Angels below .500?  Really?

SG,

Given how infrequently teams win over 100 games is there some kind of limit where pythagorean wins behaves almost asymptotically? Where run differential no longer translates evenly into expected wins/ losses?

Or is it simply the case that empirically teams often don’t manage to generate the kinds of run differentials needed to win over 100 games?

I ask because anecdotally I feel that I see teams projected to win 99,100,101, etc far more frequently than it actually happens.  Thanks.

Also, how much must it suck to be the Baltimore Orioles?

Angels below .500?  Really?

Yeah, that’s a head-scratcher.  San Fran and Colorado threw me too.

Given how infrequently teams win over 100 games is there some kind of limit where pythagorean wins behaves almost asymptotically? Where run differential no longer translates evenly into expected wins/ losses?

Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of handling that by creating a custom exponent based on a team’s runs scored and runs allowed per game, but I think I’ve seen research that as a team’s run differential increases on the offensive side to an extreme level (say 900+), it is less likely to lead to the expected wins.

When I re-run these later I will probably have to add a little more bench time in, which should suppress the #s slightly and make them more closely model reality.

Colorado: minus Holiday, Tavaras, and Fuentes, plus Street, Gonzalez, Smith, and Marquis, equals fourteen more wins?

Why did we get Sabathia instead of Greg Smith?

Colorado: minus Holiday, Tavaras, and Fuentes, plus Street, Gonzalez, Smith, and Marquis, equals fourteen more wins?

The NL West sucks pretty bad.  San Diego may be the worst team in baseball.

Pythagenpat does a pretty good job of handling that by creating a custom exponent based on a team’s runs scored and runs allowed per game, but I think I’ve seen research that as a team’s run differential increases on the offensive side to an extreme level (say 900+), it is less likely to lead to the expected wins.

The custom exponent makes a lot of sense to handle different behavior across the range of run differential while still accounting for the absolute number of runs allowed and scored.

The note on 900+ offenses leading to fewer expected wins is interesting.  I could see that.  A kind of diminishing returns.  I’d guess offenses that score that much likely have a clustering effect at the game level - just destroy bad pitching and have games where they score 10 runs+ or something like that.  Makes sense intuitively.

“The note on 900+ offenses leading to fewer expected wins is interesting.  I could see that.  A kind of diminishing returns.  I’d guess offenses that score that much likely have a clustering effect at the game level - just destroy bad pitching and have games where they score 10 runs+ or something like that.  Makes sense intuitively. “

Its not really because of that.  This is easy.  Run differential matters more the lower the run totals are, because the differential is a bigger % of the total.

A team with 500 RS and 300 RA will typically win more games than a 1000 RS 800 RA team even though the differential is the same, because the first team scored 1.7 times the opposition, while the second team scores only 1.25 times the opposition’s runs.

Its not really because of that.  This is easy.  Run differential matters more the lower the run totals are, because the differential is a bigger % of the total.

It’s a little of both I think.  In a league where the average runs per game is 4.8, a 10th or 11th run does very little to change your win expectancy.  So a team can put up 1000 runs but maybe 100 of them came in big blowouts where they didn’t change the team’s win expectancy at all.  The ledger shows that as a 10 win value, but reality wouldn’t.

So a team can put up 1000 runs but maybe 100 of them came in big blowouts where they didn’t change the team’s win expectancy at all.

Damn you, ARod!

Curious SG (as this relates to the last thread).  Who did you give the majority of playing time in CF too?  Thanks.

A team with 500 RS and 300 RA will typically win more games than a 1000 RS 800 RA team even though the differential is the same, because the first team scored 1.7 times the opposition, while the second team scores only 1.25 times the opposition’s runs.

This isn’t the point that was being discussed. We were only discussing runs scored not the relationship between runs scored and runs allowed.

You’re assuming that a teams runs scored are correlated with their runs allowed.  That may be true but that was not the point being made.

Couldn’t the 100 win team question also be answered by injuries?  It’s much more likely that a “100 win” team will suffer a significant injury and fall below the 100 win barrier than it is for a “90 win” team to have a season where one or more players blow away their projection to push the team to 100 wins.  Basically, in the 95-105 win regime, it seems like most of the volatility would be downward.  Conversley, I would bet that you see fewer 90-100 loss teams than is predicted as well, for the same but opposite reason.

Alright, so with a 102 win team, what the hell are the Yanks going to do to upgrade CF? And UIF!!!  We need an answer!

Who did you give the majority of playing time in CF too?

Willie Mays apparently.  a 102 win team on paper is outstanding. 

based on this, it looks like the chances of not AT LEAST being a wildcard is very small. 

in other words, the Yankees might underperform a little and Boston could overperform, but the next best team projects 14 games worse than the Yankees.

also, the Angels massively overperformed their run differentials last year, and they just lost a 1/2 season of Teixeira.  their offense is weak.  spending money on Fuentes and Juan Rivera instead of Manny is inexcusable.

Willie Mays apparently

Brett Garnder: runs like Hayes, hits like Mays.

How about the Blue Jays?  They project to have the 5th best record in the AL, yet project to have only a 6% chance at the playoffs.  Think they’ll lobby to get moved to the AL West?

Who did you give the majority of playing time in CF too?

I used the following split in CF:

Swisher: 40%
Gardner: 30%
Melky: 30%

I also used Swisher to spot Damon and Nady in the OF corners 20% of the time, and to back up Teixiera at 1B.  So despite not being a starter, Swisher was just about a full-time player.

Wow, outside of the AL East the entire American League looks to be mediocre at best. Pavano apparently gives the tribe an edge in the central.

I used the following split in CF:

Thanks.  Since Melky/Gardner project so similarly in total value, I’d imagine if you gave Gardner all 60% (or Melky) it wouldn’t change the outcome much.  I also think this is pretty close to the way the Yankees will play it.  E.g. if a lefty is pitching put Swisher in CF, etc.

The current state of the free agent market massively biases this analysis in favor the Yankees.  There are lots of free agents with VAR that will land with someone other than the Yankees.  Many of the rich teams have budget left without players.  The Yankees, in contrast, would appear to have more players than budget.  If they Nady gets salary dumped and 400 of his AB are replaced by Brett Gardner, their run estimate would decline.

Is there a way to adjust this analysis to take into account the remaining budget of teams that still have money to spend.  The Mets and Dodgers (and maybe the Angels), for example, look like candidates to do much better after their rosters are filled out.

SG,

Would it be possible in the future to run some risk models in your simulations?

Say for instance, what would happen if Posada gets hurt again?  Matsui’s knees act up?  Cano plays as badly as he did last season. CF is as bad as it was last year, etc.  I know that’s a combinatorial explosion waiting to happen but if you could take a look at a couple of scenarios like that at some point it would be great.

I ask because it seems like the yankees have a set of discrete risks that are on everyone’s mind.  And I wonder if any of those risks is great enough to cause the team to take a non-linear plunge in their probability to win the division/ wild card.

It looks like we project to have the best run prevention in the Majors.  Did you factor in 150 innings of Hughes?  I think that would make this a possible, but optimistic projection.

How about the Blue Jays?  They project to have the 5th best record in the AL, yet project to have only a 6% chance at the playoffs.

i didn’t even notice that SG had listed the playoff percentages up there, which makes my previous comment look comically non-insightful.  look everyone, ADDITION!!!!

Ha, I thought you were just mentally discounting for the quick-and-dirty aspect of these projections.

This isn’t the point that was being discussed. We were only discussing runs scored not the relationship between runs scored and runs allowed.

You’re assuming that a teams runs scored are correlated with their runs allowed.  That may be true but that was not the point being made.

If you are talking about run differentials, then it is relevant.  If runs scored go up, runs allowed go up for run differential to remain constant.

If you are just saying scoring more runs eventually gives diminishing marginal returns, I don’t understand the point.  You can only win 162 games total, and obviously your returns will fall off because you the number of games is finite

The current state of the free agent market massively biases this analysis in favor the Yankees.

Yeah, that’s why this is still too early to really be doing this.

Is there a way to adjust this analysis to take into account the remaining budget of teams that still have money to spend. 

Probably the best way to do this is look at each roster spot on the big market teams, find the ones that are in biggest need of an upgrade, and then pencil in the free agents who seem like the best fit, but that’s all theoretical.  Really, the only way to do this right is run it in March when rosters are more finalized.

Would it be possible in the future to run some risk models in your simulations?

In March I’ll run 1000 simulations with six or seven different projection systems.  Each projection system has slight differences that gives us a better idea of the inherent variance, and in some individual seasons there are significant injuries that cause teams to severely underperform, so maybe when I write about these projections later I’ll point to some of those specific seasons and what went wrong/right for certain teams.

I could add in specific risk scenarios but the problem is that there are so many different permutations that it would take forever to run.  You can probably just use a WAR type analysis against the projected numbers and get pretty close.  IOW, this assume Posada is healthy and can catch say 65% of the time.  Remove him, remove 3 wins, etc.,

It looks like we project to have the best run prevention in the Majors.  Did you factor in 150 innings of Hughes?

Average starter innings over 100 seasons:

If you are talking about run differentials, then it is relevant.

But that’s not what I was talking about.  I was only referring to the point made earlier on runs scored.  The rest of the comment was simply casual speculation on the point of why runs scored (and explicitly not run differential or runs allowed) would produce that behavior.

Surely these projections weren’t run after the Red Sox resigned Mark Kotsay. That’d surely change everything.

But seriously, was he just considered not enough of an offensive upgrade over Melky/Gardner to be pursued?

His CF defense hasn’t been good since 2004.  I’m not sure how much of an upgrade he would have been over Swisher in CF, and they already have him if they want to go with a former A’s OF.

I could add in specific risk scenarios but the problem is that there are so many different permutations that it would take forever to run.

I completely appreciate that problem.  It would require a lot of computational resources and would be prone to combinatorial explosions.

But I do think there are some very discrete “worst case” scenarios that could be isolated that would be particular instructive.  Posada going down is the first that comes to mind given how badly replacing Posada’s bat with Molina’s last year hurt the club.  Whatever you could feasibly do would be great.

Just looking at the CHONE projections at baseballprojection.com, it looks like over 150 games the dropoff from Posado to Molino is ~50 runs on offense.  That is definitely the riskiest part of the roster right now.  Not that I see anything Cashman can do to migate it right now.

Just looking at the CHONE projections at baseballprojection.com, it looks like over 150 games the dropoff from Posado to Molino is ~50 runs on offense.

Of course, some of that they’d get back in defense.  Say it’s a 4 windowngrade from Posada/Molina to Molina/Cash?  So they’re still a 97 win team, and right in it.  Of course, if Posada is out for the year and the team is struggling, Cashman will find a catcher at the deadline.  I think he’ll shoot a little higher than IRod…who knows?  Mauer may even be available then…

But seriously, was he just considered not enough of an offensive upgrade over Melky/Gardner to be pursued?

defense.

also, he’s bad at baseball.

decent bench guy for them i guess.

Mauer?  Jesus.  That’ll cost us Cano-plus, don’t you think?  Or something like AJax/Hughes?

Mauer?  Jesus.  That’ll cost us Cano-plus, don’t you think?  Or something like AJax/Hughes?

I have no idea.  Depends a lot on where the Twins are at the time, and how some prospects are doing.  E.g. it could cost Brackman, Kennedy, and Montero (assume Brackman and Montero are dominating in AA at this time, and Kennedy is dominating AAA and pitching some above-average innings in the majors). 

I just threw it out there as an example of how difficult it is to project how bad the Yankees could do in the “worst case”.  In the worst-case, they actually *could* end up better off.  Disaster breeds opportunity after all.

SG is coddling you.  These projections are a lie.  The additions of Smoltz and Baldelli added about 11 wins for the Sox.  They’re projected to score 980 runs and give up 90 less. They also show Beckett and Lester pitching perfect games on back to back nights.

it could cost Brackman, Kennedy, and Montero

Saltalamacchia would make more sense in that case.

Mauer is basically priceless, no?  Brackman, IPK & Montero for Mauer?  Done, in a heartbeat.  The Twins, on the other hand, might object…

i would do Brackman, Kennedy and Montero and drive them to Minnesota myself, all the while laughing hysterically that i just got one of the best players in baseball for an excellent, but very young, hitting prospect and 2 pitching prospects.

I hear ya, Mike K.  I’m just saying that’s an awfully ambitious upgrade, which could create nearly as many problems as it solves.  (In the back of my mind I’m also thinking about the intransigence of Twins GM Bill Smith during the Johan negotiations). 

If Jorge were toast, and let’s say Matsui or Damon are not 100% healthy either, I wonder if it would make more sense to pursue a big upgrade over Melky/Gardner in CF, assuming the right guy’s available.  It would cost less and there would be more options I’m guessing.

Question: is Jorge’s shoulder largely a throwing problem?  How much does it affect him at the plate?  I’m thinking about the possibility that he can be/needs to become nearly full-time DH.  Which would shed new light on the Matsui/Swisher/Nady/Damon logjam.

Mauer may even be available then…

I know they were talking about folding the Minnesota franchise a few years ago.  Unless that talk is revived, I don’t see him being available at any price.

Party at my house late Monday night when the Bellinger curse reaches 3,000 days.

The day the Twins say Mauer is available is the day to start worrying he can’t catch anymore.

It’s well known that Joe Mauer grew up in St. Paul and starred at a high school there before turning pro. He really is revered in the area. Along with their first baseman, they are the guys fans root for there.  A new ball park next year downtown will energize the team as well and likely coin some new money. It’s very remote that Mauer would not be offered a representative extension and be locked up. Also the owner who just passed away may have been more conservative than the son who will sign the checks in the future.  It should also not be discounted that, as we found out with Santana, the Twins organization like many other teams despise the large markets and won’t be making too many accomodating trades.

This via MLBTR:

“Two players expected to attend the Brewers’ open tryout this month: Randall Simon and Mark Bellhorn.”

In related news, the Miller Park sausage races for next year have been canceled as sausages abruptly handed in their letters of resignation.

You guys are taking this Mauer thing way too seriously.  Apparently I would have been better off not putting a name to it, and saying, “they could get a proven catcher”.  I’m just trying to point out that just because Posada may go down with a season-ending injury, doesn’t mean all is lost, and may actually be an opportunity for the Yankees to get better.  Case in point: when Aaron Boone went down, we got ARod for Soriano.  Though some don’t, I think most of us agree Boone going down actually ended up being a *boon* to the team.

Though some don’t, I think most of us agree Boone going down actually ended up being a *boon* to the team.

I see what you did there…

I see what you did there…

I may not be good at baseball analysis, but bad puns I’m an expert at!

I understand Mauer was a throwaway line, but not going to let you off the hook so easily.  Because unless you can get a player like Mauer, disaster often does not breed opportunity.  More likely it breeds Ivan Rodriguez.

Because unless you can get a player like Mauer, disaster often does not breed opportunity.  More likely it breeds Ivan Rodriguez.

Fair enough.  I guess my main point is that to wonder what the Yankees are going to look like w/o Posada is like me wondering how much of my hair is going to be left at this time next year; the only thing it’s going to change is how I feel about myself (not in a good way) since it’s not like I have a realistic backup plan if I start losing it at an accelerated rate.  But if it all falls out it may be a great opportunity for me to tattoo an 8-ball on the back of it!

But if it all falls out it may be a great opportunity for me to tattoo an 8-ball on the back of it!

you should do this anyway.

We already know how the Yankees would look without Posada.  It’s called 2008.

Hopefully, they have more depth this year to cover for it if it happens again.  Molina is still Molina, but they can run Swisher out to CF instead of a black hole.

How about the Blue Jays?  They project to have the 5th best record in the AL, yet project to have only a 6% chance at the playoffs.  Think they’ll lobby to get moved to the AL West?

Does anyone else think this imbalance of power might actually be a bad thing? Somehow the playoffs as an afterthought isn’t so appealing, even if we’re in them.

Somehow the playoffs as an afterthought isn’t so appealing, even if we’re in them.

Just wait until you miss them a few times.  It definitely becomes less of an afterthought after that.

Just wait until you miss them a few times.  It definitely becomes less of an afterthought after that.

I’ll have to ask some Mariner fans about that.

I’ll have to ask some Mariner fans about that.

No, you’ll just have to strain your brain and remember back all of three years.

When did we get the way cool logos?

How long until pitchers & catchers?

Pitchers, catchers and injured players report Feb. 14; remaining players may report February 17; mandatory reporting date is February 22, except for players in the WBC.

MC, the logos came as a direct result of the questioning of your team allegiance.

Still think the peanuts should go and the admins should get Yankee cap logos.  ‘Cause they’re the cappi.

MC, the logos came as a direct result of the questioning of your team allegiance.

I dunno, I went back and skimmed the rest of that thread, and I’d have to say it was pretty indirect.  I wouldn’t want to ascribe sinister motives to our esteemed SG, but it looks more like he was tweaking SSF and appeasing rikefan than defending my honor or anything.

Not that I’m not grateful.  The last Yankee logo I got without having to pay for it was drawn in crayon on construction paper by a six year old.

‘Cause they’re the cappi.

Who’s the capo did tutti?  And does he get a bigger cap?

Damn I’m good.  Typos in multiple languages.

How long until pitchers & catchers?

34 days.

AJ has some nice ‘n nasty splits against the Saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawx. Even better when pitching at that nasty sumbitch.

My vote for icon (for myself):

<img >

Mariano Rivera, the one Yankee everybody in the office can agree on.

How long until pitchers & catchers?

34 days.

In other words, way too freakin’ long.

Apparently, our good buddy, ol’ Glass Ass Pavano is unhappy with the way he was treated by the Yankees.  At this point, I pray he gets to pitch at the Stadium this season.

No, you’ll just have to strain your brain and remember back all of three years.

He said “a few times.” Somehow the 2001-2002 Sox have lost all relevance to me.

“When you’re down, you expect your organization to pick you up, not kick you when you’re down,” Pavano said. “I’ve had to pick myself up quite a few times the last four years.”

He can’t be farkin’ serious.

What a bitch.  Actually, apologies to the bitches out there.  What a Pavano.

For a guy who doesn’t think he should be thinking about hair loss, Mike K., you seem to be thinking an awful lot about hair loss.

Hopefully, they have more depth this year to cover for it if it happens again.  Molina is still Molina, but they can run Swisher out to CF instead of a black hole.

This is a good point.  Assume—and I know many here do not embrace this assumption—that your default lineup with everyone healthy should include Melky or Gardner in CF and a real bat (Matsui, Nady, Swisher or Damon) on the bench. 

If Jorge then goes down catastrophically, how much worse is Molina + the missing bat than Posada + Melky/Gardner?

If Pavano was trying to pitch (which is my guess) then he did get treated badly, esp. the last year or two - they went out of their way to humiliate him on at least several occasions I recall.

If he pitches well going forward, I think that’s somewhat good evidence for my view.  What would be good evidence against it?  He pitches well, gets a well-paying contract next time, then reports being injured and is perceived as malingering again?

Also, say you’re a pitcher, you sign a big contract then get hurt, etc. etc.: what do you do to avoid the Pavano treatment?  Retire, rehab, and get a new contract?  Would the system/union allow that?

I had actually thought about suggesting Mo as icon, but it seemed megalomaniac for an RLYW.

OK, I see your point rilkefan, and I don’t begrudge a man taking money that people throw at him but still…humiliation seems a strong word even though Cashman has no one to blame but himself for this asinine contract. 

Bottom line though: if I took home even my pitiful $65k and I was essentially unable to perform at all for 4 straight years…I’d feel kinda sorta a little bad about it, wouldn’t you? 

And if the dude from mlb.com asked me how I felt after earning about $65k for every batter I faced, I’d probably offer up nothing but harmless platitudes about how it didn’t work out in New York and I wish it had turned out better. 

Granted he expresses some regret and takes some responsibility elsewhere in the article, but I would’ve been vigilant about not implying that I was wronged or “kicked when I was down.”  Kicked?  The checks cleared didn’t they?

I had actually thought about suggesting Mo as icon, but it seemed megalomaniac for an RLYW

How about:

“New York’s a great place to play,” he said. “There’s no reason for me to focus on what happened to me, because that’s all behind me. I’m not holding any grudges.”

He should be holding grudges?

He should be holding grudges?

OK, I’ll bite. It’s not your money, and he didn’t want to be injured. Isn’t the real problem simply Yankee fans’ unrealistic expectations of Pavano staying healthy? Even the broken ribs thing, do people think he wanted to have a car accident?

I don’t really understand why fans are literally mad at Pavano. I could see why you’d be unhappy with fate, but is this really all Pavano’s fault?

And yes, I know Pavano is the third rail of Yankee blog subjects. But ever since you guys shrunk my icon, I don’t care anymore.

B-man, how much would you pay not to go through life as “Bruised-Buttocks-Man”?  Not to work in an office where e.g. Mussina throws you under the bus publicly, where the management sets you aside for ridicule as a condition of your employment?

SSF, the question of course is if he was really injured, or just was a fill-in-the-blank and refused to play through a little or no pain like a real man.  Or maybe if he was really injured but happy to be collecting a paycheck and not having to work for it.

The Giants are not that surprising.  Their starting pitching is that good, particularly with the addition of Randy Johnson.  Plus, the bullpen is greatly improved with the addition of Howry and Affeldt, and the second half additions of Romo and Hinshaw.  They plus Brian Wilson would make a very good core for the bullpen.

Offensively, while people continually harp on the lineup - and rightfully so - they forget that there are a number of great improvements expected for 2009.  One is the addition of Renteria.  Even if he duplicated last year’s sucky .699 OPS, he would still improve the Giants lineup by 0.1-0.2 runs/game over the putrid Bocock/Burriss/Vizquel/Ochoa amalgamation we had last season.  If he returns to his previous form, the offensive is that much better.  Second is having Sandoval play the full season at 3B, where the main offender there was Castillo with his .671 OPS.  Most projections don’t have Sandoval doing good offensively but they all have him rated much higher than Castillo. 

Most important of all, the Giants pitching staff should be greatly improved for 2009, assuming Cain and Lincecum do well again, because Sanchez looks to put together a good, full season in 2009 (he was great for half a season in 2008, with a sub-4 ERA), Zito looked like he had things figured out late in the season and hopefully can carry forward to 2009, and Johnson is a huge improvement over the #5 starters we trotted out in 2009, they were horrid in 2008.  And the aforementioned bullpen improvements.

I was shocked by the Colorado projection as well, but part of that is the assumption that Tulowitski would play a full season in 2009, whereas he as on the DL for half the season in 2008.

SSF, the question of course is if he was really injured, or just was a fill-in-the-blank and refused to play through a little or no pain like a real man.  Or maybe if he was really injured but happy to be collecting a paycheck and not having to work for it.

OK, I get that. Still, it seems unnecessary to a Sox fan, compared to hating on players like Bob Stanley or Calvin Schiraldi or Billy Buck who basically ruined my twenties. Why couldn’t they have just broken a rib and let someone else have the ball?

I was thinking the Giants were a Manny signing away from leading the division.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they made the post-season in 2009. 

It really is too bad they signed that Zito contract.  His fastball is under 85 mph now, and even “figuring it out” meant an ERA of 4.5+ in the second half.  He might not be completely toast, but that contract was an albatross from the second the ink dried, maybe even a little earlier.

I am excited to try to get to a game that Lincecum pitches.  I haven’t seen him live yet.

do people think he wanted to have a car accident?

Good luck with that.  I’ve been defending Pavano on that one since it happened.  The best you can hope for is that people will ignore you.  The worst is… well, it’s a lot worse.

the question of course is if he was really injured, or just was a fill-in-the-blank and refused to play through a little or no pain like a real man

As disastrous as the contract was, and as much as I get the impression that the guy is a real douche, and as much as you have to wonder why someone in his current circumstance wouldn’t just STFU about all of it, the fact remains that all of the objective evidence strongly supports the conclusion that he was in fact, really injured.  People don’t have ligament replacement surgery just to avoid working.  Malingerers don’t hide injuries suffered during rehab so that they can continue their rehab.  OTOH, there could be a whole lot of stuff that went on in the locker room that we won’t know about until everybody puts out their ghost written autobiographies, and I have a pretty hard time imagining that Mussina would have said the things he did if there wasn’t at least some basis for it.

Pavano’s biggest problem of course, is that all of the “real injury” stuff that could be viewed (or at least spun) a bit more favorably happened in the last two years of the contract, and the die was already cast half way through the first season.

I have a pretty hard time imagining that Mussina would have said the things he did if there wasn’t at least some basis for it.

Yeah, that’s a reliable indicator that he wasn’t well-liked. Still seems trifling compared to serving one up in the WS, but I appreciate your perspective.

I really, really like Cincinnati next season as a surprise team. They could be very good if Cueto develops and Harang bounces back. Neither possibility is that far out the question.

Matt Waters, love the new handle.

I appreciate your perspective

You’re welcome.  But my icon’s bigger than your icon.  Nyah-nyah.

Matt Waters, love the new handle

What, can’t handle Rikers?

Does it hurt that the nuts are bigger than your sox?

“I have a pretty hard time imagining that Mussina would have said the things he did if there wasn’t at least some basis for it.”

Maybe Moose is (or often is, or can be) a jerk (I’ve suspected that from [probably ambiguous] other stuff).  He’s also hardly been injured iirc, certainly not very long-term, so perhaps he’s less inclined than average to be sympathetic.

I read the other day that the team began to dislike Pavano as soon as he arrived - I wonder if he showed up arrogant and it rubbed guys with four rings the wrong way, and then the injuries doomed him to being despised.

Pavano didn’t want to have a car accident.

He also didn’t want to tell the Yanks about his injuries until the Yanks needed him to pitch.

86, 88. It’s a great song. Generally, the more insane music is, the more I like it. Now, back to the baseball discussion. Re: Pavano: He would have been a very good pitcher for the Yankees if he were healthy. Yes, he only had one truly excellent season before he signed that contract, but his stuff used to be flat-out nasty, before the injuries. You could still see glimmers of it after he returned this year, but the velocity and movement was diminished. His change is still a very good pitch. It has splitter action and quality deception. Now, combine that with a sinker in the nineties, and you, at one point, had a superb pitcher, which he would have been for the Yanks, in a hypothetical world where he was unbreakable and somebody else was Mr. Glass.

He also didn’t want to tell the Yanks about his injuries until the Yanks needed him to pitch.

Bullshit.  He pitched the day of the car accident, and told them about his ribs being “sore” later.  He deserves whatever he gets for lying about how those ribs got broken, but you can’t just ignore the fact that he pitched with them.

I don’t see the point in dwelling on Pavano.  He’s gone, he’s off the payroll and even when he did take the ball for the Yanks he wasn’t very good.  Surely, just about any other topic is more interesting.  I mean, we all know he’s a clown.  What more is there to say?

Bullshit.  He pitched the day of the car accident, and told them about his ribs being “sore” later.  He deserves whatever he gets for lying about how those ribs got broken, but you can’t just ignore the fact that he pitched with them.

Really? Well then I apologize if I’m mistaken. I must not be comprehending what I’m reading, because I keep reading things that point to him never starting for the Yanks in ‘06. He was rehabbing in the minors. And when his name was called to help out, he then came clean about his injury. But, you know, your right, I guess.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2564345

Updated: August 29, 2006, 1:32 PM ET

NEW YORK—Yankees pitcher Carl Pavano has a pair of broken ribs, sustained in a mid-August car accident that the oft-injured right-hander didn’t tell the team about until Monday.

Pavano said he was hurt early Aug. 15 in West Palm Beach, Fla., when on a rainy night his car hit a puddle, spun out of control and hit a truck that was at a stop sign.

Pavano, who hasn’t played in the major leagues since June 27, 2005, due to shoulder, back, buttocks and elbow injuries, is scheduled for a medical checkup Tuesday and remains on track to make his final rehabilitation start Wednesday for Triple-A Columbus at Durham.

New York had hoped Pavano possibly would be able to rejoin its rotation this week, filling the spot opened when Mike Mussina went on the disabled list last week with a strained right groin. Pavano and Cashman both expressed hope that this latest injury wouldn’t keep Pavano from rejoining the major league team when rosters expand this week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090107/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bba_indians_pavano

He missed the entire 2006 season and his work ethic and willingness to get back were questioned by some teammates. During his rehab, Pavano broke two ribs in a car accident but initially neglected to inform the Yankees.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=pavanca01&year=2006&t=p

No Data for this season, Sorry!

I could see why you’d be unhappy with fate, but is this really all Pavano’s fault?

As Rilke already noted, the question is if he was as hurt as he made out to be….each time.  I remember hearing about unhappiness within the clubhouse regarding this speculation and with Pavano’s lack of effort, or something to that effect.

To be honest, I kind of liked him before he came to the Yankees.  I got to see him pitch as a teenager here in Connecticut.  Thought it was interesting when he signed.
As for the car accident - wasn’t he with some super hot model at the time?  He should know better than to drive with one of those.  Of course you’re going to get distracted, crash, and add to your ridiculously large list of injuries.

From my perspective, the Pavano case is more interesting from a sociological standpoint (the importance of machismo and stoicism in American sports and manhood, the place of the outsider/other, blah blah) than a baseball one.  I know it’s my tendency to try to read the data as favorably for individuals as possible, but the evidence MC cites entirely convinced me at the time that Pavano was (at least then) trying hard to come back despite pain.  Maybe he wasn’t as committed earlier as noted, and then confirmation bias set in with the team.  Incidentally I would guess that there’s a very strong correlation between those angry at Pavano and those unhappy with ARod’s insecurity and self-consciousness.

I suspect one can see NoMass starting the standard Pavano take with Phil Hughes.

Just to bore those without kids, the 2.5-year-old Rilkekind asked to sit next to his 0.5-year-old brother at daycare yesterday and gave him a teddy bear.  Another infant crawled by and took the bear, but Rilkekind took it back, saying, “That’s [my brother]‘s!”.  (He also asked for ‘“Oh My Darling” with “bananas”’.)  We seem to have a very strong innate sense of fairness, and it’s hard to stomach the idea of a guy getting away with earning $40 million to not pitch, so the sympathy-for/anger-at Pavano function is bound to be very asymmetric.

He was rehabbing in the minors.

Yes, and he made a rehab start in Tampa that night.  They were not going to call him to start in the majors until he’d also made rehab starts at higher levels, and they shut him down after he came clean about the accident.  He never made that last rehab start at AAA because they shut him down when he finally came clean about the ribs.

I don’t blame Cashman one bit for shutting him down after finding out about the lie, and I don’t blame fans or teammates for making that incident the last straw.  But the fact is that this might of been the one time in his life when he actually wanted to try to pitch through something and the team wouldn’t let him.  Since that doesn’t fit with the rest of the narrative, people change it to make it fit.  Including the stuff from those “reporters” you quoted.  The problem isn’t that you don’t comprehend what you’ve read; it’s that you’ve read selectively.

I’m not a Pavano fan by any means.  Like I’ve said repeatedly, he deserves at least 90% of the crap he gets.  I’m only talking about the other 10%.

then confirmation bias set in with the team

And the press.  And us.

it’s hard to stomach the idea of a guy getting away with earning $40 million to not pitch

Yet amazingly enough, Pavano’s isn’t even the worst FA starting pitching signing of the Pavano era.  For instance, Jason Schmidt has gotten $31M from the Dodgers for 26 innings over the past two years, and has another $16M coming for 2009.  That’s well over $1M per inning; Pavano “only” got ~$275K.  So Schmidt needs to throw 144 innings in 2009 for his deal to turn out as “well” as Carl’s.