It looks like the Yankees will try to move one or two outfielders acording to this link :
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/25/ringolsby-yankees-arent-doing-anything-new/?partner=RSS.

I just don’t buy it. Maybe they will try to move Nady or Matsui, but moving Swisher will be a stupid idea. I wish they don’t trade anyone now, maybe at the trade deadline one of them has better trade value and then you pull the trigger or the worst case scenario is to offer them arbitration in order to have some picks in 2010.

I posted this at the end of the last thread, but keep in mind that Swisher is a middle of the pack Type B, Damon is the #1 type B, Matsui is a middle of the pack type A and Nady is comfortably a type A although a little towards the bottom. Of course, Nady, Damon and Matsui are the 2010 impending free agents, and probably only Nady is a lock to be offered arbitration considering is relatively modest salary. If any of those guys are moved, they’re ranking status should certainly be a factor. Nady looks to be pretty valuable.

SG- Who are the biggest offenders on defense?

According to CHONE

According to CAIRO

Any reason for the different line ups in CHONE vs CAIRO and for not going with Gardner or Melky in CF?

If any of those guys are moved, they’re ranking status should certainly be a factor. Nady looks to be pretty valuable.

I agree, and I still think that with that Nady has the most value to the Yankees out of those (not counting Swisher).  They quite simply aren’t likely to resign Damon or Matsui.  Especially if they can resign Nady for less $$‘s (and he’s younger), and have Swisher to play another corner and one of Gardner/Melky/AJax to handle CF.

Again, I’d most like to trade Matsui because that gives the team the most flexibility.  Damon may be the most tradeable as far as value vs. utility to Yankees long term.  I don’t think a market will develop for either for at least a couple more weeks though; several other corner-outfielders/DH’s need to find homes first.

It looks like the best line up might be DHing Damon, having Swisher in LF and Gardner in CF.

... itchy trigger finger.

So, if that would be close to the best line up (or the best line up), they could conceivably trade Matsui for something other than a major league ready starter, which should increase his value, no?

Trading Matsui for something other than a major league starter only makes sense if the yankees need to save the money (ie they are over budget now) or if saving the money leads to another deal (like resigning Pettite or trading for Cameron). 

If we could trade Matsui + 4 million for a bag of balls and then trade for Cameron, we would be at the same level salary wise.  we would then have the improved outfield of Swisher, Cameron, Nady with Damon DHing or when Posada needs to DH we could do Damon, Cameron, Nady (or Swisher).  Lots of flexibility and a real major league ballplayer in CF.

The biggest draw for keeping Matsui is the Japanese dollars he brings in at this point. Without him, the Yanks wont get any of that. Heres an idea, trade Matsui and a few others for ICHIRO, then you keep the Japanese duckets and upgrade CF

I guess that Damon could be a type A FA after the season and I don’t think he’ll accept arbitration. Matsui could be a type B and I don’t think we should offer arbitration to him. Nady could be a type A FA and is a no brainer to offer him arbitration.

That said, I think we should trade Matsui, but given his low trade value I think we must wait if he increases his trade value by the trade deadline.

Trading Matsui for something other than a major league starter only makes sense if the yankees need to save the money

.. if your only goal is success in 2009. Considering how bad the 2008 draft went and how they’ree giving up some of their high picks this year, Matsui for some younger players (even just some prospects) could make sense.

Matsui for some younger players (even just some prospects) could make sense.

I rather keep Matsui than having mediocre prospects for him, remember he just had knee surgery in October, so his trade value could be his all time low. Trading Nady for a Tabata type of prospect makes more sense to me, but that would be dificult to have.

.. if your only goal is success in 2009. Considering how bad the 2008 draft went and how they’ree giving up some of their high picks this year, Matsui for some younger players (even just some prospects) could make sense.

You could trade Matsui for a) a MiL player who could help you next year, or could be part of a trade next year or at the deadline (Holliday at the deadline?  A CF next year?) b) a utility IF who is an upgrade over Ransom.  You know, what Betemit was supposed to be.

Benefits to trading Matsui beyond the player you get for him a) flexibility for having that DH role open to keep Damon healthy, and move other players into it so you aren’t losing a big-bat but still get the players a partial day off b) flexibility in the DH role so that if Posada can still hit like Jorge Posada (even the 2006 Posada has value as a DH) but can’t catch at all, you have a spot for him c) there’s never, ever ever, a temptation to put Matsui in the field d) saving 8+ million dollars is still saving 8+ million dollars, and may allow them some more flexibility for taking on a contract later e) as a PR move, this may help some of the calls for a salary cap.  E.g. “we knew we couldn’t afford to keep this roster together, so now we have to move Matsui”.  May not mean much in real life, but a few journalists will pick it up.

1) what kind of “Japanese dollars” does Matsui bring in?  I thought I remember reading that the majority of revenue brought in through the Japanese market is shared throughout the league.  If we’re talking about the actual Japanese advertising inside the stadium, I don’t think the Yankees will have problems finding replacements

2) can the yankees sign another Type A free agent?  I’ve been on and off the internet b/c of Xmas, so forgive me if i’ve missed a concrete answer on this. 

3) if they are looking to move two guys, it has to mean that they want to bring in one more player.  and if they are willing to eat salary on Matsui (which I think they’d have to if they actually want to move him), then the upgrade at DH would have to be huge.  Manny huge.

4) I think the Yankees are only trying to trade Matsui (again, b/c they want Manny), but have to pretend like they are shopping all their OF to hide this fact.

2) can the yankees sign another Type A free agent?  I’ve been on and off the internet b/c of Xmas, so forgive me if i’ve missed a concrete answer on this.

If Abreu or Pettitte sign with other team, then the Yankees could sign a type A FA.

maybe the yankees just want to save some money?  it would seem difficult, in light of the shopping spree the team just had, for me as a fan to begrudge them that.

same goes with not just giving Pettitte his $16M or bringing Abreu back, as many people wanted them to do.  if saying that cash got them more comfortable with adding Teixeira, then i think it was a good decision.

1) what kind of “Japanese dollars” does Matsui bring in?  I thought I remember reading that the majority of revenue brought in through the Japanese market is shared throughout the league.  If we’re talking about the actual Japanese advertising inside the stadium, I don’t think the Yankees will have problems finding replacements

This is exactly true. If someone needs to educate themselves on this, read the 2 months of threads around when Matsuzaka signed with Boston.

Any reason for the different line ups in CHONE vs CAIRO

Not really. Just depends on my mood at the time.

and for not going with Gardner or Melky in CF?

Because they are not as good as the options I chose.

then the upgrade at DH would have to be huge.  Manny huge.

Does it?

Check out the CHONE projections with Damon in CF. He is +74 on offense, -2 on defense while Matsui is +62 on offense. If you move Damon to DH and have Gardner or Melky in CF, it’s probably within 5-7 BR+RS of Matsui + Damon, and the Yankees are already projected to be 2 wins ahead of the Red Sox(which I’ll take to mean that they are competitive and basically equal.)

Another thing to consider, at least for argument’s sake, is that the Yankees pitching staff now has pitchers with very high K/9 and GB/FB, so if they want to the most mileage out of a move, a Gardner-type at SS and moving to Jeter to DH might have even made more sense.  I bet if they still had Gonzalez they might have at least considered this.

Because they are not as good as the options I chose.

Do you know by how much?

He is +74 on offense, -2 on defense while Matsui is +62 on offense.

You’re ignoring the playing time disparity.  Over 650 PA, Damon would project to 85 BR, Matsui to 90.

Do you know by how much?

By CHONE:

So, how much better can you do than a projected 99 win team (or 96 wins with the AL East adjustment)?  It seems like the Yankees should make the post-season barring another year of debilitating injuries (Posada, Wang, Joba and ARod to a lesser extent).

Yes, I’m sure Pettitte is going to be weeping about missing out on the Yankees severely under-market offer. And if there’s one thing I’m sure of about the Yankees FO, it’s that they won’t cave in and go back on a threat they’ve made.

(/snarky Red Sox fan who’s been jilted by Tex)

So, how much better can you do than a projected 99 win team (or 96 wins with the AL East adjustment)?

Some apparently still want to add Sheets, Manny, a better CF (Cameron or Baldelli as part of a platoon), and I think I’ve even seen some calls to upgrade the bullpen.  I think we projected to 95 last year and missed by 6, so the thought is if we can project to 105, even if we miss by 8 the Yanks will still make the playoffs.

I’d be more interested in keeping some flexibility for a mid-season pickup than trying to improve the team as-is.  If you can do both, great, but this looks like a very good team.  Worry about depth when someone gets injured.

And if there’s one thing I’m sure of about the Yankees FO, it’s that they won’t cave in and go back on a threat they’ve made.

I know you’re (mostly) being snarky, but though that’s the opinion here by many I don’t think it is accurate.  W/o parsing through all of the statements actually made and what they really meant, it seems that when the Yankees make a statement/threat like that, what they’re really saying is, “we’re not going to negotiate on YOUR terms”. 

Twins say, “we’re not going to give Johan w/o Hughes+IPK+a lot more”, Yanks say no; and they didn’t.  Boras says (for ARod), “we’re waiting for you to make an offer”, and Yankees waited for THEM to start the negotiations.  Ditto w/ Damon a few years ago.  With Pettitte, I’m sure they’d be willing to move off of $10M.  Just not until Andy/the Hendricks drop demands for $16M.  I don’t think they’ve done anything yet to say they can be waited out since they’re bluffing.  But they’ve done a good job of waiting others out.

You’re bringing up the ARod negotiations to argue the Yankees hold their ground in negotiations? That situation is exhibits A, B, C, D…. in the argument that they constantly back off their empty threats. They did it before, during, and after the 2007 season. They drew a line in the sand, then crawled over it.

As for Pettitte, there’s no reason for him to budge. The Yankees just gave 5/82 to a pitcher who’s slightly better than him. 1/16 is quite a bargain in comparison.

You’re bringing up the ARod negotiations to argue the Yankees hold their ground in negotiations? That situation is exhibits A, B, C, D…. in the argument that they constantly back off their empty threats. They did it before, during, and after the 2007 season. They drew a line in the sand, then crawled over it.

Really?  Seems to me ARod came crawling over it when he skipped Boras and called the Yankees and told them that’s where he wanted to be.  That’s my main point; not that the Yankees make the claim and then don’t move.  It’s that they wait for the other party to move FIRST.  Isn’t that what John Henry has tried to do as well?  The difference is Cashman seems to be better about getting the other party to move first.

I think that Yankees fans all collectively suffer from learned indifference when it comes to our CF situation.  Melky and Gardner are lucky to be in the Majors, let alone starters on a good team.  They rank 54 and 60 respectively by Marcel offensive projections (and no amount of defensive prowess can make up for such pitiful offense).  Perhaps the plan is Damon and Swisher splitting the majority of the games in center with Gardner (because his speed makes him a better bench asset) filling in for perhaps 30 - 40 games and late innings. 

I’m sure Damon would like to increase his value in a walk year by playing some CF.  I have to believe it is either the aformentioned scenario, or Cashman will trade for an upgrade in CF (if not now, then by the trading deadline).

“Really?  Seems to me ARod came crawling over it when he skipped Boras and called the Yankees and told them that’s where he wanted to be.  That’s my main point; not that the Yankees make the claim and then don’t move. .....

Isn’t that what John Henry has tried to do as well?  The difference is Cashman seems to be better about getting the other party to move first.”

These are pretty funny interpretations of how each of these things played out.

On a different note, something I’ve been meaning to look at for a while and finally did it.  We hear a lot that the Yankees need to get back to what they did in the 90’s, and build from within.  So I thought, how many players on the 1996 Yankees were home-grown, and played a significant amount of time?  How many do we project doing the same for the 2009 Yankees?  The criteria I used was at least 100PA or 40IP.  So this will not pick up some players who only saw a little time, like Pat Kelly or Jorge Posada.

For the 1996 Yankees, I got 11 (Jeter, Bernie and Gerald Williams, Leyritz, Andy Fox, Ruben Rivera, Pettitte, R. Mendoza, Mo, Wickman, Brian Boehringer).  For the projected 2009 Yankees, I get…probably 11. 

Definitely Cano, Jeter, Posada, Joba, Wang, Rivera, Veras, Hughes, and Edwar.  I figure one of Gardner/Melky, probably not both.  Hughes I figure will get 40IP no matter what (since he’ll be the first up in case of injury, a few other times), and may be the 5th starter.  Then either IPK or Pettitte; if they sign Pettitte he’s the 4th starter and IPK may not get to 40IP, if they don’t sign Pettitte I think IPK will get at least 40.  So there’s 11.

And it could easily be higher, as BOTH Melky/Gardner could get 100PA, not to mention Jackson could get that in the 2nd half.  IPK could still get to 40IP even if they sign Pettitte.  Not to mention Robertson, Aceves, Coke, or even Melancon or some other pitchers.

A better way may be to add up IP/PA to see how many those equate, but that may be harder to do until after the fact.  Seems to me though that the 2009 Yankees have a chance to be MORE home grown than the 1996 Yankees were.

These are pretty funny interpretations of how each of these things played out.

And I’m sure if after Henry saying they were out of the Tex sweepstakes, if they had upped their offer a few million and come away with Tex you would have been lamenting it?  Or would you have been talking about how well-played it was to show Boras how he wasn’t going to be wringing more money out of the Sox?

I suppose I have yet to see proof of how anything Cashman has done or said has cost the Yankees a ton of extra $$‘s to get a player, despite hearing how it will.

For the 1996 Yankees, I got 11 (Jeter, Bernie and Gerald Williams, Leyritz, Andy Fox, Ruben Rivera, Pettitte, R. Mendoza, Mo, Wickman, Brian Boehringer).

Technically, Boehringer came in a trade from the White Sox (for Paul Assenmacher I think).

Definitely Cano, Jeter, Posada, Joba, Wang, Rivera, Veras, Hughes, and Edwar. 

Veras came as a free agent signing but bounced from Tampa Bay to Texas first.

Your general point stands though.

I think that Yankees fans all collectively suffer from learned indifference when it comes to our CF situation.  Melky and Gardner are lucky to be in the Majors, let alone starters on a good team.  They rank 54 and 60 respectively by Marcel offensive projections (and no amount of defensive prowess can make up for such pitiful offense).

I just want to make sure that everyone knows that Castro is not my new handle.

If you move Damon to DH and have Gardner or Melky in CF, it’s probably within 5-7 BR+RS of Matsui + Damon…

My feeling is that this is only “true” because Cabrera and Gardner are ridiculously over-projected offensively.  I mean come on, guys, get your noses out of the spreadsheets and tell me that you honestly believe that Johnny Damon is only worth five more batting runs than Melky Cabrera over 600 PA.  Matusi is different of course, because you have to wonder how many PA you’ll be able to squeeze out of him.  But then again, you’d have to think that other teams would wonder the same thing, thereby make him harder to trade for anything of value.  And “anything of value” includes salary relief.

I just don’t buy it.

Me neither.  When did Tracy Ringolsby become the go-to guy for straight dope on the Yankee FO’s thinking?

Your general point stands though.

Thanks SG.  I admit a cheated a little and for some players I wasn’t 100% sure about I clicked on their link (BBRef) and if the first team they played for in the majors was the Yankees, I counted them as “home grown”.  It can be a good debate about if a player counts as “home grown” if they’ve played for another org before your team.  E.g. if a player plays 10 games in rookie ball, is traded to a new team, and after 4 years in the minors plays in the majors for his “new” team, shouldn’t that team get credit for developing him?  But that’s a different thing altogether.

get your noses out of the spreadsheets

Now now.  You’re going to get yourself classified as anti-sabremetrics! 

My guess is most of the difference is age; that is, Damon should decline and Melky should advance.  Of course, there’s also an excellent chance Damon could advance and Melky could decline.  For the 2009 Yankees, that would probably be a good thing.  For the 2010 Yankees, not so good.

You’re going to get yourself classified as anti-sabremetrics!

Well, if the alternative is to get myself classified as the guy who uses too many annoying smiley thingies…

My guess is most of the difference is age

My guess is that most of the difference is regression to the mean.  Take any good player and any bad player you like—they will always project closer going forward than they’ve performed in the past because every projection system includes some component of regressing to league average performance.  But at some point, a bad player is just a bad player, and there stops being much of a reason to expect his future performance to be closer to average than his past performance predicts it should be.

“And I’m sure if after Henry saying they were out of the Tex sweepstakes, if they had upped their offer a few million and come away with Tex you would have been lamenting it?  Or would you have been talking about how well-played it was to show Boras how he wasn’t going to be wringing more money out of the Sox?”

No, that’s your argument. Brilliant Cashman outplayed Henry by coming in with the highest offer. How, oh how, does he do it? Just because you believe everything that comes out of your team’s mouth doesn’t mean I do.

“I suppose I have yet to see proof of how anything Cashman has done or said has cost the Yankees a ton of extra $$’s to get a player, despite hearing how it will.”

Hearing from who? Not from me. My snark above was about SG’s comment that Pettitte was going to be left out in the cold. There’s little reason to believe any of the Yanks’ threats until they follow through on a few more of them.

Just because you believe everything that comes out of your team’s mouth doesn’t mean I do.

Well, that’s just because you’re too busy believing everything that comes out of your team’s mouth.  It’s OK, we’ve got to divide the labor somehow.

FWIW, I don’t think Cashman outplayed Henry, although Henry may have outplayed himself.  I do think Cashman did a reasonably good job of figuring out where the market for Teixeira was going to top out and recognizing the opportunity this presented to the Yankees.  If nothing else, it was a very different approach than the massive pre-emptive first strike tactics used with Sabathia.

“Well, that’s just because you’re too busy believing everything that comes out of your team’s mouth.”

Like what?

Nobody outplayed anybody. The Yankees outbid the Red Sox [period]. You can argue that the Red Sox should have bid more (arguable in my mind) or that the Yankees paid too much (less arguable) or that the price made sense for the Yanks but wouldn’t have for the Red Sox (decent).

SG,

Who do your projections have catching for the Red Sox?

Like what?

Sheesh.  I thought the next sentence made it pretty obvious that it was a joke.  I guess I really should go back to using too many annoying smiley thingies.

For your sake, I hope you posted #41 without reading #40.

I thought the next sentence made it pretty obvious that it was a joke.

There is nothing – I repeat: nothing! – funny about Marxism.

Damon’s only -2 in CF? That sounds too good to be true…isn’t the CW that he’ll get injured if he plays out there too much?

There is nothing – I repeat: nothing! – funny about Marxism.

Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?

Damon’s only -2 in CF? That sounds too good to be true…isn’t the CW that he’ll get injured if he plays out there too much?

Yeah, and once he’s on the DL, he won’t be costing you any more runs on defense.

so if they want to the most mileage out of a move, a Gardner-type at SS and moving to Jeter to DH might have even made more sense.  I bet if they still had Gonzalez they might have at least considered this.

And I bet I get a pony for Kwanzaa.

What the hell would a frog do with a pony?

MC, you have a dirty mind.

Who do your projections have catching for the Red Sox?

George Kottaras around 70% and Dusty Brown at 30%.  Catcher’s one place the Sox could pick up some pretty good ground.

How did those 2 fair?

I think it is fair to argue that the Sox played the game with Teix the way they wanted to and the Yanks played it their way and that neither did an exceptionally fantastic or awful job of it. Everyone wants to proclaim a hero and a goat, but essentially the Yanks simply outbid the sox and that is that. As big a Yankee fan as I am, I don’t see much of a point of saying that the Sox screwed up or that Cash was masterful. Clearly, the Sox’ strategy for negotiations has been sufficiently clever to net them two world championships in 4 years, so calling them dunces isn’t going to seem particularly objective. That being said, the Yanks made the playoffs 13 out of 14 years and quadrupled the value of their organization in that time, so they probably are OK at running their organization as well.

That being said, the Yanks are clearly the one team in professional sports that has consistently understood that spending on talent is a better investment than making a modest profit and shoving your cash under a mattress (or giving it to Bernie Madoff). The profit margins at the highest levels of the sports industry are obscene, and the growth is aggressive, so I think that the Yanks are consistently ahead of the curve in their understanding of the correlation between on-field excellence and financial gain.

Good analysis. I’m drunk. I think we paid too much but Teixera>>>Holiday.  I hope they can trade Matsui and maybe Nady…then sign Manny (2-3yrs) and Baldelli.  Yes!  Pettitte?  Fuckem, but Hughes better pan out…or Acevedes, or IPK, or…

wow, pags, that post does seem a little drunk—I mean that only in the best way. Bravo to you for logging on nonetheless and bravo again for proudly proclaiming your inebriation. I, too, am pulling for Acevedes, whoever he may be.

I’ll knock down a shot for you right now and try to catch up.

Has anyone else ever noticed that there are blogs in Taiwan that translate our posts about Chien Ming Wang into Taiwanese so that they can understand what we are saying about him here in America? I think that is awesome. I have never felt so famous.

http://www.wang40.com.tw/forum/archiver/?tid-48569.html

Bravo to you for logging on nonetheless

My money’s on the auto-login feature.

there are blogs in Taiwan that translate our posts about Chien Ming Wang into Taiwanese

I’ll bet they’re hilarious if you translate them back into English.

I really hope Wang comes back strong.  His injury was so very frustrating last season…running the goddamned bases!  Gets me angry thinking about it.  He’s such a pleasure to watch pitch: strike, ball, strike, ball, groundball.  And again and again.

Here’s a holiday wish for health for the Yanks this year.

Does anyone know how many options Melky has left?

Two by my count. And the latter involves getting off the pot.

I’ll bet they’re hilarious if you translate them back into English.

“If you are a little inclined to baseball data baseball Fan, you should be for Voros McGracken DIPs theory put forward by a certain way Degree of understanding.

DIPS Theory: Defense Independent Pitching Stats theory, this gentleman made a point of view of defense for vote Pitching hand the extent of the impact of the performance. DIPs the data is not required by the anti-pitcher Shou-derived results, and then DIPs data and other data to compare the defensive
As can be seen on the defensive for an impact pitcher. In his theory, not defensive video Ring data is: walk, strikeouts, home runs, who sent and intentionally touch balls sent, which More data is a pitcher who can be their own control. Other needs of defense data Are: wins, lost vote, netball Board the number of missing points, ERA, was hit a few, sacrifice fly”

Of course, my favorite part is the part about intentionally touching balls.

And now I have the urge to say something in Chinese for their benefit, but have no idea what…大家好!

Does anyone know how many options Melky has left?

None.

Two by my count. And the latter involves getting off the pot.

Nice.

...was hit a few, sacrifice fly…

Pretty much sums up my high school baseball career.

Long and interesting article about the 5th starter options:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/12/28/703203/life-after-pettitte

Oh, and I wonder how our Taiwanese friends feel about all the “I love Wang” and “broken Wang” jokes.

I think that there is no doubt that statistically speaking the yanks can theoretically get by without Pettite. But Pettite affords insurance. He guarantees that they will get decent starts from their 4th or 5th starters even if injuries come. I feel that concerns about Hughes and Aceves not getting their share of time on the mound are unfounded—someone will hurt themselves running the bases or something like that. If not, it will just mean that all 5 Yankee starters were healthy all year and that will probably mean that the Yankees will be going to the World Series. If the Yanks need to save some money this year, then fine…don’t sign Pettite. But if they have the money to spend, it is not a move that will likely be to their benefit at some point in the season. Hughes will have the next 6-20 years to prove he is a valuable Yankee even if the rotation stays healthy throughout ‘09.

oops. Meant to say “it IS a move that will likely be to their benefit…”

yankees make monkey.

monkey eat boobies.

oops, i meant to say ‘MONEY LIKE TOOTIES’.

we will win world series.

monkey make tootooes.

love,

eelz.

I agree with dannux on Pettitte.

Andy will be in the Steinbrenners’ suite at the new stadium waving to the crowd and announcing his comeback on May 3, 2009.  Suzyn Waldman will cry.  Oh my goodness gracious!  You read it here first.

This way, the Yanks only spend the $10M they’ve offered, but Pettitte doesn’t have to take a (pro-rated) paycut.

How did those 2 fair?

About a half win above replacement level.  Re-signing Varitek probably would be worth a win or two.