I’m already pretty sure if the Yankees aren’t in first place by 2 games by Monday morning, we’ll still be hearing a lot of stories of how the Yankees aren’t doing that good so far.

Yes, I know that is completely impossible, which is my point.

Regarding the Wednesday game was there any explanation by Joe G. as to why he stretched CC into the 7th?  It was nice the Yanks eventually won, but it was clear to many here anyway, that CC was lucky to be ahead at the end of 6.

I’m a little worried about this series. Sox on a 7 game roll and Lester is always tough vs. Yanks it seems.  Joba doesn’t seem near as impressive a pitcher since he went on the dl last summer.

I won’t settle for anything less than 4 games out of three!

I’ve been told that Rod Carew could go 4 for 3, so why shouldn’t the Yanks be able to win four games in a three game series?

it was clear to many here anyway, that CC was lucky to be ahead at the end of 6.

“Many here” weren’t there.  Sabathia was under 100 pitches after six, and he didn’t exactly get torched in the seventh (IF single, walk, sac, RBI ground out, RBI single).  The guy is your $160M stud, and has proven over the years that he can throw 120+ pitches without ill effect and get people out when he doesn’t have his best stuff.  I find it interesting that just a couple of days after we had a thread devoted to blasting Girardi for over-managing the pitching staff, we got all worked up about him not having a quick enough hook.  It seems to me that if “many here” were ever actually managing a major league baseball team, they’d need to carry 24 pitchers.

No one will pay for a $2,600 seat if the Yanks can’t even manage to sweep the Red Sox by tomorrow morning.

I have no problem with using CC as the workhorse he is, I think some question why he was left in so long this early in the season.

I don’t really question it, but I can see why some would.

To me, this series depends on how long the starters can last.  If the Yanks BP gets taxed early, there could be big problems.  This nugget is a complete no-brainer, but that’s all I got on a Friday.

The last thing I need is problems since I will be in pain from the NFL draft.  I have no doubt Dan Snyder will order the front office to trade up and draft Mark Sanchez, thereby dooming the Redskins to at least another 5-6 years of mediocrity at best.

I wonder if CC would be ridden quite this hard if Wang handn’t imploded (thus straining the bullpen).

This nugget is a complete no-brainer, but that’s all I got on a Friday.

I don’t see how we can expect four wins in the next 18 hours if this is the best you can do.

I have no doubt Dan Snyder will order the front office to trade up and draft Mark Sanchez, thereby dooming the Redskins to at least another 5-6 years of mediocrity at best.

You might try picking an actual NFL team to root for.

Sabathia was under 100 pitches after six, and he didn’t exactly get torched in the seventh (IF single, walk, sac, RBI ground out, RBI single).

I had a problem with CC pitching to Holliday. He was struggling all day but still manage to get Giambi out, so great job, hit the showers, etc. CC is a stud, and can be stretched, but you got the pen, and you got an off day coming up. Going to the pen wouldn’t have been the worst option.

Supposedly CC ask or wanted to stay in for Holliday and Girardi allowed it.  I don’t know if that was the wisest move, but it’s early in the season, lots more games to be played, so whatevs. Plus the Yankees won.

Have you guys swept us yet? It’s odd, I could have sworn I just read at Sons of Sam Horn that we had already swept you? Maybe Gammo will straighten this out for me…

And Yatt, if your psychological or physical health depends on anything involving the Redskins, I truly feel for you.

o/t: Go Rangers! [As a Bruins fan, I want nothing to do with Ovechkin.]

One last post: is anyone else as amused as I am by the banner ad? If it’s rotating, all I can say is give it a couple tries.

I had a problem with CC pitching to Holliday.

That’s fine.  But distinct from having a problem with him pitching any part of the seventh inning, which is what I was responding to.

One last post: is anyone else as amused as I am by the banner ad?

Personally, I’m neither amused nor “not amused” as it were.  I just don’t understand why anyone would advertise anything other than porn or basement cleaning services on a site like this one.

Between the rotating Fenway and the Obituary Archive ad on the bottom, I’m feeling cloudy on an otherwise sunny day.

<i>Go Rangers!<>

I just had an odd conversation with one of the office’s most rabid Red Sox fans (his theoretical: who should Beckett hit in retaliation for when - not if, when - Joba throws at Youklis?  His answer: Robinson Cano), who as it turns out is a die-hard NY Rangers fan. 

Here I am, a nominal Rangers fan, who realizes I haven’t been paying attention for years and don’t know a single Rangers player.

I may have to remedy that.

I may have to remedy that.

The Swedish goalie is supposed to be pretty sharp.  Henrik Lundqvist.  Just spell his name right and people will think you know your shit.

SSF - gone are the salad days of the Redskins: Gibbs (v 1.0), the Hogs, etc. all orchestrated by a real GM and owner.  Snyder is the NFL equivalent of the 1980s-era Steinbrenner.  Vinny Cerrato couldn’t draft his way out of a paper bag.  It’s wretched.

MC - they are the only team in town.  The only reason I’m a Yankee fan is because there was no team in the DC area when I moved here from NJ as a kid.  Other than that, I’ve got the Wizards and Redskins.  The Yanks have been my only bright spot in the last almost two decades.  Luckily I don’t follow hockey or I’d be watching the Caps blow it against the Rangers.

I think all three games are basically toss-ups with the pitching matchups.  As far as offense, Yankees have an .836 team ops, Red Sox are .837.

The difference could be the relief pitching.  While the Yankees haven’t been as bad as the numbers suggest (6 era in 54 innings), the Sox have been outstanding (2.49 era in 47 innings).

Anyways, go Yanks.

  Luckily I don’t follow hockey

What’s “hockey”?

Relief pitching is the one area where I think we have a significant advantage. Obviously in a short series you can’t count on it mattering: if Burnett and Joba do their work well enough, you guys can get by on Bruney and Mariano. But over time I do think our bullpen upgrades are our strong suit for this season.

Everything else is a push, IMHO, and that’s only the case as long as A-Rod is out.

What’s “hockey”?

I tried to ignore it for a few years—Seattle is off the hockey map. But my kids saw it once and are hooked. I need to teach my 2y.o. the move about pulling the other guy’s sweater up over his head, just to even things out with my 5y.o.

Even setting aside the question of the quality of the back end of our pen, we’re bullish on several arms in the minors - I’d be surprised if the Yankees pen isn’t as good as the RS integrated over the season.

Relief pitching is the one area where I think we have a significant advantage. Obviously in a short series you can’t count on it mattering: if Burnett and Joba do their work well enough, you guys can get by on Bruney and Mariano. But over time I do think our bullpen upgrades are our strong suit for this season.

That’s what I was thinking when writing my nugget.  If the Yanks starters pitch well and long enough, they can get by with Bruney and Mo, with an inning or two from someone else.  If the starters get roughed up, I cringe at Veras/Marte/Coke trying to stanch the bleeding.

SSF:  Is the plan to use Smoltz as a starter or reliever when he gets back?  Either option scares me with all the upside he brings to the table.

Smoltz: starter, though I think the team officially says it could go either way. There was some interesting discussion on SOSH yesterday about who gets demoted from the rotation when Smoltz is ready—or, hell, even when Dice-K comes back. Penny has been replacement-level, but can you pull that guy, knowing he might just need more time? Or do you decide he’s done as an elite starter? Wakefield can’t be skipped, not yet at least. Masterson is the easier piece to move around, and his long-term outlook is more along the reliever lines (needs a third pitch).

Translation? No idea, though my grabbing Buchholz in two fantasy leagues is looking more and more pointless.

RE: Matt Murton from the last thread

I got this from beyondtheboxscore.com:
“Matt Murton should be playing in the majors. Yep, his .499 wOBA is inflated by a 41.2% hit rate, but it is his plate discipline that has really caught my eye. He’s struck out only twice in 65 plate appearances. His CHONE projection calls for a .296/.368/.446 line with +7 run defense in an outfield corner. Someone give this man a big league job.”

So, I guess we can’t get him for Melky straight up…

Masterson is the easier piece to move around, and his long-term outlook is more along the reliever lines (needs a third pitch).

The fact that the Sox have such an effective multi-inning reliever/spot starter in Masterson annoys me.  I wonder if the Yankees have anyone with this kind of potential (maybe Melancon?)

I wonder if the Yankees have anyone with this kind of potential

This year, I’d say it’d have to be Hughes when he gets called up…though if he does, it’ll be to start in place of Wang or to fill in for a DL stint.  So, I guess not…

Masterson: our pasty-white Ramiro Mendoza?

I wonder if the Yankees have anyone with this kind of potential (maybe Melancon?)

I would also add the manager’s refusal won’t use someone in that fashion.

PeteAbe linked to this and it might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever read:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-road-not-taken-Alex-Rodriguez-s-career-with?urn=mlb,158792

the manager’s refusal to use someone in that fashion.

I just don’t understand why anyone would advertise anything other than porn or basement cleaning services on a site like this one.

You’re supposed to use it for target-practice.

I don’t really trust Coke or Marte, but I think Veras is a flip of the coin. You’re just as likely to get absolutely-unhittible-Veras as you are can’t-even-come-close-to-finding-the-strike-zone-Veras. His stuff is pretty outrageously good, it just depends on whether he manages to put it over or even near the plate.

the manager’s refusal to use someone in that fashion.

In 15 games this year I find 14 different reliever-appearances where the reliever completed at least 1.1 IP.  I think Girardi has certainly shown a willingness to use pitchers for more than one inning.  You could correctly argue that some of those times he, “had no choice” (e.g. Wang started).  At the same time as that, to really decide if he “refuses” to do it when he has a choice, you also need to consider game situation, effectiveness of the pitcher, pitch-counts, recent usage, etc.

I think Girardi is *more* willing to use relievers for multiple innings than a lot of modern managers.  That said, he probably still doesn’t do it as much as he *should*.  He’s still only in his 3rd season as a manager though; maybe he’ll start doing it more in the future.

Masterson: our pasty-white Ramiro Mendoza?

Not until he gets a cool nickname like El Brujo.

Steve Phillips predicts or the Pettitte/Masterson matchup, “Whichever starter performs better and can stay in the game longer, that’s the team that will win.”

Terry Kiser reprising his role as Bernie Lomax would make a more competent baseball commentator.

Don La Greco has to be one of the stupidest of the many stupid media sports talking heads as he explained today that if the Yankees take 2 out of 3 from Boston today it will put a lot of pressure on the Sawx to win 2 out of 3 when they visit the stadium.

That Yahoo article… I can’t believe I’ll never get back those five minutes of my life spent reading it. I can’t wait for Part II: Expos Trade Pedro to Yankees.

Babe Never Traded, Sawx have infinity World Series Championships…

Kennedys survive 60s, Boston now US Capitol.

That Yahoo article… I can’t believe I’ll never get back those five minutes of my life spent reading it.

These were pretty much my thoughts after reading it.  I figured the only way to exact revenge was to subject others to the article.

Well played sir.

“a willingness to use pitchers for more than one inning.  You could correctly argue that some of those times he, “had no choice””

eg, in the extra inning game he stuck with Veras for 3 innings.  He could have gone to Bruney, who had maybe pitched 2 in a row already?, or Steven Jackson.  In my heart I think Torre would have gone to SJax after just one inning from Veras and let the rook win it or lose it.  I knwo we were all bitching about it but it worked, didn’t it?

Sox Never Trade Stanley Back To Yankees, Space-Time Continuum Shrugs In Boredom

Here I am, a nominal Rangers fan, who realizes I haven’t been paying attention for years and don’t know a single Rangers player.

I may have to remedy that.

I could introduce you to my high school chum, Chris Drury.  He’ll talk baseball with you if you like.

OT but it surprises me that the Jays won’t play a single division game until the month of May.  Yeah, that’s got to be the reason they are in first place.

He could have gone to Bruney, who had maybe pitched 2 in a row already?,

The first game of the series was rained out, so Bruney had only pitched in one game in a row before yesterday.  But I think there was some thought to save him and give him a rest.

yeah, I was the guy who proposed Murton; I wouldn’t Melky for him, and anyway the point would be platoon with our OFs who can’t hit lefties—Murton is 26 and in the minors for a reason, no?  can’t play center, can’t hit RHP enough to play a corner…

“The first game”

Thanks for the reminder Puj.  Been working so much I don’t know what day it is.

Snyder is the NFL equivalent of the 1980s-era Steinbrenner.

Minus the felony convictions.  Hey, it’s something, right?

Murton is 26 and in the minors for a reason, no?

Murton is in the minors waiting to take Holliday’s spot once Beane trades him for 3 future CYA winners at the deadline.

Many here” weren’t there.

MC- you repeated my phrase twice with your response. Did I touch a nerve? I didn’t mean to imply that I could better manage the Yanks but isn’t second guessing a right that belongs to fans?  If its too difficult to suffer fools, why respond to so many of these posts?

I will say that having read many of your posts that you are very well informed and have made many contributions that I have enjoyed reading.

SG or anyone familiar with fielding stats:

1. It seems like the fangraphs UZR has not been updated for a while. Are there any other places where updated numbers are available?

2. Is there any way to combine revised zone rating (RZR) and out of zone (OOZ) numbers to get an overall number?

I ask 2 because it seems like Gardner has made 20 out of 24 plays in the zone, but he has made 9 plays out of the zone, so that should count for something.

What would be his overall fielding contribution when both are taken into account?

Did I touch a nerve?

No.

...isn’t second guessing a right that belongs to fans?

Sure, and I didn’t intend to complain about second guessing in general, and certainly not you in particular.  If I had wanted to go after you, I wouldn’t have used the “many here” quote, I’d have addressed you specifically.  The point is that you were accurate in describing what a lot of people here thought about the situation, and that thinking was what I wanted to address.

So let me clarify: The constant harping on every pitching change or non-change is something that does annoy me after a while.  Mostly because there are huge aspects of those decisions that we as fans simply do not ever have real knowledge of until after the fact, if at all.  No matter how well-informed we try to be, the simple reality is that we don’t know squat about the day-to-day readiness (physical or mental) of the players, and it’s kind of arrogant of us to pretend to know how much a guy has left based on what he looks like on TV.  MLB managers get the big bucks because they aren’t playing MLB 2009 on an Xbox 360; they have to deal with real human beings performing under constantly changing circumstances.  A well-thought-out “I would have done x when Girardi did y and this is why” is one thing, but all too often it seems that the conversation is about how the guy in the dugout always gets it wrong even though every move should be a complete no-brainer.

A well-thought-out “I would have done x when Girardi did y and this is why” is one thing…

And I should add that there are plenty of examples of this posted here, both by SG and by the “commentariat” as rilkefan would say.

As far as offense, Yankees have an .836 team ops, Red Sox are .837.

But you have to consider park factors. Fenway is a well known hitter’s park while Yankee Stadium is… um…
nvm

MC- I appreciate your answer and thanks for answering many of my questions in the past.

As I was about to say.  Instead I’ll claim that I don’t recall a lot (actually, any) of “how the guy in the dugout always gets it wrong even though every move should be a complete no-brainer” here since the Torre era ended.  Of course that might be age catching up to me - when I learned my former boss is selling his Boxter I had a brief flash of how I could be driving down the 1 in it.

[57] meant to be [55] of course.  I should echo at least the latter part of [56] as well.

“all too often it seems that the conversation is about how the guy in the dugout always gets it wrong”

True.  Though when you get a large sample size of such decisions—as in Torre’s tenure—it becomes possible for mere carping to become a sustainable position even admitting the unknown day to day vagaries of the staff.

It seems like the fangraphs UZR has not been updated for a while.

They update UZR weekly, I think Monday mornings.

Instead I’ll claim that I don’t recall a lot (actually, any) of “how the guy in the dugout always gets it wrong even though every move should be a complete no-brainer” here since the Torre era ended.

Well, two things:

1) I found it annoying even during the latter stages of Torre’s tenure.  Despite 59 (which I enjoyed BTW), nobody is in fact always wrong.

2) You don’t think the game chatter was a tad on the negative side that day?

The start of something?

There’s a truly insipid piece on SI’s site about how Joba should be moved to the bullpen, most of which I skipped, with one exception—where the writer mentions that only three Sox and five Yanks remain from the 2004 ALCS. The teams have been in overhaul mode since then. Now, though, I think it’s largely done. Name the players on each team who are likely to leave in the next two years?

Sox:
Beckett (50-50)
Bay (CW: extension sometime this summer)
5th starter revolving door
Okajima and Saito are question marks
Varitek will eventually be replaced

Yanks:
Mariano?
Damon
Pettitte
Obviously some bullpen turnover
CF still an open question
Matsui replacement?

Very few key regulars or frontline starters are going anywhere in the near future, and possibly not for a while. The Sox have been stabilizing for a year or so; the Yankees did their huge overhaul just this winter. It’s possible that tonight is the start of a new-look rivalry that lasts for several seasons.

“nobody is in fact always wrong”

Have you met a man they call Bud Selig?

Seriously, though, I get your point.

Do you think there should be a baseball version of Godwin’s Law where Selig=Hitler?  If so I killed this thread, but I stipulate that this law shall take effect only beginning with post 65 of this thread.

It seems like the fangraphs UZR has not been updated for a while. Are there any other places where updated numbers are available?

Not for UZR, but CNNSI updates their zone rating numbers daily.  If you want, I can post the spreadsheet I use to pull that data and convert it into runs saved.

Is there any way to combine revised zone rating (RZR) and out of zone (OOZ) numbers to get an overall number?

There are a few different ways, but I haven’t really pursued them given the availability of UZR now plus the ZR data I already pull. 

1) Add OOZ chances to the numerator and denominator of his RZR (this is what zone rating does).  So Gardner’s new RZR would be something like (20 + 9) / (24 + 9).  Do that for everyone to get a new average RZR.

2) Figure out how many balls in play the team has allowed overall, then play around with the distribution to figure how many of those chances were not in the defined zone of any specific defender and assign them out based on in zone distribution or something.

3) Simply figure out a run value for OOZ plays and add them to the RZR run values you calculate.

ABut you have to consider park factors. Fenway is a well known hitter’s park while Yankee Stadium is… um… nvm

Yeah, plus Boston has played nine of 16 at home, the Yankees have only played six of 15 at home.  Too early to make any definitive assessments about the two offenses, although swapping Rodriguez for Ransom should probably make the Yankees offense better than Boston’s.

2) You don’t think the game chatter was a tad on the negative side that day?

Hahaha. Tad negativity, snark, and reverse hoodoo is like the foundation of game chatters.  It might have been as bad as you said, but that bottom of the 7th was tough to take.

“2) You don’t think the game chatter was a tad on the negative side that day?”

Lots of work at the lab lately, was probably reading with one eye while looking at plots with the other, and some of my data would make the darkest thread here look happy.

rilke, the bad data are outliers.  The rest, I’m sure, confirmed your hypothesis.

[accepts honorary degree]

Melky, Molina, Ransom bottom 3, I guess that means Posada starts Sat, Sun.  Is Molina getting the start today because he is less bad against lefties or for Joba’s benefit.

probably both. he was going to start one game this weekend and tonight makes the most sense.

Yeah, Molina 3 for 7 against Lester.  Melky 5 for 8, nice.

It might have been as bad as you said, but that bottom of the 7th was tough to take.

In point of fact, I cut out early for my son’s JV game.  For some reason, I read the whole thread later that night.  At first, I was finding it quite entertaining, but after a while it just became kind of pathetic.  So, lesson learned—from now on game chatters are real-time-only events for me.

Was Tek hit hard or just skimmed?

So, lesson learned—from now on game chatters are real-time-only events for me.

Strangely enough, I do the opposite.  Generally I only do the game-threads real time if I don’t have access to the game on TV or radio.  But I read later, because it often is amusing to when you know the Yankees won 7-3 (or some-such), and see stuff like “top of second: O’s lead off with a double” and the corresponding comments, “Game over, we lost.  We suck so much!”

I can’t do that real time because it is so negative!