So Cano really hits in all months that begin with “A” now?

Ridiculous, all I hear is Brian Bruney sucks and is awful and can’t be trusted, and he had a GOOD August. But hey, he only succeeded in high-leverage situations. Until he shuts the door in mop-up situations, clearly he can’t be trusted.

I think Bruney’s 0.89 ERA vs. a 4.55 FIP means he’s due for a bit of a correction. 4.4 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 aren’t exactly great indicators of future success.

i agree with 2. I think Bruney is not nearly as bad as say Phil Coke.

Derek Jeter = .977 OPS. I can’t see him wanting August to end.

AJ and Joba on the other hand…

If Coke doesn’t start pitching better, he shouldn’t be on the postseason roster.

At this point I would say neither Brueny nor Coke should be trusted in a key spot.

Amazing that they had the month they had with 2/3 of the rotation combining to be below replacement level.

Yeah, you need to look at Bruney’s FIP, although I agree he’s been better than the consensus that he absolutely sucks.  A FIP of 4.55 isn’t bad for a guy who’s probably 5th on the bullpen depth chart behind Mo, Hughes, Robertson and probably Marte now.

I knew A.J. was having a rough month, but he had more than half of the team’s losses.  Didn’t know he was quite that bad.

And regarding Coke, like it or not he’s going to be on the postseason roster if the Yankees get there because of the platoon advantage he provides.

And regarding Coke, like it or not he’s going to be on the postseason roster if the Yankees get there because of the platoon advantage he provides.

Don’t you think that any advantage is vitiated by the 6 HRs he has allowed v, LH hitters?

About the bullpen, what have we learned other than Ace, Hughes, and Mo are really good? Girardi would use any of the other arms, Robertson, Coke, and Bruney, but go to Hughes or Mo when trouble starts brewing. Which is fine since it helps to win the game at hand. And probably the big three (maybe with Robertson in the mix) will be enough through the post season. But it’d be nice if someone else also stepped it up.

I still like Coke, but seeing what Marte can bring to the table is a little more important going forward.

BR are not position adjusted?

Only 3 Yankees pitchers were charged with L´s in the month, amazing.

Phil Coke frustrates me.
His BABIP is ridiculously low at .229
But his Strand Rate is also ridiculously low.
Something has to give eventually.

Could Coke’s struggles be a reason that Dunn is being called up? (according to Kepner)

I still like Coke, but seeing what Marte can bring to the table is a little more important going forward.

I would like to see the next week of high-leverage innings go to Marte and Melancon, and to a lesser extent Bruney.  And I would like them to pitch well so Girardi trusts them (and then they pitch well in the postseason).

It’s easy to say now that all we’ll need is our 3-4 top relievers in the playoffs.  However.  I am old enough to recall our last WS appearance.  We went in with 4 very strong starting pitchers that we expected to go deep into games, and really only 3 relievers trusted by the manager.  This strongly contributed to the series loss.

It is also just not true, as some posters like to say, that if the Yankees need to bring in their 6th bullpen arm then they’ve lost the game anyway.  This team’s offense can come back against anyone.  Remember all those postseason games that the Torre Yankees won after Kenny Rogers or Denny Neagle couldn’t get through the 5th inning?

Don’t you think that any advantage is vitiated by the 6 HRs he has allowed v, LH hitters?

If his true talent HR rate is 6 HRs for every 121 LHB faced, sure.  But his HR rate per fly ball rate is 14.5 % this year, which is probably high.  That should normally be in the 10-11% range.  And you also have to look at the second part of the equation, which is the fact that generally lefty batters hit worse against lefties.  So you have to factor in both halves of the platoon advantage.

I don’t trust Coke much, but he has held lefties to a .205 average and a   .231 OBP this year.  Yeah, the HRs suck, but 76.9% of the time he is getting lefties out.  I’m not sure who you would replace him with that you could count on doing any better than that.

I would like to see the next week of high-leverage innings go to Marte and Melancon, and to a lesser extent Bruney.  And I would like them to pitch well so Girardi trusts them (and then they pitch well in the postseason).

I wouldn’t mind that, but I’m resigned to the fact that Melancon ain’t going to figure much this year.

But figuring out Marte and Bruney, building up Robertson, and maybe correcting Coke are more or less what I’m hoping for. With time running out, and assuming Girardi goes with the usual relievers, I’d like to see them ready for the postseason.

That said, I’d love it if Melancon (or any other kid) straight up dominated here on out.

I was wondering whether a pitcher has ever been denied a perfect game because of an error, as opposed to just walking a few guys.

Also, was light the latest a fielder ever spoiled a perfect game?

That’s was LAST NIGHT the latest a fielder ever spoiled a perfecto?

[19]The no hitter by Sanchez of the Giants.  1 out in the eighth (a little later than Pettitte) was when the error was made.

[19] You have to go all the way back to July 10, 2009 to find one of those.

I liked this one as well:

On August 15, 1990, the Giants’ Rick Parker, batting leadoff in the seventh, reached base on a throwing error by Phillies third baseman Charlie Hayes. Parker was retired when the next batter, Dave Anderson, grounded into a double play. Terry Mulholland pitched flawlessly and faced the minimum 27—but, still, no perfect game. Hayes is thought to have redeemed himself for the fielding error by making a spectacular catch on a line drive in the ninth inning, thereby protecting Mulholland’s no-hitter.

I think Bruney is not nearly as bad as say Phil Coke.

Completely subjectively, it seems that much of the perceived difference stems from Bruney getting yanked at the first sign of not having it that day, while Coke gets left in to really screw stuff up.

FWIW, here are the MLE platoon splits for Melancon, Michael Dunn, and Edwar Ramirez if we want to consider them as possible replacements for Coke in the postseason pen.

Melancon (vs LHP: .247/.315/.444, 89 BF, vs RHP: .182/.231/.255, 117 BF)
Dunn (vs LHP: .248/.361/.317, 119 BF, vs RHP: .264/.423/.405, 189 BF)
Ramirez (vs LHP: .226/.304/.339, 69 BF, vs RHP: .233/.310/.379, 129 BF)

None appear to be better options vs. LHB.

Melancon could definitely help as a ROOGY.

Melancon could definitely help as a ROOGY.

Yeah, seems like it.  Assuming an 11 man postseason pitching staff, and these guys as locks:

C.C.
Burnett
Pettitte
Joba

Mo
Hughes
Aceves
Marte
Robertson

You’ve got two spots left.  So then you take two of Bruney, Coke, Melancon, Mitre, and Gaudin?  Like I said, I think Coke’s a lock, so then you’re down to one of the righties.  I can’t see them taking Melancon over Bruney, even if he deserves it, although I guess they could go with a 12 man staff and take both. 

That’d leave them with a bench of Gardner/Melky, Molina, Hinske, and Hairston?  Seems like that’s pretty good, especially given Swisher’s ability to play 1B and Hairston’s ability to play anywhere.  Ramiro Pena would probably be the fifth bench guy if they go with 11.

I think I’d rather have Pena than Hinske on the bench in the postseason.  Hinske’s one tool is power - and he hasn’t shown very much.  Pena at least provides defense and speed at multiple positions.

Gaudin should be in, no?

BR are not position adjusted?

No, I was lazy.  Give me a minute and I’ll post an update.

Hmm - upon further review Hinske has been hitting better than I originally thought.  Still - considering Hairston can play the OF as well as Melky/Gardner I’m not sure my position changes.

It’s pretty awesome that Jeter had the most batting runs period, not even position adjusting.

You can change your active roster between rounds.  Are the LDS schedules out yet?  If the Yanks have the best record, they get to choose between schedules, right?  If they take the series with the extra off day, they could probably get away with 10 pitchers.  Would they leave Joba off for the first round, even if they knew they weren’t going to use him?  Or do they pitch him in relief, and open that whole can of worms again?

Gardner - is he coming back or did they have to amputate his hand?  He can still pinch run in that case, no?

[27 & 28] I would assume they will bring Mitre or Gaudin, whoever pitches most effectively the next month, as an emergency longman.

If they are going to carry a 12th pitcher and it’s Bruney, I would rather have Hinske or Pena, since I don’t think Bruney will do anything except walk guys.

If the 12th pitcher were Melancon, and it means leaving Hinske or Pena off the roster, I am cool with that. Melancon could be used effectively as a ROOGY, or could do a couple innings of mop-up.

Basically, Melancon > Hinske/Pena > Bruney.

Also, I hope Dunn pitches phenomenally well and steals Coke’s spot on the post-season roster.

Derek Jeter, SS: 13.6 BRAR
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: 10.2 BRAR
Johnny Damon, LF: 10.1 BRAR
Robinson Cano, 2B: 8.9 BRAR
Mark Teixeira, 1B: 7.9 BRAR
Nick Swisher, RF: 6.3 BRAR
Jorge Posada, C: 5.6 BRAR
Jerry Hairston, 3B: 3.5 BRAR
Hideki Matsui, DH: 3.4 BRAR
Ramiro Pena, SS: 0.3 BRAR
Cody Ransom, 3B: -0.6 BRAR
Melky Cabrera, CF: -1.7 BRAR
Eric Hinske, RF: -2.1 BRAR
Jose Molina, C: -2.4 BRAR

BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level at primary position.

[27 & 28] I would assume they will bring Mitre or Gaudin, whoever pitches most effectively the next month, as an emergency longman.

I was thinking that would be Aceves.

Also, I hope Dunn pitches phenomenally well and steals Coke’s spot on the post-season roster.

Dunn’s walk rate scares the hell out of me.  He’s basically a lefty Bruney from what I can tell.

Cody Ransom, 3B: -0.6 BRAR
Melky Cabrera, CF: -1.7 BRAR
Eric Hinske, RF: -2.1 BRAR
Jose Molina, C: -2.4 BRAR

One of these four has been taken care of.  I’d like to see Melky get some time off in September.

Gardner - is he coming back or did they have to amputate his hand?

Starting rehab later this week.  Not sure if he’ll be doing it Pete Gray style.

[37 & 38] I think Aceves would be the high leverage longman, and Mitre or Gaudin would be the break glass in case of emergency longman. In case a game gets to extra innings after most or all of the pen is burnt up and its one of those “this is the last pitcher they are bringing in, win or lose” situations.

I guess they wouldn’t need that in the ALDS if they take the longer series as they would have both Aceves and Joba available for long relief.

I had no idea about Dunn’s BB rate, I am just overly concerned with Coke’s freakish ability to give up HR, and Girardi possibly using Coke in a uber-high leverage situation against a lefty rather than going with Hughes.

Yankees have totally peaked.

Starting rehab later this week.  Not sure if he’ll be doing it Pete Gray style.

He’s supposed to be hitting off a tee and soft-tossing today.  The expectation is that will go well and and he’ll start rehab later this week.  He’s reporting no pain outside of normal soreness.  He’ll be in the big leagues in 2 weeks or so.

Dunn’s walk rate scares the hell out of me.

I’ve only seen Dunn pitch once, and for 4 batters.  Three of them he was strike-one, strike-two, get an out.  The other one was a four-pitch walk.  I’ve read recently (Jennings or Abraham) that he’s improved his control recently.  But yeah, I’d like to see him do it for the first half of next year, and earn a callup (when needed) in 2010.

Dunn’s walk rate scares the hell out of me.  He’s basically a lefty Bruney from what I can tell.

I’m not comparing them in any meaningful way, but there was a RS prospect whose career mL BB/9 was only .2 lower than Dunn’s 4.0 who is now a top AL starter.

I know Mitre hasn’t gotten much love, but he could end up being a decent arm out of the pen come October.  It all depends on how well he pitches in this last month.  If his sinker is effective, he could be quite handy.

Yankees have totally peaked.

They’ve plateaued.

They’ve plateaued

Yeah, their peak is kinda link Babe Ruth’s: once they reach it, they’ll stay there for YEARS.

They’ve plateaued.

Uh oh. Well, we’re out of our ditch anyway, so game on.

Excited about that first round matchup with the Angels?

Excited about that first round matchup with the Angels?

Why wouldn’t he be?  At least two games would be at a “normal” time of night for him, and I suppose it is close enough he could give some thought to attending a game.

I knew A.J. was having a rough month, but he had more than half of the team’s losses.  Didn’t know he was quite that bad.

here are the runs scored behind AJ in his August starts:

4
2 (2 runs in 15th inning)
4 (4th run in 11th inning)
0 1
2

he obviously had 2 dismal starts in Chicago and Boston, but he still had 4 quality starts in August

The RS beat the Angels like a drum in the playoffs. There probably isn’t another team that they would prefer to face.

Could Coke’s struggles be a reason that Dunn is being called up? (according to Kepner)

Dunn is ineligible for the postseason, right?  i think it’s more to get a look for 2010.

I think they can use the 60 day DL to make Dunn elgibile if his performance warrants it.

gotcha.  i know they’d have to DL someone to put, say, Melancon on the postseason roster, but i didn’t think Dunn would be eligible since he was never on the 25 man before today.

of course, i could have just made that rule up….

he obviously had 2 dismal starts in Chicago and Boston, but he still had 4 quality starts in August

Why do you hate wins and losses being the primary indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness?

Dunn to the Yankees? What problem is that the solution to again?

The fact that the Yankees have two guys on the 60 day DL means that they can replace those guys with anyone on the 40-man roster for the playoffs.  It just has to be pitcher for pitcher or position player for position player.  Since Wang and Nady are on the 60-day, the Yanks could add one pitcher and one position player.  The replacements needn’t have even a day of 25-man roster time.

of course, i could have just made that rule up…

iirc correctly, That used to be the rule.

thanks MC.

SSF, we’re talking about Michael Dunn, LH reliever

The RS beat the Angels like a drum in the playoffs.

I do love the continuing dynamic of Sox-Yanks taking two playoff spots and leaving the Angels (who I really don’t like) left choosing between a team that has destroyed their will to live since 2004… or the Yankees. And in this case, a loaded Yankees team.

Bruney is on a short leash and gets pulled (several times now he’s been replaced by Mo, IIRC, and Mo is awesome) before he can allow the guys he’s walked to score.

I like Bruney.  I really like the narrative of the guy with control problems who rededicated himself, lost a ton of weight, and found his control.  Unfortunately, he got hurt and since his return has only intermittantly had his control.  I’m very thankful that he’s pitched very well in some close games lately, sure.  That doesn’t mean I trust him.  When I see consistent good command from him, I’ll trust him. 

Coke is tougher to figure out.  He gets outs, which is good.  He gives up HRs, which is bad.  I’d like to see more of Marte.  If Marte looks like the guy the Yankees thought they were getting, great, problem solved.  If not, I say run Coke out there and hope for the best.

SSF, we’re talking about Michael Dunn, LH reliever

Makes infinitely more sense. I’m just back from 9 days in Canada, with my iPhone off, so I’m a bit out of the loop. I can happily say though that Jays games are available nationwide, so I spent one afternoon admiring the sink on all of Clay Buchholz’s pitches.

so I spent one afternoon admiring the sink on all of Clay Buchholz’s pitches.

Amazing how one start prior that sink was, apparently, non-existent.

I’ve only seen Dunn pitch once, and for 4 batters.  Three of them he was strike-one, strike-two, get an out.  The other one was a four-pitch walk.

So, he will fit right in!

So when do these call-ups become official, anyway?  I haven’t seen anything reported besides Heyman’s tweet.

BTW, according to Abraham, Shelley Duncan is IL MVP and A-Jax is ROY.  The competition must not have been very stiff.

[65] UPDATE, 3:40 p.m.: Here are the call-ups: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Melancon and LHP MIke Dunn.

[66] Interesting!

So I guess I just needed to refresh one more time or clear my cache or something.

The real story of course, is that Girardi lied to the media again.  He said they’d be calling up two pitchers and two position players.  The nerve of that man!

Huh, the IL comprises 14 teams.

Shelley Duncan isn’t dead?

He said they’d be calling up two pitchers and two position players.

versus, per Abe yesterday: Girardi would only say that “more than two pitchers” will get called up tomorrow “and a couple” of position players.

Huh, the IL comprises 14 teams.

So?  Jackson hasn’t exactly lit it up.  Very solid for a 22 year old of course, but we spend a lot of time talking about how not ready for the show he’s looking.  If he’s deserving of the IL rookie of the year, doesn’t it stand to reason that there must not be any first year IL players who did light it up and prove that they deserve to be on a major league roster come opening day of 2010?  Hence, the competition wasn’t very stiff.

[71] There you go with your so-called “facts” again.

Did I really need to stick a smiley at the end of [68]?  Maybe this one? 

I thought the non-seriousness was pretty plain.  Sorry.

“So?”

So I thought, maybe there aren’t many teams, an ok non-injured non-callup player on a good team is going to win, there can’t by construction be many candidates; but 14 teams makes that argument work less well than say 8.  But actually I’ve just argued myself into thinking that one should expect only an ok winner.

How do you end up with a ZR 0.1 percent higher than 1?

This is nice to see. Wonder when the next 9 will come.

actually I’ve just argued myself into thinking that one should expect only an ok winner

Because a real stud would get called up to the majors too soon to put up the IL stats needed to win?

How do you end up with a ZR 0.1 percent higher than 1?

based on what i can tell by the chart, i believe the formula is: “have a shitty goatee and then get traded to the Yankees”

BTW, the Rays really need to sweep this series, don’t they?

Regarding the IL ROY competition, I asked Chad Jennings on his blog for the top three ROY finishers, but he said that the results don’t get announced.

It probably didn’t hurt AJ that despite the numbers, managers were impressed enough by him to name him the league’s best batting prospect.

“Because a real stud would get called up to the majors too soon to put up the IL stats needed to win?”

Yep.  Easy to disprove the prediction by looking at the stats of past winners.  Maybe there will be some mid-season promotions from AA that put up good rates and win, though.

“managers were impressed enough by him to name him the league’s best batting prospect”

Maybe there’s some adjustment for age going on?  I assume he wasn’t in fact the best hitter by the #s.

Course there’s position adjustment as well to turn to.

BTW, the Rays really need to sweep this series, don’t they?

yes, they do.

that would make for a great September race.

don’t think it will happen though.

Amazing how one start prior that sink was, apparently, non-existent

Kids. His command isn’t all the way there yet, but it’s coming. One hopes. Well, this one hopes.

Anyone here use Gmail?  Is it down or is it me?

Its down.

[86] Up at the moment but unusably slow.

How do you end up with a ZR 0.1 percent higher than 1?

Hinske and Swisher are just that damn good.

Actually, it’s a rounding issue.  Plays made are calculated as ZR times CH, and since ZR is only tracked to three decimal places you end up with non-integers.  When I subtracted PM and CH through July 31 from August 31 I forgot to round those down, even though I set up Excel to only display integers.  Ergo, a ZR of 1.001, which is really just a ZR of 1.

yup my gmail is down. Wierd

Gmail Fail Strikes Again article link found via google news returns:

Connection Interrupted
The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading.
The network link was interrupted while negotiating a connection. Please try again.”

I knew A.J. was having a rough month, but he had more than half of the team’s losses.  Didn’t know he was quite that bad.

that also probabily attest to the awesomeness of the rest of the team more than the suckage of AJ though