I’d say it’s pretty shrewd of the Braves to try to nab a non-Sabathia FA starter while everyone else is waiting for the first shoe to drop.  OTOH, I’d say it’s pretty dumb of the Braves to offer a five year deal to a guy who’s been healthy for a full season twice in the past six years.

Please, please, please go to the Braves.  I want no part of Burnett.

Seems like a bad thing for the pool of good pitchers to empty out before we have a set rotation.  Lowe and Sheets and ... are in a better position now.

At least we won’t be facing Burnett anymore.

Seeing as I’m squarely in the “Say no to AJ!” camp, I can only see good things in this development.  But what do I know?

At least we won’t be facing Burnett anymore

That might be a little hasty.  We all know what it means when a sports-writer publishes “Team X preparing an offer for FA Y”...next to nothing.

If I knew we could get one of CC, Lowe, and Sheets plus Pettitte for one year I might be unconcerned, esp. if “get” means “sign at a reasonable salary/length”.

[5] Sure, [3] is meant to be read with an implicit “if this turns out to be correct”.

Good.  Hopefully A.J. goes to Atlanta and Lowe goes to Boston.  Then if the front office lives up to their word they will focus on C.C. and Teix… which they should have done in the first place.

Speculation is that Sheets is considering accepting arbitration from the Brewers.  There has to be some contract between the arbitration value and stupid money that the Yankees could offer Sheets.  Does tampering still apply now?  I wouldn’t think so, since the players technically aren’t under contract.  And I guess the Yankees already offered CC a contract even before arbitration was offered, so what’s the problem in throwing some reasonable, but higher than one year deal at Sheets?

Then if the front office lives up to their word they will focus on C.C. and Teix… which they should have done in the first place.

I would hope so.  Though Cash has said that they would focus on Tex if they can’t sign CC, I also think he was planning on CC being wrapped up by now, and that he’d still be able to get another starter.  But if all the other starters are off the market, even if he DOES get CC, it still makes sense to get Tex.

Really, to tell the truth, I’ve been enteraining thoughts of getting CC and Tex and even skipping Pettitte, if the money savings allowed them to get into Tex more (and yes, I know part of the difference is total value not just next year’s salary).  Though I want one more pitcher who you plan on throwing 200 innings, I think having Tex on the team would mean more.

Does tampering still apply now?

No, only if he accepted arbitration, because then he would be under contract to another team.  I don’t know if your scenerio applies.  The thinking, if I understand correctly, is Sheets would go for the big one year deal from the Brewers, to try to get through a season injury-free and reestablish himself as a player worth a 5/75 or higher contract.  So I’m not sure if he would go for much less than what Burnett is going to be getting…

I would hope so.  Though Cash has said that they would focus on Tex if they can’t sign CC, I also think he was planning on CC being wrapped up by now, and that he’d still be able to get another starter.  But if all the other starters are off the market, even if he DOES get CC, it still makes sense to get Tex.

I thought I read somewhere that Cash said if they can’t get 2 of the top 3 starters then they would look at Teix?

Then if the front office lives up to their word they will focus on C.C. and Teix… which they should have done in the first place.

actually, every “word” they have said is that they won’t be doing that.

only us fans have said they were going to do that.

where on earth did the front office promise CC and Teixeira?

If Sheets does end up accepting arbitration it might be a sign that his injuries aren’t as minor as he wants us to believe and that the big money teams will find too many red flags in his obligatory physical.

could also just be that if he isn’t seeing the big money offers and he needs to take a 1 year “make good” deal, he would prefer to stay in Milwaukee where he is happy and comfortable….

i have no idea.  Sheets is a tough read.  so much talent…so many injuries.

where on earth did the front office promise CC and Teixeira?

They didn’t.  Davidoff said that they’d go hard for Teixeira if they couldn’t get Sabathia.  And even that was likely more speculation than reporting.  So it seems to me that the plan is Sabathia OR Teixeira, plus Lowe OR Burnett.  I think somewhere along the line this got turned into Sabathia or Teixeira plus Lowe AND Burnett in some people’s minds, which in turn led to: why not just get Sabathia and Teixeira, because that would cost about the same.

The Yanks should sign Plaxico Burress for a bench role involving pinch running, center field, and comic relief.

I bet he’d outslug Melky.

Not that this means a whole lot, but now the reports are Sheets declining arbitration. 

Anyone else feel like trying to freeze themselves in the snow like Cartman in order to wake up when something starts happening?

So Burnett’s next walk year wouldn’t be til 2013? Look for a string of 11-13, 4.20 lines.

Burnett’s last 5 seasons: 3.68, 3.44, 3.98, 3.75, 4.07.

if he goes to the NL i’d expect him to put up an ERA around 3.50.

Burnett is a much better pitcher than people give him credit for.

BRAA for the last five years(most recent first) from FanGraphs:

Burnett: 3.8,  12,  8,  6.5,  9.4
Sheets:  14.7, 10.5, 8.4, 12.2, 16.5

I guess I agree that Burnett is a better pitcher than people are giving him credit for, but I also feel like he’s a worse value of a pitcher than people are giving him credit for.  I just don’t see the huge, gaping difference between these two guys, and why one is going to get a 4-5 year $50M+ deal and the other might re-up via arbitration for a “show-me” year.  I know Burnett pitched in the AL East, and has that going for him, but only three seasons

where on earth did the front office promise CC and Teixeira?

Promised isn’t the right word.  As I said before I read Cashman said they aren’t interested in Teix right now that they are focusing on pitching but if they were unable to land 2 of the 3 top starters on the market they would be in on Teix.

I’m pretty sure I saw it on LoHud.  I’ll try and find the link.

I’ve got to ask from those who know our prospects better: what did the braves give up for Vasquez?

As I said before I read Cashman said they aren’t interested in Teix right now that they are focusing on pitching but if they were unable to land 2 of the 3 top starters on the market they would be in on Teix.

i think you are misinterpreting.

i think MC in VA has the more likely explanation in #16.

Cashman pretty clearly said that signing both Sabathia and Teixeira was “crazy” and something that the FO never laid out as a plausible scenario.

do we know the final names that went to the White Sox for Vazquez?

there have been various combinations suggested, some of them would make a pretty good haul for Chicago.

I always liked Javy.  I wish he got more of a chance here.  And for what it’s worth over the last two seasons…

Javy - 425 IP, 8.75 K/9IP, 3.72 K/BB, 1.03 GB/FB
Johan - 453.3, 8.76 K/9IP, 3.83 K/BB, 1.00 GB/FB

Burnett’s last 5 seasons: 3.68, 3.44, 3.98, 3.75, 4.07

Burnett’s last 5 seasons (IP): 120, 209, 135.2, 165.2, 221.3

Burnett is a much better pitcher than people give him credit for.

Sure.  When he pitches.  Somebody is about to spend $75M over the next five years for three and a half seasons’ worth of innings, if they’re lucky.

I just don’t see the huge, gaping difference between these two guys…

Sheets has actually thrown more innings and been more effective over the past five years than Burnett.  The problem of course, is that he’s injured now.  Or at least he’s perceived to be injured now.  The other difference is that Burnett just might have the best raw stuff on the entire freakin’ planet at this moment.  Five years ago, you might have found a few people who would say that about Sheets, but he really hasn’t been the same guy since then.  Even when healthy for most of this past season, he wasn’t all that close to the 237 inning, 264 strikeout stud he was back in 2004.

do we know the final names that went to the White Sox for Vazquez?

Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez.  Gilmore is a 20 year old 3B.  Rodriguez is a 20 year old lefty who struck out 45 in 29 innings in the GCL.

Toronto got burned on two out of the first three years. Burnett has pitched 200 or more innings in three out of the last 8 years with one year going only 23 innings. Looks like Pavano waiting to happen.

“Burnett has pitched 200 or more innings in three out of the last 8 years”

8 years ago he pitched 173 innings putting up a 4.05 ERA at age 24.  (An increase of 90 innings for those keeping track of delta I_ML.)  Conclusive evidence of suckitude.

Also, is 166 innings of 119 ERA+ “getting burned”?

Cashman pretty clearly said that signing both Sabathia and Teixeira was “crazy” and something that the FO never laid out as a plausible scenario.

I’m pretty sure that he more specifically said (and no, this isn’t a quote), “signing those two to the contracts being reported would be crazy”.  IOW, CC for 6/150 and Tex for 10/200.  I don’t think he said anything that will preclude the Yankees from making Tex an offer if they do manage to sign CC for 6/140.  If they then went 7/140 on Tex they would still be $70M short (total $$) of the “crazy” amount.

Now, I think we’ll all agree we don’t have any idea what Cashman et al are really thinking.  Nor - especially in this market - do we really know what Tex will be able to get on the market.  But I think this statement was less about *telling* everyone what he was going to do, as much as 1) lowering expectations of Yankees fans so that if they couldn’t get two big name FA he can go back and say, “see, I told you this would be tough” and 2) trying to send signals to Boras and other agents that the Yankees will *not* be overpaying for every FA.

Now, to have some fun with this process.  Who wants to start a pool on the date this whole CC mess is resolved?  Tie-breakers for who he actually signs with.  I have Yankees, on December 9th.

Sure.  When he pitches.

i agree with you, i was just pointing out that i don’t see any evidence that he’s going to start putting up 4.20 ERAs in the NL until his next contract year.

and yes, i realize SSF was being partially facetious.

This from MLBTR:

Massarotti’s source adds that Yanks GM Brian Cashman flew to California to visit with Scott Boras today. 

So who are the relevant Boras clients again? Manny, Teixiera, Lowe, and Perez? I like one of those names, maybe 1 and a half.

J, thank you for helping to create the sense that something at least appears to be seeming as though it feels like it might be kind of quasi-happening!

I’m not down with the ½, but the 1 - absolutely.  It was all a smoke-screen, typical for Cash!

I’m down with the 1/2 if it breaks down into 1/6 per client.

It was all a smoke-screen, typical for Cash!

I wish.  Odds are much higher that they are going there to talk about Lowe and not Teix.

I wish.  Odds are much higher that they are going there to talk about Lowe and not Teix.

I’d hazard that 70% of the discussion will be about Lowe, and the other 30% would be about other clients.  Whether Boras brings it up or Cashman does I’m not going to speculate, but I’m *sure* that Boras will want to talk about Manny with Cashman, etc.

The main question will be, what will Cashman say about the other Boras clients?  Perez and Manny I think will clearly be, “not interested at this time”.  Tex?  I’m pretty sure Cashman would like to have him, but not at the price Boras is looking for.  So will Cashman try to bluff entirely (“we have Swisher for 1B”)?  Defer until later (“we’re focusing on pitching right now, but may be interested in talking to Tex later”)?  Or even start talking some contract parameters (“forget 10 years, we may be willing to talk 7 if you are ready to”)?

considering that Boras will surely be in Las Vegas next week and Cashman could talk to him then, this news seems significant.

or maybe i’m just desperate for something to happen. 

or maybe Cashman is negotiating a 1 day contract for Boras client Bernie Williams.

considering that Boras will surely be in Las Vegas next week and Cashman could talk to him then, this news seems significant

I agree but I’d say it’s more likely bad news than good.  Meaning it’s more likely a “Looks like we are going to lose out on A.J. and C.C. won’t get off the pot so we are going to try and overpay to land Lowe out of desperation” conversation than a “We are now in on Teix” conversation.

“Meaning it’s more likely a “Looks like we are going to lose out on A.J. and C.C. won’t get off the pot so we are going to try and overpay to land Lowe out of desperation” conversation than a “We are now in on Teix” conversation.”

I see nothing in the scenario that makes this more then simply unjustifiably pessimistic.

Lowe would help this team.  i don’t really like the guy, but he would add a TON of stability to the rotation. 

i prefer Burnett’s upside b/c i am greedy, but Derek Lowe would not be a terrible signing.

I see nothing in the scenario that makes this more then simply unjustifiably pessimistic.

I didn’t say that is what is going on I said it is more likely that than “We are now in on Teix.”

It could be as simple as Cash trying to get a jump on all other GMs and doing his homework before the winter meetings so he can be prepared to make the best use of his time.

Derek Lowe would not be a terrible signing.

It all depends on the years and $$ involved, doesn’t it?

Gas is up, and so am I.  -Manny, late October.

In retrospect, Manny might not have wanted to tie his value the price of gas…

Cashman meeting Boras has to be a story if Sabathia going to a Warriors game is.

Maybe Cashman doesn’t want to be the last one standing when the music stops. All of a sudden Burnett and Lowe are in the news about having received offers.

The best thing for Boras would be for someone else to sign Sabathia.  That puts the Yankees back in the market for his clients.  I’m just trying to figure out what he could be doing to facilitate that.

It all depends on the years and $$ involved, doesn’t it?

yes.  i am working on the assumption that both Burnett and Lowe are going to get something in the neighborhood of $15M for 4-5 years.

apparently the Braves offer to Burnett is only for 4 years.  this may open the door for the Yankees.

maybe i’m just desperate for something to happen

Come on!  Khalil Greene and Jack Wilson have been traded!  Russell Branyan signed!  What more do you want?

On a more serious note, the Braves’ offer to Burnett apparently is 4/$60M with a fifth year option.  He’ll probably keep looking for a guaranteed fifth year.  Oh, and Rosenthal is floating Cano for Kemp.

Jack Wilson ha[s] been traded

Actually, that turns out to be incorrect:

12:14pm: Dejan Kovacevic talked to Pirates president Frank Coonelly, who said Wilson has not been traded.  The Tigers apparently made an interesting offer last night for Wilson, but the Dodgers remain in the mix.

(MLBTR)

All right, so Wilson is still a Pirate.  But Edgar Reneria signed!  The hot stove is burnin’ up people!

The hot stove is burnin’ up people!

Comma is your friend

/grammar nazi

Oh, and Rosenthal is floating Cano for Kemp.

That’s been floating for a month or two now.  Even though I’m not one of those people giving up on Cano I’d do that deal in a second.

yes.  i am working on the assumption that both Burnett and Lowe are going to get something in the neighborhood of $15M for 4-5 years.

I’ll admit I’m conflicted.  Part of my prefering Lowe is I figured at his age he would be more likely to get a contract like 3/42.  And given the way Burnett was being talked up going into this off-season, I thought he would get 5/75.  To me it was a no-brainer; less $$‘s, more certainity of giving innings (which Yanks need), and as the younger pitchers begin to earn spots in the rotation, he won’t be blocking any (for long).  Go with Lowe.

However - especially if the Yanks don’t get CC - if they are looking at similar contracts in years/$$‘s…boy, I just don’t know.  Burnett still scares me, for us having a player that barely pitches, especially as he approaches his mid-30’s.  At the same time, I don’t know about signing a pitcher *already* in his mid-30’s to a 4-5 year contract.  I really really really want them to sign CC and then Pettitte to come around so that hopefully this becomes a non-issue.

maybe i am being suckered in by the reports of Cano’s offseason, but i don’t think i’d do it.  but i can see the argument both ways.

I agree with you 100% Mike K.  Having to commit to either $15+ AAV or more than 3 years to Lowe doesn’t seem good to me especially if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season. 

C.C. and Andy please.

The problem with trading Cano is the same one we’ve talked about before: it necessitates spending loads of cash on someone like Orlando Hudson.  If they could sign a cheap stopgap until someone in the prospect pipeline comes up, that’s different.  But I don’t think there’s anyone anywhere near ready to step in at 2b and provide decent production, and signing a 30+ yo 2b to a 5 year deal just seems like bad business all around…

maybe i am being suckered in by the reports of Cano’s offseason, but i don’t think i’d do it.  but i can see the argument both ways.

I wouldn’t do it right now.  Part of the problem is they actually HAVE a couple of young players who have a chance to be ML average (or better) in CF (Melky/Gardner).  Yes, it’s possible they won’t even be replacement-level, but I for one think it’s worth giving it a shot.  And, their top prospect is a CF. 

Also, if they acquire another bat it will likely be a corner OF (moving Damon to CF) or 1B (moving Swisher to LF or CF).  They don’t have anyone in the minors remotely close to playing 2B in the majors, so then they would need to go out and sign one, which is easier said than done.  Really all they’re doing is trading one potential problem for another.  If Kemp is really that much of an upgrade over Cano, the Dodgers will be asking for something else in return as well (like Kennedy), and the Yanks will either be needing that player for the 2009 team, or would like to have him as another trade-chip.

Comma is your friend

And how do you know that I didn’t mean to say that people were literally being engulfed and consumed by the intense flames of the hot stove league?  Huh, smarty-pants?

Just saw this on the ESPN chat:

Spencer (Orange County): Where does Tex end up?

Keith Law: (1:48 PM ET ) If the Yanks don’t land two top starters, I think they’ll shift gears to Teixeira. Otherwise, the Angels are the favorites.

Personally, I think Keith Law is a fairly smart baseball person.  He seems to believe in the, “Yankees get two pitchers, or go hard after Teixeira” theory.  FWIW.

He seems to believe in the, “Yankees get two pitchers, or go hard after Teixeira” theory.  FWIW.

I think that’s a smart prediction, but isn’t it a little too obvious? The real question is, if they only get 1 top starter, then what?

I think that’s a smart prediction, but isn’t it a little too obvious? The real question is, if they only get 1 top starter, then what?

Yeah, there are two ways to read that.  The way I read it is if they don’t get two - meaning if they got zero OR one - they would be in on Tex.  However, that certainly could be because I WANT to read it that way.

Part of the problem is they actually HAVE a couple of young players who have a chance to be ML average (or better) in CF (Melky/Gardner).  Yes, it’s possible they won’t even be replacement-level, but I for one think it’s worth giving it a shot.

Not to re-hash the whole debate on these players’ abilities, but the first clause of the second sentence should give you a bit more pause than it apparently does.  If you’re trying to win in 2009, the risk of sub-replacement level play is not justified by the reward of merely average performance.

Really all they’re doing is trading one potential problem for another.  If Kemp is really that much of an upgrade over Cano, the Dodgers will be asking for something else in return as well (like Kennedy), and the Yanks will either be needing that player for the 2009 team, or would like to have him as another trade-chip.

I agree that they shouldn’t fill one hole by opening up another one.  I also don’t think there’s anything really happening here (except Rosenthal having to fill an extra column inch).  But just for the hell of it, how about Cano, Cabrera, and Kennedy for Kemp, DeWitt, and a LOOGY?

The way I read it is if they don’t get two - meaning if they got zero OR one - they would be in on Tex.

But again, if the one is Sabathia, then I just don’t see Teixeira walking through that door.  Especially if Sabathia winds up costing more than what they’ve already offered.

I think that’s a smart prediction, but isn’t it a little too obvious? The real question is, if they only get 1 top starter, then what?

Then they didn’t land two starters so they would be in on Teix. 

Honestly, this isn’t the first time I’ve heard this but I could easily see them appending that to…

“... unless the 1 pitcher they get is C.C.”

You’re lucky the local grammar nazi isn’t also a definition nazi.

If you’re trying to win in 2009, the risk of sub-replacement level play is not justified by the reward of merely average performance.

I’m not arguing that.  Using part of the “for the hell of it” trade you gave, if it was Cabrera (or Gardner) and Kennedy for Kemp, I’d probably do it (the only hesitancy being if they were about to sign maybe Tex).

What I’m arguing is that they have players who - offense + defense - should be at least RL in CF, but who have a chance to be average THIS year (and since both are fairly young would then have a chance to get even better).  At 2B, they have really NO ONE, at least for a couple of years.  So now you’re trading a likelihood of RL with a chance for average, for a likelihood of sub-replacement, with a chance for RL.  Or having to go out and find a 2B who is average.

I guess what it comes down to is I think Cano+Gardner/Melky > Kemp+??(Ransom?).  Not to mention any other players that went (for you’re trade, don’t know enough about DeWitt but I’ll check, don’t need another LOOGY).

Edgar Renteria got a 2-yr 18.5 million dollar deal after posting an OPS+ under 90 3 of the last 5 years.

/throws up in mouth

So now you’re trading a likelihood of RL with a chance for average, for a likelihood of sub-replacement, with a chance for RL.

No, you’re trading a plausible chance of RL with an equally plausible chance of a gaping chest wound and a small chance of average in CF, for a likelihood of highly over-priced average (ie—Hudson) at 2B.

“… unless the 1 pitcher they get is C.C.”

Right. Cashman has said as much. And I think we went through this a while ago that, while the AAV difference between Burnett and Teixiera might only be $5M-$6M, Teixiera’s contact length is a non starter for Cashman if Sabathia is signs.

So maybe instead of thinking about this in terms of 2 pitchers or Teixiera, maybe it should be 1 long contract (Sabathia or Teixiera) and 1 shorter contract (Burnett or Lowe) and Pettitte if the money is there.

But again, if the one is Sabathia, then I just don’t see Teixeira walking through that door.  Especially if Sabathia winds up costing more than what they’ve already offered.

If CC ends up costing more, I agree.  If not, I think they’ll step up their efforts for Tex, though it will be MORE difficult to sign him because they’ll have less money they’ll be willing to commit.  However, we still don’t know what the market for Tex is going to be, so…anything is possible.

According to SG’s projection, Renteria is actually worth about half of that contract, maybe a little more.  I find that almost as disturbing as the contract itself.

Why does Pete Abe run a live video chat? He’s certainly got a face for radio.

I take it “AAV” doesn’t stand for e.g. “Australian Alpaca Veterinarians”.

No, you’re trading a plausible chance of RL with an equally plausible chance of a gaping chest wound and a small chance of average in CF, for a likelihood of highly over-priced average (ie—Hudson) at 2B.

I think the main difference is I like Gardner better than you do.  As you’ve mentioned, we’ve already been through that argument before.  I also think it may be more difficult to just “get” a player like Hudson than it appears on the surface…which is why until you have that player, you have to assume something from within the system.

Average Annual Value

I think the main difference is I like Gardner better than you do.

Steve Goldman has a piece on Garnder/Melky. I don’t understand the analysis of Gardner. Yes, I agree, he could be a nice contributor if he can figure out a .350-.360 OBP.

But Goldman talks about Gardner stealing “some bases” and playing “good defense.” Um, what? Doesn’t he need to steal a ton of bases and play great defense to make that scenario (where he manages a decent OBP and basically nothing else) worth it?

It must suck to be a Giants fan.

”Australian Alpaca Veterinarians”

The new market inefficiency.

I think the main difference is I like Gardner better than you do.

Maybe.  More likely the difference is that I have almost zero hope that Melky will ever provide value again.  Did we ever figure out if he’s a super-two?  If he is arb-eligible and out of options, I’d say he’s a non-tender candidate.

The other problem I have with Cabrera/Gardner is that Melky is a switch-hitter in name only.  I’d rather have a right-handed hitter to platoon with Gardner.

I’d rather have a right-handed hitter to platoon with Gardner.

Baldelli?

Doesn’t he need to steal a ton of bases and play great defense to make that scenario (where he manages a decent OBP and basically nothing else) worth it?

Gardner stole 10 bases in 11 attempts on 141 PA of .283 OBP (he stole three more bases as a pinch runner).  If he manages a decent OBP and gets 400+ PA, he will most definitely steal a ton of bases.  The problem is going to be stealing first base.

I definitely think Baldelli is worth a flyer.  The trouble is, other teams are interested, and all else being equal, he’d probably rather stay in Tampa or go to Boston (he grew up in Providence, right?).  If you have to outbid somebody for him, then he’s just too much of a health risk.

he grew up in Providence, right?

Warwick, I think.

The other problem I have with Cabrera/Gardner is that Melky is a switch-hitter in name only.  I’d rather have a right-handed hitter to platoon with Gardner.

I have more faith in Gardner than in Melky right now, but he has *some* chance of still being a good player.  It isn’t unprecedented, but it is unusual for a player to decline going into his mid-20’s.  Rather than a RH to platoon with Gardner, what about one to platoon with Swisher?  I know Swisher would prefer to play just one position, but the RH bat plays 1B and Swisher CF against lefties.  If Gardner proves he can handle lefties acceptably, he can play full time, if not…

”Australian Alpaca Veterinarians”

‘The new market inefficiency.’

Too much info in google making searching hard?

the RH bat plays 1B and Swisher CF against lefties

Could we arrange to only face lefties in games that Wang starts?  That could work out pretty well, huh?

it is unusual for a player to decline going into his mid-20’s

You know what else is unusual?  For a player to ever hit well again after putting up an OPS+ of 68 in 450 PA.

How many players get the chance to OPS+ 68 for 450 PA?  Hmm, just checked Tony Womack.  Remind me why we got him?

How many players get the chance to OPS+ 68 for 450 PA?

593 so far.

And don’t be dissin’ Tony.  He’s the best hitting Womack in major league history.

Is that in the modern era?  What’s RL for OPS+?

1901-2008.  I’m guessin’ 80ish.

And in case you’re interested, there have been 88 player seasons of >=450 PA with OPS+ <=68 since 1995.

sounds about right.
most bad teams have at least one black hole offensively

Oh my god- on WasWatching (forgive me) Steve Lombardi reveals that he’s seen “League of Extraordinary Gentlemen” 5 or 6 times. That says enough about his blog.

Is Erik Bedard really going to be non-tendered? Why wouldn’t any team grab him?

That was on the “long-shot” list.  I highly doubt he’ll be non-tendered.  I’m sure Seattle could trade him for something.

“And in case you’re interested, there have been 88 player seasons of >=450 PA with OPS+ <=68 since 1995.”

Huh.  I wonder if that’s all defensive experts (a position-adjusted measure, or one with defense added would be interesting), or Pirates/Royals, or what.

Getting the data is sort of the point of being a physicist - and here one just sits and it appears, no billion-dollar machines or trips to Antarctica required.

Erik Bedard for Melky or IPK or 2 relievers?
I’d do that in a heartbeat.
Depends on how desperate Mariners are for salary relief.

The NYT bats blog says, “Omar Minaya’s checklist for the winter meetings, and perhaps beyond, looks something like this: Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Relief pitching. Starting pitching. Still, more pitching.

And with good reason. He has a bullpen to revamp and two rotation spots to fill.”

I don’t think I’ve heard the Mets named in the conversation about the competition for starters this offseason.  Do they have money?

From our previous discussion, via MLBTR:

5:27pm: George King at the New York Post has details on the Cashman-Boras meeting. An offer for Lowe is not mentioned, but a reluctance to offer Lowe five years is cited. As for the Boras clients beyond Lowe that were discussed, King explicitly mentions Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and Oliver Perez.

A reluctance to offer Lowe five years? Reluctance? How about.. “Five years.. are you fucking crazy?!!?”