Even the guys with the decent averages against lefties aren’t hitting for much power.

Also, does it make any sense to play Shelley Duncan now? I can see a platoon if Giambi was hitting the ball just ‘ok’, but he leads the team in OPS+. He should be in the lineup everyday.

Actually, Matsui is a few OPS+ points ahead of him, but the point still remains.

Well, they need to rest Giambi some because he can’t hold up every day at first base, but I’d probably play Ensberg over Duncan at first base to help make a final decision on whether they should keep him around or not.  If he can’t hit lefties he makes no sense to keep around, and I say that as someone who was a big fan of his signing.

I believe that Giambi’s OBP is higher against lefties than righties. Sitting him in favor of Duncan or Ensberg sucks no matter the pitcher handedness. Not arguing with SG’s point, just observing.

Yeah, I guess “in the lineup as much as possible” is better than “in the line up everyday.”

it seems to me like Girardi knows he needs to find that lefty killer bench guy and he is actively holding auditions.  Ensberg played for a while and did nothing.  now he is giving Duncan the chance to grab that role.  he is also doing nothing with it.

Ensberg was a smart move on paper, but it doesn’t seems like it is going to work out.  this team needs a RH bat, but i don’t know where it is going to come from.

also, the schedule has been simply nuts with regards to LH starters.

counting today, they have seen 9 LH starters in the last 11 games.

Lane’s not exactly a lefty masher (career .231/.310/.469) so I don’t see how that helps.

If he can put up that line this year, it’s looking better than either Shelly or Morgan, no?  SSS’s and all that.

Also, anyone read the article by George King today.  Seems the reason the Yankees lost yesterday has nothing to do with the WOE after all…

Oh, and did you know the previews are showing up all bold?

Where is GlenAllen Hill when we need him. Remember how good he was when he arrived in 2000?  The guy really really helped against lefty’s and I got to see him hit a pinch Grand Slam in the 8th or 9th inning to pull out a come from behind win in Minnesota. We need to make some kind of deal for a decent right hand bat it appears.

Jeter was hot with the bat until Dan Cabrera’s pitch that hit him on the hand. Pete Abe thinks he may be injured. He has looked terrible lately save the hit he got on Sunday.

Are Olson and Burres really that good? I wonder how they fare against DRays and Boston? I guess Veras with all that tremendous stuff that Sterling talks about hasn’t proved himself completely reliable. Talk about adding gas on a fire!

What are they supposed to do about Melky? Do they just bench him for a week when he starts to slump? His slumps are absolutely dreadful.

Jeter normally kills lefties. Cano and Matsui are capable of hitting them better too. Consider that and the fact that one of the righty bats the Yanks run out there is bound to eventually take advantage of the situation and I don’t think the Yanks will be all that vulnerable to lefties further along in the season.

Oh, and Jeter obviously hurt his hand when he got hit. Happens every other year or so and you can pretty much right in a 2-25 stretch after that happens. I wish they would sit him for a couple of games at least after that happens.

On the other hand, his running looks good. When his hand heals up, I expect one of those 40-100 runs.

i guess the “trade” the Yankees can make is for Posada.  that will help.

What are they supposed to do about Melky? Do they just bench him for a week when he starts to slump? His slumps are absolutely dreadful.

I guess the first question to ask is, would anyone else (offensively) that they have right now be better than him?  Ensberg and Duncan so far, probably not.  Betemit now that he is back?  Sure, maybe play him at first and DH Giambi, which may be better offensively (and probably defensively as well).

Second question.  Do you get enough offense to live with Damon in CF and Matsui in RF?  I’d guess from Betemit, probably not; though giving Melky a day off here and there might be good.

Now, if Jason Lane comes up for Ensberg (or if they go with one less pitcher) soon, Lane may be a good option to give Melky a breather.

(and probably defensively at first base as well).

That reads better.

can Lane play a credible CF?  if not, what about calling up Gardner?

i do NOT think the Yankees can play Matsui in LF and Damon in CF for an extended stretch.

Damon is a good LFer, but can’t really play CF for more than a game at a time.  Matsui is a good DH.

Gardner is an idea. Can he throw? He’s getting on even more than he was at the beginning of the season so his numbers don’t look good just because of his hot start (he’s way outhitting Lane). This team can’t really carry 5 OFers though can it? Well, if it can carry 3 first basemen…send down Duncan (or execute him for all I care) and bring up Gardner? I wouldn’t be against it, mostly because I’m curious to see how he would do. It’s a lot to bet on 200 PAs but I don’t think this team is going to sign Kenny Lofton.

Might as well kick the tires on Gardner, even though I don’t think he’s gonna be much of an offensive upgrade.

it seems to me like Girardi knows he needs to find that lefty killer bench guy and he is actively holding auditions.

Yeah, I definitely agree with this, I think what I’m saying is that the audition should not be a guy in the lineup instead of Giambi all the time. Giambi has been hitting lefties well this year. Abreu and Cano have been the culprit with the extreme platoon splits.  Perhaps it would have made sense to just cut bait with Ensberg, keep Gonzalez up, and try him at 2B for Cano against lefties, but even that doesn’t make much sense because I’d take Cano and his 700-something OPS vs lefties instead of Gonzalez </thinking out loud.> What really hamstrings them is the fact that Betemit is not a great option as a 2B against lefties as his D there is questionable and he’s probably no better than AG with the bat from the right side.

i guess the “trade” the Yankees can make is for Posada.  that will help.

Yeah seriously.

Duncan can’t be close to out of options, can he?

Gardner is an idea.

Gardner also adds a legit SB threat to the bench, which is nice.

can Lane play a credible CF?

Not sure; looks like he has played more RF than anything in the bigs, but has put in time at all OF positions.  Arm seems about average…doesn’t seem to have great range.  I was actually thinking more him in LF and Damon in CF.  That would certainly be better than Damon in CF and Matsui in LF.  Not sure how much Lane would have to hit to make that really better though.

I’ve thought of Gardner as well, and something I thought of the other day but forgot to post.  Anyone know Gardner’s MLEs based on his performance so far this year?  Probably good enough to be a 4th OF’er.  But of course he certainly doesn’t add any RH power, which of course Lane does.  Ideally, they could find room to send down a pitcher and bring up maybe Gardner AND Lane.  Lane for a RH 1B/PH, Gardner as a 4th OF.

Could someone please explain to me why John McLaren still has a job?  Yesterday he left Hernandez in when it was obvious the kid had nothing left, had him throw 112 pitches and waited just long enough for the game to get completely out of hand before pulling him.

Yesterday he left Hernandez in when it was obvious the kid had nothing left, had him throw 112 pitches and waited just long enough for the game to get completely out of hand before pulling him.

Maybe his opponent in his fantasy league has Felix?

Ideally, they could find room to send down a pitcher and bring up maybe Gardner AND Lane.  Lane for a RH 1B/PH, Gardner as a 4th OF.

Isn’t the bullpen already a little shorthanded with basically 6 starters (if you now count Joba as a starter)? If anything, I would hope a roster shake up would be to make the bench a little more efficient. Ensberg seems like the odd man out to me.

Isn’t the bullpen already a little shorthanded with basically 6 starters

Well, as I said, ideally.  If the starters continue to pitch well - and possibly even better when Joba goes in the rotation - perhaps they can go back to a 6 man pen, and have 5 players on the bench.  Probably won’t happen for a few weeks, if at all, but would be nice.

I agree the shakeup will be useful, but with a 4 man bench (and one of them is Moeller until Posada comes back), there’s only so much shaking you can do.  Actually, there are only two parts: Ensberg and Duncan.  Ensberg is indeed out, and I think definitely if Lane has an out in his contract for the end of May he’ll come up for Ensberg (unless of course this week Ensberg hits 3 or 4 home runs). 

I don’t think they’ll be willing to send Duncan down yet.  #1 they want to give him more time, and #2 they still want that RH bat.  Now in a couple of weeks if Posada comes back and hits like we expect him too - and also if Lane is putting up decent numbers against lefties - Duncan may become expendable as well.

Weren’t the Dodgers looking for a 3B at the beginning of the year? Makes you wonder what we could have gotten for Ensberg.

Splits show why Matsui should never be the odd man out against a lefty.  Isn’t there some halfway decent, somewhat overpaid, aging but still dangerous, righty that can be had on the cheap?  Is it Cash’s fault that the bullepn lacks a lefty and the bench lacks a righty who can hit?

I’m not convinced that the team’s woes stem from not having a lefty in the bullpen.

Makes you wonder what we could have gotten for Ensberg.

i could be wrong, but i don’t think you can trade a FA that you just signed until May 15th or something like that.

i doubt there was ever a scenario where the yankees could have gotten anything for Ensberg.

Is it Cash’s fault that the bullepn lacks a lefty and the bench lacks a righty who can hit?

i don’t fault Cashman for Ensberg.  all of the numbers say even if he isn’t doing anything else, he should still be hitting lefties.

Yankees 26th out of 30 teams in OPS against lefties

i don’t fault Cashman for Ensberg.

And if you think about it, Duncan should be doing better as well.  Maybe not a lot better, but better.

As for a lefty in the pen…I think we all got spoiled with just how good Mike Stanton (version 1) was for the Yankees.  There really aren’t that many lefty relievers that are that good.  At least, not ones who don’t become closers.  Cashman did TRY to get BJ Ryan, but Ryan was only interested in closing (IIRC).  Perhaps before the year is out Igawa or Wright are converted to the pen and given a chance.  Besides that…I don’t even know if they have anyone on the farm that would fit the bill.

Yankees 26th out of 30 teams in OPS against lefties

ARod being back will help change that, and when Posada comes back that will help as well.  They may never be top 10 against lefties, but can probably be in the upper-half.

i could be wrong, but i don’t think you can trade a FA that you just signed until May 15th or something like that.

Yeah you may be right. But wasn’t it a minor league deal? Not sure if that matters.

Yankees 26th out of 30 teams in OPS against lefties

right, and a lot of that has to do with Posada and A-Rod missing huge chunks of time.

those are 2 irreplacable players. 

the rest of it has to do with the STARTERS who have long, established track records of being able to hit lefties at least decently not getting it done.

even if the Yankees had a solid RH bat off the bench, where would they rank, 23rd? 

if you think about it, the bench guy would be there to spell Giambi and maybe Abreu.  yet Giambi is NOT part of the problem.

i agree they need another RH bat, but what they REALLY need is for their regulars to start hitting to their career lines against LHP.

right, and a lot of that has to do with Posada and A-Rod missing huge chunks of time.

Jeter, too. He’s been bad since he got hit on the hand.

Ensberg vs. LHP:

career: .278/.400/.512
2007: .257/.345/.486
2006: .245/.463/.553
2005: .299/.411/.575
2004: .282/.351/.408
2003: .316/.429/.592

Chase Wright is out with shoulder stiffness, although the Yanks, being the Yanks, are mum on whether it’s serious.  In any event, the pen doesn’t necessarily need a lefty (the Angels have had great pens for years without one). Effective relievers in general will do the trick.

As for Gardner, he has more range than Melky (he’s an 80 on the 20-80 speed scale) but supposedly has an average arm.  On the other hand, it would be a mistake to bring up a 24 year old who is still developing just to sit him on the bench.  If the Yanks want a speedy 4th OF they should consider Justin Christain.  In any event, Melky is going to get at least another month to right the ship before the Yanks begin considering alternatives.

I’m crossing my fingers with Posada that there won’t be any further setbacks and I agree much as I would like Shelley to have succeeded its past time to give Ensberg some more ABs(not that I’m overly optimistic about that either.)

anyone read the article by George King today.

As I watched yesterday’s game, I wondered out loud who would be the first scribe to pen a piece about how not having Joba to pitch the eighth inning was the cause of a loss where they scored none and allowed six in the first seven innings.  Now I wonder why I wondered—it had to be King, right?

The press is going to whine about this ad infinitum.  On the YES website, Phil Pepe posted a ridiculous piece calling Joba’s transition a mistake.  Even if he wins 15 games this season, these guys are going to moan and groan about him not being there every time the team loses a lead.

I think what I’m saying is that the audition should not be a guy in the lineup instead of Giambi all the time.

It hasn’t been.  Giambi started against Burres on Thursday and Bedard on Friday; Abreu sat Thursday, Damon on Friday.  I’d say Girardi was doing a pretty good job of spreading the days off around.

But wasn’t it a minor league deal? Not sure if that matters.

It matters, but not in the way you’re wondering.  It matters because Ensburg was an NRI to ST—any team could have had him for nothing, so why would any team that passed on him turn around and trade something for him?

Also, to answer a couple of other questions: a newly signed FA can’t be traded until June 15, and Shelley Duncan is most definitely not out of options.

On the other hand, it would be a mistake to bring up a 24 year old who is still developing just to sit him on the bench.

I agree; if they bring Gardner up they should plan on using him somewhat regularly, say 2 of every 5 games start him in either CF or LF, and also try to work him into the game when appropriate (blowouts, late, etc).  If they just want a speedy-runner/better defensive replacement on the bench, it should be Christian.  At this point I don’t think they want either; they just want to start hitting better!

but what they REALLY need is for their regulars to start hitting to their career lines against LHP.

Blasphome (sp)!  It wouldn’t be Cashman’s fault if everyone did what they were supposed to!

Shelley Duncan is most definitely not out of options.

Certainly not, and if they had someone better - someone who hits RH for power and can play 1st base - better on the farm right now I’m sure he’d be in Scranton.  But since he’s already proven he can hit AAA pitching, I think they’ll give him at least a few more weeks before sending him down.

It’s blasphemy, Mike.  And I wasn’t commenting one way or the other on whether Duncan should be sent down, just responding to an earlier comment about whether or not he had options left.

“It’s blasphemy”

[pedantry]It’s “blasphemy”.[/pedantry]

I’m starting to think that Pedro Cerrano, oops I mean Shelley Duncan, is not all that he’s cracked up to be.

#44 - thanks (for the spelling).  I started a new job and for now at least I’m stuck with IE 6, which doesn’t seem to have the nice spell-checker FireFox does.  And yes, I knew you were just responding; I was actually adding to your comment.  Whoever asked that question to begin with probably is interested in sending him down.  Sorry if I sounded argumentative.

[pedantry]It’s “blasphemy”.[/pedantry]

My apologies.

I’m stuck with IE 6

My condolences.

Sorry if I sounded argumentative.

You didn’t.  I just wanted to be sure that I didn’t sound like I was taking a side WRT young master Shelley.

Oh and BTW, Cy Young was a righty, wasn’t he?

[ueberpedantry] Actually, come to think of it, I should have said, ‘’‘It’s “It’s ‘blasphemy’”.’‘’ [/uerberpedantry]  Not entirely sure about the position of the period here in the English-style punctuation I prefer.

Ooh, the site’s parser or my browser is doing something evil to my punctuation above.

Abraham has posted a lineup for tonight:

Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui LF
Giambi DH
Betemit 1B
Cano 2B
Molina C
Kennedy RHP

So Melky gets a night off and all of the lefties start against the lefty.  Of course, Betemit really needs to stop pretending that he’s a switch hitter, but that’s another matter entirely.

For some stupid freaking reason, I think this is Betemit’s year, even with the injuries. After the eye thing, he was hitting well, getting him regular playing time, even against lefties will pay off I think.

It is getting awfully annoying seeing these bench guys consistently underperform when they join the Yankees

(This is the biggest one - what the fuck, Rondell?)

Rondell White - OPS+ year before he joined the Yankees - 134
Rondell White - OPS+ while a Yankee - 76
OPS+ year after he left the Yankees - 120

David Dellucci - OPS+ year before he joined the Yankees - 83
Daid Dellucci - OPS+ while a Yankee - 39
OPS+ year after he left the Yankees - 96 (then 126 and 123 the next two years)

Morgan Ensberg - OPS+ year before he joined the Yankees - 88
Morgan Ensberg - OPS+ while a Yankee - 44

Wilson Betemit - OPS+ half year before he joined the Yankees - 110
Wilson Betemit - OPS+ while a Yankee - somewhere around 90

John Vander Wal - OPS+ year before he joined the Yankees - 108
John Vander Wal - OPS+ while a Yankee - 99
John Vander Wal - OPS+ year after he left the Yankees - 113

Lofton doesn’t count, as the Yankees screwed him over (but he did drop 10 points in OPS+ then gain them right back the next year) too much.

Who else is there to look at?

Miguel Cairo did go from a 74 to a 100 back to 64 after leaving the Yankees, so they definitely have that one in their plus column.

Damon and Abreu have BASICALLY been the same since they’ve joined the team, except for some expected decline. Same with Giambi. A-Rod has been the same, only without the decline - because he is awesome.

Who else should I be looking at?

(I just tossed in the starters at the end, just to note that for their STARTER pick-ups, the Yanks have done okay - it’s just the bench players that have SUCKED).

...even against lefties…

.233/.280/.349 (tOPS+ = 64)

Yeah, it’s a pretty small sample, but he’s Neifi Perez against lefties.  Except Neifi actually hit better against lefties than righties.

The Yankees didn’t pick up Rondell White to be a bench guy.  They got him to be the every day left fielder.  He sucked because he was hurt all the time, but tried to play through the injuries to shed the “Ron-DL” rep.

<sarcasm>Of course, it was just such a complete and total shock that he would get injured that it’s really, really, really unfair to criticize that signing.</sarcasm>

Just for some more fun, check these out:

Neagle ERA+ half the year as a Red - 134
Neagle ERA+ half the year as a Yankee - 83

Vazquez ERA+ last year as an Expo - 139
Vazquez ERA+ as a Yankee - 92

Johnson ERA+ last year as a Diamondback - 177
Johnson ERA+s in his two years as a Yankee - 112 and 90

Pavano ERA+ last year as a Diamondback - 137
Pavano ERA+ in his half season as a Yankee - 89

Wright ERA+ last year as a Brave - 131
Wright ERA+s in his two years as a Yankee - 70 and 101

Weaver ERA+ half the year as a Tiger - 133
Weaver ERA+ as a Yankee - 109 that half season, then 73 the next season

Moose was good. And Clemens and Wells and Cone. But no one they’ve picked up in the past five years or so (except for Lieber, who pitched exactly the same as he did before the Yankees and after the Yankees - about a 105, which is okay, but not great either).

But wow - that’s some bullshit right there.

Obviously, that should be Marlin not Diamondback for Pavano.

Why did you not include Shawn Chacon’s Colorado/New York splits for 2005?

Which is precisely why it’s a much better idea to be patient and develop from within, rather than go after pricey free agents all the time…

In case you are curious, they are 117 ERA+ for Colorado and +149 ERA plus for the Yanks.

IE, what about he-who-shall-not-be-named (aka Kevin Brown)?

D’oh!!!

Thanks, IE!!

Yeah, toss in Chacon and Small there, too, as positive.

But you know what (and I know this is a flimsy excuse), in both cases, those weren’t really like the others, per se. Both players were readily available talent (Chacon was cut and Small was a minor league free agent).

But yeah, they got big-time lucky with those two guys (Small was a 50 to a 132 back to 53 his second year in New York).

Kevin Brown?

I don’t recall a Kevin Brown ever pitching for the Yankees.

But if there WAS such a player, it would be like this

Brown ERA+ last year at whatever team this fictional player pitched for - 169
Brown ERA+ in his two theoretical seasons as a Yankee - 110 and 65

Chacon wasn’t cut.  The Yanks dealt two relievers for him.  One of whom, Ramon Ramirez, now pitches for the Royals and shut them down when they played in Kansas City.

You can’t just look at a player’s performance in the year preceding their becoming a Yankee and their actual Yankee performance if you want to really assess whether someone was disappointing.  You should look at what their projections would have been as a Yankee (adjusting for age, league differences, defense, etc.,) and see if they really did underperform.

Pavano’s a perfect example of this.  Saying he was a 137 ERA+ pitcher ignores the fact that he was really not expected to be any better than league average by most objective projection systems.  That he couldn’t stay healthy is of course a whole different issue.

Brown’s FIP was much better than his ERA that bad year if I remember correctly.

Any complaining about bad Yankee luck with regards to pitchers has to include the fact that the Yanks ran out awful defenders up the middle and in the OF pretty much the entire end of Bernie’s career. It wasn’t until 04-05 that this team actually had something resembling a reasonable Major League defense.

I do think, as I’ve posted before, that they’ve been woefully unlucky with bats off the bench. I think any examination of the projections at the time would verify this.

Chacon wasn’t cut.  The Yanks dealt two relievers for him.

Thanks! I recalled it being a waiver trade, but I can easily see it not being that.

You can’t just look at a player’s performance in the year preceding their becoming a Yankee and their actual Yankee performance if you want to really assess whether someone was disappointing.  You should look at what their projections would have been as a Yankee (adjusting for age, league differences, defense, etc.,) and see if they really did underperform.

Pavano’s a perfect example of this.  Saying he was a 137 ERA+ pitcher ignores the fact that he was really not expected to be any better than league average by most objective projection systems.  That he couldn’t stay healthy is of course a whole different issue.

Okay, but if you looked at projections, all the pitchers on the list underperformed their projections as well, right?

I remember how logical Brown and Vazquez seemed like at the time, projection-wise (as they were actually both replacing younger pitchers - Clemens and Pettitte, respectively - and yes, it is a sad statement about the Yankees pitching staff at the time that Brown was actually younger than the man he was replacing).

replacing younger pitchers = replacing older pitchers

Brown’s FIP was much better than his ERA that bad year if I remember correctly.

True, but I think that FIP works for the majority of major league pitchers but it may break down when someone finally loses it.  Brown’s BABIP was .381 that year I think, which is really high.

Okay, but if you looked at projections, all the pitchers on the list underperformed their projections as well, right?

Not sure.  I’d have to do a retroactive look and look at the defense and league and park effects.  My guess, Weaver and Vazquez definitely underperformed.  RJ probably did what you’d expect in year 1 as a Yankee, Pavano and Wright probably didn’t do much worse than expected.  This might make for an interesting post one day, so I’ll keep it in the back of my head, maybe for the ASB.

This might make for an interesting post one day, so I’ll keep it in the back of my head, maybe for the ASB.

Cool. Thanks!