As the most vocal Gardner proponent here, I should perhaps acknowledge that Melky is playing better than Brett could be expected to in the best case scenario.

I like how “had some trouble” was a single, two strikeouts and a ground out for Mo.

I like how “had some trouble” was a single, two strikeouts and a ground out for Mo.

I know.  But by Mo’s standards, I guess that is the definition of “some trouble.”

12-10 without A-rod and with Wang forfeiting three games. And the best two records in the league are only two games ahead. This team is going to be good.

A Wang in the hand is worth two in the bush.

As the most vocal Gardner proponent here, I should perhaps acknowledge that Melky is playing better than Brett could be expected to in the best case scenario.

If you’re most vocal I’m second.  I agree with you, with the only caveat that it would be even better if Brett were playing close to what I expect him to (OPS around .700, defense a hair better).

A Wang in the hand is worth two in the bush.

What kind of parties do you go to?

After railing on the media yesterday for their recent anti-Yankee bias, Mike and Mike this morning on ESPN Radio were pointing out that all things considered (ARod hurt, Wang awful and then DL’d), Yankees are doing quite well.  Also, anyone that has the ESPN Radio Insider (does anyone really have that?) should download the podcast from this morning.  They had a hilarious “commercial” about Roberts’s book on ARod.  I think they guy that made the commercial reads this site…

I thought it was fitting that Abreu gifted the Yanks a run with his glove.  He owes them, what, ~40 more? 

How about Pena being useful with the bat?  I think we’re due to have a scrub hit well in limited duty for us (ala what Nick Green was doing for the Red Sox).

I think we’re due to have a scrub hit well in limited duty for us (ala what Nick Green was doing

I second that.

For folks watching, how good is Pena’s D?  I was puzzled that the Yankees didn’t give Berroa any time at 3rd base, but as far as I could tell, Pena played at SS exclusively in the minors. But it seems like Pena is pretty solid at 3B so far in the majors.

I agree with the comments on “Mo had some trouble. . .”.  And it’s not just Mo.  For example, it seems like whenever a Yankees pitcher gives up a walk, someone declares he’s “having trouble with his control” or some such thing.  Since when do we expect perfection out of these guys?  Rivera’s career WHIP is 1.02, so even HE averages a baserunner every inning.

In a similar vein, AJ’s start last night—4 runs over 7 IP—was fine.  It may not make for a stellar ERA, but he went deep into the game, never gave up a big inning, and kept it close.  That’s pretty acceptable.

In a similar vein, AJ’s start last night—4 runs over 7 IP—was fine.

If the Yankee offense is as good as advertised (so far so good), 7IP/4R is great.  That gives them a chance to win, and doesn’t over-tax the bullpen.  Some will say, “for $16.5M that isn’t good enough!”  But at this point how much he makes is irrelevent.  It’s how well he pitches that matters.

I think because of the game before that, folks were a little paranoid about Mo.

Considering how consistently good Mo has been, it’s basically been a career of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

A Wang in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Wouldn’t you have to have of bush of your own to make such a claim?

averaging 5.81 runs a game isn’t so bad when your best hitter is on the DL

And Teixeira’s current line is:

Avg: .200 vs. Career: .288 (-30%)
SLG: .367 vs. Career: .377 (-2.7%)
OBP: .371 vs. Career: .538 (-31%)
OPS: .738 vs. Career: .915 (-19.3%)

Not to rain on the parade or anything, but Melky Cabrera has had 55 PA this season, and is hitting .327/.400/.571; in his first 56 PA last season, he hit .319/.382/.511, and we all know how that turned out.

A pretty smart guy once said that anyone can hit anything in 60 PA.  Brett Gardner, however, has had 65 PA, so stick a fork in him.

For folks watching, how good is Pena’s D?

Very good. Berroa has only played one game lifetime at 3rd (which was just last week). I think the organization at this point would rather see what Pena can do for them whereas they know what they’re going to get with Berroa. Pena will provide great defense off the bench when A-Rod returns and with a little pop in his bat he could potentially replace Jeter at short in a few years (hopefully sooner)

It was nice to see everyone on the Yankees get a hit last night, I really can’t remember the last time that’s happened. It always seems like there’s someone left out of the party.

I like how “had some trouble” was a single, two strikeouts and a ground out for Mo.

Someone at the News must read this site.  They’ve edited “some trouble” to “little trouble.”

John Michael, some of those Teix numbers must be off.  Maybe the career SLG-OBP need to be vice-versa?

Berroa has only played one game lifetime at 3rd (which was just last week).

This almost sounds like you’re making an excuse for him.  Pena had never played third base before this year either.

Pena will provide great defense off the bench when A-Rod returns…

Is that a given?  If he’s truly part of the future, perhaps they want him getting 4-5 PA’s a night somewhere while keeping Berroa in the Bronx.  The better to build possible Pena trade value too…

Maybe the career SLG-OBP need to be vice-versa?

So does this season.  IOW, the comparisons are correct; it’s just the the terms SLG and OBP that need to be flipped.

RE: B-Man http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6788

Sorry, I flipped the .367 and .371 for OBP and SLG respectively.  Doesn’t change the story much though.

perhaps they want him getting 4-5 PA’s a night somewhere while keeping Berroa in the Bronx

Plus, he can be optioned while Berroa would have to be DFA.  It probably makes sense to let Pena play every day in SWB for a few weeks while they figure out how many off days A-Rod’s hip is going to need.

Pena’s never really hit a lick in the minors, and I wouldn’t expect him to sustain a major league OBP 30 points higher than his minor league career mark.  But if it turns out that you need somebody to start two games a week at third, then I’d rather have Pena than Berroa and let the kid give Jeter a day off once a week too.

with a little pop in his bat he could potentially replace Jeter at short in a few years (hopefully sooner)

It’d take a lot of pop. Anyone have comments on Pena’s hitting ability. From the stats, he hasn’t played AAA yet, but he has a respectable OBP up through AA.

I don’t know what his long term plan might be, but if his D holds up, he’s going to have some value for the club.

Pena’s never really hit a lick in the minors, and I wouldn’t expect him to sustain a major league OBP 30 points higher than his minor league career mark.

The last two years at AA his OBP was about .330. Not arguing with you, but that’s the main positive developmental aspect that I can see from his minor league numbers.

Also, I was happy to see that the crowd really had some juice in the late innings. Noisiest we’ve heard the new place, and makes me think once people start getting used to it, we get more night games, the new stadium can be almost as rollicking as the old place.

I was happy to see that the crowd really had some juice in the late innings.

SSS.

Noisiest we’ve heard the new place, and makes me think once people start getting used to it, we get more night games, the new stadium can be almost as rollicking as the old place.

caps lock broken?

Pena looks like he has an inkling of a clue at the plate.  he’s not just hacking up there.  that’s encouraging.

i think he has the chance to be a solid, cheap utility infielder.  perhaps the answer to the question we’ve all been so worried about has been in the organization all along?

is it really such a stretch to think Pena can’t put up the 75 OPS+ that a Juan Uribe or Alex Cora usually give you, except with vastly superior defense?

is it really such a stretch to think Pena can’t put up the 75 OPS+ that a Juan Uribe or Alex Cora usually give you, except with vastly superior defense?

You’d think a team with a 400 trillion payroll… yada yada.

Currently exceeding expectations:  Melky, Swisher, Cano.
Meeting expectations (or close): Jeter, Damon, Posada, Matsui
Below expectations: Teixiera, ARod (DL).

Tex & ARod will pick up a lot of the slack when Melky, Swish & Cano come back down to earth.  The middle 4 guys, provided health (not given at all, especially w/Matsui) should sustain what they’re doing.

Ramiro Pena will not ever hit MLB pitching enough to be a starter.  No way, no how.  I love da glove, though.

Ramiro Pena will not ever hit MLB pitching enough to be a starter.

I think we should hold out on these pronouncements until he turns 17.

But Cora is one of teh smartest ever to play the game! (This was a Gammons-inspired meme IIRC, when Cora was in Boston). 

Stylistically, Pena’s certainly more Cora than Uribe.  Re. the latter…talk about someone just hacking, without an inkling of a clue.  (Which isn’t to say I wasn’t for the Yankees pursuing him as the UI during the off-season). 

At any rate, I agree…Pena seems to have a decent line drive stroke.  Who was the dude who dropped a lot of popups when he had to spell Jeter for several weeks when Cap’n separated his shoulder on Opening Day a few yrs back?  (Not Eenhorn, not Silvestri…)  Anyway I think Pena’s better than that guy.

Early in the game, it looked like the Angels were going to steal bases at will, but Posada bounced back nicely later on by throwing out Figgins and Napoli.

I thought it was fitting that Abreu gifted the Yanks a run with his glove.  He owes them, what, ~40 more?

Speaking of RF defense, Swisher made a stellar running catch.

I’d put Matsui in the “exceeding expectations” category.  Seems unlikely he can sustain .900 OPS.  And leadpipe cinch to log some DL time.

Posada is certainly exceeding my expectations, which were that he’d crumble to the ground the first time he went to lift his arm to apply deodorant.  But I’ve never been a Pollyanna.

The last two years at AA his OBP was about .330. Not arguing with you, but that’s the main positive developmental aspect that I can see from his minor league numbers.

It seems we’ve had this conversation before about another player.  You just don’t see too many MLB hitters sustaining even decent OBPs without showing at least some pop.  The “knock the bat out of his hands” argument may have been overdone a little with Gardner, but major league pitchers do have better stuff and better command than their minor league counterparts, so if a guy is going to hit .290-.310 and slug .310-.330 on fastballs down the middle, they’ll eventually figure out that they should just go ahead and let him have his singles.  But you’re right that he seems to have an idea of what he’s doing up there, so there is reason for hope.

is it really such a stretch to think Pena can’t put up the 75 OPS+ that a Juan Uribe or Alex Cora usually give you, except with vastly superior defense?

I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.  He’s at 73 right now.  The OBP will probably come down some, but a few more doubles like last night and the SLG will compensate.  Still, it’s a long, long, long way from “solid, cheap utility infielder” to “replace Jeter at short in a few years.”

it looked like the Angels were going to steal bases at will

Abreu has nine SB and has yet to be CS.  I wasn’t expecting that.

Who was the dude who dropped a lot of popups when he had to spell Jeter for several weeks when Cap’n separated his shoulder on Opening Day a few yrs back?

Erick Almonte.

But Cora is one of teh smartest ever to play the game!

Dude, ya spelled “evah” wrong.  “Smaaht” too.  And left out a “wicked.”

This almost sounds like you’re making an excuse for him.

Nope, that wasn’t my intention - Berroa sucks. Initially, my point was that there’s not a lot of upside to playing someone like Berroa when you have a prospect like Pena who can apparently play the same position just as well.

Is that a given?  If he’s truly part of the future, perhaps they want him getting 4-5 PA’s a night somewhere while keeping Berroa in the Bronx.  The better to build possible Pena trade value too…

Good call

Rank of Yankees Starters at their position (by RAR via Fangraphs) -
Posada - 5
Teix - 19
Cano - 5
Jeter - 3
Swisher(RF) - 2
Damon - 16
Matsui - 2

No one qualifies for CF or 3B.

Another thing I found interesting is that Cameron and Kemp are the #1 and #2 CF in all of baseball with Cameron currently in the lead for the NL MVP race.

Abreu has nine SB and has yet to be CS.  I wasn’t expecting that.

Considering that he had 22 SB in 2008 and 25 in 2007, and that he is currently on pace for 54, I think he is due for a major correction.

If Pena could give the club decent numbers at the plate is it really that crazy to think he could start at the MLB level? No he’s not going to put up 30 homers in a season - I’ll look to 1B and corner OF spots to provide that. He’s a shortstop . . . and thus far he’s shown a great glove. I think it’s really too early to make a definitive judgment on anything but I have to imagine he could be a Michael Bartlett kind of player.

Well, the Angels like to run, so Bobby probably will make more attempts than he did as a Yank.  The question is whether more attempts = higher CS%

I like Pena as a BU-IF, really I do.  But he’s never going to hit MLB pitching.  .275/.325/.350 is probably about the best you can expect.

If Pena could give the club decent numbers at the plate is it really that crazy to think he could start at the MLB level?

no.

but that’s not the same as thinking he could start for the Yankees.

if JJ Hardy or Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes become available/FA’s, the yankees are going to aggressively pursue the best player they can get, since they can afford it.

Pena is 23.  Last year, at AA:  .266/.330/.357.

Jason Bartlett (who is a marginal MLB player) at AA (age 24): .296/.380/.425.

He was in the minors a long time, and compiled a total .297/.370/.415 line.

Bartlett, therefore, is almost certainly a better player.  And he’s marginal.

if JJ Hardy or Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes become available/FA’s, the yankees are going to aggressively pursue the best player they can get, since they can afford it.

Yeah.  In the unlikely event that Jeter bolts, his replacement will almost certainly be some kind of import (and hopefully one who’s mentally tough) who can be expected to perform at a certain level, not an unproven youngster.

Jeter is the 3 best SS in all of baseball so far this year and is actually playing very good defense.  Let’s not hand out his spot in the lineup just yet.  Can’t we wait until it actually becomes an issue?

well, Hardy and Reyes don’t hit the market until 2011 and 2012, i believe.

no one is throwing dirt on Jeter’s grave.  but he’s probably not going to be the SS in 2012.

I like Pena as a BU-IF, really I do.  But he’s never going to hit MLB pitching.  .275/.325/.350 is probably about the best you can expect.

Omar Vizquel didn’t top that until his age 28 season.  Adam Everett has only topped that twice (age 26 and 27).  I don’t know if Pena will be as good defensively as those two, but because of their fielding they were average or better players for several years in their career.  Also, I find it funny that a 23 year old will *never* hit MLB pitching.  I don’t know if he will, but saying stuff like that is the way you look silly later.

who can be expected to perform at a certain level, not an unproven youngster.

Jeter isn’t going anywhere - another position or another team - until after the 2010 season at earliest.  There’s an excellent chance Pena will be a UIF for the Yankees for 2 years at that point.  Though he may be “unproven” as far being able to play 160 games, they’ll have a pretty good idea of what he can do.  If Pena isn’t the SS it won’t be because they aren’t sure what he can do, it will be *because* they are sure of what he can (or can’t) do.

Also, the idea that they WILL bring in a replacement from the outside isn’t set in stone.  They’re trying to develop some in-house replacements, those guys are just down at A ball right now (and they’ve moved Lassiter to 3rd, though I’m not sure if that is permanent).  They *may* go outside of the org.  But if Cashman is still in charge, I’m sure he’ll make every effort to have the replacement come from inside of the organization.

I missed the last 3 game threads so I’ll keep the streak going as long as it can.

Right, Yankees would probably go for a better option but I have a hard time believing though that Pena couldn’t be a marginal player . . . but until we see this guy more (which I hope we do at some level) it’s too hard to say.

no one is throwing dirt on Jeter’s grave.  but he’s probably not going to be the SS in 2012.

It’s too early to tell.  So far this year he is hitting well enough and he is a +1.9 fielder.  It looks like it could be possible his defensive improvements last year are for real.  Well have to wait and see for sure which is why it really is way too early to make these claims. 

If he can be an average to slightly above average fielder I’m sure he can hit well enough to justify a starting spot on this team.  This is Jeter and they aren’t going to boot him from the team unless he becomes Bernie Williams bad.

Jeter is the 3 best SS in all of baseball so far this year and is actually playing very good defense.  Let’s not hand out his spot in the lineup just yet.  Can’t we wait until it actually becomes an issue?

I don’t think anyone was giving away his spot.  Not sure why some folks got so sore when this topic came up over the winter.  It will be a watershed decision for the franchise—albeit a decision that’s 2 years away—so it seems like a fair discussion topic.  Indeed, the better he performs now, the harder the decision becomes, because if he has 2 stellar seasons he’s justified in asking for the moon probably beyond his 40th birthday.

Jeter will be 39 in 2012.  if he is still playing SS, i will be shocked.

make that 38.

Jeter will be 39 in 2012.  if he is still playing SS, i will be shocked.

Jeter has even worse value if you move him from SS and I just can’t see the Yankees taking the PR hit that would come from letting Jeter play anywhere else.  They got away with Bernie because he wasn’t good enough to generate serious interest anywhere.  They held onto him until he was completely done.  They signed Posada to a top catchers contract that carries him past his 40th birthday.  Same with Mo.  I know a lot of people really want to think differently but I can’t really see any reason to believe Jeter isn’t going to be in the same boat.

But if Cashman is still in charge, I’m sure he’ll make every effort to have the replacement come from inside of the organization.

We don’t know for absolute sure.  But I actually think precisely the opposite, that he’‘ll make every effort to bring in someone proven and turn to a homegrown product only if he’ll have to.

This is Jeter and they aren’t going to boot him from the team unless he becomes Bernie Williams bad.

Booting?  Who implied that?  He’s a free agent after next season at age 36.  Hard to say for sure what the market will be, but he’s sure to ask for at least 3 years and at least $15m AAV, don’t you think?  Even if he’s still an All-Star caliber player, there’s every reason to at least worry about such a commitment.  Hell, there was serious concern about giving that kind of contract to a 32-year-old Damon.

the bernie example doesn’t really fit in with the rest.  when his contract expired, they offered him a one year, $1.5M contract to be the 4th OFer and after that a minor league deal.  that is kindof a point against your argument.

and i don’t think mariano really fits in either.  there are plenty of pitchers who have pitched well until age 40.

Jeter has even worse value if you move him from SS

Agree completely.  I think the ship has sailed on a position switch.  He strikes me as a lousy corner OF option.  And a lot of DH AB’s need to be held for Posada and eventually A-Rod too.

I hope Jeter does a Wakefield style year-to-year contract at a discount.  There’s no reason to expect that, but whatever.

the bernie example doesn’t really fit in with the rest.  when his contract expired, they offered him a one year, $1.5M contract to be the 4th OFer and after that a minor league deal.  that is kindof a point against your argument.

I think it fits perfectly.  Bernie was a below replacement level player for his last 2 years and just at replacement level for the previous year.  He was a starter for all of that than even then they offered him a 4th OF job. 

If Jeter is that bad these next two years he is going to walk.  However if he is playing average defense I don’t see any way he is going to fit into the Bernie category.  He might not get top dollar like Mo and Posada but I still don’t see any way he isn’t signed for at least a 3 year deal and handed the starting job for at least the first 2 years of that deal.  It’s just not the way the Yankees have been doing business with their aging lifelong stars.

We can talk about what would be best for the team from a strict baseball angle but that isn’t all that is involved in making the call on a player like Jeter.

the bernie example doesn’t really fit in with the rest.  when his contract expired, they offered him a one year, $1.5M contract to be the 4th OFer and after that a minor league deal.

Yeah, from a cost perspective, Bernie sucked at exactly the right time with (if I’ve got the years right) a 100-point OPS dropoff in the final year of his contract. 

My concern, again from a cost persppective, is that Jeter is awesome for the next 18 months and we end up paying through the nose for his decline.

If Pena could give the club decent numbers at the plate is it really that crazy to think he could start at the MLB level?

But he’s never going to hit MLB pitching.  .275/.325/.350 is probably about the best you can expect

I’m just glad he looks like the has some idea on what to do at the plate, gives good defense, and is the UIF.

I like watching John McDonald of the Blue Jays play. He doesn’t hit anywhere close to .275/.325/.350. Pena comes close to that, he’s going to be great UIF, and decent stopgap until whoever eventually supplants Jeter. But I guess we can see where Pena is by May’s end.

I think it fits perfectly.  Bernie was a below replacement level player for his last 2 years and just at replacement level for the previous year.

Bernie is also an example of a position that the Yankees haven’t found a suitable long term solution. Damon was destined for the corner spot after his first year with the Yankees, and none of the internal solutions have been the answer. Or us fans are still waiting.

Hopefully the post Jeter plan gets better execution.

They’re trying to develop some in-house replacements, those guys are just down at A ball right now (and they’ve moved Lassiter to 3rd, though I’m not sure if that is permanent)

Mike, or anyone else, who are these in-house replacements? If it’s A ball, probably 2-3 years before it gets any clearer? How highly regarded, and what’s the rep, good glove, average bat, or something better?

I find it funny that a 23 year old will *never* hit MLB pitching.  I don’t know if he will, but saying stuff like that is the way you look silly later.

Well, it’s not like we’re talking about a 23 year old Edgar Martinez or something.  There’s just not a lot in Pena’s past to suggest much hitting in his future.  Omar Vizquel only got the chance to learn how to hit at the MLB level because he started his career with a lousy team that didn’t have a better option, and couldn’t afford to go out an get one.  Adam Everett is bad enough offensively that he’s a marginal player despite his stellar defense.  I think Jason Bartlett is probably a tick or two above marginal, unless his defense isn’t as good as I’ve been led to believe.

Jeter has even worse value if you move him from SS

That sort of depends on who you replace him with at SS, doesn’t it?  Paul O’Neill’s bat wasn’t exactly stellar for a corner OFer for the last three years of his career, but the Yankees did just fine with him there because they were getting so much offensive production from the other end of the defensive spectrum.

But I actually think precisely the opposite, that he’’ll make every effort to bring in someone proven and turn to a homegrown product only if he’ll have to.

Eh.  I think a lot of it depends on when Jeter leaves.  The only player remotely ready now is Pena, and though I think he *can* hit well enough to play SS in the bigs - note I’m saying well enough I don’t expect him to approach Jeter - he definitely isn’t ready to do that NOW.  But in 2 or 3 years Pena, Lassiter, Angelini, maybe a few others may be ready.  Remember, the last time the Yankees went w/ the untested rookie at SS over the proven veteran, it worked out pretty well.

That sort of depends on who you replace him with at SS, doesn’t it?  Paul O’Neill’s bat wasn’t exactly stellar for a corner OFer for the last three years of his career, but the Yankees did just fine with him there because they were getting so much offensive production from the other end of the defensive spectrum.

Does it?  How does Jeter’s value (not the team’s overall production) outside of SS depend on who you replace him at SS with?  They might be able to get away with poor LF production from Jeter with Hanley Ramirez at SS but that still doesn’t mean that Jeter the LF doesn’t have less value than Jeter the SS. 

So if you don’t want to pay for Jeter the SS why would you want to pay for Jeter the anything else?

Well, it’s not like we’re talking about a 23 year old Edgar Martinez or something.

Of course not.  I just think that 1) the bar for SS is pretty low and 2) “never” is a long, long time.  For example, not that long ago I think a lot of people would have confidently said, “Alfonso Soriano will *never* walk 50 times in a season!”  He did it in 2006 and is on pace this year.  IF Pena is around Everett or Vizqual with the glove, a .700 OPS is acceptable.  Only acceptable on the Yankees as long as they are winning, or until he is considered a True Yankee, but acceptable.

My concern, again from a cost persppective, is that Jeter is awesome for the next 18 months and we end up paying through the nose for his decline.

The Yankees are going to pay through the nose for Jeter’s decline.  Period.  You might as well resign yourself to it now.  Barring injury, by the time his contract is up, he is going to be the franchise career leader in plate appearances, and second only to Mickey Mantle in games played.  He will also have passed Lou Gehrig for the lead in hits, and will be closing in on 3,000.  There is absolutely no freaking way that they let him put on another major league uniform ever.  Like sd said, keeping him might not be a particularly smart baseball decision, but letting him go would be a worse business decision.  We really are talking about a guy who is on the level of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle in terms of how the franchise represents and markets itself, even though he’s clearly not on that level as a baseball player.

Eh.  I think a lot of it depends on when Jeter leaves.

Is there any question as to the timing?

He’s not going anywhere before the contract is up.  He will almost surely seek a multi-year deal.  The only other conceivable possibility is a position switch for 2010 (creating a SS vacancy), but unless he’s attains unconscionable new levels of suck defensively this year, there’s no way they’ll do that to him in his walk year.

I suppose a position switch after the first or second year of a multi-year he hypothetically inks with the Yankees is a possibility.  But the later this move to OF happens, the more troubling it sounds.

even though he’s clearly not on that level as a baseball player.

It’s not clear to me that he is significantly worse than DiMaggio or Mantle after position adjustments are taken into effect.
Ruth lives on is own planet as far as comparisons to his peers are concerned.

How does Jeter’s value (not the team’s overall production) outside of SS depend on who you replace him at SS with?

Why should I answer a question that specifically ignores the point I was making?  This isn’t a roto league.  It’s not about evaluating each player in isolation, it’s about putting together a real team.  Pete Rose’s bat didn’t play at first base in 1980, but ask anybody in the Phillies organization if they think they’d have won the first WS in franchise history without him.

I think it fits perfectly.  Bernie was a below replacement level player for his last 2 years and just at replacement level for the previous year.  He was a starter for all of that than even then they offered him a 4th OF job. 

you are arguing that the Yankees are going to give Jeter a brand new, big contract to continue in his current role.

the yankees refused to do that with Bernie.

how does it “fit”?  it’s the exact opposite of what you are saying will happen.

So if you don’t want to pay for Jeter the SS why would you want to pay for Jeter the anything else?

Fan outrage? Tradition? Because he’s the best option in a weak FA class? No better replacement?

The Yankee can over pay.

Even worse value is not no value. But that’s down the road.

So basically (aside from pitching), the strongest internal solution depth is at catcher, with question marks on Montero’s D. Ajax is highly regarded, but he’s the only CF near term option. And none of the corner OFs seem ready to stick?

WeeklyJournalist:  I was at the game last night in someone else’s seats and it was a great game.  I love Melky and HOPE he can be a good CF.  We were in the middle level down the 1st base like a bit closer to 1B than the RFer.  Our section was absolutely dead and boring but a couple sections over towards RF were very lively.  What I noticed about the stadium is that all the less expensive seats are full all the way up the wings in the OF and the bleachers.  But the rest of the stadium is progressivly more empty as the prices rise, even the premiums in the upper deck.  The corridors are also packed with people throughout the game- talking, eating- so perhaps when people are done exploring the park will fill up.  But looking down and seeing all the empty seats all the way around on the field is depressing. 

They started randomly moving people down to field level during the game but it didn’t do much good.  What I would do to improve the Stadium atmosphere (and I’m curious what people think who have been there too):

-Let people sit an ANY unoccupied seat after the 6th inning. 
-Sell a whole lot of standing room only seats- there are plenty of places to watch the game as well as Mohegan Sun Club, Hard Rock, etc.  With more people watching the game from the corridors there will be less good spots to watch from causing people to spend more time in their seats.  And the place will be louder.
-Cut beer prices $2 so people get drunker and louder, or have $3 beer and dogs on Mondays-Wed.  It’s hard to get myself to buy too many $9 beers out of principle.  If I have to keep running for the souvenir cup I’ll never be in my seat.
-I’ve been to PacBell in SF and the food is GREAT.  The food in my section last night at NYS was terrible.  Mo’s Carribean stinks, the pizza is bad, Johnny Rockets burger was bad (prob much different than most JR’s).  They can do better- I’m prepared to spend a lot for food in the stadium (contrary to my habits in teh old stadium) but not for bad food.

So if you don’t want to pay for Jeter the SS why would you want to pay for Jeter the anything else?

It doesn’t matter what you or I want to pay for.  But I’m pretty confident that the Steinbrenners are more than willing to pay top dollar for Derek Jeter the lifelong Yankee, and Derek Jeter the first Yankee with 3,000 hits.

It’s not clear to me that he is significantly worse than DiMaggio or Mantle after position adjustments are taken into effect.

You could probably have a pretty good back and forth on DiMaggio, but Mantle was a truly otherworldly hitter.  I’d put him ahead of Jeter even if he’d played his whole career at 1B.

Mike, or anyone else, who are these in-house replacements? If it’s A ball, probably 2-3 years before it gets any clearer? How highly regarded, and what’s the rep, good glove, average bat, or something better?

Other than Pena, they drafted SS in each of the last 2 seasons.  I don’t think any of the other players in AAA, AA, or even A+ is really thought of as a potential starter.  Maybe Kevin Russo, but I think he’s more suited for 2nd.

2007 was Carmen Angelini, and last year was Garrison Lassiter.  Both were out of HS.  Nomaas LOVED the Lassiter pick.  Can’t say I know a *lot* about either one.  I seem to remember reading last year some scouts (in the Yankees) liking Angelini’s development.

Both are tall (Lassiter 6’1”, Angelini 6’2”) and have some room to add some muscle.  Lassiter bats lefty, Angelini righty.  So far Angelini is definitely a project as he hasn’t shown much abilty to hit, and fielding he has lots of errors (I’ll try to find his TotalZone).  Lassiter barely played last year, and this year so far has a .791 OPS.  I know Nomaas liked him for his bat.  Yanks have moved him to 3rd, I don’t know if they feel that’s where he belongs, or…?

Yeah, best, BEST case they are 2 years out.  More likely, 2011 one of them will play in AAA (maybe not start there but at some point), maybe being ready for 2012.

It’s not clear to me that he is significantly worse than DiMaggio or Mantle after position adjustments are taken into effect.

seriously? 

the difference in adjusting a 172 OPS+ in CF to a 120 OPS+ at SS isn’t “significant”?

Mantle wasn’t exactly a DH…

How does Jeter’s value (not the team’s overall production) outside of SS depend on who you replace him at SS with?

Seems that it depends on whether you’re looking at the short-run or long-run supply curve.  Player contracts can be considered part of capital allocation, so in the short run you can’t change them.  But, yes, if we’re looking at whether or not to re-sign Jeter, his value would only be tied to the next-best option at either SS, OF, or DH.

The Yankees are going to pay through the nose for Jeter’s decline.  Period. 

You’re probably right, MC.  But there are differences of degree.  Which is why a part of me, perversely, is rooting for Jeter to be good not great this season and next.

I wonder if Jeter, ever image-conscious, takes a slightly below-market deal.  It would be a humble/True Yankee/captain thing to do.  And it would be unbecoming for him to start shopping around a Yankee offer or even do a several-week pout a la Mariano and (I believe) Posada too this off-season. 

Either way, there’s a case to be made here for getting this taken care of this next off-season and not dealing with the back-page noise all through 2010.  Remains to be seen, of course, who has the leverage this winter based on what kind of 2009 he has.

Cut beer prices $2 so people get drunker and louder…

I can’t be sure of course, but this might not be exactly the image that the team is trying to project.  And wouldn’t better food mean more people away from their seats buying food?

But there are differences of degree.

Yes of course.  But in sort of the same way that we can ask what difference an extra couple of million a year makes to a guy who’s already got a zillion dollars in the bank, I have to wonder whether it isn’t worth an extra few bills to the team just to avoid even a hint of discontent in this particular situation.  It’s not like the brass gives a crap what the sabrmetrically inclined are going to say about Jeter’s net contract.

“It’s not clear to me that he is significantly worse than DiMaggio or Mantle after position adjustments are taken into effect. “

Quite frankly, that’s insane.  Mantle put up a 172 OPS+, DiMaggio 155, Jeter 120 (to date).

By all accounts, Mantle was a very good CF, and DiMaggio and excellent CF.  Jeter has been a below average SS.  I’m not sure positional/defense adjustments don’t WIDEN the, already huge gap, between them.

Why should I answer a question that specifically ignores the point I was making?  This isn’t a roto league.  It’s not about evaluating each player in isolation, it’s about putting together a real team.  Pete Rose’s bat didn’t play at first base in 1980, but ask anybody in the Phillies organization if they think they’d have won the first WS in franchise history without him.

Your point was completely at odds with the point I was making so I clarified. 

I guess it’s just different strategies on how to build a team.  It seems you agree Jeter and A-Rod are givens for roster spots and that is non-negotiable.  Given that, you put Jeter and A-Rod where they have the most value and build the team around that.  It seems that’s the best way to maximize the overall team output.  Reality might force you to make adjustments but for now you’d have to pencil Jeter in SS unless his defense becomes so bad that in moving him to LF the defensive upgrade outweighs the offensive difference in replacement player. 

how does it “fit”?  it’s the exact opposite of what you are saying will happen.

Because Bernie was offered more than he could have gotten from any other team.  Just like Posada and Mo.  If Jeter still has the ability to pull a 3 year starting SS contract from another team the Yankees will offer him more in either years or AAV.

Either way, there’s a case to be made here for getting this taken care of this next off-season and not dealing with the back-page noise all through 2010.

while you are right there is a case, i really hope this doesn’t happen.  when you get up to Jeter’s age, every year could be the cliff.  they should wait as long as possible. 

pretend that Posada was a FA *this* winter instead of last winter.  you’d have been pretty pissed off if the Yankees extended a year before they had to.

You could probably have a pretty good back and forth on DiMaggio, but Mantle was a truly otherworldly hitter.

Mickey Mantle through 1962 probably put up more value than Jeter will if he plays till he’s 50.  DiMaggio’s peak was higher, but he lost time early for WWII, late for injury, and retired (relatively) young.  If comparing career value they are probably close, peak value The Clipper is definitely on top.

Is there any question as to the timing?

Sure there is.  For one, there aren’t many middle-infielders that have put up decent numbers age 35 or after.  If Jeter were able to, he would be a rarity.  He could very well collapse later this year or early next year.  Jeter is a prideful person, and I think if his numbers were bad (and by that I mean batting average) I can see him retiring.  For two, at 35 he’s at the point where a major injury that at 25 he missed 2 months could mean it is a career-ender.

I think once a player hits 35 it becomes difficult to decide when it’s over.  Robbie Alomar is one of the best known examples of course; elite player at 33, below average at 34, replacement at 35, below replacement and out of the game at 36.

It’s not clear to me that he is significantly worse than DiMaggio or Mantle after position adjustments are taken into effect.

Mantle wasn’t exactly a DH…

And Joe Dimaggio, with a career 155 OPS+, having quite possibly the most power as a Yankee RH hitter plying his trade in the death valleys, isn’t exactly chopped liver either. And on top of that he was quite possibly one of best defensive center fielder of all time.

Jeter has achieved a great deal, and is a truly great player. But DiMaggio and Mantle did not achieve their legendary status because they were local media darlings. In fact, perhaps both were hated by the local media, and in spite of that they scaled great heights.

Jeter doesn’t come within 100 yards of their greatness, as great as he is.

Bernie is also an example of a position that the Yankees haven’t found a suitable long term solution.

We had and inexplicably passed on a wonderful long term solution. His name was Beltran and he was offering us a discount to sign him. We decided to keep the ghost of Bernie for another year and then sign a much older player with much worse defense for the same money. Have the Yankees made a worse decision in the last decade or so?

Yeah, best, BEST case they are 2 years out.  More likely, 2011 one of them will play in AAA (maybe not start there but at some point), maybe being ready for 2012.

Thanks Mike. The only thing I know about prospects are the ones that are widely heralded or you folks bring up.

FYI, TotalZone has Angelini as exactly 0 runs (average) at SS in 2008.  Lassiter is -1 but he only played like 6 games.

His name was Beltran and he was offering us a discount to sign him.

Yeah, did the FO ever explain that?

Because Bernie was offered more than he could have gotten from any other team.

ok, i get it now. 

i think it’s a stretch, b/c with that offer came the understanding that he was no longer a starter, but you may be right that no one else would have even offered him that much.

Yeah, did the FO ever explain that?

No but for some reason Torre volunteered blame for that one in his book.  Let’s blame him.

Have the Yankees made a worse decision in the last decade or so?

no.

Yeah, did the FO ever explain that?

i don’t know if the FO did, but i thought it was common knowledge that the decision came down to Beltran vs. Randy Johnson, and George wanted Randy.

It’s not like the brass gives a crap what the sabrmetrically inclined are going to say about Jeter’s net contract.

Probably not too much of a crap.  But I’d hazard that Cashman et. al. are more clear-eyed and hard-headed than the casual fan (and probably the media too) about Jeter’s skills and value.

pretend that Posada was a FA *this* winter instead of last winter.  you’d have been pretty pissed off if the Yankees extended a year before they had to.

Fair point.  It’s also the reason I think, even tough it ended up costing them money, they played the percentages by just picking up Jorge’s option and not extending him after the ‘06 season.

He could very well collapse later this year or early next year.  Jeter is a prideful person, and I think if his numbers were bad (and by that I mean batting average) I can see him retiring.

This strikes me as enormously unlikely.  Pride works in a few different ways.  He strikes me as the type who says to himself: No way you’re sticking a fork in me.  This is an aberration/off-year.  I had nagging injuries.  I’ll work 5 times harder in the off-season and be back.

i don’t know if the FO did, but i thought it was common knowledge that the decision came down to Beltran vs. Randy Johnson, and George wanted Randy.

Nothing against RJ personally, he just wasn’t one of my favorite players, but that sounds double bad then.  Eesh.  And I also blame Torre.

pretend that Posada was a FA *this* winter instead of last winter.  you’d have been pretty pissed off if the Yankees extended a year before they had to.

Yeah, no matter how good Jeter plays, he’s not elite enough where you got to lock him in. At Jeter’s age, delaying the contract favors the FO more than the player.

Have the Yankees made a worse decision in the last decade or so?

There was a pitcher they signed a few years ago.  Carl-something.

Jeter doesn’t come within 100 yards of their greatness, as great as he is.

I don’t have Win Shares handy - yeah I know not everyone likes them, but I’m not sure if there is a better system to compare DiMaggio to Jeter - but if you use Sean Smith’s WAR numbers…Mantle has 99.3 WAR, and that’s NOT counting 1951-1954, when he wasn’t exaclty a slouch.  I’d say he had at least 110 WAR for his career, probably closer to 120 (eighth all time, BTW).  Jeter is clearly Hall-worthy as he is 58th and moving up, but he only has 62.4 WAR.  I can see him *maybe* breaking 80 (which would put him up around Rod Carew and Eddie Matthews), but not getting anywhere near 90.

We obviously don’t have that metric for Joe D.  BBRef gives him 49.4 Batting Wins, and then you give him Replacement and Defensive bonuses.  I’d hazard he’s probably right around Jeter, maybe a little higher.  DiMaggio missed three prime years to WWII, and if he had those back he’d probably be around 80, maybe 90 WAR.  But again, these are best-guesses.

i don’t know if the FO did, but i thought it was common knowledge that the decision came down to Beltran vs. Randy Johnson, and George wanted Randy.

That’s what I remember as well.  How much truth I don’t know there is, but I’m willing to accept it, because it’s exactly the kind of thing the Boss would do.

No but for some reason Torre volunteered blame for that one in his book.

I’m only a quarter of the way through, stop giving away these cliff-hanging details!

He strikes me as the type who says to himself:

Tough to tell; depends as much on how he feels as anything I would think.  I think it could go either way.  Hopefully we don’t have to find out.

Re. Beltran…yeah they whiffed on that.  It’s not entirely unforgivable in my mind as Bernie hadn’t fallen off a cliff yet (though you could probably see it coming) and IIRC the rotation appeared to be in a world of hurt at the time—Clemens and Andy were in Houston, El Duque gave you only 100 healthy innings a season, Moose was in his mediocre stretch. 

Obviously the opportunity cost wasn’t as great, but Pavano and Jaret Wright were completely awful moves that sae off-season.

The further shame is that it’s not just Unit instead of Beltran.  It’s Unit instead of Beltran and Vazquez, with whom not enough patience was shown as he’s clearly a solid #2.  I wonder—if Damon doesn’t take him into the upper deck in Game 7 does the whole thing shake out differently?

You could play all kinds of what-if games…if Beltran, then no Unit, then perhaps no Posada beyond 2007 as Dioner Navarro would have been ready to take over behind the plate.

Given that, you put Jeter and A-Rod where they have the most value and build the team around that.

What if you the best player in the game is a free agent and happens to also play outstanding defense at SS or 3B?  That’s all I’m saying.

Yeah, did the FO ever explain that?

I know that any mention of Tampa gets you labeled a Cashman apologist around here, but George was still very much in charge in the 2004/2005 off-season.  He was focused on Randy Johnson and told Cashman to sign another pitcher.  He met with Beltran once, and that was it.  I think some have claimed that he didn’t even returned Boras’ calls at the end there.  So to get back to your question, when has George Steinbrenner ever felt that he had to explain anything to anybody?

I wonder—if Damon doesn’t take him into the upper deck in Game 7 does the whole thing shake out differently?

I’ve thought about this, too. 

I wonder if the FO spent any time that offseason thinking about how their manager had brought in a HR-prone righthanded pitcher with the bases loaded, to pitch to a lefty hitter, in Yankee Stadium, who had hit a HR against the same pitcher, in Yankee Stadium, earlier that season.  I know I sure did.