Let Abreu walk, I agree. But do you feel comfortable with Nady in RF? How does he projects? I think we have a very good chance to sell high on Nady.

He is going to get 3/36 from someone.  His counting stats are still pretty.

He is gone.  They should take that money and reinvest it in another, unnamed free agent.

Buy lowe, sell high.  See you later Abreu.  Thanks for your services.  We will enjoy the draft pick compensation.

Buy lowe

Nice.  Subliminal advertising - I like it!

But do you feel comfortable with Nady in RF?

I feel more comfortable with Nady in RF than Abreu or Melky or Dunn.

How does he projects?

.278/.333/.470 (18.8 BRAR if we give him the same 688 PA that Abreu is projected for).  Defensively, he projects around a -5.  So he should be around a half win better than Abreu in 2009.

I think we have a very good chance to sell high on Nady.

I don’t.  The Yankees got him pretty cheaply when his value was at its absolute highest.  Why would he be worth more than that now?  You may be able to get Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens for him.  I’d rather keep him for 2009.

Thank you, SG.

SG, Does Nady project better than Dunn as a Yankee playing RF?

I’ve got Dunn projected to hit .238/.371/.482 (37 HRs, 29.2 BRAR).  Defensively, he projects about -8.  So he’s maybe a win better than Nady in 2009, but I don’t like his expected price tag or his long-term outlook.

SG, can you explain in layman’s terms (i.e. short, simple words for us idiots) exactly why Cairo is pessimistic about Abreu’s hitting.  I mean, it seems strange to me, seeing as his 2008 offense was roughly the same as his 2005-2007.  Was he hit-lucky this year, or is it just his age, or his walking less, or something else that I’m missing?

So is Marte > $6 million + 1st rounder + sandwhich pick?  Thats a tough one.  I like him, but the other side seems pretty tempting too.

Oh, I think you definitely keep Marte.  If nothing else, if our bullpen winds up as deep as we are hoping, then he’ll be an excellent trade chip at the deadline to help fill in whatever hole has emerged in the roster at that point.

Thats not really the question since he brings back the same picks in 2009 if his option is picked up and he is then let go.

Tom Tresh passed.  He was to be the next Mantle before Murcer was the next Mantle.

Is it possible that Abreu, especially playing for a contract, took it easy with his D, as oppose to risk injury?  I hate to suggest someone purposely underperforming for contractual reasons, and Abreu was always considered a below average defender anyway, but he wasn’t really injured and this season was way offline with his usual numbers.

I would accept that he wasn’t hustling on D to stay healthy because the Yankees couldn’t afford to lose his bat.

Indeed, and this gives the Yanks a year to see what Phil Coke can do and whether he can be effective outside of his small September sample size.

Yes, I guess Coke will be auditioning for a spot in ST, but I hope he makes it and the Yankees start the season with both Coke and Marte on the staff, seeing regular work.

Yeah, I guess that should have been Marte + good chance of 2 picks in 2010 > $6 million + 2 picks in 2009. 

With the picks the Yanks should be getting from Abreu and maybe Pudge, that’s definitely a much easier inequality.

SG, can you explain in layman’s terms (i.e. short, simple words for us idiots) exactly why Cairo is pessimistic about Abreu’s hitting.

a)Aging.  In general, a player’s hitting at age 36 will decline by 3% of his age 35 talent level (a weighted average of 2005-2008 in Abreu’s case).  XBH also decline by 3-5% depending on which you are looking at.

b)Regression towards the mean.  This year I’m using three separate means to regress towards for offense.
- League average (33%)
- Players who play the same primary position (33%)
- Players of the same age (34%)

If you ignore the aging and regression, he would project to hit .290/.386/.460.

But we can’t ignore either.

But we can’t ignore either.

Barry Bonds did.  But that’s a different story, isn’t it? 

Bye Bobby!

I want Coke to start in Scranton for the first month of the season. I think he could be a part of the rotation next year

Yeah, I guess that should have been Marte + good chance of 2 picks in 2010 > $6 million + 2 picks in 2009.

Yeah, I think it’s better to spread out the draft pick goodness over two years instead of one.  I’d rather have 5 picks in 2009 and 3 picks in 2010 than say 7 picks in 2009 and just one in 2010.

Thanks, SG.  You the man.

Yep.  Bye-bye.  Hopefully, Cash has some numbers like these.  Xavier, you might as well start brushing up on your RF positioning.

I still don’t like adding numbers with very different statistical/systematic uncertainties together directly.  5, 7, 4, 26 is not a sequence where I’m comfortable saying what the next number is, or the next, and that’s pretty important in the above assessment.

I still don’t like adding numbers with very different statistical/systematic uncertainties together directly.  5, 7, 4, 26 is not a sequence where I’m comfortable saying what the next number is, or the next, and that’s pretty important in the above assessment.

Well, it’s not really added together, it’s a weighted average based on recency (7/5/4/2) in this case. I forgot to add in some regression towards the mean here so Abreu may be closer to a -10 or so.

But yeah, projecting defense is dicey.  I would agree that we shouldn’t take these numbers as gospel, but I’m not sure what the alternative is.

Speaking of all thes 2009 draft picks…Is there any way to gauge how good of a draft class next year will yield? I know draft picks are impossible to project onto the major league level, but I am talking in terms of talent.

By added together, I meant combining low-uncertainty batting data and high-uncertainty fielding data to come up with a single result dominated by the latter.  One gets the central value right, but I think it’s not necessarily best practice to do so.

Are there any projections for Juan Miranda as a platoon 1b in case we don’t get our first choice?  He had big MiL splits as a LH hitter.

Depends. would you accept Kevin Millar as the right-handed half of that platoon? He’s available, cheap, and would take a 1 year deal.

I might sign up for that platoon… if I believed Miranda could do his thing against major league RHP.

Depends. would you accept Kevin Millar as the right-handed half of that platoon? He’s available, cheap, and would take a 1 year deal.

First Damon, then Millar?  How many 2004 BoSox can the Yanks tolerate?  Might as well ink Satan while you’re at it.

Might as well ink Satan while you’re at it.

Well, I think Pedro is a FA…

And Manny. . .

Signing Milar might be adding by subtraction the way he hits us.

Lets go Rays.  Lets not make Rick Peterson look good.

Who is Karim Garcia?

Is meme blog-jumping allowed?  Or will it create a rip in the space-time continuum and suck us all in?

Are there any projections for Juan Miranda as a platoon 1b in case we don’t get our first choice?  He had big MiL splits as a LH hitter.

I don’t use platoon splits in my projections because until we get up to a significant sample size (like 2000 PA) they are less accurate than just applying the standard platoon ratio (1.05/.95 for RH vs RH, 1.1/.9 for LH vs LH).

Anyway, here’s how I have Miranda projected.

Split   AVG/OBP/SLG
Vs. R   .261/.340/.433
Vs. L   .223/.291/.370
Overall   .248/.323/.411

That line vs. righties would be about 11 runs above replacement level over 600 PA.

Is meme blog-jumping allowed?

As long as we don’t bring Lohud here it’s fine with me.

“Is meme blog-jumping allowed?”

Scary article in the NYT the other day about transmissible cancers.

Please no Millar.  Please no.

Go Rays!!!!!

Wow.  Already?

BJ Upton is “en fuego”

This would be a great day for statistical logic to catch up to Rice-K

Some folks say that cat BJ’s a bad muthah
Shut yo mouth
Just talkin bout Beej.

BJ is having a post season reminiscent of Carlos Beltran circa 2004.

Matsuzaka is also throwing his typical 25 pitch innings, meaning the less than stellar Boston bullpen will have to shoulder a heavy load tonight.

but, but he threw 200 pitches in High School…and he has a gyroball!

I’d be willing to bet that the Mets would take Marte as their closer. A sign and trade is certainly an option for the Yankees with Marte. You really can’t go wrong.. unless they pick up his option and he tanks.q

I’m going to paypal twenty bucks to Kaz’s favorite charity for that ass smack on the great V-tek.

Marte+Cano+IPK for Beltran?

On an unrelated note:  You know what I sometimes recall and can’t believe?  On October 30, 2003, any GM in baseball could have picked Manny Ramirez off the waiver wire.  Not one of them did.

A knife!  Pena has a salted knife!

Ohhhh, Schadenfreude!

Hooray for Carlos Peña
The Tampa Bay first baseman
(I’m in my mother’s basement)
Hooray hooray hooray

This is entirely too enjoyable.  I’m going to have to turn the game off and read me some Julia Kristeva.

<i>any GM in baseball could have picked Manny Ramirez off the waiver wire</i?

That seems almost as surreal as what’s happening the Sox in Fenway.

This next one’s a little something I like to call… Regression to the Mean.

One Two Three Four ... hit it!

So is Veritek calling a good game?  Can we get a ruling on that?

This is kind of fun.
So far.

Puj- Was that an Otis Day and the Knights quote? 55 that is.

So is Veritek calling a good game?  Can we get a ruling on that?

He’ll find a way to make this A-Rod’s fault.

Or Manny’s.

Was that an Otis Day and the Knights quote? 55 that is.

If I say yes, does that make me cool?

any GM in baseball could have picked Manny Ramirez AND Carlos Pena off the waiver wire

Jason Bay has to be the geekiest star player in the game.

Julia K Frog. Maybe not so good in the sack.
Throw a few Hop devils in her and who can say.
Thanks for learnin me sumpin.

Really, Peña was on waivers?  Pags, do you think the Yankees should have gone after him?

DaPuj, is [56] a reference to The Third Man?  Do you have an opinion on that, Dr. Winkle?

I have always thought you were cool.
I’m not the best judge of cool but I think you make it.

Seriously - rooting isn’t science.  I think it’s fully justifiable to not want to reverse preferences regarding players we’ve invested so much time in loving or hating.  I was never attached to Clemens or Boggs.  I’m not crazy about “idiot” Damon.  All this has nothing to do with their potential utility, of course.  But if we can prefer home-grown talent, it seems logical to prefer talent that, if not home-grown, isn’t enemy-grown.

But, but, but… how could the Sawks be losing, when Ortiz, the clutch-est man in history is playing for them?? Is it because these games are all blowouts and Ortiz really shines in those “close & late” situations???

d’oh!!

Yes, WP, yes, you’re right, though I’ve found it easier to root for Damon (and I did Boggs) than Clemens, who’s just clearly an a-hole.  And rooting isn’t ethics, either.  So when people get self-righteous about rooting against the Yankees they just sound silly.

Anyway, go Rays.  I’m out, and I miss you guys already.

Lest we forget. Damon is a trader. Ax anyone.

How come no one else could do this to the Sawks?  They’ve seemed so ripe for it all year, and yet…?

Was it something I said?  If I shut up, will you guys all start writing again?

The Red Sox are the new WOE.

Pete- sometimes the phone rings.
Wonder what Al Leiter and Johnny Franks are saying to the Wilpons re- Kaz.
Has Rick the mullet fixed Zambrano yet?
10 minutes up yet.
Schadenfrued indeed.

I’ve been waiting for Matsuzaka’s correction for 7 f’ing months.  It’s about time.

Papelbon is on in the 7th.  I guess Francona is worried this might not be a replay of 2007.

I’ve been waiting for Matsuzaka’s correction for 7 f’ing months.  It’s about time.

or rather, perfect time

I think we should entertain trading Nady, or at least getting another OF, the second part is pretty obviously needed. we need at least 1 if not two more OFs tihs off season.

As I pointed out in the post earlier, Randy Winn? Fukudome?

I am hoping I never have to give another “nice work by your lads” speech to SSF.
I did it last October and my mouth tasted bad all winter long.
He is a fine fella by my reckoning but still.
Go Phillies.

Yes!  Go Phils.  It’s amusing to root at once for both the winning-est and the losing-est teams in baseball (and surely all) history.
Besides, I went to school there and still have friends there (who root for NYY in the AL).

Although said friend (influenced by the incredible consistency of Phillies history, tells me to add that the Devils have the Phillies right where they want them.
Shades of 86?

The most important thing is now we don’t have to hear about a Red Sox dynasty.

Pete- I had the pleasure of living and growing up in Philly.
Germantown to be precise. Nestled between the Temple Als and the La Salle Splrorerz.
Great town.
I shall post a Fillyspeak paragraph or 2 here before the Series just to crack the lads up.
Byoodyfill.

Aye SG. Theres a lot more of em here in CT. Ask Jonathan.
I’m a happy man.

Hey Balfour, stop dicking around.

Man .. Buck Martinez is a tool of epic proportions.
Does he have the resources to buy a friggin clue?
Joe Morgan is half asleep on his couch, saying to himself
“At least I don’t suck this much”.

OTF… heh, heh.  Yes, that does bring back old times.
My friend’s father used to have (reasonably bad) season tickets, even at Shibe, I think.  And apparently his continuing refrain was always: “Oh, those poooooooooooor, poor Phillies.”

Yeah, that wasn’t what I meant Grant.

Well, THAT’S not good.  Were we celebrating early?

Yes. Fools.

Where was that two weeks ago, Balfour?

Between Wheeler and David Price, the Rays should be able to wrap this thing up.

F-U Joe Madden!  I was really starting to like you and then you have your head up your ass when your team is on the verge of the WS.  An ineffective Righty to face Ortiz there?  Really?  Asshole.

Maddon

Anyone care to bet on the chances of seeing the tying run come to the plate in the 9th?

Anyone care to bet on the chances of seeing the tying run come to the plate in the 9th?

You mean after Boston takes the lead in the bottom of the 8th?

That Fenway crowd of rich college kids living off their Daddy’s dime are loathesome.

SG, I was trying to work the “power of negative thinking” thing, but you have me beat.

How will Maddon explain not putting in a Lefty?  What an F’in douche.

Calm the F down .