I’m in favor of using Joba as a starter also, but to be fair to the alternative, shouldn’t we figure out what the typical leverage index of a setup man is and use that to adjust the IP numbers for the reliever role? 

To be more accurate still, we could consider the Yankees actual projections for RS and RA in the LI model, but that may be more trouble than it’s worth, even if it is relevant (since a team that scores just under 6 runs/game is going to win a lot more blowouts than average, and if we combine blowout wins with games where the Yankees are behind after the 6th, 7th and top of the 8th innings, there will almost certainly be some low leverage outings needed just to get enough work).

To be more accurate still, we could consider the Yankees actual projections for RS and RA in the LI model, but that may be more trouble than it’s worth, even if it is relevant

Sounds like something that might be useful to try out in Diamond Mind when I get through the Santana trade stuff and another project I’m doing.

I’d guess average LI for a set up man is around 1.5, so Joba may be just as valuable as a reliever as a starter in 2008, but long-term he’d be most valuable to the team as a 200 inning starter, and I’d like to see the team build him to that over the next two seasons.

SG, how useful are these? Considering you have one years worth of data at multiple levels to work with.

My immediate reaction is the reliever #s are way off but the starter projection looks pretty reasonable, if a bit on the negative side.

i think joba as the set-up man is the best thing for the team out of the gate. However, there is one huge IF. IF the projected 5 (wang pettitte mussina kennedy and hughes) can come out of spring training healthy and EFFECTIVE. Who is to say that kennedy (or hughes although i think its less likely) oesnt bomb his first 5 starts next season? Then what? continue to run him out there or send him to scranton?

also SG I dont know how I feel about your “3-4 innings every 4 or 5 days” guidelines. Im optimistic but I dont think joba will get that opportunity for a few reasons. 1. what if starters get on a roll and he cant get that many innings 2. we might (by might i mean will) need him for consecutive appearances 3. the situation might not dictate good use of his arm
I think its a good idea to get him multiple innings but i dont think you can plan to just throw him out there for 4 innings and tell him to use all his pitches.

I like your idea about gradually working him into the rotation.

I propose (i know im not the first or the last) that you use hughes and joba to shadow eachother. We should be limiting hughes innings too….no?

i just watched the yankee classic where arod takes schilling deep when he comes in as the closer…good stuff

Since the Yankees need to limit the innings of both Joba and Hughes and also need to add some reliable bullpen innings this looks like a way to kill two birds with one stone. I wouldn’t want to see Hughes and Joba doing their bullpen time in single blocks though, that might adversely affect their development as starters. As long as their bullpen innings are programmed (modified Joba rules) I like it.

I’m liking this.  I’m sure the Yankees will “need” Joba more often than the guidelines, but there’s always the rest of the guys in the bullpen.  You can’t play every regular season game as if it’s a five-game postseason series.

Also, I ‘m fully expecting Joba to post the first ever negative ERA.  The Slider of Doom will actually erase runs from the scoreboard.

I dont know how I feel about your “3-4 innings every 4 or 5 days” guidelines. Im optimistic but I dont think joba will get that opportunity for a few reasons.

The Yankees play 19 straight days in April, and 32 games in 33 days in April and May.  Most starters aren’t ready to pitch deep into games right out of the gate.  So I think it’s quite likely that there will be ample opportunity to use Joba in exactly this way early on, especially with Mussina and a couple of 22 year olds comprising 60% of the rotation.

the Yankees need to limit the innings of both Joba and Hughes

Not to put way too much stock in Olney’s source or anything, but this doesn’t make it sound like they think Hughes needs to be limited much, if at all.

I think Mussina is one of the bigger question marks going into April.  I really am not sure what to expect from him at this point.  Maybe he’ll discover he’s tipping his knuckle-curve in ST.

Another good thing about Christmas is all the Victoria’s Secret commercials on TV.

I’m in favor of Hughes and Joba shadowing each other for much of the year.

Every 5th game, one of the two starts (probably Hughes) and pitches for 5 innings, and then the other relieves him and pitches the final 4.

Gives the pen a guaranteed rest every 5th day, it effectively limits the innings of the two pitchers who need it the most, it keeps their stamina up in order to be a starter should (when?) another pitcher goes down and they need a spot starter, and it allows the Yankees to separate them towards the end of the year to get the extra innings in time for the playoffs, when they are guaranteed to not get above their innings cap.

Here’s a link to Johan Santana’s 2003 gamelog: 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=santajo02&t=p&year=2003

I could see Joba doing this to great effect for the Yankees next year.  It’ll keep his innings down, bolster the bullpen early, and give the Yankees options as the season progresses.

If the plan is to make him a setup man and then just push him into the rotation I’ll be less fond of it.

I think you’re defining “set-up man” as “8th inning reliever”.  I think in this case “set-up man” is probably being used more generically to indicate any non-closing reliever.  Whatever the usage, I can’t imagine the Yankees would do anything to burn his arm out in the bullpen.

Oh yeah, I think it’d be perfect if he is used in a Johan Santana mold.

I just doubt that will be how he’ll be used. I think he’ll be used JUST like last year, and everyone will fall in love with how awesome of a reliever he is, and it’ll be that much harder to get him into the rotation.

That said, if it IS the Santana thing, then I’m totally down with it.

I’m in favor of Hughes and Joba shadowing each other for much of the year.

Several of us have advocated this, and even Rob Neyer agrees, but it’s pretty clearly not going to happen.  Too unconventional, I guess.

As long as Joba ends up as a starter, I’m fine with it.

“Not to put way too much stock in Olney’s source or anything, but this doesn’t make it sound like they think Hughes needs to be limited much, if at all.”

that is putting all your stock in a single blog from a single reporter…just because olney didn’t mention hughes innings does not mean the yanks are ready to let him rip. If anything I think they should be MORE careful with hughes than joba given his injurious season

“If anything I think they should be MORE careful with hughes than joba given his injurious season”

Whom did he harm?

“Whom did he harm?”

Texas.
In an emotional way.

Frog .. He attempted to harm Youkilis, failed ,and we all loved it. Well I did.
Mr. the Hutt of course not Phil.
SG… Thanks for the Mo Pro. As usual you are as dependable as a Toyota. And more fun too.
Got back from the Ale Store a wee time ago. Filling up the bomb shelter in case a crazed IE rides a commie rocket north and takes us out.
Stores include the following… Chimay Grand Reserve, pricey but so nicey.
Duvel, the golden ale God would drink if he liked golden ales and had a decent job.
La Fin Du Monde,  The best thing to come out of Quebec since The French and Indian War.
Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale. This years version is hoppier than a kangaroo on crystal meth, so you are warned.
Good things on tap in the food department also.
Mrs. Otf’s Italian fam over sunday, I’m doing lamb chops on the Weber and goats cheese stuffed figs wrapped in proscuitto, while in the kitchen she will attend to the lasagne,and scungille,and all that stuff Irish guys cant spell but can eat heartily.
I would be interested in hearing what you lads are having in the holiday meal dept.
This is the first xmas I’ve had 4 days straight off, and I plan on enjoying it.
Best Holiday wishes to alla yuz and your loved ones.
I’ll be back with the xmas eve menu manana.

Old Thurm:

Christmas Eve always finds me at Joe’s Shanghai in Chinatown, slopping down shrinp soup dumplings and feasting on tender roast pork shoulder.

Frog… I have a brilliant recipe for boneless pork shoulder in the oven.
It seem to dry out on me on the grill.
I hate dried out pork. The only cuts I’m comfortable with grilling are babybacks and chops.

seems.. seams?

Frog… I have a brilliant recipe for boneless pork shoulder in the oven.

I’m confused, why would you store a brilliant recipe for pork shoulder in the oven?

that is putting all your stock in a single blog from a single reporter

Unlike most bloggers, Buster Olney actually has access to people in major league front offices.  Do you think that the Yankees’ thinking on limiting young pitchers’ innings is compartmentalized, so that a source could have knowledge of the plan for Chamberlain, but not Hughes?

If anything I think they should be MORE careful with hughes than joba given his injurious season

Despite his injuriousness, Hughes threw 110 innings last year, and 146 the year before.  His injuries did not involve his arm.  While I personally would be careful with him, I can see the argument that he was ready to go close to a full season in 2007, and should be able to throw more than Chamberlain in 2008.  If you don’t find the suggestion that the Yankees just might be looking to let Hughes and Kennedy start all season long interesting, fine.  But I do.

I would be interested in hearing what you lads are having in the holiday meal dept.

I always do the full Italian fish festival for Christmas Eve.  Does your better half keep that tradition?  It’s pretty awesome because there are so many variations on the theme that it never has to get old.  Sadly, won’t be able to entertain this year, since Mrs. MC is on call the 24th through the 26th.  So I’ll probably just throw together a nice zuppe di pesce on Monday afternoon and some kind of pasta for Tuesday.

SG, how useful are these? Considering you have one years worth of data at multiple levels to work with.

My immediate reaction is the reliever #s are way off but the starter projection looks pretty reasonable, if a bit on the negative side.

I would say they’re a shade more useful than random guessing, but probably not much more than that.  There’s heavy regression for anyone who’s only pitched one season.

Jonathon -

A 4.3 era and 175 ip seem reasonable from Cairo, especially if he pitches that much. I’m sort of worried about arm trouble or a 75 mph fastball out of ST, but if he stays healthy and a throws a tad harder he should be very effective. Last year was a DRASTIC decline over what other predictions had him pegged for, and his fip was still a reasonable 4.11.

Seems like the potential is there for a bounceback…are at least senseless optimism from me….are you sure he was tipping his Knucklecurve?

Frog -

I’m meeting some friends Joe’s Shanghai for christmas eve. Do you have to flip some gang signs to get a table that night? I was kind of hoping it’d be dead…

I had suggested, months ago here on RLYW, that Joba spend April and May, maybe part of June, in the bullpen, then move him into the rotation. Good move to keep his innings down.

The Celebration Ale ages very well. I have some bottles going back to 1998.

Of course the Blue Lable Chimay in the 750ml bottle ages wonderfully.