I’ll bet Tex can be had for 7/$140m…. maybe 7/$133m. People should not underestimate how this economy will effect prices.

From Lohud, baseball economist Vince Gennaro invited Pete Abe to the final session of a Manhattanville College graduate sports management class he taught, where students presented their final projects.

The students charted the win shares and durability of players on 30 teams. According to their analyses, starting pitching is what really mattered. That corroborates what Cashman has been preaching in recent years. It also limits the commitment he would be willing make to sign Teixeira. I was in the tank for Tex (I am still hoping), but I am reconsidering whether they really need him.

And yet, a player who arguably has negative marginal value just got $18.5M for two years.  If Teixeira is three wins better than Renteria, then the market just said he’s worth something like $36M per year.  Obviously nobody thinks that, but still these things happen.

The fact is that Boras is in no hurry here, and won’t start getting desperate any time soon.  If Teixeira “can be had” for those kinds of dollars and years, it will be because it’s January and the market is still acting like it’s scared off by the 10/$200M tag.  If somebody offers 7/$140M tomorrow, Boras starts negotiating up from there, and the economy could quickly stop mattering.

It’s just like ebay—if you’re going to win with a low-ball offer, you’ve got to swoop in at the last minute; bid to soon, and you just motivate the competition.

Damn.  A misplaced antecedent and ‘to’ instead of ‘too’ in the same post.  Need more coffee.

In regards to Vince Gennaro, I don’t deny the overall premise but I do disagree that it should drive the way teams approach the off-season.

As they said it is healthy and deep pitching that makes the difference however pitchers in general are less likely to remain healthy than hitters. Spending money on free agent pitching doesn’t change that fact so spending money on starting pitchers is a less effective use of money than spending money on hitters. Given that you should focus on drafting and developing a lot of young starting pitchers and do most of your free agent spending on offense.

And all this talk about the collapsing baseball economy is hogwash.  Right now all the pitchers are waiting on C.C to set the market for pitching.  C.C. is waiting on Teix because he wants to see if the Angels will be in on him.  All the other hitters are waiting on Teix to set the market for hitters.  Teix is a boras client and they NEVER sign before the winter meetings.  Once someone starts signing it’s going to set off a flurry of activity and people will get their money.

A misplaced antecedent and ‘to’ instead of ‘too’ in the same post.  Need more coffee.

Nobody thought you meant Renteria is worth $36M per year.

All the other hitters are waiting on Teix to set the market for hitters.

I think there really is a depressed market for hitters like Dunn and Burrell.  Even though some (or most) teams had been looking at defensive value to evaluate a player, I think you could always count on one team to say “damn the torpedoes” and sign a defensive liability to a big contract.  I’m just not sure that’s going to happen this year.

How many of us thought that Abreu was a risk to accept arbitration?  I sure didn’t.  It will be interesting to see what he gets, but I bet it’s below $10M per year, and not for more than 2 years.

Nobody thought you meant Renteria is worth $36M per year.

Well, yeah, but Sister Mary Catherine would never accept that as an excuse.

I think there really is a depressed market for hitters like Dunn and Burrell.  Even though some (or most) teams had been looking at defensive value to evaluate a player, I think you could always count on one team to say “damn the torpedoes” and sign a defensive liability to a big contract.  I’m just not sure that’s going to happen this year.

But does that really constitute a depressed market, or simply a more accurate valuation?  Or for that matter, maybe a less accurate valuation, since Dunn and Burrell aren’t really that bad defensively.

How many of us thought that Abreu was a risk to accept arbitration?  I sure didn’t.  It will be interesting to see what he gets, but I bet it’s below $10M per year, and not for more than 2 years.

I still don’t think he was a risk to accept arbitration.  Most were surprised the Yankees passed on $3M risk he would accept. 

And Abreu will get a $24/2 or $30/3 deal.

In response to sd2528:

As they said it is healthy and deep pitching that makes the difference however pitchers in general are less likely to remain healthy than hitters.

Durability was one of the factors that was an explicit component the model.

And all this talk about the collapsing baseball economy is hogwash.

The current downturn is being driven by the reversal of almost two decades of rising leverage throughout the world. There aren’t many asset classes that are have retained their value. Baseball teams have wealthy owners that once had vast investment portfolios outside of baseball. Those portfolios are now half-vast. Baseball is not as well insulated as you might think. There may be some great bargains to be had before the 2009 trade deadline for teams that still have some free cash flow.

But does that really constitute a depressed market, or simply a more accurate valuation?

You’re right, those are two separate issues. I think it’s probably a little of both, but I could be wrong. 

I still don’t think he was a risk to accept arbitration.  Most were surprised the Yankees passed on $3M risk he would accept.

And Abreu will get a $24/2 or $30/3 deal.

I’m not sure the Yanks could have just cut-bait in spring training as easily as that.  The union would file a grievance, they would have to prove that his skills had deteriorated to a substantial degree, and I don’t think they’d win that.  I’d bet that they weren’t considering that an option, and were only considering the possible arbitration award as the downside.

Who’d be interested in Abreu for that money?  Probably the Mets, but I can’t think of any other team.  The Cubs look to be on a tight budget until their ownership issues get resolved.  Maybe the A’s or Rays if the floor falls out, but other than that, it would just be the Mets bidding, and I don’t think Manaya loves his Latino players that much to bid against himself.

—But does that really constitute a depressed market, or simply a more accurate valuation?—

Wait, i thought the conventional wisdom was that talent is actually underpaid when you actually consider how much revenue they bring a team.  in other words, yeah, maybe middle tiered talent is overvalued, but that’s offset by the fact that the elite talent is actually worth a lot more than they get.  That the Arods, Pujols, etc should actually be making a lot more, all thing considered. 

If talent was able to be measured perfectly, and teams were able to perfectly evaluate the ability to increase revenue with talent, and teams didn’t cook their books, and there wasn’t collussion, etc etc etc etc….....wouldn’t salaries go up?

Durability was one of the factors that was an explicit component the model.

Yes but durability isn’t guaranteed by free agent markets.  Pitchers under 25 are still in their injury nexus and as pitchers go into their 30’s they start to break down.  25-30 is the peak age for pitchers and very few pitchers that hit the free agent market are even IN that range let alone going to be in that range for the life of the contract they sign. 

Most pitchers are under control of their original team (or were traded for) for a majority of their 25-30 seasons. 

Free agent bats however are much more dependable.  Therefor you should “draft, develop, and trade for pitchers and buy bats.”

The current downturn is being driven by the reversal of almost two decades of rising leverage throughout the world. There aren’t many asset classes that are have retained their value. Baseball teams have wealthy owners that once had vast investment portfolios outside of baseball. Those portfolios are now half-vast. Baseball is not as well insulated as you might think. There may be some great bargains to be had before the 2009 trade deadline for teams that still have some free cash flow.

I don’t deny that and I don’t deny that baseball will feel it’s impact.  Prices have dropped but there are also a lot of high value contracts that are expiring.  While teams won’t respend that money at a 1:1 ratio they will spend some of it.  I just can’t see the free agent market being in a free fall where players like Abreu are getting deals under $20M total (Buster Olney say he’s be lucky to even get $8M AAV).  I don’t think things are that bad.

Who’d be interested in Abreu for that money?

The Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees (hopefully), O’s, Nationals are looking for bats.  I know there are 6-10 teams trying but not everyone can sign Teix. 

As you said even small market teams like the A’s and Rays are looking to spend.  I doubt they will be in on the Abreu, Pat the Bat, and Dunn market but there is too much interest and money out there for the market to completely collapse to the point that is being talked about. 

I hope I’m wrong (and if I am I will admit it).  The Yankees have a TON of money to spend this year and next year.  I’d love them to load up on cheap deals but I don’t thing things are going to be that cheap.

I just don’t see the market for Abreu to be that robust.  If the Yankees were interested in Abreu for $25-$30M over 2-3 years, the arbitration decision would have been a no-brainer.  The Angels, Dodgers, and Red Sox all have full outfields.  I think the Cubs probably make the most sense, but I’m not sure they’re going to be tossing money around right now.  I honestly don’t know much about where the O’s and nationals stand, so they might be willing to give him that kinds of deal.  It just seems like most of the big-money teams are uninterested, and that’s going to depress his ability to command salary.

There are so many different ways that the Yankese can go that I’m almost starting to feel overwhelmed and frustrated.  I need at least one chip to fall in the near future so that everything else can follow.

maybe middle tiered talent is overvalued, but that’s offset by the fact that the elite talent is actually worth a lot more than they get

Ah, but there’s the rub.  Overpaying for the middle tier is only offset if you have some of that elite stuff.  And lots of times you can’t afford to do both.  And the teams that get outbid for the elite suddenly find a pile of cash burning a hole in their pockets, and start scrambling to get the next best thing.

If the numbers reported were accurate, I don’t see how Furcal could possibly turn down four years/$40 million from the A’s.

CC still can’t wait to be a Yankee. Just can’t find the right pen to sign with.

I truly hope that fatso signs elsewhere. Who wants a $140+ million player who really doesn’t want to be here? Not me. Isn’t it obvious to all and sundry that CC really doesn’t want any part of New York?

Well, it would be a $3M/year pay cut.  It doesn’t matter if Furcal and his agent are the only two people on the planet who think he’s worth more.  They ain’t signing until they’re convinced that they’re wrong.

BTW, it seems like Rosenthal would like to be Furcal’s agent with the suggestion that he expand his market by making it known that he’ll move to second base.  Or maybe he wants Cashman’s job, since he’s pushing a Cano trade and Furcal signing.

Then he’s more of an idiot than he all too often appears to be.  In his current job, he can afford to be almost perpetually wrong.

Don - I ask this in all seriousness. Are you Steve Lombardi? The reason I ask is because your opinions on subjects such as Phil Hughes, Alex Rodriguez, and CC Sabathia are remarkably aligned.

Isn’t it obvious to all and sundry that CC really doesn’t want any part of New York?

There are a few conclusion you can draw from the facts of the situations. The facts are that he has been offered 6/$140M from the Yankees and I think 5/$100M from the Brewers.

IMO, the conclusions that can be reasonably drawn from these *facts* are:

- He doesn’t want to play in NY.
- The Yankees strategy was to start with a huge offer and discourage any other bids, and it worked. Sabathia is countering by holding out to try to get more money somehow.. either by having the Yankees make a bigger offer or seeing if other teams will decide that they want to offer him something.
- He just is waiting because he doesn’t have to make a decision now, and his waiting means nothing.

So, it isn’t *obvious* that he doesn’t want to play in NY. It’s just obvious if you choose to see it that way. Like Steve Lombardi does.

Wait- Lombardi doesn’t want CC and is only “lukewarm” on Tex- WTF?

People like Lombardi want bad things to happen so that they can say, “See, I was right to be so pessimistic.”  I don’t think Don shares that particular personality disorder.  That said, don’t feed the troll.

Don has a sense of humor.  Steve Lombardi is often funny, but not because he means to be.

That said, don’t feed the troll.

Good point.

Hey Don, want a hoagie?
Damon is a trader and I detest Nimrod too.
Trader never fails to crack me up, I’m easily amused.
Hey J- Midshipmen rock aye?

IPK in the winter league:

W   L   ERA   G   GS   CG   SHO   SV   IP   H   R   ER   HR   BB   SO   GO/AO   AVG
2   2   1.56   6   6   1   1   0   34.2   19   6   6   1   12   31   0.79   .164

j—Your post(s) is/are pure rubbish, and I’m being very kind to you.

CC clearly does not want the Yankees. He is, too anyone wih a mind to see, to all and sundry, trying his darndest to get someone, anyone, to offer him 85% of the Yankees over-offer. But if he signs, it will be becasue it is far and away the most money. He’ll take the money, be miserable, and you can take it from there. Or maybe, after reading your posts, you can’t, take it from there that is.

As for Steve, I thought nobody read his blog, going back at least six months ago. 

And truly, don’t feed MC, I think he’s way overweight already, or surely will be by Jan. 1st.

Just say no to Derek Lowe.

Thurm—Rock Hill Farms Bourbon. Sam’s barrel selection. ‘Nuff said.

Don, I don’t think you can rationally be this certain.  For a number of reasons.

I don’t agree that you can know that he desperately hates New York.
We have been told that he prefers CA, but - whether he does or not - why sign quickly without giving the agents the chance to do their thing and sweeten his deal?  Why reach FA without spending some time, as they say, “seeing what’s out there?”  In other words, what is the possible advantage of signing right now?  NYY’s offer isn’t going anywhere, Hank’s rumbling notwithstanding.

Second, even if he doesn’t want to play in NY, does that necessarily, automatically mean that he’ll be miserable if he’s here?  Surely he wasn’t raving with visions of Milwaukee in his head before heading there, but he did pretty well, as it turned out.  And it’s not as though he’s only played in small villages - Cleveland’s hardly NY, but it’s also hardly a small city like Milwaukee, let alone an area as completely devoid of urban settlement as LA.  He doesn’t seem like Randy Johnson to me - couldn’t he discover that it’s not so bad here (or, more accurately, that it’s indescribably, infinitely more cool than any of the other relatively useless places on this continent)?

Chill.  Honestly.

don’t feed MC, I think he’s way overweight already

6’1” 195 (ding)

I’m one of those annoying people who can consume 3,000 calories a day, exercise little, and not gain weight.  Deal with it. 

Chill.  Honestly.

Don is totally chillin’.  He’s just trying to get the rest of us all worked up.  That’s why it’s trolling, and it doesn’t matter if there’s a reasonable argument or three contained in what he says.  It’s all about tone and intent.  And the intent clearly is to provoke anger, not to engage in civil discourse.

In case anybody else would find a NYT article using Win Probability Added amusing: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/sports/baseball/07score.html

In an earlier thread it was argued that Teix will cost as much as CC.  I thought the latter is expected to get more AAV.  But see here - was this conclusion superseded since?

You are comparing an offer for CC to an estimated value for Teixeira.  It’s close enough to say that they are the same.  (Plus there seems to be more interest in Tex and Boras will wait to make sure there is no pie in the sky.)

Is Pete Abe’s latest post not shockingly hypocritical?

Shocking that he didn’t realize he was being hypocritical within a few sentences?  Sure. But hardly outrageous.  He’s ok, if not brilliant.

OK, today’s news should be: NYY signs CC and Tex and trade Cano for a (pre-war) Joe DiMaggio.

Tree - I swear I always thought that “Rosenheck” was a euphemism.

If I understand the objection above, the response from the Pete Abe POV is that ARod should hit more in the post-season (in a series where the Yankees need the runs) - he just doesn’t understand about sample sizes and confirmation bias.

Re Teix vs CC, the post linked in [37] argues that the two are of equal value to us over the time period discussed, a position dismissed in a recent thread.

Just get good starting pitching that can give innings please!

From 97 through 03 the Yankees averaged 1016 innings out of there starting pitchers. They also averaged 99 wins a season during those 7 years!

It’s always going to be about good starting pitching.

Thanks, Dan! That certainly exonerates A-Rod completely.  It also indicts us as idiots - why have we wasted so much time writing about good and bad offensive and defensive non-SP performance?!  Darn…

Just get good starting pitching that can give innings please!

Better defense makes all the pitchers better.

I wonder if good offense makes pitchers better too - less stress, plus the availability of choices with better expectation value in exchange for an increase in the risk of a small score.

Provoke anger? I didn’t call anybody Steve Lombardi!

“plus the availability of choices with better expectation value in exchange for an increase in the risk of a small score.”

I actually didn’t even understand this phrase.  I HOPE it’s only because I’m tired… but probably not!

By which I mean to imply that I probably wouldn’t have understood for reasons other than original inclarity, if that was unclear.  Clear?

Provoke anger? I didn’t call anybody Steve Lombardi! wink

Actually, I asked you if you were Steve Lombardi.. you haven’t responded yet.

[49] Sucky sentence, no question.  The point was that for a low-scoring team pitchers might choose to throw a pitch which 60% of the time yields 0 runs for an inning but 40% of the time 4 runs (for an expectation of 1.6 runs but say about a 75% chance of a win [here I assume 1 run ties->50% chance of win]) but in a high-scoring environment might choose a pitch which yields 1 run 90% of the time and 4 runs 10% of the time (for an expectation of 1.3 runs but if 1 run doesn’t matter then ok).

I hope the Yanks cheer me up this week, because the Jets make me so, so angry. So pathetically, hopelessly angry.

Matt- Jets fan since I was 8. Thats 41 years and perhaps 170 games like today.
I have put away 25 dollars a month since 1983 for the sole purpose of going to the superbowl when they finally make it.
Since its not going to happen, I am going to use that money to put a down payment on a dark blue M5 on my 50th birthday.
I have convinced myself that with a wee bit of discipline any Jets loss can end up making you happy in the long run.
Stop letting them ruin the winter for you. They live and play to suck.
I have 3 Al Toon rookie cards. They will pay for the first tank of premium.

So, I’m reading this Dye for Homer Bailey thing. Revisiting the arbitration issue with Abreu,

Dye:
2008 OPS+ = 126
Career OPS+ = 112
2008 RF ZR = .837
Career RF ZR = .885
2009 Salary = $11.5M
2009 Age: 35

Abreu
2008 OPS+ = 120
Carer OPS+ = 133
2008 RF ZR = .795
Career RF ZR = .872
2009 Salary = $17M (guessing from arbitration)
2009 Age: 35

So, I know speculations like these end up being cheap shots at Cashman, but nevertheless, why couldn’t we pick up Abreu’s option and send him and $6M to the Reds for Homer Bailey?

Re Teix vs CC, the post linked in [37] argues that the two are of equal value to us over the time period discussed, a position dismissed in a recent thread.

I knew I should have gotten you to clarify before responding.  That post was before the Swisher trade, so the baseline for 1B went up, at least for the next year or so.

If a player accepts an offer of arbitration they are treated like a free agent signed and they can’t be traded until after 2 months into the season.

Well, it looks like this is moot as that Dye-Bailey deal is BS.

[56] It has been argued here that getting Swisher makes getting Teix better (though I don’t think I understood the logic).

Forget what the bad-season criteria was, but this is interesting:

Year Ag Tm Lg W   L   G   GS CG SHO GF SV   IP   H   R   ER   HR BB   SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+———————+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—-+—+———+——+——+——+—-+——+——+—-+—-+——-+—-+—-+——-+——-+——+——-+
1998 21 TOR AL   1   0   2   2   1   0   0 0   14.0   9   4   3   2   2   13   0   0   53   0   0 1.93 4.61 239 0.786
1999 22 TOR AL   8   7 36 18   1   1   2 1 149.3 156   76   65 19   79   82   4   6   668   1   0 3.92 4.92 126 1.574
2000 23 TOR AL   4   7 19 13   0   0   4 0   67.7 107   87   80 14   42   44   2   6   349   0   1 10.64 5.07   48 2.202

?

re: 52,

I think good offenses definitely help starting-pitchers accumulate innings.  If it is an 8-1 game and the pitcher has thrown 90 pitches through 7, you probably leave him in to pitch the 8th.  OTOH, if it is 2-1 you probably bring in your setup man(men).

I actually think with big leads though, some pitcher’s ERA may go up.  E.g. in a tight game, the pitcher is more likely to “pitch carefully” (corners, when there are three-balls still through pitches out of zone, etc).  More likely to limit the # of runs scored, but will also run up pitch-count so that in 5 or 6 innings you’re turning it over to the bullpen.  However, if the offense scores 10 runs in the first 3 innings, you’re more likely to throw strikes, even in 3-1 counts.  Lower pitch counts, but maybe more runs scored.  So now instead of 5 IP/2 ER, you may get 7IP/4ER.

That’s the CW anyway.  And I think for at least *some* pitchers that’s true.  Not sure if anyone has done a study of it, and I’ve always meant to (nothing exhaustive), but so far haven’t.  I really think Andy Pettitte fits into that mold, but that’s just me.

Oh, and I saw this George King article today.  Of particular note:

While the Yankees’ focus has been on bolstering a rotation that currently houses Joba Chamberlain (who could land in the bullpen if enough starters are secured)

Thought it was worth a chuckle.  No one anywhere in the Yankees’ organization has said that Chamberlain will even SNIFF the bullpen next year, but still harping on it.  Just amusing.

FWIW, I think Joba will probably have 8-10 appearances in the pen this year.  Only because, they’re probably going to skip him for about 20 starts, and won’t want him to go 9-10 days w/o pitching in a game.  But I certainly don’t think he is going to “land” there.

re—62,  I thought there had been several studies finding little evidence of pitching to the score.  That said, I do think it’s easier to pitch with a big lead.  Less pressure and less need to defend against one and two run strategies.

BTW, every free agent of consequence who was offered arbitration has declined.

So, I know speculations like these end up being cheap shots at Cashman, but nevertheless, why couldn’t we pick up Abreu’s option and send him and $6M to the Reds for Homer Bailey?

Abreu didn’t have an option. He could have been offered arbitration. And if the Reds wanted Bobby Abreu, they’d simply make him a contract offer. And they wouldn’t have to give up Homer Bailey to do so. This leads me to believe they like Jermaine Dye more.

While the Yankees’ focus has been on bolstering a rotation that currently houses Joba Chamberlain (who could land in the bullpen if enough starters are secured)

I thought this was funny too. In the very same article that King expresses concern over signing Cashman’s one prime target, he makes an allusion to a scenario in which the Yankees sign four!!! starters, thus forcing Joba back to the bullpen. Okay, sure.

re—62, I thought there had been several studies finding little evidence of pitching to the score.

There probably have been, I just can’t remember one.  I seem to remember reading one on HBT years ago, but I also remember being dissatisfied by it (possibly the only reason is because it disagreed with something I thought).

The main thing is it may be more a preferance of the pitcher - e.g. I seem to remember a David Wells interview years ago where he stated it was the job of the pitcher in a blowout to get innings, not prevent runs - than anything that “pitchers do”.  Just like Ryne Sandburg believes (or stated during his HOF induction anyway) that sacrificing, moving runners over, etc. is the “right way” to play the game, even then we’re pretty sure players with his abilities are better off trying to hit a HR than bunting a runner over.  It’s hard to use stats to quantify what a player is *trying* to do; we can just use results.  However, newer stuff like Pitch F/X and Hit F/X may be able to help explain more what the player is “trying” to do.

Also, Tigers traded for Laird, meaning that anyone lusting after Saltalamacchia or Teagarden can give it up.

OK, so that’s probable failure in one key team-improvement area - Posada or die at catcher, with Posada seeming far from a certainty.

Did they give up much for Laird?

Well, it’s also probably failure to improve at catcher for Boston as well.  The Tigers gave up Guillermo Moscoso, a 25 year old righty who has struck out 122 in 87 innings, although he’s had shoulder problems and has never pitched above the Eastern League, and Carlos Melo, a 17 year old Dominican pitching pheee-nom.

Thanks, MC.  NB, for the record, that I’m nowhere near the traditional Boston-fanbase-state of being more worried about the other team being harmed than about the team I like getting better.
(And we know that SSF, obviously, is far above that kind of thing, of course.  I couldn’t find a way of writing that sentence so that it didn’t sound ironic, so I’ll just add that it’s not meant to be ironic.)

OK, so that’s probable failure in one key team-improvement area - Posada or die at catcher, with Posada seeming far from a certainty.

Barring a major setback in ST, I think that would have pretty much been the plan throughout April, and into May.  Probably anyway.  They’re certainly going to give Posada every chance they can to succeed.  Once you hit June, if Posada can’t cut it (reinjures, can’t hit, can’t throw, etc.) you have the option of 1) making a trade for a catcher at that point or 2) Depending on what Cervelli has done at AAA, call him up.

I understand why some people are hesitant about Cervelli.  It’s because he doesn’t put up Posada-like numbers at catcher.  Of course, Posada is close to the HOF (personally I believe he belongs in, but will fall short unless he has a couple of more good seasons).  Cervelli’s defense is supposed to be top-notch, and it looks like he could probably hit better than Molina, at least.

Speaking of Posada, he was supposed to start throwing last week.  Anyone hear any updates?

Speaking of Posada, he was supposed to start throwing last week.  Anyone hear any updates?

Yeah, as far as I know, he did throw and it went well.  Forget where I read it, though…(LoHud?)

I can’t see them reporting anything other than “It went well” short of his arm falling off.

I think that’s all the info there is at the moment.  I haven’t seen/heard anything more…

Rosenthal says Yanks and Dodgers are talking Cano and Cabrera for Kemp and a pitcher.  I know we’ve discussed this and none of us like it much, but unless Rosenthal or his source are FOS, there just might be something going on here.

Would taking Juan Pierre off their hands be enough to get them to give up a good pitcher instead of a suspect?  Do they even have any pitchers you’d want outside of Billingsley and Kershaw (since I just don’t those two being available under any circumstances)?

Would taking Juan Pierre off their hands be enough to get them to give up a good pitcher instead of a suspect?

Would there be any point in taking Pierre other than to try to get the Dodgers to up the ante?  Just curious; I don’t see any point in him when Gardner should be able to be basically the same player, but for a fraction of the cost.  I imagine you’d want him just like Boston took Lowe in the Beckett deal…

As for other pitchers…hmm, can’t think of any.  To me there isn’t any real benefit in having Kemp over Cano - I’m of the mind that Cano’s season last year was an aberration - so I’d want something of real value over that.  Can we get Russel Martin or James Loney instead of a pitcher?

Loney would be awesome, and Martin would be awesomer, but I don’t see it happening if the only pieces going back are Cano and Melky.  Even if Yanks take on all of Pierre’s remaining contract (puke barf).

Trading Cano for Kemp is basically creating one hole to fill another, so I don’t know that it makes much sense. Like you said, you want them to send over someone like Billinglsey or Kershaw to make it interesting.

Of course, there’s Loney and Ethier also. The Dodgers have *a lot* of interesting young players that I wouldn’t mind having.

The Dodgers are also stuck with Andruw Jones. Between him and Pierre, there seems to be a good opportunity to gain leverage by picking up a salary dump.

Trading Cano for Kemp is basically creating one hole to fill another, so I don’t know that it makes much sense. Like you said, you want them to send over someone like Billinglsey or Kershaw to make it interesting.

Right, which is why if they aren’t hot on trading their pitchers (and since they are losing Lowe and probably not replacing him that will be tough) I’d like to fill another hole.  Martin gives them a REALLY good backup, who will at least allow the Yankees to rest Posada more, and can replace him if Posada can’t catch.  Loney allows them to move Swisher to the OF and then they would no longer need to spend money on Tex (since they’re now hoping to spend the money an a 2B).  It may also allow them to move another OF (Damon, Nady, or Matsui) to get that pitcher, albeit indirectly.

As YM said, it isn’t likely to happen; though Martin and Loney are both in a similar situation as Cano, in that they are young players who had an off year, so their value may be lower now.

Would there be any point in taking Pierre other than to try to get the Dodgers to up the ante?

Of course not.  Wasn’t that clear?

Trading Cano for Kemp is basically creating one hole to fill another, so I don’t know that it makes much sense.

Free agent 2B options include Orlando Hudson and maybe Rafael Furcal.  Free agent CF options include jack and shit.

Martin also played a lot of 3B and could conceivably be an option at 1B, but I imagine it would take someone with the initials JC to land Martin. For some reason young catchers who can mash are hard to come by.. go figure.

Of course, if Cano were to be traded, Cashman would have Orlando Hudson on speed dial. But I don’t think the Dodgers have the pitching to deal.

hmmm….this is the first new interesting scenario in weeks.

Cano/Melky/Kennedy for Kemp/Billingsley/Jones

haha…that would never happen.  but at least it gives us something new to talk about.

Joe Gordon in the HOF.
Wouldn’t be in my HOF, but damned well should have been in THIS one long ago.

Martin also played a lot of 3B and could conceivably be an option at 1B, but I imagine it would take someone with the initials JC to land Martin. For some reason young catchers who can mash are hard to come by.. go figure.

Justin Christian?  done and done.

Free agent CF options include jack and shit.

Jack was just signed to a 3 year deal.  All that’s left is shit.

Free agent 2B options include Orlando Hudson and maybe Rafael Furcal.  Free agent CF options include jack and shit.

Furcal is a nice option if he wants to play 2B, but Hudson is not much of an option, IMO, mainly due to his lack of durability.

But really, with either of those two, you’re talking about average offense, below average defense (Hudson) and probably average defense (Furcal) because of the position change. They’re also both going to be 31 next year, so you’ve got the inevitable decline.

I guess that type of player doesn’t exist on the market for CF, so you do turn things around a bit, instead of hoping Gardner or Melky end up as league average in CF.

Martin and Loney are both in a similar situation as Cano, in that they are young players who had an off year, so their value may be lower now

More importantly, Martin and Loney are very different from Kemp, in that the Dodgers do not have an excess of players at their positions.

Between him and Pierre, there seems to be a good opportunity to gain leverage by picking up a salary dump.

Jones has a full no trade clause, and although only signed for one more year, he’s owed $22M.  Pierre is signed through 2011 and is owed $28.5M, but only has a partial NTC and has asked for a trade.

So j is saying that if Cano’s first name were Juan or Jose, we could have Martin for him?
Baseball really IS a game of inches.

Jack was just signed to a 3 year deal.  All that’s left is shit.

I trust my check is in the mail.

Jones has a full no trade clause, and although only signed for one more year, he’s owed $22M.  Pierre is signed through 2011 and is owed $28.5M, but only has a partial NTC and has asked for a trade.

I think Jones has asked for a trade, also. I seem to recall reading that last year.

It’s easy to like Jones, but fangraphs tore him apart this offseasaon. He’s basically become an offensive and defensive black hole. Every part of his game is getting worse really fast.

And as long as we’re pilfering from the Dodgers, how about Blake Dewitt? Or Jonathan Broxton?

Man, where the hell did LA get all of these players?

Jones requested a trade, but it was to the local Denny’s.

Egads, what a terrible contract.

“It’s easy to like Jones”

Falser words were never spoken.

Holy crap, I had almost forgotten about the Jason Schmidt contract.  He almost makes Pavano look worth it.  In first two years of a 3 year, $47M(!!!) contract he’s pitched 25 innings of 6+ ERA ball.  All he did in 2008 was start five games at AAA, going 12 innings total and giving up 10 ER.  Actually, he also started 4 games in A+, sorry.

That’s $83M combined for Schmidt and Jones.