Friday, November 9, 2007
CAIRO Single Player Projector
For anyone who’s interested, I’ve made a single player projection spreadsheet tool with my CAIRO projections. I’ve only done this only for hitters for now. If there’s enough demand I can do it for pitchers too.
You can use this tool to see the different percentile projections for every player. You can also change their park and position to see how their numbers adjust and what their value would be at different spots around the diamond.
The spreadsheet can be downloaded here.
Comments
Excellent. And there will be demand for pitchers. I am demanding.
For some reason, A-Rod would do pretty freakin’ well as a SS for the White Sox.
Have you decided what CAIRO stands for yet?
What does it say about Encarnacion?
I think it should be-
Calculating
Ability
Indicators for a
Realistic
Outlook
Boy, slow day today.
FWIW, I tried the two scenerios:
ARod at 3B, Jeter at SS
Jeter at 3B, Tejada at SS
Need to make some assumptions about defense (like the whole process isn’t making assumptions?), but if you assume the ARod/Jeter combo are about what they were last year (roughly -20 runs), then they would be worth +70 (over replacement), or 7 wins.
If you assume Jeter 3B/Tejada SS are about average defensively (or a little below, like -5), then they are worth about +60, or 6 wins.
So a lot of ifs and buts, BUT if the Yankees could get Tejada for SS and move DJ, and it doesn’t cost much in the way of players (quantity over quality), it is definitely a good move. Okay, time for everyone to tell me I’m wrong
I wouldn’t mind having Tejada on the team, but I thought the knock on Jeter’s D was that he couldn’t go to his left. At 3b, the line protects your right so wouldn’t that open us up to more “Past a Diving Jeter” quotes?
All newspaper reports are that Tejada would be at 3B. The Yankees won’t move Jeter off SS for someone of comparable age, though, as Jake Barnes might say, it’s pretty to think so . . .
I wouldn’t mind having Tejada on the team, but I thought the knock on Jeter’s D was that he couldn’t go to his left. At 3b, the line protects your right so wouldn’t that open us up to more “Past a Diving Jeter” quotes?
That’s true, BUT 1) he may be able to play a step further off the line (because he goes fairly well to his right) 2) he may do the other things (like come in on the ball) well enough to cancel some of that out. Plus, he’ll obviously see less plays. Remember I’m not projecting him to be good, just roughly average.
The Yankees won’t move Jeter off SS for someone of comparable age
Tejada has an NTC. Maybe he’ll say he won’t move off of SS, and Cashman/Girardi may be willing to go to Jeter and ask him to move. Or not; I have no idea. But this time of year is the time for fantasy’s, so…
fantasy’s
or better yet, fantasies
Jeter’s D was that he couldn’t go to his left.
That is true, but wouldn’t the bullk of the improvement from having Jeter at 3rd just be that he’s not fielding as many balls as he would at SS? I honestly don’t know.
Tejada has an NTC
I honestly don’t think NTC’s are all that much of a problem to deal with. The Phillies paid Abreu $1.5M to waive his no trade clause. I guess my point is, if a team wants to move a player, how likely is that player to demand that he stays, especially if they want to trade him to a contender from a non-contender? Obviously there are lots of example of guys that don’t want to do that, but it’s not all of them that’s for sure. I could see Tejada agreeing to get traded to the Yankees and have a chance of winning something.
i get the impression that Tejada is VERY unhappy in Baltimore and would jump to play for a contender.
i still don’t think the Orioles would make a fair trade with the Yankees for Tejada.
moving Tejada to 3B to accomodate Jeter would just be comical.
Apparently the Angels appear willing to include Kendrick in a package for Cabrera.
If that’s the case, then the Yanks don’t have a chance, as Kendrick is a legitimate future All-Star at second, and the Yankees don’t have anyone major league ready as good as Kendrick (save, of course, the untouchables).
if the Angels get Cabrera, whither Alex Rodriguez?
the Angels trading for Cabrera would be a HUGE blow to Scott Boras, no??
I assume that would take them out of the bidding, if it happened. Right now it’s probably all just posturing to try to get a cheaper deal on the Angels part - either for ARod or for Cabrera
Who knows with the Angels’ new GM, and who knows what their budget really is, but a trade would make more sense (though the Angels, like, NEVER trade, or that’s the way it’s been).
First, the Angels are lousy with prospects. It seems like every time you turn around they have some damn guy coming up from the minors. Losing Kendrick <ideal, but you have to give to get.
Second, the money works better. I just don’t see the Angels swallowing $30 m for a free agent. I could sort of see them doing $25m for a guy who’d already played well in Anaheim.
Third, Garret Anderson is only signed through next year. If MCabrera really can’t stay in shape enough to play 3d, he replaces Anderson. Or Guerrero, whose defense is pretty bad, become the full-time DH and Cabrera plays in right.
I agree this is probably posturing on the part of the Angels, either for Cabrera or Rodriguez, but I would think that if they could, they would rather not obligate themselves to $300M.
So, no Yankees, Red Sox, .. now no Angels possibly, and the Mets won’t go that high? Are things starting to look bleak for ARod?
I didn’t realize that Joba’s ERA+ in 2007 was… 1192. That’s pretty cool.
it will probably drop to somewhere in the low 1100’s next year as a starter. we should set our expectations accordingly.
i don’t know where you heard these rumblings regarding kendrick, but that guy’s a player. i would really like that dude on our team. he was sort of like a red alert going off in my head every time the 8 hole came up against the halos. kind of cano-lite. 20 doubles in 300ABs, needs to learn the strikezone a little bit (18 carreer walks against 105Ks). but a .300, alleys hitter nonetheless. cano at 3rd kendrick at 2nd? only cuz i tend to think cano’s arm is better.
of course this is all based on who knows what. but let’s get ourselves as many SSs and 2Bs as we can.
........
IN OTHER NEWS, i just realized that B. Cronin was probably referring to a trade including MIGUEL Cabrera rather than MELKY Cabrera. please disregard everything i’ve just said. i am an idiot.
Eelz .. The Abbott stuff was so effin funny. I did’t read it til this morning. You so krazy..
Wish I could spell a word like didn’t.
Tips,hedgetrimmers and Abbot in the same paragraph.
Juan Miranda hit another HR in the AFL this evening, giving him five and an OPS approaching 1.000. This long ball was even off a lefty, raising his OPS to .559 against the southpaws. I realize Eric Duncan raked like nobody’s business in the AFL two years ago, but dare we believe that Miranda can be a useful bench player/platoon partner at 1B for Shelley Duncan in 2008? I hate his defense, but the guy really seems to have some talent hitting-wise. I suppose we’ll have to see what he does with AAA pitching for a few months before he gets taken seriously.
Tejada at 3B would improve the depth chart greatly since he could also back up SS and (probably) 2B. His splits also suggest he might platoon well with Betemit at 3B. I like S. Duncan as the regular 1B and backup RF. I have a hunch Joe G will get good output from platoon type players who can cover more than one position.
f the Angels get Cabrera, whither Alex Rodriguez?
the Angels trading for Cabrera would be a HUGE blow to Scott Boras, no??
Yes it would, a huge blow. A-Rod is a jackass, but he has also been ill-served by Boras. The negative publicity has damaged his brand badly and it will cost him a pant-load of potential product endorsements. It is possible that Boras would not share in those revenues which would explain alot.
Boras was betting on a bidding war for A-Rod that has not materialized because fans don’t really like him. How many owners are eager to buy into the whole A-Rod drama at the price he is demanding? If the Angels/Cabrera deal happens there will still be interested parties, but they will be looking for a discount. The better option for Bor-Rod might be to accept the arbitration deal with the Yankees and hope to repair his reputation. I’m not saying it’s likely, but things are moving in that direction.
Did anyone see this item in this morning’s NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/10/sports/baseball/10base.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=sports&adxnnlx=1194705305-yeQbY95ffbLBdsQrlBv7Fw
The Journey Within may resume.
CT Yankee, are you seriously suggesting that the Yankeees would, and, in fact, should, platoon Tejada and play Duncan every day?
28- This just makes me happier that Torre has moved on. It raises all sorts of questions: Did Torre want Bernie back and Cashman was standing in his way (which he should have)? We’ve seen a lot of veteran over rookie choices in games, but you wonder how much was going on the behind the scenes. This could certainly be one of them. What a disaster 07 would have been with Bernie on this team taking playing time away from Melky or Shelly Duncan against LHP.
CT Yankee, are you seriously suggesting that the Yankeees would, and, in fact, should, platoon Tejada and play Duncan every day?
Seriously. In his limited MLB career Shelley has OPS of 984 against LHP and 801 against RHP, and his fielding at 1B has not been horrible. I would definitely give him a chance as the regular 1B, given the alternatives there. OTH Tejada’s splits (L/R 912/763) complement Betemit’s (L/R 610/815) nicely, so maybe a platoon at 3B would be optimal.
Tejada gives Giriardi flexibilty because he can play the middle IF positions. In a platoon he wouldn’t necessarily be benched when he wasn’t at 3B. That makes him much more valuable to the team than say Morgan Ensberg, since he would then be taking ABs from someone like Alex Gonzalez on occasions when Jeter or Cano either DH or get a night off.
I see your point, CT, but it won’t work that way.
Shortstops who move off the position due to age and diminished agility don’t return there as subs except in absolute emergencies. I give you Ripken (3 games at SS after his transition), Banks (0 games), Garciaparra (0 games), Vern Stephens (3), Yount (0, though, to be fair, his shoulder injury didn’t allow him to throw sidearm). Then there’s A-Rod.
I doubt Girardi will do something next season for which, as far as I can tell, there is no precedent.
Shortstops who move off the position due to age and diminished agility don’t return there as subs except in absolute emergencies. I give you Ripken (3 games at SS after his transition), Banks (0 games), Garciaparra (0 games), Vern Stephens (3), Yount (0, though, to be fair, his shoulder injury didn’t allow him to throw sidearm). Then there’s A-Rod.
I doubt Girardi will do something next season for which, as far as I can tell, there is no precedent.
A-Rod was moved to fill a need at 3B, not because of his diminished agility. That would also be the case with Tejada if he were acquired. He may not be as good as he once was, but he’s good enough to back-up for Jeter and Cano. His bat is much better than A-Gon’s.
I see your point and it’s too bad the Yankees won’t.
I mean, seriously, what are the chances? Prevailing baseball “wisdom” is that once you move an established player off his position you don’t “mess with his head” by sending him back out to his old one for a few games. Sure, they switch back sometimes (Biggio, T. Fernandez). Can you give some examples from the last 30 years of an established SS being switched and then subbing in at the position regularly, to counter the examples I’ve given you?
You are probably right about the odds of it happening, but the Yankees have limited options in the offseason. Cashman may wait to see how things shake out in the spring and hope better deals open up before the non-waiver deadline.
Toby Harrah? Screw the candybar, they named a casino after that fella.
Roy Smalley? He was so good Gene Mauch welcomed him to the family.
Paul Zuvella? Sorry I’m done.
Old Thurm . . .
As usual: you the man.
Don’t encourage me Frog ole buddy, or I’ll be doing crappy lefty rehab updates again.
You never got to Greg Cadaret.
Is Bill Rhoden at the NYTimes an idiot of what. He just punlished a column that includes this:
“For me, Don Mattingly was the Yankee I looked up to when I was growing up in the ’80s,” Mark Gioia, 32, said as he emerged from the museum. “He came with Torre. They brought in a successful era. Now the Yankees are going in a new direction. I don’t know if that means they’re going forward or it’s back to the way it was in the late 1980s.”
Wrong! and . . . what?
Then Rhoden says:
“Only time will tell, but my sense is that this organization has lost part of its soul. Something of value has moved.”
Because Joe Girardi, universally considered one of the best young minds and best-prepared managers in baseball, has no value.
Sheesh.
Between Rhoden and Chass, I don’t know who’s worst.
Sorry: worse.
Am getting in on this late, but if Greg Cadaret is around then Eric Plunk can’t be far behind. Personally, I think Claudell Washington should play third.
Wasn’t Eric Plunk traded for Ricky Henderson twice?
Perhaps Bobby Meacham can play 3B and be the 3B coach at the same time.
Is Vizcaino a type A or type B? FA, not personality. Anyone know?
Also, I believe Meacham doesn’t hit enough to play 3B. But we could move Jeter to third and put Meach at SS. He goes to his left pretty well, as I recall. (What happens when he gets there is another matter.)
Fine, I looked it up myself, jerks.
He’s a type B, which means we should resign him and trade him at midseason if Ohlie and Edwar and/or another one of our 25-year olds have proven reliable.
You know what me likey? Jeter and Cano rated ahead of A-Rod by Elias.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm
I like the idea of re-signing Vizcaino too - if a reasonable deal can be worked out, say 2 years $10 million. I’d be willing to up the money a bit to keep the deal at two years. The thing about Vizcaino is, he’s a known quality. He’ll give the team 80 innings of 4.00-4.50 relief. I also think the Yanks should re-sign José Molina. He’s a great defensive catcher who will let the team rest Jorge (if he signs) 30-35 games per season.
Is “resign” incorrect for “re-sign”?
I am resigned to re-signing Viz.
I’m pretty sure Posada’s going to shop himself for the best possible offer and then come back and make the Yankees top it. He knows we have no other options. Don’t be surprised if his final contract looks like 4 years/56 million with a player option for a 5th year that can be bought out at 7 million.
Posada’s value is being driven up by the Mets at this point. If they decide to go in another, more economical, direction - I doubt Posada’s cost will be so astronomical. On the other hand, the Yanks really need Posada if they hope to compete next season.
The thing is, it makes little sense for a non-DH team to be offering Jorge 4 years, but you figure the Mets are salivating at the thought of taking him away from their crosstown rivals. He sure would give them the most complete NL lineup next season, too. Wow.
Still, I think he’ll be back with the Yanks, pockets bulging, taking a nightly treasure bath.
By the way, I would not trade Robinson Cano in a deal for Johan Santana. I’m not even sure whether the Twins will be able to afford Cano once he hits free agency, although I suppose they could trade him as well if need be. In any event, Cano could very well be the Yanks no. 3 hitter in 2009 after Bobby Abreu leaves. He’ll be 25 next season and entering his best years. Something even tells me that next season, given the slight uptick in his walk rate, he’s may really have a breakout season. Also, the Yanks have absolutely nothing and no one at 2B in the minors. It would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Moreover, the Yanks DO have pitching. Luckily, it’s just a rumor.
Bob Shirley was one of my favorite un-talented lefty’s of that era. Sarter,long man,middle,set up, he could be counted on to fail in almost any situation. He was very nice to the fans before the games. That counts for something.
Dealing Robby would be insane. Not even the Tampa mafia is that crazy.
I liked Bob Shirley, too. I remember (vaguely) what Golenbock wrote about him in Nettles’ autobiography: Something like how, Shirley was a great pitcher, but after seeing Guidry and Righetti, opposing batters were “relived,” so they teed off on Shirley.
Yeah, relived is the word.
As I said, it’s just a rumor - albeit a disquieting one. In the end, this is a slow news cycle and the papers have to feed the monster, especially on Sunday.
I feel it too. When do pitchers and catchers report?
It’s all right Froggy. You can devote the coming months before February to gaining a bit of culture and sophistication.
IE, my conscience stole your login and posted under your name. Either my conscience, or Don.
Don is really a recently divorced, highly alluring woman in her early 30s who just tries to rile all the boys here to expand her pool of prospects.
I also think the Yanks should re-sign José Molina. He’s a great defensive catcher who will let the team rest Jorge (if he signs) 30-35 games per season.
I couldn’t agree more. Molina has professed the desire too stay, what could possibly be holding that deal up?.
I don’t mind overpaying/giving too many years to Posada… can’t we waste a whole lot of money on a good career Yankee player once?
Cashman has probably told Molina that they’ll work something out after he addresses some more pressing issues. On the other hand, it can’t be that difficult put together a two year $4 million deal or thereabouts.
All these proposed deals (Santana, Cabrera) are all operating on the same assumption: that we need to put together a World Series caliber roster in 2008. If you challenge that assumption, none of it makes sense. Tons of money coming off the books at a time when Santana, Sabathia and Teixera are free agents. Let’s go to the mattresses with what we have in 08 and perhaps be a little creative with platoons or guys that have fallen of the radar that may be able to bounce back. Take all that money and throw it at Tex and Santana. Is it not that simple?
... and along those same lines, I’m very optmistic about:
- Our pitching/defense in 2008, so long as Andy Pettite (and Posada and Rivera) is on the team again. The rotation will be vastly improved if everyone stays healthy - I think it’s easy to forget that we had around ~250 IP from guys like Igawa, Rasner, Wright, Clippard, Karstens, etc. Granted there were some good starts in there, but I’ll take Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy over those guys any day, and I’m sure the ERA that comes out the other end will be far superior. If you add in 150 innings of 5.15 ERA from Mussina, it makes me even more optimistic.
- Our outfield defense improving, as Damon played < 300 innings in LF, while Matsui had the bulk of the time with close to 1000. Damon also had close to 400 innings in CF before Melky became the fulltime CF. If Melky’s defense improves as he gets a little more comfortable out there, things should be good, even with Abreu getting a year older.
- One small stat that caught my eye: Posada has by far (~12% more than the second worst, and ~100% more than the best) the most stolen base attempts/game in the AL last year. This is probably a function of the pitching staff (I remember Mussina was horrible at holding guys on). I would be surprised if Girardi didn’t know about this and had this on list of priorities for pitchers in spring training.
- The Yanks managed a .769 OPS from their 1B in 07. I’m betting Shelley Duncan can blow this away by 100 points all by himself, which should make the need to replace the 1.032 OPS from 3B not as pressing, especially if Damon and Abreu decide to show up in April and May.
So the hell with Santana and Cabrera. Make a move for someone solid and cheap at 3B with a strong glove who swings from the right side and can at least be a power threat to balance out the lineup (Crede or Ensberg seem to fit this
role) and spend the money on the bullpen.
I’m with ya J. We have the potential to be a really good team in 09.Teix and Sabathia might be a stretch but waiting a year for Johan is abetter idea than stripping our system for him now.
The MO PO and Andy situations need to be resolved or we could really suck in 08.
IE.. If Don is a hot chick I am surely a lefthanded, Sri Lankan,blonde,Chris Russo loving,mah jongg playing, Springsteen worshiping,Manny tee shirt wearing,tea totaling, Bush loving,large breasted brunette hating,hermaphodite , Who despises the Yankees.
Just don’t tell anyone.
Are you guys advocating punting 2008?
Are you guys advocating punting 2008?
I wouldn’t use the word punting. A lot hinges on Pettite, Rivera, and Mo, but if it all works out the way we hope, I don’t see how a rotation of Wang/Pettite/Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy/Mussina is ‘punting’. I don’t equate not snagging a big fish like Miguel Cabrera as ‘punting’. If they’re going to spend, spend on the bullpen.
anybody aware of what happened on september 30th 2001? yankees orioles at the stadium. clemens vs mercedes. game went 15 innings, tied at 1? wha?
retrosheet:
YANKEES 15TH: Sojo struck out; Soriano singled; Soriano was
caught stealing second (catcher to shortstop); Soriano
overslid 2B; G. Williams struck out; called for rain
after delay of 37 minutes; 0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 0 LOB. Orioles 1,
Yankees 1.
ooof missed the rain delay bit. i was looking at the box thru baseball ref. thanks yup.
Excellent news about our friend Posado:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/sports/baseball/12posada.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin
The gist: he said he’ll probably be back.
the gods of RLYW might want to add a new thread.
anybody aware of what happened on september 30th 2001? yankees orioles at the stadium. clemens vs mercedes. game went 15 innings, tied at 1? wha?
I was there, eelz. It was Ripken’s last game at the Stadium before retirement. Nasty weather.
Take all that money and throw it at Tex and Santana. Is it not that simple?
Well, it’s not so simple if those guys aren’t on the market.
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