I’m not necessarily looking forward to this experiment (though I see no other options).  Reminds me of when they made some $$$ selling those Got Melk? t-shirts.  How long will he last?  I’m guessing we’ll be tired of him by June 15.  Hustle grit notwithstanding

I hope Gardner ends up being good. But I still think that Melky is likely to be the more valuable player.

I look forward to the Brett Gardner era, especially as it is out of my hands.

So you’re saying that you welcome our new Gardner overlords?

Don’t blame me, I voted Beltran.

Begin the countdown to A-Jax!

If I’m being honest, I’m optimistic about Gardner for absolutely no rational reason whatsoever.  But I cling to his speed, his plus defense, his relatively high-OBP in the minors, and his first fail/figure out step patterns of advancement.  I’ll go ahead and call for him a .290/.350/.360 line with good D and 60/15 SB/CS in 500 PAs.  Of course, I invariably turn fanboy during ST.  Give me two months to complete my first in-season manic/depressive swing, at which point I’ll loudly profess future amazement at his ever going above the Mendoza line.

If Gardner hits .290 I’ll eat all of my shoes.

If Gardner hits .290 I’ll eat all of my shoes.

I have to second that.  In his entire minor league career he has a line of .290/.389/.385.

“In his entire minor league career”

Quite possibly misleading for the often-discussed (e.g., [6]) reason.

I’ve had a (possibly irrational) dislike for Melky for years now, so I guess I’m glad to hear it. But yeah, let’s hope A-jax’s power stroke is real.

So what happens to Melky?  Minors or bench?

I’m also optimistic about Gardner.  The pop he’s showed in ST makes me much more confident in his ability to hit MLB pitching.

If he can hit .270, draw some walks, play excellent CF, and steal 40 bases, I’ll be very happy.  I can see him going 270/340/370 with +10 defense and 40SB/10CS.

Honestly have a hard time imagining Gardner OBPing .300 or slugging .350.  I’d definitely take the under on a .649 OPS.

Even better is Ramiro Pena, whom Pete Abraham obviously wants to marry.  I have a fun time imagining historically inept numbers if he were somehow allowed to play a full season:

.189/.215/.222

If Gardner hits .290 I’ll eat all of my shoes.

Super-speedy players who hit a lot of GB often have very high BABIP.  With just a little bit of luck Gardner could hit .290, even if his OBP is only .330 and his SLG .340.  You should have bet on the OPS instead…

So what happens to Melky?  Minors or bench?

Out of options. He’d have to clear waivers to be outrighted to the minors.  And you can only make that move once.

The active roster has 27 on it right now, including 14 pitchers and A-Rod.  A-Rod to the DL, plus two of Aceves, Albaladejo and Giese to SWB gives them room to keep Cabrera and add a utility infielder.  But barring a trade, they’ll have to DFA somebody to open a spot on the 40-man.  Unless there’s a 60-day DL candidate that I’m not aware of.

This was the right move, IMO, so I’m pleased.  That’s not the same as excited… Gardner is a borderline MLB player at best.  Hopefully AJax continues to improve.

I hope for Ajax in center by July.

So, what’s his Sterlingism going to be?  “It’s another worm-killer by The Gardner! ... and he almost beats it out!  I tell you Suzyn, that’s what speed does for you!  Brett Gardner came within a whisker of being safe on that ground ball back to the pitcher!”  “It’s really true, John.  No one else on the Yankees, I mean no one, comes as close to being safe on that ball as Gardner.”

18.  That is brilliant.

12.  The “pop” he showed in ST?
C’mon man, since when does ST mean anything? Gardner hit 0 HRs in 127 ML AB’s, and he has 9 HR in 1456 minor league AB’s.  Aside from juicing, where on earth would this “pop” be coming from? I would trust Melky more than Gardner.  If neither CF is going to get on base, wouldn’t you rather have the one who can at least throw out/hold runners once in a while?

Austin Jackson probably needs to spend a fair amount of time in AAA.  He had a respectable year at Trenton last season, but he didn’t light the place on fire.  He is also only 22 years old.  The best thing would be for Gardner to hit decently well (and I am optimistic in this respect) allowing Jackson to mature and refine his skills.

I only hope that means he’s earned it, rather than Gardner (and Melky) being so bad that even a raw prospect is preferable.

If neither CF is going to get on base, wouldn’t you rather have the one who can at least throw out/hold runners once in a while?

Just for the sake of argument, why wouldn’t you rather have the one who will catch more fly balls?

Err, 21 is in reference to 17.  In between, IE said what I meant anyway.

agreed.  but i could see a situation where Jackson forces himself into the majors by August.  ideally, the team would have a comfortable lead in the standings, which would allow Jackson a relatively pressure-free situation to break into.

i may be overstating the case here, but i have read that Trenton is (the worst?) one of the worst hitters’ parks at any level of the minors.  viewed that way, i think Jackson’s year was much better than it appeared on the surface.  i don’t have the splits, but i believe he was very good on the road as well.

of course, on the other side, maybe we need to start viewing our AA pitching through the same lens….

Defensively, we have reason to believe that Gardner > Melky.  He’s got crazy speed, which has a lot to do with range, and his UZR in the majors (admittedly a very small sample) was awesome.

Melky has far less speed, but has the arm.  With the arm, his overall defense is roughly average, IIRC.

I like the arm, really I do.  But range > arm.

Gardner’s arm isn’t Bernie-bad, right?

i think we assume he has no arm b/c he looks like the Great Gazoo, but i think his arm is basically average. 

not as good as Melky’s, but i don’t think players will be running at will on him like a Bernie or Damon arm.

yup - yeah, trenton’s a pitcher’s park.  I dunno about it being the worst, but his stats are better than they look unadjusted.

Trenton’s park surpresses offense in general, particularly HRs, and increases Ks. 

Still, I would much prefer he get a full year in the minors and see a cup ‘o coffee in Sept.

Looking at the BBTF thread on minor league park factors, Trenton isn’t anywhere near the harshest park for offense.  It’s a pitcher’s park, but there are far worse out there.

Jackson’s PECOTA weighted mean projection:  .248/.312/.383.

On the one hand, ouch.  On the other… hi there, Melky!

found his home/away splits:

.252/.313/.332
.311/.388/.496

close and late!

.323/.410/.484

FWIW, Hughes’ 2006 season in AA doesn’t have a significant home/road split.

and yes, i just discovered this site 5 minutes ago:

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com

Well, Jackson had a fantastic offensive year in Tampa in 2007, which is very much a pitchers park.  In any event, let’s not forget that he’s quite young and played more basketball than baseball as a teenager.  Spending the year in Scranton will do him plenty of good. 

By the way, let’s drop this notion that the Yanks will ever be “comfortably ahead in the standings” this season.  The AL East is the toughest division in baseball.

i think we assume he has no arm b/c he looks like the Great Gazoo, but i think his arm is basically average.

Yeah, that and a few people on the internet “reported” that he doesn’t have a good arm, so now it is officially fact.  Unless you look at John Walsh’s ARM rating on HBT (+1.2 in LF, +3 in CF, SSS and all that) or MGL’s UZR ARM rating (+1 in LF, +3.9 in CF).  I think Gardner probably has an average arm as far as strength and accurracy, but he gets rid of the ball quickly so probably a slight plus.  Melky has a rocket arm true.  But as pointed out above, it’s easier to hold a runner on 2B if you catch the FB, instead of trying to hold him at 3rd when you get the one-hopper.

By the way, let’s drop this notion that the Yanks will ever be “comfortably ahead in the standings” this season.  The AL East is the toughest division in baseball.

True, but the Yankees are going to go 124-0 against non Rays/Sox rivals, so it isn’t a problem, right?

What happens when both the Sox and Rays do that as well?  One team is going to be left out.

Those home/road splits are pretty severe.  Some of that is probably the park, but a lot of it is probably just noise.  It’s not a huge sample.

I think the kid needs more time in the minors, and I hope he gets it.  Though I wonder if I’ll have that same calm, rational thought process in August if the Yanks are trailing, Brett Melkner is sucking, and AJ is doing well. 

Regarding Gardner & defense.  I don’t know if speed is the end all beat all of defense.  Melky has played solid defense at the MLB (or am I way off?) whereas Gardner has had little playing time to make such a determination.  I don’t know that Melky wouldn’t be catching all those same balls that Gardner is *projected* to catch.

OTOH, I could be sooo high on Melky defensively because he looked like a cheetah out there compared to watching years of declining Bernie & Damon.

I wonder how Cano feels about this development.

OTOH, I could be sooo high on Melky defensively because he looked like a cheetah out there compared to watching years of declining Bernie & Damon.

I think that’s part of it.  In 2006 we get Damon who (at the time) made us happy because we had a CF who could get to balls.  He couldn’t throw, but neither could the one before him!  We also got a hint of Melky.  Then in 2007, we got Melky full time.  He could catch the ball AND had a gun.  So Melky suddenly became the gold standard for CF defense.  Now we have Gardner and…not sure what to make of him.

UZR of course rated him very highly last year, but also SSS considerations.  UZR has been more mixed on Melky.  TotalZone for the minors (go to the minorleaguesplits.com site), and he’s generally been a positive, though he’s had some down-years (or half years) as well.  So…I don’t know if Gardner IS (overall) better than Melky in the field.  But he also probably isn’t worse, at least.

I like Gardner’s speed but from what I’ve seen he seems to use it poorly compared to most.  I’ve seen Gardner take really poor routes to the ball a few times last year and in spring training.  I’ve also see him run a lot of singles into outs by trying to stretch them into doubles.

Hopefully those are mistakes he grows out of with experience but I don’t think things are as simple as “He is fast, he can do certain things much better” especially in the short run.

Gardner will have far more range than Melky.  There is no question about this.  Parsing his defense vs. Melky’s though overlooks the real issue, which is that Leche lost his job not because he couldn’t field but because he was an automatic out with the bat for five consecutive months.

.... grant me the srenity to accept the things I can not change

Parsing his defense vs. Melky’s though overlooks the real issue, which is that Leche lost his job not because he couldn’t field but because he was an automatic out with the bat for five consecutive months.

Well sure.  He has to hit.  I think the main question is how much?  If he’s the greatest defensive CF to ever walk the earth (and clearly he isn’t, just making a point), can the Yankees live with a .680 OPS?  Probably, assuming everyone else does what they’re supposed to.  But if he’s just a “good” defender, that likely isn’t enough.  But is .720 enough for good?  .740 for average?

Of course, what we *know* will happen, is if the Yankees are in 1st place at the end of each month - as long as Gardner isn’t an embarrassment - Gardner will be perceived as doing enough, even if that isn’t true.  If the Yankees are more than a few back each month, unless Gardner is outhitting many on the team he won’t be doing enough.  I’m hoping the Yanks are in first, AND Gardner is playing well enough that even the educated can’t complain (much).

Lots of people getting dumped today, wow..

Gardner is traditionally a quick starter, at least he always has been in the minors and in the Arizona Fall League.  I could see him getting out of the blocks quickly as pitchers stay near the plate while making sure not to walk him.  The question is whether he adjusts after they do.  This is something Melky had not done very well.

Maybe I’m a little paranoid, but is anyone else a little concerned about Marte and Bruney?  I know they are pitching today but so far this spring they haven’t looked anything like the 8th inning guys they were expected to be.

A lot of other bullpen pitchers look great but Marte and Bruney are sure bets for roster spots.

What happens when both the Sox and Rays do that as well?  One team is going to be left out.

Yeah, somebody gets left out, but the round robin tie breaker should be a blast.