AJ is smoking crack if he turns down that deal.

Could be something irrational, but I rather sign Burnett than Lowe.

Don’t do it- let ATL have him.

Could be something irrational, but I rather sign Burnett than Lowe.

I’d rather sign neither at this point, especially for the amount of $$‘s they’re talking about.  Sign Pettitte and Sheets.  Or just Pettitte OR Sheets.  Or Pettitte and if they want Hughes to start in the minors (and don’t like Sheets) see if you can get a low-cost option like Garland or Webb for one year.

If they are going to INSIST on signing one of Lowe or Burnett to a 5+ year, $16M+ AAV contract…I guess with Sabathia and Wang already on the team I’ll take Burnett.  For the next couple of years I think Lowe is a safer bet, but years 3-5 they’re probably equal in risk, with Burnett having a much higher upside.

Burnett>>>>>>>>>>Lowe for the same $.  Burnett faces real comeptition, Lowe didn’t. I’d rather get Andy for $10M.  I guess we are seeing how little confidenece the organziation has in Hughes and IPK at this point. 

By the way- did the Mutts make a heist or is Putz damaged goods and Reed a has-been former prospect bust?  They seem to have given up nobody goos- is this the case?

I’ll be happy if end up with a rotation of CC, Wang, Joba, Burnett and Hughes. But I rather not spend the money on Burnett and sign Pettitte to a one year deal if and only if Cashman wants to improve the lineup by signing Teixera or Dunn.

But I think I rather sign both Burnett and Teixera.

Burnett would definitely be a better signing than Lowe because he is younger and his strikeout rate is much higher - which is important given the Yanks’ sub-par defense.  I agree with Mike K., though, and would prefer Pettitte and Sheets on short-term deals.  Also, I wouldn’t say the organization has lost confidence in Hughes and IPK, they are just being realistic about the fact that neither will hit their ceiling next season although both will probably improve.  Also, with Joba’s innings limit and Burnett’s propensity for injury, the chances of Hughes and Kennedy pitching in the majors at some point next year are highly probable.

Sheets for two years>>>>Burnett for 5.  Other then his performance against Yankees last year he was hardly spectacular.  Heyman says Yanks not out of Texeira auction-that might be money better spent.

Giving up on Hughes at his age would be crazy-he still has a very real chance to be a big time pitcher

Burnett’s ERA was over 14 against all non New York Yankees teams last year.

14?!?!?!?!?!?

Over 14? Wow.

Lowe pitched against the worst division in baseball in a pitching park. Please don’t sign Lowe.

“Sheets for two years>>>>Burnett for 5”

Two things you don’t know yet- 1) If Sheets can be had for 2 years 2) The state of their respective arms (which the Yankees do know)

John meant over 4.

However, Burnett has owned the Red Sox every year he’s been in the AL.

You don’t actually believe that, right?

He had a good start late against the Rays, or it would have been 15.

ERA+ adjusts for division and park, and he was still awesome.

Also, I’m pretty sure John M. is wrong or joking, or the number may be skewed by a horrid start vs. MIL and some bad games vs. BAL. He pitched really well vs. BOS and TB.

Burnett is a way better sign than Lowe. I’d love less years but this is way better than signing Lowe to the same length contract. I’m OK with this if it happens.

There’s also a lot on 0s, 1s and 2s on the ER line of his game logs. There are also a large number of 6s, 7s, and 8s. Burnett had a strange season, I’m willing to bet that the number of games where he gets destroyed goes down far more than the number of games he dominates in the future.

ERA+ adjusts for division and park

I thought it was league and park.  I could be wrong though.

Am I the only one who doesnt want Cameron? I dont care about losing Melky but we know what cameron brings to the table (slightly above average defense, mediocre at best offense) and he has a bad attitude from what i understand. Why not give Gardner a shot (if he earns it)? The upside potential is there

I thought it was league and park.  I could be wrong though.

You’re not.

DaPuj- I think you are wrong.

I’m no Saber-expert so cirrect me if I’m wrong (Im sure you will).  My problem with ERA+ is that is compares a pitcher’s performance relative to their league.  But that assumes that league’s have equal talent (and it’s not just the DH that seperates them).  If D.Lowe pitched in the NYC HS baseball league I’m sure his ERA+ would be even better but that wouldn’t mean he’d have more success in the AL East than Burnett.

Hmm, I thought I read here that ERA+ was adjusted to division. Guess not.

[16] was re:—- what, exactly?

Yeah, DaPuj was right and I was wrong.

“ERA+ - the ratio of the league’s ERA (adjusted to the pitcher’s ballpark) to that of the pitcher. > 100 is above average and < 100 is below average. lgERA / ERA”

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/pitch_glossary.shtml

Another problem with ERA+, and something that gets mentioned when people talk about Ford a lot, the pitcher doesn’t have to face his own team.

dcristal, you’re not alone.  Better to wait for a worthwhile upgrade & keep the younger players until the.  And, MC, I don’t think the diff. between the celestial talents of Mike Cameron and the pedestrian efforts of Melky/Gardner could possibly create a gaping chasm out of which the team would be unable to extract itself if a really worthwhile deal were not made until mid-season.  If such thing happened, it would be due to more global factors.

mediocre at best offense

How is a 110 OPS+ from CF, with 17 stolen bases in 22 tries, mediocre at best?  Especially when we’re currently penciled in for something like a 75?  Cameron has had one season that wasn’t significantly better than Melky’s best season, and I’m pretty sure he was hurt that year.

I’m not in love with Cameron, but he’s a perfectly acceptable stop gap in a year when CFers are looking pretty hard to come by.

Right.  I remember reading about how “pitching in the AL East” wasn’t really as big a deal as everyone made it out to be, as long as you pitched for the Yankees or the Red Sox.  With the emergence of the Rays, it’s becoming a bigger deal.  The fact that Burnett pitched for the worst offensive team in the division is a bonus for the context of his stats.  Although he did get to face WOE.

If the Yanks ever decide to move some of their young pitching I hope it’s for a stud outfielder. As I posted earlier today, it’s a bit worrying that Damon, Matsui, Nady, and Cameron will all be FA after 2009. They’d have some serious leverage for extensions. Unless Cashman is banking on signing Holliday, which I hope he isn’t.

OK..so I may have underrated his offense. But still he is WAY on the wrong side of 30 (he will be 36 opening day).

I would rather let one of the kids (preferably Gardner) show what they can do. Also is it really fair to compare Camerons career to Melky’s?

...I don’t think the diff. between the celestial talents of Mike Cameron and the pedestrian efforts of Melky/Gardner could possibly create a gaping chasm out of which the team would be unable to extract itself…

Fine.  Whatever.  You guys really just don’t have a sufficient appreciation of the tremendous downside potential of Cabrera/Gardner.  Melky was close to historically bad with the bat last season, and Gardner is as good a bet to hit .210/.260/.290 as he is to be within shouting distance of league average.  You might be able to cover for that kind of black hole if you have Teixeira and Dunn instead of Swisher and Nady, but the team as currently constituted can’t carry a pitcher’s spot in a DH league (or two when Molina plays).

Who cares if he’s 36? He’s on a one-year deal. If he was pretty good at 35, he shouldn’t drop off TOO much at 36. At the very least, he’ll still be much better than Melky, who, as MC just eloquently described, blew real hard last year.

If they have CC, Burnett, Wang, Joba, and Hughes locked up until 2013 then they can trade all the rest of teh pitching for a young OF and collect draftpicks on Damon, etc. to restock (by going over slot, of course).

The one-year thing is key.  Hence the term “stop-gap”.  Cameron is worth $10M to be able to put up an OPS+ of 100-105, steal a few bases (although he was pretty close to the break-even point last year), and play averagish D in the outfield.

Also is it really fair to compare Camerons career to Melky’s?

Fine.  Compare their projections.  They’re rumored to be traded for each other, so it seems some comparison is in order.  Bottom line: 1) losing Melky’s future just isn’t that big a deal, 2) Cameron makes the offense better without sacrificing much (if any) defense, and 3) Gardner will still get a chance to contribute as a 4th/5th OF.  If Melky’s L/R splits were reversed, I could sort of see giving a platoon a shot, but lefties will absolutely kill either one of them.  Cameron hits lefties quite well.

“either one of them” being Cabrera and Gardner, of course.

What’s the break-even point on SB%? 70%?

MC, that’s all true.  Agree (with [34].  I did write earlier, however, that I recognize that Cameron would be a statistically significant improvement over what we have.  The only question is - if we get him, we probably prevent any other CF solution; therefore, I’m not comparing him solely to Melky/Gardner, but to an admittedly unsubstantiated supposition that better options might be available to be had.  More responsible would be to multiply the value of the preferable option by the percentage chance of getting it, but I don’t know how to come by that data, so I have to guess.  I imagine some of you can do better at that, but I do think that this should be the framework of the discussion.

Some guy totally burns Pete Abe in the comments:

“Pete, this is a very unprofessional post. mlbtraderumors are just reporting on what 2 other reporters wrote. I like thier site very much, they have been on top of everything, working all hours, and not sleeping through all the major news! It is also quite refreshing to read a blog with all baseball news, not a play-by-play description of the food they eat in every post…”

70%

approximately yes

seems like Sheets’ health is giving the yankees’ pause.  it’s great to get a “bargain”, but it’s meaningless if he can’t pitch.  i love the guy, but i trust they did their due diligence here.  they met with him, met with his agent, i am sure they looked at his medical records.  it’s not like they don’t WANT to save the extra $50M or whatever.  also, why hasn’t anyone else made an offer?

and Cashman flew to Texas today to meet with Pettitte.

it looks like it’s going to be CC, Burnett, and Pettitte. 

sounds like the best Yankee rotation in 5 years.

Not concerned about losing melky, concerned about defense and the development of Gardner. I’m not of the opinion that we have to really improve the offense. Cano cannot be as bad as last year, we should not have a black hole at catcher, and matsui healthy should offset the departure of the big G.

I think the 900 run seasons were spoiling. This team does not have to bludgeon their opponents to win games (seems like they have a more pitching and defense strategy).

CC, Burnett, and Pettitte.

...and Teixeira.

Do it, Cashman.  DO IT!!!

What is Gardner going to develop into?

But bludgeoning opponents - whatever Pete Abe and his professor thinks - does help win games.  Scoring more runs is quite comparable to preventing more runs.  Isn’t it the ‘69 Pirates I’m thinking of now?

Repeat after me, everyone: bludgeoning is our friend!

Well I would consider him a plus defender already. If he could figure out ML pitchers and post a decent line he will steal 50 bases a year. Sounds good for CF to me.

What is Gardner going to develop into?

I could tell you, but then I’d have to kill you.

Repeat after me, everyone: bludgeoning is our friend!

Especially as it pertains to beat writers who write silly stuff.

I think the bludgeoning comment crept in to my subliminal from Michael Kay. My point is that Adding Cameron and subtracting whoever is not going to be the difference between bludgeoning and not bludgeoning. If the question is to bludgeon or not bludgeon..I would vote bludgeon.

[51] Certainly.

Hey, if I were leading a barnstorming team against Gehrig’s crew, I could call it the Bludgeoning ‘Bats!

What is Gardner going to develop into?

Reggie Willits of 2007, if he is lucky. Which is a fine player, really.

Then again, he could just as well be Reggie Willits 2008, which is not so fine.

My head hurts from reading Wombat in 41.  Who are these other options of which you speak?  Cameron for a year at $10m, if it costs only Melky, is a no-brainer.

I really don’t care for the Burnett thing at all.  Just madness.  I’ll be upset if this somehow translates into a willingness to let Pettitte go.

And has there been any indication that signing Burnett means there’s nothing in the cupboard for Teixeira?

Maybe this has been discussed already ad nauseum, but anyway: THT put out a piece last week about BABIP and which hitters are good candidates for bounce-back seasons.  Swisher was high on the list.  So was Giambi, actually, although I don’t remember whether the study took the shift into account.

The only question is - if we get him, we probably prevent any other CF solution; therefore, I’m not comparing him solely to Melky/Gardner, but to an admittedly unsubstantiated supposition that better options might be available to be had.

But what other CF solution are you looking to?  Again, its only a two-year deal, if it happens.  The CF solution I see down the road is Austin Jackson.  And the Cameron deal does nothing to prevent that.  Any other CF solution you may be looking for would likely screw with Austin Jackson’s future.

Perhaps it would be relevant to ask: if a better CF option came around, would anyone be likely to want Cameron?  It’s not a facetious question.  Teams do appear to have at least SOME interest (justifiable or not) in Melky.

Anybody know the projected payroll as of now? Maybe about $164M right now. Add in another 28 for burnett and pettitte combined, 10 for cameron and we are about where we started. I think old mother hubbard went to the cupboard too many times to have a bone for tex.

Perhaps it would be relevant to ask: if a better CF option came around, would anyone be likely to want Cameron?  It’s not a facetious question.  Teams do appear to have at least SOME interest (justifiable or not) in Melky.

But those are not the Sizemore’s of the world, or even Nate McLouths or Matt Kemps. I just don’t see what are the better options at CF that would just cost Melky (plus maybe a B pitching prospect).

Sam, I agree.  But I’d rather
A: wait for a better option that costs MORE than Melky, but be worth paying for
than
B: get something that’s admittedly better than what we have, but still not particuarly great, and that would be difficult to unload (thus making it harder to go for the better option if and when it arose).

At the same time, I fully admit that I can’t offer the solution right now.  Does anyone have any insight into what might be available over the next few months, given the economy and the likely unfolding of the 1st half of the season?

Who knows if the next CF could be had as cheaply? A bird in the hand…

I’m not comparing him solely to Melky/Gardner, but to an admittedly unsubstantiated supposition that better options might be available to be had

I was going to post a very clever, witty and detailed reply, but instead: what Jonathan said.  I’ll just add—if you’re not looking to block Jackson, then who’s a better available stopgap than Cameron?

I’m not of the opinion that we have to really improve the offense.

You see, that’s your problem right there.

My point is that Adding Cameron and subtracting whoever is not going to be the difference between bludgeoning and not bludgeoning.

Forget bludgeoning.  There will be no bludgeoning.  For this team to have real bludgeoning potential, they’d have to sign Teixeira, Dunn and Ramirez, and play Damon in CF.  Ain’t gonna happen.

The point is not that the offense as currently constructed won’t score 900 runs.  The point is that the offense as currently constructed might not score as many runs as they scored last year.  I take a back seat to no one in hoping for healthy years from Matsui and Posada, and a big bounce-back from Cano.  But hoping for is not the same thing as counting on.  Cameron is all about adding a little bit of certainty to the team’s overall offensive projection.  I believe that’s a lot more valuable than a lot of you folks seem to think.

be worth paying for = would be worth paying for

Does anyone have any insight into what might be available over the next few months…

In terms of legitimate centerfielders that won’t cost way more than you’d want to give up, I’d say our old friends jack and shit.

Are you saying that lots and lots of question marks with upside don’t average out to certainty, MC?  Damn you, you and your vaunted ‘reality!’
Oh, fine.  You win.

Perhaps it would be relevant to ask: if a better CF option came around, would anyone be likely to want Cameron?

Cameron’s OPS last season was .809.  Only 6 CF had a higher OPS - Hamilton, Sizemore, Beltran, McClouth, Granderson and Hunter.  McClouth is a horrendously awful defensive CF and is really a corner outfielder playing pretend so you could even throw him out.

As it is, I don’t think any of those 6 guys is available.  Nevermind being available for Melky Cabrera +/- a second tier pitching prospect.

Cameron is 2-2.5 WAR better than Gardner projects.

If there are other options to pick up 2-2.5 wins through an upgrade at CF fine.  But those are going to be tough to come by.

Oh an BTW, here’s a real shocker from MLBTR:

Tim Brown and Gordon Edes talked to involved execs ... who believe the Boras camp is “using the media to ratchet up the price beyond what any team had actually offered.”

The fiend!

For the love of God, why can’t they just stick to doing what agents are SUPPOSED to… oh, wait.  Never mind.

you and your vaunted ‘reality!’

We’re all forced to visit once in a while.  Like when we run out of drugs, for instance.

Alright, I’m giving up for now. Cameron would not be sooo bad…as long as he does not get caught with more PEDs or fucks up Girardi’s kumbaya clubhouse.

How is Cameron’s arm? Only 16 assists in the last 3 seasons…although I know that does not tell the whole story.

Cameron has a good arm for CF.  Not great. But it’s certainly not weak.  Good.  People aren’t going to take exra bases on him without thinking about it.

Is anyone a little concerned about the lack of power the lineup is projecting right now?  The only one who has any chance to knock 30 homers is A-Rod.  Is Cashman simply banking on resurgences from Posada and Matsui?

-Nate

Nate- I think almost everyone here is concerned. That’s why we’re all begging for Tex.

Is anyone a little concerned about the lack of power the lineup is projecting right now?  The only one who has any chance to knock 30 homers is A-Rod.

Funny you should mention that, seeing as Mike Cameron hit 25 HR in 120 games in 2008.  It’s also funny that I find myself sounding like the guy’s agent.  I don’t really think that highly of him, but boy does he really fill a need on this team or what?

Yeah.  Average aint nothing to sneeze at.  Especially when the “average” hitter actually plays CF like a CFer.

The power issue is a big reason for why Cameron is nice addition.

Marcel projects Gardner to have a .282 wOBA with a .299 slugging pct and an IsO of 0.129.  That’s hard to believe. An IsO of 0.129.  Last year Gardner’s IsO was 0.07. 

Now all of Gardner’s projections would have wide error estimates around them given his small sample size but still those numbers are horrendous.  And if he hit at those estimates the line up would be sunk.  Its not the kind of line up that can float one spot that makes out 70% of the time and has an IsO of .129.

Cameron projects to have a .333 wOBA with a .436 slg % and a .193 IsO.  That looks much better, particularly given the rest of the line up.

...a .299 slugging pct and an IsO of 0.129…

Wait a second… Marcel projects Gardner to hit a buck seventy?  You’re right, that is hard to believe.  I mean, I’m the guy who is extremely skeptical that he’ll ever be able to do a passable impersonation of a major league hitter, but .170?  He could bunt .170 in his sleep.

According to Fangraphs, the Marcel projection is .257/.322/.386

Wait a second… Marcel projects Gardner to hit a buck seventy?

Sorry.  Thanks for picking up that mistake. I was originally going to post his numbers from last year and then decided to switch to his projections.

His slg % last season was .299.  Next year marcel projects him to have a BA .257/ OBP .322 / slg% of .386 and an iso of .129.

Thanks for catching that.

According to Fangraphs, the Marcel projection is .257/.322/.386

And the Bill James Handbook projects .271/.367/.354.  I think Marcel is optimistic on the slugging and James is optimistic on the BA/OBP.  My WAG is that Marcel’s BA and James’ ISO are more likely, so I’m going to say .258/.325/.341 (I bumped him up a few points here and there so the OPS would be a nice round .666; the mark of the replacement level beast.)

CFers who OPSed higher than Cameron: Hamilton, Sizemore, Beltran, Granderson, McLouth, Hunter. Think any of those guys are available? I don’t. A guy who will OPS in the top 25% in the league and be top 10 (maybe top 5) defensively while getting paid almost exactly his real value is exactly what the Yanks need to bide time until Jackson is ready. Why is this even debatable? Does anyone think that some young stud is going to be available? And even if he were, why would you want that when the best positional prospect in the organization is a CF who is a year to 18 months away from the majors? I don’t get it. Gardner is probably never better than a 4th or 5th OF for a contending team, so why not have him be the 5th OF?

For the love of God.  Not again.

His slg % last season was .299.  Next year marcel projects him to have a BA .257/ OBP .322 / slg% of .386 and an iso of .129.

Could be wrong, but I think a .708 OPS is probably above replacement-level for a CF.  Anyway, I’m not here to argue that, just pointing that out.  I’m a big fan of Gardner.  I believe he can be an average CF, offense+SB+defense…just maybe not *next* year (age 25 I believe).  Ages 26-28?  Quite possibly.  And an average CF is quite valuable, especially one that brings some fairly unique skills to a team (his speed is probably better than anyone else in the organization, at least above A ball). 

However, unless the Yankees add significant offense elsewhere (I think MC is exaggerating a little, but at least Tex), PLUS get some good luck with bouncebacks, they could use an upgrade.  So…trading Melky (who doesn’t add much over Gardner and would probably be in AAA playing RF) for Cameron makes perfect sense, for all the reasons people have cited above.  Gardner will also get 300+ PA I believe, as a 4th OF.  Or at least, he will if he earns it.  That should be enough to allow him to continue to develop, and give the Yankees an IDEA of what they have in him.

Truly and honestly, Cameron doesn’t block Gardner from having a shot at being the starting CF for the Yankees in 2010.  The two players that could do that are AJax and Gardner.

If AJax is ready in 2010 I’ll eat my hat.
He repeats AA this year and spends 2010 is AAA.
Full time duty at the earliest in 2011.
Remember, he may have lots of tools but the numbers he put up this year in AA really were ok rather than impressive

I don’t think its ridiculous to think AJ could be ready in 2010.  If he has an outstanding year in AA in ‘09, he’ll more than likely be called up in September when the rosters expand. 
Anytime later than 2011 and it means there’s a problem.

He’s starting at AA, but if he plays well he could play more than half this season at AAA. If he succeeds at AAA for the first half of 2010 then he could very well steal the CF job in the Bronx from a slumping Gardner.

Of course, all this is contingent on him actually developing, but that’s what top prospects are supposed to do and that is what the Yanks are hoping for.

In ‘07, for instance, he started the season at Charleston (where he had played the year before), played well for 60 games, then was brought up to Tampa for the rest of the year. I would think the Yanks would be hoping that he’ll make the jump to AAA halfway through this year.

Manny being Manny:

Ken Davidoff writes that Manny is feeling ignored on the free agent market, and will consider retiring if he doesn’t receive a good offer soon.

(MLBTR)

Fine with me. The Yanks aren’t going to sign him, so I would rather never have to see him step to the plate against the Yanks again.

I think a .708 OPS is probably above replacement-level for a CF

A .708 OPS in Yankee Stadium in 2008 would have been good for an OPS+ around 85, if that helps.

I think MC is exaggerating a little

No I’m not.  I said they’d need all those additions to have a bludgeon-o-rific juggernaut.  I’m not suggesting that they need to add four bats just to have enough offense to contend.

Yankees make new offer to Sabathia,  8/185, just to be sure.

Don, there’s not any horse left. You’re just golfing little bits around.

Clay!

How are the finals coming along?

Clay, get a sense of humor.

Oh, the irony…

Harpy stickin’ your nose in I see.

That’s what harpies do, dontcha know.

I don’t care what anyone here says, I’m a big fan of Don.