Sheets most likely will insist on a multi-year deal, as opposed to Pettitte. This may shift the balance in favor of Pettitte if we stick to those inning projections. I think Andy is more likely to meet his innings total than Sheets.

So is he worth a Smoltz-type contract?  What sort of baseline/incentives would you be happy with.  I think the fact that he’s a type A has scared some teams off.  I bet he winds up with the Brewers again on a 1-2 year deal with a lot of incentives.

So is he worth a Smoltz-type contract?

Probably more than that, given his relative youth.

What sort of baseline/incentives would you be happy with.

If he’s healthy enough to pitch 100 innings, he’s worth around 15 runs above replacement.  If his physical indicates he can at least do that, I’d probably offer him something like $7-8M base.  Every ten innings above that project to be worth around 1.5 runs saved above replacement, which is worth around $825K using $5.5M per marginal win. 

So something like a base of $7-8M, with $750K for every 10 innings above 100?  If he gives you 200 innings, he makes around $15M, and is probably worth $16-17M.  If he doesn’t you’re at least somewhat protected.

If, as sam says, he’s going to insist on a multi-year deal, I’d pass.  I would explore a vesting option type thing if he’s amenable to that.

The value of a marginal win is going down in price just like a car, a house, a Flatscreen TV, a Prada bag, a stock, and a degree.  If that $5.5M is an accurate estimate of last year’s value, then this years should be about $5M and next years possibly $4.5M.  Just so ya know…

Can someone make that “getting to third” banner ad scroll upwards instead of downwards, just for the sake of variety?

The value of a marginal win is going down in price just like a car, a house, a Flatscreen TV, a Prada bag, a stock, and a degree.

And yet, Manny Ramirez is still looking for four years at $20M per, Ben Sheets is still insisting on a multi-year deal, Circuit City is trying to liquidate their inventory without really discounting anything much at all, and colleges aren’t exactly tripping over each other to be the first to announce those big tuition cuts.  Go figure.

there are 15 teams that all have a protected first round pick.  without looking, i would bet that all 15 teams could use a semi-healthy Ben Sheets and almost all of them could afford him.

this, at least to me, tells me that he isn’t even semi-healthy.

Total CPI is down 0.25%  less food and energy over the month of December.  Not sure you can really extrapolate that to a decrease in 10% of the marginal win value.  Now, the “value” of a marginal win has increased much faster than inflation over the course of the FA era, so you could say it’s fairly decoupled.

The other thing to think about is that the value of a marginal win increases dramatically in the 88-98 win regime, which is where the Yankees are right now.  Making the playoffs versus not making the playoffs is a huge difference to revenue.

What would it take to get John Garland?  Sheets would bring a great deal of upside to the table, but I feel like the Yankees need more of an innings-eater at this point.  Or Looper?  Or Randy Wolf?

Still wondering how a team’s WS chances scale as true talent increases beyond say 95 wins - the estimate I put up recently was way simple.  Surely winning a few WS has financial rewards.

this, at least to me, tells me that he isn’t even semi-healthy.

Yeah, it seems like that. 

What would it take to get John Garland?

Foolishness.

Or Looper?

Foolishness.

Or Randy Wolf?

I like Wolf more than the others, but it seems like he is looking for 3 years, and a decent amount per year. 

I don’t think the Yankees should sign anyone who wants more than one year.  As long as they continue to focus on drafting and developing pitchers, filling up the rotation with long-term deals for mediocrities makes no sense.

Still wondering how a team’s WS chances scale as true talent increases beyond say 95 wins - the estimate I put up recently was way simple

Not sure you can increase your chances to win a World Series past a certain degree, given you will always be playing other good teams in the playoffs.  But I can look at log5 for some different talent levels, say 95 - 115 in intervals of 5, and see what it says.

Anyone a little worried?

Posada will not be able to catch by the exhibition opener Feb. 25, Cashman said, but he is on track to be ready for the regular-season opener April 6.

I’m trying not to be, but a lot of the season is riding on Posada being able to play behind the plate a fair amount.

[12] Cool, thanks.

Is there any way, statistically, to model the Yankees’ chances of getting Saltalamacchia in trade if Bush goes back to the Rangers?

“Bush goes back to the Rangers”

[possibly annoying political link warning]

I think this is one of the greatest posts I’ve ever read; it nearly answers your question.

[/annoying political link]

OK, if we assume that the average playoff opponent is a 96 win team (average wins of all AL playoff teams from 1998-2008), then here’s what log5 says for the odds of advancing past each round.

So a 90 win talent team has a 43.8% of winning the divisional series, an 18.0% of winning the DS and then subsequently winning the Championship series, and finally a 7.4% of winning the DS, CS and eventually the World Series (assuming an average 96 win talent opponent).

So even a team that’s as stacked as say the 1998 Yankees at best has a 41% likelihood of going all the way.

This ignores the fact that the way a team is constructed can have a non-trivial impact in a short series above and beyond what their 162 game talent level may be.

Thanks!

I doubt the 98 Yankees were really that good.  I had the sense that season that every bounce was going our way.

Also, does 17 include a bonus/penalty for home-field advantage in-league?

Also, does 17 include a bonus/penalty for home-field advantage in-league?

I can’t answer this until you rescind this:

I doubt the 98 Yankees were really that good.

Rescind what?  I would never say that.

MLB revenues, when you factor in concessions, parking, clothing/merchandise, ticket sales, and ad spending ($ per viewer will be lower for EVERy form of entertainment/information) will easily be down 10% this year ex-NY (new stadiums are a one-off boost).  That means marginal wins will be less valuable.

My thinking was that Garland or Looper or Wolf could possibly be had on a one or two year deal, although I had somehow forgotten that Kyle Lohse signed a 4-year, $41M contract this winter.  I still think the Yankees need to slot a veteran innings-eater into the rotation if Pettitte doesn’t come back.

The comparison of Andy and Sheets would depend on how good the pitching is to replace Sheets’s 70 fewer innings.  If those innings are pitched by someone better than replacement level then that pitcher + Sheets will have more RSAA than Andy.  Given the strength of Hughes, Aceves, and perhaps Kennedy or Coke, I’d prefer a Sheets who pitches better to an Andy who would pitch more innings.

Also, if (when) the Yanks reach the post-season, a healthy Sheets could be a big asset.  Andy might not start at all, even if he’s healthy.

I don’t think it is even a comparison of Pettitte vs. Sheets.  I think if Andy called tomorrow and said, “I’ve changed my mind, $10M is fair and I want to pitch in the new stadium”, Cashman and the Hendricks would finalize the contract immediately. 

Also, I’m pretty sure the Yankees *can’t* sign Sheets.  At least not yet anyway.  The Yankees have already signed 3 type A players.  We had some questions (and I don’t think we ever got them answered) about if the Yankees could sign more than 3 if they lost some of their own type A’s.  I don’t think any of the Yankees’s type A FA have signed with another team yet (Abreu and Pettitte is all right?), so they probably can’t add another type A until that happens.

Finally, I like the idea of Garland on 1 year deal.  He seems likely to give 180+ innings of (near) league-average performance.  From your 4th starter, there’s nothing wrong with that.  And if he’s pitching poorly he’s fairly easy to put in the bullpen/DFA in favor of Hughes/IPK/Aceves.

I’m trying not to be, but a lot of the season is riding on Posada being able to play behind the plate a fair amount.

They won 89 games with basically replacement level catching in 2008.  They seem to have improved a wee bit in other areas.  I would guess that they’d be in a better position to absorb the loss of Posada in 2009 than they were in 2008.

That means marginal wins will be less valuable.

Not to to get all semantic, but no it doesn’t.  If revenues really do decline, that will mean that a marginal win will result in less marginal revenue (on average).  And the revenue impact of the marginal win or two that get you from just missing the playoffs to just making the playoffs will still be enormous.  In fact, you could argue that the relative value of those particular wins will be even greater if regular season revenue declines.  But no matter what happens to revenues, the value of a marginal win is still whatever the market is willing to pay for it.

Also, I’m pretty sure the Yankees *can’t* sign Sheets.  At least not yet anyway.  The Yankees have already signed 3 type A players.  We had some questions (and I don’t think we ever got them answered) about if the Yankees could sign more than 3 if they lost some of their own type A’s.

While I’m still looking and waiting for a definitive answer to the particular questions about how the whole lose-your-own-free-agents thing works, I am pretty sure that type As and Bs are lumped together for these purposes, so Giambi counts.  Also, the basic limit increases beyond three if there are more than 64 players on the free agent market, so the Yankees *can* sign at least one more type A/B guy.  Maybe two.  But they couldn’t make that signing official until they clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

I’m a little curious as to why another team hasn’t offered Pettitte say, $12MM for a year.  Surely there is a contender that could use his services.

I am pretty sure that type As and Bs are lumped together for these purposes, so Giambi counts.

Good point.

But they couldn’t make that signing official until they clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

True; but I’m also sure they would announce the deal if it had happened.  I doubt Sheets comes to the Yankees.  At this point, I doubt they make another deal of substance, at least until Spring Training is well under way.

I’m a little curious as to why another team hasn’t offered Pettitte say, $12MM for a year.

It’s very - very very - possible that agents for other teams - Mets perhaps? - have called Pettitte’s agents and were told, “not interested”.

Mets perhaps?

You could probably also make a case for the Astros, Braves, and Rangers. Or even (gasp) the Red Sox.

but Giambi wasn’t even a Type B.

I’m a little curious as to why another team hasn’t offered Pettitte say, $12MM for a year.

outside of Lowe, has a single FA landed a $12M salary from a non-NY team?

seems like last year’s $12M is this year’s $8M.

seems like last year’s $12M is this year’s $8M.

Or in Ben Sheets’ case, $0M.

outside of Lowe, has a single FA landed a $12M salary from a non-NY team?

K-Rod got a touch over $12M per from the Mets.  Easy to forget since 3/$37M is a big comedown from the 5/$75M was supposed to have been looking for.

The mets are a NY team.

Rescind what?  I would never say that.

Ok, I can answer then. 

I ignored HFA and calculated against a neutral field, assuming that it pretty much cancels out once you look at all the different ways a team can win a 5 or 7 game series.  For example, the different combinations to win a 5 game series in 5 games are:

LLWWW
LWLWW
LWWLW
WLLWW
WLWLW
WWLLW

If I add in HFA, I’d have to run a whole other set of combinations on top of those, and I didn’t think there would be much of a difference.

The mets are a NY team.

Oops.  I thought I saw two Ys in yup’s post.

Another way to remake my point above is that if Pettitte were compared to Sheets in terms of predicted Runs Saved Above Average, rather than Above Replacement, I think Sheets would have scored higher than Andy.