I don’t think they’re a bad team (e.g., Seattle), but they are mediocre for the money being spent. And I’m less than confident that the offense/defense will be all that improved next season.

The defense could be better next year.  Replace Giambi and Abreu with average defenders and they would have been average this year.  Jeter will probably give back some of his defensive value, but Cano should get some of his back.  Swapping Molina for Posada won’t help, and I have no idea who’ll be manning center so it’s tough to really know for sure.

But I’ll write about this more next week.

Here’s an early hint for some people out there though, you can’t blame any one individual player, especially the best one on the team.

well, you can.  as long you pick the right one.  focus your eyes on A-Rod….and then move them 2 spots to the right.

i’m still a fan, but if you are looking for the biggest reason for the gap between expected and actual, there’s your guy.

you can’t blame any one individual player, especially the best one on the team.

Who’s blaming Mariano?

i’m still a fan, but if you are looking for the biggest reason for the gap between expected and actual, there’s your guy.

Actually, move them behind the plate.

Who’s blaming Mariano?

Mo is not a player.  He’s a deity.

Actually, move them behind the plate.

well yeah, that too.

but i can’t “blame” Posada for getting hurt.  i can blame Cano for sucking donkeys.

Mo is not a player.  He’s a deity.

Good point.

They’ve got a shot at 90 wins, that’s something to root for. It’s hard to call a 90 win team a disappointment, especially in the AL East. They’re probably the fourth best team in the Majors.

Earlier this week <U>THT</U>, in their bizarre dartboard thingy, ranked the Yankees 6th in the majors, saying something to the effect that they only slid a little back from last season and deserved to made the playoffs if it weren’t for their division.  That’s pretty impressive for what a lot of us recognized as a quasi-rebuilding year from that start, and considering the injuries.

I hope they loose 5 straight. That way we can finish 4th.

but i can’t “blame” Posada for getting hurt.

I can’t blame the guy either, but you can blame the front office for pinning their success on a 36/7 year old catcher *and* multiple post-32 guys.  The baseball decline years suck, but they have to be prepared for.  I don’t think that Cashman adequately prepared for them.  They had an old core and one good young player.  The old core, predictably, had some injuries and set-backs and, unpredictably, the good young player had a terrible year.

I don’t think Giambi is that bad defensively at first relative to other first basemen.  Abreu was outright terrible, but they’re going to lose his (declining) offense and gain defensively with a Nady replacement - while how all that ultimately shakes out is guesswork, I don’t think Nady will come close to a 120 OPS+.

I am pretty excited about the pitching staff, though.  Regardless of the myriad off-season articles about keeping Joba in the pen that will be forthcoming.

Considering the injuries to Wang and Posada and the fact that the team got flat-zero from IPK and Hughes, their final record is pretty respectable. 

Their bullpen was a pleasant surprise this year (which is a credit to Girardi). 

I think the big question this off season is whether the Yanks try to move Cano for a CFer.

I think the big question this off season is whether the Yanks try to move Cano for a CFer.

Haven’t we been through this?  Why do people insist on patching one hole just to make another, harder-to-fill, one?

I hope they lose 5 straight. That way we can finish 4th.

That’s an odd thing to desire.

I can’t blame the guy either, but you can blame the front office for pinning their success on a 36/7 year old catcher *and* multiple post-32 guys. The baseball decline years suck, but they have to be prepared for.

I know this is going to be the popular tag line for the off season, but it is not accurate. You can point to two old players who have let this team down. Matsui, whose contribution wasn’t all that special in the first place, and Posada, who is a big loss. That hurts, but that did not sink the season. The reason the Yanks were not as good as hoped is because the under 30 crowd, including Hughes, Cano, Melky, Betemit, Wang, and Kennedy underperformed their projections by a mile. Replicate everything else that has happened, plug in the young guys projection numbers and you have a team that is as good as the Red Sox, Rays and Angels. The old guys on this team (Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Mo, Moose, Giambi) did fine.

Trading Cano for Kemp could be a good idea beacuse we can sign Ellis to play second. Altough I think Kemp is a better player than Cano, I don’t want to give up Cano or overpay for a CF because I hope Austin Jackson can fill that hole in 2010.

Keep in mind that if we want A-Jackson to play CF for the Yankees in 2010 it is likely that we’ll se Melky or Gardner everyday in 2009, and that’s not good.

Trading Cano for Kemp could be a good idea beacuse we can sign Ellis to play second.

Kemp’s been disappointing this year.  I’m not so sure he’s better than Cano once you adjust for position.  Ellis has a pretty significant injury and will be 32.  I’m not sure how much longer he’s going to be a good player.

Plus you don’t trade a player when he’s coming off a horrible year, especially when he’s young and likely to rebound.  It’s the very definition of selling low, and it’s short-sighted.

Keep in mind that if we want A-Jackson to play CF for the Yankees in 2010 it is likely that we’ll se Melky or Gardner everyday in 2009, and that’s not good.

Or you take the defensive hit and put Damon in CF 70% of the time, and use Melky and Gardner to keep him fresh.  Not ideal, but focusing all your energy into 2009 when you are still developing Hughes, Joba and maybe Kennedy is not necessarily the optimal way to plan for the future either.

And I’d love to hear your rationale for wanting the Yankees to finish in fourth place.  It wouldn’t protect their draft pick, so what sense does that make?

The only time it makes sense to sell low is when you are simultaneously buying low.  Rogers for Brosius worked out well for both teams.

And I’d love to hear your rationale for wanting the Yankees to finish in fourth place

At least we’ll pick before the Blue Jays and could pick before the Twins. But maybe I’m wrong.

Or you take the defensive hit and put Damon in CF 70% of the time, and use Melky and Gardner to keep him fresh.

Then you have to sign a LF and just imagine an OF defense of Burrel, Manny or Dunn in LF, Damon and Nady, it will be horrible. I rather have Damon, Melky or Gardner and Nady, I guess that could be a very good OF defense and will come very cheap without blocking Jackson.

I feel like Damon, Melky/Gardner, and Nady in the outfield should be plan B, but a fairly acceptable plan B and you only go with something else if it truly makes sense, not just for 2009, but for future years as well.

At least we’ll pick before the Blue Jays and could pick before the Twins. But maybe I’m wrong.

This would make sense if you assume the Yankees aren’t signing a single Type A free agent, but the odds of that happening are slim and none.

Then you have to sign a LF and just imagine an OF defense of Burrel, Manny or Dunn in LF, Damon and Nady, it will be horrible.

Burrell’s not that bad defensively, although I’m not sure I’d sign him.  I wouldn’t touch Manny or Dunn.  Maybe they sign Juan Rivera as a stopgap for a year or something, and go for Carl Crawford or Matt Holliday in 2010.

SG, I’m curious as to what sort of numbers would Gardner have to put up (offense and defense) in order to justify his existence in an everyday lineup as the CFer?

I know this is going to be the popular tag line for the off season, but it is not accurate.

Exactly.  I also think it is pretty clear that Cashman *expected* this year to be rough, because he knew that he was thin at position-players in the upper-minors.  He didn’t want to sell the farm for an older-team that he knew would have problems, when he could instead build for 2009 and beyond.

And I’d like to know where all these under-32 position players were going to come from?  Shelley they hoped would be able to play some 1B and OF and mash lefties; he couldn’t do that.  I think Cervelli they hoped would be in AAA sometime this year and ready to provide some depth but he got hurt in ST.  Other than that you have Gardner, and the jury’s still out if he is AAAA, a 4th OF, or can be a starter; but in no way did anyone expect him to be ready to contribute big time #‘s this year.  After that there wasn’t anyone in the org who had played more than a handful of games above A+.  And it wasn’t like they were going to trade OLDER players (with NTC’s) for young, ML ready talent.

And finally, for having a good enough bench…most teams that have benches with guys ready to take over as starters (I’d hazard) either the bench players are young guys who project as starters in a year or two, or veterans who have just been supplanted by those younger guys.  Veterans who can still start don’t want to sign to be backups, because usually SOMEONE will give them a starter’s spot.  Teams that have these guys available for trade ask for prospects (until mid-season where the rules start to change), which the Yankees didn’t have to trade.

Anyway, 2008 was ALWAYS going to be tough.  Still hard to swallow, but going into the season it seems most people here realized they may not make the playoffs this year and were okay with that.  Interesting that now that they’ve missed, suddenly the off-season plan was flawed, heads must roll, etc.  Perhaps it is just that the nay-sayers in March are louder now.

Burrell’s not that bad defensively, although I’m not sure I’d sign him.  I wouldn’t touch Manny or Dunn.

Burrell I think is based on the contract; a three year deal at his age isn’t bad.  But if it will take 5 or more I think I’d stay away too.  Dunn would suck for a year in LF, BUT a DH slot is possibly opening up in 2010 when Matsui is gone.  Dunn would be okay if he’s the DH, *can* play LF, and can play 1B as well.  There are concerns about if Posada needs DH/1B, but perhaps they’ll have some more information on his recovery by early November?  Dunn probably wouldn’t be bad at 1B if they can’t sign Tex either.  Manny…to play LF no (other than as a 4th OFer).  But if they get rid of Giambi (or he’s a 1-year deal to hold the fort at 1B), trade Matsui, and Posada is OK, I’d be very happy having him as the DH.  Lots of unknowns there, though.

Perhaps it is just that the nay-sayers in March are louder now.

I think this is true.  I’m pretty sure most of us who had realized this was going to be a tough year and were OK with it are still OK with it.  I know I am, even though it’s obviously disappointing how the year went.

The reason I can’t blame the FO for not hedging Posada, or for giving him the contract, is that there weren’t many better options out there, especially at catcher. I don’t know, there were mistakes made, but not ones that are simple to parse and lay blame.

Just like everything else.

SG, I’m curious as to what sort of numbers would Gardner have to put up (offense and defense) in order to justify his existence in an everyday lineup as the CFer?

Let’s see.

Right now I’d project him to hit .247/.323/.317 next season.  Over 650 PA, that line would be worth 60 batting runs over 650 PAs.  The average CF has hit around .270/.335/.421 over the last four seasons, which is a line worth 82 batting runs.  If we add in Gardner’s projected steals (32 SB, 7 CS) he moves up to 66 batting runs.  So you’re looking at a 16 run offensive deficit between Gardner and the average CF, which is right around replacement level. 

He probably gets another couple of runs on non SB baserunning, although probably not more than 3-5.

If he’s a +10 defender, then he’d be a hair below average. According to zone rating, there have been 43 CF seasons where a player saved more than 10 runs in a season, so that may be a little optimistic.

One thing to keep in mind with Gardner, he’s the type of player who we may not be able to project with the standard models, because his skillset is so different from the majority of players that the models are designed for.  There’s a very good chance his MLEs are basically useless, but this is what an objective look at him says.

Incidentally, with his projected SB, Gardner would have to hit around .283/.365/.371 to be about average offensively in CF.

Maybe they sign Juan Rivera as a stopgap for a year or something, and go for Carl Crawford or Matt Holliday in 2010.

I like this idea.

If we add in Gardner’s projected steals (32 SB, 7 CS) he moves up to 66 batting runs

Gardner needs to blow 32 SB out of the water, and from the looks of it, he certainly could.

Four simple letters:

RISP

Up and down the line-up, guys just did not perform well when opposing pitchers had to bear down.  When your team is 3rd in getting men on base, but eighth in runs scored, that is the culprit.  With the pitching we got, a few more hits here and there would have made the difference.

OTOH, I am excited to see a full season of guys like Coke, Bruney, Veras, maybe even Edwar in the bullpen again, with Joba helping out early in the season, as well as a full season of Wang to stop losing streaks.

Manny…to play LF no ...I’d be very happy having him as the DH.

I would too, but he’s going to be looking for 3-4 years and a ton of money.  I don’t think he’s worth that investment as just a DH.

If the Yankees are going to sell low on anybody, it should be Melky.  Maybe in a challenge trade for a right-handed hitting CF to platoon with Gardner while you wait for Jackson to be ready.

Gardner would have to hit around .283/.365/.371 to be about average offensively in CF.

I think .283/.391/.345 is more likely.  Not that I think either one is going to happen.

If he’s a +10 defender, then he’d be a hair below average. According to zone rating, there have been 43 CF seasons where a player saved more than 10 runs in a season, so that may be a little optimistic.

That of course isn’t taking into account his arm, correct?  Is that projectable at all?  I imagine from what I’ve seen in NY and in Scranton he would be a little above average (using he system HBT does) for CF, maybe another run or two?  Doesn’t change much I guess…

Incidentally, with his projected SB, Gardner would have to hit around .283/.365/.371 to be about average offensively in CF.

Ah, but if he gets on base 20 more times he’ll also steal more bases!  So he’ll probably *only* need to hit .280/.360/.365 to be average!

I think the big thing with whether or not Gardner should be starting in CF next year depends on what else the Yankees do.  If they upgrade 1B (or OF, since Nady would probably do the other) and DH significantly, they can probably live with replacement-level offense in CF; especially if they sign any FB pitchers.

Gardner needs to blow 32 SB out of the water, and from the looks of it, he certainly could.

Define “blow it out of the water.”  Double it?  More than double it?  I’m not sure he’ll get on base enough to even reach it.

BTW, for your reading pleasure:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

It’s going to be interesting if the FO consider Matsui in their 2009 plans. Because if they don’t count him, we can sign a DH like Manny or Dunn. But if they count on Matsui, what I think it will be a mistake given his health status, they can’t sign a DH.

Ah, but if he gets on base 20 more times he’ll also steal more bases!  So he’ll probably *only* need to hit .280/.360/.365 to be average!

Actually, I scaled his SB upwards to go with his higher AVG/OBP so that’s already accounted for.

Define “blow it out of the water.” Double it?  More than double it?  I’m not sure he’ll get on base enough to even reach it.

This may sound silly, but stepping away from it, is there a reason that Gardner shouldn’t try to steal 2B all the time? Obviously there are certain situations where trying to steal would be unwise, but shouldn’t he be running at least 65-75% of the time he’s on base? I realize that’s a ridiculous number of SB’s, but if a guy with Gardners’ speed can’t steal 80-90 bases, who can?

How can they not consider Matsui in their 2009 plans?  He’s under contract and he has a full NTC.  His “health status” is that he had his knee scoped on Monday.  There’s no reason to think that he won’t be ready for the start of spring training.

And can we please stop throwing Manny’s name out there as an options?  One of the conditions of his trade was that the team getting him would have to agree to decline his $40M, 2 year option.  Obviously he’s looking higher on both those numbers.  He doesn’t make sense. Sorry for the repeat.

There’s no reason to think that he won’t be ready for the start of spring training.

But there’s a reason to think he won’t be healthy the whole season. Also I hope the FO considers that this FA class is really good, you don’t get too many chances to sign players like Teixera, Ramirez and Dunn and Matsui should not block a signing to help the team for the next 4 years.

shouldn’t he be running at least 65-75% of the time he’s on base?

FWIW, this year in AAA, Gardner reached first base by single or walk 136 times.  He had 37 steals and was caught 9 times.  Now, I don’t know how many times he tried to steal third or home, and I also don’t know how many times he reached first on a error or a fielder’s choice.  And of course, I don’t know how many times second base was open.  But 46/136 is 34%, which is nowhere near 65-75%.

Obviously he’s looking higher on both those numbers.

But what Manny wants and what Manny will actually get are two different things.  He’s going to be 37 and he’s a defensive liability.  I’d be surprised if he gets anything over 3 years and I think $20 million is a pipe dream.  If I had to guess, he’ll get something like 3 years, $50 million.

Actually, I scaled his SB upwards to go with his higher AVG/OBP so that’s already accounted for.

Damn you and your thoroughness!

Please no Manny.  The Yanks have no room for him moving forward.  If you are appalled by Abreu’s defensive ineptitude, Manny will be no better.

Put Manny at DH?  Sure.  Where do you put Matsui and after him, Posada?

Thanks but no thanks.

Dunn would be more palatable since he can theoretically/hopefully play 1B, assuming the Yanks don’t go after and sign Teixera.

If Cashman comes back and retains full control of the team, I could see him moving some of the younger pitching prospects and/or bullpen arms for some position players, or even a starter, depending on how the FA pitching market looks and who the Yanks do/don’t sign.

he’ll get something like 3 years, $50 million.

Right, I know he’s not getting 4/$80 or something like that, but would you want him for $50M for three years?  I don’t.  $15-20M for 1 year?  Sure.  But that’s a pipe-dream too.

Right, I know he’s not getting 4/$80 or something like that, but would you want him for $50M for three years?

I’m with Yatt.  I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

you don’t get too many chances to sign players like Teixera, Ramirez and Dunn and Matsui should not block a signing to help the team for the next 4 years.

I’m not sure that Ramirez or Dunn would help for the next four years.  Dunn’s a nice player, but at 28, he’s basically the same player that Jason Giambi is at 37.  Do we really expect him to age particularly well, or sign for only three or four years?  And as long as Matsui is on the team, he will impact the Yankees’ ability to sign FA OF/DH’s, because those players will probably prefer to sign somewhere else if it means that the position and playing time situation is clearer.

But 46/136 is 34%, which is nowhere near 65-75%.

I don’t know if there is any good way to determine how many SB attempts a player *should* have.  As you (MC) noted, there are a lot of unknowns to go with the knowns.  You certainly can’t steal 2nd with the bases loaded.  Nor if you reach first and the manager calls for a sac-bunt on the first pitch (for that matter, if the hitter choose to swing at the first pitch).

If we assume he is like Willy Taveras (currently leading the majors in steals), Taveras has 75 attempts in 143 times on first base (that’s a crude estimate: H+BB+HBP-HR-2B-3B), which is 52% of the time.  I think that’s probably a ceiling.

The more I think about, the more I think that signing Teix needs to be priority number one (even more than CC).

If Giambi and Abreu walk (which I think is likely) we have this:

C: Posada(?)/Molina
1B:
2B: Cano
SS: Jeter
3B: ARod
LF: Damon
CF:
RF: Nady
DH: Matsui

Obviously you’d love to bring in a CF who can hit, but there aren’t any available.  I don’t see how that lineup scores enough runs (especially if you put Gardner in CF and an average bat at first).

Obviously he’s looking higher on both those numbers.

Actually, I’m not so sure about that.  Remember that he was facing the possibility of having the $20M option for 2009 picked up, and then having the 2010 option declined.  He’s better off being a free agent this off-season than after another year or two of decline.  Also, Boras didn’t represent him when the last contract was signed, so he’s not getting anything, which might have something to do with what he was telling Manny about the relative value of the options vs earlier free agency.

Put Manny at DH?  Sure.  Where do you put Matsui and after him, Posada?

Right, which is why I noted you first need to do something about Matsui, and need some certainty on Posada.  I don’t know if they’ll be able to trade Matsui by the time Manny signs somewhere, if at all.  I also don’t know if they’ll be confident in Posada’s ability to catch until Spring Training, if not later.  I’m just not sure if I want to be saying, “no way” to Manny in September, when he’s not going to sign anywhere until Christmas, or later.

Dunn’s a nice player, but at 28, he’s basically the same player that Jason Giambi is at 37.  Do we really expect him to age particularly well, or sign for only three or four years?

If you’re asking do I expect him to provide more than Giambi for the next three years, the answer is yes.  But I agree he’ll probably get six years somewhere, which means in 2013 on we have a problem.  One of the reasons I’m higher on Burrell, because I think he can be had for 4 years, which may be 1 year too long, but is better than 3 years too long.

I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

I’d take him for free.  That’s not happening either, of course.

If you’re asking do I expect him to provide more than Giambi for the next three years, the answer is yes.

I think it’s pretty clear that that is not what I was asking.  I was asking, “Do we really expect him to age particularly well, or sign for only three or four years?”  And I think that if you sign Dunn for six years, you’re going to have a problem a bit sooner than 2013.  I do agree that a contract that’s one year too long is better than a contract that is three years too long, but I have a feeling that Burrell will get some offers of five years or longer too.

I’m with Yatt.  I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

man, i don’t get this.

if Manny were available for something like $45M/3, i’d do it in a heartbeat and trade Matsui with the sole purpose of clearing salary. 

that might mean eating $3M and getting a B prospect.

Manny as the DH would be a HUGE, HUGE boost to this team.

and they would even have the PR angle covered: “we were a little about some of Manny’s past behavior, but i placed a call to Joe Torre and he assure me that Manny was nothing less than a model citizen and a great teammate”.

surely if Joe Torre endorsed this whacky guy, he must be ok?

I’m with Yatt. I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

And me makes three.

Yup, I’m with yup on the Manny question. 

If Manny can be had for a reasonable amount of $$ and years, not signing him would be crazy.  A lot of “Manny being Manny” stemmed from the Boston FO/fan/media being assholes toward him. 

One key point that we’re not addressing is whether Manny would even *want* to sign as a DH.  If he still thinks of himself as a viable LFer and wouldn’t get any field-playing time, that could certain lead to MbM issues.

I wonder if Manny would take a reasonable deal from the Yankees to have an opportunity to stick it to the Red Sox 19 times a year.  Plus, he grew up a stone’s throw from the Stadium…

I think if the Yankees plan to go with Damon in LF, Nady in RF and Matsui at DH they need another decent-to-good bat to backup those positions to hedge against Matsui/Damon injuries and Nady regression. 

I also think that player needs to be better then a Juan Rivera-type

Count me in on the Manny-bandwagon. 

If he can be had for a reasonable deal (~3/50) I say we go with the yup plan and give away Matsui (I bet Brian Sabean would like his veteranishness).

I say we go with the yup plan and give away Matsui (I bet <strike>Brian Sabean</strike> Joe Torre would like his veteranishness).

Fixed.

Let’s con Ned Coletti into trading Kemp for Matsui!

Count me in on the Manny-bandwagon.

I’d rather see them go with Juan Rivera or someone like that and spend all the resources on pitching.

Signing Manny does not preclude from signing Juan Rivera, as Manny would only be considered as a DH.

Comment on Hughes’s new pitch in the NYT.  Coming in to this season the team and everybody else were quite happy with Hughes’s repertoire - does he really need a cutter?  Shouldn’t he have better spent the time working on mechanics and learning how better to avoid whatever happened early this season?

Manny as the DH would be a HUGE, HUGE boost to this team.

If he hits like he has this year over the next x seasons sure.  But he’s a year removed from a .296/.388/.493 line in a park that is a big boost to RHB, he has negative defensive and baserunning value, and a 3 year contract signs him through ages 37-39.

But I’ll admit I’m not being entirely rational.  The numbers may show it to be a sound move, but I’d have a very hard time rooting for Ramirez as a Yankee.

I had posted about the Hughes *cutter* weeks ago. Thanks anyway.

Question:

Abreu is a type A free agent. Let’s say the Mets sign him. The Yankees get the Mets 1st round draft pick and a supplemental pick.

The Yankees sign Sabathia. The Brewers get the Yankees 1st round draft pick and a supplemental pick.

Now let’s say the Yankees sign Texeria. Do the Angels get the Yankees pick that they got from the Mets, or do the Angels get the Yankees 2nd round pick?

Does it matter what order this happens in? If the Yankees sign Tex before they sign Sabathia, or before Abreu signs elsewhere?

And yes, assume arbitration is declined in all cases.

I’m pretty sure that the picks you get from other teams are protected, ie you can’t lose them if you sign free agents.

69 is correct.

If he hits like he has this year over the next x seasons sure.  But he’s a year removed from a .296/.388/.493 line in a park that is a big boost to RHB, he has negative defensive and baserunning value, and a 3 year contract signs him through ages 37-39.

ok, that is true.  but his home/away splits in 2007 were not drastic, he slugged more on the road than and had more OBP at home.  and its not like Manny has struggled to hit in Yankee stadium. the park seems to suit him just fine. 

what would his projection as a yankee look like?

i’d guess something like .300/.400/.550

and i am only advocating this as a DH with maybe an occassional game in the OF.

does he really need a cutter?  Shouldn’t he have better spent the time working on mechanics and learning how better to avoid whatever happened early this season?

Maybe adding another pitch is a way to avoid what happened early this season?

And YM is right, you can’t lose compensatory picks.  When a team signs multiple type A FAs, they lose picks from subsequent rounds.  The compensatory picks are awarded based on the Elias rankings of those FAs, not the order in which they were signed.  I’m not sure who would be ranked higher between CC and Tex, but that’s what would matter, not the dates of the signings.

I’d rather see them go with Juan Rivera or someone like that and spend all the resources on pitching.

the yankees basically met or exceeded their pitching projections in a year where they lost their top 2 starters for large chunks of the season and got absolutely nothing from Hughes and Kennedy.  they were surprisingly decent at preventing runs. 

what they failed to do was score runs.  they are going to score 200 fewer runs than last year.  and they are presumably going to cut ties with one or two of their most productive hitters.

they need offense.  badly.

ok, it doesn’t have to be Manny. i understand the distaste for the guy.  i completely understand that.

but if the yankees do nothing else except sign Juan Rivera, they *probably* won’t be a playoff team again.

they need to sign at least one big bat, be it Teixeira, Dunn, Ramirez, Burrell, etc.  they probably need to sign 2.  or one big bat and some sort of upgrade in CF.

the offense needs to be a huge priority.

Shouldn’t he have better spent the time working on mechanics and learning how better to avoid whatever happened early this season?

why do these have to be mutually exclusive?

part of “what happened” was that lefties hit .409/.527/.614 off of him this year.

adding a cutter to throw to left handers seems like a pretty great idea to me.

does he really need a cutter?  Shouldn’t he have better spent the time working on mechanics and learning how better to avoid whatever happened early this season?

“Maybe adding another pitch is a way to avoid what happened early this season?”

I’m not in principle opposed, I just don’t understand what we think the issue is.  IIRC it was decided that he hadn’t lost much if any velocity coming into the season.  Was it then a stuff issue, or a command or control issue?  If it was just a vision problem and an injury that led to his ineffectiveness, adding a pitch wouldn’t be necessary, and if it was command or mechanics at fault, complicating his repertoire seems like a bad idea.

“adding a cutter to throw to left handers seems like a pretty great idea to me.”

Ok, I was wondering if that was the reason.  Aside - is the concentration of lefty hitters in the majors significantly higher than in the minors?

Shouldn’t he have better spent the time working on mechanics and learning how better to avoid whatever happened early this season?

“why do these have to be mutually exclusive?”

Naïvely I would think (there are large swaths of phase space where) it is better to simplify what one is doing when having problems with fundamentals.

what would his projection as a yankee look like?

i’d guess something like .300/.400/.550

Pretty close.  Right now I’d have him at .302/.403/.536 for next year, although this is using last year’s AL/NL conversions and park factors so it’s subject to change.  The problem is you’re not just signing him for next year, you are signing him for 2010 and 2011 as well most likely.  Maybe he’d be Edgar Martinez at DH and effective through his early 40s and I’m just being stubborn, but I want this team to get younger and better defensively.  Signing Manny accomplishes neither.

I’m not in principle opposed, I just don’t understand what we think the issue is. 

Maybe the separation in speeds between Hughes’s two primary pitches makes him too easy to pick up by MLB hitters?  The cutter gives him a pitch that looks like a fastball but with movement.  In theory, that could help the effectiveness of both his fastball and his cutter since hitters will not really be certain which is coming out of his hand.

Aside - is the concentration of lefty hitters in the majors significantly higher than in the minors?

I’d assume not, but I’d assume the difference in quality of lefties in the minors compared to the majors could necessitate a change in arsenal. 

Last year I looked at the track records of some established MLB pitchers who debuted in the majors by the age of 22.  For the most part they struggled, and I think it’s because a lot of what works in the minors doesn’t work in the majors, and there’s an adjustment period needed for just about anyone who doesn’t have lights-out stuff (like our Mr. Chamberlain).

How do we feel about soon-be-free-agent Oliver Perez?

How do we feel about soon-be-free-agent Oliver Perez?

He’s better than Kei Igawa.  I wouldn’t touch him though.

How do we feel about soon-be-free-agent Oliver Perez?

Oh wait.  That’s 2009.  Forget it.

Okay, I can’t read, (which is a real liability in my job). 

And now I’m just cluttering up the board.

Okay, I can’t read, (which is a real liability in my job).

Hasn’t stopped some of my former professors…

Naïvely I would think (there are large swaths of phase space where) it is better to simplify what one is doing when having problems with fundamentals.

and you may be right.  it seems to make sense.

and i don’t really know what i am talking about when it comes to “fixing” pitchers.

but perhaps he’s been playing with the cutter for a while and just dusted it off?

it’s so hard to separate what part of his mechanics were “off” and what part were just from the rib injury.  i believe they worked on bringing his arm angle back down to where it was before last season, when he was more over the top.  i think the yankees, as an organization, seem to believe that an over the top curve is the best off-speed pitch to prevent injuries.  but with Hughes, they wound up with a curveball with less bite and a fastball that was pretty hittable.  when Hughes was HUGHES, he threw from a lower arm angle and he racked up tons of ground balls with this fastball when he wasn’t striking guys out.  that’s not the guy we saw earlier this year.

again, tough to say how much was his injury, how much was mechanical.

i think perez might be a better value than CC, sheets or burnett.

I’m majorly concerned with CC’s arm at this point since the brewers have abused him. Burnett and sheets are always risks as well.

Oliver goes through some serious stretches of dominating the AAAA, and he beat us a couple times. i’d give him 4/48 when it’s his time i think.

FWIW:

At this point, Gardner seems to be turning a corner. Although he said after the game that he was comfortable during his first stint in New York as well, he seems more comfortable now that he’s had a few months to adjust. His stance is a little different and his at-bats look more like the ones I saw in Triple-A.

So, the chemicals are stirring a little slower at work today, so I was reading Posnaski’s article on SI and he’s talking about MVP candidates.  Not a terrible discussion, but I thought this little tidbit on closers was interesting:

Also, an Angels’ fan mentioned that K-Rod’s saves have been much more of a thrill ride than the others’. For fun, I did a quick countdown of easy saves—those would-be saves where the pitcher went 1-2-3 without allowing walk or hit. Obviously easy saves are worth exactly the same as difficult ones, but I think it does tell you who are the most dominant closers around.

K-Rod: 19 easy saves out of 61 (31.1 percent).

Oh, don’t let all these meaningless wins fool you.  This has been a very bad team.  That WOE stuff wasn’t all that tongue-in-cheek.

That said, you bring Texeira and maybe Sabathia in, and you keep Bobby, and A-Rod stops blowing it in the clutch, and Posada and Matsui come back, and Cano keeps hustling (or gets a swift kick EARLY in the season), maybe we’ll contend next year.