Terrific post Jon. Or have your less imaginative pals been calling you Stats boy?

Posada being healthy is a “good”.  There were lots of questions about him going into the season.  With his downside being “DH/1st base only”.

Terrific post Jon. Or have your less imaginative pals been calling you Stats boy?

Thanks so much!
And they usually just refer to me as “hey you.”

I think we’re going to see Cano hit .340-.360 this year. He’s actually gotten hotter and raised his batting average over the last week. He struggled with Edwin Jackson’s breaking ball but still managed to hang in for 22 pitches in two ABs and simply isn’t swinging at many bad pitches any more. Give a guy like him a lower K rate (9.7% this year so far) and he’s capable of putting up some sky high batting averages.

Johnny Damon has been pretty damn good too.

Jose Molina has an 89 OPS+, that’s pretty studly for him.

Shouldn’t you include the sub-replacement level 3B contributions among the bad/ugly?

Shouldn’t you include the sub-replacement level 3B contributions among the bad/ugly?

That counts as “unspeakably bad”.  Thus, we shouldn’t speak of it!

Nice review, Jon.  Maybe Pena should be included as a “good”.  He’s fielding brilliantly at 3rd base, even though SS is his position.  And, he’s actually hitting some, with an OBP of .345.  If he keeps this up, he should be the utility infielder after ARod returns, even after Ransome gets healthy.

even after Ransome gets healthy.

He’s on the 60 day DL, so Pena don’t have much to worry about for a good while. And maybe by then, depending on Nady, Cody’s right handed bat will be useful.

Its amazing how well we adjusted to playing without our start of the season 3B and CFs

There was a start of the season CF?

I know they had a guy standing in the middle of the outfield, but…

Johnny Damon has been pretty damn good too.

When it’s all said and done, it appears the Damon contract will have been a net good.  Which was not at all the consensus at the time it was signed.  OTOH, the fact that he had to be moved off CF shouldn’t be overlooked.  He was brought here to save us from Bubba Crosby, and we’re still struggling to fill the void left by good Bernie.

He will be one of the interesting decisions off the off-season.  I suspect it will come down to A-Jax’s readiness.

...or CF supply and market price relative to AJax’s rediness.

When it’s all said and done, it appears the Damon contract will have been a net good.  Which was not at all the consensus at the time it was signed.  OTOH, the fact that he had to be moved off CF shouldn’t be overlooked.  He was brought here to save us from Bubba Crosby, and we’re still struggling to fill the void left by good Bernie.

I agree 100% but we are one of the few that look at it that way.

He will be one of the interesting decisions off the off-season.  I suspect it will come down to A-Jax’s readiness.

After the Yankees wrap up this year’s WS victory, it’s gonna be an interesting off season.

When it’s all said and done, it appears the Damon contract will have been a net good.

According to FanGraphs, in the first 3 years he was $-3M.  So he needs to put up a season similar to last season.  Of course, FanGraphs doesn’t take into account that a marginal win is probably worth more to the Yankees (that is, they are willing to pay more) than other teams.  So yeah, it will probably be a wash.

He was brought here to save us from Bubba Crosby, and we’re still struggling to fill the void left by good Bernie.

Damon has been pretty good for the Yanks, I don’t think many would say he hasn’t been an overall positive. In addition to saving the Yanks from Bubba, he also has saved them from Matsui in LF.

When Xavier Nady went down with an injury, Swisher got his chance to shine, as well as send Ozzie Guillen a message.

Why did Swisher need to send a message to Guillen?  Ozzie has said that Nick’s lousy 2008 was his fault for playing him in CF and batting him in the leadoff spot.  Of course, putting Swisher in CF and hitting him first are Sabr-friendly moves, which is not what we’re supposed to expect from Ozzie in the first place, right?  See, now I’ve gone and got myself all confused about the whole thing.

I could see JD hitting 20+ HRs this year given his start and the way fly balls are flying out to right field in the NYS.

I’m also standing by my prediction that Tex will have a monster year this season.

Biggest GOOD is definitely Posada’s health.
Biggest BAD is ARod’s injury
Biggest UGLY is the Wanger.

I think we’re going to see Cano hit .340-.360 this year. He’s actually gotten hotter and raised his batting average over the last week. He struggled with Edwin Jackson’s breaking ball but still managed to hang in for 22 pitches in two ABs and simply isn’t swinging at many bad pitches any more. Give a guy like him a lower K rate (9.7% this year so far) and he’s capable of putting up some sky high batting averages.

Oh please oh please oh please oh please!

When it’s all said and done, it appears the Damon contract will have been a net good.

I’ll agree with that, despite the move off CF.  He’s a good defensive LFer and he’s hit well in 2 of 3 years (plus April of the 4th).

I will agree that Damon’s contract has been way better than I expected, and probably a “net good” as well.  But let’s not look at his contract in isolation.  He didn’t keept Matsui out of LF….he kept the Yankees from signing another corner outfielder.  Heck, if the Yankees didn’t sign Damon, just maybe Elsbury doesn’t steal home against them last week….

He didn’t keept Matsui out of LF….he kept the Yankees from signing another corner outfielder.

but you could also argue that Matsui is really the culprit, not Damon. 

Damon did play CF in 2006 and again in 2008.  and he plays LF fairly well. 

Matsui has really been the one preventing them from adding another bat.

...it’s gonna be an interesting off season.

How is that even possible? The infield is set in stone. The bullpen is already overflowing and it’s still the strong point of the farm system. With CC/AJ/Wang/Joba/Hughes the only decision I can see there is whether or not to re-up Pettitte once again as insurance.
That only leaves the OF. Swisher will still be in right. Baring a setback by Jackson he should be in center(unless Melky continues to teach us that writing off someone so young was a mistake.) LF is the only question mark for 2010. According to Cot’s here are the prospective free agent OFers for next year;

Bobby Abreu LAA
Garret Anderson ATL
Rick Ankiel STL
Rocco Baldelli BOS
Jason Bay BOS
Marlon Byrd TEX
Mike Cameron MIL
Frank Catalanotto TEX
Endy Chavez SEA
Coco Crisp * KC
Carl Crawford * TB
Johnny Damon NYY
David Dellucci CLE
Jermaine Dye * CWS
Darin Erstad HOU
Cliff Floyd SD
Ryan Freel BAL
Brian Giles SD
Ken Griffey Jr. SEA
Vladimir Guerrero LAA
Matt Holliday OAK
Geoff Jenkins * PHI
Reed Johnson CHC
Andruw Jones TEX
Austin Kearns * WAS
Hideki Matusi NYY
Jason Michaels CLE
Xavier Nady NYY
Magglio Ordonez * DET
Manny Ramirez * LAD
Dave Roberts SF
Gary Sheffield DET
Randy Winn SF

Some interesting names on the list but signing one to play LF sounds like the most boring off-season in memory.

I could see JD hitting 20+ HRs this year given his start and the way fly balls are flying out to right field in the NYS.

yeah, maybe.

but one comment (not really directed at you)...that HR Damon hit last night is likely in the upper deck of the old stadium, no?

the guy filling in for Abraham last night implied it was a NYS HR, and i’m not really seeing that at all.

Damon has been turning on those inside pitches and hitting into the porch since his days in Boston.

not every HR in the new stadium is an illusion….

Some interesting names on the list but signing one to play LF sounds like the most boring off-season in memory.

unless the one they pick is named Manny….then it will certainly be a crazy off-season.

I would love to see the 2010 Yankees go into the season w/o a “real” DH.  An OF of Holliday, AJ, and Swisher with Melky backing up all three spots or starting in CF if AJ isn’t ready.  Then, rotate the entire lineup (but especially Posada, Jeter, and Arod) into the DH spot for half days off.

Some interesting names on the list but signing one to play LF sounds like the most boring off-season in memory.

Yeah, I understand the FA class won’t be that great, but it’s interesting in the sense that it’s going to be the FO being good (not that they ain’t, but it won’t only be a matter of throwing cash at whoever is the big fish in the market) that determines the shape of the offseason.  Kinda like what the FO did with Swisher, if you know what I mean.  Just stuff that gives a clearer stamp on what the FO is doing.

the guy filling in for Abraham last night implied it was a NYS HR, and i’m not really seeing that at all.

Probably wind tunnel and all that. It landed double double digits row back but you know some folks just like to harp on the negatives.

Anyone ever see Jesus Montero before? Can he play in the OF? Because he’s going to be done with AA by the end of the year.

i think the offseason will be interesting merely to see what they do with their payroll. 

they have ~$40M coming off the books with Pettitte, Nady, Matsui and Damon.

past practice would imply throwing $20M at Holliday. 

but if the economy stays in the dumper and attendance is still meh…do they take this opportunity to get their payroll back to the $175-180M range?  it could happen.

something like $20M/2 to Rick Ankiel to play LF?  maybe a couple million to Byrd as AJax insurance/4th OFer…

don’t know.  i’d love to see Holliday, but i also thought they’d sell every single ticket this season.

An OF of Holliday, AJ, and Swisher with Melky backing up all three spots

Nice potential for an OF, but it’ll be interesting to see what Holliday does in Oakland this year. Also, let’s hope Jackson reduces that K rate. He’s currently going at about 25%.

As for Montero, as Cowboy alluded to, it’s becoming less insane to say that he’ll have an impact in the majors in 2010.

Ransom’s injury, sad to say, was a good

I’ll wait to see what kind of offensive player Holliday becomes in the next few months away from Coors. I like him and I like his defense but I don’t want to sign a 30 year old player to a big long term contract for his defense (and hope it doesn’t decline quickly) while overpaying for his offense.  Of course a lot of this depends on what he is going to get but I’m picturing a Teix sized contract simply because he is the best free agent out there next year and I don’t think I want any part of that.

Ransom’s injury, sad to say, was a good

Hey, Ransom getting hurt was the best thing that could happen to him. When A-rod came back, there was a good chance he was gone after his performance to start the season. Back to AAA, a lower paycheck, no more service time, basically a lower quality of life. Getting hurt on an MLB roster, especially with something as minor as a hamstring pull or strain or whatever, is a blessing for the guy. He’s on the roster for at least 60 more days, drawing a salary, accruing service time for his pension and getting all of his rehab flipped for by the NY Yankees. The guy hit the proverbial lottery with that injury.

Who else would be in a position to sign Holliday?  I’d mainly worry if it was Boston.

I guess the Mets might be interested.

Holliday might not be so expensive if he continues to suck it up in Oakland. Would be cool if that means we end up getting him fairly cheap when all he needed was a year to adjust away from Coors.

I would love to see the 2010 Yankees go into the season w/o a “real” DH.

I think this is important, yes.   

According to Cot’s here are the prospective free agent OFers for next year

Erstad is teh answer!  Seriously, is he not the prototype of player-who-gives-BBTN-commentators-a-boner?

Most of that list is a big meh of course.  If it weren’t more than 2 years (+ option?) at a reasonable price, I think Damon stacks up favorably against this crew.

It’s early, but Holliday is beginning to look like a creature of Coors.  I’m not sure that would be the first place to look.  Wouldn’t it be rather foolish of TB not to pick up Crawford’s option at $10m?

Isn’t Bay expected to re-up with the Sawx?

Magglio and Jermaine Dye (both born 1/28/74 incidentally) strike me as exactly the mid 30-ish banged-up types the Yankees used to pursue in free agency.  No thanks.

Nady, coming off what appears will be an injury-tainted season, might not be a bad bargain pickup. 

If they wanted Manny at all, I think they would’ve gone for him this year.

Wouldn’t it be rather foolish of TB not to pick up Crawford’s option at $10m?

I could really see them going the sign and trade route like the Yanks did with Sheff.

Most of that list is a big meh of course.  If it weren’t more than 2 years (+ option?) at a reasonable price, I think Damon stacks up favorably against this crew.

His defense has been pretty putrid this year but assuming that is just a product of SSS and he recovers they should offer Damon arbitration and see if he accepts.  After last off-season it is possible.

Barring a miraculous economic turnaround (not a P.R. recovery as trumpeted by CNBC) I think The Yankee budget is working it’s way to $150M fast.  I don’t think they will be in the running for Holiday.  If they’re about $190M now I can see them about $170M next year until about 2011, although I think they’ll be hurting a bit financially.

Endy Chavez’s clutch catch ability may offset some of ARod’s negativity-in-the-clubhouse mojo.

I meant they;d like to get to $150M if possible but I don’t think it’s happening unless they rework somee contracts which is unlikely

I’d happily take Dye or Ordonez if the market remains at the poor level it was at this year.  Dye or Ordonez on a 2 yrd deal for less than Matsui’s salary would be a great DH and can spot start in the field if need be.

RE [39] : What is the schedule for pre-arb years for Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, AJax, Montero et al? 

Probably not for a few years, but free agent moves now could severely limit their ability to resign these guys once they become eligible or lock them up long term on the cheap like the Rays did with Longoria.  This, of course, assumes that the Yanks do have a payroll ceiling…which I think they do.

I would love to see the 2010 Yankees go into the season w/o a “real” DH.

I think this is important, yes. 

more important that having Manny Ramirez as your full time DH?

try to ignore the personality and money issues, just focus on the player:

is it really more important to leave a spot open to rest your regulars than to have a super awesome bat pencilled in for 155 games a year?

i mean, it’s better to just sit Posada on the bench that day and have Manny hitting, than to DH Posada on his day off, right?

i don’t think they’ll sign Manny, just asking a philosophical question.

i would also take Magglio, but i think the problem is that his option is a vesting option that doesn’t have much chance of not vesting.  so unless he gets hurt, i think that means he’s signed for 2 more years of big money after this one.

Shouldn’t you include the sub-replacement level 3B contributions among the bad/ugly?

Eh, don’t kick a horse when its down.  Ransom was no shock.  But Pena has been doing OK so far.

Maybe Pena should be included as a “good”.  He’s fielding brilliantly at 3rd base, even though SS is his position.  And, he’s actually hitting some, with an OBP of .345.

The only reason I neglected mentioning him was SSS.  Well, that and I don’t want to jinx him.

Why did Swisher need to send a message to Guillen?  Ozzie has said that Nick’s lousy 2008 was his fault for playing him in CF and batting him in the leadoff spot.

Good points.  But sometimes guys like Guillen need the message resent to them.

Of course, putting Swisher in CF and hitting him first are Sabr-friendly moves, which is not what we’re supposed to expect from Ozzie in the first place, right?  See, now I’ve gone and got myself all confused about the whole thing.

Me too!

but one comment (not really directed at you)...that HR Damon hit last night is likely in the upper deck of the old stadium, no?
the guy filling in for Abraham last night implied it was a NYS HR, and i’m not really seeing that at all.

That was a no doubter.  It would have easily been out in the old YS.  Anyone telling you otherwise was watching a different game.

Yeah, the only possible impact of the NYS on that HR is that maybe it was a few rows deeper into the upper deck than it would’ve been across the street.  But it was definitely gone.

Anyone ever see Jesus Montero before? Can he play in the OF?

I’ve seen an at-bat or two of his in spring training.  He’s a large young man.  The scouting concensus appears to be that there is little to no chance of him being a ML catcher.  He’s apparently slow as hell.  That says to me he’d probably be an Adam Dunn type OFer.  DH or 1B would be the non-C spots for him.

The option I like?  Primary DH and backup C.

i think the problem is that his option is a vesting option that doesn’t have much chance of not vesting

Yep, yup.  He only needs something like 350 more PA this year.  But that’s only one more year of big money after this one, not two.

I think they’ll be hurting a bit financially…

For all the pissing and moaning about empty seats, they’re still drawing well over 40k per game with the highest ticket prices in MLB.  And selling plenty of bad food and $9 beers.  Besides, no matter what else happens to the economy, the new stadium will dramatically reduce their revenue sharing bill for the next several years.

Isn’t Bay expected to re-up with the Sawx?

CW says yes, but they aren’t in talks right now. So who knows? Maybe Theo will notice this post and start thinking he’d better sign the guy before he gets in another bidding war. That alone has to be worth $10 mil.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees take a shot at Bay if he doesn’t re-up with the Sox before season’s end - if for nothing else but to screw with his asking price.

Ordonez looks like the likely candidate that Cash would pursue, if any.

As for Montero, as Cowboy alluded to, it’s becoming less insane to say that he’ll have an impact in the majors in 2010.

I can see Montero starting out in AAA at the start of 2010 and then being brought up mid season.  He’s definitely not ready for a call up anytime soon, however.

Yeah, see what you mean on Magglio, now that I’ve looked at the option terms.  Dye has a mutual option at $12m.  But listening to you guys, I can see I was a little too dismissive of both of them.  If next winter’s market is anything like last winter’s (and either was on the market), they could fall to a reasonable price. 

Nevertheless, I think Damon could remain a viable option for an additional year (the offer arb. scenario), and I think many of us had been all along assuming that the sooner we were out from under the commitment to Damon the better.

“Nevertheless, I think Damon could remain a viable option for an additional year (the offer arb. scenario), and I think many of us had been all along assuming that the sooner we were out from under the commitment to Damon the better. “

If the market remains depressed, arbitration would be a big overpay.

I could see the Yankees resigning him, but not at the 10M+ number he’d likely get in arb.

Starting to rain in lower Manhattan.  Wonder if the game will be threatened.

I’ve seen an at-bat or two of his in spring training.  He’s a large young man.  The scouting concensus appears to be that there is little to no chance of him being a ML catcher.  He’s apparently slow as hell.  That says to me he’d probably be an Adam Dunn type OFer.  DH or 1B would be the non-C spots for him.

Bummer. Ah well, that bat is going to be special anywhere.

The option I like?  Primary DH and backup C.

Sounds like a good plan to me.

He’s definitely not ready for a call up anytime soon, however.

Not this year. But 2010 is pretty soon considering how old he is.

Rain scheduled all weekend, wondering what’s going to happen.  Yankee goes to Angel twice this year, but this, I think, is there only visit.  If something is fit in later in the season:

Bad: Angels are pretty down now, and no Vlad.
Good: Alex returns.

Not this year. But 2010 is pretty soon considering how old he is.

This is something of an understatement.  He would probably be the youngest player in the league at 20-21, certainly in the bottom 5.

Nice to see Dougie M. calling out Selena Roberts as to the high school steroid usage.

Eye Chart?  Link?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090430&content_id=4506510&vkey=news_mlb&fext;=.jsp&c_id=mlb

It’s sprinkling here, which I guess means monsoon out on the East Coast - will there be a game today?

They wanted “rebuts” or “disputes” or “dismisses” not “refutes”.

You know what’s strange: why a lot of MSM feature content only during the weekdays?  Like I have Baseball Today podcast, and it’s only Monday-Friday, or some of the blog content, it’s only Monday-Friday. Or especially the blogs.  Weekend advertisement revenue don’t count?  I mean, if folks got internet, they check websites over the weekend too.  And usually the weekend has the most sports activities.

Oh wellz.

It’s sprinkling here, which I guess means monsoon out on the East Coast - will there be a game today?

I’m assuming they try their best to get it in, it’s, at most, drizzling in downtown Manhattan.

The radar looks good.  After this front there’s nothing till Pittsburg coming through.

The radar looks good.  After this front there’s nothing till Pittsburg coming through.

So it’s safe for me to take 15 minutes to bike home?

So it’s safe for me to take 15 minutes to bike home?

I just did!  It was pretty light, and very pleasant, except for having no brakes, and for the way some motorists enjoy intimidating bicyclists.

Thanks for the reports.  Wouldn’t want to be stuck at work on Friday afternoon without baseball.

—-i mean, it’s better to just sit Posada on the bench that day and have Manny hitting, than to DH Posada on his day off, right?

i don’t think they’ll sign Manny, just asking a philosophical question.—-

Ok, when I originally posted my comment, I was going to add “unless there is an elite DH available”.  But (and I LOVE Manny), I don’t think it would be a good idea to add him to the 2010 lineup.

Yes, the offense would improve by having Manny DH and then just giving Posada et al more days off.  However, there are two factors working against that.  One is that the money spent on getting Manny could theoretically be used elsewhere.  So if the upgrade in offense is only marginal, then it probably wouldn’t be worth it.

Two, and probably more important in the “real world”, is the fact that star players might begin to grumble if they were asked to sit a lot.  And the media too.  In my head, I pictured the 2010 Yankees with an excellent defensive utility infielder (with no bat).  In that situation, it would be tough to justify to the media why he’s playing once a week for Jeter and once a week for Arod.  If Jeter is able to DH on those days, it might be easier to feed to the media (and Jeter himself).

And with Arod, he’s probably going to need more time off as he gets older.  But he’s also going to be chasing that home run record (and generally wanting to keep his counting stats high).

So it’s safe for me to take 15 minutes to bike home?

must… resist… derogatory comment about biking in the rain…

Hey, they sell rain fenders back there, no? As you can imagine, Seattlites have come up with a lot of rain gear, lest people just start throwing away their bikes.

“must… resist…”

Like my friend in L.A. who says, “Buses are for losers”?