The RAB article sam linked to in the last thread had a comment related to this.  Here’s the whole paragraph on it:

Steve got in a question, perhaps the best of the event. He asked Cashman how draft pick compensation factors into a decision on signing a free agent relief pitcher. Cashman opened by talking about the volatility of relief pitchers and how the Yankees have assembled the bullpen from within over the past few years. Francessa then directed him back to the question, to which Cashman replied that unless it was a situation where there was a specific guy they wanted, to fill a certain role, then they would not sacrifice a draft pick to sign a reliever. In other words, don’t expect the Yankees to pursue Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez if the Braves offer them arbitration this evening.

From that, I have a feeling the Yankees won’t sign an “A” reliever unless they’ve already lost their 1st round pick somewhere, if then.

“According to the agents of all the top available late-inning relievers, the Yankees likely will express interest in all the top available late-inning relievers.”

Heyman says the Blue Jays told the Yankees they’re interested in Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Jesus Montero, and Austin Jackson.  But “to clarify, they didn’t say they’d insist on all four.”

Damned nice of them not to insist on all four.  Anthopoulos must be a real sweetheart of a guy.

“The Yankees will likely express interest in every free agent, especially those free agents they are not immediately seriously intent upon signing.”
—POOMA

[3]
That is one of the funniest things I have ever read.

Would “Anthopoulos” mean “compiler of men?”  That would be a fabulous name for a GM…

If I had thought about that for more than a quarter-second, I would not have pressed “submit” on [6].

“Anthopoulos will also ask the Yankees if Derek Jeter can get him an introduction to Mariah Carey, though he won’t insist on that.”

[6] If we’re getting the “r” for free anyway, more like “son of man”, or maybe “Son of Man”, which would explain the Jesus connection.

Yeah, but without the “r”, isn’t it more like “son of flower”?

Charles Peirce on Tiger Woods - also here.  Kinda interesting in comparison to Jeter and A-Rod’s histories with fame and the media.

I don’t get why the Yankees would cough up Joba, Hughes or Montero for 1 year of Roy Halladay when they could go out and acquire ~80% of Roy Halladay for AJ Burnett money (Lackey, John).  Or when they could do neither, for that matter.

Austin Jackson & some scrubs for Halladay I’d do, but does anyone believe the Jays would take that?

[12] I was thinking almost the same thing, but figuring it still made no sense to trade for Halladay even if Lackey is only 50-60%.

I don’t get why the Yankees would cough up Joba, Hughes or Montero for 1 year of Roy Halladay when they could go out and acquire ~80% of Roy Halladay for AJ Burnett money (Lackey, John).  Or when they could do neither, for that matter.

I’m sure Cashman feels the same way.  I doubt the Yanks will offer too much for Halladay.  If they can get him cheap, prospect-wise, then sure.  If the price is too high, then let the Sox or Phils overpay for him.

Cash won’t give up a draft pick for a reliever and he won’t overpay for Halladay. Francesser said that Cash told him that he wants to run the team like the Twins, but with a much bigger payroll. That means he wants to rely more on player development, not less.

Cash won’t give up a draft pick for a reliever and he won’t overpay for Halladay. Francesser said that Cash told him that he wants to run the team like the Twins, but with a much bigger payroll. That means he wants to rely more on player development, not less.

Still doesn’t explain the lack of arbitration to Damon. Damon rejecting (a pretty much foregone conclusion), and going elsewhere (he will get a multiyear deal somewhere, and may even be worth it) would have given them a draft pick, and an opportunity to develop said draft pick.

I agree that Damon probably would have rejected arbitration, but I also think that he probably would be better off with arbitration and a one year deal next year than with a 2-3 year deal right now.

I am pretty irritated that the Boston Red Sox are going to get a first round draft pick for Billy freakin’ Wagner.

[18] Don’t worry, the Braves aren’t done.  They’re going to sign Bay so they can give the Red Sox their second rounder too.

[16] Either they didn’t believe that Damon’s decision to reject arbitration was a foregone conclusion, or they want to keep him, but they think that by offering Damon arbitration, they would, in effect, be acknowledging that he is worth at least $13 million for one season (because he likely wasn’t going to get his salary cut), and as a result, it would have made it harder to negotiate a contract with Boras because the starting point of the negotiations would have been established. So if they are only willing to pay him, for the sake of argument, $9-$10 million per year, they would have undermined their bargaining position. To that end, Cash also told Francesa that they want Damon (and Matsui) back, but only at a pre-determined price.

If, as Cash has said, they intend to lower the payroll, given their pre-existing contractual commitments, and also allocating $10 million to Pettitte and a few million for raises to the young players, $3-$5 million saved may be necessary in order to stay within their budget, especially if they want to add another high-priced player.

That aside, as I have said, I would have offered Damon arbitration.

[19] - That’s better than Bay signing with someone else and the RS ending up with 2 first rounders.

I don’t get why the Yankees would cough up Joba, Hughes or Montero for 1 year of Roy Halladay when they could go out and acquire ~80% of Roy Halladay for AJ Burnett money (Lackey, John).  Or when they could do neither, for that matter.

To be fair, fangraphs had Halladay at 7.3 WAR last year, to Lackey’s 3.9.  That’s almost twice as much value.  Lackey’s also had some arm issues the last couple of years, while I think Halladay’s arm is in pretty good shape (correct me if I’m wrong).

The other big factor is whether or not the Yankees have to start thinking in terms of a “championship window” that could be closing as Jeter, Mo, Posado, Pettitte, and ARod continue to age.  Two or three more 7 WAR seasons from Halladay could bring home 2 or 3 more titles for this group of players.  To be sure, 4 WAR from Lackey, or from Joba and/or Hughes COULD bring similar results.  But putting Halladay between CC and AJ in the rotation, that’s going ALL IN, which may be the right play.

I know this is a faux pas around here, but the 1 comment in this article is funny, and considering that SG was also interviewed by this site, it should be ok.

http://www.yankeeist.com/2009/12/yankeeist-interview-with-was-watchings.html

... I meant the 1 comment in the comments section.

“The other big factor is whether or not the Yankees have to start thinking in terms of a “championship window” that could be closing as Jeter, Mo, Posado, Pettitte, and ARod continue to age. “

The Yankees never plan on having the “championship window” close.  Their marketing machine and payroll can’t allow it.

That’s why the urgent need to keep Montero/Hughes/Joba.  To replace the core (if they develop as hoped) or provide the cheap average regulars that will allow them to pay elite FA’s to replace the stars as they fade.

[21] It was a joke.

[25] Exactly.  Trading away all of your best young players to try to go “all in” with the current core does not guarantee any more championships in the next couple of years, but does guarantee that the window will close.

[24] Priceless.

I kinda <strike>wonder if</strike> hope that that’s a quote from some movie a la “When the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor”.

or maybe a too subtle allusion.

[28] Doubt it. It screams “Famous italian painter, must be Leo”.  Actually, I´d guess that if you ever polled people on who painted it, this would be by far the most common answer.

The Yankees never plan on having the “championship window” close.  Their marketing machine and payroll can’t allow it.

Trading away all of your best young players to try to go “all in” with the current core does not guarantee any more championships in the next couple of years, but does guarantee that the window will close.

Okay, I hear you guys, but I’m going to keep pushing.

While adding Halladay doesn’t guarantee any championships, it would seem to virtually guarantee that the Yankees would be championship CONTENDERS for the next 2-3 years at least, and that’s even if they traded all of Joba, Hughes, Montero, and Jackson to complete the deal.  But they won’t have to trade all those guys.  They should be able to hold onto at least two of them.  So now they’ve got a rotation of CC, Halladay, AJ, maybe Pettitte, and whomever of Hughes or Joba (or Kennedy) doesn’t get traded.  So… what are they worried about at this point?  2013?  Because I’m thinking that rotation helps them meet their competitive goals well into 2012 (when Roland Emerich tells me the world is going to end, anyway), at which time they should be looking to the next generation of prospects, anyway.

[31] The analysis can’t be made in a vacuum.  We know Halladay costs $15.75M for 1 year, plus the bounty in prospects. You potentially get some of it back with the draft pick compensation, but that’s certainly not a guarantee (and if there’s one area where I am wishy washy on Cashman, it’s the draft.) So let’s say after all the pluses and minuses, it comes out to $22M in 2010 value. How much better are you off with Halladay, as opposed to say, signing both Bedard and Harden for $11M each on 1 year deals, and they end up each pitching only half of the season? I just don’t see this as the type of move the Yankees need to be making. Maybe if Halladay had 2 years left on his deal and was 26. Or if we were talking about prospects that were blocked (which I’d say would be at 1B, 2B and 3B for this team.)

“they’ve got a rotation”

They’ve got a very expensive rotation to go with their very expensive lineup, both of which are older than in the keep-the-prospects scenario, in which they were nearly as likely contenders in any case (or perhaps the $17 to Halladay means they don’t acquire needed depth in e.g. the outfield).  And they miss out on the chance to sign Halladay for no prospects in one year, and the chance to try for King Felix or Lee or whoever.

We’ll have to see what a monte carlo thinks Halladay is worth to the Yankees in the PS, but I suspect it’s still more or less rolling dice with Doc.

The most I’d consider for Halladay is Chamberlain and Jackson, and then only if it included a three or four year extension.  I’d still probably say no.

On a side note, MLBNetwork had an AL Plays of the Year hour long show. It was broken down into different categories: HR, Rallies, OF defense, SS defense, 2B defense, individual performances, plays at the plate, milestones,
pitcher defense, bloopers, 1B defense, 3B defense,
and moments. Each category featured one play that was the top whatever for the year.

Here are the positive Yankee related ones they choose to include:
ARod’s walk-off against the Red Sox
ARod’s HR of Fuentes (S*ck it, Scoscscia!) (HR of the Year)
Cano robbing the White Sox during the Mitre/Gaudin one-hitter
Matsui’s game 6
ARod’s 6th inning in the last game of the regular season
Jeter passing Gehrig
Mo’s 500th save (Milestone of the Year)
Pettitte sliding to grab the bunt and throw to first against the A’s
Joba’s bellyflop (Pitcher defensive play of the year)
Swisher getting ejected
Swisher’s face covered in pie (both Swisher items were “bloopers”)
Teix making a sliding catch against the Jays
ARod dives to tag Kinsler who had strayed to far off 3B
Porcello beats up Youkliss
Damon’s double steal in game 4
Yankees win WS (Moment of the Year)

“While adding Halladay doesn’t guarantee any championships, it would seem to virtually guarantee that the Yankees would be championship CONTENDERS for the next 2-3 years at least”

Barring a slew of devastating injuries or rank stupidity, they are virtually guaranteed to be championship contenders for the next 2 or 3 years.

Going beyond 2010, you’ll be paying Halladay full market price.  Why not just add Holliday’s 6 WAR and save the young guys?  The money is going to be similar, there’s a greater need in LF than SP, and I’m confident Montero or Chamberlain or Hughes is going to give us more than 1 WAR per season over the next 2-3 years.

The Yankees may well overpay to some degree for Halladay to take advantage of Jeter, Alex, Mo, and Po’s remaining prime years, but they won’t do something crazy.

The argument seems to be boiling down to this:

A. NYA shouldn’t do anything crazy, which would include any trade that includes Montero and offering more than, say, Joba and AJ (for many of us, including me, offering Joba/Hughes at all would be far too much).

B. Toronto will not do it for less than something crazy for PR reasons.

If that’s true, then the only answer is that it would be best NOT to do it unless Toronto asks for something that takes into account not only the identity of the player, but the additional facts that (i) the buyer gets only one year at a good rate, and (ii) they’re not doing anything with that year of Halliday, so it’s worth less to them than it would be to NYA or Bos or LAoE.

In other news, Francesa completely fails to understand Henry’s anti-NYA rant as a PRO-NYA rant (?!), and as a pro-big-market-team rant.

WP, I’m finally making use of that material on hybridization you gave me, what, 2 years ago?  Thanks.

Hah.  Excellent, Frog.  Send it to me when you’re done, I’d be interested in seeing.

Apropos.  Had a hard time explaining this to Rilkekind, who came across it in his continual peregrinations through the youtube animal video Hilbert space.

Incidentally, if someone can tell me what that beautiful blue thing at 2:10 is I’d be grateful.

The Yankees may well overpay to some degree for Halladay to take advantage of Jeter, Alex, Mo, and Po’s remaining prime years, but they won’t do something crazy.

Too late for that.  All of them are past their primes now.  None of them have prime years left.

Did you know that Voronoff is immortalized in an e e cummings poem as “the famous doctor who inserts / monkeyglands in millionaires a cute idea n’est-ce pas?”

“None of them have prime years left.”

After Jeter’s 09 and Posada’s 07, not much would surprise me. Also every year of Mo’s career.

[46] Seems like they’ve been taking monkey glands.  After all, Yeats tried it.

Too late for that.  All of them are past their primes now.  None of them have prime years left.

They may be past their peak years, but they are not past their prime years.

Considering that Arod was observed limping around the bases this year, is there any reason to think that he won’t improve on defense next year (not to mention play a whole season)?

[47] Yeats was my first thought when I saw “Voronoff”, but I just looked it up and it looks to me like he had something else done - the Steinach operation, something like a botched vasectomy I guess.

[49] See the last line there.  Collectively fans think ARod will improve by 2.5 WAR next year.

Hmm.  7.3 WAR for Halladay last year to 3.9 for Lackey.  So last year, Lackey was 53.4% of Halladay.  I’m not sure one would project 7 WAR going forward for Roy, but then it’s possible Lackey wouldn’t be projected at 4 either…

There is a deal that makes sense for the Yankees.  I’m not sure what it is, but my instinct is that anything that involves Joba, Hughes or Montero is too much.

If getting Roy Halladay for his age 33+ seasons means sacrificing young guys who are shaping up to be the next core… no.  Even if it means the Red Sox get him.

Halladay pitched innings 239 innings, 7.46 IP/GS
Lackey pitched 176.1 innings, 6.52 IP/GS.

There is a deal that makes sense for the Yankees.  I’m not sure what it is, but my instinct is that anything that involves Joba, Hughes or Montero is too much.

I’m really getting into a “wait and see” mode.  I doubt he’ll be traded before January.  Some things we (should) know by then - is Pettitte coming back?  If not (or even if), did they sign another starter who can be reasonably expected to put up 3+ WAR next year?  E.g. Lackey or even Randy Wolf would fit that.  A guy like Ben Sheets - while I wouldn’t mind having him for the right deal - wouldn’t. 

Halladay probably WILL cost one of Joba/Hughes.  If you don’t have a #2/#3 in front of those two, trading one to get Halladay and you’re still short a pitcher.  If you do have the #2/#3, there’s less need for Halladay, especially if you can get a reclamation like Sheets to agree to begin the year on the DL.  Though IF (not sure if I’m there) you want to go “all in” for 2010 I’d recommend trading Joba (and little else) for Halladay.

Though IF (not sure if I’m there) you want to go “all in” for 2010 I’d recommend trading Joba (and little else) for Halladay.

To clarify, that’s if you already have Pettitte or someone in the #3, and you still want to get Halladay.  If Joba is the #3 and you want to get Halladay to push AJ and everyone else down a spot, Joba stays.

Sam Borden has a posting over at Lohud about Yankee salary though; getting Halladay probably also means Melky is in LF and Gardner in CF, with Miranda as a DH.

If that’s all in, I’m for all out.

Or at least somewhat out.
Out enough to prevent giving up Joba, Hughes or Montero.

I agree that if getting Doc means giving up Joba AND making Melky, Gardner, and Miranda FT starters, even with the best rotation in baseball (CC/Doc/AJ/BattleCat/Hughes), I want no part of that WOE.