Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Comments
I kind of don’t want any more metrics that remind me of how awful Cano has been.
what about his SGWTL+?? that’s “Smiles per Game While the Team is Losing” adjusted for league and ballpark.
I am wondering whether Abreu’s awful defense this year is somewhat of an outlier given that over his career he has generally been near average and whether he may return to being in the -10 range next season.
Last night, Sterling and Waldman were speculating that Abreu would ask for a three year deal, which even they were smart enough to know wouldn’t be coming from the Yanks, but at least the guy has been one of the few to hit well in tight situations this season.
Could you throw up your non-contextualized BRAA in a column right next the positional adjusted ones like you did a few posts ago? I had seen the fangraphs data, but never really got a hold of how it related to the batting runs as I had come to know them here on this site.
Who are the top and bottom 5 in the AL in cpBRAA? (contextualized, position adjusted BRAA)
what about his SGWTL+?? that’s “Smiles per Game While the Team is Losing” adjusted for league and ballpark.
Also needs to be adjusted for GSatT (game score at the time) and PoM (presence of Melky).
Last night, Sterling and Waldman were speculating that Abreu would ask for a three year deal, which even they were smart enough to know wouldn’t be coming from the Yanks, but at least the guy has been one of the few to hit well in tight situations this season.
He’s also seeing 4.3 p/pa—2nd in the league, best on the team, tied with Giambi (and a couple of others). I think losing both Abreu and Giambi would make WOE really notfunwatching.
I’m starting to wonder if the Yanks are going to try and trade for either Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. After all, dealing Hughes for a young, proven position player under team control is less risky than signing a pitcher to a seven year deal.
There is also an interesting article by Ken Davidoff in Newsday about how cheap the 1996-2001 Yanks were regarding the support staff, refusing to vote them post-season shares even though some of them make just $30,000 per year. That doesn’t say great things about O’Neill, Jeter, Bernie or Tino.
I think losing both Abreu and Giambi would make WOE really notfunwatching.
Even if you replaced them with Teixeira (solidly over 3.9) and say Dunn (solidly over 4.2) or Burrell (right at 4.2), none of which appears to be an anomoly? I’d be much more comfortable giving Burrell or Dunn a 3+ year contract and move Nady to RF than give Abreu 3+ years; at the worst the defense wouldn’t be any better (overall), but the offense probably would be.
Mmmmmmm! Prince Fielder & CC Sabathia on the Yanks! Sumo fans should be happy. Vendors too! 
Why would the Phillies part with Ryan Howard?
That doesn’t say great things about O’Neill, Jeter, Bernie or Tino.
Is the article available online? W/o knowing the the details of how the voting goes (show of hands? anonymous?), I don’t know if that says *anything* about those 4; for all we know they’re the only ones who *did* vote for shares for the support staff? Of course the article may specifically say, “O’Neill, Jeter, Bernie, and Tito specifically spoke out against the support staff getting a share”...
Mmmmmmm! Prince Fielder & CC Sabathia on the Yanks!
That would be awesome.
I don’t know if that says *anything* about those 4; for all we know they’re the only ones who *did* vote for shares for the support staff?
or, what was even the accepted practice at the time? did every other playoff team vote shares to those people?
if they do now, when did it start?
i guess i could look for the article myself, but i am lazy.
Could you throw up your non-contextualized BRAA in a column right next the positional adjusted ones like you did a few posts ago?
Done
Who are the top and bottom 5 in the AL in cpBRAA? (contextualized, position adjusted BRAA)
Posted top and bottom 25. Good news for Cano fans, there’s someone who’s been less valuable.
The article basically says that Giambi was the one who convinced his teammates to be more generous with the support staff, which he did in 2003 after he had built up some credibility after playing for a season. Apparently, this was a longtime practice of the A’s. Damon also says the Red Sox of 2004 were similarly stingy with their support staff.
The article basically says that Giambi was the one who convinced his teammates to be more generous with the support staff, which he did in 2003 after he had built up some credibility after playing for a season. Apparently, this was a longtime practice of the A’s. Damon also says the Red Sox of 2004 were similarly stingy with their support staff.
Hmmm. I begin to see a pattern:
Stingy with support stuff = win championships.
Generous with support stuff = loser!
Giambi had a vested interest in keeping the guy who cleaned up the needles happy.
Giambi had a vested interest in keeping the guy who cleaned up the needles happy.
Wow, yup. That’s harsh!
i went for the cheap laugh. like i said, i’m lazy.
So, executive summary:
Cano sucks. Can’t trade him, value to low.
Likely loss of Giambi and Abreu will degrade offense.
Likely decline of Damon will further degrade offense.
Possible organic upgrades include Matsui and Posada pending health.
Conclusion: Need 2 or 3 impact bats (def .375 OPB or higher, .500 SLG or higher.)
Cano and Melky worse then Molina. That says a lot about this year. Its nice that Long plans to work full time with Robbie in the off season but is he really the right guy for the job? Maybe its time for a new batting coach who can get the twosome’s attention.
KLong was also batting coach last year, when both Cano and Melky did pretty well for themselves. Now he’s no longer good enough?
Sometimes people stop listening to the messenger even if what he says is spot on. I think its possible that Cano and Melky just tuned Long out rather then he didn’t know what he was talking about. I’m also trouble by the decline in the walk rate on this team though I guess a lot of that effect is due to Posada’s injury.
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