This is interesting, but Mussina has also been one of the best pitchers in the league during the same time, so it is expected that both his RA and ERA must be smaller than league or team average. I think RA-ERA/RA would be a better indicator of how much unearned runs he allows compared to his true talent level.

It looks like there have been some years where he had more than 10% of his runs unearned, probably 99 and 06, which seems high but, more likely than not, within reason. I think it was in 06 he became known for melting down after an error, which is probably unfair.

Good point yfinBrazil, and rilkefan made the same point in his original post but I missed it.  I’ll post an update.

I always assumed pitchers allow about 10% more runs than earned runs, but it’s closer to 8%.

A quick check of Br shows that usually 7.8 to 8% of the runs are unearned in the AL. Only in 91, 99 and 06 did mussina exceed 8.1% of unearned runs, although this year he will probably do it again.

Sorry, I was doing the back of the envelope math while you wrote your update. Thanks for the great job running this site, It is really an amazing work.

I was leaning towards guessing that a pitchers RA-ERA/ERA should average over a carreer to that of the teams he played, with a very high SD, something like “there are no melting pitchers, and no bear down pitching.”

But I cannot explain the ketchup sock blogger numbers, and the logical conclusion is not one I want to derive.

excuse the “interruption”, but i’m looking for ticket info and this blog appears to be one of the more sane Yankee blogs… i’m from Texas but will be in NYC this summer and am looking for advice on where to purchase tickets.  i see that Barry’s Tickets advertises here, but i understand that’s not necessarily an endorsement.  however, compared to say Stub Hub, their prices do look pretty good.  also, any advice about seat locations would be appreciated.  i don’t mind spending what it takes to get good seats—within reason.  i’ll appreciate any words of wisdom anyone has!

First off, thanks.  I guess it’s consistent with yfinBrazil‘s expectation that most pitchers behave similarly after errors, maybe with this year being a fluctuational fluke.

Second, I’m unhappy about relying on a flat error rate to drive the innate RA-ERA difference we’re trying to subtract or divide out.  So I’m moving to wanting to see something more complicated like relative rate of runners who reach on errors scoring, or relative likelihood of runs in innings with errors, or OPS/OPS_usual in an inning after an error.  E.g., what happens when the error rate behind Mussina fluctuates to zero?  Then the above ratio is just zero, and Mussina looks good.  Even dividing by your team ratio (removing Mussina’s #s) doesn’t guard against that.  That would suggest looking at the correlation between error rate and unearned runs, maybe in ERA slices, and seeing if that’s predictive, then trying to see how Mussina’s (RA-ERA)/errors comes out.

Another unsatisfactory feature of this calculation is that I suspect error rate is something of a proxy for poor defense, which ought to have the same sort of psychological impact if there is any.  Maybe that’s second-order at worst though.

The stats do a great job of separating perception and reality.  There have been a few times where the Yankees have made errors that have led to runs, and then Mussina bitches about it in the postgame (I believe there was a particular vocal incident in 2006 with A-Rod).

Sounds like Giese is coming up on Tuesday to back up Joba.  Anyone know who’s goin down?

Anyone know who’s goin down?

With any luck, Shelley Duncan.

Probably Patterson, should be Hawkins getting the DFA, but that doesn’t look like it will happen.

With all due respect, my first thought when reading [7] is that it represents the flip side of confirmation bias: the results don’t fit perception, so we keep digging until we find one that does. I’m not saying that’s definitely going on here, and I’m not trying to pick on rilkefan. I’m just saying that if we dig long enough, we’re bound to find evidence to support that Moose melts down sooner or later. That’s why you have to derive the correct measurement first and then let the results speak for themselves.

Then again, I probably want to stop digging because the results do confirm my own preconceptions: that pitchers do not experience massive psychologically induced meltdowns when errors are committed behind them. So there. Confirmation bias for everyone!

With any luck, Shelley Duncan.

Perhaps it’s worth taking the day off and devoting it to contemplative prayer in an effort to make this happen. I must consider this.

You cannot petition the Lord with prayer!

I was in Chicago all weekend (Cubbies had quite the weekend) and didn’t see anything at all, I’ll take 2 out of 3 so far against Minnesota. And they get Livan tonight. I’m excited.

Mike Mussina leads the team in wins. Excellent!

With any luck, Shelley Duncan.

It makes no sense to send Shelley Duncan down now.  At least, not if the point is to bring up a pitcher.  Sending Duncan down would leave the Yankees with two bench players; Betemit and Moeller.

Personally, I think they’re already playing with fire by having only three bench players.  But only two.  Two?  The right move to bring up another pitcher, is to DFA Hawkins.  They could *also* send Duncan down and bring up Lane (or Christian or ???).

One of the only Yankee games I saw last summer when I was in Cuba was Mussina pitching against Livan (who was then pitching for Arizona).  Most decent hotels in Havana have ESPN, so I had the pleasure of seeing the vaunted Yankee offense of last year in top form.  Winning three of four in Minny sure would be great.

Hawkins isn’t getting DFA, River Ave Blues reports there might actually be an interest in Hawkins. 

I’ll bet a dollar it’s Mr. Britton who goes down.

By the way, I’m not sure whether people are aware of how great Brett Gardner is doing in AAA.  He has an OPS north of .860 and is consistently driving the ball in the gaps.  I’m beginning to wonder whether he could be an everyday OF for the Yanks next year.

Patterson didn’t pitch all that well yesterday.  He’ll be sent down.  And as for Hawkins, the article says that the Rockies would only consider trading for him if they begin contending - which won’t be anytime soon.

SG, excellent work dissecting one of the Mussina Myths (TM).

For your next assignment, perhaps you can dispell the CW that Moose melts down when pitching on irregular rest.

The third myth, but one that anyone with 2 minutes can look up for themselves, is that Moose is not a “big game” pitcher.

perhaps if we dispell enough of these myths with facts, we can start a grassroots campaign to drum up support for Moose’s HoF induction as shameless as the current one for Jim Rice!

Not sure how long the Yankees should sit on Hawkins to wait for interest to drum up.  I suppose at this point the difference between he and Patterson is negligeable; though Patterson has some more upside (and is cheaper).

I’m beginning to wonder whether he could be an everyday OF for the Yanks next year.

Still is only 1/3rd of the season, so we’d like to see him finish strong.  But if he can keep putting up these numbers, he’d at LEAST be one of the better 4th OF the Yankees have had since I’ve been watching.

perhaps if we dispell enough of these myths with facts, we can start a grassroots campaign to drum up support for Moose’s HoF induction as shameless as the current one for Jim Rice!

You know what would be nice this year, and would probably get Moose in?  1) winning 20 games 2) a WS ring, where he wins at least one game in the series.  Two of the knocks against him would be gone, plus he would be spitting-distance from 300 wins.

You know what would be nice this year, and would probably get Moose in?  1) winning 20 games 2) a WS ring, where he wins at least one game in the series.  Two of the knocks against him would be gone, plus he would be spitting-distance from 300 wins.

If Moose can get close to 20 this year and ends up in the NL next year on a 2 year deal, I could see 300 wins happening. He’s 32 wins short of 300 right now.

He’s actually 42 wins short of 300 (258).  Still, if he goes to NL for 2 years as you suggest it’s not out of realm of possibilities.

Gardner retooled his swing during the Arizona Fall League to help him hit for more power.  I don’t think his AAA numbers are fluky.  I’m just curious to see how he would fare against major league pitchers.  If his power is at least credible (i.e. capable 10-15 HR), he may very well be able to translate his high on base percentage from the minors - which is currently above .400.  And once he’s on, he’s the type of player who will give a pitcher fits.

42 wins short of 300 (258) Oops

Not sure how long the Yankees should sit on Hawkins to wait for interest to drum up.

Can’t trade him before June 15 in any case.

I may be missing someone or counting wrong, but it looks like there is room for one more on the 40-man roster, at least until somebody has to come off the 60-day DL.  So what is the deal with Lane?  When do they have to fish or cut bait on him?  Are they going to give him a major league audition before they cut him loose?

[12] You’ll note that in my original requests to SG I already was talking about better ways to answer the question; and if you can’t answer my point about input error rates then you can’t complain about confirmation bias.

“For your next assignment, perhaps you can dispell the CW that Moose melts down when pitching on irregular rest.”

Per b-ref, Moose pitches poorly on short rest-4.95 ERA, though in just 10 starts.  But he pitches better with 5 or 6 days rest.

I’curious: How does Gardner compare to Jacoby Ellsbury? Seems like they’d be fairly similar, no*?  Lots of speed, not much power?

*A la Joe Morgan, I make these conclusions not based on any stats whatsoever.

I don’t think his AAA numbers are fluky.

I’m a big Gardener supporter, and I certainly don’t think his numbers are *fluky*.  But the difference between an .800 OPS and a .900, could be the difference between thinking of him as a starter or 4th OF next year.  So, hopefully he finishes strong.

*A la Joe Morgan, I make these conclusions not based on any stats whatsoever.

Joe Morgan usually makes the comparison based on if they look similar. As in height, weight, age.  And pretty much nothing else.

I’m just curious to see how he would fare against major league pitchers.

Retooled swing or not, I would expect major league pitchers to challenge the hell out of him, at least the first time around.  Whether he hits for power or not, he will have to hit for a high average to have a respectable OBP.  So while I agree with you about credible power (or the lack thereof) determining whether his OBP translates in the long run, I suspect that his BA in the short run will determine whether or not we ever get to see what he can do in the long run.

I just realized that tomorrow is both Joba day and my birthday. I hope its as nice a birthday as last years game, featuring ARod’s 9th inning walk off blast against Papelbon.

I already was talking about better ways to answer the question

To tell you the truth, I’m not sure what the question is any more.  If I’m following this, then the original prediction of the “Moose melts down after an error” school of thought is that he should give up more unearned runs than the average bear.  It turns out he doesn’t.  What else do you want to know?

Note that I’m not trying to be snarky here.  Just looking for the liberal arts version of the statistical problem you’re trying to get at.

[27] Yeah, I’m not trying to attack you or your ideas, I’m just saying that that was the first thing that occurred to me. I’ll take your word that you’ve been refining your measurement independent of SG’s results. And again, I’m not trying to say that you are biased and I am not. I’m just pointing out a concern.

I’m not sure how you can look at anything other than error rate without using play-by-play data to try and correlate highly convertible outs that aren’t converted, which would include errors, with future runs in the innings. That would require some UZR-like estimate of likelihood of the play being made, which seems like a gargantuan task.

In any case, the best test that I can think of would be to take all plays that were not made behind Mussina and correlate the likelihood of that play being made by an average defense with the actual runs scored after the play less the expected runs scored after the play given average performance by Mussina.

On the other hand, I would note that since errors are usually highly makable plays, we would expect this effect to show up in *some* way even when just examining errors. Nonetheless, I think that the proper data to which to correlate the unmade plays would be actual runs scored less expected runs scored given the resultant base-out state. This would avoid penalizing Mussina for the change in run expectation as a result of the effect of the error on the game state and leave him on the hook only for additional runs scored.

I think you’ve got the question right.  I think what they’re trying to determine now is if they are looking at the right way of answering it.  For example, since they’re only looking at the relationship between total runs and earned-runs, I don’t think that accounts for errors where no runs score; or no unearned runs anyway.  The stats they’re using are getting over my head; I got a B- a decade ago.

Apparently, there are starting to be rumblings of a trade-rumor for the Yankees for Brian Fuentes.  Unfortunately, the rumors all point back to these two sentences from yesterday’s Denver Post.

<blockquote>Keep an eye on the Yankees’ interest in Brian Fuentes, whom they have liked for years. New York needs a reliable late-inning setup man to replace Joba Chamberlain, who joins the rotation Tuesday.</blockqoute>

I know Cashman admitted last year he was interested in Fuentes, so I’m guessing this speculation is based on the reporter saying, “Cashman liked Fuentes last year, Joba is in the rotation, therefore Cashman is interested in Fuentes”.  However, there may be more to it, so I thought I’d bring it up.

After an error is made, some of the runs still count as earned, right?  So isn’t just looking at Moose’s unearned RA little misleading? I’m not trying to critique anyone, by the way.

Given the Yanks’ plethora of relievers, I believe Cashman will try an in house solution before dealing for Fuentes.  After all, JB Cox is yet to give up a run in AAA and David Robertson has looked impressive as well, although he needs to cut down on the free passes.

As for Gardner, there is no way he will have a .900 OPS anytime in the near future.  That’s Bobby Abreu in his prime.  However, the Yanks are currently carrying Melky’s .719 OPS without much complaint.  Defensively, Gardner will have more range than Melky given his speed but lacks Melky’s arm.  If his bat is equal or slightly better, that plus his stolen base capability could make him a better choice for the team’s CF.  Of course, if Melky can return to his April form, perhaps he can be moved to RF next season.  If not, he could be trade bait.

After an error is made, some of the runs still count as earned, right?

Depends on the situation when the error was made and what happens after the error.  There’s no simple or single answer, but for the purposes of this discussion, it would probably be better to say that some of the runs scored after an error may be earned.

the Yanks are currently carrying Melky’s .719 OPS without much complaint.

And frankly, I’m starting to wonder why.

The Yanks are obviously hoping for Melky’s bat to revive.  He has been particularly bad from the right side.

[34] This is like the x-hits-into-many-DPs question - it’s not fair if x comes up a lot w/<2 outs and runners on, which is why I’ve mentioned the input error rate as a variable to investigate.  Maybe the spike this year is just lots of errors, maybe it’s an indication that Mussina’s current talent leaves little margin, maybe something else.

Melky was pretty bad from the right side last year, too.  It’s still a pretty small sample, but at some point you have to wonder whether he’s a platoon player.

...or if he should simply stop pretending to be a switch hitter.  After all, we don’t know how he would do lefty-lefty, right?

the spike this year is from when he gave up like 6 unearned runs in 1 inning.

or if he should simply stop pretending to be a switch hitter.

I have a feeling that a lot of guys would be better off if they stopped trying to switch hit (yes, I’m looking at you Betemit).  This feeling is not based on any research.  Still, I wonder how many switch hitters have ever done the experiment (at the major league level of course) and how it turned out.

I should also note that it wouldn’t help the Yankees much for Betemit and Cabrera to stop switch hitting.  They’d still need to find some decent righthanded hitters to platoon with them.

In other news, Mark Prior is going to need surgery again and is out for the year.  Somebody out there somewhere must have voodoo doll of him with pins stuck every which way through its right shoulder.

Somebody out there somewhere must have voodoo doll of him with pins stuck every which way through its right shoulder.

There’s a Dusty Baker remark/joke in here somewhere, but I’m too busy/lazy to make it.

As for Melky’s platoon splits, he has a career OPS of .751 as a lefty batter and, gulp, .666 as a righty.  It’s too bad Gardner is a lefty, too.

He’s given up 9 unearned runs on 29 earned - dropping those 6 runs he’s already above expectation (on negligible statistics) - but then, those 6 runs counted.  Back on April 7, a Cano error allowed a runner on with 2 outs, but Mussina retired the next guy.  On 24 Sep 2006, there was this 6 run, 2 ER inning:

- R. Baldelli doubled to left
- D. Young safe at first on shortstop D. Jeter’s throwing error
- R. Baldelli to third on wild pitch
- C. Crawford singled to first, R. Baldelli scored, D. Young to second
- G. Norton walked, D. Young to third, C. Crawford to second
- T. Wigginton singled to center, C. Crawford and D. Young scored, G. Norton to second
- K. Witt struck out swinging
- D. Navarro grounded into fielder’s choice, G. Norton to third, T. Wigginton out at second
- B.J. Upton ground rule double to deep right, G. Norton scored, D. Navarro to third
- B. Zobrist singled to shallow right, D. Navarro and B.J. Upton scored
- B. Zobrist caught stealing, catcher to second

Maybe the mechanism for moving this measurement is 6-run innings.  Maybe the Yankees field badly behind Mussina and there’s often an error when a bad inning happens to occur.  Maybe his fielders fear that errors will score when Mussina’s pitching and get tense.  Maybe I’ve seen three or four innings like the above and missed innings like on 7 April.

Somebody out there somewhere must have voodoo doll of him with pins stuck every which way through its right shoulder.

Will Carroll?  Mike Marshall?

[52]->[46]

Maybe I’ve seen three or four innings like the above and missed innings like on 7 April.

Maybe innings like the above tend to stick in the memory (and in the craw) whereas errors that don’t lead to runs are quickly forgotten?

Yep, but the (RA-ERA)/ERA metric doesn’t tell me if there have been ten 7 Aprils or one to go with those 6-run innings.  Mussina didn’t have any of those 6-run innings back in the day…

Maybe innings like the above tend to stick in the memory (and in the craw) whereas errors that don’t lead to runs are quickly forgotten?

this.

a quick scan shows 4/28 and 5/3 as 2 more examples of Moose successfully pitching around errors, and that is just this year in 1/3 of a season.

Fascinating article about Joe Molloy, who once ran the Yankees:

http://tinyurl.com/6jotqs

I was a fan then, but I had no idea who he was.

Interesting tidbit:  Brian Sabean was one of the people who helped turn the Yanks away from trading prospects for aging veterans.  Weird.

[58] Excellent read, thanks.  George chewed up and spit out a lot of good people in his day.

What was the reasoning behind having Joba start Tuesday instead of today? Was it just to keep Pettitte on his normal schedule? The side effect is that now the Yanks have Joba and Mussina back to back in the rotation. That can’t be good for the bullpen, since they’re not likely to pitch more than 11 innings combined. Secondly, having to face Halladay almost ensures Joba won’t get a W in his starting debut. And finally, starting him today would have him in line to pitch again on Saturday, when I’ll be at the game!

Was it just to keep Pettitte on his normal schedule?

Mostly, also to hopefully have the bullpen relatively rested since Chamberlain will be limited to about 70 pitches.  The problems you note are real, but the alternative wasn’t really all that much better.

having to face Halladay almost ensures Joba won’t get a W in his starting debut

Having to average < 14 pitches per inning in order to last five probably takes care of any chance of him getting a W.

Maybe the mechanism for moving this measurement is 6-run innings.

I was thinking something like OPS of the batter following an error, but to make it meaningful I’d have to look at a control group as well and it sounds like it’d be pretty hairy.  I’ll keep batting the question around in my head to see if I can think of a fairly easy way to do it.

As for Gardner, there is no way he will have a .900 OPS anytime in the near future.

I was thinking this year in AAA.  I think that’s kind of his ceiling.  No, I wouldn’t expect him to ever get to .900 OPS in the majors; or if he did it would probably be a fluke.

Getting back to [60], the bullpen has pitched 12.3 innings in the last three days.  Starting Joba tonight knowing that you’ll need at least four or five innings of relief is probably not the best move.  We should expect to see Pettitte stay out there for 110 pitches even if he’s getting bombed early on.

Rasner’s been pitching well, but he can’t exactly be counted on to get you into the eighth inning either.

The side effect is that now the Yanks have Joba and Mussina back to back in the rotation.

the Yankees are carrying an extra reliever for just this purpose.  Giese will be there to absorb the extra innings so the rest of pen isn’t overly taxed.

i think this is a smart move. 

besides, Joba is going to go 8 1/3 innings on 75 pitches, with 25 3 pitch K’s.

that’s my pessimistic scenario anyway.

How many pitchers can be counted on to go eight innings?  Aside from Halladay and vintage Wang or Beckett, there aren’t many.  Pettitte can probably throw seven innings tonight and if the Yanks are winning either Farnsworth or Edwar can pitch the eighth and Mariano can close things out.  Ideally, the Yanks could build up a big lead against Livan early - allowing them to insert Hawkins, Britton or Patterson for mop up duty.

As for the Jays, they are not exactly an offensive powerhouse.  If Joba is aggressive, he may be able to pitch six innings against them and remain within his limit.

How many pitchers can be counted on to go eight innings?

I said get you into the eighth, not go eight.  The question I was attempting to anticipate and respond to is whether there’s really much difference between slotting Chamberlain after Pettitte and before Mussina or after Rasner and before Pettitte.