If Andy Pettitte picks up his option, that likely means Kei Igawa will not be needed to start a game in 2008 - which is most assuredly a good thing.

By the way, Austin Jackson has really been hitting well of late in the Hawaii Winter Baseball League.  Last night he picked up yet another extra base hit (a double) and scored two runs.  He’s also upped his BB rate, which suggests improved control of the strike zone.  He may very well be the Yanks’ no. 1 prospect now that Hughes, Joba and Kennedy are in the majors and Tabata is recovering from injury.

I feel a lot more comfortable with Pettitte in the middle of the rotation next year.  In a worst case scenerio, he’ll protect the bullpen w/ a lot of innings.  That will have a trickle down affect so that Kennedy and Joba won’t have to go too deep into games.

Igawa and Moose as long relievers is a very good thing.

I’d prefer Kennedy and Joba to limit their innings via less starts (25 say, as opposed to the usual 34) rather than going five innings at a time.  Whether that can be accomplished via a six man rotation including Mussina or if skipping Joba and/or Kennedy during the many off days of April and May remains a question.

As for the long relievers, Igawa should be one option but Darrell Rasner should not be forgotten as well.  Steven White, a 26 year old righty who pitched well at AAA and who has fairly good stuff should also be considered.

I don’t expect Moose to be a reliever next year.  Six starting pitchers isn’t one too many.  If the last three seasons have taught us anything, it’s that six is one too few.  If they’re all healthy and effective at the same time, we can worry about it then.  It’s more likely that there will be plenty of work for all of them. 

As far as Igawa goes, I’m not convinced he’s a major league pitcher.  Last year we were all scratching our heads about how Japan league pitchers translated.  There was a loose consensus that Matsuzaka’s upside was that he’d be a number 1 starter, and his downside a number 3.  Igawa’s upside was a number 3 and his downside was that he wouldn’t be able to hack it.  I think Matsuzaka is shaking out as a number 3 and Igawa… is Igawa.

I’m in favor of a 6-man not-exactly-rotation that would allow:

1. Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy to be shuttled in and out and make fewer starts and thus throw fewer innings.
2. Mussina to take a few starts off late in the season (if he’s still in the mix by then)

IE:
1. Thanks! for the ongoing Jackson, etc. updates.  Keep them coming, please.
2. Do you have a man-crush on Rasner or what?  (I suppose most of us do tend to forget about him.)

an interesting (read: unliklely) solution would be to use Pettitte and Wang in a “normal” rotation, make moose a Sunday starter, and then squeeze Hughes, Joba and Kennedy as the filler inbetween. 

It’s probably too early to be so optimistic, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Yankees are comfortably in a playoff position by midsummer, and they could find ways to conserve the young arms while still having time to gear them back up in September.

If Hal is Henry V, does that make Torre Falstaff?
I like to see Wang, Pettitte, Moose, Kid Igawa, Rasner can be innings eaters with Hughes and Joba becoming aces (not that it’s a sure thing, of course)

Jackson really has improved by leaps and bounds.  He began the year at A level Charleston and was decent, but not overly impressive.  Upon being promoted to high A Tampa at mid season, he put up an OPS of over .950 in a pitcher’s park and in a pitcher dominated league.  Now, Jackson (in a small sample size, to be sure) is hitting yet again, with plenty of extra bases in a league known for suppressed offense that is roughly equivalent to AA.  If this keeps up, he could very well be starting in the Yankee outfield in 2009 at the age of 22.

Good grief. What’s worse than one Steinbrenner running the team? Two of them. Agreed with SG; I just hope the Tampa Mafia doesn’t wield undue influence over Hal and Hank.

They seem very intent on getting Joba into the rotation in 2008, and I think that’s the right move. But at least with Pettitte likely coming back, they’ll have five starters (along with IPK, Hughes, Wang, Moose) and can move Joba to the 8th inning role again if circumstances dictate.

My preference with Igawa would be to trade him to the NL for a good set-up guy. Cla Meredith? Igawa is a tradeable asset because of his contract and his stuff. I think the Yankees will again have enough arms in AAA and AA to make Kei superfluous: Darrell Rasner, Matt DeSalvo, Steven White, Alan Horne, Daniel McCutchen, Chase Wright. In the event of an injury, I believe one of those guys can handle part time duty.

Hal seems far too shy to be Henry V.  If you’ll remember, young Hal Plantaganet was very much the rambunctious sort.

I think this makes Theo into Henry Hotspur.

I think this conversation makes us even nerdier than normal.

I must confess: although I’m an historian, I once aspired to be an English major in college.

Say ten “Go Yankees” and you are absolved, my son.

You guys are very confusing. Who is Henry whatever? I’m getting a headache.

A. Phil it’s Monday at 11:30.  Are you reading RLYW instead of taking notes in Chem or are you cutting class?  Regardless, this is your future we’re talking about, young man. 

And either read Henry IV Pt. 1 or rent that Gus Van Sant movie or both.

The problem with projecting the rotation is that, if this last season wasn’t a fluke for Joba, Hughes and especially Kennedy (who has the higher innings caps) is that all 3 of them will probably project to be better than Mussina. with Joba and/or Hughes perhaps being better than Pettite and/or Wang. I think Hughes and Joba are around the 160 IP limit for 08, and Kennedy is 190-200. You want to make sure they get there (1) for their develop and (2) because those are innings you’d rather have them pitch than Mussina (unless he turns the corner.)

Also, a lot was made about how many rookies started for the Yankees in 07, and most of the discussion was that it was a sign of a crumbling rotation. Cashman should be applauded for the pitching depth he put together in 2007, and 2008 looks to be even better. My order of preference:

Wang
Pettite
Joba
Hughes
Mussina
Kennedy
Rasner
Igawa
DeSalvo
Wright
Clippard
Karstens (who really sucks and shouldn’t even be on this list.)

White, Horne and Marquez also figure to be in that mix somewhere. That’s a hell of a depth chart for starting pitching. And it’s all the more reason to look to move guys like Rasner, Igawa, Wright, Clippard and Kartens.  I think it’s cliche to say “you can never have too much starting pitching”.. but there is certainly a situation when you can - it’s when you’re this deep with guys who project to be maybe a 3, 4 or 5, and you can’t field a decent bullpen arm and you have a platoon situation at 1B.

(in a small sample size, to be sure)

It’s still much more comforting to know he’s kicking ass in a small sample size rather thank sucking in a small sample size.

Mussina
Kennedy

Should be Kennedy, Mussina

an interesting (read: unliklely) solution would be to use Pettitte and Wang in a “normal” rotation, make moose a Sunday starter, and then squeeze Hughes, Joba and Kennedy as the filler inbetween. 

this is exactly what i would do.

i expect Joba and possibly Hughes to outpitch Wang next year.  that’s an incredibly exciting thought.

The problem with projecting the rotation is that, if this last season wasn’t a fluke for Joba, Hughes and especially Kennedy (who has the higher innings caps) is that all 3 of them will probably project to be better than Mussina. with Joba and/or Hughes perhaps being better than Pettite and/or Wang

It’s probably too early for this, but here’s the first pass of CAIRO projections for the Yankee pitchers next season.

I’m still fine-tuning my pitcher projections so these could change drastically.

I’m still fine-tuning my pitcher projections so these could change drastically.

Pavano’s line need to have some columns for “# Hot Dogs sold”, “# of jump starts given to cars in the parking lot”, etc..

Also, isn’t it nice to see 4 numbers < 30 in the age catergory for our rotation?

Edwar’s number look good too, although it seems like whatever was making him lights out in AAA is not always working at the MLB level. He needs another pitch.

that projection is about 1-2 relief arms from a championship caliber staff.

bring a-rod, posada, and mo back please!

If I had to guess, I’d say that Moose, Edwar, and Veras’s projections are too favorable.  Vizcaino’s is worse than I’d have expected, but most of the others seem reasonable enough except Pavano should have zeros across everything.

that projection is about 1-2 relief arms from a championship caliber staff.

Yeah, they need a setup man in front of Mo.  I wonder if Alan Horne could be a Scot Shields type?

Was anyone else encouraged by Moose’s playoff outing, his velocity was way abck up, above 90.  I think he just had a case of the dead arm and august was an aberration.

I wonder if Alan Horne could be a Scot Shields type?

And can Humberto Sanchez be what Joba was in 07 and what Kyle Farnsworth never was in 06, 07 and never will be in 08?

Also, Ohlendorff = innings eater? He’s over the innings hump in progressing to a starter?

Also, JB Cox will mix in there as well, right?

Was anyone else encouraged by Moose’s playoff outing, his velocity was way abck up, above 90.  I think he just had a case of the dead arm and august was an aberration.

yes.  he pitched pretty well. 

i like the idea of making him the sunday starter.  i think he can be effective and take up the 150 innings that are needed to keep Joba, Phil, and Ian down around where they need to be.

1. I’m pretty sure the FOX gun was adding a mile or two per hour for Moose.

2. I think as unconventional as it may seem, the best deployment of resources is go with a rotation setup that a.) guarantees Wang and Andy get the ball every 5 days and b.) have The Old Man and The Kids™ take turns taking turns on the last 3 spots and when they’re not taking their turn do some bullpen, long relief work. This takes care of worrying about innings with The Kids and takes care of worrying about running out of gas with Moose.

3. Austin Jackson’s definitely had a nice winter ball run thus far, I’m going to write something minor league related to try and wrap up the long done minor league regular season and give a primer on winter ball.

I wonder if Alan Horne could be a Scot Shields type?

I have one concern with this, but I’ll have to do some research on it before I can say anything one way or the other.

Everyone would love a Scot Shields type but the only problem with is that the guy seems altogether unique.  He can throw 90 innings per year, seems impervious to overuse (although he did have a very bad rough patch last year) and is fairly consistent season after season. 

As for JB Cox and Humberto Sanchez, both will be coming off TJ surgery - so we should go very easy on the expectations.  In terms of Horne, I believe the Yanks will try to keep him as a starter, at least in the short term - especially as he may be needed if a few members of the staff suffer injuries next season.

I think it’s cliche to say “you can never have too much starting pitching”.. but there is certainly a situation when you can - it’s when you’re this deep with guys who project to be maybe a 3, 4 or 5, and you can’t field a decent bullpen arm and you have a platoon situation at 1B.

Indeed.  Which is why I think the Santana trade talk in the previous thread iss off-the-mark.  Starting pitching is the team’s strength looking ahead to ‘08.  If such a trade were pulled off, however, I don’t see how you avoid sending Joba back to the bullpen.

BTW, I think I’m the only one who isn’t kept awake by the 1B situation.  Betemit/Duncan, IMO, could combine for numbers equivalent to at least a Ryan Garko.

If you are going to limit Joba’s innings to 160 as a starter, is that really THAT much more valuable than say 70 as a setup man?  especially if the yankees have tons of depth in the rotation, but a big hole in the bullpen?  200 innings is a no brainer, but a 160 cap w/ a probable postseason seems somewhat limiting.

Do you ever want Joba to be a 200 inning starter?  If so, they’ve got to build up his workload and sticking him in the pen isn’t going to help that.

Indeed.  Cleveland’s Rafael Betancourt is about as shutdown as a 70 inning set-up man gets, but 200 innings of Fausto Carmona is far more valuable.  The Yanks have plenty of candidates to fill out the pen.  Chances are a few of them will be decent to good.  Joba belongs in the rotation.

They could always have Joba as the long man in April and May and then insert him as a starter. Win-win situation.

BTW, I think I’m the only one who isn’t kept awake by the 1B situation

I wouldn’t say I’m kept awake at night by it.  But if everything else works out in the Yankees’ favor (that is, all the FA they want to keep are kept), probably the biggest issue going forward is 1B.  Though that is admittedly not *that* much of an issue.  Yeah, there’s the pen, but I have a feeling enough can be found internally to make it if not a strength, at least not a weakness.

If you are going to limit Joba’s innings to 160 as a starter, is that really THAT much more valuable than say 70 as a setup man

Wouldn’t you rather have the 25 starts be games you feel REALLY good about winning going into?  I’d imagine the projection SG put up would be about 3-4 wins above replacement; it’s kinda hard to get that much out of a reliever, unless it is a closer.

Brought this up in another thread, but the Yankees ranked 3rd lowest in the AL in strikeouts, 3rd highest in the AL in walks and 4th worst in ERA+. You begin to address these problems by having Hughes and Joba as regular parts of the rotation. Guys who can throw the ball past people, each going 150-170 innings (keeping my fingers crossed). As many innings as they can go on a given night, limited to 25 or so starts.

That should also lessen the dependance on the bullpen and make them (whoever “them” ends up being) stronger and more effective.

By late 2008, I think some guys from the minors will have worked their way into the mix for big league innings out of the pen. David Robertson and Kevin Whelan among them. But that shouldn’t stop Cashman from being aggressive in trying to find a few potential late-inning guys.

Pete Abe apparently knows Molina wants to come back as the backup C, which is AWESOME:

7. The Yankees have a lot of players higher on their priority list. But Jose Molina wants to come back and they need him back on the roster

SG, love the projections. But if the Yankees finish with a 116-84 record, will it be enough to win the East?

If you are going to limit Joba’s innings to 160 as a starter, is that really THAT much more valuable than say 70 as a setup man?

I’ll join the crowd. The kid has a huge potential. You can’t just think about 2008. The beauty (in your eyes, more likely… not mine) of IPK/Joba/Hughes isn’t that they’ll all be great next year, it’s that they might own the league from 2010-2018. But if the Yankees insist on hedging on their growth by placing them in the bullpen so they can cover the short term, I think they’re risking the long term gains.

But if the Yankees finish with a 116-84 record, will it be enough to win the East?

You should ignore the W-L records for now, they’re based on the Yankee lineup as currently constituted and the playing time is projected too high for some of the pitchers.

Figured as much, but I couldn’t resist.

I guess I don’t know enough about building up arm strength.  Does pitching 160 innings in 2008 help Joba pitch 200 innings in 2009?  My point (guess?  assumption?) was that at 160 innings, there’s less risk of Joba getting hurt.  And that just another year free of injury, in general, would make Joba stronger over the long haul. 

Johan came up as a middle reliever.  Are there other examples of can’t miss studs and how they were handled w/ care?

I’m no expert either on arm strength. But I think the experience of starting is important too. How to pitch when guys get 3-4 looks at you is much different, and presumably much different on the body (legs, endurance, etc.) too. I guess it goes without saying that if you want a guy to develop as a starter, let him work as a starter. Alternatively, a middle reliever who works multiple innings. I believe Haren was used that way in St. Louis at first. Not that I’d use the Cards as an example of how to take care of young arms. Using Joba in short relief isn’t certain to ruin his development, but I do think it’s less likely to help.

And this is why our RLYW plan of shuttling Joba, Hughes, and IPK in and out of the 4-5 slots of the rotation makes sense; when someone is sitting around for 10 or more days he can be used for 3-4 innings if Wang gets knocked out in the 2nd (hopefully not an ongoing occurence).  Of course, it would take a creative manager to engage in this, and I’m not sure the Yankees will have one.

In the above I mean to say that those 3-4 inning stints are good training for the multiple looks thing, too.

Actually, this sounds pretty clever to me, FWIW. The only knock would be that starts might get too spread out and irregular, but even then that would only be the case until someone else got hurt. Presumably they’d all get 20 or so starts.

I’ll accept that Carmona was lights out against us and sucked against Boston but I was kind of disheartened to see how well Boston took adavantage of Sabathia’s sub par performance while we, read Posada and Matsui, failed to convert any of Sabathia’s six walks in five innings into runs.

So, bebop, what do you think?  Are these teams better than us or did we have a bad weekend?

I think Cleveland is better suited then we are to win a 5 game series but probably not for a full season.  We definitely had a very bad weekend with Wang the worst perp and a number of hitters following closely after.  As for Boston it sure is nice to have 2 power studs in the lineup instead of one and that plus their superior rotation makes them for the 1st time in the Torre era the better team.

Yeah, their raotation . . . It rankles me that Schilling is still money in the playoffs, but he is. 

Probably a lot of people have forgotten this, but the Sox wanted Vasquez, not Schilling, that offseason of ‘03-‘04. Unfortunately, so did we.

2004 Red Sox > 2004 Yankees

Boston > Yankees the year womack was in LF.  i still can’t believe that team made the playoffs.

I mean, not always money, but often money.

Yeah, Yup, I’m with you on that.

Probably a lot of people have forgotten this, but the Sox wanted Vasquez, not Schilling, that offseason of ‘03-’04. Unfortunately, so did we.

i think it had more to do with the D-Backs demanding NJ and Soriano and taking a pile of garbage from Boston in payback for Steinbrenner getting Wells to back out of a handshake deal with Colangelo.

“i still can’t believe that team made the playoffs.”

It’s hard to believe, but they won 101 games going Vasquez-Lieber-Bad Moose (hurt a lot-Brown-Contreras for most of the season.  Ouchie. 

It was because Miguel Cairo did so many little things that we won 101.

“i think it had more to do with the D-Backs demanding NJ and Soriano and taking a pile of garbage from Boston in payback for Steinbrenner getting Wells to back out of a handshake deal with Colangelo.”

Actually, I have nothing to cite on this, but I really remember the Yanks making Vasquez their priority.  You know what?  At the time that seemed smart, too.  He was about 27 and looked like he’d be a horse, if not a stud, for years.

And you know, I just looked, and Vasquez’s WHIP and k/bb were good that year.  he just couldn’t . . . stop . . .  giving . . .  up . . . homers.

(Which made it particularly assinine to bring him into a game with the bases loaded, Johnny Damon up, and your season on the line.  Grrrr.  Fire Joe.)

Actually, I have nothing to cite on this, but I really remember the Yanks making Vasquez their priority.  You know what?  At the time that seemed smart, too.  He was about 27 and looked like he’d be a horse, if not a stud, for years.

you are probably right. 

but if i recall, originally Schilling said he only wanted to be traded to the Yankees or Phillies.  the Yankees inquired and the price was Soriano, NJ etc the rest is Red Sox lore: Schilling went on SoSH and chatted with the fans who convinced him to give Boston a shot, Theo went and had turkey with him on thanksgiving begging him to come to Boston, etc. etc.

I think they were willing to let Petitte go because they wanted Vasquez but they were interested in Schilling also, unfortunately the owner wanted way more from us then from Boston.  Similar situation with Gagne and Texas which is partial payback.  I heard Kellerman and Brian Kenney saying at the time they hated Weaver for Lily trade that turned into Kevin Brown as well as losing Petitte to keep Vasquez which turned into RJ.  If they didnt make those moves they would have held onto Petitte, Lily, Nick Johnson and Navarro which is >>>>
better then Brown and RJ.

Yeah, I remember that crap with Colangelo being bitchy about Schilling.  But maybe the Yankees actually deserved payback because of the Wells/Steinbrenner deal, which, as I recall, was made while Wells’ agent was hammering out the details of a contract with the D-rays.

On another note, I’m beginning to like this Indians team—though I will always hate Kenny Lofton.

I always thought Torre should have brought in Mariano to pitch to Damon with the bases loaded in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS.  Sure, it was very early, but the season was on the line right then and there.  It might not have altered the outcome, but that was probably the best move - albeit an exceedingly unorthodox one.  If Mariano gets out of the inning unscathed, let him pitch two more and then piece it together from there - but at least at that point there’s a ballgame to be played.  In any event, that’s always been my opinion.

If Kenny Lofton can beat Boston I may not love him but I’ll be glad to have a 10 night stand with him

Westbrook is really on.  Let’s trade David Justice for him.

He was really on against the Yanks in Game 3 until Damon took him out of the park.

By the way, Boston spent an awful lot of money for a #3 pitcher who can’t hack it in the post-season.

Yeah, but we can’t talk, because we spent 2/3 as much money for a #7 pitcher who can’t hack it in the regular season.

Betancourt rocks.  How come we never have a pitcher turn the corner in mid-career like this?

BTW: A-Rod, no surprise, TSN Player of the Year.  39 morons voted for Magglio.

i saw some of the posts up there regarding joba’s value (starter or reliever). i loved watching him out of the pen this year. he’s got the right head for it. but i can’t wait to see him start a game. cause i think he’ll have the head for that too. plus i wanna see his changeup. it seems to me that as a reliever, joba will only be pitching in games that we are on track to win anyhow, unless some barf-brain screws everything up. as a starter he will have the chance and responsibility to mold a large share of those wins all by his lonesome. joba shouldn’t be relegated to the pen because kyle farnsworth is such a loser. in fact, if kyle’s incompetence gets joba stuck in the pen, it would probably be the worst thing he ever did, which is saying a lot considering the guy eats stray cats and runs an underground baby-fighting ring.

also, when wedge put borowski in against us i couldn’t thank him enough. now i truly wish he’d stick rafael perez in there or something.

I have come to respect Eric Wedge as a manager, partky for his realization that it doesn’t make sense to relegate your best pitcher to the 9th inning always.

nevermind. that guy’s tough as nails.

I said it in my ALDS preview, Borowski’s really not that bad.  Take out those 3 horrible appearances and he had a 3.23 ERA.

that’s a good point, the frog. i always thought you should have a 3 run closer, a 2 run closer, and a 1 run closer. a strikeout closer, a groundball closer, a lefty closer, a sidearm closer, a fastball closer, a breaking- ball closer. the more i type closer the weirder the word looks. closer.

now lets see if micah owings can hit four homers.

I was thinking along similar lines. Betancourt is clearly the Indians’ best reliever and he faced the three toughest outs in Boston’s lineup in the 8th in Youkilis, Ortiz and Manny.  Of course, Wedge is merely following the creaky old managerial dogma that a “closer” is the guy who throws in the 9th inning when one’s team is ahead.  As for Joe from Bayonne, he’s not even the fourth best reliever on that team.

Not to be strident, but if the Yanks could take away Chien Ming Wang’s 3 terrible appearances (two of which happened to occur in the post-season), they’d still be playing baseball right now.

the fact that he faced the best hitters in the lineup was just circumstance, but deep inside i’m certain wedge breathed a deep sigh of relief.

IE i prefer my wounds without salt.

wanna put money on how many times the TBS booth uses the term “Herky-Jerky” in reference to Franklin Morales or something Tony Gwynn has eaten?

also excuse me for saying deep so many times

Baseball certainly doesn’t want to see it, but I’d love an Indians-Rockies World Series.  I’d especially love it if baseball’s asinine policy of having 17 off days between each series and game resulted in the teams playing the deciding game 7 in a raging blizzard.

And if the Rox sweep they’ll have not 17 but 39 days off.

By the way, Boston spent an awful lot of money for a #3 pitcher who can’t hack it in the post-season.

Totally disagree. He struck out 6 guys in 4+, the only blemishes being a cheap-ass homer and an rbi single that was two feet away from an inning-ending DP. I thought he looked quite good, blew away several good hitters, etc. How many Asian imports in their first season in the ML can say that? How many 26-year-olds of any origin can say that?

I know the story will be 4 runs in 4 innings, but I’m telling you, this guy is a pitcher.

Not that I’m biased… I just hate the simple storylines that will inevitably get peddled whether they’re true or not.

SSF - You’re right about Matszaka but for some reason, Matsuzaka always seems to have 1 horrible inning, when he totally loses it.

Best thing about dumping Igawa on an NL team is that there’s a good chance we get to see him start Game 2 of an NLDS next year.

You better not mess with the Rockies, they apparently have God on their side. Maybe I just tune out these post-game celebrations, but I am pretty sure I’ve never heard God invoked as many times as he was by the Rockies players and management after the sweep.

21 wins in 22 games.

Wow.

Betancourt rocks.  How come we never have a pitcher turn the corner in mid-career like this?

let’s not forget he is a confirmed juicer.

no one forgets when it’s a yankee player.

By the way, Boston spent an awful lot of money for a #3 pitcher who can’t hack it in the post-season.

Not that I’m biased… I just hate the simple storylines that will inevitably get peddled whether they’re true or not.

On August 10th, Matsuzaka had a 3.59 ERA and a 13-8 record. Since then (including his two postseason starts), in over two months of time, he is 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA (61 hits and 29 BBs in 56 IPs). So, either he’s not used to handling much more than 160 IPs, OR a 6-game stretch in the middle of the summer in which he averaged 120 pitches per start was simply too much, OR he has arm issues that he is pitching through, OR AL hitters have made some adjustments, OR ....

He *looks* like a pitcher, yes, but the recent results should concern/disappoint any Red Sox fan. Let’s just say his performance since August 10th is about on par with Igawa’s entire 2007 season. That’s not a good thing.

the only blemishes being a cheap-ass homer

Any homer you give up to Kenny Lofton isn’t cheap, it’s a bad pitch your part. And not getting out of the 5th inning in either of his starts is not commensurate with the amount of ink and breathless hype that surrounded Matsuzaka heading into 2007.

That said, Dice-K has shown enough this year as to make me think he’ll have a better 2nd year in Boston. Not Josh Beckett-good, but pretty good nonetheless. I think Francona and staff will have learned their lesson on over usage.

Matsuzaka vs:

National League (AZ, AT, SD, SF) - 27 IP, 2.00 IP
KC - 7 IP, 1.29 ERA
MIN - 8 IP, 2.25 ERA
OAK - 7 IP, 2.57 ERA
TBD - 33 IP, 4.09 ERA
CWS - 5 IP, 5.40 ERA
BAL - 9.2 IP, 8.38 ERA
TOR - 24.1 IP, 5.18 ERA
CLE - 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA
SEA - 27 IP, 4.33 ERA
DET - 14 IP, 4.50 ERA
TEX - 5 IP, 9.00 ERA
NYY - 25 IP, 6.12 ERA

i’ve watched Matsuzaka pitch a few times this year, and to me, he looks like a pretty good pitcher.  but he is fairly ineffiecient, he runs up his pitch count pretty fast when he is facing teams who will make him throw strikes.  i have no idea how he will do next year, he could make an adjustment and get more aggressive in the strikezone, or he could simply be a #3-ish type starter in the AL.  tough to say.

but looking at his splits, i don’t know how much of 2007 was “a few bad starts” towards the end of the season, or how much was that his record in inter-league play and against the weaker offenses in the league were masking his overall mediocrity.  seems to me like most of the average and above offenses in the league didn’t have much trouble with him.

I’m projecting a better year for Matsuzaka in 2008, a 3.92 ERA.  He doesn’t appear to be as good as he was hyped to be, but he’s a 26 year old with pretty good stuff.  Anyone writing him off after one season that really wasn’t that bad is being short-sighted.

Did Boston overpay for him?  Probably.  But I’d rather have Matsuzaka at $100 million than Igawa at $46 millon.

He *looks* like a pitcher, yes, but the recent results should concern/disappoint any Red Sox fan. Let’s just say his performance since August 10th is about on par with Igawa’s entire 2007 season. That’s not a good thing.

No doubt, he desperately needs a vacation (which makes last night’s battling impressive). And no doubt, he showed a lot of inefficiency and occasionally disappearing command. And no doubt, the Sox let him run up too many innings, not having any clue what they were dealing with. All of that, though, is pretty predictable for the situation and correctable over time. I think he’s a solid #3, maybe rounding out into a #2. And we already have a #1. So by the time the 100th mil is paid, I am counting on numbers like SG’s projection or better.

But I’d rather have Matsuzaka at $100 million than Igawa at $46 millon.

Make that much rather. Matsuzaka contributed heavily to Boston’s fast start. Igawa contributed heavily to New York’s horrendous start.

I think Matsuzaka will closely match Wang in value over the balance of his contract.

2. I think as unconventional as it may seem, the best deployment of resources is go with a rotation setup that a.) guarantees Wang and Andy get the ball every 5 days and b.) have The Old Man and The Kids™ take turns taking turns on the last 3 spots and when they’re not taking their turn do some bullpen, long relief work. This takes care of worrying about innings with The Kids and takes care of worrying about running out of gas with Moose.

Unconventional?  Perhaps.

But it worked pretty well for Mr. Stengel.