Replacing Melky in CF was the easiest way to upgrade the lineup and without Cameron I think we are not giving up much on defense. So I’ll be happy with that trade, although I think we need more lineup help. I still think we have to sign Dunn even if we can’t trade Matsui.

Repeat:

“Hmmm…I mean, on the one hand, if that trade is on the table, how can you pass it up?”

Because you’re not interested in trading Melky, no matter how his stock has fallen, for a player who’s older and not better by enough to be the solution at any position?

I’m still sad to seee Melky go, especially for a 1 yr deal for a 10 million dollar player.

This makes me concerned about Cano’s production for 2009. Wasn’t there some stat that we had floating around (maybe SG can dig it up when he gets back) that Cano’s production was inextricably tied to his pre-game sexual hot tub “ceremonies” with Melky? Cano’s going to try and put the moves on Cameron in spring training and probably get his teeth knocked in.

Do the Yankees now have to sign some free-agent journeyman “catcher”, just to keep Cano happy?

(crickets…)

Wait, I forgot - Cameron’s better than Griffey Jr.!

Now that CF is taken, & we can’t even think of upping the offense by putting Damon there & using other offensive pieces in LF, the team REALLY needs to get better in LF/RF/1B!  I think it’s much more imperative than it would be without this trade (which still, it appears, MIGHT not happen - I hope!)

.

Cameron was 12 runs better than a league average CF in 2008 (over 508 AB/120 games).  Marcel projects him next year to be around 5 runs better than a league average CF.

SG had Gardner projecting to hit at replacement level this coming season.

So Cameron could very well be a 25 run upgrade over Gardner at the plate.

By UZR Cameron was 13 runs better than a league average defensive CF.  That was 3rd best in baseball.  By PMR Cameron was -3 runs (the correlation for CF between UZR and PMR isn’t very good - only .5).  Let’s assume he’s somewhere in between - call him +5 defensively.

So defensively Gardner may pick up a few runs on Cameron.  But the difference at the plate is very large.

Cameron looks to be a 20-25 run pick up compared to Gardner.  It’s not a bad deal when you can trade Melky and a second tier pitching prospect and pick up 2.5 WAR and do it for $10M.  That’s a very good deal.

I’ll miss the Melkman.

Someone put Cano on suicide watch.

I think you are forgeting the fact that Cameron will be a FA in 2010 and there are many chances that he will be a type A FA, so he could net us 2 draft picks that are more valuable than Melky Cabrera.

I think you are forgeting the fact that Cameron will be a FA in 2010…so he could net us 2 draft picks…

So we thought about Abreu.

Brewers Blog says Bill Hall might be a part of this, with Yanks presumably adding something (IPK had been discussed between the 2 teams previously).  Not a bad all-purpose utility guy, but dreadful against righties last year and he’s owed $8.4m in 2010.

FWIW, Hall and Cameron are apparently CC’s homeys.

I like the trade.  Anything that keeps Damon out of CF is fine with me…

So, we’re looking at this right now (this is just a guess on order ):

LF Damon
SS Jeter
DH Matsui
3B ARod
RF Nady
C   Posada
1B Swisher
2B Cano
CF Cameron

Doesn’t Hall have something like $20M left on his contract?  That would be a flat-out terrible deal.  Plus, I think it was floated somewhere that Hall wants to be a starter, not a utility guy.  Just sign Punto and call it a day.

If CC gets one homey, that’s plenty.  Maybe Cano will become homey #2, now that he’s (apparently) BFF-less.

If we’re repeating….

As for Cameron, here’s SG on the topic awhile back:

  His ZR runs saved/162 over the last three years:

  2006: +5
  2007: -1
  2008: 4

  His 2009 projection is +2, which is around 5 runs worse than Melky.  Offensively, he projects to hit about .255/.336/.474 as a Yankee, which is around 24 runs better than Melky or Gardner over a full season.

  So he’s probably a 1.5-2 win upgrade over what the Yankees currently have in line to send out to CF.  He’s probably worth around $12M to the Yankees on a one year deal.

  Of course, his contract calls for $10M, so they shouldn’t give up much more than $2M worth of assets to get him.

Now is Melky worth more than $2 million?

D’oh - from “here’s SG on the topic awhile back:” to my comment about Melky is all SG.

I don’t like Hall. I rather sign Punto and keep Kennedy.

Man, if Nady is A-Rod’s protection, well, I think the Yanks have to improve on that.

Man, if Nady is A-Rod’s protection, well, I think the Yanks have to improve on that.

Sign Tex!

Sign Tex!

Sign Tex!

Gotta love ESPN running as one of their top headlines a quote that Clemens has no chance at the Hall of Fame.

What awesome source do they have for this?

Is it Joe Morgan?

Nolan Ryan?

Tom Seaver?

Why, it’s Brian McNamee, the guy Clemens is suing for defamation!

Wow, if HE doesn’t think Clemens will make the Hall, who would?!?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3761996

Doesn’t Hall have something like $20M left on his contract?

Not quite.  6.8M, 8.4M, 9.25M option/0.5M buyout.

Didn’t I hear that a lot of folks in Milwaukee attribute his collapse at the plate to all the position switching?  Maybe all-around utility guy isn’t his best job description.

Getting Cameron for Cabrera would be a pretty nifty move IMO.  Giving up anything for Hall, not so much.

Yeah, involving Hall and Kennedy, hell, just involving Hall period, would turn this deal ugly all of a sudden.

Posada will be batting fifth behind A-Rod, and Swisher may eventually become the #3 guy.

I rather have Dunn that Teix right now. The only thing that scares me is that Teix might end as a Red Sox.

Brewers Blog says Bill Hall might be a part of this,

Two years ago Bill Hall looked like a potentially great player.  Now he looks like just another guy.  The drop off looks sort of mysterious.  I haven’t heard anything about why.  Has anyone?  Is a return to his 2006 form still possible?

No matter what it takes, RAISE TICKET PRICES ANOTHER $5 each in the worst economy of our lifetimes BUT DO NOT LET TEX go to the Red Sox. With the pitching we now have and the protection AROD needs, this guy is PRICELESS. MUST HATE TEX.

The drop off looks sort of mysterious.

Psssst.  It might be something that starts with “S” and rhymes with “Polaroids.”

MUST HATE TEX.

Wow, you feel pretty strongly about this, don’t you…

“rhymes with “Polaroids.””

You, YM, are clearly a biologist.

Psssst.  It might be something that starts with “S” and rhymes with “Polaroids.”

In the absence of any other evidence, that seems like an obvious assertion.  Are we the only one making it?

(NB: said with all due respect & (appropriate) affection)

MUST HAVE HIM TOO DAMNIT :D

very strongly ya. i always thought he would be perfect for us after donnie baseball and then tino - giambi was a waste of life in the grand scheme for us. tex will bring what we need in the meat of the order. if he goes to the sox i will not believe it.

“Must hate”

So Tex SHOULD go to RS?

no was a typo….tex already turned down the sox. with boras, you KNOW HE WILL come HERE and get $200,000,000 for 10.

Now is Melky worth more than $2 million?

that depends.  is he eligible for arbitration this year? 

if so, he is probably not worth $2M.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/lee_jenkins/12/03/teixeira.boras/1.html

DAD PLAYED BALL WITH BUCKY DENT - NO WAY HE GOES TO THE SOX

Teixeira still funds the Nick Liberatore scholarship program at Mount St. Joseph. His mother, Margy, is now cancer free. His father, John, a former Navy pilot who played high school baseball with Bucky Dent, is healthy too, after he was discovered to have a brain tumor six years ago. Even though the tumor was benign, he lost hearing in his left ear. Boras and Fitzpatrick, two of Teixeira’s closest confidantes, believe those brushes with death helped shape Mark’s personality. He had to be the one standing perfectly upright while friends and family were being laid low around him.

Boras has warned Teixeira that his career will change drastically the moment he signs his next contract, no matter what team he signs with. He will be scrutinized as never before. Boras likes to say that Teixeira has been hidden, but once a player makes nearly $200 million, it is impossible to hide any longer. Some players need help preparing for their close-up, airbrushing their image for public consumption. But Teixeira requires no such handling. He has kept his back straight and shirt tucked for this very moment.

I’m sad to see Melky go, but I’m fine with Melky for Cameron. 

They absolutely should still go after Tex.  He’s exactly the sort of FA they should pursue (whereas, for instance, AJ Burnett is exactly the type they should avoid).

Ideally, IMO:

Rotation:

CC
Wang
Pettitte (if he comes to his senses)
Joba
Hughes/Aceves/Giese/IPK/et al.

Lineup:

Damon, LF (L)
Jeter, SS (R)
Tex, 1B (S)
ARod, 3B (R)
Posada, C (S)
Matsui, DH (L)
Nady/Swisher, RF (R/L)
Cano, 2B (L)
Cameron, CF (R)

When Posada doesn’t catch, BUC bats 9th, with everyone sliding up a spot.  Posada maybe DHs and Matsui sits, depending on health/effectiveness.  I’m missing a UIF here, but that’s pretty minor.

Bullpen:

Closer - Mo
Setup/other - Edwar, Veras, Robertson, Bruney
Lefty maybe more than one out guy - Marte
Longman - Giese/Aceves

With others (Coke, Britton, etc.) available to be thrown against the wall in hopes of stickage.

“tex already turned down the sox”

???

Incidentally, I don’t think many here hate the RS.  Strangely - but I think it’s common - I kind of like them.  I just like them in 2nd place.  Even kind of like many RS players (not Peder, but I wouldn’t like him on another team, either). Granted, they’re not as ‘mythic’ as they were before 2004 (to me, I’m not suggesting that RS fans should regret 2004), but it’s still more fun to be ahead of the RS than a meaningless team (TB Divils, etc.).

Cameron sucks!  A total waste of money.  There are better options out there.

tex already turned down the red sox in college:

Boras and Teixeira first met when Teixeira was a senior at Mount St. Joseph, an all-boys Catholic school where the students wear Oxford shirts and ties. Teixeira’s high school coach, Dave Norton, wanted him to sign with Ron Shapiro, a Baltimore-based agent who had represented Orioles legends Cal Ripken Jr., Brooks Robinson and Eddie Murray. But Shapiro showed up late to his first meeting with Teixeira, and as Norton says, “that did not sit real well with Mark.”

Teixeira instead signed with Boras and was projected as a first-round pick in the 1998 draft. But when the Red Sox asked him beforehand if he would accept a $1.5 million signing bonus, Teixeira thought he could do better. He tumbled all the way to the ninth round, where Boston finally grabbed him. “The Red Sox told everybody that I wouldn’t sign, and when it got to a late enough round they said, ‘Let’s take a flier on him,’” Teixeira told Baseball America in 2006. “So they spoiled me for everyone else.” Dan Duquette, then the Red Sox general manager, says it was common knowledge that Teixeira would be difficult to sign. “That’s why he went in the ninth round,” Duquette says.

The Red Sox still offered Teixeira $1.5 million, but Boras advised his client to go to college instead, take some time to mature, get an education, maybe even meet the girl of his dreams. Ever the ideal client, Teixeira turned down the money—“It was the most I had ever heard of a high school player turning down,” says Georgia Tech coach Danny Hall—and he met an industrial-design major named Leigh Williams at a party his freshman year. Today Teixeira and Leigh are married with two children, Jack Gordan, who is 2, and Addison Leigh, 1.

Teixeira does not like to revisit what went wrong with the Red Sox, lest he alienate a potential suitor. But the experience clearly bound him to Boras and made him somewhat jaded about the business of baseball. He turned down a contract extension from the Braves last spring even though he had gone to college in Atlanta, his wife grew up there and part of him wanted to spend the rest of his career in the city. Teixeira was so popular there that two Auburn students, Tyler Crawford and Andrew Hall, recorded a song in his honor. One verse goes: A side effect is mild hysteria/The medical reason is Mark Teixeira.

There are better options out there.

name them.

and Cameron absolutely doesn’t suck.

You, YM, are clearly a biologist.

(NB: said with all due respect & (appropriate) affection)

Well, yeah, I don’t pretend otherwise.  Polaroids was the first thing that came to mind, really

Rotoworld:

The Yankees have jumped back into the running for free agent Mark Teixeira, according to SI.com’s Jon Heyman.

The Yankees won’t let the Red Sox scoop up a big time free agent without a fight. With the Yanks now in the mix, Teixeira’s price could hit the $200 million mark. The Orioles and Nationals are also heavily involved in negotiations. The Angels might also make an effort to bring him back.

FWIW, which is probably not much.

In all fairness, it’s not an easy rhyme.

(Steels self for the coming assault)

Farnsworth to the Royals for $9.25M/2.

kindof makes the Marte deal look brilliant (which it’s not, i’d call it “OK”)

There are better options out there.

name them.

Milton Bradley

yup, PLEASE let that be true!
Of course, they’ll selectively block NYY from participating in FA forever if it works out.  (Unless they can chalk it up to New Stadium Money…)

Bradley would be a vastly better pick-up.

Bradley would be a vastly better pick-up.

Except that he’s probably not physically capable of playing CF on a regular basis anymore.

Is that true?

i can hear our bleacher creatures now AROD AROD AROD….JETER JETER JETER….CANOOOO CANOOO CANOOOOO, TEXSHSSSHHH, TEXHSHSSHS, TEXSHSHSSHSH

is he eligible for arbitration this year?

I’m hearing that he’s not eligible until next year.  Didn’t quite make the super-two cut.

if so, he is probably not worth $2M.

I posted this on the other thread before realizing it was posted here, and won’t redo the whole thing.  SG posted last month that Melky is worth around 1.3 WAR.  I read an article yesterday (don’t remember where) that this year teams are spending I think $4.4M on FA for a marginal win.  Which would make Melky worth $5.72M - his contract for this year.  So in a strict sense, yes he is (probably) worth more than $2M.  However, he and Garnder are pretty repetitive, and Gardner will be cheaper for a few years, and probably better suited as a 4th OF, which reduces Melky’s utility cost to the Yankees.  So…probably too close to call.  If it is just Melky for Cameron straight-up, I’ll be sad to see Melky go (and crossing my fingers the light-bulb doesn’t go on), but it is a good trade.

Milton Bradley

Sure, if you assume he can handle CF every day, will take a contract for an AAV of $10M or less, and won’t get suspended for attacking George King III (which may not be a bad thing).  Not to mention if you want him for a 3-4 year deal.

Farnsworth to the Royals for $9.25M/2.

kindof makes the Marte deal look brilliant (which it’s not, i’d call it “OK”)

I saw that too, and had the same type of thought.

Milton Bradley

Wuh?  You joking?  To play CF?  Not to mention the head-case factor.  And this would be a multi-year commitment presumably…

Both Cody Ross and Ryan Spilborghs are better options the the sucky Cameron!

TEXSHSSSHHH, TEXHSHSSHS, TEXSHSHSSHSH

Tei-xei-ra, Tei-xei-ra!

Come on, I have great faith in the chanting abilities of the Bleacher Creatures, don’t you?

Which would make Melky worth $5.72M - his contract for this

The “-” is a minus-sign.

Tei-xei-ra, Tei-xei-ra!

Come on, I have great faith in the chanting abilities of the Bleacher Creatures, don’t you?

Mark-Teix-eir-a (not sure where the inflections are)! [clap, clap, clap-clap-clap] Mark-Teix-eir-a!

There you go.

Milton Bradley in CF will make you pine for late career Bernie Williams.

The Yankees have jumped back into the running for free agent Mark Teixeira, according to SI.com’s Jon Heyman.

The Yankees won’t let the Red Sox scoop up a big time free agent without a fight. With the Yanks now in the mix, Teixeira’s price could hit the $200 million mark. The Orioles and Nationals are also heavily involved in negotiations. The Angels might also make an effort to bring him back.

FWIW, which is probably not much.

I think this is pretty much the answer to SSF’s question from the other day, no?

Cody Ross and Ryan Spilborghs are better options

Depends on what it would take to get them, doesn’t it?

Both Cody Ross and Ryan Spilborghs are better options the the sucky Cameron!

so is Curtis Granderson.

are they available?  what would they cost in return?

could either of them be had for the bargain basement price of Melky Cabrera? 

i mean, i can just name players who are currently the property of other teams too. 

also, Milton Bradley is absolutely not an option for CF.  if they could dump Matsui and get Bradley to DH and play an occasional LF, sure.  that would be awesome.  but he can’t play a full season in CF.

I hate Mike Lupica

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/12/10/2008-12-10_pound_for_pound_cc_sabathia_weighs_in_se.html

Sure, the Yanks paid a lot. But it was obviously wiser for the Yanks to get Sabs for money than to have traded Hughes, Melky and Kennedy for Santana and then still have had to pay Santana a fortune. That’s especially true now that they have traded Melky for a CF who can hit. What a dunce.

Mike, thanks for the info.  i guess i am hesitant to believe that Melky is worth 1.4 WAR.  he certainly wasn’t that good last year.  i think he is still trading on that 2006 OBP, which is starting to look more like a fluke.

What a dunce.

This comes to you as a shock?

since 2005, Bradley has played 15 games in CF.

i am hesitant to believe that Melky is worth 1.4 WAR

Yeah, looks like a RL hitter and a +5 defender to me.  And that’s not based on his 2008 OPS+, either.

I hear that Carlos Beltran can play a pretty decent CF.  He’s available, right?

LOL @ pronunciation - LETS CLOSE THIS UPPPPP!!!!!

I hear that Carlos Beltran can play a pretty decent CF.  He’s available, right?

Nah, let’s just get Grade Sizemore.

*Grady.

D’oh.

So Sherman says that the quality of the pitching prospect would depend on whether the Brewers pay some of Hall’s contract.  Personally, I’d rather give them the full salary relief than give them a decent prospect.

Perhaps pitching prospect = Kei Igawa?  Haha, one can dream…

LOL @ pronunciation smile - LETS CLOSE THIS UPPPPP!!!!!

Dude, you had way too much coffee this morning.

So Sherman says that the quality of the pitching prospect would depend on whether the Brewers pay some of Hall’s contract.  Personally, I’d rather give them the full salary relief than give them a decent prospect.

Or not take Hall at all? Is that an option?

I think by Hall, he meant Cameron.

...and scratch that comma.  Man, *I* need coffee…

I mean, if money is really not a problem, then I suppose Bill Hall is a great utility infielder/backup outfielder.

But man, I wouldn’t want to surrender any sort of quality pitcher, ESPECIALLY someone like Kennedy for Bill freakin’ Hall!

IPK is being seriously, phantasmagorically undervalued if this is true.

Cameron blows! and now they are signing him for an additional year lmfao!  Spilborghs regardless of the cost is a far better player who is under team control for 4 more seasons.

i actually do not drink coffee, just a die hard since birth. want to get tex for a long time as his idol was donnie baseball and dad played w bucky dent. sure he will make a fortune, but we as yankee fans want and pay for the best team possible. tex should be on that squad.

all the “reports” say it wouldn’t be Kennedy.  but who knows.

Spilborghs regardless of the cost is a far better player who is under team control for 4 more seasons.

ok.

I think by Hall, he meant Cameron.

No I meant Hall.  The Brewers apparently want to expand the deal to Cameron + Hall for Melky + pitcher.  If they kick in money, they want a good pitching prospect.  If I have to take Hall, I’d rather pay him and give up a token pitching suspect.

I’d rather not take Hall, not pay him, and not give up a pitcher.  But that’s just me.

Is the Hall piece a deal-breaker?  That is, are Brewers walking away from the CF 1-for-1 swap?

ok.

Maybe you’re being sarcastically dismissive, but no, it’s not OK.  Would anyone really rather have Spilborghs regardless of the cost?  Would you trade Cano and Hughes for Ryan Freakin’ Spilborghs?  And kick in part of Robbie’s contract, too?

I think it’s perfectly reasonable to ask dan what he’d be willing to give up for a player he likes.

Man, Pete Abe needs to get out of bed earlier and get a post up, otherwise, these people are going to keep migrating over here.

Exhibit A:

Cameron blows! and now they are signing him for an additional year lmfao!  Spilborghs regardless of the cost is a far better player who is under team control for 4 more seasons.

Exhibit B:
i actually do not drink coffee, just a die hard since birth. want to get tex for a long time as his idol was donnie baseball and dad played w bucky dent. sure he will make a fortune, but we as yankee fans want and pay for the best team possible. tex should be on that squad.

also, Milton Bradley is absolutely not an option for CF.  if they could dump Matsui and get Bradley to DH and play an occasional LF, sure.  that would be awesome.  but he can’t play a full season in CF

I disagree, but he wouldn’t have to play every day anyways.  They would have Swisher and Gardner or Cabrera.  His career UZR/150 in CF is 5.9 (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=369&position=OF#fielding).  I know realize after your other post that he hasn’t played much their recently, but his defense at the corners doesn’t seemed to have suffered in recent years.  I don’t know how you could say something so strong as “absolutely not” an option.

If Hall is a deal-breaker, I insist upon him.

Jayson Stark says Yanks would still pursue Lowe even if they sign Burnett.

Now that’s just batshit crazy.

Like ‘guano nuts?’

Following up re Bradley:  You have tempered my thoughts somewhat on him, though.  I’ll admit it’s not as tempting as I though.  He still may be a better option than Cameron, though.  But I do think Melky for Cameron is a positive trade.  Sign Dunn for 1B (I’m assuming they aren’t going to go after Tex), and the offense is set.

Are Dunn’s pitches-seen/AB as bad as his SO rates might suggest?

Maybe you’re being sarcastically dismissive, but no, it’s not OK.

yes, i was being sarcastic.  i didn’t really know how to respond to a situation that says “regardless of cost”.

Jayson Stark says Yanks would still pursue Lowe even if they sign Burnett.

Ok, now *this* is what I don’t understand.

They can’t afford Teixiera, but they can afford Burnett, Lowe, Cameron and Pettitte? Let’s do some quick math.

AAV:
Teixiera - $20M
Burnett, Lowe, Cameron, Pettitte - $18M +$16.5M + $10M + $10M = $54.5M

Total value -
Teixiera - Let’s say 8 years get’s it done, so $160M
Burnett, Lowe, Cameron, Pettitte - $176M

Now I guess Teixiera is 8 player-years and Burnett/Lowe/Cameron/Pettite would be 11-player years… but, well, I don’t know.. I just don’t get it.

Now that’s just batshit crazy.

agreed.

but on the other hand, how much false information have we had this week.  i’d say “tons”. 

last night we were apparently inches from Burnett at $90M/5…

so strong as “absolutely not” an option

If I had, and could bet, $100,000 on Milton Bradley never playing a full seasons in CF for the rest of eternity, I would.

From MLBTR:
<blockquote>10:23am: According to WEEI’s Lou Merloni, the Yankees’ signing of C.C. Sabathia made the team more appealing to Lowe.<blockquote>

I wonder if THAT is where all the Lowe-to-Yanks nonsense is coming from.  Mr Boras is up to his old tricks.

Well, one thing you have to look is WAR for that smorgasbord of players versus Teixeria.  And then also that you have a lot of resources tied to one player, so the chance of a catastrophic loss of value is greatly increased.  The other plan gets you “diversification of risk”. 

That being said, I agree with you.  I don’t get it.

Teixiera - Let’s say 8 years get’s it done, so $160M

Why would you say that gets it done when it’s already been offered and there are at least four other teams bidding on him?

Are Dunn’s pitches-seen/AB as bad as his SO rates might suggest?

They’re actually quite good.

4.17 pitchers per at bat (which is roughly his career average, as well).

A-Rod was 3.80 pitches.

Abreu and Giambi, of course, kicked ass at that stat, with Abreu at 4.38 and Giambi at 4.30