Wow, I never thought I’d see the day that Cairo outhit anyone. 

(I know it’s only over Figgins, but maybe this offense-minded Miggy should be re-signed to play 1b.)

well done sir

THURM. i’m pleased to announce pops and i just shared a particularly delicious bottle o amber duvel. i told him there’s this old dude on the internet who reccomended i drink it. he called Chris Hansen immediately

Elementary school, baseball-hating version of me just punched current, baseball-loving version of me for laughing as hard as I did at the Cairo/Figgins joke.  Well met.

yeah, it would be funnier if not for all the shame.

i wonder where SG is going on vacation. hopefully to wherever Callix Crabbe is from.

Eelz I just googled Chris Hansen. Thats pretty goddam funny.
Did he call CH because he didn’t care for the ale or because he felt my amusement with your clever posts is a way to to possibly get you undressed in a mens room on the NJ TPKE ?
Now that I read that I hope he hated the ale.

actually when i mentioned you were Old Thurman Fan he asked if you were his old roommate. are you a big fat black postal worker?

and he liked the ale very much-- but in the words of yog’, you didn’t say half the things you said. especially the parts about rest stops.

are you a big fat black postal worker?

on some level, aren’t we all?

No but I played one in an off Broadway production of Agnes Brown.

hahaha yup

god that’s obscure thurman. you have clearly proved you are nothing but mick

The Mick.

sweet. i just downloaded some sweet games from mlb.com

Glad you enjoyed the Duvel Eelz. Its my alltime favorite.
Many are great but one is best.
Don is also a fan.
night lads

i got kerry wood’s monster start from 98 a while back. it’s great to watch. makes you realize what a tragedy the guy is.

tragedy in the context of baseball

tragedy in the context of baseball

In the context of baseball, Kerry Wood is an unfortunate situation.  The 2004 playoffs was a tragedy.

you’re right, that was inappropriate. i forgot where i was for a second.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071118&content_id=2303043&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

MLb.com:  Rivera about to resign.

Thurm been sending booze to the baseball clinics in the Dominican Republic, too.

As for CAIRO vs. CHONE, the comparison confirms for me that CAIRO is very optimistic in its projections.  Of course we won’t know if that optimism is merited or not until next year, but still, I was wondering if this is a concern for you, SG?

Stupid question:

Is Andy Phillips off the team?  I didn’t hear anything.

...or is he just so far down the depth chart that he doesn’t even get projected?

Andy Phillips is still on the 40 man. 

as a 25th man who can back up 1B, 3B, and maybe 2B in a pinch, he’s OK.  but i will be pretty disappointed if he is starting games at 1B next year. 

luckily i have faith that Girardi will chose his 1Bman based on tangible skills such as “hitting”.

CAIRO is very optimistic in its projections

I’d just like to point out that CAIRO is only about 4% more optimistic in the number of runs it is projecting for the entire team.  Now that does work out to a lot (about 4 wins) over the course of a season, but still, it is only 4%.  I’m sure a very minor tweak (if warranted) would get them to be close.  At the very least, it is probably close enough to make some general assumptions; and of course when comparing if the Yankees should get Player A or Player B, it is probably fine.

I agree about Andy.  It’s fine to have him on the team, but probably should only start in rare circumstances (e.g. lefty on the mound, Shelly could use a day off, things like that).

I’d be THRILLED if Jorge does what either system is projecting for him.  Other than that… CHONE looks pretty realistic to me overall.

Nice to have a guy on the bench who’s projected to have a .900 OPS season.

sqrt(900) = 30.  Just sayin’.

From what I can tell, the main difference is in batting average.  Most of the people they differ on are around 10 points of batting average, which gives an extra 20 pts of OPS.  CHONE is probably regressing BABIP to some factor.  I’m not doing that, assuming that the 5 year average plus regression towards the mean is handling that.  Might be something to add later on.

I’m happy to see that they’re fairly close overall.  I wonder if the extra years (2003 and 2004) I’m using are skewing the results for the older players favorably.  It may be worth re-running without those years to see what the numbers look like.

Did you ever take a look at the residuals for CHONE?

sqrt(900) = 30.  Just sayin’.

The thing is, I don’t think we can just look at the standard deviation of OPS.  If we look at the standard deviations of all the components that factor into Giambi’s OPS, I get a variance of around .120 in either direction. 

Re: Andy Phillips, I did project him but forgot to include him.  You can probably just swap him out with Bronson Sardinha/Brett Gardner.

Did you ever take a look at the residuals for CHONE?

I haven’t, but people smarter than me have.

If I take out 2003 and 2004 from my projections, CAIRO ends up projecting 923 runs instead of 949.  That makes sense, declining players would get a boost from the years closer to their peaks.  I might have to revisit the weights I use for those seasons or exclude them entirely.

OCab for Garland straight up.

I was talking about runs, not OPS.

I was talking about runs, not OPS.

Ah, your post right after the post about the .900 OPS off the bench confused me.

More great news if Rivera signs for three years.

I have to say, so far the Hank/Hal ownership team is doing a superb job.  I’m frankly mystified by some of the criticism I’ve seen written about them.  Let’s take a look at this offseason’s moves:

1) Held firm on their offer to Joe Torre.  Whether you agree with the move/offer or not, they stuck by their guns, and weren’t afraid to say goodbye to a popular figure, refusing to flinch in the face of media scrutiny.

2) Hired Joe Girardi instead of Don Mattingly.  Again, chose the more experienced and better qualified candidate over the more popular one.  Again, didn’t fear media criticism for passing on the popular Mattingly.

3) Called ARod’s bluff when he opted out, forcing ARod to come back to the table.  But once ARod returned, they weren’t afraid to welcome him back and work out a deal.

4) Ponied up for Jorge Posada, not messing around with the most difficult-to-replace returning free agent.

5) Ponied up the dollars, but held firm on the years for Mo, again, calling a players bluff.

6) Have publicly stated a desire to make Joba a starter.

The occasional blustery remark notwithstanding, these moves all show a pretty sophisticated, business-like approach to running the Yankees.

I think that summed it up pretty well SAS. I agree.

Arod says negotiations are in “the bottom of the 5th.” WTF does that mean.

that they’re about to become official.

i’d guess.

Does anyone else find it disconcerting we haven’t heard from Brian Cashman in awhile?

Cash and Dick Cheney have been evacuated to an undisclosed location.

About to become official would be more like the bottom of the 8th to me.

Unless its raining that is

SAS: well put- now all we need is #7: fired Sterling and Waldman

The thing that worries me about Hank isn’t so much what he’s been saying, but rather that he’s been saying so much.  Shut.  Up.  PLEASE.  And let Cashman do his job.

Shut.  Up.  PLEASE.  And let Cashman do his job

One of the things I’ve been thinking is that Cashman is calling the shots on what to do, but Hank has been doing all the talking.  I’m still not sure if I have a problem with that.  If it allows Cashman to fly under the radar and get more work done than if he were having to constantly talk to the press, it is worthwhile.

Is that what is really happening?  I have no idea.  But the moves the Yankees have made thus far seem to basically be within the strategy Cashman has been operating, and yet a very quotable Hank has been doing all the talking.  So I wouldn’t say it isn’t happening either.

Yeah, my problems with Steinbrenner is that his quotes are so abrasive.

Tone it, down, man!

I was so happy that we didn’t have to hear his FATHER making offhand shots at various players (it’s really been, like, a DECADE since Steinbrenner last did that), so I am displeased that the son is taking over in that category.

As for Cabrera for Garland - HUH?

I guess I can see the Angels calling up Wood and giving him short, and therefore, this solidifies their pitching rotation, but why would Chicago make this deal?

Also, SG, obviously a totally minor point, but I don’t see any of the Yankee current backup outfielders getting anywhere near 250 plate appearances. If they were ever needed for that many at-bats, I think the Yankees would look outside the organization (a la Terrence Long/Aaron Guiel in 2006).

Finally, how about a thread for the 2007 AL MVP?

So we can mock the two writers who picked Ordonez over A-Rod!

Called ARod’s bluff when he opted out, forcing ARod to come back to the table.  But once ARod returned, they weren’t afraid to welcome him back and work out a deal.

In What world is this true? Called his bluff and then ponied up a record deal? It does not compute. Bora$$ and A-Freud played the Yankees like a fiddle, getting the max.

The two writers were both from the most dangrous city in the US.  A couple of homers, I am just glad it wasn’t some NYC reporter trying to send a message.  I am also suprised Boston didn’t find a way to vote for Papi.

I want to see why Gage and Hawkins voted against A-Rod.

I bet their explanation will make firejoemorgan!

In What world is this true? Called his bluff and then ponied up a record deal? It does not compute. Bora$$ and A-Freud played the Yankees like a fiddle, getting the max.

Come on!  Hank said: here’s our offer; if you opt out we’re not negotiating with you. A-Rod opted out but then came back and Hank said: we’re not negotiating; you can have our original offer minus the Texas money you cost us.  A-Rod took it.

That’s not a max offer.  It’s just not messing with someone who will be one of your most valuable employees for the next decade.  Maybe Hank could have gotten him for a year less or for $260 million instead of $275 but he’d have had to negotiate to do it and it would have meant publicly punishing A-Rod by paying less than the Yankees thought he was worth just a couple of weeks ago.  How would you feel if at a job interview, your potential employer said “I think you’re worth $75K per year but I’m only going to offer $65 because I doubt you can do better”?  You might take the job but I bet you’d be a little bitter.

One of the things I’ve been thinking is that Cashman is calling the shots on what to do, but Hank has been doing all the talking.

I agree.  As you said—and this was the subtext of my orignial post—the strategy being employed seems to be that of Cashman.  I would speculate that Hank is playing “bad cop” with a lot of his quotes, while Cashman quietly goes about the business of running the team as he sees fit.

In What world is this true? Called his bluff and then ponied up a record deal? It does not compute. Bora$$ and A-Freud played the Yankees like a fiddle, getting the max.

This is exactly the kind of criticism I’m giving Hank/Hal credit for ignoring.  They most definitely called ARod’s bluff when he opted out, such that ARod’s return to the Yankees had to be broached on the Steinbrenners’ terms.  It seems pretty clear that the Steinbrenners are happy with the contract, and they figure to have a better sense of ARod’s worth to the various Yankee business entities than you do.  Their track record with Mo and Torre certainly shows them to be capable of drawing lines in the sand on contracts.  They chose not to with ARod.  I’m guessing, given the logic behind most of their moves, there was a reason.

Looks like the Lowell situation is over. Staying for 3/37 according to reports. Smart move - that wall’s been very good to him.

Will The Hot Stove cool off now, or will Santana and Young Manny still make their moves?  It has been a pretty busy Month, but the Yankees seem to have most of their 2008 Team in place.

Looks like the Lowell situation is over. Staying for 3/37 according to reports. Smart move - that wall’s been very good to him.

Lowell gets a RAISE and gets to stay in the friendly confines of Fenway, the Red Sox get to keep their World Series MVP and the Yankees don’t commit four years to Lowell to play first base.

In What world is this true? Called his bluff and then ponied up a record deal? It does not compute. Bora$$ and A-Freud played the Yankees like a fiddle, getting the max.

At the end of the day, they gave A-Rod a fair market contract. If, back when we all thought A-Rod was not going to be a Yankee (and rightfully so, as he sure looked gone, I like a great line from Keith Law’s chat, when someone congratulated him on predicting A-Rod would stay, and he said, “Even I thought I was wrong when he opted out"), it was announced that the Dodgers/Angels/whoever signed A-Rod to a ten-year/$275 million contract, would anyone be shocked?

Of course not - when Alfonso Soriano gets 8 years/$160 million and Barry Zito gets 7 years/$126 million - 10 years/$275 million for a player of A-Rod’s age and stature seems normal.

So even if A-Rod played them like a fiddle, the end result was a good contract, so I think Steinbrenner did a fine job with it.

If he gives Rivera 4 years/$60 million, then okay, that is not fair market value for a player of Rivera’s age and stature, so I’d be fine with criticism of Steinbrenner for that, but he appears clearly saying he WON’T do that.

58. Posted at 5:45:25 pm on Monday, November 19, 2007 by JLatter

Will The Hot Stove cool off now, or will Santana and Young Manny still make their moves?  It has been a pretty busy Month, but the Yankees seem to have most of their 2008 Team in place.

One thing the Yankees do not have, outside of A-Rod and Cano (who ARE, of course, notable exceptions), are position players who look to be top level performers for the next five years.

Miggy would give them another one - but if the cost is too high, player-wise, forget it. Still, they should at least look into it.

And yes, 3 years/$45 million is, admittedly, skirting the edges of fair market value, too, but it’s definitely understandable - 4 years/$60 million is “I’ll just settle for Cordero” money.

If Giambi is healthy he wont be on the bench.