The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Breaking down Wilson Betemit

As Andrew Fletcher over at Scott Proctor's Arm tries to cope, it's time to look at the Proctor for Wilson Betemit trade.

Betemit was a highly-touted prospect in the Atlanta Braves' farm system despite putting up unremarkable stats. He put up a couple of good partial seasons for the Braves in 2005 and then 2006 but was traded in 2007 because Atlanta just had to have Danys Baez. The Yankees have been interested in him for a while, and they even tried to do a Proctor for Betemit swap with Atlanta last year allegedly.

Here's a look at Betemit's last three seasons offensively and his batting runs above average using linear weights (not position-adjusted).

Season Team G AB PA H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS BR/650
2005 Braves 115 246 274 75 12 4 4 36 20 22 4 55 1 3 .305 .359 .435 .794 10
2006 Braves-Dodgers 143 373 412 98 23 0 18 49 53 36 6 102 3 1 .263 .326 .469 .795 15
2007 Dodgers 84 156 192 36 8 0 10 22 26 32 0 49 0 0 .231 .359 .474 .834 35
Total 372 825 935 217 43 4 32 110 102 96 10 225 5 5 .263 .336 .441 .777 13


Betemit's a very good hitter for a guy who can play the middle infield. His career line pro-rates to being worth about 13 runs above an average hitter. He strikes out a lot, but he walks a good amount and he has good power. He's not a superstar, but he's a good solid hitter who is a starting caliber player on offense. He strengthens the Yankee bench immensely

Defensively, the numbers aren't quite as encouraging.

YEAR LG Tm POS Age GP GS INN PO A E DP PM CH ZR PM +/- RS RS/162
2005 NL Atl 2B 23 1 1 8.0 1 3 0 0 3 3 1.000 1 0 77
2006 NL Atl 2B 24 10 9 69.0 26 20 0 7 17 22 .773 -1 -1 -15
2007 NL LA 2B 25 1 1 6.0 1 0 0 1 0 2 .000 -2 -1 -293
Total 2B 12 11 83 28 23 0 8 20 27 .741 -2 -2 -39
2004 NL Atl 3B 22 7 4 39.0 2 6 0 2 7 7 1.000 2 1 47
2005 NL Atl 3B 23 63 46 431.0 26 94 6 6 103 124 .831 5 4 13
2006 NL Atl 3B 24 30 20 203.7 8 40 3 9 41 51 .804 1 1 6
2006 NL LA 3B 24 49 45 398.3 24 83 4 9 83 109 .761 -3 -2 -7
2007 NL LA 3B 25 53 39 353.0 20 60 4 6 62 86 .721 -5 -4 -16
Total 3B 202 154 1425 80 283 17 32 296 377 .785 0 0 0
2001 NL Atl SS 20 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
2004 NL Atl SS 22 11 7 74.7 12 30 3 5 29 35 .829 0 0 -6
2005 NL Atl SS 23 25 10 136.3 24 40 1 10 36 48 .750 -4 -3 -36
2006 NL Atl SS 24 18 10 92.0 20 33 5 10 27 40 .675 -6 -5 -75
2007 NL LA SS 25 2 0 7.0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1.000 0 0 25
Total SS 57 27 311 56 104 9 25 93 124 .750 -10 -8 -36
2007 NL LA RF 25 1 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0 0


We're dealing with very small sample sizes, so I took a look at Betemit's most recent scouting report in a magazine I have. Here's what it says about Betemit's defense as a 3B.

"Converted SS. Good hands and well-above average arm. Goes better to glove side than to the line"

Betemit's played the equivalent of one full defensive season at third, where he's been exactly average. That doesn't really help the Yankees much, because they have a fairly decent 3B already. However, as the area where's he's seen the most playing time it gives us more data that shows he's a bit better of a defensive player than his career numbers at 2B or SS would indicate.

Betemit was a good pickup who gives the Yankees an option who can play full-time should any one of Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, or Alex Rodriguez get hurt. He's also a better hitter than Andy Phillips, so he can be used at first base. He hasn't played there yet in his career, but as an infielder he should be able to make the transition fairly well.

According to MLB4u.com, Betemit only had about 2 years of service time entering this year, so he'd be under club control for the next three years. He turns 26 in November, so he still has some potential upside as well.

As for the dearly departed Scott Proctor, he will be missed. He hasn't been great this year, but he's been pretty good, and he was a very important piece last season. His peripherals were all markedly worse this season, as K rate dropped and his BB rate has nearly doubled. He's giving up more fly balls this year and more HRs as a result. The Yankees probably did what they almost never do here, and sold high, while Proctor's perceived value is still pretty high. They'll look to replace him with some combination of Luis Vizcaino, Kyle Farnsworth, Joba Chamberlain, Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton

At least on paper, this looks like a great trade for Brian Cashman.

Fun win last night, as the Yankees pounded 8 HRs and edged the White Sox 16-3. Mike Mussina was one bad pitch to Juan Uribe away from stellar outing, but turned in a quality start anyway, which is about the most we can reasonably expect from Moose most nights.

When I have more time I have to give some props to Hideki Matsui, who continues to rake. He hit two of the HRs yesterday, numbers 20 and 21. He's got the highest SLG of his career to this point, and his OPS+ is 139, which is the same as his career 2004.

And congrats are in order for Robinson Cano, who cracked the .300 AVG mark, and Melky Cabrera, who's maintained a .400+ SLG for two straight games now. Good signs from both.

As for the server issues some of you may be seeing, I'm trying to track down the cause. Thanks for your patience.
--Posted at 8:32 am by SG / 83 Comments | - (1310)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Betemit to 3B, A-Rod to SS, Jeter to 1B in 2008.

re-up Posada, extend A-Rod, trade Damon, and pick up a RH OFer to replace Abreu.  done.

Melky
Jeter
Giambi
A-Rod
Matsui
Posada
Dye?
Cano
Betemit

Yup,

Would never happen, but if it did I would rather move Jeter to RF, and find a 1B somewhere.  It may be Phillips, it may be Miranda, or even someone else.

i agree that would help, but it’s far more likely that jeter and arod stay put, and betemit plays first.

yesterday i was heavily opposed to the deal. given a night to sleep on it, I kind of like it. It symbolizes an effort on cashman’s part to improve the pen by getting rid of one of the deteriorating arms. I also, LOVE that farnsworth and torre have come to an agreement where farnsworth will pitch regularly (last nights mop up role was great to see). I would not even say that moose made a bad pitch to uribe. I give all the credit to uribe, he hit a 3-2 curve at the knees to left and it happened to carry out of the park.

I see outfield in Jeter’s future maybe 2010. I am not so sure a rod is dying to go back to ss. He has adapted to third and is phenomenal this year (nice plays last night). He should be in the discussion for gold glove (chavez will get it anyway).

SG,

Do you have any good farnsworth stats? I feel like it would be appropriate to break him down given his new role.

Here’s a good stat on The Farns.

Asses Kicked: 309

More seriously, looking at Farnsworth’s underlying peripherals may not be a bad idea.  His pitch data this season is probably interesting.  I’ll see what I can dig up.

With the offensive explosion the last 10 games, the Yanks are now 1 back of the lead in team runs.  Detroit up 613 to 612.
Also, coolstandings now has the Yanks at 49% to make the playoffs.  16-3 helps the pythag after all.

I am anxious to see Betemit in action. His name has been coming up for the past couple of years on this blog and it seems Cashman has been really taken with him. I hope he isn’t the second coming of the 2003 World Series Soriano. A guy with great power and a penchant for striking out. I will keep an open mind, however and wish for the best. What bothers me some is that some of you project him a starter out of the gate, when he hasn’t been able to maintain that status with two clubs to date. What’s more is that he unfamiliar with the AL and it’s pitching.
I’m far more excited about
a.  Hughes return
b.  Joba’s rise
c.  Matsui’s resurgence
d.  Cano and Melky rounding out at just the right time and the front office’s apparent appreciation for what they have in these two.
e.  Giambi’s return- I like the fact that when he’s on he isn’t intimidated by Beckett and Schilling
I’m less excited for the following
a. A-Rod’s struggle with all the lights on him
b. Jeter’s pedestrian recent numbers- no power this year- he’s back to the ground balls and jam shot dump singles to right-could be hurting
c. Farney still on the team- can’t believe what I just read unless it was sarcasm
d. Boston getting Gagne-though if Melky and Kennedy were the price I don’t blame Cashman for refusing.

“Mike Mussina was one bad pitch to Juan Uribe away from stellar outing, but turned in a quality start anyway, which is about the most we can reasonably expect from Moose most nights.”

You have to be kidding, right? Moose was as lucky as I have ever seen a pitcher last night.  He gave up one hard hit after another, and watched as many of them were fielded for outs.  Shoot, in the first two innings, I counted four balls that were absolutely smoked but converted into outs.  Last night was a fluke if you ask me (which you didn’t, but alas, here we are!)

A-Rod’s struggle with all the lights on him

didn’t he hit 5 ropes last night that just found fielders?

he struggled a little in baltimore, but all year he has whooped ass with the “lights on him”.  the lights are ALWAYS on A-Rod.

Would never happen, but if it did I would rather move Jeter to RF, and find a 1B somewhere.  It may be Phillips, it may be Miranda, or even someone else

yeah, i know it will never happen.

also, it’s interesting you mention Miranda.  the yankees seem to love this guy.

Last night was one of the best 0-5 nights I have seen. A-rod got into his counts and hit everything well (except for the pop up to third that ran in on his hands. He went the other way a few times and made Jermaine Dye smack his ugly mug against the right field wall. I only saw him take one bad swing and that was off the knuckleballer.

also, it’s interesting you mention Miranda.  the yankees seem to love this guy

I’ve been tracking the minors a lot more this year.  Partly because the Yankees have more people of interest to follow, and partly because the SWB Yankees are my “local” team.  So I have noticed that after what may have been an adjustment-period, Miranda has played very well at both A+ and now AA.  I think it is likely I’ll be seeing Miranda in Scranton early next year, unless he is on the NY team already.

Miranda’s an “advanced” 24 year old. So, it’s likely that he may be in the mix at 1st Base as soon as next Spring Training. He’s a classic power-hitting lead-footed first baseman. I think the front office is pleasantly surprised that he’s caught on so quickly.

Here’s a good stat on The Farns.

Asses Kicked: 309

More seriously, looking at Farnsworth’s underlying peripherals may not be a bad idea.  His pitch data this season is probably interesting.  I’ll see what I can dig up.

Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14 percent of all people know that.

yup- can’t agree more that A-rod has been MVP-great to date this year. My comments were not motiviated so much to criticize him as a just a general reflection of worry. Given his “lights on” performance in the last two ALDS, the concern has a natural way of working itself to the surface with many Yankee fans. He is a man of great contrasts. Superhuman at times and decidedly mortal at other times. That said this team is a shadow of a contender now as well in the near term without him.

I’m interested in getting a closer look at Betemit. Listed at 6’3” 230, he’s huge for a guy who can supposedly play the middle infield. I wonder how much he’s grown since his SS days? Seems like a guy, and I say this based on nothing more than his current size, that at 25 years old, is ultimately destined for the corner IF spots.

“The Yankees probably did what they almost never do here, and sold high…”

This, to me, is the key.  Seems like we’re constantly looking to unload some overpriced corpse (Pavano) and then wondering why no one’s jumping up and down to take him.  I would be very surprised if Proctor ever has a season as goood as ‘06…and that’s exactly what you try to do: get maximum value just before the decrescendo.

Once Betemit arrives, I hope Cairo is given his walking papers.  There is absolutely no need for him on this team right now.  If the team needs a late inning pinch runner type, bring up Kevin Thompson.

One more thing, as long as Andy Phillips keeps hitting the way he has this year, I’d say 1B is his to lose.  Also, I agree with Rizzuto regarding Mussina’s outing. Balls were flying off the bats and he was saved repeatedly by his defense.  He’s certainly not bad as a no. 5 starter, but I hope that if the Yanks have a better option next year, i.e. Kennedy, Horne, Marquez etc. that Mussina doesn’t keep his spot merely because he’s a proven veteran.  I suppose that really depends upon whether Torre is still the manager of this team.

Why is everyone hell bent on getting rid of Abreu. Dye would not be an upgrade over Bobby.

If the need is purely for a pinch runner, they should consider Gardner instead of Thompson.

I don’t see Mussina being in the rotation being the problem for the Yankee in 08.  At worse he’ll be a #5, and at best maybe #3.  I don’t want to rush the young arms just for the sake that their there.  There likely will be injuries a plenty for the young guns to see time, and hopefully prove themselves, but having an okay player like Mussina is a plus.

Why is everyone hell bent on getting rid of Abreu. Dye would not be an upgrade over Bobby.

I think the fantasy includes having a real number 3 hitter instead, probably Matsui.  But I’m cool with Abreu and yeah, don’t see much of an upgrade with Dye, it’s sell low and buy medium case. 

Abreu still has upside and, I wish I pray, may get really hot.

Why is everyone hell bent on getting rid of Abreu. Dye would not be an upgrade over Bobby.

doesn’t have to be Dye, but they do need to replace one of the lefties (Abreu or Giambi) with a righty.  and Giambi will be impossible to trade.

Brett Gardner is 23 and needs to play every day.  Promoting him to the majors and letting him sit would stunt his development.  On the other hand, Justin Christian would also make a good candidate for the role of pinch runner.  As for Mussina, I’m not saying guys should be rushed to take his spot - only that if someone like Kennedy is dominating at SWB next year and Mussina has an ERA of 5 or so, the former should be given a chance.  However, villainx, you are right that injuries will almost certainly be a factor (perhaps even in Mussina’s case).

As for Abreu, everyone is hell bent on getting rid of him because he’s expensive and not that good.  I’d rather see an outfield of Melky, Damon and Abreu next year and spend the cash on draft picks, international signings or to address some other need.

I’d rather see an outfield of Melky, Damon and Abreu next year and spend the cash on draft picks, international signings or to address some other need.

I assume it’s Melky, Damon, and Matsui.  But personally, I see Matsui, Melky, and Abreu as good enough.  It’s one more year of Abreu who may be expensive but not for the Yankees.  He likely will be within range of league average, and can certainly be better.  Damon should be the 4th fielder, and see what happens from there.  Giambi will get injured again, I don’t want that to happen, but he will, so it’s not like he’s a lock for the DH slot.

Baloon- As to Abreu it comes down to this in my opinion. He has butchered way too many catchable balls defensively. As a hitter, he is still decent against right handers but suspect against lefty’s. That’s not an indictment per se except for as yup points out the team is unbalanced and far too lefty oriented. His contract status if I recall also would make him too expensive next year. He has his moments like last night when he can look great, but his power now is mostly to death valley on fastballs-hence they are often caught. The ones he normally pulls are offspeed and overall his power totals are and have been radically declining for the past few years. He may fit well into other lineups, but with NY, it appears the team would have been better served with a “Sheffield” or “Dye” calibur righty in right field. That’s my take.

Is it just me or does it seem like Joe hasn’t encouraged base stealing near as much this year? Could it be injury risk related that attempts are down? I presume they are down. Could a Gardner or another speed demon with great outfield skills justify a playoff spot on the roster in the way that Dave Roberts was used by Boston? I would think it only valuable if Joe was determined to use the guy.

Steve Philips said the Yankees should have traded Melky for Gagne, that Melky would never be more then a fourth outfielder.  Maybe that’s why he no longer has a job in baseball.

Abreu OPS by Month (per ESPN):

Apr 2004: 882
May 2004: 1012
Jun 2004: 1116
Jul 2004: 974
Aug 2004: 782
Sep 2004: 983

Apr 2005: 712
May 2005: 1327
Jun 2005: 878
Jul 2005: 635
Aug 2005: 929
Sep 2005: 791

Apr 2006: 994
May 2006: 919
Jun 2006: 844
Jul 2006: 680
Aug 2006: 956
Sep 2006: 895

Apr 2007: 668
May 2007: 541 (!)
Jun 2007: 870
Jul 2007: 972
Aug 2004: ???
Sep 2004: ???

It’s not evident to me, from the numbers alone, the Bobby Abreu is done as a player. The most we can say is that at the beginning of the year he experienced two consecutive horrible months for the first time since at least 2003, perhaps ever. Since then his numbers are basically back to being normal Bobby Abreu numbers.

There often to seems to be a rush to judgment on certain players based on both their numbers and the way they’ve looked playing. A few months ago, everyone, myself included, was calling for Luis Vizcaino’s head. He looked bad and he was performing poorly. Now, he’s performing admirably as the primary set up man. For someone with Bobby Abreu’s track record, I’m certainly going to give him the benefit of the doubt for at least a full season, if not more.

I suppose that really depends upon whether Torre is still the manager of this team.

I really can’t see a situation in which Joe is manager next year.  If this team pulls off an “upset” and wins the World Series, there’s no better way for him to go out.  If they fall short and don’t make the playoffs or get knocked out in the first round, I can’t seem him going one more year.

As for Abreu,  I can live with him batting in the top of the lineup, but he and Damon together as 1 and 3 is worrisome.  They have been streaky and when they both fall flat, the offense suffers.  I’d rather have Jeter leading off with Abreu second.  Damon can bat 6th or ride the pine, depending on the starting pitcher.

Probably right on Bebop regarding Phillips.

Pete Abraham has a note about Twins Santana that indicates the lefty is unhappy with the tone their GM is setting regarding dumping salaries, not spending money to improve mid-season or locking up Hunter etc.
Flash forward to this winter. What do you all see them doing with Santana? No doubt they will let Tori go and make a great offer but will it be great enough? You know he’s set the bar pretty darn high with multiple Cy Youngs. It’s hard to see him signing an extension with the kind of salary horizon he will have to play with going to market. If they get to impasse, what teams will have the players and money to satisfy the Twins. The Minnesota fan base will be fuming if he leaves, so the return they get would have to be pretty impressive. It’s very hard to see them holding onto him until mid-year 2008 wouldn’t you agree, so this could be an interesting winter.  Also Nathan will be a FA at close of 2008 and Hunter of course this winter. Hmm….I’d be interested to know what Yankee fans would sacrifice to get this guy.

White Sox start a mediocre lefty tonight.  Can we feast instead of famine?  Will Torre give Duncan a start in lieu of Damon or Abreu whose stats against lefties are undrwhelming this year?

Also, Dye has been horrible this year. Last year was (by WARP1, for convenience) the only year in his career in which he’s been a better player than Bobby Abreu, and it’s not been that close since 2000. Dye’s not even younger. I get the righty/lefty thing, but Dye is not a good solution to that problem.

In other matters, given that Chicago is thowing a lefty at the Yanks tonight (Danks), I really hope to see Shelley Duncan in the lineup.  Personally, I’d sit Abreu and go with an outfield of Matsui, Melky and Abreu - with Duncan as the DH.

You beat me to it, bebop.

Torre jab of the moment: The thing I like about Torre is that if Joba strikes out the side on his first relief appearance, he might not pitch again for 10 days.

IE, I think you intend to say sit Damon?

Is it just me or does it seem like Joe hasn’t encouraged base stealing near as much this year?

For what it’s worth, the Yankees this year are 5th in the AL in SB.  The last 5 years they finished 2, 6, 8, 6, 6.  I haven’t looked deeper than that, but if the Yankees are stealing less this year, it also appears the league as a whole is.

This is what John Heyman on SI had to say about why the Yankees are “losers” from the trade-deadline:

They need Cabrera now, but to keep Gagne away from Boston, it might have been worthwhile to offer the uneven Cabrera earlier and find a suitable replacement for him.

I have yet to be impressed with his writing/analysis.

Re: Abreau, I reverse-jinxed him when on Monday I said he should never bat 3rd, so I’ll say that again.  Personally, I’m not ready to jettison him this year, but I’m hoping that there is no reason to keep him next year.  Whether Jeter moves to RF, S. Duncan gets enough AB’s to prove he can play there, Gardner is ready to come up and start, or whatever. 

I’d be interested to know what Yankee fans would sacrifice to get this guy.

To get Santana BEFORE 2008?  IF the Yankees could work out a contract extension with him prior finishing the trade, everyone except for Hughes and Chamberlain should be on the table, and I’d probably be willing to do two “A” prospects and two “B” prospects, and/or take a bad contract off their hands.

Another thing, with this trade deadline, it seems both Boston and Yankees strengthen their strengths (relief pitching and offense, respectively), and didn’t do much to fix their weaknesses.  I know Yankees have available arms in the minors to bolster the pen (how they will be used is another issue), but do the Sox have a fix for their non pen non-issue.

To get Santana shouldn’t everyone be on the table? I mean, Santana is what Hughes and Chamberlain might be. Granted, he’s older, will be more expensive, etc. But still, he’s more likely to be a #1 starter for the next few years than either Hughes or Chamberlain. I’m not saying it’s the right move, just asking why you would hold anyone back.

Also about the trade, both Boston and Yankees traded from an area of weakness (starting pitching and relief pitching, respectively), though probably Proctor or Gabbard weren’t part of the long/medium future plans.

Also about the trade, both Boston and Yankees traded from an area of weakness (starting pitching and relief pitching, respectively), though probably Proctor or Gabbard weren’t part of the long/medium future plans.

How is starting pitching an area of weakness for Boston? Simply because they’ve had a few injuries there? Their offense should be far more of a concern to them than their rotation.

well, the funny thing is that the Yankees and Red Sox could probably make a Betemit/Gagne trade and it would make sense for both teams.  Betemit is a better player than Proctor, but he doesn’t have a clear role and the Yankes obviously need Gagne.  the Sox probably needed some offense more than fixing their 8th inning situation, which was already the best in the league and they don’t have a 3Bman signed for next year either.  it makes even more sense if Betemit could play some RF or SS this year, but i don’t know if he can.

Thanks for correcting my mental lapses villainx.

anyone who would trade Melky for Gagne simply hasn’t been paying close enough attention to what Melky has been doing.  it’s that simple.  they are taking their first impressions of him and sticking with them despite new information.

Steve Phillips is an idiot.

since he was fired from the Mets, how many teams have hired new GMs? i count about 10 job openings.  he was never hired.  what should that tell him?

Hope we can upgrade our loogy situation via waivers down the line

I wonder how much he’s grown since his SS days?

BB-Ref lists him at 6’2” 155.  That’s not a typo.  I assume it’s what he weighed when Atlanta signed him as a 15 year old, so yeah, he’s bulked up a bit.

it seems both Boston and Yankees strengthen their strengths (relief pitching and offense, respectively), and didn’t do much to fix their weaknesses

There may be something to be said for that approach.  This year’s Yankees were built to bludgeon their opponents and pitch just well enough to win by scoring six runs a game.  It’s not that easy to turn on a dime in mid-season and become a pitching/defense first team.  They just might get more bang for the buck by upgrading the bench.  The same (or is it the opposite?) goes for Boston.  Except that while their late inning relief has been outstanding, it’s hard to believe that Okajima isn’t due for a major correction any minute now.  They may be thinking that they need Gagne to correct that correction and maintain their bullpen strngth rather than improve on it.

Hope we can upgrade our loogy situation via waivers down the line

Easy.  Just put Myers and Villone of waivers.

Are you suggesting that we wait patiently for someone to hock a loogy in our direction? Disgusting. Ewwww.

Okajima has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched. And Papelbon’s shoulder is still a real concern. Gagne may be asked to throw a lot of innings and there’s the rub…he’s already been on the DL twice this season. This could end badly for Boston.

BTW, how much better would the Dodgers be if they’d let Nomar walk and played Loney at first and Betemit at third all year?

Except that while their late inning relief has been outstanding, it’s hard to believe that Okajima isn’t due for a major correction any minute now.

hope you’re right, but i’ve been waiting for 2 months.

2010 will be Jeter’s 15th ML season.  I hardly think that is the time to put him in the OF. That train left the station long ago.

Okajima career era in Japan 3.36-his best year was 2.14 hope a major correction is coming.

Would like to see Marte put on waivers

I’m not for trading Abreu, just not picking up his option. A cheap buyout, Abreu becomes a type ‘A’ FA, the Yankees get compensation.

Fukudome in 2008.

I do believe that Fukudome is a good fit for the Giants. They lose Bonds and can add some Japanese market interest.

Still, if the Yankees scouts like what they see, he [Fukudome] could be in the Bronx come 2008. The scouts were right about Igawa, only the FO paid no heed.

Well, starting pitching may not be a Boston weakness, but it’s also not a strong area either.

Fukudome-Is that a description of the Twins present facility after they vacate to their new digs?

As far as Abreu and trading him, that should have been done yesterday, at this point he’s a Yankee for the rest of the season and that will be it.

What do you think of signing Aaron Rowand for an outfield corner particularly if Tori Hunter requires to many years or bucks? Seems to be having a great year. I think Damon should go if we aren’t able to count on him in a defensive role. Matsui and Melky should be locks for next year.

Where’s Damon going to go and how does his presence make the courting of Hunter who is getting up in years impractical?

more likely to be a #1 starter for the next few years than either Hughes or Chamberlain. I’m not saying it’s the right move, just asking why you would hold anyone back.

I’m expecting Hughes and Chamberlain to both be impressive THIS year in the big leagues.  Hughes I think will show he can at least be a #2 next year, and Chamberlain will show enough to indicate he could be part of the rotation next year.  I’d be very leery about doing that.  Perhaps if the Twins threw in Mauer as well it would be OK.

Just put Myers and Villone of waivers.

I think the Yankees need to hold on to one of them for now.  Myers has been decent in long relief, although admittedly, he has almost no use as a loogy anymore.  Villone has shown some ability to get the job done too.
Until another alternative presents itself (Henn is not the best bet at the moment) one of those two guys needs to stay on the team, at least for mop up duties and to limit Viz innings.

I’m not for trading Abreu, just not picking up his option. A cheap buyout, Abreu becomes a type ‘A’ FA, the Yankees get compensation.

I agree with Don.  Abreau was *not* trade-able in July.  I’m not sure if the Yankees could find a) a trading partner for him b) if that partner is someone Abreau would waive his NTC to go to c) would get enough back to make it worth it.

But I also can’t see keeping him for next year, unless the Yankees get some bad news before the season is out - e.g. Matsui decides he doesn’t want to play baseball any more to start a career as an actor in Japan.

I think the Yankees need to hold on to one of them for now

#1 I think Myers has done a fine job.  No, he’s not getting lefties out as well as we’d like (though I think he’s done better of late, w/o checking the numbers), but he’s still putting up decent numbers.  Villone has done OK too.  And - of great importance - as Jonathan notes, not only Viz but Mo and potentially another reliever (Farnsworth?) will get overworked because Torre is unlikely to trust Henn or whoever is called up enough to give them innings, after taking away pitchers he DOES trust.

Doesn’t Matsui have a face more geared to radio?

Maybe Edwar with his change can be used to get out tough lefties though not exclusively as a loogy

I’m expecting Hughes and Chamberlain to both be impressive THIS year in the big leagues.  Hughes I think will show he can at least be a #2 next year, and Chamberlain will show enough to indicate he could be part of the rotation next year.  I’d be very leery about doing that.  Perhaps if the Twins threw in Mauer as well it would be OK.

Yeah, but Santana has the best pitcher on the planet for the past three or four years. Any team should trade any pitcher straight up if they were going to get Santana’s performance for the last three or four years. No one has been better.

So there are two questions:
1) Is it reasonable to expect Chamberlain or Hughes to be more productive than Johan Santana for the next six years or so? I think this is unlikely. Santana is still only 28 and Hughes and Chamberlain are still unproven commodities.

2) Is the difference in their performances worth the difference in their salaries? For most teams, the answer to this question is “probably not”, but for the Yankees, I’m not sure it’s the case.

I don’t want to trade Phil or Joba, but not because it wouldn’t be objectively the right thing to do. I don’t want to trade them because I love it when the Yankees develop their own stars. Johan Santana of the last three or four years is the ceiling for just about any pitcher, ever. The only way you don’t trade one of those guys to get him is if you expect Santana to fall below their level or you have to give up other talent in addition to Hughes or Chamberlain that makes the total package bad.

I should also note that this assumes that the Yanks wouldn’t just sign Santana in ‘09 anyways and have all three of them. If that were guaranteed to be the case, then you could easily argue that one year of Santana was not worth Hughes or Chamberlain. However, that is far from certain, so you’d have to weigh that risk into the analysis.

Again, I don’t want to trade them. I just don’t see how they should be automatically off the table.

“2010 will be Jeter’s 15th ML season.  I hardly think that is the time to put him in the OF. That train left the station long ago.”

I think you are underestimating jeter’s versatility. The main reason he is effective at ss is because of his ability to read the ball off the bat. Couple that with his speed, agility, reaction time, and arm and you have an all star gold glove worthy outfielder. I am not saying he should go to the outfield but it is certainly conceivable in his mid thirties.

Yankees don’t get Santana, Boston might, is all I’m going to say.  I don’t think Santana will require Hughes or Joba in return.  He only has one year left, so trading the future for one year is hardly a slam dunk.  It’s worth mulling over, but mulling against too. 

I would love to get Santana, but he seem like the type that any number of team will bid and overbid for, and as long as Boston ain’t the winner, the Yankees can survive it.  But who knows?  Any game theorist also a Yankee fan?

One has to assume, I believe that if the Twins hit a wall regarding an extension, they will have no other recourse but to shop him and Santana will be allowed to work out a new contract with the proposed new team. This would be in the Twins interests to maximize a return via trade. Does this make sense? I’m just exploring.

Kay says Damon not in lineup-Duncan in.

The scouts were right about Igawa, only the FO paid no heed

this is false.  the same scout (Mike Pagliarulo) who claims he was against Igawa actually recommended him. the FO did not ignore the scouts at all. here is the article:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2007/07/29/2007-07-29_halls_vet_committee_votes_for_changes.html

Pagliarulo’s tangled Web
Yankee GM Brian Cashman has come under some heavy fire for his job performance - acquisitions such as Carl Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth and Josh Phelps plus the deals to get rid of Gary Sheffield and Randy Johnson - but in regard to the $46 million signing of Kei Igawa, his most vocal critic, ex Yankee third baseman Mike Pagliarulo, would be advised to get a memory check.

Amid all the “Who was the scout who recommended Igawa?” outrage being directed at Cashman, Pagliarulo, who heads up the international scouting service Turf Dirt, has been at the forefront. A recent blog on Pagliarulo’s Web site contained this scathing indictment of Cashman’s job performance: “Igawa could potentially be one of the worst free-agent signings ever - in Mike Hampton territory. Dare we say another Pavano? At least Hampton did have stretches of decent production after he left Colorado. Igawa, on the other hand, might never be better than what he is now - a Triple-A pitcher with an attitude who is at best a back-end starter on a second division team. The Yankees chose not to use (Cashman’s) Japan consultants, who told him to walk away from Igawa. The consultants knew about the Igawa holdout in spring training 2005 in Japan and how Igawa then laid down that year and wasn’t productive at all. Important information that is interpreted through consulting and difficult to put in scouting reports.”

In other words, Cashman, in signing Igawa (who was sent to the minors on Friday), ignored the advice of Pagliarulo’s company, whose services the Yankees have employed the last couple of years. The only problem is, Cashman didn’t ignore Pagliarulo’s report. Here’s what it really said: “(Igawa) is considered one of the best starters in Japan and is having a good season. He is doing a good job of moving the ball around the zone and seems to be conserving himself throughout the game ... He showed a good split and was adding on to his fastball in tough situations. He has enough to be a fourth or fifth starter in the U.S.”

The report goes on to list Igawa as one of the top 10 pitchers in Japan. Nothing about any holdout or attitude problems.

So unless we’ve missed something here, a scout who recommended Igawa to Cashman is the same person bashing him for signing Igawa: Mike Pagliarulo. Didn’t he know there was a paper trail? Shame on you, Pags.

Torre won’t have Edwar to kick around anymore, or at least for a while as Jeff Karstens was called up.  I hope I’m wrong but I see little in Karsten’s minor league record that suggest he’ll be much in the majors.

yup, those reports don’t sound too contradictory.  But I agree that it sounds even less good coming from Pag’s company.

They need Cabrera now, but to keep Gagne away from Boston, it might have been worthwhile to offer the uneven Cabrera earlier and find a suitable replacement for him.

Yep, both Heyman and Phillips are absolute tools. They’re both proponents of trading the “replaceable” Melky, who plays everyday, for a set-up guy that might log 25 innings the rest of the way, yet they fail to even hint at what the Yankees might replace Melky with. Versatile, switch-hitting outfielders do not abundantly populate our minor-league system at the moment. Sure? Yeah, for a time, but his body doesn’t seem to agree with outfield walls and his arm is, um, velocity-challenged.

Instead, the Cashman felt he could more closely approximate the performance Gagne with what he has in-house. And with Chamberlain/Ohlendorf/Vizcaino, he’s closer to right than either Phillips or Heyman. Gosh. Freakin idiots.

Sure? Yeah, for a time

Should read: Damon? Yeah, for a time

I believe the Yankees had their own scouts recommend against Igawa. Somene else alluded to a story in that regard a while back.

I hope I’m wrong but I see little in Karsten’s minor league record that suggest he’ll be much in the majors.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Jeff-Karstens.shtml

Karsten’s numbers in the minors were always decent - about 7K/9IP, about 2BB/9IP - except for a short stretch in Columbus last year before coming up to NY and pitching decent.  And last year he was only 23, so it’s not like he is 28 years old and we can’t expect any improvement.

As a starter he may top out as a #5, but I’d have to think he would do fine as a middle-reliever/long-reliever.  He’ll rarely face the same hitter twice I think, unless it is a blow-out.

I didn’t find anything on Yankees’ scouts recommendations on Igawa yet, but here is one from before the Yankees won the posting:

link

I saw some others from after as well.  Seems before, everyone thought Igawa was a 3/4.  After the Yankees won the posting, everyone was coming out saying he has a border-line 5.

He may not have been worth 26 Million for the posting, but a lot of people against the Igawa signing say money isn’t a problem for the Yanks, and it sure seems a number of baseball-people liked Igawa before he came to the states.

I found some guy who posted this as well.

Okay, last post.

from the first link, this scout thought Beurhle was a good comp:

“He uses a four-seamer in the 88-91 mph range, with that 92+ capability on occasion, and an above-average change that I had in the 78-81 mph area. His breaking ball is a solid slider he’ll throw mostly to lefthanders, though he did use it to backdoor some right-handed bats.

“It looked like he was playing with a different heater in some starts, perhaps a two-seamer or a sinker of some sorts, but his command of that pitch was very ordinary. His overall control is above average and he’ll probably need to be aware of the base on balls in America.

“He gets most of his strikeouts on the change and the fastball up in the zone, and I suspect he’s going to continue that trend wherever he ends up. His ground ball tendencies aren’t heavy enough to think he can be considered even a mild version of a ground ball pitcher, and the best hitters in the world will get more lift on his pitches.”

What I saw of Igawa, mostly this year’s version, showed that he has no problem trying to bite off a righties’ toes with that slider, that sat in the 80-83 mph range. It also appears that he changes speeds - and planes - on it to give it more of a curve ball type appearance. The grades I have seen on the slider don’t match what I saw. I think his slider is a little bit better than he’s been given credit for, at least compared to what I have read and heard.

The scout is a 13-year veteran and has six years experience in Japan, Korea, China, some areas of Eastern Europe and has dabbled in the Latin Americas, too. His overall assessment of Igawa is very much along the the lines of what the Seattle Mariners need to be doing, and might very well be trying to execute.

“Kei is going to be a very good value to someone, and we have a lot of interest in him, too,” he said. “I know two other clubs in our division (NL Central) really think that way also, and the Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers and Angels have scouted him pretty extensively as well.

He’s a fringe frontline guy, for me, somewhere between that innings eater at No. 4 and the occasional dominant start that good No. 3’s can display five or six times a year. Is he Mark Buehrle? He might be better, but that’s a decent comp.>/i> I liken him to guys like Wolf (Randy), Buehrle, or someone like Noah Lowry in style.

“I don’t expect his strikeout numbers to hold up, but <i>I am going to recommend him as a legit No. 3/4, and I think if he’s paid that way it’s a solid get.”

In terms of stuff, those reports basically were correct, he does indeed sit consistently in 89-91 range with occasional 92+ , and he does have a good chance and curve…. and a slider… the biggest problem is that after he arrived he completely lose the ability to throw more than 2 pitches for strikes in the same game (or same inning!) you see him one game where he’s landing 12 to 6 curves on the corner then the next game he throws them into the backstop (or worse, the seats in the outfield), you see him throw a change that made Bonds look silly whiffing but he also hung it a million other times. you see him land a pefect fastball at the knees one inning then throws one middle belt high the next.

There’s clearly something wrong with his head, and his adjustment, i think the ESPN article summed it up prefectly that he’s a lot like Contreras in this sense. he does indeed have major league stuff but couldn’t adjust as quickly as people thought he could, and then everything just spins out of control.

Like Jose, he’ll probalby end up traded… and do well… unlike Jose though, he’s also younger /cheaper (for the team taht gets him anyway) and more likely to have more years of effectiveness than Contreras.

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