“The Yankees’ schedule is harder than Boston’s over the rest of the season”
By what standard?
We have Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore. One .500 team, and a two clowns.
They have Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Minnesota.  A clown (who will start Kazmir) and two angry .500 teams.

If Minnesota was so angry, why couldn’t they beat Detroit even once on their home field with Santana and Scott Baker pitching two of the three games?  I’d say if the Yanks can take 3 of 4 from the Jays, they have a chance at the division.  The Sox, if they can beat Kazmir (he doesn’t always beat them 1-0 and won’t pitch all nine innings) will most likely sweep and their offense may even stir a bit.  In any event, I’m just happy the Yanks are a near lock for the playoffs.

By what standard?

That whole home/road thing that you’re ignoring.

That’s why they’re angry, IE. Besides, how could the Yankees be a tough team if they let TB take 2 of three at the Stadium? Obviously the Yanks are an awful team and will be an easy beat for every team facing them the rest of the way… one series isn’t important in overall quality of a team.  And the BoSox’s offense isn’t slumping, it’s all on the bench besides Ortiz and Lowell.

FWIW, here’s what Log5 says about the remaining schedules for both teams:

Yankees should go 6-4 and finish at 94-68.
Red Sox should go 6-3 and finish at 96-66.

Tampa Bay and Baltimore still suck REALLY big. It doesn’t matter where we play them.

It doesn’t matter where we play them.

Actually, it does.  No matter how bad a team is, they are better at home, and no matter how good a team is, they are worse on the road.

Skip Bayless says “The Red Sox NEED the Yankees to win the Division”
ESPN pays him money to say things like that. MONEY!

To change the subject a bit, I believe IPK would make a better playoff long man than Hughes given the latter’s troubles in early innings.  I bring this up because John Sterling (I realize the man knows nothing, but even so) seemed to think Hughes would get the nod.  In any event, I’m curious to see how Kennedy does pitching against the Jays for his second consecutive start.

It doesn’t matter how “tougher” they’re at home, they still suck at home. Losing record there and everything. Would it be easier if these games at home for us? Yeah, probably. Does that make our schedule tougher than the BoSox schedule? Of course not.

Tampa Bay and Baltimore still suck REALLY big

It’s worth noting, that however much they suck, we’re still 7-8 against Baltimore and 8-7 against TB. Though I think, having mailed it in already, we’ll do better against those two teams. It’s Toronto and that pitching I’m worried about.

But not really “worried,” since at least the Wild Card is virtual lock.

Toronto could be really tough if you just focus on their pitching… BUT their offensive isn’t much to look at without Troy Glaus (grand slam last time not withstanding). Besides Gibbons insisting that every starter go 8 innings must catch up some point this season, right? Still, I’ll feel betteer when we move on to the cupcakes.

wow, when did posters start trusting their guts more than stats?

The one advantage the Yankees have right now is they seem to be playing better than Boston.  Other than that, I don’t really see an advantage or non-advantage in their remaining schedules.

Boston - 6 Home, 3 Road, Opponent Winning Pct. : .462
Yankees - 4 Home, 6 Road, Opponent Winning Pct. : .448

We get to play the best team of the bunch (having just swept Boston), but at home.  It seems a wash to me, though I still think we have a pretty good chance of finishing with the same record and winning with the tiebreaker.

What if we were to do Log5 method on each team’s wpct since the AS break?  What would that look like?  The Yankees are clearly a better team now than they were pre-AS, and probably “better” (I quote because I know a team is only as good as its record) than their overall record.  Boston has not been as good post-AS than pre.  Just curious if that would change things at all.  Probably not by more than 2 games (maybe 1 extra win for Yanks and 1 more loss for Sox).  But then, they would be tied.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the Yanks to win half the games against Toronto and five of six against Tampa and Baltimore.  On the other hand, if the Yanks clinch the WC, Torre would be well within his rights to play some lineups featuring Alberto Gonzales and Bronson Sardinha et al.

“wow, when did posters start trusting their guts more than stats?”

Well, honestly, is there one stat in the world that said the Yanks would be down 1.5 right now?  Granted, I don’t know of one gut either, but still….

First time posting here.  A couple of points not made.  The Red Sox are playing without Manny, Youk. and Okajima. Ortiz has a bum knee that doesn’t respond well to playing on turf.  They are coming off a 3 game sweep by Toronto on the turf where Ortiz was 1-10.  Sox face Haren, Santana and Kazmir during this stretch.  Their starting pitching outside of Beckett is questionable.  They lost to Kazmir last week and came from behind late twice.  Ortiz carried them in those two tampa games.  All of this smells ripe for sub .500 ball down the stretch. If they were smart they would concede the division and rest for the playoffs.

How is Ortiz “playing” on turf when he’s the DH?  Does running out ground balls really take that much out of the guy?

Turf is an awful substance, especially if you have bad knees. Running at any point would be dangerous for Ortiz. Hell, a home run trot could take him out for the playoffs.

It just hit me watching the highlights from last night: at no moment, not even the 9th, was I worried about the Yankees losing that game. They’re were up only one run (games they’ve been awful in) and against the O’s (who we’ve been league average) and I wasn’t worried at all. This team is out and out scary.

Can’t log into the administrative side of the site from work, but…GCL Top 20 Prospect List is out, and Jesus Montero was 2nd and Jairo Heredia 17th. Relevant links are as follows:

(If SG, RB, Jonathan, anyone, wants to put an entry so people can discuss this, go right ahead, I won’t be home for a while)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264872.html

Turf is an awful substance, especially if you have bad knees. Running at any point would be dangerous for Ortiz.

First of all, the batting box is dirt. Second, running out a ground ball on turf is no worse for his knees than walking on a treadmill for a few minutes. Though, by the looks of him, he doesn’t do too much of that. If I’m the Red Sox, it may not really matter, but would they want to be known as the only team ever to lose a 14.5 game lead? I wouldn’t concede anything.

Re: Montero. Nice that BA gave him some recognition after being pretty tough on him coming into the season with all the talk of him being an unathletic, all-or-nothing DH. He’ll still probably end up as a 1B or DH, but that 1B thing has been an itch that could use scratching for a while now.

With Heredia, until our Dominican imports start performing better than Abel Gomez, Angel Reyes and Hairo Heredia in full season ball, I’m not getting my hopes up. But scouting reports are positive and he supposedly has control.

After the 1 pm Monday game against Toronto, the Yankees have to jump on a plane and fly to TB.  Then, after TB, they have to fly to Baltimore.  It’s not only that they end the season on the road, it’s that they end with 10 straight games, while the Redsox get a day off.

Considering that Torre will want to rest Mo and the Joba rules, there’s going to be a close game or two in those 10 that will left for Viz or Farnsworth.

Kronic, you may be forgetting how sparingly Joe uses Mariano on the road.  No tie games, never when the Yanks are behind.

I had a nightmare last night that Farnsworth was brought into the 8th inning of a playoff game with a 3-run lead and proceeded to blow it.  That was the scariest dream I’ve ever had.

Indeed.  Torre is going to be very careful with Mariano from here on out - even more so once the Yanks clinch the WC.  I hope he does the same with Jorge.  In the end, playing ten straight games won’t really matter because all the regulars will get a day or two off during that period - except perhaps Doug Mientkiewicz.

I concur with SG that the Toronto pitching make this an uncomfortable weekend. Carlos Pena alone makes the time in Tampa scary as well. I really can’t say with any confidence what will happen. The Yanks have far exceeded my expectations the past 10 days, so I am content to wait and see.
I was scared with Rivera’s command last night. It seems he has been struggling since that ball hit him in Boston. He sure looked dominant in the Friday win at Boston. Let’s hope he is ok and starts missing some bats.
It is and has been my hope all season that the Yanks become relevant in the pennant race- and they have succeeded. September has been great. I do get a little depressed that the season is nearing the end and the past several years have shown how abruptly things can really end in the post season.
This year it is looking like the Yanks will once again be a tournament team so to speak and that is an enormous accomplishment not to be taken lightly. It also means A-rod will be more open to staying put in my opinion, which will firm up the team for several years to come.  As to success in the postseason, I say lets just wait and see. Obviously, the Angels for some reason have owned the Yanks, pretty much even during the regular season, however the Tribe is playing very well at this point too. The national media emphasis on the Red Sox/Yankees and our own focus there to some degree distracts many to the quality of the other teams. Those teams I believe feed off of that, (being ignored) which I think gives them their own advantage and determination to win.
Unlike recent years, my hopes are not overly high for sucess this year in the postseason. I am extremely greatful for the Yankees to even having gained entrance. It should be interesting to say the least.

—Kronic, you may be forgetting how sparingly Joe uses Mariano on the road.  No tie games, never when the Yanks are behind.—

No, add that to the list of why playing on the road is “tougher” than playing at home.  b/c the game is managed differently as well.

—I was scared with Rivera’s command last night. It seems he has been struggling since that ball hit him in Boston.—

Between last night and the sunday night game against Boston, it seemed like the catchers (can’t remember if Posado or Molina was in the game) weren’t really acknowledging Mo’s lack of command.  When Mo would get ahead in the count, the catchers were calling for “wasted” pitches either up high or too far away.  Then, when it got 2-2 or 3-2, Mo couldn’t find the strikezone.

It was really troubling to watch.  When his command isn’t perfect, Mo can still be effective just by throwing it over and hoping the movement is enough.

...at no moment, not even the 9th, was I worried about the Yankees losing that game.

Wish I could say the same sleepyirv.  I was pretty tense.  I’m a tad worried about Mariano and the way he’s labored the last 2 outings.  He’s been doing the Wetteland/Jose Mesa bend-but-not-break routine, as opposed to mo-ing them down.

Granted he mighta got squeezed on the 2-2 to Hernandez, but I wonder—in response to kronic’s point—if Jorge was calling for waste pitches because Mo didn’t seem to have the stuff to put them away on pitches that had more of the plate (anyone know what the gun was saying?).  Huff had 2 really good hacks that went foul—one rocket that he pulled and another to the left side.

I bring this up because John Sterling (I realize the man knows nothing, but even so) seemed to think Hughes would get the nod.

Well, Sterling does get to talk to Torre and Cashman.  So even though he knows noting, he may know something.

The Red Sox are playing without Manny, Youk. and Okajima.

Okajima has been shelved for sucking.  Yankee fans should wish for his quick return to high leverage situations.

Its not the substance turf that is the problem.  Its whats under the turf and the whole playing field.  Its concrete.  If you have bad knees you would know the difference between running in the park and running up the sidewalk.  Ortiz may not play the field but he certain will be running, turning, cutting, crouching ect. The problem is with the cartilage in his knee.  Thats the padding that absorbs shock.

I was scared with Rivera’s command last night.

It seemed like last night Rivera might have been pitching around the veteran hitters in Baltimore’s lineup who’ve given him trouble in the past, knowing that he could get the lefty Moore out.  Granted, even with this theory, his command/control did seem a little off.

As for Boston, their slide seems to have coincided with some key injuries, much in the same way the Yankees’ slow start involved injuries.  Manny has been out, Ortiz with the bad knee, Youkilis… and Okajima is now out with a tired arm.  It also seems like Matsuzaka and Papelbon might have tired arms, as well, just judging by their recent performance.  So they’ll be very dangerous if they can rest up and get healthy for the playoffs.

As for Pettitte, was there a better off-season pitching bargain?  Lilly?  Meche?  I’ll take Pettitte’s performance for $16M on a one-year-plus-option deal over the 4 for $40M it took to sign Lilly or the 5 for $55M it took to sign Meche.  Cashman deserves a lot of credit for this signing.  And as I say every time his name comes up here, I think that Pettitte has become UNDERrated over the past three years.  He was a CY Young candidate in ‘05, had a poor first half in ‘06, and has basically been excellent since.  So, excellence in 5 out of 6 of his most recent “halves” of baseball.

Are there any LH starters the Yankees are likely to face in the first round aside from Sabbathia - assuming they make it? They really looked inept last night at times against Burres. Not to lay it all on A-Rod, who’s had an MVP caliber season, but when he gets in a slump he really looks lost.

Ortiz may not play the field but he certain will be running, turning, cutting, crouching ect.

Not so much when he’s 1 for 10.

The one advantage the Yankees have right now is they seem to be playing better than Boston.

This is like saying the housing market seems to be down a tad. TokyoJ, you’re too kind!

The following people on the Red Sox suck right now, which is why the team is in full-meltdown: Timlin, Gagne (after whom this list should be named), Papelbon, Okajima, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Ortiz (hurt), Ramirez (hurt), Youkilis (hurt), Crisp, Hinske, and Varitek. I’m tempted to add Delcarmen, who’s been giving up some pretty loud outs lately, but we’ll hold off for now. I can think of a handful of situations where a loud out would have the division sewn up right now.

Bottom line: our September = your April/May. There’s plenty of precedent for guys sucking in September and kicking ass in October, so if all or most of the above turn things around, fine. Hell, sometimes it’s a good thing: you wouldn’t want A-Rod on one of his patented tears in late September, would you? If his past tendencies are an indication, he’ll be due for one by the first week of October, and it’ll be world series or bust if he does.

I like Pettitte, he’s a real bulldog on the mound. One of the few Yankees I will openly, grudgingly respect. Clutch hitting may be something of a myth, but I think there is such a thing as a money pitcher. Clemens? meh. Schilling? yup. Pettitte? Definitely.

1 of 11, actually.  With a walk and six strikeouts.  Half of his PA in the series, all he had to do on the turf was walk to the plate and walk back.  If he’d been on base four times in the first game and then limped through the next two, you might have a point.

Ignoring which one’s actually better, if you had to pick Ian or Phil for a playoff spot (and why would you?), I’d take Phil, because he needs the innings more.

Whoops, wanted to put this comment here, not… there.

John, who doesn’t look lost when slumping?  Hideki Matsui, who has recently emerged from a rather long swoon, looked absolutely awful.  A-Rod will be fine.  The key for him in the playoffs, in my opinion, will be taking what teams give him.  If he gets nothing to hit, like in 2005, he should just take the walks and hand the baton off to the next guy.

Adrenaline, why?

I haven’t seen Kennedy pitch so I have no opinion. Just think it bears elaboration.

It seemed like last night Rivera might have been pitching around the veteran hitters in Baltimore’s lineup

Not sure I buy that, SAS.  Or if it is true, it’s disturbing.  Because it means he didn’t have the confidence in his stuff to go after the mighty Aubrey Huff and instead preferred to load the bases.

Mo hasn’t had a 1-2-3 inning since Sept. 7 in Kansas City.  And by my count, he’s had 18 appearances (out of 63 total) in which he’s allowed 2 baserunners or more.  Just saying—he’s now a top 8 closer instead of a top 3 closer.  Which is still pretty damn good but not airtight lockdown dominant the way he’s been in the past.

SSF, Kennedy can keep pitching, although he’s around his limit.  Hughes lost all that time and now won’t come close to the innings they wanted him to pitch this year, so it makes sense to give him more work before the offseason.

OK, good enough. Lately their results have been reasonably similar. Also Hughes is still their favorite prospect, right? Or has Joba taken over? In any event, getting Hughes some October experience is probably useful.

I’ve said this a few times before, but I think now that we’re at the end-ish of the season, it’s worth posting:

Rivera, since being destroyed by Boston on 4/27:

2-2, 30 saves, 1.93 ERA, 60.2 IP, 9.19 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, 3 HR

Ignoring which one’s actually better, if you had to pick Ian or Phil for a playoff spot (and why would you?), I’d take Phil, because he needs the innings more.

uhh, i’m pretty sure i’d go with the guy that i thought would give us the best chance to win the game.  that reasoning is crazy, sorry.

also, remember you can switch them up between playoff series should the Yankees be lucky enough to advance.

re: mariano, the hit to Markakis was a total bloop.  nothing to worry about at all.  once there was a man on second, it made sense to pitch for the K, so he was staying away.  even a seeing eye single ties the game and blows Pettitte’s 200th win, something he said he really wanted to save.  he was nibbling a little, but the double was luck, nothing more.

SSF, I would say that Joba has taken over as the most prized of the Yanks’ young pitchers.  This is the case because a) he is taking the major leagues by storm and b) throws 100 mph.  He has also shown quite a lot of poise - something that should never be taken for granted in New York.

IE, understandable, though more because of (B) than (A). A is a pretty small sample. Not that it has prevented me from writing in Clay Buchholz for Cy Young next year…

I was just taking a look at what needs to be done to set the rotation for the postseason, and was surprised to find that it’s fairly easy (which, I assume, was planned).  If the team sticks with the same 5 starters it used in the last turn through the rotation, we will have:

9/21 Wang vs Toronto
9/22 Clemens vs Toronto
9/23 Hughes vs Toronto
9/24 Mussina vs Toronto
9/25 Petite (Kennedy?) at Tampa Bay
9/26 Wang at Tampa Bay
9/27 Clemens at Tampa Bay
9/28 Hughes at Baltimore
9/29 Mussina at Baltimore
9/30 Petite (Kennedy?) at Baltimore

Setting things for Petite to start game 1 of the ALDS is just a question of giving Ian Kennedy either of Petite’s next two starts (and pitching Petite the next day, pushing everyone back in sequence). 

That makes me wonder what will happen if the division is tied on 9/30.  Will Petite pitch the last game against Baltimore?  I’m guessing no, but it’s hard to be sure.  Trying for the division by not resting Mo that much (risking that he could be tired in the ALDS) is something one can fall into.  Pitching Petite in that start against Baltimore would require a conscious choice, and seems to run against the grain.

uhh, i’m pretty sure i’d go with the guy that i thought would give us the best chance to win the game.  that reasoning is crazy, sorry.

Yeah… and I said what I said assuming one isn’t clearly far superior when you have to choose.  Hence the ignoring thing.  Anyway, right now they’re pitching about the same.  Kennedy’s gone deeper, but they’re not starting, so that doesn’t really matter.  They’d probably have roster spots for both anyway, unless they want to carry a gigantic bench for no reason.  The only time you’d use them is extra innings and blowouts.

Yeah… and I said what I said assuming one isn’t clearly far superior when you have to choose.  Hence the ignoring thing.

you’re right, you did.  i misunderstood.

i still don’t think that would factor much at all into the decision, but it’s an interesting angle.

my bad.

The plan was for Wang to pitch game three b/c he’s better at home.  If the Yankees win the division, then he’ll most likely get bumped up to either game 1 or 2.  My guess would be 1, with Pettitte pitching game 2.

Winning the division doesn’t mean home field advantage in the first round.  It’s very likely that both the angels and indians end up with better records than the AL east winner, unless Boston somehow turns it around.

The plan was for Wang to pitch game three b/c he’s better at home.

Whose plan?  As far as I know, nobody with the Yankees ever said that, just Mike and the Mad Dog.

sup