Sorry to threadjack, but Harden to the Rangers. 1 year, $7.5M, incentives up to $11.5M.

http://bases.nbcsports.com/2009/12/report-harden-could-be-on-verge-of-signing.html.php

It’s official now, right?

What we shouldn’t assume is that a player’s career platoon splits to date are what we should expect against LHP going forward, especially after only 685 PAs.

SG, I agree with you that we should not expect Granderson to hit that line against LHP going forward, but I am not sure which way to revise his numbers from this baseline. Taking Johnny Damon as an example, a guy who has not been platooned, a LH hitter would expect to see a LH pitcher approximately a thirty percent of the time (this can vary, of course). Granderson has seen LH pitching 24 percent of the time, and I think the discrepancy is significant. In other words, his performance against LHP might be biased upwards due to this selection bias, particularly if he has been sat against tough lefties like CC, Lee, Santana during his career.

That being said, I think this is a tremendous pick-up.

Cool, another all purpose winter meeting thread!

[2] Yep, it’s safe.

Crazy crime from my neck of the woods - home invasion of a very modest home in a tony area.  Two thugs beat up a 96-year-old farmer and his daughter asking only, “Where’s the safe?”

“We wouldn’t base our assessment of a player’s true talent after 685 PAs in a single season”

Would we not, if that were the available info?  If his split is historically bad then ok, but I thought OPS was well estimated (ignoring injury and jump in level, which I think shouldn’t be the case here) at 300 PA.  But say this is a 2 sigma low fluctuation, what should he regress to?

Hoorah!  Thanks, SG - we’ve been waiting.
I’m surprised that at least the HR numbers don’t project higher (in fact, significantly higher) than those he attained at the rather spacious Some Stupid Bank Park.

The base-stealing efficiency is heartening.

Also, what do you (SG) think of the notion raised by weag that Some Dreary Bank Park had an unusual, highly pronounced dampening effect on Granderson’s hitting vs. left-handers?

SG, I agree with you that we should not expect Granderson to hit that line against LHP going forward, but I am not sure which way to revise his numbers from this baseline.

Would we not, if that were the available info?

In the absence of adequate data, you generally have to identify some sort of mean population that you can regress the player towards.  In the case of Granderson, you’d probably regress him towards at the very least the mean of lefty hitters versus lefty pitchers.  Over at Fangraphs, MGL had a post about this very subject, although he was discussing Ryan Howard.

Other points I’ve raised about this that could as always stand an info-driven check - whether Granderson would face extra lefties in the PS (say he’d been our CF or LF in 09, what’s his equivalent regular season value) and what he’s replacing in CF wrt e.g. TSBG and AJax the next 3 or 4 years.

“12 wins over the next four years”

You don’t have much 2007 in this projection, right?  And no adjustment for the broken-finger hypothesis.  I’ll be quite disappointed if he’s only worth the above.

SOrry, it’s not incentives up to $11.5M, it’s a $11.5M option.

I’m surprised that at least the HR numbers don’t project higher (in fact, significantly higher) than those he attained at the rather spacious Some Stupid Bank Park.

I’ve regressed DNYS’s HR factor quite a bit.  If it plays like last year, Granderson would probably project to pop another two or so HRs.

Also, what do you (SG) think of the notion raised by weag that Some Dreary Bank Park had an unusual, highly pronounced dampening effect on Granderson’s hitting vs. left-handers?

I’d be curious to look at the batted ball data, as well as things that may indicate a change in approach like P/PA, BB rate, K rate.  Differing triple slash lines may obfuscate a performance that’s actually not all that much different between home and road.  Kind of like Cano 2008 vs. Cano 2009.

“Heck, one standard deviation due to chance in 750 PA is around 30 points of OPS.”

As it turns out, MGL regresses Howard’s OPS_vs_LHP up by 2 sigma on the basis of his 1.4 split ratio.  If I can do the math, Granderson’s split ratio is a bit worse, but ok, I asked about 2 sigma, and naively adding 0.06 to 0.614 gives an estimate of 0.674 OPS_vs_LHP.  Hopefully that’s wrong or there’s a missing park factor.

You don’t have much 2007 in this projection, right?  And no adjustment for the broken-finger hypothesis.  I’ll be quite disappointed if he’s only worth the above.

2007 is about 21% of his projection.  Haven’t heard of the broken finger hypothesis, but probably wouldn’t make a manual adjustment for it.  It might make me more likely to expect something closer to his 65% projection though.

FWIW, if Granderson hits his 65% projection in 2010 instead of baseline, his four year projection improves by about 2.3 wins.  If he hits his 80% forecast he improves by about 4.8 wins.

“regressed DNYS’s HR factor quite a bit.  If it plays like last year, Granderson would probably project to pop another two hundred or so HRs.”

I think this is what the kids call, fixed that for ya.

“1.4 split ratio.  If I can do the math, Granderson’s split ratio is a bit worse”
->
“1.46 split ratio.  If I can do the math, Granderson’s split ratio is exactly that”

“broken finger hypothesis”

I read he broke a finger in ST 2008, dunno how much that may have affected him.

Hmm, MGL’s result keeps moving in that thread, ending with:

“Ken, I regressed his platoon ratio too much. According to The Book, for 750 PA, you regress about 57%, not 80%. That would put his true OPS versus LHB at .791 and not .805, not a gigantic difference.”

That makes the above 0.674 OPS_vs_LHP too high.

[14] I was about to type the same thing but say it was /espNESN’d.

This is something that I think gives me pause as to how well MGL really understands statistics:

Because there is not much a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like Howard, it is likely a fluke.

How does he measure “true” hitting talent? Simple OPS? How does he know this spread? And how does he know if it is a fluke for Howard? This is certainly not using all information. Scouts have seen Ryan Howard take hacks against lefties. I addition, what he gets from the data already contains bias: Howard likely has been removed for a PH, or given “rest” against good lefties. Those would tend to bias his result upwards, not downwards, as MGL claims in his response.

So the Yanks now have a center fielder who needs a platoon partner who can hit lefties. 

I wonder if Bernie is still available.

[18] I think he means that it’s rare to see a player sustain an unusual platoon split, so when you see a hugely different split you expect it’s in part a fluctuation, regardless of how good or bad the player is generally, so you should regress some of it away depending on the statistics accumulated.

Maybe there’s a population of hitters like Howard and Granderson who have a real split around 1.5 for some concrete reason so one shouldn’t do this, but I don’t see it as crazy at first glance.

[18]  I don’t pretend to follow stats processes, though I try to have a sketchy understanding.  But to my eye MGL seems to be making assertions.  I’m not sure how it follows that because most players do not have very large splits, some players cannot “really” have such large splits.

What kind of historical data is there on this?  There must be a way to analyze large groups of players in such a way as to determine whether large platoon splits are statistical outliers & therefore “fluky”, or not.

This is something that I think gives me pause as to how well MGL really understands statistics:

I don’t get his point about hitting talent spread, but he is taking a “whatever works” attitude towards projecting future platoon splits, and he has decided it is better to regress towards an average split.  Which is reasonable to me, since, for example: Granderson has a full season against LHP, but that season has been spread out across four or so years of talent changes, which makes it less useful for predicting next year.  Unless you believe that platoon splits don’t change.

I wanted Harden.

I also contributed to the Sterling HR call joke, before I realized that you were all hanging out here.

“I’m not sure how it follows that because most players do not have very large splits, some players cannot “really” have such large splits.”

If I understand correctly, he’s saying that there’s a 2% chance that Howard’s #s against OPS are a 2 sigma or more deviation low from pure statistics (this is just looking at the area below the gaussian beyond -2 sigma), but out of (just guessing) 10k players with good stats there are only 10 with that exaggerated a split so really it’s highly likely to be a fluctuation.  Then he says, let’s make that fluctuation go away.  (I’m not sure I like the method he chooses to do that though.)

[24] Obviously it would be nice to see the distributions in question.  If there’s really no reason to believe in the existence of a true split different than the mean for whatever population, it does make sense to impose that condition.

I’m surprised that at least the HR numbers don’t project higher (in fact, significantly higher) than those he attained at the rather spacious Some Stupid Bank Park.

You can’t really project that Granderson will learn to hook the ball and take it to the RF stands the way Damon, Murcer, and other LH Yankee batters have historically done, but I think it’s likely, and will enable him to exceed his HR projections, maybe by a lot.

Looking at his spread, though, and the dimensions of the parks, I’d think that his HR rate would go up even without a possible learning curve.

“If there’s really no reason to believe in the existence of a true split different than the mean for whatever population, it does make sense to impose that condition.”

Yes, that’s my point—does he have data to support this or not?  Maybe I misread but I don’t think I saw it referenced

I think he implies it’s in The Book.

I propose we move to a 292 game season, and increase the standard game length from 9 to 15 innings. This way guys would get like 1800 PAs a year and we could get some killer, more accurate pie charts. Also, we would be about three weeks from opening day. Also also, Barry Bonds’s shameful single season home run record would fall this year, guaranteed.

[30]

Also, increase the number of fielders to 50, so we can get really granular defensive data.

The 2nd peanut next to my name should be a lil’ tiger.

I have so much respect for SG and the other baseball minds at this site and I think this trade was a win/win for DET and NYY.  But there’s no way Granderson’s is even near the league average LHB vs. LHP.  Some of the most cringe-worthy at bats I have ever seen in MLB have been Granderson v. LHP.  He absolutely cannot identify pitches v. LHP.  Even rainbow curves in the dirt have buckled his knees.  Whereas a guy like Damon v. LHP you’re not thinking “Why is he/He shouldn’t be out here”.

Overall Granderson is a class act and should crush at DNYS, plus the Yanks are smart enough not to bat him leadoff.

“He absolutely cannot identify pitches v. LHP”

I could imagine I guess that there’s some hole in his swing that’s only accessible from the 1b side of the mound, but I don’t understand this, unless it’s some kind of learned helplessness.

Ok, folks, thanks for helping me out with MGL responses, you guys did better to explain his own position than he did.

Having said that, I am not buying his theory, simply because of the very selected nature of the sample with same handedness for lefthanded hitters.

I.e., if you see a RH handed hitter, then his numbers against RH pitching won’t cause you to make adjustments, simply because the sample size is large, and in a large majority of cases (ok, anytime), you don’t platoon Derek Jeter.

For a Ryan Howard, however, he has the platoon advantage most of the time, simply because he is left handed, and most pitchers are right handed. His overall OPS numbers are certainly going to be biased upwards relative to league average for this reason alone. This is the reason I expect the platoon split for LH hitters to have a higher spread than RH hitters.

So, if I were MGL, maybe I adjust Howard’s overall number downwards rather than revise his LH number upwards. A middle ground is probably there, but I certainly don’t think that 1060 PAs are uninformative about a player’s skills.

Granderson has seen LH pitching 24 percent of the time, and I think the discrepancy is significant.

Except that Granderson has not been platooned since becoming a major league regular.  In fact, he hasn’t even been rested much.

Year Games PA
2006   159 679
2007   158 676
2008   141 629 (missed first 21 games with previously referenced broken finger)
2009   160 710

It seems more likely that “tough lefties like CC, Lee, Santana” contribute to the extremity of his platoon split than it does that his true platoon split is even worse because he’s ducked those guys.

So let’s see…

38 PA vs Lee
20 PA vs Sabathia
14 PA vs Santana

that’s 9% of his career PA vs LHP right there.  Should we expect more?

“but I certainly don’t think that 1060 PAs are uninformative about a player’s skills”

Again caveating if I understand correctly, he doesn’t say 1k PAs are worth nothing - in the limit where N_wrong_side is large, there is no correction.

I tend to agree with [34].

On to the DH for a second.  I know this is a stats oriented site but am I really the only one whose first choice would be Matsui?  Not only just for loyalty to a guy who has been nothing but great to the Yankees but because I think it could pay dividends to treat him well with future Japanese imports. Of course the fact that he will pay for himself in foreign revenue helps as well.  Doesn’t that have to be factored into cost?

This is the reason I expect the platoon split for LH hitters to have a higher spread than RH hitters.

Wait, I thought it was true that LHB have bigger platoon splits than RHB.  I also though it was true that MGL accepts this.  Isn’t the issue about how much stock to put in platoon splits that are outliers relative to the average LHB (~1.2 or whatever it is)?

[33] - I may be wrong, but it’s my understanding that the platoon advantage primarily comes from an increase in reaction time when facing a pitcher of the opposite handedness as opposed to any “holes” in a player’s swing.  A LHB has a better view from ball-leaving-hand of RHP to ball-crossing-plate than a RHB.  My best idea is that this stems from more of the view being in the peripheral vision when facing a like-handed pitcher, but I could be wrong about that.

[38] It is possible you are right; but he wrote this: “Because there is not much a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players ...” He did not qualify RH or LH hitters. So I am not sure what he is really referring to.

What one really needs is a large sample of non-handed pitches - say from a machine, or some alien pitcher with a tentacle that comes over his back - to compare.  I guess we would want to pause MLB for a few seasons to get some good data after hitters adjust.  Hmm, actually I think we’d want to start batters getting accomodated in little league or equivalent, so make that a generation or two.

“it’s my understanding that the platoon advantage primarily comes from an increase in reaction time when facing a pitcher of the opposite handedness as opposed to any “holes” in a player’s swing.”

Then we would expect him to be vulnerable to RH power pitchers, no?  And not vulnerable to junk-balling LHP?

I don’t get why Harden would agree to a team option, even at $11.5 million.

Because in Texas he will either have his numbers impacted from pitching in that park or will get hurt from being over-fatigued during mid-summer games when its 100+ degrees on the field. So, he won’t be making $11.5M either way in 2011, this way he gets the buyout which is probably a couple extra million on top of the $7.5M for 2009. It’s the kind of free money that question mark-coat guy is always screaming about.

[41]  Yes, they we can begin implementing [30] and [31] as well.  Not just because one of them is MY idea…but because they are both GOOD ideas.

some alien pitcher with a tentacle that comes over his back

Luis Tiant?

[42] - Batters in general do worse against power pitchers than junk-ballers. I think one of the reasons you see soft-tossing LOOGY’s survive is that they have side-armed deliveries (Mike Meyers) which makes them even harder to pick up from the LHB side of the plate.

[39] [46]

From The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2008:

What I have found in this study is that, perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, it is primarily the fastball and slider that contribute to large platoon splits, while the curveball and chnageup are much more platoon-neutral.

[...]

Maybe the answer lies not in their movement of pitches, but in their speed. After all, if you rank the pitch types by speed, you get exactly the same ranking that that we got for platoon splits. This is curious, isn’t it? Let’s speculate on this just a minute before wrapping up.

You can imagine that the true reason for the platoon split is simply the fact that the batter gets a “better look” at an opposite-handed deliver. This makes sense, actually, because he opposite-side batter gets a bit more of a “side view” of the pitch, which likely helps the perception of where the pitch is headed and its speed. It’s logical to hypothesize that this “side view” is greater when the pitch is coming in faster, hence the larger platoon splits for the faster pitches.

2009 MLB

RHB vs RHP—.257/.319/.407 .725   68,593 PA
RHB vs LHP—.269/.347/.430 .777   67,257 PA
LHB vs RHP—.268/.341/.430 .771   35,964 PA
LHB vs LHP—.247/.317/.386 .703   15,246 PA

Just glancing at the last few seasons’ data, this seems pretty typical.

[46] My thought was that if Granderson is a great hitter at long reaction times but poor at short, hence vulnerable to the loss in milliseconds when facing LHP - if that’s what’s driving his split, he ought to show an relatively high sensitivity to different velocity pitchers.  Something like, Granderson couldn’t hit Verlander as well as the average LH batter but murders anything from control pitchers.

I love when I don’t totally make shit up.  I’m pretty sure I had read that, but couldn’t remember doing it.

[49] - It could also be he has relatively poor peripheral vision.

This makes sense, actually, because he opposite-side batter gets a bit more of a “side view” of the pitch, which likely helps the perception of where the pitch is headed and its speed.

This is why I tell my youth pitchers to move to the 1B side of the rubber against LHB and the 3B side against RHP.  Get closer to the batter and make him try to hit something that looks like it’s coming straight at him.  They all look at me funny at first, but it actually works.

I guess I’m not very good using databases…I was noodling around B-Ref, trying to see if LHB v LHP in Comerica do especially bad, or if Tigers LHB do surprisingly better on the road…but can’t even figure out how to find these numbers.  I was thinking, maybe it’s the wind patterns, maybe there’s something funky about the batter’s eye in the stadium.

[45]
Wait - we HAVE that data!

(That was very funny, MC)

From LoHud:

• Cashman said Granderson is the Yankees center fielder. He does not foresee a situation in which Granderson becomes the left fielder.

• As for the batting order. Granderson said he’s comfortable hitting anywhere. Cashman said the Yankees will discuss it this winter, but right now he sees Granderson batting second against right-handed starters and “in the back of the lineup” against left-handed starters.

• Granderson was quickly asked what he can do to cut down on the strikeouts and hit better against lefties: “It’s going to be just a transition to try to continue to try to figure out what’s causing it,” he said. “There’s a simple answer to that: Don’t hit with two strikes. Of course, that would be the easiest and obvious one. But when it comes down to the actual mechanical and mental changes we have to make in the game, that’s going to come over time I think, and getting to be around hitters that have proven to be consistent hitters like a Jeter, like a Teixeira, like an A-Rod whose strikeout numbers are down, who can hit against both pitchers up there — Teixeira, of course, being a switch hitter. To see guys like Robinson Cano, who’s a guy I played against coming up all the way through the minor league system and has had great success batting against left-handers. Hopefully I can learn a lot of things from him and the rest of the Yankees offensive lineup there. Make strides moving forward, that’s what I always want to do. Just improve on something.”

• Cashman’s take on Granderson’s struggles against lefties: “He has hit lefties before,” Cashman said. “He was obviously very bad last year. We’ll have to wait and see. Kevin Long will work with him. If you look at video from a scouting perspective, you can’t really see any reason why, and a lot of times you can. In his case, it’s more of a head scratcher. There’s nothing you can see that explains why he didn’t hit left handers.”

According to Olney, if NYA signs Damon they’ll look to trade… Swisher (?!!?!)

I was noodling around B-Ref, trying to see if LHB v LHP in Comerica do especially bad, or if Tigers LHB do surprisingly better on the road…but can’t even figure out how to find these numbers.

I haven’t been able to figure out how to get splits of splits from BB-Ref either, but I did stumble on this while trying:

The 2009 Tigers, as a team, batting LH against LHP, hit .196/.269/.262/.531 in 319 PA.  This means that all Tiger LHB other than Curtis Granderson combined for 120 PA vs LHP.  Of course, Granderson had 710 of the team’s 1691 total lefthanded PA.  I guess it makes sense to stack your team with righties if your park kills lefties.

[56] What has Olney ever been right about?

Yahoo’s Steve Henson hears that the Yankees will be strong players for Matt Holliday.

I mean, what the hell, there just tweets.

[57]
MC, Another Misanthropic Bank Park has been around since 2000.  If the dimensions/conditions haven’t changed dramatically, then if this is a park effect it should be evident in previous years, too, no?  Giving us a much less SSS?

To clarify [59] - man, I’m hoping that your data (and woeg’s) are extremely indicative!

Well, combining [56] and [58], if they sign both Holliday and Damon, Swisher would be the odd man out.

To see guys like Robinson Cano, who’s a guy I played against coming up all the way through the minor league system and has had great success batting against left-handers. Hopefully I can learn a lot of things from him

I think it would be best if they put Granderson and Cano on far opposite sides of the clubhouse and didn’t let them sit next to each other in the dugout and Jeter made sure to always run out to take the field in between them, so they can never converse. I don’t see any good coming from Cano mentoring Granderson.

According to Olney, if NYA signs Damon they’ll look to trade… Swisher (?!!?!)

I shouted this upon reading that, “OLNEY! YOU FARNSING HIGH!”

Too late - think I saw that Granderson had bad relative #s w/RISP etc at least last year.

Bad, or Caño bad?

Granderson’s mL splits:

v. L: .283/.331/.441/.772 (145 AB) 
v. R: .304/.378/.562/.940 (313 AB)

“Well, combining [56] and [58], if they sign both Holliday and Damon, Swisher would be the odd man out. “

How so?  Holliday LF, Damon DH, Swisher RF.

In any case Holliday has only ever played LF, doesn;t have the arm for RF, and the idea of Damon’s arm in RF is laughable.  No way Damon/Holliday displace Swisher.

In any case Swisher is much more valuable than Damon, in 2010 and going forward, they would never sign Damon to replace him.

Pressure drop. Oh. Pressure. Pressure gonna drop on you!
The Specials. Toots, The Clash. I like the Specials version best. Jimmy Cliff mon? This post is somewhat off topic. Forgive me lads. I get excited by good songs.

[61]  Yeah, they’ll just DH-platoon Melkner!

OTF, don’t forget Izzy Stradlin and the JuJu Hounds as well.

wow, i am simultaneously surprised and ashamed that i remembered that.

Oh my Mo, yup! I’ve not heard that version. Not sure if I want to.
Is it…..............safe?

Too much pressure.

In any case Holliday has only ever played LF, doesn;t have the arm for RF, and the idea of Damon’s arm in <strike>RF</strike> LF is laughable. The idea of Damon’s arm in RF is criminally incompetent.

Fixed.

The harder they come, the harder they fall.

OTF, it’s exactly as good as it sounds like it would be….

here’s a link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wnCX3qCZTw

Good one Froggo. So I was listening to some Bad Brains sunday and Mrs otf came back from the store and asked me to please watch the Jets.
I told her they played thursday.
She handed me my vhs copy of superbowl 3 and said ” please don’t play that music anymore” Bad brains that is.
Man I forgot about the selecter.

Yup I watched it. listened too. kind of. Wow.
I think I was in a better band in 85 doing ZZ Top covers and playing 15 minute versions of Red House.

OTF I am vaguely aware of a new documentary about black punk (Afro-punk) bands in the 80s.

Good times for this precocious wee lad.  I remember heading straight from the bleachers to CBGBs, probably summer of ‘88 or ‘89.  The Bowery was a bit wild and I was very afraid of skinheads.

[77] Froggo- Blame Jimi and Sly. Chuck Berry, Sam Cook, James Brown, Little Richard and a slew of other brothers that said “Hawkins you, honkey”
Love em all.
Wearin’ yer hot dog outfit that evening?

Wasn’t old enough.  Pig in a blanket.

Tadpole inna lily pad.
Rich-[73] I have a very crappy non- digital copy of that fillum.
Yay Toots.

How so?  Holliday LF, Damon DH, Swisher RF.

yeah, you’re right.

Cashman said Granderson is the Yankees center fielder. He does not foresee a situation in which Granderson becomes the left fielder.

I would sort of like to see a Granderson/Gardbrera/Swisher outfield, but I won’t complain since Granderson in center means they will probably sign both a LF and a DH.

Whether or not he’s a net positive signing, I have to admit that having read several quotes from Granderson I already love how he talks - complete, thoughtful, shapely sentences that fold into paragraphs.

[82] Cashman is signing John Dos Passos to a minor league deal as a RF.  Get ready.

[83] What?

If there’s one thing that John Dos Passos can’t do, it’s paragraphs.

[Ref: If there’s one thing that I could do, it’s finger roll.]

Mike Lowell dealt to Texas for Max Ramirez.

Is there any chance at all that the Sox are just finding room for Victor Martinez as a full-time first baseman?

Please tell me that’s the case, and this is not the first step in a big move for the BoSox.

By the way, how the hell does Lowell fit on Texas? They’re set at third, short and second (not that Lowell could play short or second, but just noting that they can’t slide Michael Young over from third to short or second), so what, is Lowell going to play first or, even worse, DH? That seems quite strange.

Aurgh, Keith Law, I like you a lot but why do you persist in deluding yourself over what kind of return star players will get in prospects!!!

Here’s Law on any possible Yankee/Blue Jay deal…

“The problem for New York is I’m not sure I buy the idea that a Montero-centered deal would be the best offer the Jays can get for Halladay. It could be a compelling one—Montero, Phil Hughes, Zach McAllister, plus one is a nice package—but I could see three or four other clubs potentially topping that if they’re so motivated.”

Law just consistently says the same thing and every year he is wrong, and yet he keeps on saying it. “Hughes, Kennedy and Jackson not enough for Santana” and Santana gets traded for a three bean casserole. “Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor not enough for Cliff Lee” and Lee gets traded for a moldy three bean casserole.

And now “Montero, Hughes, McAllister PLUS one (PLUS ONE!!!) not enough for Halladay,” and you just KNOW that Halladay will not get traded for a package anywhere NEAR that haul.

Putting aside the identities of the prospects, Law’s biggest problem is that he has the process backwards.  If “three of four clubs” are “so motivated” to offer the Jays something compelling, then Cashman will have to decide if he wants to get in or pass.  So far, the Angels have offered a nice little SS who’s entering arb, and innings eating lefty who’s entering arb, and a CF prospect who makes Austin Jackson look like a guy who’s already won a few sliver sluggers.

As for the Lowell trade, yes he’d play mostly 1B/DH in Texas.  With Boston picking up $8-9M of his salary, that ain’t terrible.  It could be that the Red Sox think Adrian Beltre will hit 48 HR again if he plays half his games in Fenway.

The Yankees might have the Nats take one of their own players, Zach Kroenke, to make sure no one else does. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse agrees: there’s a chance the Yankees will have the Nats select Kroenke.

BTW, I just found out that this Max Ramirez fellow is a sure-fire all-star even as a 1B/DH, but Jesus Montero is over-rated because he doesn’t have a position.  The things you can learn on teh intrawebs!

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091210&content_id=7791568&vkey=news_mlb&fext;=.jsp&c_id=mlb

(Rafael) soriano to the rays as well. What a flurry in the Al East.

I know this is a stats oriented site but am I really the only one whose first choice would be Matsui?

No, HazMat is my favorite too, though Nick Johnson’s OBP is enticing.

Lowell to the Rangers opens up a couple of possibilities for the Sox:

1) Sign Beltre for 3b, expect Fenway bump in hitting (similar to Lowell himself).

2) Move Youk to 3B, trade for AGon.

3) Move Youk to 3B, live with Kotchman at 1B, make some other move (sign Holliday, trade for Halladay).

1 seems most likely to me.

I like KLaw too, but he does seem to be overly optimistic about what teams will get back for Stars with 1 year left on their contracts.

[55]

Preach it, Cashmoney.  Exactly what I wanted to hear about Granderson’s placement in the lineup.

As for Cano as mentor, I think Kevin Long and the other hitters on the team will be available to make sure that Granderson doesn’t suddenly morph into a hacker.  FWIW, Robinson Cano’s career line is .306/.339/.480, which beats Granderson’s CAIRO projections (by a little).  Against LHP, it’s .300/.341/.453.  It’s not like Robby sucks. 

In reality, I’m not sure how much impact any of that (other hitters, hitting coach) will really have.

Looks like Kroenke was selected by Arizona, Kanekoa Texeira by the Mariners.  Yankees took Jamie Hoffman.

Yankees just took a prospect in the Rule V who mashes lefties. Could stick as fifth outfielder with the current four & allow them to pursue a conventional DH on the cheap. Thus more money for [fill in the blank].

[beer money for OTF maybe???]

This Rule V pick is the kind of move that says, “f*** you, Scott Boras.”

Some will hate the idea of Melky at a corner, but who’s to say what’s available in June/July? The thing that’s 20% cool and 80% scary is that this frees money for Halladay. You’d have to think that Cashman’s line would be Hughes or Chamberlain plus dross, or no deal.

This and other POOMA speculations brought to you by the letter “it’s 10:30 at night in Taiwan and nothing good is on the telly.”

Incidentally, if my POOMA is right and the five man outfield rotation is Swisher-Granderson-Melky-Gardner-Hoffman… I mean wow, that magic binder must have a lot to say about outfield defense. Or maybe the Yankees brain trust, you know, watched some of the games from 2004-08. Instead of having outfielders collide into each other, they could do like figure skating passes and throws.

FWIW, my first choice for DH is to find a way to get Adam Dunn cheap.  Though Dunn has said he doesn’t want to DH, it’s not like he has a choice in the matter.  I don’t think I’ve read anything that would lead me to believe he’d pull a Manny (not put forth effort).  If they can’t do that, my second choice would be Damon.  Everything of course comes down to price.  If the Nats want Montero for Dunn, obviously no.  If Damon insists on 3/36, no.  Especially if Matsui *is* willing to take 1/5.

I like Godzilla.  I just feel that 2009 was his one last hurrah.  Everyone remember last offseason (when we thought we weren’t going to get Teix)?  How many people couldn’t understand why we weren’t going to resign Giambi and lose that offense?  I’m feeling this is kinda the same, with respect to the player anyway.

[97] I really doubt there’s anything to this, but word was that the Royals contacted the Yankees about Gardner after the Granderson trade.  Maybe if they see a deal they like for Gardner, having Hoffman will make it easier.

Rays address a weakness.  Though this could put them in a salary bind.