Although comparing modern short relievers with relievers from the past who pitched longer outings is not really fair

Wouldn’t it be *fair* if you used a version of WAR?  One of the ideas behind WAR is to try to make it apples-to-apples, by saying how much value the pitcher has added.  Looking at BaseballProjection, the only “reliever” who is ahead of Mo is Eckersley…and he only had about 17 of his almost 58 WAR as a reliever.  Mo has about 47 WAR through 2008, almost all as a reliever.

Wouldn’t it be *fair* if you used a version of WAR?

Yeah, I think WAR would mitigate that somewhat since it accounts for IP as well as rate of performance.

We have to assume that Mo’s rate of performance wouldn’t be quite as good if he was pitching 90-110 innings a year, so then the question is IP times RA.  Is it more valuable to pitch 70 innings of 2.00 RA than 100 innings of 2.75 RA?  If we set replacement level at a 5.00 RA for a reliever, 70 IP of 2.00 RA is worth 23.3 RSAR, where as 100 IP of 2.75 is worth 25 RSAR.

So yes, Mo is awesome.

Including starters, who’s better, batter-by-batter (that sounds funny)? Only Addie Joss and Ed Walsh, who both played in the early 1900s, have lower WHIPs. No one has a better ERA+. Not even close.

Everyone knows the Yanks won the World Series because of their enormous payroll.  Mariano had nothing to do with it.

In general, I don’t go in for all the role model crap.  But we’re talking about a guy who always wants the ball, never makes an excuse, never disrespects an opponent or a teammate, keeps himself incredibly fit and just plain performs year in and year out.  My son tries to model himself after Rivera, and frankly, I couldn’t be more pleased.

Including starters, who’s better, batter-by-batter (that sounds funny)? Only Addie Joss and Ed Walsh, who both played in the early 1900s, have lower WHIPs.

As far as I’m concerned, once you adjust for era there’s no one better on a per batter basis, except for maybe John Cangelosi.  Guy had a career WHIP of .750 in 13 seasons.  Amazing.  Granted, he only pitched 3 innings, but still…

What about 2001?

My uncle tried to tell me that he’d rather have Joe Page than Mo. I said, “I totally agree if I were trying to put together a shitty team.”

To be fair to these other relievers, it’s not like Mo has never blown big post-season games (1997, 2001, 2004).  To me, much of Mo’s greatness has been in his ability to bounce back from these failures and be dominant again.  So a guy like Papelbon, who was perfect before this year, still has a chance to bounce back and put together a resume similar to Mo’s.  He’s got a LONG way to go, because Mo has now set an incredibly high standard of health and longevity, but I wouldn’t lump Papelbon in with some of these other guys.

Everyone knows the Yanks won the World Series because of their enormous payroll.  Mariano had nothing to do with it.

To be fair, they are paying him $15 million a year, but much of the whining about the payroll comes from RS and Mets fans. I don’t think it requires much of a leap of faith to believe that both of those big money franchises would have given Mo a similar contract if they had been smart enough to sign him and patient enough to develop him, despite the serious injury he sustained early in his career.

I think the most interesting questions going forward are how long can Mo continue to pitch at this level, as well as how long he will want to do it.

Rivera better then Papelbon?  You can’t be serious.  I think it was Bobby V who said you can make a case that Mo is/was the greatest pitcher ever, he’s certainly the greatest reliever ever.

I know he was listing all the closers in the playoffs this year and saying that each of them sucked at least once, but was anybody in the world surprised that Ryan Franklin blew a game? I don’t think so. I don’t think even Franklin and his mother were surprised. Same goes for Brian Fuentes.

So a guy like Papelbon, who was perfect before this year, still has a chance to bounce back and put together a resume similar to Mo’s.

He also has a chance to go down the Gagne route.  The guy had 84 consecutive saves and people were claiming he was the best in baseball.  Then what happened?
Steroids? Maybe.
Papelbon has been very good for a few years now but closers are often measured by their longevity.  Very few have been as consistent as Mo for so long.

I think the most interesting questions going forward are how long can Mo continue to pitch at this level, as well as how long he will want to do it.

He says 5 years, and I am inclined to believe him.

Between the shoulder injury and minor old-man aches like the bum ribs, there is probably no chance of Mo going 5 more years. I think he was just high on victory when he said that.

He says 5 years, and I am inclined to believe him.

If Mo is right, I don’t see how any reasonable person (or even a mediot) could argue in favor of keeping Joba or Hughes in the pen as the 8th inning reliever for that long.

He also has a chance to go down the Gagne route.  The guy had 84 consecutive saves and people were claiming he was the best in baseball.  Then what happened?
Steroids? Maybe.

I doubt it. Papelbon isn’t smart enough to know which end of the syringe to stick into his ass.

Looking back, it was pretty apparent Mo was injured in the World Series. He was using a heating pad on his sore ribs (no big deal, but I have never seen him do that before) and in game 6 the gun only had him at 86-87. I am not a believer in the gun as a measure of ability and Mo no longer throws much over 92, but that definitely was odd to me.

That Rivera was still effective at 87 seems an indicator that he really could pitch for awhile more.

Ask the splinters formerly known as Joe Mauer’s bat if Mo can still be effective with reduced velocity.

Mo is awesome.

Here’s a list of all the pitcher who accumulated 40+ saves from age 39 on.

BB Ref: Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2009, From Age 39 to 98, (requiring SV>=40), sorted by greatest SV

Looks like the most recent guys comparable in age to Mo were Doug Jones and Dennis Eckersley, both of whom pitched through age 43.  Mo’s better than either was at age 39, so I don’t think it’s impossible that he could last one year longer than them.

You also have Trevor Hoffman still going strong at roughly the same age as Mo, which is another indicator that it may not be anomalous to expect an elite closer to last into his 40s without becoming a problem, even if we should expect a decline in efficacy.

That Rivera was still effective at 87 seems an indicator that he really could pitch for awhile more.

The caveat I’d have with that is if the opposition was looking for 92 and he was pitching at 87, he could have been effective more due to the difference in expected velocity versus actual velocity, rather than the actual pitches coming in at 87 mph.  Not sure how a full season of throwing 87 would end up looking, but I can’t imagine it’d be all that great.  As great as Mo was this year, he wasn’t as good as he was in 2008.  He still has room to decline and be very good, but at some point that won’t be true.

“That Rivera was still effective at 87 seems an indicator that he really could pitch for awhile more.”

He can go for 10 more years after he starts throwing a change. It’s supposed to be very tough to throw the cutter and a change, but Mo can do it.

The caveat I’d have with that is if the opposition was looking for 92 and he was pitching at 87, he could have been effective more due to the difference in expected velocity versus actual velocity, rather than the actual pitches coming in at 87 mph.  Not sure how a full season of throwing 87 would end up looking, but I can’t imagine it’d be all that great.  As great as Mo was this year, he wasn’t as good as he was in 2008.  He still has room to decline and be very good, but at some point that won’t be true.

Fair enough, but as you imply, he’d probably more likely be at 89-90 than 87 when healthy. The question is if he starts to suffer more niggling injuries which do not incapacitate him but sap his effectiveness. I’m sure they’ll be somewhat more frequent, but just how frequent is probably hard to predict. He does have that super clean motion.

Ask the splinters formerly known as Joe Mauer’s bat if Mo can still be effective with reduced velocity.

Girardi is a genius!

[33] Can’t be that tough.. Pettitte has done it for years.

According to Gameday, Mo’s velocity was 90 or above for 16 of the 24 pitches that he threw in the 9th inning in Game 6.

[22] makes me sad. I’m not going to believe that Mo regresses or declines.

I’m more of the belief that Mo will come back stronger and better next season (and beyond).

Sorry, [33] should be [23] in [26].

I do think it’s time for them to implement a rule next season (at least during the regular season) in which Mo is only used for one inning per outing. The other relievers will have to figure out a way to get that dastardly third out in teh ate without the help of Mo, Joba, or Hughes.

The other relievers will have to figure out a way to get that dastardly third out in teh ate without the help of Mo, Joba, or Hughes.

Robertson is up to it. And I’m still optimistic about Melancon.

[27] So, he was at = or > 90 on 2/3rds of his throws despite the rib injury, cold weather, and increased post-season workload?

5 years, sounds just fine to me.

I’m more of the belief that Mo will come back stronger and better next season (and beyond).

Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology. We have the capability to make the world’s fix bionic closer.

I think Marte has a chance to play a fairly big role next season as well.

Robertson is up to it.

Who is this Rob-ert-son you speak of?

/Girardi’d

I still can’t get over how awesome Marte was. Misses practically the whole year, sucks, and then suddenly develops a Mo-like ability to not just deal with pressure, but thrive under it.

If Mariano Rivera were an animal, he’d be a shark, a remorseless killing machine. Except, by all accounts, he’s a very nice guy, so I guess he’d be Skura the Gentle Shark.

[33] Silly Rich. We all know LHP relievers can ONLY be LOOGY’s. How would they ever manage to retire a RHH without having a platoon advantage?

[36] I thought Mo was a soul-eater?

I do think it’s time for them to implement a rule next season (at least during the regular season) in which Mo is only used for one inning per outing.

Yeah, but regular season is to pace Mo so he can be more Mo-ish in the post season.

We all know LHP relievers can ONLY be LOOGY’s. How would they ever manage to retire a RHH without having a platoon advantage?

Binder.

I thought Mo was a soul-eater?

Spiritual shark.

Robertson + Marte. The new bridge to Mo. Joba and Phil start or pen and that’s it. Time to be unequivical with them.

Joba and Phil start or pen and that’s it. Time to be unequivical with them.

Yep, time to issue an ultimatum to those two slackers. If you don’t become aces by the ASB, you go to the BP for life. There is no reason a 24 and 23 year old shouldn’t have reached there full potential by opening day next season. In fact, I say the first time either of them has a bad start to send a message to the other, we send that guy to the minors for the rest of the season, and have them pitch in the BP in AAA.

Yay Mo.

Probably the greatest reliever ever.

No way though is he the best pitcher ever. That is silly, to be kind.

I don’t see both Joba and Phil not being in the bullpen for a long stretch in 2010.

IOW, I don’t believe that Cashman does not view one or the other as a full time reliever, Mo’s heir perhaps.

I’m from Missouri, show me.

[35] The “fresh arm” syndrome played a big roll.

Ice him in 2010.

I’m from Missouri, show me.

If you’re from Missouri, you need to be shown because you’re illiterate.

No way though is he the best pitcher ever. That is silly, to be kind.

He’s the pitcher with the best per inning record ever. Of course, were Walter Johnson or Tom Seaver or Randy Johnson only used 1-2 innings at a time, there’s a decent chance they would have been better.

If Hughes is the fifth starter next season, the Yanks can skip him enough to limit him to 160 IP or so - which is where his limit would be.

I would consider a six man rotation, or a “6 guys in 5 rotation spots” with Joba and Hughes combining for 1 start.  Gotta keep CC fresh too.

[48] Phil Hughes has to be a starter next year no questions asked. Yeah, he thrived in the 8th inning for some time, but it’s clear that it’s not the role for him. He’ll be real good next year, and so will (drumroll): Jesus Montero as the Yankees DH!!!

Montero is too young for a DH.  He loses a great deal of value without a position.  If he can even play 80 passable games per year at catcher, he would be a huge boon for the Yanks.  First though, he needs some seasoning in AAA.  As for Hughes, he will have his growing pains next season just as Joba did this year - but he should definitely be in the rotation.

The “fresh arm” syndrome played a big roll.

I think it was more of Marte FINALLY being healthy and back in game shape. There were rumors he was pitching hurt from the moment the Yankees acquired him last season. He does have a pretty decent track record of being a very effective reliever.

[51] Completely agreed. If they think The Jesus’ future is only as a DH, they should just trade him now while his value is extremely high and use him in a package to acquire a proven asset that can immediately help the team’s chances to repeat, such as another frontline starter or young talented OF.

The Yanks don’t need to trade for a starter.  They have already have CC, AJ, Hughes and Joba.  Pettitte will most likely return.  And the minors is stocked with guys who can possibly help out next year including Ian Kennedy, Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister.

The Giants might want to consider killing themselves. What the hell was that?

The Giants might want to consider killing themselves. What the hell was that?

Not scoring a TD from the 4 yard line is ridiculous.

Good thing the YAnkees won the Wold Series or I might be annoyed.

Oh well. Go Rutgers!

It’s clear that Coughlin sucks at Spags was the real deal. Fire this loser.

Coughlin or Sheridan…or Gilbride?

Real baseball fans prefer hockey as their off-season sport.

Real baseball fans retreat into a cave in the mountains until February 15th.

Nobody prefers hockey as an anytime of the year sport.

Real baseball fans watch blues videos, read books about Scottish whisky maltings and watch The Fifth Element,again.
Good to see ya IE. NYY won the world series. It was awfully cool.

The Yanks don’t need to trade for a starter.

But what if Pettitte retires, Lackey has offers in AJ’s contract range, the Yankees scouts are convinced Jesus is never going to make it as a catcher or any position other than DH, and suddenly Felix Hernandez is on the trade market. Would that not be a reason create a package around The Jesus? Or the Jays put Doc on the market and are allowing a window for a contract extension?

I would happily trade Montero as part of a package for Felix Hernandez. However, I would prefer he stay in Seattle (and I hate Seattle) because it’s better for baseball. Just like Mauer should stay in Minnesota.

It would take much more than Montero to land King Felix.  It would take Montero, Austin Jackson, Cano, and Joba/Hughes at the very least.

I really doubt that Montero’s trade value slips all that much if he rakes at AAA but proves that he can’t handle catching.  The fact that 1B is blocked in NY doesn’t make Jesus a pure DH as a trade chip.

[66]  Right.  IOW, they’re not trading for Felix.

It would take much more than Montero to land King Felix.  It would take Montero, Austin Jackson, Cano, and Joba/Hughes at the very least.

Maybe we can conspire to restore Bill Bavasi to power.

[65] But what if they decide they are shopping him, and Boston has an offer in for him, so it’s let the Sox get him or try to top their offer? I agree, I hope he stays in Seattle.

[67] I think his trade value as a 1B is lower than his trade value as a C. If he doesn’t rake at AAA or has another injury, his trade value will go down as well.

Not saying I want them to trade Montero, but if the plan is to turn him into a DH I would rather they take advantage of his extremely high trade value right now than wait around with the chance it goes down or miss out on adding an elite player who could help them repeat just because The Jesus will be an above average DH.

My hope is they can develop him catching ability enough that he can be Posada’s replacement, or at least that he can split time with another catcher (Romine? Cervelli?) and then DH when he isn’t catching, or turn him into a passable corner OF.

It would take Montero, Austin Jackson, Cano, and Joba/Hughes at the very least.

A pitcher’s health is too fragile to give up that kind of package.

I’m not saying the Yanks should do it.  That’s just what the asking price is going to be.

Also, the Yanks are stocked with pitching.  If they are going to make a trade, they should keep their one position player with big time upside and use some of their minor league arms to land an everyday guy if one becomes available.

We don’t need Jesus in the majors this year. Let him develop in AAA, as a catcher, or as you say an OF. It gives them more ways to move him up. A 19 year old who can’t be trusted with any kind of glove on his hand is kind of silly.

I think we need an OF more than another pitcher. Last I heard, Nady won’t be back until after opening day, Damon may want too many years, and Hairston is Hairston. It sure would be nice to be able to have Damon as the DH/5th OF.

If they don’t chase an OF, I think you have to plan on Damon in left, and that leads you to Matsui as DH.

Nady said in a recent interview he expects to be ready for opening day, will start a throwing program in December, and is willing to workout for teams to prove his health if it will get him a chance at a starting job.

If Damon wants more than a year, why not sign Cameron and Nady and Matsui on one year deals. Go with the plan of Nady/Cameron/Swisher in the OF with Matsui at DH. If anyone gets hurt, isn’t ready for opening day, or completely collapses offensively, Melky is available to takeover. Gardner can hang around as 5th OF/defensive substitute/pinch runner.

They will have 13 positional players. They could carry 5 OF plus a DH assuming they only carry one BUC and one UIF.

No one is stocked with pitching. Witness our three days rest drama last week.
114 wins and yet eveyone was muddin’ up their skivvies. My self included. Best team in baseball would have been running Chad frikkin Godown.
Yeah sure CC would have won game 7. We hoped. Thank Mo, Phillys staff was more wrecked than ours.
Thank Mo indeed.

For the majority of his career, Nady has been a marginally above league average hitter and a slightly below league average fielder that lacks plate discipline.

I wouldn’t mind signing him to a cheap contract, but it would be with the idea of trading him when a reasonable deal presents itself rather than as an important part of this team.

otf, the problem in the WS was mainly due to the brilliant move of turning their #4 and #5 starters into set-up men. Hopefully, they will move past that for good next season.

I think instead of stocked they are trying to say: bring Pettitte back, make Joba and Hughes fulltime starters, and if any injuries/innings limits present themselves give IPK/Nova/McCallister a shot.

Which is an understandable position since the only other FA SP worth pursuing is Lackey and he is going to get an AJ-esque contract. Not to mention, the crazy asking price for Felix or Doc if they were to become available in the trade market.

I do agree though, NO team is ever stocked with pitching. Except the Red Sox, they have 12 aces.

Trevor Hoffman?

Please.  Can’t close an all-star game and couldn’t get Brosius out.

They made Joba a reliever because he sucked as a starter. If he had shown anything from, I don’t know, August onwards, he would have been the 4th starter in the playoffs. It wasn’t a “brilliant move” (I assume you’re being sarcastic), it was a necessary one.

Not to mention, Felix is about to hit free agency. Not sure if he’s a Boras guy, but there’s no way he signs an extension before testing the market. If Cashman wants him, I’m guessing he’ll just wait.

Want to know what I think?

Phil Hughes should start.

Felix does have two years left before free agency. His agent is someone named Alan Nero. I am sure he would be open to a sizable extension since he is risking losing out on his giant payday if he insists on waiting two years to dip his toes in the waters of free agency. Also, it would certainly boost his salary in 2010 and 2011 to sign a big extension instead of taking arbitration (he made only $3.8M last season).

[82] He needs to be stretched out, secretly though.

If you’re from Missouri, you need to be shown because you’re illiterate.

Mark Twain and T. S. Eliot say hi.

It would take much more than Montero to land King Felix.  It would take Montero, Austin Jackson, Cano, and Joba/Hughes at the very least.
I think this is vastly overstating the case. Maybe you should take another look at the packages that got Santana or Cliff Lee. I suspect Joba or Hughes plus Montero would be a very solid bid and I’d be surprised if they get much more.

Mark Twain and T. S. Eliot say hi.

Twain, I’ll give you. I’m not on board with Eliot.

T.S. Eliot just looks good because of his unsustainably high BAPIP (batting average on poems and plays).

Although comparing modern short relievers with relievers from the past who pitched longer outings is not really fair,

What’s not really fair is comparing anyone to Mo.

“I am the Mo, thy Mo.  Thou shalt have no other Mos besides me.”

Hughes has never impressed me with his stuff, as a starter that is. I think Cashman may feel the same way and Phil stays in the pen.

Of course a starter is more valuable, which is why some feel Mo is the best pitcher of all time, and thus Mo should have been a starter, so he could have proven even more valuable than he has proven since 1996 as a mere relief pitcher.

Thus, natch, relievers are a dime-a-dozen and Phil must start. Or something like that. But then I’m illiterate. Thank goodness for thurm’s Katt, who secretly types my posts whilst I drink Scotch.

Thank goodness for thurm’s Katt, who secretly types my posts whilst I drink Scotch.

I read this and it immediately became my future goal.

So I guess this is the complaint thread.  Surprised it took this long.

[86] With Santana at least, look at the package and realize it was probably less than what they were asking from the Yankees.  Felix is also younger than Santana.  I think it would take Montero, Joba/Hughes, Jackson, and one other prospect (McCallister, maybe).

I’m not sure why people are worried about innings-limits from the starters, at least not if Pettitte comes back.  They’ll again get 600+ IP from the top 3.  Joba was the #4 last year and had 157.1 IP, and he’ll get more next year.  No other pitcher started more than 9 games, and Hughes as the #5 - even if he is limited to 160IP - should blow past that.  Sure, someone could get hurt again which could screw stuff up.  But though you want to have a contigency for someone getting hurt, I don’t think you should *expect* someone to go on the DL.

Majors, minors and playoffs, Hughes threw 111.2 innings this year.  Even with a strict +30 limit he could easily replace the Gaudin, Mitre and Wang starts.  Assuming the other starters avoid major injury, the Yankees should be just fine in the SP department with Chamberlain throwing 190 innings and Hughes 140.

Hopefully, they do a better job of pacing Hughes over the course of the season than what they did with Chamberlain.

Kennedy can take the starts that Hughes needs to skip.

Kennedy can take the starts that Hughes needs to skip.

If they keep Gaudin in the majors, it would probably be him.

Or course, we don’t know what Hughes’s limit is yet.  It may be closer to 175.  The “+30 rule” I believe was off their previous high, which was 146 from Hughes (though several years ago).  If his limit is 175, they may only have to skip him where the schedule allows it.  E.g. perhaps early in the year and around the All Star break.  And then just be judicious with taking him out of games after 5IP if the game isn’t close, even if he’s pitching well.

Of course a starter is more valuable, which is why some feel Mo is the best pitcher of all time…

Sure, and some felt the Yankees should sign Andruw Jones and Kosuke Fukudome a couple of years ago.  What’s your point, that ‘some’ are egregiously wrong sometimes?

As long as you have an effective Mo, using Joba or Hughes in the bullpen before making the determination that they can or can’t start is inefficient.  When starting pitching is arguably the hardest thing to get externally, either via trade or through free agency, why wouldn’t you give them a few chances to show whether or not they can start, whether you are ‘impressed’ with their stuff as starters or not?  Apparently, there are actual people with jobs in baseball who are more impressed than you.

How would it work for IPK to take Hughes’s occasional excess starts?  He’d be in the minors on Hughes’s schedule and just flit up and back down?

Or course, we don’t know what Hughes’s limit is yet.

Of course.  My point was that I think 140 is the lowest it could possibly be, and 140 is likely enough barring a major injury to another starter.

[99]  Nah, that’s too simple, obvious, and efficient.  So it couldn’t possibly work that way, right?