The Yankees had a 62% chance of winning yesterday, but they lost.  So you can go and throw your win probabilities into the East River.

“4.83 FIP/4.85 FIP”, “72%”

What’s the uncertainty on that 72%?  I’m surprised to see we win almost 3/4 with this matchup.

no no no…...62% means we had a 48% chance of losing…and we did…..shit happens dapuj!

my math is wrong today, i should put down the blunt…..

38% for the win!

What’s the uncertainty on that 72%?  I’m surprised to see we win almost 3/4 with this matchup.

64% - 80% within one standard deviation.  I was surprised that it was that high too, but the lineup the Jays are running out there tonight is pretty lousy.  It projects to score about 4.9 runs per 27 outs, while the Yankee lineup projects to score 6.5.  On top of that, despite Richmond’s good ERA this year, his estimated talent level is still pretty bad (an RA against in the neighborhood of 6.35).  Conversely, Joba’s estimated RA is 3.84.

Of course, this means the final score will be Jays 22, Yankees 0 or something.

Yankee bats ignite tonight.

Make it all all right tonight.

[someone else continue the lyrics]

Really think pitchers should throw more 0-2 strikes.

Pete, are you actually from wombat territory?  Last night my three-year-old asked me what sound bandicoots make.  Any idea?

Jeter is raking.

[10] clearly the answer is something like Bandi-bandi-bandi-coo-coo-coot!

shit happens dapuj!

I think you might want to address Dapuj’s inner John Sterling, instead.

Mark Teixeira is good at baseball.

Not high leverage enough for Alex.

http://www.bandicoot-books.com/bandicoot_information.html
BANDICOOT SOUNDS

Bandicoots have at least four distinct vocalisations.

When out in the long grass, they have a high pitched whistle that seems to be a way of keeping track of each other. I first noticed this when Bounce and Pounce were first going out away from the nest and playing in the grass. The noise is very like a bird call, not loud, but high-pitched.

They also make a “Whuff, whuff” noise which seems to indicate irritation. Old Scabby often said it when I patted him. He also said it to other bandicoots who tried to share the food dish.

Related to this noise is an alarm call, a fairly loud ‘Chuff,Chuff” noise that is uttered at the same time as a loud whistling squeak. It’s rather like a two-part call: “Chuff-Squeak”. I heard it clearly when one of the less-tame younger bandicoots ran out of the cat door the other night as I entered the porch.

Finally, there is a loud shriek of fear or pain. When one of the adult females chased off a small bandicoot he gave this cry., and I have since heard it on a number of occasions. I suspect the adult bandicoots nip the youngsters to drive home the message “you’re on your own now, I’m not feeding you any longer.”

It doesn’t seem like Tazawa is the answer for the RS 5th starter.

Sox really panicked with bringing Tazawa up. He needed/s way more than 1/2 a year in the minors.

Nice hit, Po.

Ridiculously stupid send, Thompson.

Where the fuck was the third base coach on that ?

Why didn’t anyone tell me the Yankees brought Bobby Meacham back to coach third?

nice to know that Yankee base running hasn’t improved.

Yankee baserunning strikes again.

Yeah, I should have said “right now”.  Who knows if he can get it together, but he was lucky only to give up 2 runs against the Yanks, and he’s given up 3 already in the 1st against Detroit.

[16] Yikes, thanks.  I just kind of squeaked.

Oh, I get it. Cano up next, and there was no point leaving a baserunner on, much less in scoring position. Instead of an unproductive out, we have a leadoff hit next inning. Genius !

[16] like I said, Bandi-bandi-bandi-coo-coo-coot

[26] - I like the way you think.

Joba’s stuff looks flat out nasty right now.  And his command is awesome so far.

[26] Funny thing is, I bet it works!

Now that it is clear the Joba is capable of hitting the mid to high 90s at need, I kind of like the fact that he ranges from 91 to 97 with the fastball.

Um…. yay ?

When Joba throws either his curve or slider for strikes its a very good thing. When he is commanding both…

Cano is ridiculous. I wonder if hypnotism would work. Or just chanting “there is no one on base.”

Pinstriper for manager!

That was beautiful.

And Rilke - sorry, beaten to it.  And as to where I am… wombat country?  Oh, no, not me… at least as far as the law goes… me?  Noooooooooooo, surely not!

Smarter send.

Hmm, I think my win probability was too low.

Richmond has given up seven hits and three runs in 1-2/3 innings on only 30 pitches.

Along with 3 K’s.

[37]Nahhhhhh…. it just makes you appear smarter…

[38] Big fat strikes will do that to you.

Only one ball in play has been converted into an out.  Weird.

Vortex: Engage

Is asking for a granny here greedy?

[39] which, as we know, should have his pitch count at around 73.  Strikeouts raise your pitch count dramatically, right?  That’s what the announcers keep telling me…

[42] and it was a sac fly

MY9 has has problems going to commercials.  They just showed a wide angle shot of the stadium in between innings for like 20 seconds before finally cutting to commercials.

Engage, modamit ! Engage !

Who left the vortex motor on and ran down the battery ?

Every fucking Yankees pitcher: strikes!

Sounds like the Sox are trying to manifest some energy by fighting the Tigers.  Perhaps trying to recapture that 04 spirit.  Keep your mask on Tek!

Walking the guy with the .291 slugging.  Genius!

Jesus christ, strikes.

What was that Alex?

Third mound conference of the inning.

More walks.  That’s what this starting staff needs.

I hate this version of Joba.

[50] Youk and Porcello ejected.

Awesome, apparently Rick Porcello tackled Youkilis..?

Joba is frustratingly inconsistent.

Great mound conference, Eiland.  Really turned that inning around.

Joba, you suck.

this is suck.

I am beginning to think Joba starting in the post-season wouldn’t be the greatest idea, especially not if vintage BattleCat is available.

Pure garbage from Joba. Absolute crap.

RS tied as well. What a disappointing turn of events.

Great mound conference, Eiland.

Well he did tell him to walk Lind and give up a gapper, so Joba was just doing as instructed.

RS tied as well. What a disappointing turn of events.

Cancel the season.

[63] I figure they could stretch out Hughes in time for the playoffs.

Great, now Youkilis will be portrayed as a hero for igniting the Sox to a big win.

Cancel the season.

Nah, just the last half inning of each game.

[69] what did the fight start over? Sox bitching about the Tigers pitching near them?

This game had the feel of an easy victory. I blame A-Rod.

The fact that this game is tied makes me so goddamn frustrated. We actually miss Halladay for a series and we might lose the first two.

It’s not the same as having a video clip, but there’s still a certain amount of satisfaction to watching the gameday animation of the Youklis HBP.

And now Richmond is unhittable.

Posada seems to strike out on that pitch a lot.

Porcello threw up an in to v-mart, and hit youkilis with the first pitch. Cabrera was hit yesterday. Youkilis charged the mound, and grabbed Porcello, which is a skinny kid. He just turned, kind of like a judo player uses the opponent weight, and threw Youk to the ground.

[77] awesome.

I can’t wait to see that highlight later.

No, the Tigers retaliated for the Sox hitting Cabrera in the first. Of course, it was an 0-2 pitch by a very green rookie pitcher, with two guys on and one out. But for some reason that begged retaliation. So they threw at Youkilis.

Well, we can now stop bitching about the game being tied.

Thanks, Joba. What an effort tonight.

Fuck you Joba.

pitiful

OK, seems like we have entered bizarro world now.  Everything has flipped.  A guy that struck out on 3 pitches just launched the go ahead run.

Ok, my bad, I saw the replay and thought it happened yesterday.

[70]
That’s not going to make games at NYS more enjoyable.

[86] I think he was hit yesterday too maybe? I dunno, I haven’t been able to stomach watching much lately. If so, that may have entered into it.

[88] Well,he was taken out of the game during an AB later in the second, so maybe this one hurted him.

I know it is stupid macho bull, but it was nice to see Youk end as the “loser” of the bout. For a moment there it looked like he was going to kick the Veras of the kid.

baseball fights are so dumb

SSF, I don’t think teams throw at other teams to retaliate only for intentional blows.  They mean to protect their hitters, and want you to be damned sure you don’t hit their stars, whether it’s intentional or not.
Even if the green pitcher in red didn’t mean to hit Cabrera, Cabrera’s out of the game, and if he’s injured, he’s no less injured for it not being intentional.

Now its Cy Richmond.  Awesome.

Holy shit, they’re going to lose this game, aren’t they.

I hope this doesn’t become a second frustrating game in a row.

This game has all of the makings of the Yankees offense just lulling to sleep.

[94] Everything is aligned for the Melky walkoff.

[88] Cabrera’s 1st inning HBP was on the wrist or hand, so yeah, that’s a problem. No way intentional, but it didn’t sound good.

feh

So are Yankee hitters taking nights off after the first few innings?

Tigers blow a golden opportunity. This is gonna be a crappy day.