This post needs more cowbell.

What we need is the baseball equivalent of the NIT.

this is hilarious.

hey, it was a pretty good run.

new stadium, new team, new run starts next year.

What we need is the baseball equivalent of the NIT.

Isn’t that the NL Playoffs?

Your pie graphs remind me of the spinning wheel of death on Macs

Spectacular.

I like the Oriole’s chances.

Anyone else not giving up besides me?

Anyone else not giving up besides me?

I’m certainly not going to be giving up until they are mathematically out of it.  However, if they don’t make a move over the next six games - pick up AT LEAST a game on both the Twins (and/or White Sox) and Red Sox - my optimism will be at it’s lowest point since probably 1993.

On the plus side, next year’s team figures to be younger and to be planned with more fault tolerance.  There’s a world of difference between needing Ian Kennedy to be a starter (with no good fallback plan) and having him in AAA as a 6th starter.  I’m sure that even after this year, he projects to be well above replacement level in that role.

For those that want to remain optimistic…everyone remember the 1990 Yankees?  Probably the worst Yankees team that most of us here remember (with the exception of a few who remember teams from the late 60’s).  That was a BAD team.  But even that team, had a 5 and a 6 game winning streak in August of that year, including a sweep of a Blue Jays team that had the 2nd best run-differential in the league.

So yeah, it looks bleak, and the Yankees have a lot of work to do.  But anything can happen.  Even if this is a bad team.

There’s a world of difference between needing Ian Kennedy to be a starter (with no good fallback plan) and having him in AAA as a 6th starter.

You know, I know he gave up a lot of runs his last start, but he only walked one guy and he struck out 9 in 5 IP. Granted part of that is because he saw so many extra batters because he allowed so many hits, but the walks and Ks (20/3 ratio in August) are way more important to me than him keeping runs off the board in any particular start. Over the long haul, he needs to keep runs off the board too obviously. So yeah, I agree with you on that point.

There will also be the possibility of going to Jackson next year if CF is a problem again. There were absolutely no offensive options in the minors this year.

I’m certainly not going to be giving up until they are mathematically out of it.  However, if they don’t make a move over the next six games - pick up AT LEAST a game on both the Twins (and/or White Sox) and Red Sox - my optimism will be at it’s lowest point since probably 1993.

Yes, I’m not giving up either.  “At least a game” is stretching it.  If they don’t pick up 2 games before Labor Day, it’s going to be tough. 
If only they were chasing one team, and not two.

If they don’t pick up 2 games before Labor Day, it’s going to be tough. 

Yeah, I know.  Picking up a game they’d be 5 behind each, but with 3 games yet against Boston.  Unfortunately, the Twins have I think 16 games left against Oakland, Seattle, KC, and Cleveland.  But I can remain optimistic if they are making progress at least.

The colors are distracting me, but I’m pretty sure what you’re trying to say is the Yankees suck. Again, it could be the colors. They are confusing and disorientating.

There will also be the possibility of going to Jackson next year if CF is a problem again.

I was hoping they’d look to get a stopgap until AJax is ready. What you’re implying is that we can expect to see Melky again as our regular CFer. Or, at best, Gardner. I know he’s got some kind of weird illness but we should take a flyer on Baldelli.

There’s a world of difference between needing Ian Kennedy to be a starter (with no good fallback plan) and having him in AAA as a 6th starter.

The fallback plan for Kennedy was Joba, plain and simple.  That’s a good fallback plan.  The fallback plan for Hughes was taking the best of Rasner/Karstens/Marquez/Horne.  You would have figured ONE of them would have done OK.  Karstens was traded (smart move), Marquez and Horne between injuries/not pitching well took themselves out of the equation.  All things considered, I think Rasner has done fine for a 5th starter.  Unfortunately, at times this year he’s been asked to be a #3.

When Wang went out also, and now also missing Chamberlain that hurt, a lot.  Most teams I think would be hurting when 4 of their top 6 starters miss significant time w/ injuries…

And I generally agree with Cowboy on Kennedy.  I just really want to see that fastball get those 3-4 MPH back.  He doesn’t need it to pitch like a power-pitcher, but if he has it, it can be an out-pitch.

I know he’s got some kind of weird illness but we should take a flyer on Baldelli.

Describing Baldelli’s condition as ‘weird’ doesn’t do it justice.  His mitochondria don’t function correctly.  That has to be the strangest ailment for an athlete I have ever heard of.

Unfortunately, the Twins have I think 16 games left against Oakland, Seattle, KC, and Cleveland.  But I can remain optimistic if they are making progress at least.

Unfortunately? That’s great, it’ll make it easier for them to take the Wild Card from Boston.

What you’re implying is that we can expect to see Melky again as our regular CFer. Or, at best, Gardner.

There aren’t a whole lot of good options out there. And Melky is too good for AAA.

I know he’s got some kind of weird illness but we should take a flyer on Baldelli.

Sigh. I’m not getting into this again, I’ll just say I think he’s a lousy option. I’d much rather see Marlon Byrd.

I just really want to see that fastball get those 3-4 MPH back.

I’m starting to wonder if velocity is a bit fickle with younger pitchers.

Seriously…I freaking love this blog.  I mean, where else can we have pie charts and histograms.  I am now exclusive to RLYW…

What are the odds of a boy like you and a girl like me getting together?

What are the odds of a boy like you and a girl like me getting together?

I’m sure SG can compile a pie chart and/or a histograph to figure that out.

*histogram

I was hoping they’d look to get a stopgap until AJax is ready. What you’re implying is that we can expect to see Melky again as our regular CFer. Or, at best, Gardner.

If they improve offense at catcher (Posada is going into ST as the catcher, so no use saying otherwise), OF/1B (Nady is probably better than Abreu, Tex should be at least as good as Giambi.  Or Dunn as good as Giambi.  Or Burrell/Nady as good as Abreu/Giambi), and 2B (Cano’s better than this, we know it), they can live with replacement-level offense in CF.

If we don’t win 4 of our next 6 I hope we trade Moose, Marte, and/or Pudge to Philly for some prospects.

By the way, Abreu is actually still a very solid offensive player and he seems to excel against power pitchers.

If we don’t win 4 of our next 6 I hope we trade Moose, Marte, and/or Pudge to Philly for some prospects.

Philly doesn’t have any prospects. And if they trade Moose I will stop watching the team for the rest of the year. And Marte is part of next years bullpen, so he’s not getting traded.

I’m not giving up on the season just yet, but I don’t want the Yanks to rush Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain back to make a late move to the playoffs.  See if the team can turn it around with what they have and let Hughes relax a bit and work on his stuff in the minors.  Let Joba rest as much as possible.

I have no idea what’s up with Kennedy; however, I do find it a little odd that on one hand, Kennedy was thought of as a 4 or 5 starter, 3 at best.  A back of the rotation guy.  A guy with not a lot of power, but relying on finesse.  At the same time, he rocketed through the minors last year - something that finesse guys generally don’t do. 

Most finesse guys seem to need time to refine their pitching, but Kennedy didn’t seem to need that when he made his MLB debut.  Now it looks like he may need additional time in the minors.  I’m not advocating the burial of Kennedy in the minors for another 3 years, but I think planning on him spending the first half of 2009 in AAA would be wise.  Plus, if the Yanks do get CC and have Wang back, as well as one of Mussina/Pettitte, there’s probably not room for Kennedy anyway.

I’d love to see Alan Horne stay healthy and compete with Kennedy for a spot in the rotation sometime in 2009, but that’s probably asking a lot.  I’d also like Christian Garcia stay healthy and become a prospect again - he was supposed to have some of the best stuff in the system before going down with another injruy.

If the Yanks can retool their lineup, they can afford to carry Melky in 2009 if Jackson needs another year in the minors.

Sigh. I’m not getting into this again, I’ll just say I think he’s a lousy option. I’d much rather see Marlon Byrd.

Ooh, that could be good.  If Byrd gets sent to Scranton, you’d hear the loudest booing you could get.  I know a lot of people around here are more local AAA fans than anything, and last time Byrd was with the Red Barons, he got treated like ARod in 2006.

I’m not quite as against Baldelli as you, but I don’t want him to be “the plan”.  I think it would be quite astute - if he were still around - in late Jan/early Feb to offer him a MiL deal with an invite to ST, and then start him in AAA (he can play the corner OF spots).  But no, I wouldn’t give him a Major League deal.

I’m starting to wonder if velocity is a bit fickle with younger pitchers.

Could be.  We can hope he’s back with the velocity next year, and then is old enough it stops being fickle.

Marte, Moose + Pudge for Chase Utley!  Make it happen, Cash Man.

Cowboy, I totally agree, if Moose is gone, there’s realistically nothing left to root for this season.  Maybe the return of Joba and Hughes, but other than that…And anyway I want Moose to come back next season.

Fine, just send Pudge.  I just want to help Philly since I hate The Mets more than anything in this world.

Philly doesn’t have any prospects.

I wouldn’t mind on August 31 if the Yanks are out of it doing Pudge for
J.A. Happ.  Don’t know if Philly would do that.  But yeah, he’s the only player at least in AAA that even rates as a prospect, though not that highly.  Hmm.  I think I’d rate him higher than a supplemental pick in next year’s draft.  I’m not solid on that though.

Besides that yeah.  Marte is on the the team next year.  Moose is staying.

Let Joba rest as much as possible.

I agree don’t bring him back unless he’s ready.  But if he’s ready, pitch him.  He’s only at 89 innings this year.  If he gets 5 more starts that should get him around 120, which puts him at pace for around 150 next year.  They should be able to have him as a starter all year and still manage that, and then 180 in 2010 and he’s basically a full-time starter.

You stop him now (like Nomaas is suggesting), or only let him get a few more innings, and he is at maybe 100 innings.  Now you’ve got to pitch him out of the pen or shut him down for a good portion of the year next year to keep him at 130 innings or less.  Then he won’t be ready for full-time status until 2011.  Shutting him down or limiting him could potentially be WORSE for his development, not better.

I’d much rather see Marlon Byrd.

is he a free agent?

is he a free agent?

I can’t tell. The more I look at it on Cots, the more I’m not sure, but I think no. I had assumed he had been around long enough.

By the way, Abreu is actually still a very solid offensive player and he seems to excel against power pitchers.

Good, some team (not Yankees) should offer him a nice big fat long contract.

If we don’t win 4 of our next 6 I hope we trade Moose, Marte, and/or Pudge to Philly for some prospects.

screw that, offer e’em all arbitration and collect the picks.

so you’re saying there’s a chance…

joe nathan is really fuggin good

Good, some team (not Yankees) should offer him a nice big fat long contract.

His only viable future worth to any team is as a DH. God, he’s a horror show in RF.

His only viable future worth to any team is as a DH. God, he’s a horror show in RF.

You could say that about a lot of players still getting time in the outfield.  Somebody will pay him to play outfield for them.

SG, how about a simple analysis of what went wrong with the 2008 yankees as compared to all the preseason projection systems?

not necessarily on a player by player basis, more like offense/defense/pitching.

many people are hung up on the fact that Ponson is here or Hughes/Kennedy were busts, and that was some sort of failure by the organization in the offseason.  but i look at the pitching, and i think it’s been about league average.  it’s held together pretty damn well, all things considered. 

to me, the story of this season is not the failure to trade for Santana or counting on Hughes or Kennedy, it’s been the inexplicable collapse of a 950+ run offense.  even if you accounted for various declines in performance, what would have been a reasonably PESSIMISTIC view of the offense: 850 runs??  wouldn’t that put this team right in the thick of it? 

but this team is on pace for 778 runs.  why did this happen?

i guess i am looking for what the projection systems thought about the # of runs they’d score and the # they’d give up, and some sort of analysis as to WTF has gone wrong.

thanks.

Mike K, hope you caught my admonition closing the previous thread.

Mike K, hope you caught my admonition closing the previous thread.

Oh yes.  I’m cowering in terror! 

SG, how about a simple analysis of what went wrong with the 2008 yankees as compared to all the preseason projection systems?

Murphy’s Law?

Personally, I agree with you on offense v. pitching.  Sure, it would have helped if the pitching had been better this year, but that definitely hasn’t been the problem.  Trading for Santana (or CC during the season) would have added maybe a win or two, at most.  The offense playing like they should have, probably would have added 5 or 6 wins by now, maybe as many as 10.

An analysis of what went right would be simpler

An analysis of what went right would be simpler

It would certainly take less time:

Mike Mussina.  Dassit.

An analysis of what went right would be simpler

Moose.  The bullpen for the most part.  Damon (excepting Friday).  That cover it?

even if you accounted for various declines in performance, what would have been a reasonably PESSIMISTIC view of the offense:

SG can do a far better job than I, but here are the Diamond Mind sims he ran.
Part 1
Part 2

The lowest was 850 runs, and the aggregate low was 875 runs.  That of course is within a standard deviation of the averages.  But I’d hazard based on this that the 850 you suggested is probably around the bottom of the range we could have reasonably expected.  So over the course of the season what, 8 wins more?  If the Yankees had 6 wins more right now they’d be tied for the WC.

Note the overall shift in offense this year - if you posit that there’s an external cause, it would make sense to scale those projections down by 4% or whatever, which is nearly 4 wins I think.

thanks Mike.  i guess maybe i am trying to understand how we got from the 917 runs we were projected to score to 778.  150 fewer runs than expected.  incredible. 

is it situational?  if so, i’d expect a bounce next year without doing much.

is it age?  is there something to this power/finesse thing and the Yankees are just old? 

is it Posada/Matsui missing so much time?

is it Cano?

obviously, the answer is all of the above, but i guess i’m curious how it all breaks down.

it seems like we are basically right on target in the Runs Allowed column.

very frustrating.

If 850 runs was our losest estimate and expected runs are distributed normally, does the 850 represent a one sigma deviation from the mean(bottom 16%),two sigma deviation (bottom 5%) or three sigma deviation(bottom.5%)?  Perhaps the standard deviation was underestimated?

The ‘07 version says: StD RS Runs scored range within one standard deviation.  So taking a ~36-run shift this doesn’t seem that out there.

Perhaps the standard deviation was underestimated?

You’re starting to get beyond me.  I think when SG ran the sims through Diamond Mind, he took the RS for each season, and then computed the mean and (I’m guessing one) SD for all of the samples.  I think the range he gave was just to illustrate what we could reasonably expect from the Yankees.  Any deeper answer I cannot give you…and of course the answer I gave you could be completely wrong as well!

screw that, offer e’em all arbitration and collect the picks

Pudge would accept arbitration and hold out for a hearing, where he’d get an automatic raise on his $13mm. You can’t risk offering him arbitration (unless he’s agreed to a secret deal to decline). Draft picks are valuable of course, but I think people are overestimating the amount we’re going to collect this offseason. Abreu - sure. I think Pettitte either pitches for the Yanks next year or he goes home. Possibly the same with Moose.

The Yanks have to buy out Giambi out of his option year at $5 mil, so I’m not even sure, if he becomes a FA, that the Yanks can then turn around and offer arbitration. Anyone know the answer to that? And if he were offered arbitration, he’s another one that would automatically accept. Pavano? Ha! I guess he’s a Type-Z FA.

The mean number of expected runs score was 917 what was the StD expressed in runs?

Projections don’t really project a player getting injured, but we all know they happen and they happen more frequently with older players.  The Yankees depended on 7 of 9 spots in the line-up to not decline rapidly and/or get injured.  Outside of A-Rod, I don’t think that was a very good bet.  Posada and Matsui went down to injury, Abreu’s OBP and defense continues to disappear, Jeter’s into his decline, Damon and Giambi have been good.  There were too many older vets in their decline years and no talent at AAA to step up.  Add in Cano’s horrific April followed by an up & down off-year for a young player and Melky’s offensive black hole and lo & behold there’s 200 runs.

It’s a tough year, but as was pointed out in a recent piece in the NY Sun, if teams don’t decide to rebuild, the baseball gods decide for them.

From #47 I gather one StD was either 42 or 67 runs.  If it was 42 we are well out of the 3 sigma range in other words it was >99.5% unlikely we would score as few as 778, if it was 67 then our result would be 2 1/2 sigma or ~95% unlikely.  Given both the known knowns(to quote Rummy) Jeter regressing, etc and the unknown knowns injuries, a rookie appearing out of the blue, etc. I would think that at least 42 runs would be too low for one StD

I don’t think it’s automatic that Pudge accepts arbitration.  Both he and Posada have very strong personalities, and I don’t know that Rodriguez would want to share playing time with, and play second fiddle to, Posada.  Assuming that Posada is back to normal, Pudge would be a backup - would he really want that role?  Also consider his age: if someone wants to offer him a 2-3 year deal, wouldn’t he jump at it, rather than getting an arbitrated 1-yr deal?

If I were Pudge’s agent I would have no doubt that he could get a multi year deal.

Also, it was my understanding that the automatic raise only applied to pre FA players (and please correct me if I’m wrong) so that means Pudge will likely be awarded substantially less than 13 million in arbitration.

If I were Pudge’s agent I would have no doubt that he could get a multi year deal.

Yes, especially considering that agent is Scott Boras.

I see 875-973 for the combined projection systems.  That gives a mean of 924 and a sigma of 49.  924 - 37 (scaled shift in league performance) -778 = 109, or 2.2 sigma.  So it’s not clearly ruled out that this is consistent with projections.

2.2 sigma is 1.4% on either end of the tail which suggests either an incredible series of improbable events occurred or the StD is bigger then given which seems likely to me for as Serling so often says “you just can’t figure baseball.”

Measure seventy things and you should get a result like this - e.g. predict two seasons of team scores.

But yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are tails in real life not captured in the models.

Maybe a combination of injuries to Wang, Posada, Hughes, Bruney plus the underperformance of so many players and the ineptitude of Hughes and IPK are a 1.4% event or do crazy things always happen and StD should be larger?

” i guess maybe i am trying to understand how we got from the 917 runs we were projected to score to 778.  150 fewer runs than expected.  incredible.”

They lost Posada for almost the entire year, which is huge (even assuming a regression from last year’s awesomeness).  They lost Matsui for most of the year, also big.  They lost ARod for what, almost a month?  Those are big, big bats.

Cano, Melky, Jeter and Abreu also underperformed projections, as did the various bench guys (Ensberg, Duncan, Betemit…).  Then add in the awful clutch hitting, even from guys who have hit (ARod, Giambi). 

Getting good work from Damon and Giambi simply wasn’t enough to counteract all that.

So, the way I see it, it’s a combo of bad injuries + a horrid year for Cano, decline for Jeter (though he will finish ok I think) + some sort of karmic reaction to ARod’s awesomeness in the clutch last season.  It’s Murphy’s Law on the baseball diamond.

As you said Rilke there are inaccuracies built into any projection model.  In real life assuming you’re not standing outside of MSG after a basketball game and you see someone selected randomly who is 2.2 sigma shorter then the mean the probability of having selected that person is 1.4%.

Re 62: if you measured 70 events I would guess you’re much more likely then not to see a 2.2 sigma event sort of like the “birthday paradox,” a hypergeometric distribution would apply.

“you see someone selected randomly who is 2.2 sigma shorter then the mean the probability of having selected that person is 1.4%”

Probably the distribution isn’t normal, because there are people who got sick a lot as kids, or were undernourished, whereas very few things cause people to be unusually tall.

True you’d have to control for age, health, gender,geography etc.

on a non-yankees note:  I saw Webb won his 19th last night, how many will he win this year?  23?

I’m still sticking with Labor Day as my checkpoint. Five games out or more on then, then I give up.

Phil Hughes mystery broken ribs started the mess with the rotation, followed by the Wang injury. Honestly, just how did he [Hughes] break those ribs?

I was against the Posada deal; had they not signed him they would have had to make moves well before the season began. I still believe the four year deal was a big mistake. You gotta know when to hold ‘em & know when to fold ‘em.

Phil Hughes mystery broken ribs started the mess with the rotation, followed by the Wang injury. Honestly, just how did he [Hughes] break those ribs?

stress fracture - repeated motion. Not common, but not unheard of.

Pudge would accept arbitration and hold out for a hearing, where he’d get an automatic raise on his $13mm.

Pudge would not accept arbitration.  He still thinks of himself as a starter and he fully expects to get multi-year offers.  And in the unlikely event that he did accept, he would not get a raise.

The Yanks have to buy out Giambi out of his option year at $5 mil, so I’m not even sure, if he becomes a FA, that the Yanks can then turn around and offer arbitration. Anyone know the answer to that?

Yes, they can buy him out and offer him arbitration.  Teams can offer their FAs arbitration regardless of the circumstances that led to the players becoming FAs.

I was against the Posada deal… I still believe the four year deal was a big mistake. You gotta know when to hold ‘em & know when to fold ‘em.

Yeah, yeah, yeah…  But in this universe, there is absolutely no freakin’ way in hell that they were going to let Posada go to the Mets.  They’d have given him 5 years at $20M per if that’s what it took.  It wasn’t a baseball decision.

The Orioles are starting a guy with a 7+ ERA?

Well, I guess we’ve done that, so…

Game thread?  [Say “please”, Rilkekind.]  Game thread, peez?

3 straight hits to start the game provide just 1 run and 18 total pitches.  It’s comic, almost.

Oh no, it’s Moose vs Orioles.

Just finished a run off the Hudson River in time to turn on the radio for Arod’s at bat and I just want to say concisely-God Arod sucks.  Oh yeah also God Giambi sucks.  The last month or so we might have done better with Sojo and Enrique Wilson batting 4/5

I’m betting in October after the games becomes meaningless Arod will have a giant month.  For most of his Yankee career I was hiding behind cognitive dissonance and tried to pretend that Arod wasn’t unclutch despite all the unfavorable nicknames he received here and then last year he was great.  But this year god how he sucks.

WOE-LOB.

Way to go Johnny.  Hits with RISP bad.  Walking on all fours good.  I know its not his fault but Kevin Long must go.

“For most of his Yankee career I was hiding behind cognitive dissonance and tried to pretend that Arod wasn’t unclutch despite all the unfavorable nicknames he received here and then last year he was great.”

Good example of confirmation bias.

Did Arod dump his life skills coach?  If so get him back.  Cause he sucks.  Not that any of it matters any more.

Ok, the way Yankees are giving up outs is hilarious. They show all the signs of a desperate team who do not seem to have much of a plan.

If they have their usual patient approach, they should hammer this guy. Instead, they have managed just one walk against someone who has walked almost as many as he has struck out.

They are out of confidence. Nothing else can justify this.

3 runs off a AAA pitcher. That’s above average for us, right?

I agree with the move. Moose is more important than the team at this point. Hopefully it works out.

Was that a sac fly or grounder?

The Mets weren’t serious about Posada. That was the foolishness the Yankees talked themelves into. That is no way to run a ball club in any event.

Men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs.  Chances of tying?  Taking the lead???
Probably around the same - 10%.

Goodbye Jason, goodbye.

Win it for the Moose!

Cody fucking Ransom

Xavier fucking Nady?

holy crap I didn’t see that coming. a-rod 2 for 2 in the last 2 innings in a non-blowout!

Yeah Cody and Nady.

Yeah, yeah, yeah… But in this universe, there is absolutely no freakin’ way in hell that they were going to let Posada go to the Mets.  They’d have given him 5 years at $20M per if that’s what it took.  It wasn’t a baseball decision.

Whatever kind of decision it was, it wasn’t a good one.  I can’t imagine the front office signing him just to keep him away from the Mets.  Is the cross-town rivalry that important?  Are they afraid of upsetting a portion of the fan base who would scream at losing a “true Yankee?”  If so, that’s disappointing. 

MLB is a business, pure and simple.  Teams let go of their “true players” or “face of the franchise” if he is no longer profitable, whether on the diamond or putting butts in the seats.  Boston got rid of Nomar and weathered the whining until the fans realized it was a good decision.

I like Posada, but not enough to have signed him to a long-term deal.  I guess I’m a Seinfeld-like fan: I root for the fabric.

Victory is ours! At least for tonight.

“I figure it’s gonna take 32 more victories to win this thing. Every time we in, we peel a square.”

Dear people who would not have signed Posada last offseason,

Who was going to catch?

Yatt, see my post @88.

Oh man, who killed my Lou Brown picture?