i think you are off a year on Nady.

they could backload the contracts to make it work better. 

it is also looking more likely that Moose will retire (see Newsday today).

Nady’s $800,000 is just his Yankee tenure $2.4M / 3).  Same with Pudge, Farns, and Marte.

oh, duh.  i still think he’ll get more than $4M in 2009.

also, is it typical to count the entire 40 man roster for payroll purposes?  those extra 15 guys won’t be earning the major league minimum while they are in the minors, right?

also, is it typical to count the entire 40 man roster for payroll purposes?  those extra 15 guys won’t be earning the major league minimum while they are in the minors, right?

Probably not, but it shouldn’t make a ton of difference to the bottom line.

Looking out past 2009, another $46 million comes off in 2010, then in 2011 they have only Rodriguez, Posada, Cano and Igawa under contract at a total of $58 million.  If that doesn’t scream championship core, nothing does.

wow, so the Yankees have to sign Teixeira just to project to 850 runs?  it makes sense, but it’s depressing.

850 runs is not bad at all.  Scoring 968, like they did in 2007, is not going to be a yearly occurrence for any team.

Looks like they can’t afford not to/

It’s amazing to see what the Yankees have to have, and the money they have to spend to get it, especially when you see other teams do better with much less in terms of payroll.

I’d say it’s time for the Yanks to pull a Costanza: whatever they would usually do, don’t do it.

From a Yankees perspective, breaking the bank to sign Teix sounds like the right move.  Maybe they should pass.

Does anyone know how luxury tax is computed?  Is it only on the 25 man roster or on the full 40 man roster?

I think I read somewhere that the minimum salary for next season is now $400,000.

Sure beats minimum wage, doesn’t it?

Contracts are going to surprise on the downside this offseason.  Owners are much poorer and so are their fans.  The business of baseball will continue but it cannot be entirely immune from what ails the real economy.  I don’t see LT contracts being awarded.

So please tell me you have Ponson on the 2009 Yankees, even at league minimum, just to mess with me.

also, is it typical to count the entire 40 man roster for payroll purposes

Actually, I’m pretty sure it does count.  To be on the 40-man, you need to have a major-league contract.  So they’re paying them whatever is in the major-league contract.  A minor-league contract, I think pays something like 1/3rd whatever the current major-league minimum is.  I could of course be wrong, but I think that’s the way it works.

I don’t see LT contracts being awarded.

There will be plenty.  Maybe not as high as would have been before, but they’ll be there.  I suppose the study would be to look back at FA contracts signed the three years before a recession, and compare to those signed during.  E.g. late 70’s/early 80’s, late 80’s/early 90’s, late 90’s/early 2000’s.  I don’t want to get into an argument if this is the worst since the Depression or anything, but is there a pattern to suggest an economic downturn has any affect on contracts?

wow, so the Yankees have to sign Teixeira just to project to 850 runs?

I’d imagine the projections for Gardner, Melky, and Cano are very low.  Probably even fairly low for Posada and Matsui.  Three of those guys are a big part of the Yankees scoring 900+ runs in 2006/2007, and I think there’s an excellent chance all could well outdo their projections, so the Yanks could score 900+ again.  At the same time, Matsui and Posada could get hurt again, Cano could regress further, and Melky/Gardner could flop.

Even with Tex there will be a lot of uncertainty, but also a lot of upside I think.  Signing Tex isn’t just about next year though (at least I hope it isn’t), it should be about the next 5, when (hopefully) the Yankees can start to get some young position players.

Looks like they can’t afford not to

The Frog raises an important point.  Do they need to sign BOTH Sabathia AND Teixeira just to be competitive in the AL East?  If they can only sign one, do they then project to fall short of Tampa and Boston?  Is it worth it to sign just one, or would it be better to keep stockpiling draft picks and keep a low profile?

The business of baseball will continue but it cannot be entirely immune from what ails the real economy.

I think this could be a factor too.  For instance, what happens if the sketchy part of the Stadium’s financing falls through, and the Yankees need to borrow more money to complete the construction.  Isn’t raising that kind of money a problem these days?  Not the team would go bankrupt, but it might preclude a free-agent spending spree.

Do they need to sign BOTH Sabathia AND Teixeira just to be competitive in the AL East?

I think they HAVE to sign Teixeira if they want to compete in 2009.  For Sabathia, it depends.  If Hughes and IPK can contribute positive value in 2009, maybe they don’t need C.C.  We also don’t know what Boston and Tampa have up their sleeves, but both are good bets to at least try and improve themselves.

Even if the Yankees can’t compete in 2009 with signing just one, both are at an age where they should be positive contributors for several years going forward.

The key has to be signing superstar talents under 30.  Then your window of opportunity isn’t so small.

So please tell me you have Ponson on the 2009 Yankees, even at league minimum, just to mess with me.

Here’s his projection:

115 IP
148 H
15 HR
44 BB
57 K
ERA: 5.90
RSAR: -7.3

Nice, right?

If the Yankees, or any other team, needs credit to make payroll, payments on a new stadium, etc., then I think that could be a big factor in not spending.

If the Yankees tax-free bond initiative hits a snag and the Yanks need to pursue more traditional (and now more expensive) lines of credit, then that might keep them from shelling out big bucks for Sabathia and Teix.  The luxury tax is also another debit that could dissuade the Yanks from spending.

I’d imagine that the Yanks will try to sign CC and get a 1B or CF via the trade route.  Cashman has pulled some trades from out of nowhere and I’d bet this offseason will be no exception.

I think they HAVE to sign Teixeira if they want to compete in 2009.

Just to play Devil’s advocate - and understanding you would probably look at some of these players later - but how critical is it to sign Tex to be competitive?  For example, Burrell or Dunn (assume Burrell in RF w/ Nady at first, Dunn at 1B), for next year, are they competitive?  The point I want to make is, are there other, reasonable options to be a competitive offense next year?

Mind you, I’m all for signing Teixeira, and I think he would have the biggest impact for the Yankees.  If they could only sign one of Tex and CC I’d prefer Tex.  But I don’t particularly like the idea of, “if they don’t sign Tex, they aren’t competitive”.

Wow, SG.  Thank you for throwing some unpleasant reality in our faces.

You’re projecting that even if the 2009 Yanks include, CC, Teix, Mussina, and Petitte, the Yanks might not be good enough to make the playoffs.  If they did make the playoffs, they wouldn’t be favorites to win the World Championship. 

From what I’m reading, of these 4, they’re likely to sign only CC and Petitte, so I guess they’re apt to finish 3rd again.  I hope they don’t trade promising young players and commit long-term money to bring in so-so players form other teams, but I’m afraid they will do just that.

I think one of CC and Teix and the Yanks are competitive, not only for the AL East but to make the WS as well. 

Boston has several offseason issues, including a lineup without Manny at all for the first time in years.  The health of Ortiz and Lowell are big issues, as well as Drew’s inability to stay healthy.  The bloom fell off the Jacoby rose and they are depending on Lowrie to fill SS.  Do they bring back Wakefield?  Are they going to depend on the Laptop Thief and Bowden?

The Rays have a bunch of young players that really played well this year, but those same young players could very well struggle next year.  Which Pena will show up?  Will they get a good DH/RF bat?  However, out of all the teams in the AL East, they look best suited to compete in 2009.

Forget about the Jays and Orioles, at least in 2009.

If the Yanks sign Teix, then the Angels need a bat.  The Angels’ OF is a debacle and they will need to replace K-Rod.  The rest of the AL West is woeful.

I don’t see anyone in the AL Central making a strong claim for the Wildcard.

That said, the Yanks could sign CC and trade for a 1B or CF and I think that will position them for a strong run into the 2009 postseason.  If they get both CC and Teix, then I’d say they are the favorites to win the AL.

Do they bring back Wakefield?

Have you seen his contract?  He has a perpetual $4M/year team option.  What a deal.  He’s had an ERA+ of 100 or better every season since 2001.  $4M for a 100ish ERA+ that can give you innings is quite valuable during the season.  The problem is if you’re counting on him to win a big game in the post-season.

And what if they can’t sign either CC or Tex, which is very possible.  What’s the plan at that point?  Another rebuilding season?  Trades?  Would their hand be forced at that point to sign some of Dunn, Burrell, Manny, Burnett, Lowe?  Bring back Giambi and Abreu perhaps?

And for the record, I’d be okay if the answer, ultimately, is another “rebuilding” year where the hopes rest on the performance of the young players.

But the dynamics of this offseason will not be easily sorted through.

This thread is addressing some of the issues I was wondering about in the previous, thanks.

I am backing off my Pro-Lowe position.

I am not sure what they should do, except get Moose back.

MORE MOOSE!

Tampa has some players who will not repeat performances in 2009, but Upton is going to give them a lot more, same with Crawford.  Longoria is a beast and Price is going to knock Jackson out of the rotation.

They are good.

Honestly, I’m not too scared of the red sox right now.  If Matsuzaka goes 18-2 again I’m going to give up on baseball, and I think Beckett also won’t match his 2007 effort.  Lester is going to be good, Buchholz will most likely be better, but their offense doesn’t look too much better than the Yanks right now, and I just don’t see them winning 96-98 games.

Ortiz is isn’t quite toast yet, however….

Regarding Tampa, the Rays are a fun story right now, and it was nice that they beat Boston, but they are in the Series this year and I can’t think of a single player who had a career year on that team.  There’s plenty of room for improvement from that roster as is.  PLUS the farm system is still loaded with talent.  And if the Rays decide to spend ANY money at all on the free-agent market… good lord.

Just making the playoffs is going to be much more difficult going forward.

I’m a little in love with the Cot’s site.  It’s a great way to peruse some just truly awful contracts.  Soriano has 5 years and $90M left on his contract AFTER 2009.  That is going to be ugly, especially in the NL when he has to play the field.

While id love both Tex and CC I feel like it’d be best to choose one of them and not sign both. Although as said above the Rays don’t look like there gonna go anywhere and although the Sox do have flaws they still do work for the most part. So I guess signing them both would go a long ways to ensure we field a competitive team but Id like to continue see a downward trend as far as payroll over the next few years.

RAB’s fp looks like Son of RLYW today.

“If they sign Sabathia for $25M and Teixeira for $23M”

This is based on their worth in a non-zero-sum scenario, isn’t it?  I.e., it’s worth something extra to keep them away from e.g. LAAA.

But is there a sense that they’ll go for what they’re worth?  What have the Yankees paid for expected performance recently?

Man I don’t know a hell of a lot but nobody gets what they’re “worth” in free agency.

If they need roster money Marte and Nady are the two easiest guy to dump out. between them you’d save around 11-12 M probably. it’s unlikely to dump Matsui at this point.

If they could spin those two for useful enough prospects, I’d definately go for it. Marte should be pretty useful next year but he needs to be REALLY good to be worth 6M . Nady’s most likely going to regress next year.

As for run scoring projections, it also has a lot to do with the scoring enviornment in general, MLB as a whole scored quiet a bit less this year than the last couple of season. was this year a fluke? or is it the norm to come?

I am surprised to see that the O’s cut Adam Loewen, even if they were hoping to re-sign him to a minor-league contract. That guy had some real talent. It’s annoying that the Blue Jays nabbed him (he wouldn’t really have a spot on the Yankees, per se, but still, annoying to see competitors get free talent like that).

I was on the fence about Sabathia and Tex, but the more I think about it, the more it seems that these are two guys the Yankees should really go after hard.  If they’re going to use their financial advantage (assuming in this economy they still have one), then the best way to do that is not to pay extra on good but not outstanding players, but to pay premiums for the best players at their positions.  Texeira and Sabathia qualify; Burnett, Lowe, and Burrell don’t.  If they can surround guys like those two and A-Rod and Mo with young cheap decent guys, they’ll be maximizing their advantage.  Overpaying for good but not great players is just going to give you a decent roster in the short term and a crappy one in the future.

I think the Rays will have a significant attrition rate in their rotation next year.  Nearly every starter but Kazmir pitched well above their career (albeit brief) norms in terms of both number of innings pitched and quality of innings pitched.
The same holds true for the Red Sox, though I expect the offensive output to rise to compensate for the injury time loss they will likely accrue, particularly to Lester whose thrown 60 more innings than his previous high.

[I don’t see LT contracts being awarded.]

There will be plenty.  Maybe not as high as would have been before, but they’ll be there.  I suppose the study would be to look back at FA contracts signed the three years before a recession, and compare to those signed during.  E.g. late 70’s/early 80’s, late 80’s/early 90’s, late 90’s/early 2000’s.

If teams are more cautious and there is less money on the table I think both the teams and the agents will punt. Contracts will be more back-loaded and more opt-out clauses will be included.

If they need roster money Marte and Nady are the two easiest guy to dump out. between them you’d save around 11-12 M probably. it’s unlikely to dump Matsui at this point.

I think the way around this is to obviously just backload the contracts for Teixeira and Sabathia should they get them, which is pretty standard. Damon and Matsui coming off the books after this year is pretty big - $26M. As someone suggested, you’re basically deciding to build a team around Sabathia, Teixiera and ARod *and* youth (Chamberlain, Cano, Hughes, and as of now, several question marks).. for the next 5-6 years. I think that’s the right strategy.. you have to draft and develop well, which means enduring the ups and downs of the younger players, but you also need to surround them with the right guys via free agency. I think the 3 that I’ve mentioned are sound in that regard.

It looks like Loewen is done as a pitcher.  Os had transitioned him to become an outfielder, ala Ankiel.  Loewen had done some work as an OF in the instructional league already.  Os had figured they could release him and sign him to a minor league deal.  Jays swooped out of nowhere and signed him.

The Jays are more desperate for bats than I thought.

Isn’t it quite likely that the Angels have locked Tex up already? Seems the rumours say so.

The Rays had a magical season, next year will be hard to find that magic.

The Rays had a magical season, next year will be hard to find that magic.

The Rays have a core of young talent that, I’m sure, projects to produce a great deal of magic next year, too.  SG, if you’re looking for posting ideas, maybe sometime you could use Cairo to project the magic for the 2009 Rays? 

If one prefers more traditional scouting to sabermetric projections, one can easily see that Upton, Longoria, Navarro, Price, Kazmir, Garza, Shields, etc.  have enough tools to suggest that they’ll be producing serious magic, and doing a good job limiting their opponents’ magic production, for years to come.

There’s no way Boras would let LAA lock up Tex without checking what everyone else is offering.

What happened to Loewen’s career?  That’s rather startling news - I admit, I remember largely his consecutive dismemberments of the NYY… it doesn’t seem that long ago… !

There’s no way Boras would let LAA lock up Tex without checking what everyone else is offering.

That would be a shocker. If the Yankees can only sign Pettitte, A.J., and Tex how do they project?

The Rays had a magical season, next year <strike>will be hard to find that magic</strike> they’ll likely be pretty formidable, what with being a good team and adding the real Carl Crawford, a whole year of Longoria and David Price, plus the magic.

There, fixed that for you. Remember, its all about the magic.

RSAR: -7.3

Solid.

Phils getting it done with small ball. 

What Upton just did stealing 2nd then 3rd and scoring on the ball getting away makes me crave players with speed like that. I sure hope Gardner can hit enough and get on enough to do those types of things. Speed like that in a close game makes the difference so often.

Speed like that in a close game makes the difference so often.

Unfortunately not last night.

The Rays are apparently turning into the new Red Sox - non-local media darlings for no good reason.  Enough to make me wish bad things for them.  Or at least a return of their proud tradition of relative obscurity.  After all, isn’t that a better means of avoiding a ridiculous WS-ending catwalk-home-run call than building an entire new stadium?

In the blurbs for each poll on YesNetworks’ “Yankees season-ending awards,” under the vote for best acquisition this year, we read: “Ivan Rodriguez gave the Yankees an additional catcher when the Yankees acquired the veteran backstop from Detroit for Kyle Farnsworth one day before the MLB trade deadline.”
Yes, that about sums up his contribution.

I think everyone missed the most subtle part of SG’s post.

“Carl Pavano DL.”

You da man, SG!

Hinske? Jaysus.

What’s that foreign substance on the tip of Blanton’s hat that he keeps touching? 

Can blanton make his use of pine tar any more obvious? It is on the brim of his hat and he is going to it after every pitch.

good eyes Jonathon

Yes, that about sums up his contribution.

unless he sneaks into a Type A and garners the Yanks 2 picks.  his contribution could be fairly significant in a roundabout kindof way.

The answer is yes.