Sunday, June 15, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 15 Happy Father’s Day Edition
On May 19th, I took a look at the Yankees' schedule through the All Star Break. It appeared, at least on paper, that the Yankees were entering a fairly soft part of their schedule. Here's how they've done since then, comparing their expected W/L record using Bill James's log 5 method for calculating expected winning percentage and their actual performance.| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.6 | 2.4 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.8 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.3 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.9 | 4.1 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.4 | 4.6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.6 | 5.4 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.2 | 5.8 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.8 | 6.2 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.8 | 7.2 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 12.4 | 7.6 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.9 | 8.1 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 13.2 | 8.8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.7 | 9.3 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 14.3 | 9.7 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 10.2 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 15.4 | 10.6 | 17 | 9 |
So the Yankees have played a little less than two wins better than expected over the last 26 games. They've picked up 1.5 games in the division, and have scored 148 runs while allowing 118. So that's 5.7 runs scored per game and 4.5 runs allowed per game, equivalent to 922 runs scored and 735 runs allowed over a full season.
It's also a Pythagenpat winning percentage of 60.7%, which is equivalent to 16 wins over 26 games and 98 wins over 162 games.
Today's blowout 13-0 victory over Houston also gives them a positive run differential for the first time since May 10.
That's the good news. The bad news is that because of the ridiculous farce that is inter-league play, Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot doing something he shouldn't have been doing. Right now it's being called a sprained foot. Wang will have tests on his foot when the team returns to New York. Let's hope it's not too serious, as Wang appears to have recovered from a rough stretch to throw 12.1 innings of one run ball over his last two starts.
Comments
Really? Inter-league play is being blamed for the freak incident? Wang’s a baseball player, who at times plays in games where he may have to run around the bases. Running around the bases is something he should be doing then.
Anyway, I’m pretty comfortable with where the Yankees are at this point. They don’t have as many wins as I would have expected, but other teams are in worse positions. Before the season, I would have almost guaranteed that the WC would come out of the central, but the Tigers and Indians have really put themselves in the hole. The Yankees are only looking up at the Rays and A’s, and I think the Yankees can out play them from this point going forward.
Wang’s injury hurts, but this week has been positive. Plus, the Euro Cup has helped divert my attention.
I hate Inter-League play. That said, a 28 year old human male or female professional athlete should be able to run 360 feet without causing an injury to ones self. These lads are wearing shoes that go for a grand a pair.
Alfred Manuel Martin used to pinch run Ron Guidry because he was a 28 year old athlete that could run and was a member of a baseball team trying to win baseball games.
Nice win. Wish I saw it.
Pretty sure that pitchers need to run at some point. And if Wang doesn’t know how to run, he’s a professional athlete, he ought to.
I’m not concerned, I doubt it’s a serious injury and they survive missing a start or two from him. 4 games over .500 is a pretty good place to be in mid June this year.
Ah, third to it! Sorry for piling on.
Nice to see them beat up Oswalt. He’s a stud. I don’t think many right handers are going to beat this team this year from here on out.
Of course, the mainstream media is already screaming for the Yanks to acquire C.C. Sabathia. By tomorrow, Ian O’Connor is going to write that if the Yanks don’t trade for Sabathia, regardless of what it takes, they are waving a white flag on the season.
Obviously it’s not reasonable to expect people to say that pitchers shouldn’t be expected to be able to run. But I think the reasonable argument against interleague play is that you have pitchers, who don’t run the bases regularly in game situations, now running the bases and getting in the batters box. Yes, they are baseball players and baseball players should be able to do those things without getting injured. But to say that the risk of turning an ankle or not getting out of the way of a fastball thats going to hit you in the wrist is not a legitimate complaint of interleague play, especially when the players at risk are typically your highest valued players, is a bit of a stretch. To say “they should be able to do it” is sort of glossing over that.
I’m sure Wang can run - but running the bases is a bit more dangerous: if I understand correctly he hurt himself on the base.
So SG, the OCD thing to do would be to recalculate the expectations over this stretch taking into account the opponents’ further performance (except us against us).
If nothing else, Wang’s injury should serve to stfu all the mediots who’d been screaming that Joba should’ve stayed in the bullpen.
Sorry for piling on.
No you aren’t.
So SG, the OCD thing to do would be to recalculate the expectations over this stretch taking into account the opponents’ further performance (except us against us).
Good point. My spreadsheet was already set up to do that, so I’ve updated the opponents’ performance to include up to date standings and increase the weight of 2008 from 20% to 25%. That made the Yankees’ overall schedule .5 wins easier, so their expected W-L goes from 15.4 - 10.6 to 15.9 - 10.1.
Just for grins, if we only look at 2008, their expected W-L would have been 14.6 - 11.4.
Why is it so hard for journalists, some of whom have degrees from respectable universities (Kepner is a Northwestern grad for example) to figure out that the Yanks will not trade a chunk of their team and their entire farm system for half a season of C.C. Sabathia? Cashman hates to deal from a point of weakness and rightfully so. The Indians would ask for every decent minor leaguer the Yanks have in exchange for Sabathia, plus Cano, Hughes and Joba and why wouldn’t they? If they don’t make the trade, they are still only six games out.
If nothing else, Wang’s injury should serve to stfu all the mediots who’d been screaming that Joba should’ve stayed in the bullpen.
They’ve moved on. Now it’s MUST GET C.C. SABATHIA OR ELSE!
Yeah, it’s like the Gagne trade all over again. Urgh.
The obvious solution is to remove the bases from the baseball field during a baseball game that baseball players are playing baseball on.
I can’t believe Moose said they don’t practice turning while running.
I can’t believe Pettite uses the expression Man Alive.
Instead of bases you can use manhole covers and chalk to mark the base. Thats how we played stickball in the 70’s.
Cover the field with bubblewrap and wear airbags in the uniform in case of contact. Kevlar socks. Play-Do walls in the outfield. Bobby would dig on that.
OTF, I like your thinking.
Lakers are in the process of choking away a huge lead yet again. They must have some serious coin riding on this.
The media, fans, and Yankees themselves are a portrait in overreaction before we have fact #1 about what this injury actually is.
You are quite right about that. It reminds me of my parents’ general philosophy. For example, if their calls are not returned within an hour, they immediately assume death must be the reason.
Kepner has actually written that Wang’s “season is in jeopardy.”
Apparently, Wang has webbed toes.
I didn’t know that.
Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot doing something he shouldn’t have been doing
Running is something an athlete shouldn’t do?
If a pitcher turns an ankle while running, it’s either bad luck or poor training. Don’t blame interleague play.
Can I blame interleague play for sucking much of the potential drama & novelty of the 2000 WS?
I’ve never seen a player set up to bunt as early as Wang did the inning he got hurt. It was amazing. Oswalt refused to be thrown off by the sheer submission to the process Wang demonstrated though. If CMW didn’t run so hard to first he never would have gotten hurt later, the hustler.
When’s IPK getting back?
Running is something an athlete shouldn’t do?
Is the pitcher’s job to pitch or to run the bases?
When’s IPK getting back?
Soon I think.
“except us against us”
Jeez. I will set brother against brother, and us against us. “Except against us”.
Is the pitcher’s job to pitch or to run the bases?
Your legs are made to walk and run. I don’t care what a pitcher’s “job” is. It’s sad when a professional athlete can’t use his limbs in an athletic manner.
Is it that hard for a pitcher to practice running the bases once in a while?
Your legs are made to walk and run. I don’t care what a pitcher’s “job” is.
This doesn’t answer my question.
Man, what is with NoMaas and hair? They are quickly going down the shitter.
SG - yes, when a pitcher is asked to hit, he should be able to run the bases. That’s in the job description.
It’s not that difficult - unless you don’t prepare for it. I find it hard to believe that million dollar athletes are so pampered that they can’t be expected to run around a baseball diamond.
SG - yes, when a pitcher is asked to hit, he should be able to run the bases. That’s in the job description.
It’s not that difficult - unless you don’t prepare for it. I find it hard to believe that million dollar athletes are so pampered that they can’t be expected to run around a baseball diamond.
I accept that and I concede the point. I just saw a chance to rail against inter-league play and jumped on it.
This is a single incident out of zillions of chances, right? Maybe CMW was prepared. Maybe he was as prepared as he should have been given the likelihood of the situation coming up and the risk of injury. People injure themselves getting out of bed in the morning.
People injure themselves getting out of bed in the morning.
Especially during interleague games!
—Is the pitcher’s job to pitch or to run the bases?—
The pitcher’s job is to increase his team’s chance of winning. That means scoring more runs than the other team. Mostly, it involves preventing the other team from scoring (which can be broken down into pitching and fielding). Part of it is in scoring runs (hitting, bunting, and running the bases).
For the yankees to decide that their pitchers will spend ZERO time in practicing the latter areas is just shocking. players have to run to stay in shape….why not do it around the bases?
If Wang is out a month or two, IPK has a real opportunity to do something here. I’m not holding my breath.
I’m not holding my breath.
Why not? Not that I think he’ll be the second coming of Nolan Ryan or anything, but why can’t IPK provide roughly league-average innings if he’s healthy? Why are 2 months enough to write off a promising prospect???
If Wang had hurt a muscle, upper or even lower leg region you’d all have valid points. But he hurt his foot, which is generally either a freak accident or from overtraining, not undertraining. A friend of mine is a steeple chaser who hada chance at making the Trials this summer, except that he tore his plantar fascia in two spots this fall. Is he a bad athlete because of that? I am constantly injured because I have hip impingement on both hips, I’m pretty sure that doesn’t make me a bad athlete. Getting injured happens. It sucks. But it especially sucks when you get injured because you’re doing something that you don’t normally do.
Wang’s job for will over 90% of the games he plays is to throw the ball hard, over the plate and field the ball. That’s what he should be practicing. Also, doing your running around a 360 foot loop would make anyone want to shoot themselves.
YM, I’m taking your advice and catching a 1030 showing of Iron Man tonight.
Good. You’ll thank me later.
I agree with your points in [38], btw. What happened with Wang is unfortunate but it was a freak accident, plain and simple. Doesn’t mean a pitcher at bat or on the basepaths is not an abomination, though.
watching encore. wang looks like eight belles. want to barf
some 10 year old just gave up a three run bomb to a-rod
wang looks like eight belles.
Now let’s not get too hasty. Like Barbaro, Wang deserves a chance.
i suppose taiwanese relations could possibly go downhill if we put him down. it just hurts me to see a limp Wang. ....
Incidentally, consider the headlines if Wang had gotten this injury running the bases in practice…
At least we have Hughes returning.
Don’t we?
Another item in the NY Post today to show just how much George King does NOT understand the game of baseball:
“And any deal for a second-line starter such as Shawn Chacon would carry a high price tag.”
Shawn Chacon is *not* a second-line stater! He’s a 5th/6th pitcher who can occasionally have a good month.
I was just thinking that rilkethought: wouldn’t Wang have been just as unprepared the first time he PRACTICED running the bases?
The media is certainly going to do everything to confirm our worst biases about their stupidity over this issue. On one side, we are going to hear: does this mean more starts from Igawa? On the other: why don’t the Yanks trade for C.C. Sabathia? How these people get paid actual money for this is fairly mind-boggling.
i am sure the NY media pumped their collective fists when Wang got injured. with the Yankees playing well and Joba settling in as a starter, there was almost nothing to complain about.
at least there was no on here blaming Meacham. the brain trust at Abraham’s blog decided that sending a runner from 2B on a ground ball through the right side of the infield that was hit with two outs and a full count is a firable offense.
By the way, according to Mussina, the Yankee pitchers did not practice running the bases - not that it would have made any difference.
So, aside from all the bluster that we can expect from the typical mediots, what are we expecting here? Dan McCutchen? IPK? Igawa? Karstens? I haven’t seen much that says that IPK will be ready in a week. Perhaps Dan Giese will just move over to Wang’s spot now that Joba can be left on his own.
By the way, according to Mussina, the Yankee pitchers did not practice running the bases - not that it would have made any difference.
I’ll be pretty pissed if this because a reason to somehow blame Girardi. My opinion is that it happened because Wang is not used to running the bases in games. I’m surprised more AL pitchers don’t get hurt getting into the batters box or running the bases.
what is the real chance of the yansk landing CC anytime soon? I would love to see it happen but I doubt it does.
Dan McCutchen? IPK? Igawa? Karstens?
Kennedy I’m pretty sure won’t be ready in a week. McCutchen isn’t on the 40-man, so unless Wang’s season is over and they put him on the 60-day, I don’t think it will be him (though, they could get rid of Hawkins). Jeff Marquez is on the 40-man, and his last few outings he has done well, but I don’t think he’s ready yet.
So…I think it will be either Giese or Igawa. I really wouldn’t mind seeing Igawa get a shot. Sure, he’s likely to lose. But if he pitches well - 7 innings 2 runs - his trade value goes up ENORMOUSLY. And if he fails maybe that means he really does decide he wants to go back to Japan, and the Yankees work out a buyout with him and free up the roster spot. Win-win situation.
I can’t see any real possibility of getting CC.
The Indians are still very much alive, and Boras won’t negotiate an extension.
What’s the most the Yankees would give up for a rental?
Tabata and a couple of arms from the minors?
They’re certainly not trading Melky or Hughes for a rental, like some mediots are already speculating.
what is the real chance of the yansk landing CC anytime soon
Define “soon”. I don’t think CC is going anywhere until after the AS break. Cleveland will probably wait both to see if they are still in the race, and also to drive up the price. So the two weeks leading up to the deadline is when I think he’ll be moved, if at all.
After that…I still doubt the Yankees will get him, because Cleveland will ask too much. The ONLY realistic shot I think the Yankees have of getting him is if it goes into August and they get awarded the waiver claim on him, they may be able to trade for him w/o giving up the whole farm.
They’re certainly not trading Melky or Hughes for a rental, like some mediots are already speculating.
i would trade Melky for Sabathia and take my chances with signing him in the 2 weeks after the season.
Hughes, no.
even if Wang “practiced” running the bases, what would that have done?
he didn’t get hurt sliding or anything. he wasn’t striding to beat a close play at 1B.
it was a routine play and he got hurt. it sucks, but everytime something bad happens there isn’t necessarily someone to blame. sometimes it’s just bad luck.
I would think Giese gets the chance to replace Wang until IPK is ready. If McCutchen and Alan Horne pitch well over the next month, they could come into play as well. For me, Igawa and Karstens have absolutely no upside. Sending them to the hill is essentially conceding the game unless the offense scores ten runs. Another possibility, of course, is Freddy Garcia - who would cost only money rather than prospects. This is exactly the sort of thing Cashman likes to try. In any case, that depends on whether he’s really back.
For me, Igawa and Karstens have absolutely no upside. Sending them to the hill is essentially conceding the game unless the offense scores ten runs.
By pure, dumb luck Igawa could go out and pitch a CG shutout. See the box score of a certain game in 1956 for an example. And though Giese has pitched well so far, do you really think he’s any better than Igawa? Igawa’s one of those guys that with some smoke and mirrors (getting good results even if he didn’t pitch well) may have some value. Also, with him being on the 40-man roster, pretty soon they may need to make a decision on if he is going to be part of the team or not. Might as well be now…
If the Yanks trade for Sabathia, they should ask for a window to negociate an extension inmediately. If they can do that I’d give Hughes or Melky in a heartbeat. And I’m not saying that because Wang is injured, I just think that getting CC will be a very good move, people think that he is pitching bad this season but thats not true. His stats are not that good because of two horrible starts, but those 2 starts apart and he’s one of the best starters in the AL.
I really want Sabathia, if we can give him an extension when we get him and if we don’t have to empty the farm for him. I’d give a package based on Melky, Cano, Kennedy or Hughes, plus some type B prospects.
All the typical outlets seem to think that biggest indication of Sabathia being traded is the fact that the Indians are 6.5 games back of the White Sox. Factor in Sabathia’s rough start and the fact that Carmona hasn’t pitched in 3 weeks, and there’s certainly a reason to expect a turn around for the Indiands, even with Cliff Lee becoming a human being (and more likely, just a decent pitcher) again. I really doubt Mark Shapiro is as close to giving up on his season as some would speculate.
I really doubt Mark Shapiro is as close to giving up on his season as some would speculate.
this is very true. does anyone think the White Sox are for real?
Sabathia may not be available, but if he is I hope the Yanks will tray hard to get him.
the problem with trading for Sabathia is that the Yankees and the Indians just aren’t a good match.
the Indians are looking for young position players. the yankees don’t have many. the Indians have young pitching, as do the yankees.
could the Yankees get creative and get another team involved? maybe. would the yankees be willing to part with Cano? i don’t think so, but who knows?
i don’t see how you do that for a rental. and i don’t see any scenario where Sabathia signs an extension mid-season.
Sababthia holds the ultimate hammer in that he is already VERY wealthy. he has earned about $35M already. if i were his agent, i would advise him to hold out for free agency and get a bidding war going.
Perhaps the smart move here is not to look into a deal for Sabathia, but for someone else. With an offense that is now clicking and putting up 5-6 runs on a nightly basis, the Yankees don’t necessarily need to do some as drastic as deal for a frontline guy like Sabathia to fill the innings gap.
Regardless of how poorly Cano is hitting this season, he is a 25 year old with a good track record. Trading him would be very foolish. Also, who plays 2B if he’s gone? The Yanks have piled up enough arms that they can weather this injury. The organization has no depth 2B, though.
And yes, I believe Giese is better than Igawa. He’s not great, but at least he has an idea. Igawa lobs 89 mph fastballs up in the zone time after time.
“Perhaps the smart move here is not to look into a deal for Sabathia, but for someone else. With an offense that is now clicking and putting up 5-6 runs on a nightly basis, the Yankees don’t necessarily need to do some as drastic as deal for a frontline guy like Sabathia to fill the innings gap. “
Are you serious?? If we lose Wang for 3 months, don’t you think we need an ace?
This is the Yankees, I know they passed on Gagne and Santana, but they have some blue chips to feel their needs in a trade. And I do think Sabathia could sign an extension in August, why not? He is going to be paid like a FA and he is going to wear pinstripes for years to come.
In the case that anyone is interested in talking about something other that how much it would suck if the Yankees lost Wang for the year, how far fetched is to think that the top 5 MVP candidates for the AL this year have to be Hamilton, Bradley, ARod, Giambi and maybe JD Drew with his super hot month with Ortiz going down. Hamilton hasn’t ever done it for a full year and Bradley is always an injury risk, JD Drew isn’t that good. Should be interesting to watch.
Are you serious?? If we lose Wang for 3 months, don’t you think we need an ace?
Am I serious? Yes. If the Yankees lose Wang for 3 months, should they panic, trade a bunch of young players they’ve spent years getting their hands on and developing? No. At the very least, they need somoeone who will eat the innings that Wang usually does. If the price for a(n) (rental) ‘ace’ is 20 times higher than for a pitcher who will give you a chance to win say, 3 out of every 4 games (say, a 4.0-4.2 ERA), I think the answer is obvious. The question is whether or not a pitcher of that caliber already exists in the system.
The question is whether or not a pitcher of that caliber already exists in the system.
Several do; the question is whether or not they are ready to do that right now. But they should be able to pick up a pitcher like that for not too much. I was thinking of Gil Meche - who because of his salary and where he plays shouldn’t cost much in terms of players - but I’m not sure if he’s even that good. If they could get him for peanuts, then sure.
Are you serious?? If we lose Wang for 3 months, don’t you think we need an ace?
when is the trade deadline? when do you think Sabathia will get dealt?
let’s say Sabathia is dealt on July 30th.
that would give him what, 12 starts in pinstripes?
what do you think the advantage is over 12 starts between Sabathia and Kennedy or maybe Hughes? 2 wins? 3 wins?
are you willing to give up a boatload of young talent for 12 starts?
are you willing to give up a boatload of young talent for 12 starts?
The interesting thing is if I’m a team like Cleveland, who hasn’t won a World Series in like 1,000 years, I might be willing to give up the talent for 12 starts. It would mean so much to the franchise to get that WS win. Which is exactly why Cleveland will hold on to CC until the last minute.
Though it may feel to us Yankee fans like the team hasn’t won a WS in a 1,000 years, we’ve had one championship and three WS appearances this DECADE. Cashman needs to build the team not for this year, but for the next dynasty.
Is Sabathia a Scott Boras client? I was thinking that perhaps the only thing that should reasonably keep the Yankees interested in Sabathia is if a trade came with a 72 hour negotiating window in which they could work out a Yankee-friendly extension with Sabathia (say, 4 years or something like that.) The negotiation of the extension would be a requirement to push the deal through, but if Boras represents Sabathia, I can’t really see that happening.
The negotiation of the extension would be a requirement to push the deal through, but if Boras represents Sabathia, I can’t really see that happening.
Looking at recent history with Boras, his clients are starting to exert more control. If CC wants to be a Yankee bad enough, he’ll listen to proposals. If he doesn’t, he won’t.
Hughes cannot be traded as he is injured. And who knows when Mr. Breakable will be healthy.
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