Sunday, August 3, 2008

Before and After

Although the Yankees are scuffling a bit right now, they're still a better team than they were a few weeks ago with the acquisitions of Ivan Rodriguez and Xavier Nady. I've already broken down the Rodriguez and Nady deals, but here's how the whole team looks.

	Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	DR	TR	BR/162	DR/162	TR/162
1	Damon,Johnny	DH	264	.292	.367	.427	37	0	37	112	0	12
2	Jeter,Derek	SS	255	.300	.372	.424	35	-2	33	107	-6	11
3	Abreu,Bobby	RF	250	.283	.377	.455	37	-4	33	113	-12	11
4	Rodriguez,Alex	3B	246	.309	.408	.580	48	0	48	145	0	16
5	Giambi,Jason	1B	239	.248	.390	.480	38	-3	35	115	-9	11
6	Cano,Robinson	2B	232	.291	.332	.459	31	1	32	95	3	10
7	Cabrera,Melky	LF	225	.268	.332	.385	26	1	27	79	3	9
8	Molina,Jose	C	220	.235	.278	.329	18	2	20	55	6	7
9	Gardner,Brett	CF	204	.237	.318	.303	19	0	19	59	0	6
	Total		2134	.275	.354	.429	288	-5	283	881	-15	865

On a full season basis, the pre-trade Yankees starting nine would project to score 881 runs if they played all 162 games using their revised projections including YTD performance, while being around 15 runs below average defensively.

	Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	DR	TR	BR/162	DR/162	TR/162
1	Damon,Johnny	DH	267	.292	.367	.427	37	0	37	113	0	12
2	Jeter,Derek	SS	258	.300	.372	.424	35	-2	33	108	-6	11
3	Abreu,Bobby	RF	252	.283	.377	.455	38	-4	34	115	-12	11
4	Rodriguez,Alex	3B	249	.309	.408	.580	48	0	48	147	0	16
5	Giambi,Jason	1B	242	.248	.390	.480	38	-3	35	117	-9	11
6	Cano,Robinson	2B	235	.291	.332	.459	31	1	32	96	3	11
7	Nady,Xavier	LF	227	.288	.350	.493	34	0	35	104	0	11
8	Rodriguez,Ivan	C	222	.281	.312	.412	25	3	27	78	9	9
9	Cabrera,Melky	CF	206	.268	.332	.385	24	1	29	72	3	9
	Total		2157	.285	.361	.457	310	-4	310	949	-12	937

The post-trade Yankees would project to score 949 runs, again using their revised projections, while being 12 runs worse than average defensively. So over a full season, the new Yankees are 68 runs better offensively and three runs better defensively, so about six wins better overall on the position player side.

Over the remaining 52 games, the post-trade Yankees are about 24 runs better if you look at offense and defense, which is a little more than two wins better.

Now obviously the starting nine wouldn't play all the games, so we should knock down the runs to account for bench playing time. If we add in 500 replacement level plate appearances to the pre-trade Yankees over the rest of the season, we lose about 18 runs. If we do the same to the post-trade Yankees we lose 23. So it's still basically about a two win difference overall.

Giving the team 1500 replacement level PAs over a full season knocks the run totals down by 54 and 72 respectively, so you're looking at a 826 run team versus a 877 run team.

One key thing to note is that these numbers are calculated against the number of outs the team will make. As you can see, the improved OBP for the post-trade Yankees gives them an extra 23 plate appearances.

If only they didn't have to play the damn Angels 50 more times...

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