In terms of pitching, the x factor, imo, is the role and ultimately the performance, of Joba, Hughes, and Melancon. If they (or at least two of them) pitch like many of us thought they would, the pitching staff could be very good at preventing runs. Plus, we don’t know exactly which Vazquez we will be getting.

Anyway, expect lots to change before we can really have useful projected standings

Lots? Aren’t the 25 man rosters for Boston and New York pretty much set, with the exception of maybe some bench moves?

for all the talk about Boston’s great defense

You mean their 13 gold glovers?

they would run faster if they used lighter mitts…

In terms of pitching, the x factor, imo, is the role and ultimately the performance, of Joba, Hughes, and Melancon.

There’s not a ton of difference between the projections if Hughes is the fifth starter vs. Joba, but yeah, that will have an impact.  I’m less concerned about the pen, simply because so far Girardi has shown the ability to piece one together, and because the overall impact on the team is less than for the position players or starters.

Lots? Aren’t the 25 man rosters for Boston and New York pretty much set, with the exception of maybe some bench moves?

Well, rosters for those two teams are close to set, but roles still need to be defined, which will impact the playing time projections.

Also, I expect a lot of flux with Toronto and Baltimore.  While it won’t make them contenders, it’ll impact how the three big dogs in the division do.  I was surprised when I ran this first set of projections, because given how bad Toronto and Baltimore project, there’s no longer a substantial AL East penalty.  I guess it makes sense, if you figure Roy Halladay was worth 6-7 wins by himself, which hurts every other AL East team’s record by 1 - 1.5 wins.

I’m seeing NYY with +3 RS, -36 RA, +5.4 wins.  If I go with my estimate of 10 runs on defense = 1.25 wins for the Yankees, I get 4.8 wins, so that’s close enough.

There’s not a ton of difference between the projections if Hughes is the fifth starter vs. Joba, but yeah, that will have an impact.

But what if either (or both, if given the opportunity over the course of the season) pitch like a #2, and at least one of them is a lights out 8th inning reliever?

if you figure Roy Halladay was worth 6-7 wins by himself, which hurts every other AL East team’s record by 1 - 1.5 wins.

I’m just naively wondering. Why is this? If Halladay’s wins are spread out over 162 games, shouldn’t he impact each AL East team’s record by only

(6-7)(18/162) = (.666 - .777) wins?

Slow weekend, so I’m going to try for a tech geek hijack.  Assuming that is, that some of you are in fact, tech geeks.

Is there any any way that one could get MLB.TV from one’s PC to one’s TV if one is not running windows media center?  Bear in mind that I’m interested in doing this because I’m a real cheap sumbitch, so don’t tell me to spend several hundred bucks on dedicated hardware.  I have a fairly robust wireless N network (consistent 300 mbps with excellent signal strength pretty much everywhere), but OTOH I have fairly dated computers (P4s, the best of which is a 3.2 GHz with 3 GB of RAM).  I could run a line from the router to the entertainment center if that would help (although it doesn’t seem like it should, since I’m certainly not getting 300 mbps into the router in the first place). 

I figure HD is out of the question with my 1.5 mbps DSL, but is switching to cable really going to be an improvement?  Do I really need something like a Roku box to do this, or is it possible to stream it through any old networkable Blue Ray player?

Oh, and Halladay pitched 47% (112/239) of his 2009 innings against the Yankees (40), Red Sox (29) and Rays (43), for whatever that’s worth.

[9] I’m not an expert b/c even though I think I *could* do all that stuff, I’m lazy

My newest computer - about a year old - has an HDMI output, in addition to a DVI.  So - if I were inclined - I could run the HDMI into my TV instead of my monitor.  Chances are, you don’t have an HDMI output, so…I think you can buy a card with a TV out jack on the back to run it into the TV.  Or get something like the the Apple TV, which if I’m correct is supposed to be like a hub to run anything digital into your TV.  I know you said not to spend “several hundred”, but I’m not sure how much the Apple TV is.  Maybe you can get it used for under a $100?

Probably not much help, but I think with an older computer your options are limited.

Since the Boston staff will average around 15 Ks/9 doesn’t that negate the impact of their gold glovers.  Theo should have gone for offense instead.

[9] I am trying to solve this one as well. It would be easier if I were willing to park the PC near the TV, then it’s just a matter of driving the video out into one of the TV inputs.

But what I really want to do is switch my video out over a wireless (G, in my case, but I can get to N if I need to). That seems like it’s going to cost somewhere around $200, depending one what device you choose. And I haven’t found anyone I know who does it, so that’s a $200 gamble.

Regarding bandwidth, yeah, the bottleneck isn’t your LAN, it’s the WAN connection. See here for Gameday specs and to test what’s being delivered to you. You need 3mb/s for the HD. My Comcast is delivering me 5-6 mb/s.

As [12] suggested, it should be pretty easy to do if you are willing to put a computer next to the tv. You could buy a video card with the correct output for less than $100 (probably a lot less). Installing it is easy; desktop computers snap together like lego bricks. You just need to figure out which types of slots are on the motherboard.  There are probably also external things that can convert the signal.

What sort of tv do you have? Normal tv’s are like low resolution monitors, 640x480, I think.

Without crunching the numbers, my gut would be that the Yanks are much better offensively vs the Sox, slightly worse in terms of pitching and much worse defensively.  Your results show the offenses tied and the Yanks being better at run prevention. 
Is this because of park factors?  Can we see the player by player detail?

[9 & 12] Why not just use a laptop, which if made in the last few years would have a VGA and/or S-video outputs or maybe HDMI, and use the tv as the main or second monitor?

The cost of a VGA/S-video/HDMI cord is a lot cheaper than setting up some sort of wireless video out that may or may not work and worrying about bandwith.

or bandwidth.

I’m just naively wondering. Why is this? If Halladay’s wins are spread out over 162 games, shouldn’t he impact each AL East team’s record by only

(6-7)(18/162) = (.666 - .777) wins?

Based on Halladay’s innings distributions from 2007 through 2009, and using his CAIRO projected 3.26 RA if he were a Blue Jay, and setting a replacement level starter to a 5.87 RA, here’s how Halladay’s impact would be distributed amongst the AL East.

vs. Baltimore Orioles: 3 GS, 20 IP, 6 RSAR (runs saved above replacement)
vs. Boston Red Sox: 5 GS, 34 IP, 10 RSAR
vs. New York Yankees: 5 GS, 36 IP, 10 RSAR
vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 4 GS, 29 IP, 9 RSAR

Although looking at his splits vs. the AL East over that time frame, he pitched far better against the Yankees than any of the other teams.

vs. Baltimore 3.41 RA
vs. Boston Red Sox, 4.01 RA
vs. New York Yankees, 2.84 RA
vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 4.89 RA.

So maybe a 1-1.5 win difference is overstating things slightly.

Your results show the offenses tied and the Yanks being better at run prevention.
Is this because of park factors?

Yeah, like I said:

“Although it looks like Boston’s offense is on par with the Yankees superficially, it’s not once you consider the park factors. The Yankees are probably about forty runs better than Boston offensively in a neutral park right now, although the converse applies to the pitching staffs.”

Here are Fenway’s park factors for runs from 2006 through 2009, with 2010 being a weighted average of those.

2006: 1.03
2007: 1.18
2008: 1.08
2009: 1.07
2010: 1.09

So in 2006, scoring in Fenway was 3% higher than average, in 2007 it was 18% higher than average, etc.,

Since they play half the games on the road, that means their park factor multiplier is 1.045.  For the Yankees, since DNYS actually played somewhat neutral in 2009 and because we only have one year of data, I’m still treating it as a league average park, although I’m assuming that at least some of the HR boost we saw last year is for real so the HR factor is bumped up a bit (I’m using 1.05).

So what that means is if we move Boston’s 861 runs to a neutral stadium, they’d score 861 / 1.045 runs, roughly 824 runs.  Similarly, put the Yankees 864 runs in Fenway, they’d project to score 903 runs, although obviously we don’t know exactly how a team may be suited to a park.

Can we see the player by player detail?

Here’s Boston position player breakdown.  I don’t have pitching numbers posted yet though.

And here are the Yankees.

My Comcast is delivering me 5-6 mb/s.

Where are you?  And is that consistent?  I hate Comcast with the heat of a thousand suns, but I’d be willing to switch to them for broadband if it was part of a grand scheme to get TV without paying them for that.

What sort of tv do you have?

I’ve got plenty good TVs (kids, you know?).  Best one (also closest to the computer, modem, router, etc) is a 37 inch 1080p LCD. It does have a DVI input.  I guess I could go with “really long DVI cable” technology, or hide one of the other computers in the bottom of the entertainment center.  So then I guess the question is how is the MLB.TV feed going to look on that screen?  And how much better will it look if I upgrade my broadband connection?

Computers generally have a higher resolution than TVS. If you hook your computer up to your TV, something I just did for my parents (VGA and an audio cord - about $10), it should look about the same. Right now, few connnections are giong to get you much better than 480p resolution. THat’s better than SD but not as good as regular HD.

Also, buy your cords online, not in stores. It will generally cost at least P less online than it will in a place liek radio shack. I suggest newegg.com.

You want to go with DVI ro HDMI if possible.

Also, if you have the ability to hardline in do, you almost always get better bandwidth on a cable than wireless.

I have no idea what the maximum resolution MLB.tv streams at is but 1080p is 1920x1080 which is the same as a high end computer monitor. Either DVI or HDMI should be able to handle that resolution. HDMI can carry sound while DVI cannot. However I’ve read about some people getting a better picture through DVI when going computer—> HDTV. I believe it has something to do with HDMIs “content protection” capabilities. If your video card doesn’t have DVI or HDMI you can buy a cheap but current low end card like an HD4350;
http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.aspx?Submit=ENE&N=2010380048 106792627&bop=And&ActiveSearchResult=True&Order=PRICE
I’m not 100% certain but I don’t think it’s possible to use HDMI/DVI cords longer than a few feet due to signal degradation.

Yeah, apparently you can buy very long DVI and HDMI cables, but they won’t necessarily work for the resolution you want to transmit.  Sounds like the smartest/easiest move might be to stick the PC in the entertainment center and invest in a wireless keyboard/mouse.  Either with or without a video card upgrade (since I’ve already got DVI out).

Anyway, the thing that appeals to me about MLB.TV instead of EI is that it goes with me, instead of being stuck in the cable box.  Like I said, I’d rather pay Comcast for a better internet connection than for a bunch of programming that I’ll never watch just so I can get the programming that I want.

Orioles fans are going to intensely hate SG for putting them at the bottom of the list even though they conclusively beat out the Blue Jays average wins by a whopping 0.3 wins a season.

Sounds like the smartest/easiest move might be to stick the PC in the entertainment center and invest in a wireless keyboard/mouse.

If all you wanted to do was share the game on the TV, yeah. It would also be the easiest for me, since my computer is a laptop and so it could temporarily sit there, as Ted suggests.

I normally watch the game on the TV, while watching the game chatter here. That’s why I’ve stuck with MLBEI. Hey, maybe I’ve stumbled on my “justification” for getting a netbook ! The main laptop sits on the TV and shows the game, the netbook puts me in the game/complaint thread.

Where are you?  And is that consistent?

Unincorporated Washington County, Oregon (10 miles outside the Portland OR suburbs). Consistent ? Well, I don’t monitor continuously, or really at all. But I do the MLB TV bandwidth check every oncet in a while, always comes in the 5’s.

The WAN link is the slow portion, so once its inside the house, it really doesn’t matter whether you’re running 10BaseT, 100BaseT, Wireless G or N.

Unless your wireless is still a/b, about the only way your link back to the router would be the slow spot would be if you had a lot of RF noise in the environment or any kind of concrete walls between you and the wireless router.

The reason you bother with g/n is for printing/file transfers within your home LAN, not to get a faster connection to the interweb. I just upgraded my router to N, mainly to get a gigabit ethernet port to hang a SAN off (future purchase). My new router also has a USB port with a thumb drive stuck in it for “shared” storage, plus “guest” mode that I can set up to allow visitors to connect to the internet and use the printers, but nothing more.

I hate Comcast with the heat of a thousand suns

I looked into Clear wimax, which is in the 1mb/s range, and they don’t have a tower out here in the country yet. Verizon’s substation isn’t close enough to deliver DSL, much less FIOS. I’m kinda stuck with Comcast.

The WAN link is the slow portion, so once its inside the house, it really doesn’t matter whether you’re running 10BaseT, 100BaseT, Wireless G or N.

Yeah, I get that.  I upgraded to N for better range, not a faster connection.  My house does present some issues with brick/block walls and concrete slabs.  The PC in the finished basement could never stay connected to my old G router for more than a few minutes at a time, but it works like a charm with the new N router and card (which I got dirt cheap on ebay, BTW).

I’m kinda stuck with Comcast too.  Well, for TV anyway.  That’s why I hate them so much.  But like I said, it’s looking like the problem may be that I’m just buying the wrong service from them.

Anyway, thanks to all for helping me talk my way through some of this stuff.

Orioles fans are going to intensely hate SG for putting them at the bottom of the list even though they conclusively beat out the Blue Jays average wins by a whopping 0.3 wins a season.

There are actual real live Orioles fans?

But like I said, it’s looking like the problem may be that I’m just buying the wrong service from them.

With hulu, espn360, mlb.tv, not-so-legal streaming of most sporting events, and torrents, there is almost no need for regular tv service if you have decently fast internet.

“There are actual real live Orioles fans?”

E.g. my in-laws, who aren’t entirely happy about Rilkekind and Rilkekindstrich being raised as Yankees fans.

There are actual real live Orioles fans?

I lived in Baltimore in the late 80’s. There are still a few fans, even though the team left town in ‘88. I hear there are small groups of diehards that still visit the stadium site during the season in the hopes of attracting an expansion team.

Rilkekind and Rilkekindstrich

Kids and… I’ll guess cat ?

It just always seemed to me that there are more characters on The Wire than Orioles fans in existence.

my in-laws, who aren’t entirely happy about Rilkekind and Rilkekindstrich being raised as Yankees fans.

Do they not care about the long-term happiness of Rilkekind and Rilkekindstrich? Because Brooks Robinson is NOT walking through that door, and even if he did the Yankees would just sign him away from the O’s once he hit free agency.

[27] Is it true they have a band that still plays in their honor?

“Kids and… I’ll guess cat ?”

Sorry - that’s “Rkid” and “Rkid prime”.  We actually call them “Pi” and “Pi-prime” (or now just “Prime”).  No doubt I had resolved not to do that kind of thing before becoming a parent.

I don’t know how the Orioles are ever going to be good again.  It’s vexing to me, not that I want them to succeed per se, but am I going to spend the next forty years with the Yankees and RS slugging it out without variation?

I don’t know how the Orioles are ever going to be good again.

I don’t follow them closely enough (obvious reasons), but I believe they have some nice pieces on the farm, and some fairly good young players on the team.  One potential superstar.  Can they be Blue Jays good (85 win team) soon?  Yeah, definitely.  90-win good?  Maybe if some of their young pitching pans out, and they get smarter about FA signings, yes.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there were a 4 team race in the AL East starting 2012…

This is my new favorite subject. I don’t have much useful to add. We unplugged DirecTV and are working off our alleged 7mbps Qwest connection. Anything from my laptop (recent macbook pro with DVI::HDMI connection) looks great, but I haven’t tested the mlb.com content. What MC said seems most logical: dedicate a computer to the setup and get a wireless mouse. Fortunately there are a lot of mac minis floating around Seattle/craigslist. [Yes, this is a Mac town, trust me.]

oh and… streaming Netflix thru the bluray player, along with a DTV antenna of decent quality so I can watch the Olympics. Tv is an LCD w/ 1080p resolution.

“recent macbook pro with DVI::HDMI connection”

You mean “adapter” I guess?  I was looking for an HDMI out for my mbp just the other day…

You mean “adapter” I guess?

My guess too.  I don’t know from macbooks, but HDMI outputs seem to be restricted to higher end video cards for now.  DVI/HDMI adapters OTOH, are practically free.

Anyway, now I’ve got myself thinking about building a dedicated PC for my home theater.  I mean, if you’re going to spend a couple hundred bucks on a blue ray player anyway, why not get yourself a blue ray burner and a 500 GB SATA drive and build yourself a really kick-ass DVR instead?

adapter, yes. $10 I believe.

I mean, if you’re going to spend a couple hundred bucks on a blue ray player anyway, why not get yourself a blue ray burner and a 500 GB SATA drive and build yourself a really kick-ass DVR instead?

Exactly.