The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, January 9, 2009

Extremely Early Projected Standings

Here are the results of 100 trials of the 2009 season using rosters as of yesterday and projections from the Hardball Times.

W: Average wins
L: Average losses
RF: Average runs for
RA: Average runs against
DIV: Division titles out of 100 seasons (I don’t break ties)
WC: Wild cards out of 100 seasons


There’s still a lot that can change over the next few months, so don’t take these too seriously.

--Posted at 10:20 am by SG / 118 Comments | - (759)

Comments

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I’m more at 10/90 than 90/10, but it’s hard to judge from so far outside.  On the other hand I remember thinking scoffingly about people complaining about flat feet, and then one day I got out of bed and tried to stand up with plantar fasciitis.

The last 30 posts or so have convinced me that we should *thank* Pavano.  Because of him, we have something we’ll be talking about 20 years from now…and $40M won’t seem that bad because that’s what we’ll be paying for lunch…

I just installed a new kitchen faucet in under 15 minutes.
No leaks!!!
I bet Pavano would have failed to shut the supply valves off, then blame the water company for the mess, then fall on his ass and blame the flooring manufacturer for the bruising of the buttocks.
Anyway… My morning was a success.

i see both sides of it.  i defended Pavano a lot in 2007, b/c the dude needed TJS.  he was pitching with a tear in his elbow and i can only imagine that was pretty excruciating.  he had the surgery and he worked hard to get himself back for what, in more ideal circustances, could have been just in the nick of time to help the yankees down the stretch in 2008.  he made it back from TJS fairly quickly, all things considered, and i doubt that was easy.

however, i think some of the accusations from earlier in his career had some merit.  he missed the second half of 2005 with some sort of shoulder injury and i am not sure anyone was ever sure how serious it actually was.  he just kindof disappeared.  then in 2006, it was a series of random injuries that happened to keep occurring everytime he was getting close to pitching.  it didn’t look good.  the fact that he didn’t make a single start from mid-2005 through 2007 without requiring any sort of surgery is fairly unbelievable, no? 

that said, i was excited to have him back in the beginning of 2007.  he had that excellent start in Minnesota, and that was that.

so, i think the Pavano saga, as with most things, falls somewhere in the middle of the two POV’s.  i think his detractors have a point from 2005-2006, and i think his defenders have a point in 2007-2008. 

i wish him well and i can’t wait for Teixeira to take him deep in his first inning at the new stadium.

I am still really bummed that Bahston signed Smoltz.  Smoltz is one of my all-time favorite non-Yanks and much better than Glavine in my opinion.  This, along with Baldelli who I also liked, really pisses me off.  I wish they signed with Philly or something.  What is wrong with Philly- they are so close to building a phanitical fanbase but are too cheap to invest in their team.  So they overpay for Ibanez.  They probably should have tried to grab Smoltz or even Lowe.  It’s such bullshit that The Mutts get to compete against minor league organizations.  Sorry for the rant- hungover.

Oh, and by the way- watching Pro Bullriding at MSG was so m uch better than any Knicks game I’ve been to since Sprewell.  Go PBR.

So, does anyone else get weirded out when you think that Pavano pitched the home-opener for the Yanks in 2007?  That still gives me a chuckle every time I think about it.

How funny would it be if he also pitched in the home opener at the new YS on April 16th?  There would have to be some rainouts for the Indians, and even then, not sure if the days work out, but hey, weirder things have happened. 

So the Red Sox added another fixer-upper in Saito.  They can’t get lucky on all of these projects, right?  That would be scary.

Saito was some kinda pitcher before he busted his arm. it always seemed like dude was flying under the radar. that’s a good pickup if he can pitch, which is unlikely as a 39 year old with a torn elbow who prefers “experimental injections” to TJS

The Mets signed Tim Redding.  Another nail in the Phils’ coffin.

I suspect there will be massive salary depreciation in the next couple of years.  I think it will be 10 years before a Mark Teixeira equivalent matches his contract.  I know we are all thrilled to have Mark Teixeira in our lineup for obvious reasons but I don’t think the contract was great value.  It’s like Apple or Google last year- great companies but the stock required stretched assumptions to validate the valuation. SG, can you do a thorough analysis of the contract?

here you go Pags:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_case_for_mark_teixeira

I suspect there will be massive salary depreciation in the next couple of years.  I think it will be 10 years before a Mark Teixeira equivalent matches his contract.


How about 3 years? I know its a pretty long way away but king felix is set to hit free agency at age 26.

So the Red Sox added another fixer-upper in Saito.  They can’t get lucky on all of these projects, right?  That would be scary.

Well, that’s the plan anyway. If we get half-lucky, we should be in contention. Another scenario is that stockpiling potential contributors is a precursor to trading Masterson for Saltalamacchia or Montero, but it’s hard to know what to believe there.

I do like that the Sox are taking a series of high-ceiling fliers in a way that doesn’t foreclose anything midseason or cost draft picks. Doesn’t make us the better team (factoring in risk), but it does preserve the option of a bigger move in the more likely chance that all these reclamation projects get us close but not quite there.

I’ve been thinking about the Teixeira deal (still) and concluding that the Sox simply can’t rely on the free agent route as long as the Yankees have a roster spot. So this is plan B.

Yeah, the Sox are smart. They have been taking this route for years and when it works they win the WS or come close. When it doesn’t, they still contend. And the commitments are short-term, so if one or two guys don’t pan out they can try again the next year. It isn’t as sure fire a path to the postseasn as signing the 3 best superstars available, but they can’t afford to do that, of course.

I have been arguing with my Mets-fan friends that the Mets should try this more often, but they all make excuses for their GM for some reason. Why, for instance, would it not have made sense for the Mets to sign Smoltz, Penny, etc.? It seems like other wealthy teams don’t have the balls to take a bunch of gambles on guys like Penny for fear that they will bomb and someone like Mike Lupica will mouth off about it.

The Mets are doing what the Sox did for decades: trying to beat the Yankees at their own game. It can’t really be done, not reliably. Epstein is smart, but he also has the benefit of seeing how stupid the alternative is.

Mets don’t have to beat The Yankees- they just have to beat AAAA.

just testing the “I Hate America” pull-down.

Ah… I see what you did there.

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