I was shocked to see Matsui as an uncompensated free agent.

Sign Matsui, offer Damon arbitration, if he accepts, worse things could happen, if not he’ll sign somewhere: free draft pick!

Because I’m always late, her’s a continuation of the last thread:

We made it 4 days, 15 hours into the off-season before talking about Nick Johnson? That is some major restraint on the part of RLYWers.

We need to make an all-star team of players we argue about/propose trades about every freakin’ off-season:  Figgins at 3rd, Cameron and Crawford in the OF.  Hardy at ss?  Saltamachia (sp?) at catcher?  Does Dye qualify?  Soriano? 

And yes, Nick the Stick is the captain.

[2] Bronson Arroyo? I hear the Yankees are really interested in him.

I wonder if the Mets think Chris Carter and Eddie Lora were worth more than a possible first round pick, although I guess they wouldn’t have offered Wagner arbitration.

They might have, knowing that Wagner voiced his desire to return to closing somewhere.  He’d probably decline it knowing that wasn’t going to happen in NY.

If the logic is that the suppressed FA market means Damon won’t get $13M, but in fact MIGHT get less in arbitration, then why not also offer Nady arbitration? He only made $6.5M last season and missed most of the season with injury. Wouldn’t his salary go down drastically in arbitration?

Having Nady and Gardner on the bench wouldn’t be the worse thing. Nady would offer insurance in case of a Damon or Matsui injury. Or the Yankees get a draft pick if Nady leaves.

[5] I’m not sure if they should offer Nady arbitration or not. The swing in salary doesn’t seem all that great. Like you said it is probably worth it.

Also, how the hell is Matsui uncompensated and Nady a B?!?

[4] Or Wagner may have accepted arbitration assuming it would get him the highest possible salary for next season, then in ST he would start making phone calls to the Mets owner demanding they, “trade me right farnsing now! hang up.”

[6] They draw names from a hat?

Also, how the hell is Matsui uncompensated and Nady a B?!?

Zombies can not be classified?

[2-3] How could I have forgotten Dunn, and Andruw.

Does Abreu’s 2 year, $19M contract set the market for a guy like Damon at this point?  Would the Yankees do that for Damon?  Any word yet on what Holliday or Bay want?

[8]  “Compensaaaaaaaaatiooooooon . . .”

The obvious big question with Nady is health. 10 guys will give you 10 opinions on the second go ‘round for TJS for a position player.

I think that, despite what we read about Nady in the Post’s Yankees Notes (which has him saying he expects to be ready in ST to be a full time player), Cashman’s offer of arbitration will be an indication of the the insider info on Nady’s health. A healthy Nady at $7M or so on 1 year deal is a no brainer when you’re talking about having to give Bay or Holliday 5-7 year deals, or having to rely on Damon in LF again.  Nady for 1 year (if he’s healthy) and Damon for 2 years as a DH who can bring his glove to national league parks is a fine way to deal with LF and DH next year.

At this point, my guess is that nobody offers Nady a major league contract.  I’m pretty sure he’d get more in arbitration than a non-roster invite with lots of easily-reachable-if-healthy incentives, so I don’t think the Yanks will offer it.

[13] You think it’s that grim of an outlook for him? Anyone know of any 2 x TJS position player comparables?

Double TJ comps?  That’s got to be a pretty small sample, no?

It’s not like Nady was an elite player before getting hurt.  Since there will probably be a bunch of healthy guys to take low-risk flyers on, why would the X-man be all that high on anybody’s wish list?  His upside is attractive, but only if the cost is reasonable and you don’t have to risk much if he’s unable to play for part or all of the season.  And if he’s limited to DHing, he’s not very attractive at all.

I hope to heck that Wagner scares the Sox into not offering him arbitration.

Or, even better, he accepts their offer.

Because seeing him as an A, the Red Sox have to offer him arbitration, right?

Wikipedia’s list doesn’t have any position players that had it twice. Interesting name on there that did have the surgery twice - Dave Eiland.

At what point does Nady stop rehabbing with team doctors and coaches? I’m merely suggesting that Nady is a good value if you’ve got some insider information on his health. If his recovery is too uncertain, I’d personally just stick Cameron or Ankiel in LF, and DH Damon.

At what point does Nady stop rehabbing with team doctors and coaches?

I don’t know, but my guess is that he already has.  The Yankees certainly won’t have any more access to his medical status than any other team once he files for free agency.

I know there is just a formula that determines this stuff, but seriously? Orlando Hudson, Bengie Molina, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Rafael Soriano, Randy Wolf, Jose Valverde, Migul Tejada, Latroy Hawkins, Jermaine Dye, Octavio Dotel, and Orlando Cabrera are all Type A?

Really? I think any team that gives up a first round draft pick to sign one of those guys is out of their collective mind. 

But I like that Damon is Type A—so that means he will get offered arbitration and then either walk and get the Yanks a first rounder or re-sign for 1 year. Either of those is fine by me.

[20] Don’t forget, it’s lumped by position. I think it’s 1B/OF/DH, 2B/SS/3B, C, RP and SP.

Does anybody know how the formula was determined?  I mean, did Elias make it up on their own? could they change it outside of collective bargaining?

Free agent compensation will probably get changed whenever they renew their agreement.  I doubt the union likes that it can sometimes push down a player’s salary, and nobody likes going into arbitration.

Don’t know if anyone has mentioned this, but…take a flyer on Rich Harden?

Don’t know if anyone has mentioned this, but…take a flyer on Rich Harden?

I think SG did in a previous thread.

didn’t the Mets save a couple of million bucks by shipping him to the impoverished Sox for a month?

at some point, you can probably make up the value of the extra draft pick just by plowing those millions into signability guys, no?

[2-3] Maybe the Yankees could sign Barry Bonds to a league minimum contract to DH? (exit, pursued by angry mob, while Benny Hill theme plays)

[26] I’ll never have what he’s having.
Don- per last nights revelation… Thanks for clearing up my curiousity re- T the K’s frequent rail use.
Dude makes some good coffee too.

...Meanwhile I am hoping Pat Venditte becomes MLB-level.  Because that’s homegrown, unusual talent.

On a more important side note, did anyone catch tonight’s Heroes episode? Next week’s episode is going to be epic.

I didn’t know it was 2006 and people still watched that show.

I am very very pissed off after spinning through the Comcast channel lineup and spotting something called “The Closer” on TNT, only to find out it was *NOT* a biopic about Mo.

Dang, what the heck is up with V Wells contract, over 20 million for 2011, 12, 13 and 14? 

I am starting to think that Cashman is a genius. But then I’m sure folks here will bring up ..., okay, I take the genius thing back, I don’t need reminders.

Looking at Wells’ career, I can only think he’s either injured or completely unmotivated.  Honestly, it shocks me that more guys don’t just completely mail it in after they’ve received these insane contracts.  I’m not complaining a bit…rather, I find it a worthy testament to the generally extremely high degree of professionalism displayed that most players bust their ass even though they have it made.  You take someone like CC, who could ride out his current contract, have 10 grandkids and they’d all live a comfortable, non-working life if they chose…and he’s hump-busting with seven-day work weeks for eight months like he’s in a contract year.  So many MLB players are like this, and the loafer is the rarest exception.  People like to point to them taking the most money as a sign of pure greed on the players’ part, but I think that it operates more as a sign of respect and motivation for them.  They are where they are because not only of their ability, but also because of their tireless dedication to their craft and deeply competitive nature.  The money is an index by which they can measure themselves, and they fight to justify it.  These guys work.

You know who I like?  Mike Cameron.  Dave Cameron, suspiciously enough, is pretty bullish on him for next year.  (Fangraphs.)

Goldman reminds us that the accidental benefits of a full-time DH like Matsui is that the less Girardi can “rest” guys by playing them at DH, the fewer ABs for non-hitters like Ramiro Pena.  It’s a good point, no?  Jeter and A-Rod seemed plenty fresh during the playoffs.  Maybe we don’t need either of them DHing more than once a month or so.

Posado, on the other hand, should probably just sit his ass down altogether every 5 games.  Rest his poor concussed brain.

[33] I don’t see V Wells as the unmotivated type. Injuries, and a lot of bad luck. But I don’t really know him.

And while I think there are some unmotivated players. I think the greater majority of work related issues are just mis-motivated, like not working on things as much in the off season or not focus on the right type of workouts and so forth. But I just have a hard time seeing players not want to succeed during the season, especially with the fans, media, and teammates looking.

But I’m a soft hearted liberal, so I don’t like to see anyone banned and have faith in our young players and so forth.

[33] - I think it’s also due to the fact that the only way to make it to MLB FA status is to be almost hyper-competative.  Very tough to make it if one doesn’t have an internal motivation.

You know who I like?  Mike Cameron.  Dave Cameron, suspiciously enough, is pretty bullish on him for next year.  (Fangraphs.)

Cameron has had a crush on Cameron for a while due to some great seasons with the Mariners, but I agree with him (on Cameron > Jason Bay).

I am also bullish on Cameron on a one year contract, especially if he found his way into a launching pad type stadium.

I think part of the deal that should be considered with Vernon Wells is that his numbers started to go down drastically as testing for PEDs got stricter. I’m not sayin’, I am just sayin’...

[26] The Cardinals have signed Barry Bonds as their strength/conditoning and nutrition coach.

Bigger baseball caps all around in St. Louis.

Thurm, the old New York, New Haven & Hartford has frequent travel miles for Katts.

A. Phil—Heroes is deader than a Dodo.

[22] The formula was collectively bargained.  Elias just does the math.  So don’t blame them for the insanity, blame Selig and Fehr.

Actually, I guess that should be “formulae were…”  The criteria for pitchers and position players are obviously different.

Goldman reminds us that the accidental benefits of a full-time DH like Matsui is that the less Girardi can “rest” guys by playing them at DH, the fewer ABs for non-hitters like Ramiro Pena.  It’s a good point, no?

Maybe…I think there’s still going to be a “primary” DH even if that player can handle the field.  And those “no hit” guys are pretty much always better defenders - generally by quite a bit - than who they would be replacing.  They would probably only lose a handful of runs over the course of the season, but of course they might make those back if giving partial-rest to older players helps them maintain their production throughout the year.

Plus of course guys like Pena and Cervelli you want to continue to develop, to see if they can take a leap to be decent starters (3-4 WAR players), stopgap starters (1.5-2 WAR) while better options develop, or at least long-term backups (~1 WAR).  I guess as long as they are confident the full-time DH would be worth at least 2 WAR go for it.  But if it is less than that probably better to use the position with many players.

[42] To be technically fair, I think you need to blame Selig’s and Fehr’s predecessors.  I don’t think the methodology has changed much since the early 80’s, though I could be wrong.  Now if something isn’t changed with the next CBA, the current PTB’s should get quite a bit of blame.

It may not be an issue in 2010, or even 2011 or 2012, but the downside of having A-Rod and Jeter under contract to age 40 or beyond is that at some point one or both will have to spend an increasing amount of time at DH, and unless the Yankees develop an infield prospect that can SLG, their replacement while they DH is probably going to be a marginal offensive player.

Sherman:

The Yankees are strategizing ways to retain all three of their major free agents—Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte and Hideki Matsui—sources told The Post.

Damon and Pettitte are the priorities. But when asked if that meant Matsui had played his last game in pinstripes, one team executive said, “No, I hope we can figure out a way to have them all back.”

Right now, the Yankees are much more focused on their own trio than they are on the three big outside free agents: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday and John Lackey.

[...]

But at this moment, the Yankees are philosophically against giving another long-term contract to a thirtysomething player such as Lackey, when they have so many of those deals on their books already.

That is why the Yanks want to push for one-year contracts with Pettitte, Damon and Matsui, all of whom the organization believes want to return in 2010. The trickiest negotiation probably will be with Damon.

[45]  Well, maybe not DH.  But probably not their current positions.  Looks like in a few years there may be some openings in corner OF spots.  But the point they need to move off of their current positions - at least most of the time - is correct.  The main question is how long it will take to get there; if they don’t have to worry about it until they’re pushing 40 there’s still 3-4 for Jeter, 5-6 for ARod.  There’s certainly time to develop someone - I think they have a few guys in low-A and Rookie ball with potential.

The only guys on the upper-levels appear to be Russo and Pena.  Pena’s still only going to be 24 next year, if he can develop a little more I could see .750 OPS out of him by his late-20’s.  For a SS that’s good, though obviously no-where near Jeter.  Russo is a little older, and I think has a little more upside offensively, like .800 OPS maybe.  Defensively I think he could handle 3rd OK.  That offensive level is a lot below what we have come to expect, but if Montero is putting up an OPS over 1.000 every year at C we can probably live with it! 

I agree we’d like a little more certainty of that being a minimum level of production and some more upside of like .900.

Fangraphs has Bill James’ 2010 projections up. You have to click on individual players to see their 2010 projection though - you can’t get a composite list of the team’s projection for some reason.

Those Bill James projections are worthless.  I wouldn’t even look at them.

Basically, there’s no way the hitters can hit as well as he projects in a league where the pitchers pitch as well as he projects.  They can essentially drill down to ‘everyone’s awesome.’

[49] What gives with them? What do you think he’s doing wrong? Or is just general gut feel on what his projections typically look like?

[50] I haven’t found a single respected sabermetric website that doesn’t a) love Bill James and b) think his projection system is pretty much the worst available (b/c as SG says he overprojects the vast majority of players by a significant margin, younger players in particular).

First off, I don’t think it’s actually him.  I think he lends his name to them but the methodology behind them is run by someone else.

Like Zorak says, one of the biggest issues is that whatever MLE formula they use leads to significantly overrating younger players. 

If I had to guess why they’re so optimistic in general, I’d assume that
a) they don’t regress towards a mean enough (or at all)
b) they don’t do any type of overall corrections to ensure that their combined projections make sense.  In other words, if you are projecting the league to have an ERA of 3.50, you probably shouldn’t project them to also hit .290/.375/.500.  You need to make sure your offensive and defensive projections match.
c) It could very well be done by design.  I know that when I’ve released my projections, they piss people off because they are ‘too pessimistic’.  Same thing with CHONE and ZiPS and PECOTA and everyone else.  That’s really not true, it’s just that fans are too optimistic, and don’t like seeing a realistic assessment of the players on their team.  So if you overproject everyone, you don’t have to deal with hate mail and mocking by ‘people who actually watch the games.’

A good case in point is Alex Rodriguez in 2009.  When I showed his PECOTA, just about everyone here thought it was ridiculously low, except John Lynch I believe.  I’m planning on starting up post-mortem series of threads here soon where I’ll go into detail on every player, but Rodriguez’s VORP ended up right where it was projected in PECOTA, due to the missed time more so than the rate of production, but I’d still probably give PECOTA some credit for that (which they need, because they had a pretty crappy year overall).

Like Zorak says, one of the biggest issues is that whatever MLE formula they use leads to significantly overrating younger players.

Interestingly enough, I think the Bill James system was the closest one on Gardner.  Not that getting one player right makes the system good; I could eyeball a series of players and throw out some numbers and get a few players right.  But before throwing out the system entirely it may be useful to look at what players it *did* get right and ponder if it handles certain kinds of players better than other systems.  Perhaps that has already been done.

Is it just me, or did Milwaukee sell incredibly low on J.J. Hardy? Carlos Gomez is terrible.

Interestingly enough, I think the Bill James system was the closest one on Gardner.

As I recall, the big pre-season talk was how drastically Gardner had changed his swing and how this should/would invalidate in large part his projections, so this may not really help your proposed study.

[55] Actually, here anyway, I’m pretty sure the big talk was how Gardner’s projections weren’t valid b/c systems couldn’t account for players like him, and ALL of the projections were overly optimistic.

I pointed Gardner out but I don’t think even if it is because of some drastic change to his swing that he hit his projection (or missed others) it invalidates the point.  Is the Bill James system good at predicting a certain set of players?  If so, are these players ones that other systems regularly miss on?  And then, does this happen year-to-year?  If so, probably isn’t luck, so it may be useful figure out why.

[54] I think so.  Especially since Hardy actually has 2 years until FA.  It’s like they wanted to be proactive and get a replacemnt for CF, and jumped at the first opportunity.

Of course, this will be one of those cases where Gomez suddenly starts hitting 15-20 HR a year and Hardy completely bombs…

[56] I recall the opposite.  Projections were too pessimistic.  Perhaps my recollection is wrong. 
Regardless, I do think his swing was noticeably different this year from last year.

Mike and I thought the Gardner projections might be pessimistic because they integrated over his first time at levels, even though he showed a possible pattern of strong improvement after each promotion.  A lot of people thought the projections were optimistic because (approx. and exag.) he doesn’t hit enough HR for pitchers to respect him so he wouldn’t get his walks since pitchers would “knock the bat out of his hands”.  You can google “ratchet” and this site for some of the long discussions.

I thought the projections were low cause he always gets thrown out during the world series.

[60] That’s offset by his regular season grit coefficient.

Is the Bill James system good at predicting a certain set of players?  If so, are these players ones that other systems regularly miss on?  And then, does this happen year-to-year?  If so, probably isn’t luck, so it may be useful figure out why.

Apparently, the James system is good at predicting the set of players who outperform their other projections.  This would seem to make sense for a system that is overly optimistic in general.  If that’s all that is going on, then it probably is luck even if it happens year-to-year.

If I predict break-out years for twenty guys and three of them really do break out, that doesn’t mean I’m good at predicting break-outs.

As for Gardner, his OPS+ certainly exceeds what most of us pessimists were expecting.  But we shouldn’t forget that he only had 284 PA.  The 120 of those that came in May and June were awesome; the rest not so much.

I’m not sure why anyone would think that Carlos Gomez will ever hit.  That’s not snark, BTW.  I know he’s really young, but I just don’t see anything in his minor league track record that supports the assertion that he can hold his own against major league pitching.  Maybe the prospect mavens can enlighten me.

OTOH, I can see why some people might think that JJ Hardy will never hit again.

If I predict break-out years for twenty guys and three of them really do break out, that doesn’t mean I’m good at predicting break-outs.

Sure, I mentioned that in [55].

Apparently, the James system is good at predicting the set of players who outperform their other projections.  This would seem to make sense for a system that is overly optimistic in general.  If that’s all that is going on, then it probably is luck even if it happens year-to-year.

I was thinking of something a little more in-depth.  E.g. SG mentioned the MLE’s were too optimistic, but does the system normally do better on players w/ little to no experience in the majors?  Speed players?  Left handed hitters from the Carolinas?  If the only way you can classify the players it does well on, is that those players outperform other projection systems you are correct, it is likely luck.

As for Gardner, his OPS+ certainly exceeds what most of us pessimists were expecting.  But we shouldn’t forget that he only had 284 PA.  The 120 of those that came in May and June were awesome; the rest not so much.

Of course not, but we also shouldn’t limit him to being a part-time player.  And saying he was awesome for 2 months and not awesome for two others just means he’s a baseball player, as most players are like that.

players w/ little to no experience in the majors?  Speed players?  Left handed hitters from the Carolinas?

You left out players with hot blond wives and cute kids.

we also shouldn’t limit him to being a part-time player

I don’t get to limit him to anything.  But I don’t get to give him more PT either.  He and Girardi will take care of that.  OTOH, one of the easiest traps to fall into is the one where we extrapolate part-time performance to a full time role without accounting for the potential benefits that the part-time role may have afforded the player.  Personally, I’m pretty content with Cabrera and Gardner continuing to job share, because I think they’re both well-suited to a “more than fourth OFer but less than everyday player” role.

I’ll start the post-mortem with Gardner since that’s where we’re heading.  I didn’t have the James projections in the pre-season projections but I’ll see how hard it is to add them.

Is it just me, or did Milwaukee sell incredibly low on J.J. Hardy? Carlos Gomez is terrible.

That’s my take too.  The Twins OF defense is going to be AWFUL though.

Don’t know if anyone has mentioned this, but…take a flyer on Rich Harden?

I’ve brought it up.  I’d like to see it.  It’s the same basic idea the Sox had with Smoltz & Penny, except Rich Harden >> those guys.

“post-mortem”

But we didn’t die this time.

[69]

The Yankees never made it past the Angels. They were swept. However, in a case of mass hysteria we have all combined to imagine the Yankees winning both the ALCS and the WS in 6 games. SG with all his stats and numbers and whatnot was able to stay rooted in reality. A reality where the Red Sox slapped back in and won the World series.

You left out players with hot blond wives and cute kids.

I knew I forgot one!

one of the easiest traps to fall into is the one where we extrapolate part-time performance to a full time role

While true, I was also calling for Gardner to be the starter *last* off-season.  I don’t get the idea that he can’t hit lefties.  W/o going back to check, I think there’s only been two times in his career (minors plus majors) where he hasn’t shown a reverse-split.  I think his first half-season in AA, and his major-league start in 2008. 

Of course, the only way we’ll find out if Gardner really is a part-time player is to play him full time.  I think it’s just as easy of a trap to assume that a player only IS a part-timer.  For example, the Reds felt O’Neill couldn’t hit lefties and therefore was a platoon-half.  Thankfully, Showalter didn’t feel that way.

Personally, I’m pretty content with Cabrera and Gardner continuing to job share

That wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.  Several people - including here - want to “upgrade” CF with Cameron, and relegate Gardner to 5th OF duties…

[70] You forgot to mention something…

The Yankees died the day free agency was granted to Catfish Hunter.  They have continued to die at the end of every season, only to be reborn the subsequent.  Some notable deaths the Yankees have died have included signing Reggie, trading Mickey Rivers, letting Reggie walk, Ron Davis for Roy Smalley, letting Nettles walk, Buhner for Phelps, Drabek for Rhoden, Stump Merrill, starting Enrique Wilson, letting Weaver pitch the 11th, Miguel Cairo.

[72] The Yankees revealed their secret plan to start Phil Hughes? I thought that was obvious. Strangely enough they started him in every game. He pitched well in games 1 and 2 but then tired for the second 2 games. Apparently, the plan next year is to go with a rotation of Phil Hughes, Phil Hughes, Phil Hughes, Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia when a 5th starter is needed.

Here’s the thing about the Carlos Gomez trade.  I’d wager that a good chunk of the posters on this board would have traded Brett Gardner & a poor ptiching prospect for JJ Hardy.  I bet the Yankees would have too.
Brett Gardner is probably a better player over the next few years than Carlos Gomez.  He’s noticeably older but is still cost-controlled, walks more, plays equally great defense, can’t slug his way out of a paper bag, and has a similar line-drive rate.
So why make this trade if you’re the Brewers, even if you only really want a CF?

But we didn’t die this time.

True, post-mortem probably isn’t the best terminology for this.  I’ll call them season in review instead.

For example, the Reds felt O’Neill couldn’t hit lefties and therefore was a platoon-half.  Thankfully, Showalter didn’t feel that way.

Actually, Showalter usually protected O’Neill from tough lefties.  Paulie had just about as much PT (adjusted for season length) his last three years in Cincy as he did his first three years with the Yanks.

So why make this trade if you’re the Brewers, even if you only really want a CF?

Because Hardy is going to make ~$10M in arbitration over the next two years and they think Escobar can play SS.  Take JJ’s money plus what they don’t spend resigning Cameron and you can go after a front line starter.

So why make this trade if you’re the Brewers, even if you only really want a CF?

Gomez is toolsier than Gardner I think, so maybe the Brewers think there’s more upside there, especially given the age difference?  Two years of extra development time is no small factor.

A lot of baseball still make their talent assessment based on what just happened.  Hardy had an awful season and got sent to the minors.  Maybe this was the best offer they got?  The Yankees probably weren’t involved with Jeter around, but I know Boston was, although maybe they wouldn’t put Hunter Jones on the table…

[74] I didn’t figure your programming had advanced enough yet to *not* put a “Phil Hughes should start” plug in.  If you advance any more, humanity beware!

Paulie had just about as much PT (adjusted for season length) his last three years in Cincy as he did his first three years with the Yanks.

Don’t you use facts to counter my imperfect memory!

Because Hardy is going to make ~$10M in arbitration over the next two years and they think Escobar can play SS.

I don’t think anyone disputes *why* they traded Hardy, or that they *should* have.  We’re disputing if they could/should have gotten more.

Maybe this was the best offer they got?

Still seems like pulling the trigger a little early.  Perhaps they were afraid any team willing to trade for Hardy would have filled the need in FA.  But I think the popular view is if they waited a little bit, they could have gotten more.  Maybe not a *lot* more, but at least something that could be a useful piece in the future.

Maybe this was the best offer they got?

Boston supposedly offered Bowden; Brewers supposedly wanted Buchholz or Bard.  Would you trade Bowden for Gomez?

Would anybody trade Buchholz or Bard for Gomez?

The bloom is off Bowden to some degree, but I can’t see the Sox making that trade.

As for Wagner, I recall there was some scuttlebutt around the time of his acquisition that the Sox viewed him as a short-term solution and a draft pick, at worst. Suggests that they will offer him arb. It’s a pretty safe situation; if he accepts, it’s not like they can’t use him or trade him. Heyman is saying he’s fielded a half-dozen calls already. Isn’t there always a team or two desperate for a closer and ready to overpay?