Any chance anyone in the organization can teach him how to throw a changeup, or any third pitch?  pretty please?  it would make visions of sugarplums (and 250 strikeout seasons) dance in my head…

i’ve been worried that Hughes might be the odd man out…but I doubt the yankees would be dumb enough to sell low on him.  I dont’ know if there are some weird rules about trading arb guys, but do you think Wang would be on the market?  but for his freak injury last year, he definitely seems to be on the “sell high” end of the spectrum. 

CC, AJ, Wang, Pettite, Joba   [Hughes]  seems crowded.  and i’m already fearing the MSM’s attention on putting Joba back in the pen.  shudder.

Statistically, I see a pattern forming from the dots.  It suggests that the team is going to sign every important free agent on the market.  Strangely, they could do that without exceeding last year’s salary, or not by too much.

At least it’s comforting to know no one learned any sort of lesson whatsoever to signing an oft-injured ex-Marlin to a longish deal.

kronic- you’re forgetting the 20 starts Hughes will get when Burnett hits the DL in May.

Wombat- I think the odds of getting Tex are now a bajillion to one.

On the other hand, CC, Burnett and Joba will provide plenty of strikeouts - which will mitigate the team’s defensive shortcomings.  When is the last time the Yanks rotation included three big time strikeout pitchers?  As for the rotation being crowded, injuries and Joba’s innings limit will ensure that Hughes gets at least 10-15 starts next season.

And by the way, John Sterling is going to sigh in ecstasy when he hears about this signing.  He sung Burnett’s praises like nobody’s business all last season.

yankz - it was joke.  You’re familiar with “How to Lie with Statistics” (or, in this case, How to Lie Really Obviously with Statistics)?

I actually read that book last week. No joke.

There you go!

Well, you could define “important” as CC, Burnett, and Tex, and it would work, right?

now that the mets/wilpon are broke, maybe we can get johan at 50 cents to the dollar.

Or just CC and Burnett. OK I’m done.

This is comforting (jacked from the LoHud comments):

Matt (Yardley, PA): Burnett to me is Pavano ver2.0.

Keith Law: Not even close. Pavano in the NL in his only two healthy years, right before signing with the Yanks: 423 IP, 272 K’s, 35 HR allowed. That’s in a big ballpark, facing opposing pitchers to boost his K total. Burnett, in the AL East, in a slight hitters’ park, last two years: 387 IP, 407 Ks, 42 HR. You can’t make a performance argument that he’s like Pavano. You can’t make a health argument that he’s like Pavano (who was hurt in some part of every year until his sixth season). You definitely can’t make a stuff argument that he’s like Pavano. That’s a completely unfair tag to place on Burnett.

That’s exactly the point I was making at the end of the previous thread.

This is a funny game:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200105120.shtml

Overpaying Burnett to be your #3/4 starter is not a bad move, I don’t think.

Especially if it means the Yanks are out of the Lowe bidding.

That said, yeah, I’d prefer Tex, but who knows what it will take to even GET Tex?

$16.5 million for a 37 year old Burnett doesn’t even sound that exorbitant, really.

And again, this is for this guy to be at the BACK of the rotation - he might be a bit out of place at the front end of a rotation, but there’s no doubt that the guy is now one of the best #3/4 pitchers out there, and gives the Yankees a pretty damn sweet rotation (provided they sign one more pitcher, a la Pettitte - but even if they don’t, it’ll still be good).

By the by, regarding Phil Hughes’ progress being blocked - doesn’t Joba having an innings cap? So can’t Hughes just take those missing innings? And if he does well, he takes over from the veteran spot in the rotation (hopefully Pettitte) in 2010. Maybe not ideal for Hughes, but not bad for the Yankees.

In addition, as others have mentioned - depth in the starting rotation almost ALWAYS comes in handy.

Toronto should issue a press release - “Hey, we signed a former hard-throwin’ Marlin!”

Good luck, Matt Clement!

Now all we have to do is get Reed Johnson and we’ll have both the Ugly Former Blue Jays With Terrible Facial Hair.

Image reduced to link for the benefit of RLYW readers.

Wow, did not know that would post the image and not the URL. Sorry everyone!

Yeah.  Comparing Burnett with Pavano isn’t fair.

The approach the Yankees are taking is certainly aggressive.  I don’t know if it’s how I’d go about it, but it doesn’t feel like they’re done, so who knows what the team will wind up looking like.

The approach the Yankees are taking is certainly aggressive.  I don’t know if it’s how I’d go about it, but it doesn’t feel like they’re done, so who knows what the team will wind up looking like.

That’s great that the Yankees are stockpiling pitchers.  It’s certainly going to be an interesting season, basically Alex being the main guy and the focus for the offense.  Good thing he handles pressure well, and will surely put up a monster season.

Would it be illegal to givethe Angels some money to sign Texeira if th NYY aren’t going to?  Or, better yet - the Nats?

Picture is disturbing. Getting Hughes innings is the last thing I am worried about this season. I think he belongs starting the season in AAA, get some confidence and bring him up when (the inevitable) injury occurs. What are Wang and Jobas contract status?

I suppose you could trade a scrub and $10m for another scrub (assuming you had a mole in the commissioner’s office).

Wang will be offered a contract, Joba I’m pretty sure will make the minimum. Maybe a slight raise.

“Good thing he handles pressure well, and will surely put up a monster season.”

I sense the sarcasm but lets not forget 2009 is an odd number and we know Alex likes his odd numbers.

When is Burnett’s opt out?

Pete: You could dump cash on them if you got something in return, and the commish didn’t sniff it out. My first reaction was that it’d be illegal, but only if you weren’t clever about it.

Otherwise… congrats. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t getting a tad nervous about this. Usually the ALCS is the real world series, but in ‘09 it might just be the AL East crown.

Yeah, you can argue whether this is a wise move or not, but from an opposing team’s standpoint, you know that the 2009 Yankee rotation now looks absolutely stunning, and they probably have their best pitching staff, in toto, since - wow, I dunno - I guess 1998 maybe even - at the very least, 2003.

The upside in this rotation is ridiculous. I am pretty happy about this signing. Who knows what $16M is going to buy in 2013

The last time the Yankees had, as a staff, an ERA+ above 110 was, not so coincidentally, the last year they made the World Series, 2003.

1996 - 108
1997 - 117
1998 - 116
1999 - 114
2000 - 101
2001 - 111
2002 - 114
2003 - 115

Already, due to the good bullpen, the Yankees’ pitching LAST year was 104.

Next year should be interesting.

When I needed a quick laugh while studying for finals, I would go to nomaas and look at the picture of “CC Partying in the Bronx”

Why did we non tender Britton? With him Joba and CC we would have the best defensive line in the league.

Poor Britton - he has had some rough luck.

I wish him the best in his next port, which will almost certainly be a contender.

From the opposing team’s POV, the fact that the back end of this contract might be problematic down the road isn’t going to help us much in 2009.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking, SSF.

And again, when the Yankees just got done paying Pavano $10 mil a year, $16.5 million in 2013 doesn’t sound so bad even if those back years are not good ones for Burnett.

that 10 million to Andy becomes a lot less insulting when it’s tied to “or else we’ll just go with Hughes in the rotation.  no biggie”

Burnett’s contract could include a clause for limousine service for his wife, Karen, who does not care to fly and would need transportation to New York from Maryland. The Blue Jays provided such a perk in Burnett’s last deal, a five-year, $55 million pact inked in December 2005.

I guess I don’t blame the Yankees for going this route. The tradeoff isn’t really the dollars, but rather the kids in the pipeline (including almost ML-ready guys like Hughes and Kennedy) and the draft picks versus five years of a proven, if not so durable, veteran taking a roster spot. Ideally you might prefer to hold on to the picks and not close the door on the kids, but how many really decent FA pitchers would take a 1-2 year deal? Signing Burnett and Sabathia is the lower-risk play, and working Hughes into the rotation is tomorrow’s problem.

and if IPK and Hughes force themselves into the rotation by being good, in a couple of year AJ could be a way overpaid replacement for Mo.

This was the year to dominate the top of the FA market.  NYY should always be a player; any team with a new stadium coming up is expected to be much more of a player than usual; any team with a ton of salary coming of the books might be expected to be a much bigger player than usual. The convergence of these things makes the spree pretty much the norm for the overall situation.

This was the offseason I hoped for when I was biting my nails over not getting Johan last year. 

Dunn would be the icing.

But kf - Mariano is the reaso the team won all those championships!  And he’s the reason they would have won them in the years since then during which they didn’t win them, too!

in a couple of year AJ could be a way overpaid replacement for Mo.

Actually, that’s just crazy enough to work.

& then - dare I say it? - ... Joba could pitch the eighth!

Hehe…can you imagine how much the NY papers would hate Dunn?

Good grief, every time I reload the page, that picture of Reed Johnson with a small dead animal stuck to his chin pops up.

Urgh. Thanks a LOT, yankz.

The pie chart possibilities created this week seem limitless…....

YM - how can you tell it’s dead?

No live animal could possibly stay on that face voluntarily.

Also, thanks to Jonathan or whoever the kind soul was that changed pic to link.

...and f*** the NY Rangers.

—-The pie chart possibilities created this week seem limitless…....—-

CC said something very similar right before he agreed to play in NY.

...and f*** the NY Rangers.

Ah, you saw that game too.  I turned it on 30 seconds after the Rangers scored their 4th goal.  Was clapping excitedly when Callahan scored…and then what?  Bobby Abreu could have played better defense than they did.

Hehe…can you imagine how much the NY papers would hate Dunn?

You know another option - purely for DH - would be Burrell.  I’ve given up on playing him in LF.  His UZR fell off the cliff, and I trust that much more than the Fielding Bible saying he sucked. 

In a vacuum I’d take Dunn over Burrell.  Of course, in a vacuum I’d also be dead in seconds, so it wouldn’t do me much good.  Just saying an option if he comes with a cheap, short-term contract, and Dunn has no interest in playing in NY.

Oh, but you misunderstand.  I’m a Devils fan

Oh, but you misunderstand.  I’m a Devils fan

Don’t make me put that Reed Johnson pic back up.

Any chance anyone in the organization can teach him how to throw a changeup, or any third pitch?

I meant to respond to this when you mentioned it in another thread a few days ago.  What is with the third pitch obsession?  Guys like Sabathia, who throws similar numbers of sliders and changeups, are by far the exception rather than the rule.  Most successful major league pitchers rely heavily, if not almost exclusively, on one off-speed pitch, whether it is a slider, a curve, a changeup, or even a split.

According to fangraphs, Burnett does throw a changeup, about 5% of the time.  He used to throw it more often.  By way of interesting coincidence, Ben Sheets also throws about 5% changeups.  When your fastball and curve are as good as these guys’, your third pitch doesn’t need to be anything more than a “show me” something or other.  If you have that heater and that hook, why on earth would you ever want to get beat on your third best pitch?

MC - has that kind of data been run for great pitcher-years over a significant period of time to see whether they are in any way associated with number of pitches used with a given frequency?  To see if those stats differ from the norm?

I’m a Devils fan too.  What a great game, especially the two shorthanded goals! 

By the way, I totally agree with MC regarding the “third pitch” obsession.  The same sorts of things were being bandied about regarding Joba, as if excellent command of an upper 90s fastball and nasty slider were not enough to put hitters away on a regular basis.

It’s not a dead animal, it’s a Dirty Sanchez gone wrong.

Yeah, but then Joba added the curve, because he can. And isn’t there a changeup somewhere?

Mo would add a 2nd pitch, but the league won’t let him.

Wombat,

I’m not sure what you’re looking for.  There are different kinds of pitchers.  Sheets and Burnett are classic stuff guys—hard fastball, knee-buckling curve ball pitchers who really don’t go to a third pitch except to waste one.  Sandy Koufax didn’t use a third or fourth pitch very often.  He was having too much fun telling Johnny Roseboro to let the hitter know that he was going to throw a curve and watching them miss it anyway.  Johan Santana throws about 90% fastballs and changeups.  When the top two are that good, they’re usually enough.  Adding a third pitch isn’t going to help you much if it’s a significant cut below the other two in quality.

Of course, there are also exceptional pitchers who have a more diverse arsenal (like Sabathia) who have two secondary pitches that are equally effective and used about as often.  Sure that makes them better, but that’s because the two secondary pitches are both exceptional.  If one of them was mediocre, he wouldn’t throw it as often.  Josh Beckett throws four pitches, but he’s 90% fastball/curve.

So what sort of study do you want?

Commanding two good pitches is more important than a third or fourth pitch.  If Joba puts a 97 mph fastball on the inside corner at the knees followed by one on the outside corner at the knees and then an eye high heater swing through for strike three - he is technically using only one pitch but putting it where he wants each time and the hitter is basically helpless.  Also, we’ve all seen those at bats where he throws nothing but sliders and hitters can do nothing with them.

Mo would add a 2nd pitch, but the league won’t let him.

The idea that Rivera is a one pitch pitcher is as big a myth as the one about needing three or four pitches to be a successful starter.  First of all, he throws a straight four seamer more than occaisionally.  Second, his cutter is almost two or three different pitches by itself.  And he’s thrown a changeup in spring training for the past few years.  One of these days, he’s going to break that out in games that count.  But not until he needs it, which will probably be sometime around 2019.

Mo would add a 2nd pitch, but the league won’t let him.

Mo threw a curve once but it nearly caused a rift in the space-time continuum.

MC- I know. I would bet that everyone here knows. It was mostly a joke. Relax.

Scott Proctor was non tendered by the Dodgers.

We could always use another arm in the bullpen.

It was mostly a joke

Yeah, OK, but am I the only one who goes ballistic every time he hears some announcer say, “The amazing thing is that he’s done this all these years throwing just one pitch!”  Maybe everybody here knows, but apparently there are a helluva lot of people out there who don’t.  And it’s annoying as hell.

Thank you.  I feel better now.

What a great game, especially the two shorthanded goals!

Shut up. I couldn’t watch because incompetent morons at RCN still haven’t sent me the digital converter box.  Meh.

MC- breathe. Come on, they say dumber stuff than that all the time.

I really hope the Yanks don’t go after Willy Taveras.

We could always use another arm in the bullpen.

Does Proctor still have one?

Other than a mention on this site, is there anything to suggest that there’s any thought of going after Taveras?

Does Proctor still have one?

Therein lies the catch, hmm?  Perhaps he’s been practicing with his left arm?

Come on, yankz.  A Taveras/Gardner platoon would steal like a billion bases.  That would be some kind of record, right?

They’d definitely set the record for stealing first base.

I really hope the Yanks don’t go after Willy Taveras.

With all of the strikeout and groundball pitchers, whats the point of having a good defensive centerfielder?

How is Taveras’ defense? It bugs me when fast guys are not good outfielders.

“With all of the strikeout and groundball pitchers, whats the point of having a good defensive centerfielder?”

Given that the team, as presently constructed, is going to be a lot better at preventing runs than in scoring them, it would be good to maximize minimization of runs scored against us.

Of course, if we get an outfielder who can make a really significant contribution to run scoring, that could change.

Well, all right, if you take that literally, then it couldn’t change - it’s always good do that.

Wow. I made a rare venture over to the new Bronx Banter, and someone should call suicide watch.

How is Taveras’ defense?

He’s got a reputation as an extremely good defender in CF.

it would be good to maximize minimization of runs scored against us

I feel like the AFLAC duck in the commercial with Yogi.

How is Taveras’ defense?

With Taveras in left and Gardner in right, we could just skip centerfield and play five infielders.

My bigger problem is with his sub-Melky 56 OPS+.

Though I concede that’s not a fair measure of his value given his speed.

With Taveras in left and Gardner in right, we could just skip centerfield and play five infielders.

The fifth infielder could cover the space to Jeter’s left, but he better be a good hitter because you’d have a seven man lineup followed by two outs.

Yeah, but think how much faster the game will be if you spot the other team ~8 outs!

When your fastball and curve are as good as these guys’, your third pitch doesn’t need to be anything more than a “show me” something or other.

Of course, he’s only had one full season with an ERA+ better than 120 (122 in 2002).  So maybe that “3rd pitch” would help after all?  Of course, one of his big problems is a few too many walks.  Then the question is, why is that?  Is he really having problems putting people away so that they’re able to work the count to ball 4?  Seems unlikely; though if that’s it then maybe a third-pitch would be useful.  Does he just go through batters where he can’t throw strikes?  Then the third pitch may be one he can just get over for a strike; usually for pitchers, that’s either a fastball or a curve, so I’m not sure where else he would go with that.

I agree totally that most pitchers only rely on two pitches (though I’d assume AJ throws three, with two kinds of fastballs), especially power-pitchers.  However, we shouldn’t overestimate how good his “stuff” is.  After all, even with great “stuff”, how often have the results been above “good” (or very good, but that’s a matter of what you consider an ERA+ between 110-120 to be)?  I don’t know if the answer is developing a third pitch; and I don’t know if he has the ability to so it could screw him up more.  But I also don’t think we should just dismiss it because other power-pitchers don’t use one often, etc. 

And finally, as he ages and his “stuff” deteriorates, having the third pitch may allow him to age more gracefully.  Is it better to learn that pitch now or later (rhetorical; there isn’t an answer)?

I’m going to bed, so you’ll excuse me if I don’t respond when you tear my theories apart!

If Mel Stottlemyre were still here he’d get CC, Burnett and Joba to stop wasting so many pitches on strikeouts and focus on keeping the ball down instead.

What, too soon?

“What, too soon?”

No, it’s too late.

Too late.

Too late - too late for love.

So maybe that “3rd pitch” would help after all?

Not if it isn’t a good third pitch.  I don’t disagree with the part about it being harder to get by on pure stuff and/or two pitches as he ages.  But that’s an argument against signing a guy like this more than an argument that he just needs to add a third pitch.  Like I said, he already throws a changeup.  He used to throw it more often than he has the last couple of years.  When he starts to lose the stuff, then he can worry about using it more.

he’s only had one full season with an ERA+ better than 120

My argument isn’t that he’s perfect, or great, or worth every penny of the contract, or couldn’t possibly get better.  My argument is with the assumption that he never throws a third pitch and/or that throwing a third pitch more often would automatically make him more effective.

Go easy on the Def Leppard, Rilke.

Oh yeah, BTW, so much for that big deflationary market correction, huh?

Re “He’s done it all with one pitch”, it’s worth recalling that his (by some metric anyway) most valuable year was pre-cutter.

I think that’s all the Def Leppard I know, so there’s little risk of repetition.  (Hmm, how does “Mr. Brownstone” go?)

Has OTF fallen into some space time continuum? Hiro?

Not if it isn’t a good third pitch.
...
My argument is with the assumption that he never throws a third pitch and/or that throwing a third pitch more often would automatically make him more effective.

Ah.  Yeah, the third pitch has to be a good one.  Maybe Eiland, or one of the pitchers, can help him with the change-up.  Maybe the change-up isn’t the third pitch he needs.  Maybe instead he needs a splitter, or a slider for the third pitch.

No, he shouldn’t throw it just to throw it.  It seemed to me the argument had turned to being, “he doesn’t need a 3rd pitch, lots of pitchers are successful w/o one”.  That may not be true, is all.