“Therefore, the Yankees, in offering Abreu arbitration, are indicating that they’d be willing to bring back the rightfielder for next season at a raise from his 2008 salary of $16 million.”

???

Via Pete Abe- nobody gets offered:

“That’s right, nobody. So forget those draft picks.”

Bwa?  Isn’t Abreu, even at $15M or so on a 1-year deal, a tradeable commodity?  I’m failing to see the reason not to offer him arbitration.

I’m choked up here. Just need some time to mourn the passing of those potential draft picks.

Draft picks!  Must have draft picks!

I’m failing to see the reason not to offer him arbitration.

It’s got to be because they want a $170-$180M payroll. We’ve been operating under the assumption that a few more million here or there isn’t a big deal. It looks like it is.

You know what, I don’t understand this. You *know* Pettitte and Abreu were going to get signed. Maybe not Pudge, but Pettitte and Abreu would definitely find jobs. Hell, Abreu is probably one of the better options at DH.

And, Pettitte, well, I guess they think that they are better off negotiating a one year deal with him than having an arbiter give him $17M.

I don’t think Pettitte might necessarily get signed.  What kind of deal do you think he could fetch, or how much better would it be than a 1 year at 16 million?

Abreu I don’t understand.  He either gets an offer, which means draft picks. Or we keep him as a decent bat, and potential trade bait next season.  Sure, it might mean eating some of the salary, but that’s just part of the exchange in a trade.

Not giving Abreu arb:HUH????Makes no sense.

Yeah, I was wrong at Pettitte. What I meant to say was, he’s going to be with the Yankees or he’s going to retire, that’s everything we’ve heard. I’d probably put a non-zero probability that other teams will try to sign him, but who knows. I think the decision with Pettitte was that they wanted to negotiate a 1 year (or 2 year) deal with him at a price they thought was fair and not let the arbitration process force them to pay him $17M.

But with Abreu, who the hell knows. Certainly a team would have signed him, even with the Type A status attached. I don’t get it.

I don’t get it.  Abreu and Pettitte are safe offers.  Arbitration isn’t as big a crapshoot as people seem to think it is, and the clubs win more often than the players.  Either they know something about the market that we don’t, or they a) really don’t want Abreu back under any circumstances, no matter how unlikely, and b) want Pettitte to take a fairly large paycut, because I doubt that he’d take the risk of asking for a raise in arbitration.  He was the second highest paid pitcher in MLB in 2008 (tied with Zambrano, actually, trailing only Santana).  That’s what the Hendricks’ would have to try to justify in an arbitration hearing.  So it seems to me that rather than being worried about losing in arbitration, they must feel that the lowest number they could get away with offering in arbitration is still too high.  I wonder if Andy and his agents will get the message.

Or maybe they don’t want Pettitte back at all? I did read that they offered him something that he rejected, but if that report was false, perhaps they just want to pass on him altogether? Maybe they think he’s injured?

The transcript on RAB basically verifies what I said, but still, I would have bet that Abreu would have ended up with the Mets or Cubs.

Passing altogether on Pettitte seems stupid to me. Not with only a recently injured Wang and a limited Joba currently in the rotation.

I doubt they’re going to pass completely on Pettitte.  At least, I hope not.  I think they just feel that with him, the chance he goes to another team is small, but the chance that they would pay more in arbitration than they would in open negotiation is larger.  There would be no draft-pick upside, only increased-salary downside of offering arbitration.

Abreu, on the other hand, WTF?

Maybe Abreu has said that he will take arbitration if it is offered?  Next year at ~$16 and a one or two year contract next offseason might actually be better financially for Abreu than getting a 3yr contract in this economy.

We’re seeing asset price deflation all over the economy.

There’s no reason to believe this isn’t going to happen in baseball as well.

Right now the market for second tier guys like Abreu is undefined.  It’s very difficult to price those guys based on past prices.  The market for the Abreu’s and Dunn’s very well could be collapsing. 

Teams - especially ones that are highly leveraged like the dodgers - have to be very worried about projecting revenues.

Given that there may be “bargains” to be had in February.  There’s just no way to know right now.  But the early evidence suggests that there was little demand for Abreu.  And it wasn’t draft pick compensation that was scaring other teams off.  It was locking in money, especially for an older player.

How much are draftpicks worth?  What if they offered Abreu arb and he accepted, resulting in a $16M contract.  Would it be worth it for The Yanks to trade him by eating $4M to the Cubs for a prospect equivalent to a 1st rounder?  The net cost of that prospect would be $4M.  Wouldn’t it be better for The Yanks to use that $4M to go way above slot to get a first round talent in a later round?  I mean, the bonuses of draftees will most certainly be down and Hal can use Big Hank to let it be known in his typical sudden manner that they are going to be aggressive. Agents will figure out the code.

how does arbitration work, exactly?  Does Abreu argue how much he is worth objectively in terms of his skills, or is it subjective to the team he’s currently on.  Do the Yankees get to say things like “we already have a right fielder, so he’s not THAT valuable to us?”  does abreu get to say “come on, they are the yankees….cha-ching!”?  etc etc.

By the way, F-U Paulson for not letting Citi go under.  Not one taxpayer-derived $ should go to naming Shitty Field.

how does arbitration work, exactly?

Here is a nice little tutorial.  Basically, the arbitrators get to pick between the number offered by the team and the number offered by the player after each side makes their case.

good article, thanks.  Seems weird that they can bring up a team’s attendence, but not a team’s finances.

There’s no reason to believe this isn’t going to happen in baseball as well.

Except that baseball has never behaved like it was part of the rest of the economy.  Moneyball is a nice read and all, but the market for athletic talent simply does not work like most other markets.  There have been several recessions and economic crises since the advent of free agency in MLB, but the price of free agent baseball players has always increased, except when the owners colluded to depress salaries.

Anyway, I rarely criticize the FO, mostly on the theory that they generally have access to a lot of important information that I can only pretend to know, but I’m pretty baffled by this.  It looks like a one-size-fits-all solution to a lot of distinct questions that are most definitely not all one size.

OTOH, I had forgotten about the CBA change that means teams don’t have to offer arbitration in order to keep negotiating with their FAs, so maybe I should stick with not criticizing the people who actually do this for a living.

Wouldn’t it be better for The Yanks to use that $4M to go way above slot to get a first round talent in a later round?

But this only works if that first-round talent drops to you in a later round.  Having extra early round picks means you don’t have to count on the rest of the field getting scared off a guy for signability reasons.

Probably a concession in the CBA, although I’m not sure who was conceding to whom.  I’m betting the teams wanted to leave out finances altogether, but the players wanted to bring it up directly.

There have been several recessions and economic crises since the advent of free agency in MLB, but the price of free agent baseball players has always increased, except when the owners colluded to depress salaries.

I agree with your point about baseball being somewhat disconnected from the economy, but do you think it’s possible that the FA salaries have always increased could be a function of them being artificially way too low to start with, and that at some point there has to be an equilibrium?

Seems weird that they can bring up a team’s attendence, but not a team’s finances.

I believe the reasoning is that a team’s finances are always in flux while attendance is a solid number you can always reference from the previous year.

2 words: market correction.

the top guys like CC and Teixeira will still get paid, but the second class of FA’s could see major declines in what they thought they were going to get.

Abreu is coming off a very good year, so he wasn’t going to get a salary cut in arbitration. 

he was looking at a minimum of $16M if the Yankees offered him arb.  what would he have to get on the open market to be more attractive than $16M, 3 years at $10M or more?  do we think this market was going to give that to Abreu?

i don’t know. 

i don’t think this argument: “would having Abreu for 1 year at $16M be that bad?”  really applies anymore.  just 3 months ago it made sense, but i am not sure it does anymore.

the Yankees have no plans to bring back Abreu.  they have already bookmarked that $16M for a FA pitcher.  being forced to pay $16M for Abreu would crater their budget.

and i don’t think he is tradable at $16M either.  they’d have to eat a good chunk of that, maybe $4M.  that also hits their budget.

it’s bizarre, but rooting for the Yankees is going to be just like rooting for any other team.  there is now a limit to the spending.  it’s just that their limit is $50M higher than everyone else.

that’s my $.02.

Except that baseball has never behaved like it was part of the rest of the economy.

This is true as well.  However, when has the U.S. economy ever been in this kind of situation?

I can definitely see how the sports market could stay insulated from the downturn of a typical recession.  But in a deflationary period where prices for goods and services are decreasing, it could be much different.  It’s very hard to project revenue during a deflationary period.

No one would have thought even a few months ago that not all of the yankee’s luxury boxes would have been sold out by now. 

The new yankee stadium was designed around and built with the booming NY finance market in mind.  That was much of the intended market.  Just look at the prices for tickets and how they were set.  That entire consumer base has been turned on its head.

It’s not an easy decision to offer Abreu arbitration one way or the other, IMO.  It’s how you want to spread risk.

Abreu is a 2WAR player next year and that makes him worth $11 M. In arbitration he would have likely gotten a slight raise from $16M given their reliance on traditional offensive metrics. 

I could see him accepting arbitration.

when has the U.S. economy ever been in this kind of situation?

I guess that depends on how old you are.  I’ve lived through the end of the world as we know it four or five times.  I think my parents lived through it five or six times before I was born.

Anyway, it doesn’t seem like there’s really a whole lot of deflation going on outside of oil and real estate.

do you think it’s possible that the FA salaries have always increased could be a function of them being artificially way too low to start with, and that at some point there has to be an equilibrium?

Maybe in terms of total player compensation as a percentage of total revenue.  Then again, maybe not.  Or maybe it’s just that you can’t know where the equilibrium is until you’ve reached it, and we haven’t reached it yet.  It’s been a very long time since you could argue with a straight face that salaries are artificially low.  And the other thing is that there are a lot of adjustments that could continue after that overall equilibrium was reached.  The easiest one to imagine would be that the salaries of the truly elite players continue to rise while second tier players salaries declined.  Which I guess is what yup thinks is happening now.

here is the problem with Abreu and Petttitte: both Abreu and Pettitte were intentionally overpaid by the Yankees in 2008 in exchange for the flexibility of the 1 year deal. 

they are also both older players. 

this is a really bad combination for trying to offer arbitration in a horrible FA market.

“doesn’t seem like there’s really a whole lot of deflation going on outside of oil and real estate.”

And blueberries.  Skyrocketed, now down.  Probably orange juice, too.

<i?Anyway, it doesn’t seem like there’s really a whole lot of deflation going on outside of oil and real estate. </i>

Not true at all.

The consumer price index fell by 1% in October. That was the largest drop in the CPI in the 61 years its been measured.

The price of gas is included in the CPI but as a market basket of goods and services its very diverse and there’s no way a massive fall like a 1% drop could be attributable only to oil and housing.

For example - the CPI covers entertainment spending - of which baseball would be one.

Don’t know how old you are - but the last period of sustained deflation the U.S. experienced was the Great Depression.

Unless you lived through that or lived in Japan in the 1990’s then what going on is a new experience.

here is the problem with Abreu and Petttitte: both Abreu and Pettitte were intentionally overpaid by the Yankees in 2008 in exchange for the flexibility of the 1 year deal.

I think this is absolutely true. If both are offered arbitration this year, and both accept for a slight raise in 2009, then the Yankees are in the exact same situation next offseason that they find themselves in now:
A) hoping for draft picks
B) still looking to finally lower payroll
C) looking at the very real possibility that both Abreu and Pettitte will accept an arbitration offer again, if offered.
(Unless you can’t offer arbitration to a player two years in a row)

Based on what Cashman said on LoHud, he may well view this as the organization’s one true chance to finally lower payroll substantially. Thus, the clean cut (apparently) with Abreu, negotiations with Pettitte that start significantly lower than $16 mil and a Marte contract on a more favorable 2009 value ($4 mil from $6 mil).

And blueberries.  Skyrocketed, now down.  Probably orange juice, too.

And Maine lobster. Down to $3.99 per lb. Getting to the point where the state will have to pay the lobsterman to not go out.

Cashman did the right thing imo.  Last year according to Cot’s the Yankees payroll was around 209 million and if you add in the luxury tax 230 million total.

Next year the Yankees sit right now around 140 according to SG in another thread.  Now add in the 23.34 Million offer to CC and the Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold of 162 million for next season.  If both Abreu and Pettitte accepted arbitration at last seasons salary plus a slight raise the payroll with luxury tax jumps to around 209/210 million with the tax.  So this would leave the Yankees with only 14/16 million left to spend if they want to keep that payroll at last years level.

By not offering arbitration the Yankees now have the payroll flexibility to make move this off season in addition to CC.

Now add in the 23.34 Million offer to CC
It’s probably a safe bet that any contract Sabathia would get would be back loaded, probably starting at $18M or so.

Snowshoe- I’m in total agreement with your economic analysis.  I hope John Henry is getting slaughtered again this year after his commodity funds managed to get slaughtered the last few years in the midst of a commody bull mkt.  I hope Roush Racing goes bankrupt too.

Why would CC accept a back loaded contract?  Arod’s contract is not back loaded is it?

Arod’s contract is not back loaded is it?

it’s frontloaded, actually. 

that said, if we are going into a period of deflation, back loaded would be more valuable to Sabathia, right?

we are through the looking glass…

as for what CC would accept, doesn’t he actually need to receive more than one competitive offer before he can start making demands?

that said, if we are going into a period of deflation, back loaded would be more valuable to Sabathia, right?

I’m not sure that’s true.  It depends a lot on how long the contract is.  And it seems a bit risky to structure a contract on what you expect market conditions to be down the road.

Are you trying to be dumb?  Why would any player not want his money asap?  If he takes the Yankees offer it’s because he wants the money!

Personally I hope CC signs elsewhere and the Yankees sign both AJ and Sheets instead if the medicals check out.

that said, if we are going into a period of deflation, back loaded would be more valuable to Sabathia, right?

No.  Deflation doesn’t that dynamic.  Getting front loaded money is more valuable.  In fact, front loading the contract would be even more advantageous in a deflationary market in many ways.  This is particularly true at this current moment given resurgence of the dollar and the opportunities that creates - opportunities that might not be there in the future should the dollar start sliding in value.

Being able to front load (or at least avoid backloading/ deferring money) will be a significant advantage the yankee’s have over most other teams.

“Are you trying to be dumb?”

Chill.

The tax implications are significant - I’d expect the top bracket to pay a higher rate a few years down the road when the Bush cuts are allowed to lapse.

Two of my grandparents did very well as NYC school teachers during the Great Depression as their fixed incomes became relatively more valuable.  I wonder if I’ll manage to leave anything for my grandchildren.

I see the Clay Bellinger counter above is heading for 3k.  Bleh.

Man, this could be a depressing offseason.

Let’s hope not!

The Yankees have a 50-50 shot at bankruptcy the next few years. As more shenanigans over the [unneeded, $1.6+ billion] new ballpark will be revealed. Could get ugly.

Flabathia sure is eager to play in the Bronx, ain’t he though! Yeah, if he signs here, he’ll be a real happy camper is my guess.

The price of gas is included in the CPI but as a market basket of goods and services its very diverse and there’s no way a massive fall like a 1% drop could be attributable only to oil and housing.

The October CPI for all items less food and energy dropped a whopping 0.1%.  And food prices alone actually rose 0.3%.  So basically every bit of that massive fall is pretty much directly attributable to the cratering of the oil market.  And of course, prices of many if not most of the items in that market basket are extremely sensitive to oil prices.  Housing prices were actually up in October.

It’s probably a safe bet that any contract Sabathia would get would be back loaded, probably starting at $18M or so.

It wouldn’t matter for dan’s thumbnail luxury tax calculations.  That’s based on average annual value over the life of the contract.  The Yankees can’t avoid the luxury tax by backloading contracts or deferring money.

Being able to front load (or at least avoid backloading/ deferring money) will be a significant advantage the yankee’s have over most other teams.

It seems to me that they’ve had this advantage for a long time, but have never really tried to exploit it.  Sort of makes you wonder.

The Yankees have a 50-50 shot at bankruptcy the next few years. As more shenanigans over the [unneeded, $1.6+ billion] new ballpark will be revealed. Could get ugly.

You’ve got it exactly backwards.  When video of those empty luxury suites reaches the halls of the capitol, Hal will get a blank check from Congress.  The Yankees are too big to fail.

It wouldn’t matter for dan’s thumbnail luxury tax calculations. 

I didn’t realize that, thanks.

I guess we’re still kind of sort of talking about arbitration for Pettitte and Abreu. Granted, this idea wouldn’t allow the Yankees to save much face, but if they did offer Abreu and Pettitte arbitration and they accepted, they’d have non-guaranteed contracts that could be bough out in ST for 1/6 of the value. $32M/6 = $5.333M.

I think it’s moot for Pettitte as I think they were in a tough spot - they wanted him back but not at the price an arbiter would decide on. But for Abreu, you’re talking about risking less than $3M to net 2 draft picks, and if you lose. The $3M “cost” also comes with some insurance should anyone get injured during ST (Abreu would make a nice DH if Matsui’s knees don’t hold up.)

Same thing goes for Pudge, perhaps moreso considering Posada’s uncertain status and Pudge’s cheaper contracts. ~$2M for the opportunity to get either 2 draft picks or to have a insurance policy at starting catcher going into spring training.

Now, $5M is $5M. But I can’t see the sense in this unless, as we’ve speculated, the financial situation has changed dramatically. One of the Yankees’ advantages is to be able to do things like this because $5M isn’t something anyone was going to loose sleep over.

there is a clause in the CBA that outlines the conditions for cutting a player in ST and only paying termination pay.  you can’t just do it willy-nilly.

you have to prove a “deterioration of skill” or something to that effect. 

it’s unlikely the Yankees would be able to just cut Abreu and Pettitte without facing grievances from the union.

also, that’s kindof of a video game strategy.  in the real world, there is a 0% chance of the Yankees cutting ANDY PETTITTE in Spring Training and sending him home with 30 days salary.

I think one thing we’re overlooking in this is, if the player accepts arbitration, they are added to the 40-man roster.  Which means if all 3 accepted, the Yanks would need to drop 3 players.  May not seem like much as players like Shelly Duncan are still on the 40.  However, after that, if/when they sign CC, a position player, etc, they would need to drop more players off of the 40, and expose someone they probably really want to keep to waivers.

Basically, I think the Yankees may be valueing that roster-flexibility more than the draft picks.  W/o fully knowing how many players the Yankees are hoping to sign, and who they feel on the 40 they can’t afford to lose (and would be picked in waivers), I’m not sure if I can argue it.

The tax implications are significant - I’d expect the top bracket to pay a higher rate a few years down the road when the Bush cuts are allowed to lapse.

and this is an excellent point aside from the other good points others have made.

and i wasn’t suggesting that Sabathia would want a backloaded contract b/c of deflation, i was just mentioning it in a “isn’t it ironic, doncha think?” kindof way.  but it seems like i was mistaken anyway.

I just saw this article, via Chad Jennings.  Nice interview with Eric Hacker.  If determination was all it took to succeed, this guy would be a star, I think.

So are any of the FA that were offered arbitration going to accept?  Ben Sheets is still someone I’d be interested to get.  What does Boras do with Manny?  Is he going to charge ahead in the face of what might be a relatively poor FA market, or does he accept arbitration and take the $20M for one year and try again next year?  I’m guessing he declines, but I’m not sure what kind of market there is for Manny.  The Red Sox and the Yankees aren’t interested, and the Dodgers really are the only place that I could realistically see him winding up.

Another thing to consider is that this draft may be one where teams really, really focus on drafting players that they know will sign for minimal money.  A team with money to spend could take in a huge haul by picking the players that other teams won’t touch because of signability concerns. 

So, the Yanks second and third round picks (assuming they have them) may be equivalent to first-rounders on a talent-basis.

If both Abreu and Pettitte accepted arbitration at last seasons salary plus a slight raise the payroll with luxury tax jumps to around 209/210 million with the tax.

I thought lux tax reprieve for the new stadium folks? 

And yeah, I don’t really have an opinion on the no arb decision. I do have some impatience, I mean, if declining arb (or the risk associated with arb) was to put more money for FA, I’d like to see something happen soon.  Haha, but I’m sure the FO don’t care about my timetable.

[59]
That would be terrific.  If one were confident that it is so, would it not be worth making moves to hoard draft picks?

I thought lux tax reprieve for the new stadium folks?

No, they get to deduct a pro-rated (over 5 years?) amount of their portion of the stadium cost from revenue each year.  So the amount they pay towards revenue sharing will be less, but not luxury tax.

I’m sure the Yankees would like CC to accept like, today, so that they can start moving aggressively on other areas.  Unfortunately, CC doesn’t seem to share your timetable.

If one were confident that it is so, would it not be worth making moves to hoard draft picks?

Yes, but I think one of the things the Yankees are considering are the likelihood of the players to accept arbitration.  If they offer arb and the player accepts, they get neither the picks NOR the salary relief, and also potentially a player they don’t want (Pudge).

in the real world, there is a 0% chance of the Yankees cutting ANDY PETTITTE in Spring Training and sending him home with 30 days salary.

Agree on Pettitte, who I think is a different issue - they want him, just not via abritration. And probably about Abreu, who had ~$17M is (apparently, in this market) way over priced. And I didn’t consider the union grievance issue. You’re right, it’s sort of video game-ish.

How about Pudge? Certainly there’s less incentive to save face if you had to cut him as most Yankee fans could care less about him. And there might even be some incentive for him to leave once he realized he would be the backup C. Or you could explore moving Molina and keep Pudge, albeit at a steep price.

I guess I answered my own question. There seem to be a lot of “what ifs” and risks associated with offering arbitration.

I still am uneasy about the risk outweighing the reward. We saw how 1 draft year can change the outlook of the team in a short period.

Agree on Pettitte, who I think is a different issue - they want him, just not via abritration. And probably about Abreu, who had ~$17M is (apparently, in this market) way over priced.

I agree that Abreu’s arbitration number is way over current market, but I think that Pettitte’s arbitration number just might be even more of an overpay.  Only one pitcher made more than Pettitte’s $16M last season.  Only three or four will exceed that in 2009.  Again, I hope the Hendricks’ boys are getting the message.

Again, I hope the Hendricks’ boys are getting the message.

I think they just lost a lot of their bargaining power, to be sure.  The reported offer by the Yankees was $10M.  Too lazy to look up now, but I think when SG did Pettitte’s projection a while ago, it was more like $12M.  So if the Yankees approach it correctly and come up to $12M, I think Pettitte will take it, and most everyone would be happy (except those that really don’t want Pettitte at all, but that’s a different story).

Also FWIW, in his free agent ranking post, SG gave a rule of thumb value of $5-6M/WAR.  That would put Sabathia at $27.5-33M per, Teixeira at 20.4-24.6M, and Pettitte at $15-18M.  Things can change in a hurry, but right now it doesn’t look like anyone except maybe Tex is going to reach his supposed true market value.

Only one pitcher made more than Pettitte’s $16M last season.

The reason I think this is not as cut and dry as looking at what Pettittte made in 2008 relative to Santana, etc is because Pettitte was on a 1 year deal.  There’s value in not having to obligate funds on a guy who would be completely worthless if his elbow blew out. Now, how much value is surely open to debate, but Mussina might be a nice comparable. What did he get.. 2 years/$24M?

I forgot to adjust for aging, which would knock $2-3M per year off of long-term deals.  So on a six year deal, CC is supposedly worth somewhere between $120M and $168M.

There’s value in not having to obligate funds on a guy who would be completely worthless if his elbow blew out.

But maybe not as much as we commonly assume, if the value of the out years are appropriately discounted for aging and the catastrophic injury risk is mitigated by insurance (which contrary to popular belief, does still exist for at least three seasons’ worth of most of these deals).

RAB makes a good point - now we can sign Dunn and play him…. somewhere.

But maybe not as much as we commonly assume

I read somewhere just today - I think on Neyer’s blog - that the “official” discount rate is about 10% (on the AAV) on long-term deals.  So Pettitte on a 1 year deal is worth $16M (for example), but on a two-year deal he would be worth about $29M.  If I understood the article correctly.

RAB makes a good point - now we can sign Dunn and play him…. somewhere.

If by some miracle Dunn can be had for something like 2/20, just sign him and worry where to play him later.  If he’s still going to cost something like 4/60…I’m not against it per-se, but it may behoove them to clear a spot in the field first.

Ok, if Pudge is not offered arbitration when he is a Type A, then why on earth did they even think about acquiring him?

I don’t get this on several levels.

A couple factors, at least.  1) All he cost was Farnsworth, so that’s about as close to a bag of baseballs as you can get.  2) The market seems to have taken an unexpected downturn very recently, so it was probably assumed that he would be offered arbitration and they would get compensation.

Also, Pudge is type B.

The market seems to have taken an unexpected downturn very recently, so it was probably assumed that he would be offered arbitration and they would get compensation.

I think that’s the biggest thing.  This past summer, I think most people would have agreed Pudge would get something for 2-3 years, at least $10M AAV, somewhere.  Now, I’d guess he’ll get something more like 1/$8M, maybe with an option.

Also, Pudge is type B.

I thought the final rankings he was the last of the A’s?

I thought the final rankings he was the last of the A’s?

I think you’re looking at last year’s rankings.

ESPN has him as a B, Pete Abe had him as an A.  I think he’s a B.

Heyman had him as a B at SI.com also.  I think this is the official list:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-11-05-elias-player-rankings_n.htm

BTW, the Red Sox offered arb to Varitek, who is a type A.  I guess they want to insure that there’s no market for him, so they can sign him on a cheap, short deal.  But what do they do if he accepts?  He’ll probably get $11M or $12M from an arbitrator.

Ok, if Pudge is not offered arbitration when he is a Type A, then why on earth did they even think about acquiring him?

do you not remember that whole thing about Posada spending the season on the DL and the Yankees having their starting catcher hit .216/.263/.313??

they acquired him to improve their ballclub.

crazy, i know.

<i.do you not remember that whole thing about Posada spending the season on the DL and the Yankees having their starting catcher hit .216/.263/.313?</i>

And Sabathia hit .229/.229/.333; if do they manage to sign him, maybe they should make Molina his personal catcher and DH for him instead CC in those games.

Looks like the html is not the only thing I messed up there.  Sabathia also hit in one interleague game while still with the Indians.  He went one for three with a homer.  So his season line was .235/.235/.392.

I love it.

they acquired him to improve their ballclub.

crazy, i know.

I do remember that, but Pudge wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire himself. At the time, I thought this was a masterstroke for two reasons:

1. It potentially improves the ballclub significantly (never happened, but Cashman is not clairvoyant, so he cannot be faulted).

2. More importantly, it nets the Yankees draft picks if he walks at the end of season, at the cost of giving up only Farnsworth, who was going to bring in less value.

It seems like Pudge’s sucking has screwed the Yankees on both counts. If he is a Type B, then the return probably doesn’t justify the risk.

I would still have offered arbitration to Moose. I know he is not Clemens, and there is virtually zero chance he ever plays in MLB again, but that is just doing due diligence when it costs virtually nothing.

the return probably doesn’t justify the risk.

What was the risk?  That Farnsworth would continue to not suck?  I take more risks rolling out of bed in the morning.

“DH for him instead CC in those games”

Could they do that, technically?  Declare Molina the pitcher… no, wouldn’t he have to be on the rubber at the start of each pitch?  Any way around that in the rules?  It would be very cool, in a metamauchian way, if that could be pulled off!

Apparently not, you can only DH for the pitcher.  That is kind of silly.

I agree.  I mean, if they wanted to play the 2B in the SS hole and the SS in the 2B hole, effectively switching them, they could.  If it weren’t for the rules regarding the rubber, which ‘identify’ the pitcher, they could have done the same with the catcher and pitcher, no?
I realize that this is a kind of a ‘video-game’ approach, too, but weren’t Mauch & Martin and others famous for that kind of thing?

I do remember that, but Pudge wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire himself.

Pudge was hitting .295/.338/.417 when he came over.  that was a pretty significant upgrade.

but you are right.  at the time, everyone thought we were trading a Type B for a Type A, and the move was brilliant. 

i just thought the way you phrased that was funny, “if we weren’t going to get draft picks, why make the trade?”.  as if we, myself included, are so deep into the minutia of the game at this point that we forget that they actually had baseball games yet to play…

i was just messin’ around, no offense intended.

What was the risk?  That Farnsworth would continue to not suck?  I take more risks rolling out of bed in the morning.

That was poorly phrased. The risk-return was offer arbitration to Pudge v. not.

Ah.  Okay.  That makes more sense.

Actually, him being a type B actually lowers the risk in offering him arbitration.  Another team wouldn’t pay a penalty by signing him, so he would be a marginally more attractive signing than someone like Varitek.  This would allow the team to work out a mutually beneficial handshake deal to decline arbitration that doesn’t harm either party.  You could basically say “Look, we aren’t going to offer your arbitration if you’re going to accept.  Would you agree to decline if we offer it so that we can get a pick?  It does you no harm.”  It comes down to whether or not you could work that out.  Offering arbitration to a type A FA does do harm to their marketability.

Re: [80] - exactly.  And why in the name of Sam Hill would he do anything other than accept?

Because as the Ultimate Leader(tm), he’s going to show that he’s a team player and take a salary commiserate with his skills(or lack there-of).

Would you agree to decline if we offer it so that we can get a pick?  It does you no harm.” It comes down to whether or not you could work that out.  Offering arbitration to a type A FA does do harm to their marketability.

This is the part where a player’s own perception of his market will dictate the response. I don’t think a player will not accept arbitration because he has had some gentleman’s agreement. He is more likely to accept if he is offered one when his performance does not warrant a lucrative FA contract. And Pudge did earn some good money last year.

...a salary commiserate with his skills…

I’m trying to visualize this… something like a woman dressed up as a dollar sign patting Varitek on the head and telling him it’s OK that he can’t turn on a fastball anymore.

I don’t think a player will not accept arbitration because he has had some gentleman’s agreement.

I guess that’s what you have to determine.  From what I’ve read, Pudge wants to be a starter somewhere.  That’s not going to be with the Yankees.  I could envision a scenario where he refuses arbitration despite that not being in his immediate financial interest.  But obviously that was not worth the risk for the Yankees.

I think I read it here a while back- it would be cool if you could teach your LOOGY and your starters to play 1B. Then just keep switching them back and forth every time a lefty came up.

Although I guess that would be pretty stupid considering one of them would have to bat.

Pat Venditte baby!!11!!!