SG, you’re teh awesome!

So basically we’re losing somewhere around 2-3 wins with this.  Step off the ledge, people!

3 wins is not piece of cake, but I’ll take it.

It’s probably closer to 2 wins, not 3.  I think Giese’s projection is overly optimistic, but I think the assumption that Hughes/IPK/Reliever are all replacement level is commensurately pessimistic.

“SG…numbers that make me feel better about this…PLEASE!!! “

Thanks SG….that is all I was looking for. I am looking forward to seeing some kids pitch.

You know, if the Yankees had gotten Santana Wang wouldn’t have even been pitching yesterday.

Now, will anyone in the MSM figure that out?

Shhh, don’t give them any ideas…Besides, it just means it would’ve been Santana going on DL with the Lisfranc fracture!

YankeesBB1 says: yt?
WahooPimpin says: not 4 u spammer, he he
YankeesBB1 says: lol. u r funny.
YankeesBB1 says: ur hawt too.
WahooPimpin says: freal? u think so? hawter tahn Billy been?
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WahooPimpin says: No Wai!!1
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WahooPimpin says: send him ovar den!
YankeesBB1 says: k. we can has CeeCeesborger den?!
WahooPimpin says: dood u are in idiot, no wai.
YankeesBB1 says: Dood he iz teh sexorz. u can have him and $$$.
WahooPimpin says: Orly? how muych $$$
YankeesBB1 says: $$$$$$$$$!
WahooPimpin says: $20millz + Abreu and maybe. need to check wiff Selig
YankeesBB1 says: alredy did selig. lol. not did selig. u know.
YankeesBB1 says: but not abreu obby = Cano.
YankeesBB1 says: yt?
WahooPimpin says: LMAO ROFLMAO! dood you r a moran.
WahooPimpin has signed out.
YankeesBB1 says: :(

what the

Brilliant.

that’s really funny

never has a partial tear of the peroneal longus tendon of the right foot ruined my day so mightily.

What if Joba goes 18-0 in his remaining starts?  That should take care of Wang’s measly 2.3 wins.

YankeesBB1 says: yt?
buylowZELLhigh says: what u want? busy.
YankeesBB1: reel quick, we gotsa problem.
buylowZELLhigh says: u gotsa a problem, dood.
YankeesBB1: i know right?
buylowZELLhigh: so wut up?
YankeesBB1: you need 2 send us lilly back we found loopholes in teh contract and we need him bak 4 2nite.
buylowZELLhigh says: dick. u don’t have a game 2night.
YankeesBB1 says: 2 morrow then. don’t make me gat u.
buylowZELLhigh says: lol. whateves we did not get lilly from u.
YankeesBB1 says: oic. i new that.
YankeesBB1 says: if u r so smart who did u get him from?
YankeesBB1 says: hello? i know teh anser. just cheking.
YankeesBB1 says: yt?
YankeesBB1 says: :(

Schteeve is on a roll.

But what does “yt” stand for?

you there?

and Sam Zell is the dude who owns the Cubs at the moment.

Yeah.  It’s not necessarily the end of the world.  Though SG’s projections seem more than a tad optimistic to me.  If Giese can put up a 4.21 ERA, I mean, jeez, he’d be virtually as good as Wang, there would be no need for Hughes and Kennedy to be in the mix, and the drop-off would be negligible.  And while replacement level performance should be expected from Hughes and Kennedy eventually, they’ve been far from replacement level in 2008.

No need to panic, for sure, but a 2-win drop-off feels like a best-case scenario to me.

No need to panic, for sure, but a 2-win drop-off feels like a best-case scenario to me.

Actually best case scenario would be Kennedy pitching to his projected 4.50 ERA and Hughes pitching to his projected 3.88 ERA (entering 2008) and with Giese in the role of the 31 inning reliever and matching his projection.  That’s maybe a one win fall off from Wang.

I see…I also see that I’m very old, having needed way too much time to translate all that in my head

Andy Pettitte is one day younger than me. I apparently spend too much time on the internet.

What an anti-climatic ending to the US Open.

i thought 18 was pretty dramatic.

Tiger is the man.  One of the two athletes, IMO, I’ve seen in my lifetime that I can say to my kids: “he’s the best there’s ever been.”

I could say that about Woods and Jordan.  That’s it.

happy birthday schteeve. i mean from the other day

Woods, Jordan, Mariano.

thanks.

Dang, I wished I could’ve watched US Open today…Tiger is amazing.

Sidney Ponson is available.

Barf.

i thought 18 was pretty dramatic.

I dunno, I think Mediate knew that Woods was going to birdy 18, so I don’t think it was THAT dramatic.

The drama was whether Mediate would birdy it and/or whether Woods would eagle it - and in both those cases, it was clear pretty quickly that neither event was going to happen.

Woods, Jordan, Mariano.

Exactly what I thought as I read his post.

I guess if you were into Indy cars, you could also say Schumaker.  But is it even really a sport?

Federer is the other one.  What’s crazy about tennis and Federer is that he’s working against Nadal on the clay…there has never been a matchup quite like what’s happening there.  It’s really possible that you’re looking at the two best players in the history of the game.  It looks overall that Federer is waning, but Nadal is waxing, and he could be a force for some time.

Wang going down sucks.  But for some reason, I’m not worried.  Maybe it’s all that opium I smoked this afternoon, or the general sense of giddiness that comes with a four game winning streak.  Probably the opium.

I’d give Mariano the title as Best Reliever Ever.  But best baseball player?  Can’t do it.

Judging tennis is tough, at least to me.  There are no real stats to measure a player’s performance against his/her predecessors.  All you have is how a player does against his contemporaries.  Federer is awesome, but how would he do against Sampras, Aggasii, Becker, Borg, etc.?

Actually best case scenario would be Kennedy pitching to his projected 4.50 ERA and Hughes pitching to his projected 3.88 ERA (entering 2008) and with Giese in the role of the 31 inning reliever and matching his projection.  That’s maybe a one win fall off from Wang.

Fair enough.  But I don’t think it’s impossible to imagine that ALL of Wang’s innings could be filled by replacement-level pitching.  I think that your close-to-replacement-level projections for Hughes and IPK are not pessimistic, but fair, given their 2008 performance so far and the fact that both will be recovering from injury, which means that your projections are seeing most of the better-than-replacement value coming from 40 innings of 4.21 ERA from Dan Giese, which I have a hard time buying.

And if my (totally subjective, I admit) scenario of all of Wang’s innings going replacement-level, then we’re talking about something closer to a 6-win shortfall, if I understand your numbers correctly (31 IP at replacement level = 1.6 win shortfall, then 120 IP at replacement level = ~6 win shortfall).  Which is pretty ominous.

And for everyone’s info:  I heard Cashman on Mike and the Mad Dog today, and his list of possible replacements for Wang went something like this:  Giese will be the first option, followed by Igawa.  He indicated that McCutchen and Horne need more time at AAA.  Karstens also is not in the immediate mix.

p.s.  I really appreciate the projections, SG.

I like giving Giese a shot. He looks like he does not suck.

In post 33 I meant to say:  And if my (totally subjective, I admit) scenario of all of Wang’s innings going replacement-level COMES TRUE, then…

And yeah, thanks for all the work, SG!

I’d give Mariano the title as Best Reliever Ever.

That’s all I was saying.

I think that most tennis insiders believe that Federer’s game is more complete than all of those guys: he’s a synthesis of power and finesse, and like all of the greats, his style of play has been digested and infused in the next generation of players.  Think of this: Federer had made 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals until the Australian Open this year, where he lost in the semis suffering from mononucleosis (he didn’t know he had it…he felt fatigued, and was diagnosed after the tournament).  That’s just a sick run, truly one of the greatest in sports history.  The enormity (from a tennis standpoint of course) of what’s going on between Federer and Nadal isn’t really appreciated for what it is.

And if my (totally subjective, I admit) scenario of all of Wang’s innings going replacement-level, then we’re talking about something closer to a 6-win shortfall, if I understand your numbers correctly (31 IP at replacement level = 1.6 win shortfall, then 120 IP at replacement level = ~6 win shortfall).  Which is pretty ominous.

Not quite.  If Wang is 2.3 wins above replacement level, then replacement level is exactly zero.  Now it’s certainly possible the Yankees get sub-replacement level performance out of whomever fills Wang’s slot, but that seems like a long shot.

To be six wins worse without Wang, the replacement pitchers would have to put up an ERA of 8.40 over 121 innings.  If it’s 121 innings of Karstens/Igawa, I guess that’s possible.

Wang: (3.90 ERA) = 121 innings, 52 ER, 23 RAR, 2.3 WAR
Replacement Level (5.58 ERA) = 121 innings, 74 ER, 0 RAR, 0.0 WAR
Six wins worse (8.40 ERA) = 121 innings, 113 ER, -37 RAR, -3.7 WAR

2.3 - (-3.7) = 6 win difference.

F.

SG, for pure comic effect, you should have projected Pavano in there.

I think Federer’s run is slightly overrated only because, unlike Woods, he only has to deal with a handful of players one-on-one per tournament, and only the ones in the later rounds are particularly good.

Woods, meanwhile, has to beat out, one-on-one, EVERYONE.

Seems like a great tennis player would have a lot better odds than a great golf player.

Overrated is the wrong term. It’s awesome what Federer has done, I don’t mean to say he is overrated.

He’s only overrated if compared to, say, Woods.

And that’s a pretty high level to compare to, so it’s not meant as a shot at Federer!

YankeesBB1 says: yt?
SteelinfrmYanks says: hell yeah playa, my throwni program got pushed back
YankeesBB1 says: weed need you to pitch, r u still hurt?
SteelinfrmYanks says: what’s my name beeeyatch!>lol
YankeesBB1 says: uh…carl povano?
SteelinfrmYanks says: RIGHT! so no. can’t pitch. sorrreee.lol. u see teh Massters? Tiger is bossplaya1!
YankeesBB1 says: shut up.
YankeesBB1 has signed out.

the least pavano could do would be to be to allow us to transplant his peroneal longus tendon to Wang’s foot.

YankeesBB1 says: yo yt?
LadeezluvCapnCalmEyes says: Yes?
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Ahhhhhhhhhh.  Sorry SG.  Now I see.

The 1.6 Wins lost is for the ENTIRE GROUP of pitchers:  Giese, Hughes, Kennedy, and the replacement relievers.  And of course, you say quite clearly that Giese at replacement level would mean a 2.3 win shortfall.

That’s what I get for trying to crunch numbers.

So overall, not much need for panic.

Ehh, Pavano did try to pitch hurt.  Was Hughes stealing from the Yankees when he got injured while rehabbing, or this season?

“So overall, not much need for panic.”

2.3 wins for the Yankees are a big number, because the way they are playing it is likely that they fall short 2 or 3 wins short to get tothe playoffs.

Note that even if we do need 2-3 more wins to survive the regular season, we still don’t have to get it from the rotation.

25: Jordan, Jordan, Jordan!

Federer is the best tennis player ever. The only other player who could compete with him, if they played in their primes, is Pete Sampras. But to roughly quote the awesome James Blake, it’s close on grass, not close on clay. He’s dominated in a way never seen before, and against some very good competition. Think about how good Andy Roddick is, and how much he would have won if he hadn’t peaked the same time as Federer.

I fear that Roger, who will likely never win a French Open, will be remembered as a poor clay court player. Which is a damn shame, because he’s really amazing on clay, the second best in the world right now. He just happened to be up against the best clay-court player probably ever (Nadal).

I do agree that what Woods has done is more impressive.

I think Federer’s run is slightly overrated only because, unlike Woods, he only has to deal with a handful of players one-on-one per tournament, and only the ones in the later rounds are particularly good.

The counter here is that Woods has four rounds of golf to play, and if he’s bad one day, he can make it up the next.  Federer had to win every single match to get to the finals.  Match-play golf tournaments are among the hardest.

I’m not saying that Federer is Woods in terms of dominance - I think Woods is probably the greatest athlete in any sport in history - but I personally think he’s the best tennis player in the history of the game.  People will say that without a win in the French, he isn’t.  Bollocks.  Neither Borg, Lever, nor Sampras had to face any player as dominant on a single surface as Nadal is on clay.

Baseball - Babe Ruth
Basketball - Michael Jordan
Football - ?...Rice? Brown? Montana?
Golf - Tiger Woods
Tennis - Roger Federer
Hockey - Gretzky (?)

...Yankz just beat me to the punch.

Dave, I agree with you mostly, but to play devil’s advocate, Federer is allowed to be off his game for a few games, or even a set. If Woods was ever off his game for just 9 or 10 strokes, he’d probably be done.

ESPN’s list of greatest athletes: http://espn.go.com/sportscentury/athletes.html

Is it just me or is Colon even fatter now than he used to be?

Great analysis, as usual, SG.  How about this pessimistic variation: 

Assume that one or more of the remaining 4 starters miss some substantial number of starts, due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Because the best available replacement startin pitcher is replacing Wang, the replacement for the other 4 starters will be one level down—perhaps worse than replacement level.  How many games does that cost the Yanks?

Assume that one or more of the remaining 4 starters miss some substantial number of starts, due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Because the best available replacement startin pitcher is replacing Wang, the replacement for the other 4 starters will be one level down—perhaps worse than replacement level.  How many games does that cost the Yanks?

If that happens, I don’t think the number of wins lost would really matter because at that point our beloved Yankees would be royally fucked.

To go along with David, I’m hopeful that Rasner’s last game was just a bad outing and not a sign that he is going to perform closer to his original expectation.

It’s not the good injury news we were all hoping for, but Fancisco Cervelli is starting for the Tampa Yankees at C tonight. He’s been out since that hit by Elliot Johnson in spring training.

This is good news, as he’s supposedly a top-notch defensive catcher with a real chance to make the team in 2010.

As a piece of trivia too, CJ Henry, the 1st round draft choice SS who was sent to Philly for Bobby Abreu, then subsequently release and resigned by the Yankees, is also back playing for Tampa tonight. 1-1 with a RBI 2B in his first at-bat.

ryan howard= Beast

He certainly is, but Utley is the one dude for whom I wouldn’t mind giving up the farm.

Bartolo Colon + bat = pure comedy.

i think the ham sandwich in his back pocket could be throwing off his balance

Fuckin’ Pedroia.

Fuckin’ Drew.

preemptive Fuckin’ Manny

phew

Federer has a great argument for being the greatest tennis player.

I just often see his dominance in tennis compared favorably to Woods’ dominance in golf, and I don’t think the two are all that close.

And I realize that everyone here gets that - just making sure it’s clear that I’m not all “Woods rulez, Federer droolz!”

Is this the Red Sox game thread?

I don’t like this freakin’ A-Rod impression Drew has been doing lately!

Leadoff bunt by Utley - I take it he’s not very good?

Leadoff bunt by Utley - I take it he’s not very good?

He’s not very good when he tries the leadoff bunt.  Dumbass.

Kei Igawa + Farnsworth for Cole Hamels and Chase Utley.  Make it happen, Cash!

YM, I didn’t know that Phillips and Peterson were working in Philly now.

the michael jordan conversation comes full circle

OK, fine, we’ll throw in Hawkins if the Phils agree to pick up all salary.

Eelz, I was just thinking that.  Funny how these things work out, eh?

Why is Mike Timlin still pitching in the majors?

that was fun to watch on a few levels

I think I felt the ground shake in my NYC apartment as Howard thundered into 3rd…

I will ask again, why is Timlin still pitching?  Particularly in this game?

Golf is not a sport.  Tiger Woods dominates his game, but he’s not an athlete in the sense that Michael Jordan, Carl Lewis or Joe DiMaggio were athletes.  Woods can eat nothing but frozen pizza for the next three months and still win.  Federer can’t do that.

By the way, every time Eric Duncan shows flashes of being a decent baseball player, he promptly immerses himself in quicksand.  In other words, the pride of Seton Hall Prep now has an OPS of .700 on the nose.

maybe he’s a good hitter.

Man Alive,I sure am luvvin these Filerdefia guys. They make luvvin fun.

Except Tiger Woods has no top competitors. The field of golfers he competes against is a joke. If Mediate drained a makeable birdie on 18 Sunday or Monday, he wins the US Open.

the providence grays had a pretty sweet year in 1884.

Woods is in pretty freaking good shape, and I would say that it helps his game tremendously.  Michelson’s man-boobs are quite funny though, and I get your point about golf not being that athletically challenging.

I think the sport/non-sport argument is one of the most pointless.  People make it out to be that any non-sport is inherently less important or hard than a “real sport”.  I’ll say that my definition of sport involves direct interaction between the competitors, basically “defense”; so baseball, football, tennis, volleyball, soccer, etc all count, but timed things like track and field and swimming, or judged competitions are not sports.  This distinction does not mean that non-sports require less athleticism than a sport, as Bartolo Colon surely demonstrates.

I agree in principle, DaPuj, but take issue with your example.  If you watch any kind of high level running, you immediately see that they’re running against each other with very direct interaction.  It’s probably most apparent in the mid-distance runs.  Try telling a miler he’s not competing with another individual.

Drew has no fear of the right field wall.
I hate golf and tennis. Why have Mike and the tennis experts computer people stolen the log in info of the only lads in the world I actually have any affection for?

If you are wearing pleated khakis while competing, you are not playing a sport.

Especially since the championship races are rarely run in WR times, or even close. They are all racing against each other, very tactically. Also, if you’ve ever run in anything 800 or over on a track the packs can be pretty brutal.

Golf is not a sport.  Tiger Woods dominates his game, but he’s not an athlete in the sense that Michael Jordan, Carl Lewis or Joe DiMaggio were athletes.  Woods can eat nothing but frozen pizza for the next three months and still win.  Federer can’t do that.

That’s insane.  Tiger is in better shape than most baseball players.  Go and walk about six miles every 18 while trying to keep your form.  Do that over the course of a tournament, rain or shine, heat or cold.  Guys who do that can’t afford to eat pizza all day.

Sure, they aren’t as athletic as Jordan or Lewis, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t athletes and golf isn’t a sport.

Except Tiger Woods has no top competitors. The field of golfers he competes against is a joke. If Mediate drained a makeable birdie on 18 Sunday or Monday, he wins the US Open.

Woods plays in a more competitive field than any other great golfer: Byron, Nicholaus, Palmer.  Woods competes against the great golfers of not just the U.S., but the world, regardless of color or creed.  Same can’t be said for the older golfers.  The field looks poor because Tiger dominates so much.

I agree that most of the sprints are pretty individual as well as the field events. Although, better competition usually leads to better performances.

Man alive. NHRA nationals in englishtown NJ. this coming weekend.
I’ll be there. Lots more fun than golf and tennis.
0 to 340 in 4.6 seconds.

Since when did walking become a measure of athleticism?

The issue with defining a sport is trying to make them fit into some cookie cutter form. Different sports simply require different skill sets/talent. Baseball is primarily a skill and sport based on reaction time while football is a power sport and cycling is an endurance sport. A baseball player is unlikely to be a good football player or cyclist, and the inverses as well, but they are still athletes.

What IE said.

What great golfers of the world are you talking about? I see none. An over the hill Vijay? You are drinking the Tiger Woods Kool-Aid.

Bo knew diddly, Clay. Jackson was a monster in the NFL and a fairly gifted outfielder. Hitting….. maybe with more time.

Don even hates Tiger Woods.  Don, have there been any good players in anything since Micky Mantle and Johnny Unitas?

j/k.

Golf is also an endurance sport.  Go take a few swings at the driving range.  It’s not too hard.  Now walk 6 miles and swing a couple of hundred times.  Try to keep your form.  That’s a measure of athleticism, just like throwing a baseball or swinging a bat.

Don - there are plenty of good golfers out there.  Watch a tourney where Tiger isn’t in the field, you’ll find them.