If the Yankees can keep up this pace for the rest of the year, they are a 99 win team.  So they can fall 10 games off that pace, and still be competitive in Sept, and maybe even win the WC.  Positive thinking!

SG, is it easy enough for you to compute the Yankees “expected” W-L for the rest of the year?  Idle curiousity, so if you can just click a button would be nice, but probably not doing any actual “work” for.  Thanks!

i love coolstandings.com, but unfortunately since their win/loss assumptions are based on rs/ra thus far, it doesn’t take into account the injuries to A-Rod and posada which (obviously) make the yankees a very different team.  also, i’d be curious to know if people think that the yankees offense is going to improve or worsen from here (as it’s been the last few weeks).  On the one hand, Giambi has been red-hot, Matsui and Posada have been better than expected.  On the other hand, Cano has been horrible, Jeter has been pretty bad, and melky (while i’ve never been that high on him) has been bad as well.  I feel like the team is probably a good bet to stay at this offensive level and possibly improve a bit.

Jeter seems to have picked it up a bit lately.  If Kevin Long is right, perhaps he will continue to get better from here on out.  Cano…who knows what the deal with him is this season, there’s been so many times when it looked like he was finally turning the corner…

is it easy enough for you to compute the Yankees “expected” W-L for the rest of the year?

It is, but it’s not good news.  Right now it says 87-75, althought that can obviously change.

i’d be curious to know if people think that the yankees offense is going to improve or worsen from here (as it’s been the last few weeks)

The Yankees have averaged about 4.6 runs per game so far.  looking at the team’s revised in-season projections and assuming reasonably good health for the starters(80% of playing time), they should score about 5.5 runs per game over the rest of the season.

thanks SG.  I was referring more to how the offense has been since A-Rod got back which as felt more like a realistic baseline going forward.

It is, but it’s not good news.  Right now it says 87-75, althought that can obviously change.

Well that’s just taking their current WPCT * 162.  That seems low; we’re expecting the offense to score about a run a game more than they have been.  Are we also assuming the pitching will be a run-a-game worse?  Also, is that using the log5 method (which may account for a tougher schedule from here)?  Seems odd that it work out that way…

I’m ready to see how this team does against real teams. They’ve beaten up some pretty good pitchers during this stretch, and other than the two games against Cincinnati they looked like the deep, unforgiving lineup they are supposed to be. The pitching will fall off when they see real lineups, I don’t expect the offense to.

Replacing Wang will likely be impossible, but if they can reinforce the bridge to Mariano with Robertson, Melancon, etc. shortly after the AS break, their offense will have a far better chance to compensate for the weaknesses in their pitching staff. They need a resurgent Cano as well.

That seems low; we’re expecting the offense to score about a run a game more than they have been.  Are we also assuming the pitching will be a run-a-game worse?
Log5 works off projected winning percentages, which I currently have set as 70% for projected and 30% for 2008 YTD.  No assumptions are made about the offense or defense besides how they feed the projected winning percentage.

Also, is that using the log5 method (which may account for a tougher schedule from here)?

Yes.  The schedule does get a lot tougher.  They still have 10 games against LA of A, who are tearing up the league.  They have 13 games remaining with Boston.  8 games with the Rays.  12 games against Toronto (9 away).

The trouble with projections of this type are that they don’t properly account for the realities of injury.  On the one hand the Yanks first three months were heavily affected by injury and without a doubt it has impacted the overall team psych and performance. It’s reasonable to project a better outcome going forward but we fans don’t know what injuries may yet lurk ahead. The optimists will be dwelling on the return of certain players making contributions but it’s very hard to know what to expect from guys like Hughes, Wang and Kennedy. On the converse, its easy to know what to expect from guys like Pavano, Ponson and Igawa- they will stink.

I think it’s also very optimistic to believe that players that have never relieved in the majors will come in and be an instant bullpen contributor.  I refer to Melancon and Robertson.

What is encouraging is that Edwar Rameriz and Veras may improve in the second half since they are getting some meaningful innings to date.  They are failing from time to time but for the most part are learning to succeed. It takes a while and Girardi deserves some credit I think for their development. We still need a good lefty for the pen IMO.

As far as the schedule ahead Cowboy is right there are a lot of strong teams in our future.  I continue to worry about the speed demon Rays running wild on our catchers. The key will be offense and it will need to be better than it has been- even this month.  There are some holes in the lineup and they are very exposed when A-rod or Giambi have off days.  Jeter, Melky and Cano need to pick up their games in the next few months for this team to pass TB or Boston and even make a WC run IMO.

http://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1028831.html

Some quotes from Kevin Long that suggest Jeter will come around.

The Yanks have a 99 ERA+ right now. Another good game pushes it up to league average. How weird is that?

Apparently they had a 99 ERA+ last year, I thought it was worse.

I think pitching have been better this year in the AL, am I wrong?

They still have 10 games against LA of A, who are tearing up the league.

The Angels have scored 327 runs and allowed 313 for an expected W-L of 40-37.  They should be coming back to earth soon, unless Vlad turns back into Vlad and the rest of their OF suddenly starts hitting.

I think it’s also very optimistic to believe that players that have never relieved in the majors will come in and be an instant bullpen contributor.

Except that it happens all the time.  Joba v. 2007 was a novel experience for Yankee fans, but you may have heard of some guys named Jenks and Zumaya and Rodriguez and Wainwright.  The list goes on and on.

The Yanks have to play the Angels 10 times this year? WTF? That’s not fair. I hate that team.

There’s going to be a lot more busts on that list than success stories.

There’s going to be a lot more busts on that list than success stories.

Yeah, but being optimistic about their prospects is not entirely unreasonable.

Especially since Relievers in particular seem to fair well in their first season facing lineups that are unfamiliar with them.

They are failing from time to time but for the most part are learning to succeed. It takes a while and Girardi deserves some credit I think for their development.

I totally agree.  I think (overall) Girardi’s use of the bullpen has seen the more effective relievers used in higher leverage situations.

Kevin Goldstein at BP is beating the drum to bring Gardner up.

Re #9 - thanks, I bothched my post.  I know log5 uses winning-pct, not RS/RA.  Part of my question was asking which method you were using, and it came out a mish-mosh.  I’m guessing that if we projected the Yankees’ players and added up the numbers, and used pythag for a winning-pct, their W-L would be better.  But that I’m sure is quite a bit of work, and really not worth-while.

I think pitching have been better this year in the AL, am I wrong?

Run-scoring is down, for sure.  Whether that is because pitching is “better” I don’t know.

On the converse, its easy to know what to expect from guys like Pavano, Ponson and Igawa- they will stink.

Actually, for Pavano, I think he has consistently demonstrated that when he pitches, he’ll be roughly league-average.  For one start; then he’ll be injured and won’t pitch again.  If that start beats the Red Sox, I’ll be fine with that

I think run scoring is down because the best hitting SS in the AL has a .720 something OPS. The middle infield has shit the bed at the plate so far this year. Pedroia, Cano, Renteria, Young, Jeter, Peralta, Cabrera and Renteria all suck. Guillen moved to first, Tejada moved to the NL. Kendrick has been blah, Ellis, Kinsler and Roberts are the only guys up the middle who are league average hitters. The scrubs are putting up 50 OPS+s instead of the normal 70s or 80. I don’t know why, but the AL middle infields have simply stopped hitting.

Ah, Grudzelanik has a 102 OPS+, but it’s somewhat counter balanced by Pena’s 0 OPS+.

FWIW, right now BPro’s PECOTA adjusted playoff odds have the Yanks around 23%. The problem there is two fold: first, it can’t properly account for the fact that the Yankees YTD performance is not indicative of their true level due to the effects of the A-Rod and Posada injuries; second, it compounds that problem by waiting current season performance far too heavily. SG’s 70/30 weight is far more realistic, although I would even lean more towards 75/25. BPro is getting close to 50/50 which is just nuts.

Anyways, the upshot is that I would place the Yanks’ chances right now closer to 1/3 than to 1/4, and perhaps as high as 40%. The odds of the Wild Card being one of Boston, Tampa Bay, or New York is something like 85% at the moment. I’ll take my chances trying to overtake one of those two.

I’d like to see the Yankees send Ohlendorf down who by an dlarge is not doing the job and give Robertson who has done nothing but succeed at every minor league level a shot.

I hope Yanks win and Ponson gets bombed on Friday.  His peripherals for Texas were awful.  Not that Karstens or Kei figure to be a whole lot better.

Robertson is not ready.  He still walks too many people.

Ponson sucks so much, Hank ordered the move to keep his other guys from having to runthe bases at Shea.

Pedroia, Cano, Renteria, Young, Jeter, Peralta, Cabrera and Renteria all suck.

Wow… Renteria must really suck to make your list twice!

Robertson has been better at controlling the walks of late.  He’s ready and will help the team more than Ohlendorf.  After all, Robertson hasn’t given up a single HR in his entire minor league career to date.

Uh, this may be a stupid question, but has anyone seen what Juan Miranda is doing in AAA since coming back from his injury? Of course, he isn’t doing well against lefties.

I’d like to see Robertson come up soon. 

Gardner… I dunno.  On the one hand, the possibility of having a guy who can get on base at a .350+ clip and have blazing speed is tantalizing.  On the other… Melky is still probably the better long-term prospect.  Gardner is repeating AAA.  Melky is 2 1/2 years into a major-league career (admittedly, not a particularly distinguished one, so far).  Tough call.

In the end, this year comes down to whether or not the team stays healthy from here on out, and if Jeter & Cano (and to a lesser extent Melky) catch fire.  The pitching will remain a weakness, now that Wang is out.  We can all hope for triumphant returns from IPK, Hughes, and assorted bullpen callups, but in the end they will probably be a basically average run-prevention team… like the Yankee teams that have been knocked out of the first round repeatedly.  But hey, I’m not complaining.  I like the plan, even if the results so far have been rather mixed.

27:I don’t know if Robertson is ready or not but as of now Ohlendorf is a net negative-so if not Robertson someone else then.

Robertson has a 24/5 K/BB ratio in June. I disagree that he is still walking too many.

I’d actually be ok with calling up Gardner or leaving Melky up.  The problem is that it makes no sense to have them both on the roster at the same time.  There are already 4 outfielders (if you count Matsui, and the way he’s been hitting you have to) and adding a 5th will only retard either his development of Melkys not to mention squeeze out another bench spot.

Brett Garnder played 45 games in AAA last season.  This being the case, I would hardly say he is “repeating the league” this year.

Also, Gardner has a .386 career OBP in the minor leagues.  Melky never did anything like that until his small sample size breakout in AAA in 2006.

#33: In June - That’s 5 walks in 15 innings.  Better, but still not great.  Or if you disagree and think it’s passable, then I have to argue that 15 innings of passable walk rate is not enough to show me he’s made significant progress from his first 35 innings this year where he walked 17.

His K rate is nice, but he needs more time to prove he’s got his control issues in check.  I think he’ll be good, but not just yet.

#34:  Excellent use of the word retard.

Gardner isn’t exactly repeating AAA. He played 45 games there in the last two months of 2007 after earning promotion from Trenton. His time there this year is just part of his normal development trajectory.

And I think it makes more sense to have Gardner on the team than a 3rd catcher.

His K rate is nice, but he needs more time to prove he’s got his control issues in check.  I think he’ll be good, but not just yet.

This is where we’re disagreeing. IMO, if he’s striking out 24 guys in 15 IP, he’s got nothing left to learn at AAA. His control might be an issue at the Major League level, but with him mowing guys down like that in AAA, he’s not going to need to improve his command.

Bring him up, throw him in blowouts and 5th/6th/7th innings against the bottom of the line up.

Ok, I concede that point.  I didn’t realize he only played 45 games in AAA last year.  So he’s not really repeating the level.  And I agree that (at least, after the double header) having him over instead of a 3rd catcher would be better.

I guess he can learn on the job if he’s pitching against the bottom of the lineup but, I imagine his K rate will drop and BB walk go up against better, more experienced hitters in the bigs.

And I agree, its well past time to drop Moeller.

I actually don’t mind the third catcher because it allows Girardi to pinch hit for Molina but doesn’t force him to use Jorge to catch.  I would rather replace Alberto Gonzalez on the roster, who isn’t really being used much these days.  Betemit can play all the infield positions for a day if need be and if someone is really hurt, by all means, call up the ex AG.

I imagine his K rate will drop and BB walk go up against better, more experienced hitters in the bigs.

Oh definitely, but he’ll learn how to pitch to Major League hitting, which will be more important to his development than working on his control while pitching against guys who aren’t capable of really touching him.

I agree with IE, I’d rather drop AG than Molina, unless Girardi is really going to give Jeter a day off every now and then.

Er, Moeller, whatever.

In that vein, they should have brought him up for interleague play so he could pitch to AAAA teams.

I’m curious as to why the Yanks have stuck with Ohlendorf so long.  He has been consistently bad with glimmers of promise.  It’s one thing is there appears to be no one else who can do the job, with Robertson and Scott Strickland pitching so well in AAA, it’s bit vexing.

In that vein, they should have brought him up for interleague play so he could pitch to AAAA teams.

I’d call him up now to face the Pirates and Mets, it’s hard to say they should have brought him up earlier because as you said, he just hasn’t pitched a lot of innings. I’m all for rushing relievers, but it’s really been his pitching over the last 15 days (4 hits, 5 walks 19 Ks, 0 R, man, that’s nasty) that makes him look Major League ready

Gardner’s projections for the rest of the year and until eternity courtesy of Dan Syzmborski:

ZiPS Future Projection - Brett Gardner
————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date* 261 44 66 8 5 3 21 40 72 22 .253 .354 .356
————————————————————————————————————
Rest 2008 241 41 63 8 3 1 17 31 56 18 .261 .348 .332
2009 505 86 130 16 6 5 57 66 117 43 .257 .344 .343
2010 502 86 129 16 5 4 56 64 102 38 .257 .342 .333
2011 535 89 134 17 5 5 58 68 110 39 .250 .336 .329
2012 507 85 127 16 5 4 54 63 112 37 .250 .334 .325
2013 495 84 123 16 4 5 55 64 109 33 .248 .335 .327
2014 502 84 122 16 4 6 56 63 115 30 .243 .328 .327
————————————————————————————————————
* - Contains Minor League Translation
</PRE>

i find it a little amusing that yankee fans seem to think that Cashman, Contreras, Eiland, Newman, etc. are not aware of EXACTLY what guys like Robertson, Melancon, Gardner, etc. are doing.

i believe Cashman was in SWB last night.

every day i read about how the Yankees need to call these guys up and send someone else down.

i am POSITIVE the organization has a plan for these guys and they will be up when they are ready. 

or maybe they are trade bait and the Yankees don’t want to show other teams what might happen to them in the majors.

we really don’t know.

what i DO know is that Brian Cashman is perfectly aware that Robertson is probably a better option than Billy Traber or LaTroy Hawkins.

things will start to happen closer to the trade deadline.

Projecting major league performance from minor league stats is a tricky business.  After all, Don Mattingly wouldn’t have projected very well given his results on the farm.  The same goes for Robinson Cano.  I’m not saying Garnder is going to be an all star, but he’s 24 and has continually improved aspects of his game, i.e. hitting for more power this year and improving his throws from the outfield.

As for trades, I don’t really see the Yanks doing anything but a minor deal - i.e. for someone like Damaso Marte rather than C.C. Sabathia.  Cashman doesn’t like being fleeced or held up and that’s how it’s going to be on the trade market for major talents.

#49:
We’re baseball fans with Internet access.  It’s either pretend you’re a GM or go to a porn site.  My company won’t allow access to porn sites so here I am.  You may notice I hardly ever post at night.

what i DO know is that Brian Cashman is perfectly aware that Robertson is probably a better option than Billy Traber or LaTroy Hawkins.

Sure he does, but it doesn’t mean we can’t speculate and discuss which moves we think he’ll make and which ones are the right ones to make. At this point I just want to see Robertson pitch now. Cashman has to consider Joe’s feelings, the workload, the clubhouse feelings about who might go down, Robertson’s personal life, his workload, his pitch selection, the opponents he’ll likely face and a dozen other things. I think we’re all aware that Cashman has a lot more information and knowledge about these guys then we do.

It’s one thing is there appears to be no one else who can do the job, with Robertson and Scott Strickland pitching so well in AAA, it’s bit vexing.

In addition to what yup said…remember too that these guys are *not* on the 40-man roster.  So you can’t just send Ohlendorf down and call up Robertson, you need to open a spot on the 40-man (though there may be one right now since they removed White, that spot I think is for Ponson).

Of course, if they get rid of Ponson and Hawkins, that opens up two spots, and Ohlendorf may then be sent down.  I know it always *seems* simple, but we have to trust that the FO has a better handle on what the value to other organizations is of players on the 40-man - i.e. if they just remove those players will they be picked up?

Scott Patterson is on the 40 man roster. I wonder why they don’t send Ohlendorf down for him.

Looking at it, they still have quite a bit of dreck to clear off of the 40 man over the next couple of years.

Don Mattingly won a few batting titles in the minors, that he was a primo hitting talent was no surprise. He did have a .332 career BA in the minors.

It was his power that developed at the ML level, thanks to working with Joe Pepitone and a few others.

i find it a little amusing that yankee fans seem to think that Cashman, Contreras, Eiland, Newman, etc. are not aware of EXACTLY what guys like Robertson, Melancon, Gardner, etc. are doing.

Word.  I can’t say that loud enough.  I’m sure if the Yankee brass thought Robertson was ready, he’d be there.  I’m also pretty sure they know more about player development than all of us, so I’d trust them.

And there’s also the other, more business-related factors as well: service time, roster issues, trades, etc.  Who knows why Cash and Co. haven’t called up Robertson yet, but there’s probably a good reason.

Hahahahahhahahhahhahha! Pavano returns before Hughes? Hahahahahahahahahaha!

Ouch.

Indeed, but based on Mattingly’s power numbers in the minors, his MLE would have had no choice but to cast him as a wimpy singles hitter.

But what a singles (and doubles) hitter Mattingly would have been!

Too bad the back gave way, what might have been…..

You don’t have to be Brian Cashman to see the reasons for not calling up Robertson. He’s been a pro for a year and a half. He’s spent all of 31 innings at AAA and he nearly walked a batter an inning for a month. If we have to hedge every idea we have on this board with the disclaimer: “Cashman probably knows more about this than I do but”, it’s going to be a very dull board. It really ought to be assumed.

It’s either pretend you’re a GM or go to a porn site.  My company won’t allow access to porn sites so here I am.  You may notice I hardly ever post at night.

this was awesome.

It really ought to be assumed.

you’re right.  on this board at least.

There’s going to be a lot more busts on that list than success stories.

The list is of guys who have come up from the minors and had a positive impact on a major league bullpen in the last month or two of a pennant race.  There are no busts on it, by definition.  The statement I responded to wasn’t about Melancon’s or Cox’s career prospects, it was about the chances of them contributing in the second half of this season.  Young pitchers do that all the time; the fact that some of them may never amount to anything in subsequent seasons is irrelevant.