Monday, April 21, 2008
April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals
So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.| Player | pAVG | pOBP | pSLG | pBR | aAVG | aOBP | aSLG | aBR | Brdiff |
| Jose Molina | .243 | .280 | .360 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .528 | 6 | 3 |
| Chad Moeller | .225 | .299 | .348 | 2 | .350 | .435 | .600 | 5 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsui | .287 | .367 | .477 | 11 | .323 | .405 | .523 | 13 | 2 |
| Melky Cabrera | .282 | .344 | .406 | 8 | .281 | .353 | .456 | 10 | 1 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | .253 | .301 | .348 | 2 | .333 | .400 | .467 | 3 | 1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | .248 | .365 | .446 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 3 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | .243 | .311 | .453 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | -1 |
| Johnny Damon | .280 | .353 | .423 | 11 | .215 | .333 | .400 | 10 | -1 |
| Bobby Abreu | .277 | .383 | .439 | 12 | .306 | .367 | .458 | 11 | -1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .300 | .406 | .574 | 16 | .308 | .357 | .551 | 14 | -1 |
| Wilson Betemit | .258 | .333 | .445 | 2 | .154 | .214 | .154 | 0 | -2 |
| Derek Jeter | .307 | .379 | .438 | 8 | .309 | .339 | .418 | 7 | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | .286 | .380 | .469 | 7 | .261 | .306 | .391 | 5 | -2 |
| Jason Giambi | .245 | .387 | .474 | 9 | .109 | .288 | .283 | 5 | -4 |
| Robinson Cano | .308 | .348 | .482 | 12 | .169 | .200 | .234 | 2 | -9 |
| Total | .280 | .362 | .453 | 107 | .265 | .331 | .425 | 93 | -13 |
pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time
There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.
God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.
For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.
Comments
It’s still early. I always figure that you have to wait until at least after Jazzfest to start wondering whether a team’s ever going to snap out of it.
It’s tad too early for me to go crazy… (it takes about 140 games or so)I think the lineup should get mack into shape.
Hank comments on Joba has caused ESPN to go crazy with “JOBA MUST STAY AS A SETUP PITCHER!!!!!” Do they have a movie deal or something if Joba becomes a closer?
Cano’s LD% is encouraging.
They’re only 1-9 away from 11 and 19….or is that 11 and 19 away from 21 and 29?
To add on to j’s post in 3, Cano’s LD% is the highest among qualifying Yankees. It’s higher than his career mark. Karma is hosing him for some reason, he’ll be fine.
Robinson’s glove will make him useful for as long as he can keep his range. The only hitter worth worrying about as far as I can tell is Giambi (well, I guess Posada too, but that’s a different sort of thing).
How bout Melky’s line huh? That’s awesome. 3 bombs so far! I knew he had it in him.
Giambi’s LD% is certainly a little more worrisome, Robbie’s line is fine so far just that he’s more one demisional in the sense that he needs to line drives to fall for singles and double to look good. and so far he’s been robbed at a amazingly ugly pace.
another funny thing i notice. the YS team OBP so far is middle of the pack, and their HR is close to front of the pack… but a funny thing…
of their 20 HR, 15 were solo shots.. and the rest? all 2 run shots, OUCH.
what’s the normal distribution rate for this? i’m fairly certain it’s not 15/5/0/0
If I’m reading and adding correctly, there have been 536 HRs in MLB so far in 2008. 302 (56%) of them have been solo shots and 166 (31%) have come with one man on. There have been 56 (10%) three-run bombs and 12 (2%) grand slams. If the Yankees HRs were distributed like the rest of the league’s, they’d have something like 11.1/6.2/2.2/0.5
That Cano LD% is encouraging. It felt like he was getting robbed, so hopefully he snaps out pretty quickly.
Hank comments on Joba has caused ESPN to go crazy with “JOBA MUST STAY AS A SETUP PITCHER!!!!!” Do they have a movie deal or something if Joba becomes a closer?
Apparently, but too bad for them there’s no there there.
HANK:
“There is no time frame, we can’t rush him back to the rotation, he has to be stretched out, you can’t just flip the switch and make him a starter. We’re going to play it by ear. I don’t think that was made clear. We’re all on board with this. This isn’t just me.”
CASH:
“We are all on the same page. We talked about this during the winter and spring training and we are working toward that because that is the (eventual plan). Right now the time and place is to help in the pen. We are all on the same page. It makes for a nice New York story, but there is not a disagreement with my boss and myself.”
This just in: sportswriters will say/write anything to make you angry so that you read/watch them on TV.
Apparently, but too bad for them there’s no there there.
I thought it was obvious from the very beginning. That it was just the media going sound byte crazy. No?
I don’t know why so many solo HR. Maybe it’s the GIDP?
It’s clearly a lack of clutchitude, brought on by ARod’s failure to high-five people.
sportswriters will say/write anything to make you angry so that you read/watch them on TV.
I would have thought that eventually folks would get angry enough to stop buying the paper, change the channel, or surf to a different web site. But I guess that’s just me.
sound byte crazy
This would apply only to the internet coverage, right?
Just to add on to my comment. According to ESPN stats, Yankee’s have 17 GDPs, which is actually below the AL average. Toronto leads the MLB with 31 GDPs, but now that F’ing Thomas is gone…
That’s my kindergarten analysis. Maybe GDP are coming at particularly bad times? Interesting, Abreu leads team with 3, and Jetes, Alex, Giambino, Molino has 2. Seems they each should have like 5 times more.
Boston is playing a lot like the Yankees in 99. They seem confident and relaxed. It’s helped that it seems like they have been playing and inordinate amount of home games. It’s also helped that the Texas club has been playing,well, like they always have.\
Rasner needs to come up to help. He’s made his case for the big club. Long man at least and if Kennedy continues to flounder, I see them shipping him down before his confidence is completely blown. The kids need to learn to throw first pitch strikes.
That Jason Lane is hot too. Maybe he should get a shot to help, but with players like Posada gumming up the lineup because they can’t do their regular jobs it’s having a ripple effect.
Time for Hank to shut up. It’s way too early to second guess Cashman’s plan. If the team totally sucks by mid summer the experiment to use Joba as a starter will find legs. In the meantime, when the offense gets going they will need someone dependable in the pen to get it to Mo.
Nice Gertie Stein, MC.
Joeln, it’s a chicken and the egg thing. I’m only the billionth person to note how relaxed teams look during winning streaks. They didn’t look that way before the streak started with Ortiz tanking.
It’s way too early to second guess Cashman’s plan.
Which is why it’s good that no one has.
Maybe GDP are coming at particularly bad times?
Seven of the twenty HRs have led off an inning. Fifteen have come with less than two out.
“Maybe GDP are coming at particularly bad times? Abreu leads team with 3, and Jetes, Alex, Giambino, Molino has 2. Seems they each should have like 5 times more.”
Jeter’s GIDP have been counting as 3 outs.
Meanwhile Rasner has an era of 0.72 in 4 AAA starts with a lifetime era+ of 107 in the majors. While I’d rahter have IPK and he should be much better in the near future I’m not convinced that it wouldn’t be better for the club and IPK’s development for them to switch places temporarily.
I don’t know about switching places temporarily, but why not have Rasner up with the big club?
but why not have Rasner up with the big club? ... as a long man?
We should try to deal Rasner+Igawa to AAAA for a setup guy and then move Joba to the rotation…if only there is a dominant setup guy who can pitch in the AL…or maybe Rasner is the next Bannister.
SG, can you handicap the Democratic primary race using batting runs?
...Rasner has an era of 0.72 in 4 AAA starts…
Kei Igawa is striking out almost a batter an inning with a K/BB of 5 and a WHIP under 1. Brett Gardner has an OPS over 1.000 and Jason Lane is hitting a home run every 11 at-bats. It’s a different game down there.
“It’s a different game down there.”
Yes, which is why we shouldn’t look at Duncan’s #s and conclude we need him back when we already have Slammin’ Morgan Ensberg.
SG, can you handicap the Democratic primary race using batting runs?
It’s a dead heat between Moeller and Molina. Either one would get my vote.
MC: I know its different down there but Rasner has shown himself to be, albeit on a small sample, a league average major league pitcher and deserves a chance to fail. Kei has had many chances.
As long as Igawa has those ugly sideburns and stupid shades on he can’t be good. Shave Igawa’s head and he’ll be dominant!
I *heart* the backup catchers.
I don’t know where else to laugh about this, but perhaps the least surprising news in the history of starting pitching is right here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3361297
Josh Beckett? Unable to pitch? You’re kidding…
I don’t know if anyone else has posted this, but I found it funny.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/yankees_bury_bernie_williams_under?utm_source=onion_rss_daily
31 - Yeah, that was amazing.
Slammin’ Morgan Ensberg.
Couldn’t you at least come up with something alliterative? Anyway, I’m admittedly biased against Ensburg for having ruined my spring vacation by letting every baseball hit to him go between his legs.
Rasner has shown himself to be, albeit on a small sample, a league average major league pitcher…
Don’t get me wrong, I do think that Rasner can be useful to the Yankees this season. But we need to remember just how small that sample is. Projecting his performance on that basis is not too different than projecting Ian Kennedy on the basis of the 19 major league innings he pitched in 2007. And a slightly more granular look at Rasner’s major league pitching record gives reason for concern. Not counting the game where he got hurt in the first inning, he’s made nine big league starts. He didn’t make it out of the third inning in two of them, didn’t make it out of the fourth in two others, and didn’t make it out of the fifth in three more. The other two were quality starts, but he only went six in each of those, and gave up three earned runs in one of them. Igawa actually has just as many quality starts as Rasner. Rasner has had another three decent starts (5+ IP with <= 3 ER), but Igawa’s had four of those. So while I agree that he deserves a shot, I’d stop well short of saying that he’s proven anything just yet.
Shave Igawa’s head and he’ll be dominant!
Is there some kind of reverse-Sampson legend in Japanese culture that I missed? That would be pretty cool. Have there been any great bald Japanese players?
nah, all Kei needs is a bag of marbles
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