SG is back, people.

Don’t understand the 5.01 2008 MLE.  Looks more like 2 tome.

Don’t understand the 5.01 2008 MLE.  Looks more like 2 tome.

Transcription error. His MLE ERA is actually 2.17.

It’s like running from a bear. He doesn’t need to out run the bear, he just needs to out run Kennedy.  Having Rasner on hand will give the team a lot more flexibility to develop Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy at a slower pace

Fearless Fanboy Prediction: Kennedy will get 2 more starts in AAA, dominate, come up and pitch like he did last year and all will be well.

That certainly would be nice. 

Let’s just hope that the first 2 starts are not a function of the scouting report not getting around on him. It certainly would be nice to have Rasner pitching well while Hughes and IPK figure things out.

Wow, if Adam Everett is hitting a HR off of you, it’s not your night.

Well alright. He’s certainly outpitched Mr Hughes and Mr. Cennedi,albeit a small sample.
I want to see Ian back in town directly,so I never have to poison my eyes with Igawaness again.
It’s not K’s fault I hate him so much. I’m sure he’s a nice guy to have around for a whiffle ball game on blacktop.
So is my katt. He runs down everything. Cant throw very well. The katt looks better in pinstripes I have to say.
Robby seems to be back. Deep down I have to admit I was afraid he was gonna pull a Charbeneou.SIC.
We are doing OK for a club thats lost a quarter of its run producing ability due to DL’ness.
As always I have faith.
Jonathan: what kind of auto didja purchase? I hope it gets 35+ mpg. We need more of those.

That would be Charboneau.Amazing how good that kid was and how his world turned to shit.

Didn’t Charboneau only have one good year?  Cano at least had three under his belt.  My fear was an Andruw Jones 2007 type of season.  In any case, all’s well that ends well.

And I’ve always liked Rasner.  He should have a place on this team as a long man even if all the hot shot kids perform to their expectations.

Sorry for the confusion IE. I was goofing on the lads who thought RC was cooked. 45 doubles and 25 HR’s coming atcha.No Scranton in sight.Of course Dustbin P is better. He’s better than Lazzeri. Even Morgan. Or Alomar.Billy Ripken even.

Yo Eelz, hope ya got the Mamalla something to make her say “Oh Shit Lad” “ I Love You”.

Ornette was even nuttier than Jimi.

or Bird.

my friend ben won’t shut up about “lonely woman”.

I prefer the J.Zorn version.

So, is there going to be a countdown ticker under the bullpen counter to Rivera’s 1000th inning pitched?  I can’t wait to see his career 197 ERA+ displace Pedro at the top of the b-ref list.

yeah that’s coolest thing going on this season. goddamn msm never mentions the important stuff.

Re weighting, if I understand the above you’ve combined the 2008 MLE and 2008 ML #s directly.  Naively I would think that the former have relatively less predictive value per inning than the latter.  So one ought to use the relative chi-squareds or something to combine them.

... if one wants to be really pedantic.

My hope is that Rasner is this year’s Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon, except with more actual talent.

I keep hearing the announcers making this Aaron Small comparison.  It has very little basis. 

Small was 34 when he arrived with the Yankees and had made his ML debut 11 years earlier. He had been with 6 organizations--the Marlins twice. No one could have predicted he would help the Yankees at all before that season. 

Rasner is 27, the age when most pitchers are hitting their stride.  He has been with Washington and the Yankees, period.  Everyone tracking the Yankees over the last 2 years knew that Rasner might factor into the team’s fortunes at some point.

I guess the comparison is a result of commentators-who-don’t-really-know-very-much-about-this-guy-because-they can’t be bothered-to-do-any-reading.  Hardly a fault for the amateur but quite annoying when it’s professionals paid to talk on TV and radio.

Naively I would think that the former have relatively less predictive value per inning than the latter.  So one ought to use the relative chi-squareds or something to combine them.

I think you’re right, although in this case it wouldn’t make a huge difference.  If we give his two MLB starts twice the weighing of his MLE, his translated ERA for 2008 goes from 2.41 to 2.72 and his going forward projection goes from 4.77 to 4.81.

I like the fact that Rasner (in his admittedly small sample size) never seems to need more than 85 pitches to throw six innings.

And conversely, he never seems to be able to go *beyond* 85 pitches or so.

And conversely, he never seems to be able to go *beyond* 85 pitches or so.

Is that his fault or is Girardi too quick with the hook?  I haven’t seen either game so I’m asking honestly.

And conversely, he never seems to be able to go *beyond* 85 pitches or so.

In both of Rasner’s starts he could have been left in longer but the Yankees are carrying 26 relievers right now, all of whom are relatively rested.

Indeed.  Rasner mitigates one problem (i.e. the two inning starts of IPK and Hughes) and leaves a smaller one in its wake - namely, the need to find innings for the legion of relievers on the roster.  Personally, I’d like to see more of Veras.  He has good stuff.  Previously, he had no command but in his few outings this season that didn’t seem to be an issue.

Hey, I like Rasner!  I was just sayin’…

Is that his fault or is Girardi too quick with the hook?

He (Girardi) probably could’ve left Rasner in a little longer in both games...I didn’t see the whole Detroit game, just the middle innings, so I don’t know how tough a game he had.  In the Seattle game, Joe definitely seemed to have had a very quick hook. 

I do also get your point about getting relievers work, though. 

On that note, do we really need 7980 relievers on the team right now?

On that note, do we really need 7980 relievers on the team right now?

Probably not, but check the 40 man roster.  There aren’t a whole lot of position players to pick from with the injury situation.  The only available position players on the 40 are Chris Stewart and Juan Miranda.

Rasner added a cutter this year which some are crediting for his success.  If that is indeed true then his 2008 projection may understate his talent level.

I think another thing that may underestimate his talent-level, is the fact that - IIRC - the last few years he has spent significant time being injured, and then in the minors he was doing rehab-starts.  Obviously, we can only evaluate him on what he DID, not what he may have done if not being injured.  But I have to think coming back from an injury can distort your stats a little.

There aren’t a whole lot of position players to pick from with the injury situation.

I think once ARod and Posada come back, we’ll lose one pitcher.  Probably Moeller and a pitcher go down, since Gonzalez will still be needed to back up 2nd and SS, at least until Betemit comes back.

I feel bad for the poor Wilson Betemit.  If that guy had no bad luck he’d have no luck at all!

I am, however, inexplicably happy to see that the ex-AG is coming back.

i had no problem with pulling Rasner on Saturday.

Girardi let him start the 7th and he was probably going batter to batter. 

if he got people out, he would have stayed in the game. 

the first baserunner, he was pulled.

now, if that was Wang or Pettitte, i’d be upset.  those guys get to pitch out of that.

but it’s Darrell Rasner.  he is doing a very nice job, but it’s still Darrell Rasner. if he gives up a HR, it’s 5-4.

the heart of that Detroit lineup is ridiculous.  once Rasner gave up the base hit, i have no problem going with the fresh arm.

against Seattle, Girardi specifically said he was trying to get people work and if there was no off-day the next day, Rasner pitches the 7th.

no big deal at all.  this is not a Torre situation, the relievers were well rested.

"but it’s Darrell Rasner.  he is doing a very nice job, but it’s still Darrell Rasner. if he gives up a HR, it’s 5-4.”

5-3, wasn’t it?

no big deal at all.  this is not a Torre situation, the relievers were well rested.

Yup, you’re arguing with nobody.

5-3, wasn’t it?

yup, you are right.  duh.

Yup, you’re arguing with nobody.

which means i might win one for a change

In both of Rasner’s starts he could have been left in longer...

Do we know this?  How many pitches has he been throwing in his AAA starts.  Some guys just hit a big ol’ honker wall at 85 pitches.  Not saying that Rasner is one of those guys; just wondering if anyone has the data.

Rasner is likely pitching over his head right now...

Probably just semantics, but I’m not sure I’d put it quite that way.  Pitching performances, especially from 4th/5th starters, are not exactly normally distributed around the pitcher’s averages.  I wouldn’t expect a guy like Rasner to have very many 5 or 6 IP, 3 or 4 run outings.  I’d expect him to be either better or worse than that most times out, and I don’t think that a couple of six inning two-run games amounts to pitching over his head.

Do we know this?  How many pitches has he been throwing in his AAA starts.  Some guys just hit a big ol’ honker wall at 85 pitches.  Not saying that Rasner is one of those guys; just wondering if anyone has the data.

I don’t have pitch counts per-se, but in 5 starts Rasner threw 6, 6, 5, 8, and 6 innings.  The 8-inning game he only had 2 hits, a walk, and 5 K’s so probably low pitch-count.  I’d agree it is unlikely that he threw much more than 85 pitches in any start down there.

That being said, I’d certainly like to see him pushed up to 100 pitches, but definitely we want the situation to allow for that.  E.g. an 8-1 lead would be nice.

"Pitching performances, especially from 4th/5th starters, are not exactly normally distributed around the pitcher’s averages”

Have you seen data on relative skewness or whatever for sub-average pitchers?  I would think that a pitcher whose ERA was pulled high from the mode (or gaussian peak) would be relatively good (that is, rather better than his mean ERA) - consider the (Gedanken)case of the guy who gives up 1000 runs in one start and 0 in 29 starts.  One of these days I’ll succeed in hounding SG into running such a study.

So, is there going to be a countdown ticker under the bullpen counter to Rivera’s 1000th inning pitched?

Yes.  It’s up now under the Bullpen Counter.

Have you seen data on relative skewness or whatever for sub-average pitchers?  I would think that a pitcher whose ERA was pulled high from the mode (or gaussian peak) would be relatively good (that is, rather better than his mean ERA) - consider the (Gedanken)case of the guy who gives up 1000 runs in one start and 0 in 29 starts.  One of these days I’ll succeed in hounding SG into running such a study.

I think Baseball Prospectus’s support neutral value added tries to address this already but if I get some time I’ll see what I can do with it.

Their documentation leaves something to be desired.  Also I’d think that this would vary in effect from team to team based on bullpen strength/utilization/blah.

Their documentation leaves something to be desired.

I agree, although I think I have a more detailed explanation of it in one of their older annuals before they went pay and black box.  I’ll see if I can dig that up.

Also I’d think that this would vary in effect from team to team based on bullpen strength/utilization/blah.</i>

True, plus defense and park factors.