because we have the team.”

Suck it, Scoscscscscia!

““That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said.”

I love this guy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/sports/baseball/18pitcher.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Blowhard Posnanski is going to wet himself when he sees that.

Not for nothing, but the fact that Brian Bannister DOES know all about FIP and all that (and passed his knowledge on to Greinke) is both:

A. Very cool

and

B. Something Posnanski more or less “broke” as a story.

So I gotta hand it to him - he annoys me a lot, but he’s a lot better at coming up with interesting topics to highlight than, say, Buzz Bissinger (although Bissinger probably is better with prose than he is).

The Royals have announced they plan to trade Greinke for just mentioning FIP. They have an organizational rule against acknowledging the existence of anything SABR-related.

They have also announced a contract extension for Yuniesky Betancourt.

How many off days are there until the Yankees play again? Serial.

[22], how much did Greinke’s FB to GB change, I wonder.

[25] I can only imagine what Bannister and Greinke say in regards to Yuni Betancourt. Yeesh.

GB% down 2.7%, FB% up 2.2% from 08-09. Not sure if he could really control that.

Billy managed without a conscience. It would have been comical to see him have to implement the Joba Rules.

He wasn’t into details either. From the NY Times:

Coaches were different when Ron Guidry pitched. Guidry, who was named the Yankees’ pitching coach yesterday, remembered his conversations on the mound with Art Fowler, who coached for Manager Billy Martin in the 1970’s and 80’s.

Fowler would come to see him, and Guidry would ask what was wrong. Fowler would admit he had no idea, but whatever Guidry was doing, he was making Martin mad. The joke would help Guidry relax and refocus. Detailed instruction was not the point.

‘‘The biggest thing he would tell you is you have to throw the ball over the plate,’’ Guidry said. ‘‘If you can’t throw the ball over the plate, you can’t pitch in the big leagues.’‘

I missed [9]. Sorry.

Where Turm when it’s time to talk about Billy?

[31] This isn’t the apology thread.

I think Billy’s “conscience” regarding pitcher usage was just typical of the time. Haven’t researched this, but did a casual scan of 1976, 1977, 1985 seasons, sorted pitchers by IP & G, team by CG, and Yankee pitchers didn’t stand out as being used more than other teams.

1985 Guidry - Gator was tied for 19th in the AL in starts, 5th in innings. His game logs indicate that he wasn’t being thrown out there on short rest. That season the Yanks had no reliable starter other than Guidry - Phil Niekro and Joe Cowley being the best of the rest, at least they were merely mediocre. There must’ve been some times that Billy had to resist the temptation to skip Marty Bystrom or hideous Ed Whitson and run Guidry out there on short rest.

That season the Yanks had no reliable starter other than

A little patience, and poof, LaPoint and Hawkins. I was around, but still too young, for the late 1970s - early 1980s action, but 89 was when I started having the more vivid baseball/Yankee memories.

Good times.

“Haven’t researched this, but did a casual scan of 1976, 1977, 1985 seasons, sorted pitchers by IP & G, team by CG”

How’s that not research?

Re 1985 Guidry, was he pitching hurt?  If so the total IP could still be relatively abusive.

Take a look at the A’s 1980 season that MC referenced above at [5]:

Langford 290 IP (previous season 219.2)
Norris 284.1 IP (previous season 146.1)
Keough 250 IP (previous season 176.2)
McCatty 221.2 IP (previous season 185.2)
Kingman 211.1 IP (previous season 112.2)

Some of these starters experienced some serious jumps in IP.

Not so shockingly, Norris’ career then went:
1981 - 172.2 IP
1982 - 166.1 IP
1983 - 88.2 IP
1984 through 1989 - DNP
1990 - 27 IP in relief

When you have the chance to finish in second place, 14 games back of first, and all it costs you is completely destroying a young, promising starter, you just have to do it.

[37]  Maybe they had a shot at the wild card until late.

That season the Yanks had no reliable starter other than

Of course, this was partly because after 1983 they took their excellent-but-inconsistent young starter and moved him to the bullpen.  Always a smart move.

[39] Since I was < 2 years old at the time, could someone explain WHY they moved a pitcher who had thrown 217 above league average innings (112 ERA+) to the BP? What is the logic?

And can someone forward this information onto Cashman and Girardi so we don’t have to deal with them wasting $6M on Ben Sheets, moving Joba or Hughes to the pen, and then once Sheets is ineffective/injured deciding it would be better to leave Joba/Hughes in the BP and let Gaudin have a bunch of starts.

I think Ben Sheets would be a great pick-up at $6 million.

I like Joba and Hughes in the rotation, but it’s hard to turn down a guy like Sheets, who could be a #2 starter in 2010, if it’s only $6 million.

[39] Since I was < 2 years old at the time, could someone explain WHY they moved a pitcher who had thrown 217 above league average innings (112 ERA+) to the BP? What is the logic?

I didn’t start watching until the following year (1985) to know enough, but from what I’ve heard it was simple.  1983 they had a dominant closer (Gossage).  1984 Gossage was gone (San Diego, I think), and felt they needed to replace him.  Et voila!  I don’t know if they acquired Niekro b/c they wanted to move Righetti to the bullpen or besides the fact.  But sure, Rags certainly could have been an excellent starter for 5-8 years instead.

I like Joba and Hughes in the rotation, but it’s hard to turn down a guy like Sheets, who could be a #2 starter in 2010, if it’s only $6 million.

Someone yesterday talked about giving Hughes the 2007 Joba treatment.  April and maybe May in the bullpen and then transition into the rotation later.  Sheets would facilitate this, as he’d probably be dominant for a couple of months before getting hurt.

[39], [42] Even though Righetti pitched a no hitter in 1983.

[43] Apparently, the Yankees don’t plan to cap Hughes’ innings in 2010, as they think the 146 innings he threw 2 years ago means he can pretty much handle the 5th starter IP load. 

But if they get Harden or Sheets, and Harden/Sheets is actually healthy & good, I wouldn’t mind Hughes in the ‘pen so long as they made a concerted effort to have him pitch multi-inning appearances.

[45] My sentiments exactly.  I’m fine with either Joba or Hughes in the ‘pen as long as it’s more of a “long relief” role rather than setup duty.  I agree that both(?) would be better suited as “8th inning guys,” but development is the priority.  If Hughes/Joba pitches 2-4 innings at a clip with solid rest in between, he will 1. get innings, 2. transition to a starter much easily should the need arise, and 3. impact the big league roster rather than toiling away in the minors.

It’s not going to happen, but a man can dream, can’t he?

[38] A bit too subtle with the humor Frog?  Or did you miss the part about this being 1980?

[40] FWIW, there actually was stats-based logic behind the move of Righetti to the bullpen.  The Yankees claimed that he was damned near unhittable his first time through a lineup, and relatively ordinary thereafter.  I have not reviewed the gamelogs to confirm or refute this, and I’m certainly not endorsing the decision.  But by mid-eighties standards, that was considered pretty advanced, out-of-the-box thinking.

[45] Link?  Or is that inside stuff you got there, Rob?

$6M on Sheets is $6M wasted.

He can’t stay healthy.  He’ll never be there in October.  Better to give Joba and Hughes the starts to help their development, so that by October, they’re more reliable.

I think Ben Sheets would be a great pick-up at $6 million.

For the bullpen maybe.  I can’t see why the Yanks would pick up Sheets, who is coming off major surgery and hasn’t pitched in over a year, and put him in the rotation at the expense of either Joba or Hughes.

I have a feeling Sheets will sign with some team for much less than six million, will have to pitch his way into the rotation from the bullpen and will be on the DL by June.

[21] Interesting that Scioscia is so confident in his team when he doesn’t know who’s going to be on his team yet.  If they don’t re-sign or replace Lackey, Figgins, Guerrero and (believe it or not) Darren Oliver, he’ll need to worry a lot more about holding off the Rangers and Mariners than beating the Yankees in the playoffs.

Sheets is probably going to get an incentives based contract, so he would probably be worth the money, but he might not be worth the roster space.  If he stays healthy-ish this year, he might be more interesting next year, as long as you aren’t counting on him too much.

[51] Given that Scioscia’s comments were made at a local local fundraiser, I think that he was acting like a politician throwing read meat at his base, and like a politician, I doubt that he actually believes what he said..

In other managerial news, Mike Scoscscia had this to say recently, “I don’t care if the Yankees go out and spend $350 million next year, we’re going to beat them because we have the team.”

I wasn’t aware the Yankees were transferred to the AL West.  How did we not have a news thread about this?

[44] I’m certainly not saying it was *right*, just that was the logic behind it.  And MC added some more (possible) logic.  If closers were still expected to regularly throw 120+ innings a year it may have even been rational.

[52] Yeah, I wonder if Yankees can entice him to sign an MiL deal, or even have an agreement (with a nod and a wink) that he’ll start the year on the DL.  The contract would have all of the incentives (and options), and maybe a June 1st out in it.  IOW, if by injury or ineffectiveness one of the starters is out of the rotation before June 1st, you have a potential #2 starter waiting to take over.  And then if he stays healthy and is effective the entire year exercise the options and Pettitte’s Yankee career is over in 2011.

Chances are someone will give him a gauranteed starting spot, but if there’s ever a time for unbridled optimism, this is it.

WR Reggie Wayne called his own play on the Colts’ game-winning touchdown catch, a one-yard pass from QB Peyton Manning. Manning had wanted Wayne to run a fade pattern but the veteran receiver had his own ideas. “I gave him my C.C. Sabathia shake off. It was initially a fade route. We had just run the fade the last series and it was unsuccessful. I wanted to do the same thing, show fade and just come with the slant and it worked,” he said.

The only way I’d touch Sheets is with a low base and lots o’ incentives.  From what I’ve read, this wasn’t a routine injury/surgery, there’s a good chance he’ll never be an effective pitcher again.

Dollar for dollar, Harden seems like the better gamble to me.  Of course, a lot of teams probably think that as well.

[57] Harden with his flyball tendencies can be pretty homerrific in the DNYS. Of course, Sheets is not going to be of much help there, unless he keeps up his HR/FB rate.

Harden with his flyball tendencies can be pretty homerrific in the DNYS.

I was thinking that if Harden still has that mid 90s fastball he can prevent lefties from pulling him down the line, but looks like he’s down to around 92 on average.  Interestingly, he apparently scrapped his splitter and slider in 2009 and only threw fastballs (60.2% of the time) and changeups (39.8%).  That could be a classification issue, but it sure seems odds.

[48] I saw that in the NYT I think, but here’s Chad Jennings.

I am against signing any of the “low risk, high reward” starting pitcher candidates (Sheets/Harden/Bedard/Zombie Walter Johnson) for several reasons:

1. They will all get something similar to the Schmoltz contract, and that ended up costing the Sox ~$8M for almost no production.

2. They are all only likely to sign with a team that guarantees them a spot in the starting rotation, since they will all get offers from pitching desperate teams to be in the starting rotation.

3. It will give Cashman/Girardi another taste of Hughes pitching teh ate, and once they get that taste in their mouths they will try everything (giving starts instead to Aceves, Mitre, and Gaudin for example) instead of moving Hughes back to the rotation.

4. Honestly, what are the chances you get the high reward? Who is the last “low risk, high reward” starting pitcher coming off injury problems who paid off big time?

5. Wouldn’t going with Joba and Hughes as your #4 and #5 starters be the definition of “low risk, high reward”? They each make like $500K and have the potential to be top of the rotation starters. With them it’s just about whether or not they will develop into what they can potentially be, but that seems more likely than Sheets/Harden/Bedard staying healthy. It’s not like the Yankees won’t have Gaudin/IPK/Aceves/Nova/McCallister for depth, and are incapable of making a trade during the season if they find out they need a starter.