We’ve done this to death here, but you simply cannot start Gaudin against a lineup that starts with four left-handed hitters.  The chances of getting through the first inning unscathed are probably around 1%.

Rosenthal isn’t sure it would be the wrong move because he barely considers how poorly Gaudin is likely to pitch, and only dismissively near the end of the piece.  The Yankees would be better off starting Marte to pitch to the top six Philly hitters and then deciding where to go from there depending on whether the offense has done anything yet.

In Scenario 1, wouldn’t you start Sabathia in Game 7 on three days rest no matter what?  If it comes down to a Game 7, you probably have to put him out there considering it means the Yankees lost two straight, right?  And have Pettitte come in if he tires early?

Yes, you start CC in Game 7 regardless. 

& I think it’s touching that AJ now has such confidence on this board that he’s gone from walking timebomb to pitcher who can start on three-days rest with a good chance of beating Cliff Lee because that’s the only reason you don’t put Gaudin (or Aceves or even Marte for six batters) in there and pitch AJ at home again vs. Pedro.

Well, that and because you really want to see how dandy is Andy on three-days rest for the first time in three years.

It’s not just “would you rather see Andy on three or Gaudin (or Aceves, or Marte)?”

I really thought the whole question depended on how well CC bats against lefties.

And also how well AJ hits. Because the pitchers offense platoon splits are the most important thing.

You’re confusing me, Mr. Mayor.  Sure, it’s still possible that Bad Burnett shows up in his next start.  But that’s possible whether it’s on three days or four, and whether it’s in Philladelphia or New York.

The far more important consideration has to be the much higher likelihood of Gaudin getting lit up by a very good lefty-heavy lineup.  Is a Pettitte on three days rest a scarier thought that a Gaudin who’s faced three live hitters in a month?

Gaudin CAN NOT start in this series.  Starting Gaudin instead of Joba would be lunacy.  I’m not saying Joba would do well, but at least he has a chance.

I say everybody goes on three days rest.  You’ve got all winter to rest.
If that’s deemed impossible, start Joba in game 4.  Don’t tell him he’s starting until he gets to the park, and hope for the best.

I agree with MC. Even if you start Gaudin, you’re likely to wear out the bullpen anyway Depending on how much they are used in Games 3 and 4, that could turn out to be far too costly a proposition.

I’ve said all along that pitching CC, AJ and BC on 3 days rest throughout the series is clearly the best move.

I understand that there are reasons to handle pitchers delicately: pitch counts, Joba’s innings limits, etc, etc.

But if starting Gaudin is this much of a debate, then the pendulum has swung way, way too far in the direction of conservative pitcher management.

MC—I’m simply pessimistic about WOE vs. Cy Lee regardless of who’s pitching.  So I come at the question looking at the cost of trying to steal that game v. punting it(*), but pleased to be proven overly pessimistic.  But given that premise, I then ask, which scenario gives me the better chance of winning the next two: Andy on 3 days plus CC on 3 days or AJ rested + CC on 3 with a fully rested Andy first out of the pen—Andy has relieved more recently than he’s gone on three.

That’s what I’m sayin’.

(*)If the Phillies hitters tire themselves out swinging against Gaudun, that’s a bonus.

&—to be clear—I’m using “Gaudin” as generic 5th starter.  Let it be whomever, and it’s the day before an off day, so the pen isn’t as much of a concern unless you want to be sure Bruney’s availablwe to pitche the 8th in a close game.

<chirp>

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[9] “Punting” a game in short series is sheer lunacy.  Cliff Lee is not immortal.

[9] Mayor, you just can’t give up a game in the World Series.  Maybe AJ matches zeros with Lee.  Maybe Lee gives up a bloop or two and hangs a curve.  Maybe the Yankees pound his brains in.  He’s a 3 ERA pitcher, not 1968 Gibson.

Sorry to shout, but:

YOU DO NOT PUNT GAME FOUR OR FIVE OF THE GODDAMNED FREAKING WORLD SERIES!!!!!

Seriously, though.  You have to at least give yourself a fighting chance to get out of the first inning alive.  Gaudin doesn’t give you that against this lineup, and there is no other generic fifth starter on the roster.  I could see starting Chamberlain if they’re up 3-1, but that depends on Girardi being able to get through game four without using him.

It’d be kind of hilarious to see the Yankees MacGyver their way to a World Series using only 3 starters.

winning* a World Series.

He’s a 3 ERA pitcher, not 1968 Gibson.

And lest we forget, Bob Gibson lost game 7 of the 1968 World Series.  Got beat by a lesser pitcher going on less rest.

Mickey Lolich lives!

Has anyone mentioned today that AJ has excellent 3-days-rest numbers?  Do it! 

And when the Yankees are up 9-1 in the fifth inning today, take Andy out so he’s strong enough for Game 6.

I’m not sure it’s MacGyver so much as My Three Sons.  A three man rotation has been the seven game norm until recently—Denny McClain, Jack Morris, Luis Tiant, Ron Darling, Herr Bludensocke and others come to mind as 3 start studs.

Lee started 12 games for the Phillies this year in the regular season.  Right after the trade to Philly Cliff Phifer Lee started 5 games and pitched 40 innings holding batters to an OPS of .443 with an ERA of 0.68.  His next 7 starts he pitched 39.2 innings with an ERA of 6.13 while batters put up an OPS of .895 against him, and this is all in the NL.  When he’s on, he’s on, but I’m not sure I’d be ready to punt a game against Lee.

More importantly, A-Rod allegedly had portraits of himself as a centaur.  If true, that is awesome.

“but I’m not sure I’d be ready to punt a game against Lee. “

I’m not ready to punt a game against zombie Walter Johnson in the WS.

In reference to [20], I just saw that Lombardi posted about it.  Now I feel bad.  I only posted it because Jonah Keri linked to it.

At least he did not portraits of him as a pigman.

Go centaur!

[21] - The zombie v. zombie battle with Hideki up to bat would be riveting.

I agree with all above who say its sheer lunacy to basically sacrifice a game in the WS, and the idea that its probably going to happen makes me really really mad.

You win or lose with your best, not the guy you got from one of the worst teams for some cash who hasn’t started in over a month and is a terrible pitcher against lefties in a ball park that is really kind to lefties.

The idea that the Yankees are even considering it is sheer madness.

The idea that the Yankees are even considering it is sheer madness.

Rosenthal.

Re {20} I’d like to think that reveals a sense of humor we haven’t seen in press conferences.

At least he did not do portraits of himself as a pigman.

:hangs head:

“The idea that the Yankees are even considering it is sheer madness. “

QFT.  Why they’d even consider Gaudin is beyond me.

Maybe Burnett and Pettite can’t start on 3 days rest, fine.  Then send Joba out against Blanton.  You’ve got a puncher’s chance in that game.

At least you have a fully rested CC against Lee.  Both games are eminently winnable.

Starting CC on short rest, AND putting Gaudin against Lee makes no freaking sense.

Well, CC in Game 5 means he can’t start Game 7, but could throw a couple innings maybe.  I think that is at least factoring into using him in Game 4.  And honestly, what direct quotes from Girardi have there been as to using Gaudin? I mean, they had him throw the extended bullpen over the weekend, but that’s about it, right?

Hmm, I don’t know that I trust Joba over Gaudin at the moment.  Maybe start the latter with instructions not to hold anything back and plan on Robertson after 3, then Joba etc.  Maybe the expectation is Gaudin gives up 2 in that time, you’re still in the game though.  One has to weigh Gaudin vs lefties against the chance of getting no-control bad-first-inning Joba.

It obviously would never happen, but I still say that starting Marte is a better idea than starting Gaudin.  Marte would have a decent chance of getting through the first six batters without giving up a run.  Then you can bring in Bruney for the bottom of the lineup and go to Aceves for the second time through.  If he gives you three decent innings, you’re in the game and into the good part of your bullpen.  Instead of out of the game early and into the bad part of the bullpen.

Gaudin is a “break glass in case of emergency” pitcher at this time of year.

“Well, CC in Game 5 means he can’t start Game 7, but could throw a couple innings maybe.  I think that is at least factoring into using him in Game 4.”

I just don’t think the difference between CC on 3-days for the 2nd time, vs a fully rested Pettitte is so great as to warrant matching up a 4th SP against Lee, and denying Andy a 2nd start.

If a 4th starter has to pitch, I’d much rather have 4th SP, CC, AJ, Pettitte all on full rest, (with CC in the pen for games 6-7), than CC (short rest), 4th SP, AJ, CC(short rest).

This way you match the 4th SP against Blanton, CC against Lee, AJ against Pedro, and Pettitte against Hamels, which I far prefer to CC(3-days) vs. Blanton, 4th SP vs. Lee, AJ vs. Pedro, CC(3-days) vs. Hamels.

I still think the optimal is to use CC, AJ and Andy all on 3-days rest.

[30] Well he has said he will wait until after today’s game to announce whether it will be CC or Guadin tomorrow, and same thing for the following game.

I still think the optimal is to use CC, AJ and Andy all on 3-days rest.

Yes, because if you lose, you’re losing with your best.

Then you can bring in Bruney for the bottom of the lineup and go to Aceves for the second time through.

If Girardi decided to use the bullpen approach, I would use Coke for the second time through.

Well, you would use Coke for the second time through, but Girardi wouldn’t because then he doesn’t have a lefty for a late inning matchup situation.  But like I said, he won’t use the bullpen approach in the first place, so it’s moot.

The other problem with starting Gaudin is that Girardi isn’t going to go to the good part of the bullpen at the first sign of early inning trouble—it would be Aceves unless Gaudin somehow made it through five.  Hell, it might still be Aceves even if Gaudin did make it through five.  So basically starting Gaudin means that you’re trying to win a game using your two weakest pitchers first.

“But like I said, he won’t use the bullpen approach in the first place, so it’s moot.”

You think there’s no chance of a Joba for 4IP, Hughes for 2 IP, Roberston for 2IP approach?  Even if Pettitte give them 6-7 IP tonight?

[20] How can you not like ARod after finding that out?

Eiland was just on ESPN 1050. Reading between the lines, it sounded like CC would pitch Game 4 and AJ would pitch Game 5.

“The Yankees have Rodriguez, Posada and Jeter under contract for next season, with a new deal for Jeter, who also turns 36 next June, looming.”

Et tu, Kepner?

I agree that you really do just have to use everyone on three-days rest.  Gaudin’s the guy to bring in when there’s a shelling going down on either side.  Burnett’s next game is him emptying the tank for the entire season.  Three days or four, he’s going to give it everything he has.  The same goes with Pettitte.

Looks like I’m getting out the basement for tonight’s game and am heading to my favorite watering hole for the festivities.  All you game chatterers will miss my over-enthusiastic “BRAINS!” call when the zombie hits one out this All Hallow’s Eve.  Here’s to hoping I have reason to be cheerful on tonight’s complaint thread.

Borden over at Lohud says CC definitely is starting game 4

[37] No, I don’t think there is any chance at all of that approach.  If either Gaudin or Chamberlain gets a start, Girardi will treat him like a starter.  IOW, there is no chance he gets lifted before 5 IP unless he’s getting knocked around or throwing a tone of pitches while dodging bullets.  And if he did get say, four innings of one-run ball on eighty pitches from one of them, Aceves would be the guy to come in for the fifth.  We’re not going to see Hughes or Robertson before the sixth inning.

Then again, you can’t predict baseball.

Another factor: if Sabathia starts game 4, given the weather patterns, there’s a decent chance he could start game 7 on normal rest.

CC is starting game 4.  i doubt this was was ever in question.

If one of the Philly games gets postponed, they’ll just drop the travel day.  If it’s game four that gets rained out, then CC would have just two days rest before game seven.  It would have to be game six or seven that gets washed out, or two of the next three.

[45] Yeah.

I gotta say, I am shocked that Manuel has committed to Blanton in Game 4. He’s now matching his worst WS starter vs our best (on 3 days rest, sure, but CC has shown that to be within his capability.) He’d also be setting Lee up to pitch on only 2 days rest for a would-be game 7, which probably means he’d go to Hamels and have Lee ready at the first sign of trouble.

[33] It sounds like they are going CC for Game 4, Burnett for Game 5, Pettitte for Game 6, and CC for Game 7.

CC finished last season with 5 starts in 18 days.

[48] good Joe decision. Now if he’d only stop over-managing the BP.

[47] I don’t know how firm that commitment is.  Manuel made an announcement, but he certainly could change his mind between now and tomorrow night, especially if Hamels does poorly tonight.

Everybody knows that the Phillies as a team have no platoon split, yes?  But yeat, I agree that rolling out Gaudin to face 5 LHB to begin the game does not thrill. Hughes gets killed by lefties, too, but a lot of that looks like BABIP:  260 vs 329.  Robertson, Joba, Aceves—none of them look especially vulnerable to lefties.  Not the way Gaudin is. 

If we had a 3-1 lead for game 5 against Lee, I would go Aceves/Joba/Robertson, try to get 7-8 innings out of that triumverate, then the LOOGIES and Mo to finish it; figure if we lose we get a day off to rest the pen, then AJ and Andy, full rest, at home, two shots to win the Series.

But yeah, it won’t happen.

Everybody knows that the Phillies as a team have no platoon split, yes?

Does what the team did over a single full season really tell us what we should expect from them going forward?  How much of those platoon split performances were by players who are either not going to be playing in the postseason, or who had a fluky performance in a small sample size that we shouldn’t expect to repeat?

Cano hit lefties better than righties in 2009 (.309/.335/.541 vs. LHP,. 326/.360.508 vs. RHP).  Does that mean you want to bring in a righty to face him, or do you look at the career line of .300/.341/.453 vs. LHP and .309/.338/.491 vs. RHP and bring in a lefty?)

[51] I would expect we’ll see Lee if Hamels loses tonight. I can’t see how Blanton starting Game 4 makes any sense.

“Manuel made an announcement, but he certainly could change his mind between now and tomorrow night, especially if Hamels does poorly tonight”

Am I still confused about having a throw day committing him not to pitch tomorrow?

Well, I was just guessing about the bullpen.  And I suppose Lee could skip it altogether.  Finally, the whole thing could have been a smoke screen.

All you game chatterers will miss my over-enthusiastic “BRAINS!” call when the zombie hits one out this All Hallow’s Eve.

I have to know Dave; did you stand up in the middle of the bar and yell BRAAAIIINSSS! when Matsui went yard?

Seconded.

Sabathia would pitch a game 7