Good deal.  I’m happy with the rotation now.

All we need is an OF, preferably RH, and a mid-range DH (Branyan, N Johnson) and we’re ready for Spring Training.

Yay Andy!

All we need is an OF, preferably RH, and a mid-range DH (Branyan, N Johnson) and we’re ready for Spring Training.

Matt Holliday is a RH OF. Matsui is a mid-range DH.

[3]
Hear, hear!
(...Mr. Cashman?  You do hear, yes?)

yankees.com reports that Pettitte has signed again. One year, 11.75 million. Dassit.

now I really hope they don’t get any more starters in front of Joba/Hughes. I’m excited for watching them make ~50-60 starts.

“Matt Holliday is a RH OF. Matsui is a mid-range DH. “

Yes to Holliday, no to Matsui.  I want someone that can play in the field sometimes, just to be able to rest guys, and give some injury depth.

If Branyan can fake 3B for 20 G’s (the limited UZR stats suggest he’s bad, but not horrible) he would be my favorite.

1 yr. 11.75M is about what we all expected.  No surprises here.

[3]  Anyone else worried about SP depth?  Joba/Hughes as the 4/5 makes me nervous.  Not to mention AJ’s injury history and Andy being a year older.  I’d be open to shopping Joba/Hughes + Melky for ????.  I don’t know what that gets me, but I’m open to it. 

I’d love a Holliday/Granderson/Swish outfield.  I’d be good with Damon as DH as well, but Matsui is an excellent alternative.

“now I really hope they don’t get any more starters in front of Joba/Hughes. I’m excited for watching them make ~50-60 starts. “

Concur.  That’s my biggest reason to want Holliday, to preclude Halladay financially.

“I’d be open to shopping Joba/Hughes + Melky for ????.”

For what?  An older more expensive SP who’s not likely to be any better than Joba/Hughes?  Pass.

Joba could suck again, you never know. I doubt anybody expected an ERA+ of 90 for him last year.

Are we scrapping the “offseason thread” idea? I’m ok with that.

BTW, love the quote you guys picked for Joba on B-R.

[12]  Sure, Joba could suck.  But it’s not like no young SPs with great stuff ever emerge after 2 mediocre years.

The SP you trade for could get hurt/suck too.  You’re not getting Halladay or Felix Hernandez for Joba/Melky.

[11]  I imagine Halladay is going to be had for about that.  Maybe a few others.  I doubt the Yanks trade Montero.  But bringing in Lackey makes no sense because then one of Joba or Hughes is either in Scranton or the bullpen.  Unless the Yanks see one of them in that role based on injury concern, conditioning problems, fatigue issues, etc.  I can’t speak for what they’re doing up there.

I am not really THAT high on Halladay.  I’d welcome him at the right price, but he is getting up there and age and is going to cost a lot of money to extend.  Probably market value or a little above that.

I’m not as high on Joba/Hughes the starters as I once was.  Don’t get me wrong, I see them 100% as starters, I just don’t know how long it will be before they are effective, if that day ever comes.  I am just nervous about the lack of depth (and losing IPK doesn’t change my stance.  I didn’t expect much from him anyway) and would prefer to upgrade the position IF POSSIBLE.  I would almost rather upgrade SP than I would the outfield.  Pitching wins, etc.

[15] I wouldn’t mind getting more depth, but I’d like to get it behind Phoba Hughberlain, not in front of him. I wouldn’t mind getting a few more Mitre/Gaudin types.

[15]  Runs are runs, saved or allowed.

They still have Gaudin, Mitre, Aceves and McAllister as SPs #7-9.  They can also always acquire a SP in a mid-season salary dump if they have to.

I’d MUCH, MUCH rather start the season with Joba/Hughes as #4/5 than Melky as my LF.

IMHO, you have to let Joba and Hughes develop.  Give them their 30 GS this year no matter what.  If it costs us the WS, but they develop into good or better SPs it’s worth it.  We can’t expect to win the WS every year.

[17] edit:  make that “scored or allowed”

[13]
Yankz, what quote?

these concerns about Halladay’s age are getting way overblown.  he’s 33.  what reasons are there to believe he won’t be great for the next 4 seasons?

i’d love to see a 4 year projection from SG just so we can stop throwing out this boogeyman.

note: that doesn’t mean they should trade the farm for him, and that there aren’t scenarios that do and don’t make sense, but this idea that Halladay is “not likely to be any better than Joba/Hughes” is completely nuts.

if that wasn’t in reference to Halladay, i apologize, but i see absolutely no evidence that the cliff is looming for Roy Halladay.

[20] Hughberlain has an extra decade left in him though.

[15] “Runs are runs, saved or allowed.”

On average.  To a team with RA<RS, it’s better to improve the RA if $/RA = $/RS.  (Consider the limit where RA=0.)

[20]  “if that wasn’t in reference to Halladay, i apologize”

Don’t worry, it wasn’t.  I was talking about the SP you could get for Joba + Melky.  That SP ain’t Halladay, or anyone close to that.

If you could get Halladay for Joba + Melky, or Hughes + Melky, or Montero + Melky, with an extension, you do it in a heartbeat.

I’m against giving up Montero AND Hughes/Joba for Doc.  Any one of them and filler is fine.

[22] - Yes, but when you’re talking about real-world teams in a environment where winning% are between 0.400-0.600, it’s safe to say that the limits of projecting future saved runs/scored runs mean that “runs are runs”.

[17]  I am glad you see the potential ramifications of starting those two all year.  I’d be fine with that as well.  I was under the impression that we, being Yankee fans and all, WEREN’T okay with not winning the World Series

But now that you’ve made it clear that you are fine with not winning it all next year, I completely agree with you.  I want to see both Joba and Hughes start all year, but I am also content with the fact that if that happens, the team will probably contend for a playoff spot, but not win the World Series.

If this team wants to bring another title(s) to the Bronx, I would say the best bet would be to solidify the rotation rather than adding a bat, but that’s just me.  I’ve long since been a believer of the Cash-man.  I trust that what he does will be best for the team.

Hughberlain has an extra decade left in him though.

ok, but they only have 4 years until free agency.  isn’t that a more accurate comparison?  and one of those 4 years, 2010, may be another “stepping stone” season of sub-dominance.  NTTAWW, and i certainly have the patience to experience those growing pains as a fan, but it needs to be considered.

again, not saying i want to trade those guys, but anything past 5 years in baseball terms might as well be an eternity.  especially for a team as rich as the Yankees. 

[23]  well, there you go.  i’m not sure i agree that Joba couldn’t be the centerpiece of a Halladay trade, but if that’s your premise, i’m ok with the conclusion.  i’m not really interested in trading Montero either.

I agree that Cashman and the Yanks should have some sort of SP depth if they go with Hughes and Chamberlain in the rotation from the start of the season.  Gaudin, Mitre, Nova, etc. can only go so far.  I’d stay away from a rehab project like Sheets, but I’d be kicking the tires on Kelvim Escobar. 

He can start, relieve and he’s had success in the AL.  If his medical records and scouting reports are good, sign him to an incentive-laden deal and let him start out in the BP.  He can stay there or switch to the rotation if needed.

From LoHud:

Steve Henson has reported that the Yankees are planning to take hard-throwing right-hander Arquimedes Caminero. Baseball America has called Caminero, “one of the best arms available with premium arm strength.” He could be a legitimate bullpen option. My only hesitation in thinking the Yankees might go after him is that the Yankees chose not to protect two of their own “premium arm strength” right handers, Grant Duff and Kevin Whelan. Maybe Caminero is a lot better, I honestly don’t know. He’s barely pitched above short season ball.

[25]  I’m fine if we don’t win a WS, but I don’t think starting Joba/Hughes all year precludes it at all.  I expect both of them to be average to above SPs next year.

If not, there will be plenty of teams looking to shed salary this year.  If we start with the CC/AJ/Andy/Joba/Hughes rotation, and after injuries, ineffectiveness, and trying out the Gaudin/Mitre/McAllister options, they’re short an arm in July, they’ll go and get one.

Pete- look at joba’s baseball reference sponsorship.

these concerns about Halladay’s age are getting way overblown.  he’s 33.  what reasons are there to believe he won’t be great for the next 4 seasons?

You think he’s going to sign a three year extension?  I’m not worried about the next four seasons, it’s seasons 5-7 that concern me.

I imagine Halladay is going to be had for about that.  Maybe a few others.

“About that and maybe a few others” is vague enough to be close enough.  But I doubt that Melky specifically would be part of a Halladay package.  They seem to want guys who play different positions and have more controlled years left.

maybe Caminero will be flipped? i can’t see him sticking on the 25 all year if he hasn’t been above A ball, but they obviously were targeting this guy when they traded Bruney.

either way, is anyone really worried about losing Whelan?

ps.  it would be awesome if a guy named Arquimedes could throw a screwball…

Steve Henson has reported that the Yankees are planning to take hard-throwing right-hander Arquimedes Caminero.

In the Rule 5?  And keep him on the 25-man roster all season?  That would be, ah, surprising.

Pettitte resigned, $11.75MM.  Solid.

So the rotation is now CC-AJ-BC-JC-PH, with Gaudin as the 6th starter/long man.  That’s fine, though I would prefer one of the upside signings (Sheets, et al) to bolster depth.  You know they will need 6 to 8 starters.  There’s also the possibility they bring back Wang on a minor league deal. 

Escobar… interesting.  There’s somebody I hadn’t thought about.

it would be awesome if a guy named Arquimedes could throw a screwball…

Eureka!

You think he’s going to sign a three year extension?  I’m not worried about the next four seasons, it’s seasons 5-7 that concern me.

conversely, you think someone is going to give him a 6 year extension?  i think that is equally unlikely.

these concerns about Halladay’s age are getting way overblown.  he’s 33.  what reasons are there to believe he won’t be great for the next 4 seasons?

I have no good way to format this data in a post so go to Baseball-Reference.com yourself….

Look at the totals for Mussina and Halladay through the age of 32.
Look at Mussina’s numbers after the age of 32.

What’s the payroll at after all these moves in the past two days?  How much more will the Yankees have to spend?

I’d like pitching depth too, but i don’t think they’ll be able to afford it.  I think they get one big hitter (either at LF or DH, but hopefully a DH who can play LF too), and then that’s it.

Also, i’m really against Nick Johnson as the DH.  Tex is the least likely to need time off or get hurt.  the DH has to be able to either play the OF or a poor third base.

Wolf to Brewers.
Andy passes his physical.
Granderson trade still on the permanent verge.

If you gave Arquimedes a lever long enough he could win the Cy Young-but no way you can keep him on 25 man all season

I, for one, don’t believe the Yankees talk about payroll for 2010.  I *do* believe they are looking to avoid major long-term deals, sure.  But I think if they can get a Ben Sheets on a short-term deal for reasonable money, they do it even if it puts them over some number they’ve claimed they want to stay under.

When I hear Brian Cashman talk about reducing payroll, I hear “Bubba Crosby is our Centerfielder.”  It’s possible, but I find it unlikely.  Again, I think they are correctly trying to avoid additional long-term deals, having splurged last year.

Look at the totals for Mussina and Halladay through the age of 32.
Look at Mussina’s numbers after the age of 32.

is that how we do projections now?

From Fox:

Rich Harden is drawing interest from a number of teams. On Wednesday afternoon, one source explained why: He is comfortable signing a one-year contract that would give him the opportunity to show that he’s healthy before reentering the market next winter.

Much of the interest in Harden has come from the American League, the source said, with the Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox being the most serious contenders

I feel better about the Granderson trade after reading weag’s post on the previous thread demonstrating that his road splits v. LHP weren’t terrible.

As far as adding Holliday or Halladay or whatever, the problem they may face is their pre-existing salary commitments for 2011.

It’s how “we” do them.  It’s not how SG and others do them for our edification, though.

If Branyan can fake 3B for 20 G’s (the limited UZR stats suggest he’s bad, but not horrible) he would be my favorite.

Branyan can also fake LF and RF and 1B! I really have liked this Branyan idea for a while, but wonder if he would take a one year deal. I’d think with his power, some team desperate for pop would offer him a multiyear deal, unless the market is really depressed on these non-elite FA.

I’d be kicking the tires on Kelvim Escobar.

I like that idea as well, since it adds depth behind Phoba Hughberlain, instead of in front of them/him. Sheets or Harden add depth in front of Phoba Hughberlain and gives Carardiman an excuse to let one of them pitch teh ate to start the season, and let’s be honest if either of Joba/Hughes gets put in a set-up role to start the season, they WILL NOT be escaping it all season.

So, signing depth in front of Hughes/Joba means you are adding one SP and subtracting one. In other words, signing Sheets or Harden = signing a set-up man and not adding SP depth.

Escobar on the otherhand has relieved in the past and would probably be more open to starting the season in the BP and waiting for an opportunity to start.

Now that they traded Coke, and probably don’t need two LHP to start the season the BP could start out as:
Mo
Marte
Robertson
Aceves
Melancon
Escobar
Gaudin

the DH has to be able to either play the OF or a poor third base.

why?  why does everyone keep saying this?

on the days you want to DH A-Rod or Posada or Jeter, why not just sit the guy you signed to DH?  aren’t you still better off the other 100+ games? 

why would you take an inferior hitter just to have a marginal offensive upgrade during the 20 games that A-Rod needs to DH? 

this “rotating DH” idea is way overblown.

there is room on an AL roster for a pure DH.

conversely, you think someone is going to give him a 6 year extension?  i think that is equally unlikely.

Yeah, I don’t see where it’s written in stone that Halladay gets a six-year extension.  I’m thinking five years at 20-25M per year could get it done.  So you’d have him from ages 33-38, a similar time-frame to when the Yankees had Mussina, who worked out well.

I guess I’m not too worried about anything right now.  I mean, should I be worried about the Yankees giving up too much for Halladay?  Worst case their rotation is CC, Halladay, A.J., Pettitte, and Joba-or-Hughes until Andy decides to retire?  I’m worried about 2014, when Halladay and CC may be getting old, but A.J. and Pettitte will be off the books?

The Yankees are in a great position right now, and will be going forward whether they acquire Halladay or not.

Wolf to Brewers, “I am hungry.”

/Simon Le Bon’d

Branyan: back problems scare me.  Also, Ramiro Pena can “fake” hitting while fielding well at 3B, and the combo probably equals Branyan hitting and faking 3B.  Branyan had a great first half and then regressed.  He was a good pickup by the Mariners, no question, but I’d much rather have one of the other DH options.

and will be going forward whether they acquire Halladay or not.

Meant: “and will continue to be in a great position going forward…”

For those that were still reading at the end of my post.

who said anything about an inferior hitter?  I was talking about being against Nick Johnson, not Albert Pujols.  I would like Damon to be the DH, with Melky/Gardner starting in the OF about 60% of the time.  I’m very bearish on Posada and am expecting him to fall off a defensive cliff.  POOMA of course, but i expect him to need a lot of time at DH.

I looked at Halladay some more.  Damn, he’s awesome.  Like really, really, really awesome.

I have little doubt he’ll stay quite valueable.  I also have little doubt that his best years are behind him.  I’m not sure what that adds up to, but I would not part with The Jesus.

He was a good pickup by the Mariners, no question, but I’d much rather have one of the other DH options.

Yeah, Branyan would be fine, but are we so sure he’d be considerably cheaper and/or better than Matsui at this point?

on the days you want to DH A-Rod or Posada or Jeter, why not just sit the guy you signed to DH?

Because I would rather have Branyan’s bat in the lineup against RHP when ARod/Teix/LF/Swisher need a day off at DH. Pena would still get his PA at SS/2B/and for ARod when its a LHP. Now I have no idea how many extra runs that is worth, if any considering Branyan’s D would cancel out some of his bat and it would only be 100 or so PA.

For what it’s worth, 2010 CHONE projection for Halladay:

Roy Halladay (33) 30 starts, 215 IP, 217 H, 41 BB, 175 Ks, 18 HR, 6 HBP, 91 ,R 84 ER, 3.52 ERA, 60 Runs over Replacement.

Others of note:

C.C. Sabathia 29 30 30 205 196 50 177 19 7 87 80 3.51 57
A.J. Burnett 33 29 29 181 176 80 172 21 9 95 87 4.33 32
Joba Chamberlain 24 27 27 145 141 62 137 17 8 75 69 4.28 27
Phil Hughes 24 22 22 116 110 41 108 13 5 56 52 4.03 25
Andy Pettitte 38 30 30 185 192 66 139 16 4 90 83 4.04 34

I like Branyan as a DH option.  His back is no worse than Matsui’s knees, he’s only slightly worse as a hitter, offers a ton more defensive flexibility, and should be cheaper.

Escobar is intriguing.  I’d also add Duchscherer as a similar option.  Injury issues, but can start or relieve.

you think someone is going to give him a 6 year extension?  i think that is equally unlikely.

I think a six year extension is a good deal more likely than a three year extension, although I will concede that a five year extension is far more likely than either a three or a six.  But now we’re quibbling.  The point is that one needs to consider some number of years beyond the next four.

why?  why does everyone keep saying this?

Because flexibility is a good thing.  You need to back up every position on the field, and you only have three or four guys to do it with.  I agree that there is room for a pure DH, and I agree that the DH can also take a day off now and then.  But that doesn’t mean that it’s a bad thing if your regular DH can play the OF and/or an IF corner in the event of an injury.  OTOH, I’d stay away from Branyan.

[54] The thing Matsui brings that Branyan doesn’t is Matsui isn’t really affected by LHP. Which might be important to a team that just acquired a CF who doesn’t have the greatest track record against LHP.

ok, but what player exists that is a better hitter than Johnson/Matsui/Thome etc. and can play 3B or the OF? 

i read this as saying you would rather have someone like, say, Hinske filling the DH roster spot so that we don’t have to play Pena’s bat for the 20 games that A-Rod has to DH.  but then you have Hinske instead of Matsui for the rest of the time.   

i guess my point is this:  if you are resigning Damon to the DH spot anyway, why not just sign Matsui for less $$ and presumably less years?

I’m thinking five years at 20-25M per year could get it done.

That still covers two years beyond “the next four.”  Right?

More 2010 CHONE projections:

John Lackey 31 29 29 186 184 51 153 21 10 88 81 3.92 37
Rich Harden 28 24 24 132 115 57 147 16 5 63 58 3.95 25
Erik Bedard 31 18 18 105 93 40 111 11 4 47 43 3.69 23
Ben Sheets 31 19 19 114 117 31 81 12 1 56 52 4.11 20
Kelvim Escobar 34 14 14 84 82 33 65 7 3 40 37 3.96 16
Justin Duchscherer 32 14 14 77 77 24 57 8 4 38 35 4.09 14

ted, good point.  Matsui’s lack of platoon split is a nifty thing.

If we end up with a DH who has one, the bench becomes even more important (ideas like Reed Johnson become interesting, ugly factor notwithstanding).

FWIW, i was not considering Branyon a serious 3B option.  if you guys think that is a realistic option, i guess i could see how it might work.

but he’s 34, coming off a back injury, and played no 3B last year.

Yup, yup. 

[62]  Those are pretty decent lines for Escobar, Duchscherer.  I wouldn’t mind one of those guys as a long man/Joba & Hughes backup.  Hell, I wouldn’t mind both if the price is right, and the medicals check out.

i guess my point is this:  if you are resigning Damon to the DH spot anyway, why not just sign Matsui for less $$ and presumably less years?

I guess it would depend on how much less money and how many fewer years.  There seems to be some sort of emerging consensus that Damon will cost at least 2/$20M while Matsui can be had for 1/$5M.  If that’s true, then I’m with you.  But I don’t think the spread is really that big.  How much smaller it is, I have no idea.

If the regular OF is going to be Cabrera/Granderson/Swisher, then I’d rather have Damon to mostly DH and play LF once a week to minimize Granderson’s exposure to LHP and keep Melky and Nicky from wearing down.  After all, it’s not just old guys who need rest.

A Gardbrera/Granderson/Swisher starting OF scares me, though I admit there may be merit to going all-in on defense if you’re planning on Joba & Phil in the rotation full time. 

I prefer a (near) full-time LFer and a (near) full-time DH.  I understand the flexibility arguments, but I want as few PAs taken by Ramiro Pena, Frankie Cervelli, TSBG and the Melkman as possible.  Roughly in that order of avoidance.

Offer both Damon and Matsui one year contracts, and sign whichever one accepts first.

[64]  Branyan started 33 Gs at 3B in 2008 and 24 in 2007.  His career UZR is -7/150 (only 281 GS), and 2007-2008 were actually better than that.

If the back is good enough that you’d want him as a hitter, I think he could give you the 15-20 Gs you’d want to spell ARod, at a defense in the -5 to -10 range.

He’s also an average to slighly below average corner OF for his career.  Not that you’d want him playing out there too much, but 20-30 Gs could come in very handy in case of injury.

That defensive flexibility adds a lot of value over a pure DH like Matsui.  All this depends, of course, on the medical evaluation of his back.

That still covers two years beyond “the next four.” Right?

not necessarily.  they could tear up his 2010 contract.  give him a nice raise in 2010 to keep the max length to 5 years. 

but you are right, we’re quibbling.

Re: CHONE, I have to say, ALL of those projections look pretty good to me.  Which makes me think they’re a tad optimistic?

Nick Johnson would likely be a significant offensive upgrade over Matsui; I think his power comes back in NYS, and it that lineup.

He’s also a near perfect #2 hitter for this team, and though he doesn’t offer much defensive flexibility, he could at least play 1B if Tex misses a month or something.  Matsui can’t even give you that.

[67] gets a +1 from me.  If Matsui is willing to take only 5 million or so, then he’s also willing to sit a lot to give the older guys rest, so that’s perfect.  I’m also under the asumption that part of 2010’s payroll was already spent on tex in 2009.  AND, I think the Yankees can “coast” (at least by yankees’ standards) after a WS win and with the possibility of Mauer or Halladay being available next offseason.

But I don’t think the spread is really that big.  How much smaller it is, I have no idea.

you’re right, i have no idea either.  i’m making a lot of assumptions.

That defensive flexibility adds a lot of value over a pure DH like Matsui.  All this depends, of course, on the medical evaluation of his back.

agreed, but you still have 2 more non-catcher non-UTI bench spots, right?  why does the same guy have to fill both roles? 

wouldn’t having someone like Hinske on the bench kindof alleviate the problem?  allows you have Matsui as your primary DH, yet avoids a hole in your lineup when you rest an OFer? 

as an aside, Hinske was such a good pickup last year.

Nick Johnson would likely be a significant offensive upgrade over Matsui; I think his power comes back in NYS, and it that lineup.

wOBA:

Matsui: Career:.367 / 09: .378

Johnson: Career: .371 / 09: .373

I don’t think any offensive upgrade would be significant.

Nick Johnson reportedly wants two years.

just to follow up, i think we’re *mostly* all in agreement here.

i’m certainly not AGAINST flexibility, but i just wouldn’t want it be so high a priority that we forego a vastly superior hitter at DH in the quest for the perfect roster construction.

that’s all.

[75]  Sure, it’s just a huge bonus.  If Branyan can cover 3B/RF/LF, you only need one backup OF (CF).  The fourth bench guy can be a pure hitter, regardless of position.  I’d suggest a lefty killer to PH for Granderson, Gardner or Branyan as needed.

Steve Henson has reported that the Yankees are planning to take hard-throwing right-hander Arquimedes Caminero.

At least they won’t take Arquimedes Pozo.

what they REALLY need is a backup catcher who can play 3B. 

think Joe Torre would be interested in coming back?

[76]

“wOBA:

Matsui: Career:.367 / 09: .378

Johnson: Career: .371 / 09: .373

I don’t think any offensive upgrade would be significant.

Nick Johnson reportedly wants two years. “

Yeah, but if you look at their last 3 seasons, it’s NJ 135 OPS+, Matsui 122 OPS+.  Johnson is also OBP heavy (.426 last three yrs.0 so that understates his superiority.  Johnson, like Matsui, has no platoon split issue:  844 OPS vs. RHP, 863 vs. LHP, career.

Plus, Matsui’s five years older with chronically bad knees.

Johnson would also likely benefit from the short RF, and his OBP plays great in the Yankees lineup at #2.

[80] Or one of his guys, like Todd Zeile.

The CHONE line for Bedard is attractive, if one were to believe it.

That .426 OBP does make me drool, I’m not gonna lie.

[81] They both have injury issues. The critical issue from my perspective is length of contract. If OBP Jesus would take a one year deal, I would he happy to have him back.

If Damon is signed he is going to be the regular left fielder without a doubt.
Nick Johnson is going to want more than 1 year and will be hesitant to sign with a team who has no need for a 1B. On top of getting him to sign as a DH is that even that spot will often need to be used to rest our regulars. I can’t see how he would consider NY a good fit.

[22] ” - Yes, but when you’re talking about real-world teams in a environment where winning% are between 0.400-0.600, it’s safe to say that the limits of projecting future saved runs/scored runs mean that “runs are runs”.”

Ok, for what it’s worth I’ve done a toy calculation, and at 0.6 a WAR is worth 0.25 WAR more on defense than offense.  At 0.4 a WAR is worth 0.2 more on offense.  For the Yankees at 0.636 I get 0.35 more on defense.

[86]
“Nick Johnson is going to want more than 1 year and will be hesitant to sign with a team who has no need for a 1B. On top of getting him to sign as a DH is that even that spot will often need to be used to rest our regulars. I can’t see how he would consider NY a good fit. “

I’d give him 2 years if the $$ are right. 2/$12-15M.

Nick Johnson’s only a 130 G/yr. guy himself.  He knows he need his rest to stay healthy.

If he spells Tex 15 games at 1B, with Tex DH-ing half of those (Tex plays about 155 Gs p.a.), and DH’s 115 G’s, that still leaves 40 Gs at DH for Posada and ARod.

Sweeney: The Tiggers wanted Cervelli as part of this deal, NYA made Cervelli a deal-breaker.

Why would Matsui take 5 millions? Makes no sense to me. I think he gets more money from one of the AL West teams.

I am not sure he gets the Abreu treatment. That was one of a kind.

Sweeney also reports that the team values Romine higher than Montero - higher than anyone else in the system.

Sweeney also reports that the team values Romine higher than Montero - higher than anyone else in the system.

I don’t buy it for a second. I think his source has an agenda.

I’d give him 2 years if the $$ are right. 2/$12-15M.

That would leave virtually no room to add a big FA next year if the payroll remains at $200m, unless someone like Swisher is traded.

Sweeney: The Tiggers wanted Cervelli as part of this deal, NYA made Cervelli a deal-breaker.

This makes more sense than Dunn being a deal breaker.

Romine > Montero?  I seriously doubt it.  Romine > Montero as a defensive catcher, perhaps?

I think his source has an agenda. To pump up Romine’s trade value and take a shot at Halladay while keeping The Jesus?

“That would leave virtually no room to add a big FA next year if the payroll remains at $200m, unless someone like Swisher is traded.”

I meant $12-15M total of course.  How is that any different than giving Damon 2/$18-20M?

Can anyone give me a feel for Granderson’s throwing prowess or lack thereof?

I too would like to see Montero have a chance to shine at AAA for NY.  I would very much like to see Halliday go outside of the East.  At the same time unlike the majority of you, I don’t feel comfortable with our four and five starters and as said earlier, Andy’s arm won’t last forever.  The Red Sox took a chance on Smoltz and Penny and neither,though cheap, provided what they wanted. Getting a rehab guy might be a good idea for the right terms, but I would rather get Lackey rather than surrender more young guys. Lackey for more than four yrs. and I wouldn’t go for it. Is Marquis really on the radar? I see him as another Whitson.  They should keep an oar in the water on Roy just to see what the price ultimately will be, but you know it will be hard to make a deal that doesn’t include Joba or Hughes plus Jesus, which is too steep IMO. 

Personally if FORCED to give up one or the other between Joba or Phil, I’d deal Joba. One of these guys may make it as a starter in 2010 but I don’t believe both will materialize.  For some reason, though Chamberlain has more pitches to draw on, I think his arm/shoulder won’t stand up going forward for the typical 180 innings a season.  I think he has the ability to start and has proved it over short periods, just not over a full season.  The best answer is likely to keep them both for at least one more year for further opportunity and evaluation. I just think one or the other is most likely to wind up in the pen again, which as demonstrated in 09 can still be valuable. For that reason I still see Cash getting another starting arm.

[87] - Okay, I looked at it for a theoretical team that scores 900 runs and allows 750 runs (fairly close to 2009 Yanks).  Pythag has that team at a 0.590 winning pct, or 95.6 wins a season.  Adding 10 runs of offense brings that team to a .596 winning pct, or 96.5 wins.  Subtracting 10 runs from the allowed column gives a 0.597 winning pct, or 96.7 wins.  To me, with the limits of predictability of both offense and defense, and the volatility of defense in particular, those are the same number of wins.

How could that be?  What if one knew that Montero would never play an inning except as DH and was 2 years older than claimed?  That Romine is going to pull an inverse Inigo Montoya and announce he’s actually a lefty?

OT—Why aren’t we talking about Guerrero as a DH/outfielder?  I know very little about the man these days—can’t stand the Angels, actively avoid any news about them.  When watching at my father-in-law’s I kind of fall asleep with my eyes open.  Is he toast or something?  Isn’t he available?

That’s VLAD Guerrero, obvi.