Saturday, August 1, 2009
Alfredo Aceves - ERA vs. FIP through Games of 7/31/2009

Corrections suck.
In other news, Jerrey Hairston Jr. Gets Drafted in The Yankees.
This season of 'transfer' in MLB has been quite a talked about one. With big names finding their new homes (players getting drafted to different teams), one can surely expect one mind boggling season of baseball this year. But the trading off of inside/outsider Jerry Hairston Jr. to the Yankees has been a bit different from the "trading offs" we have witnessed this season.
While Victor Martinez, Jake Peavy and Jarrod Washburn were all dealt to contenders, the Yankees' only move was to acquire Jerry Hairston Jr. from the Reds. According to the reports, the Bombers sent minor league catcher Chase Weems to Cincinnati for Hairston, who is set to join his new team this Saturday, prior to their game against Chicago.
Indeed, the season of transfer has been quite talked about.
Hairston strengthens the bench partially by being a better hitter than Cody Ransom. Then again, Miguel Cairo may do the same and he's out of baseball I think.
| System | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | wOBA |
| 2009 chone projection | 335 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 46 | .265 | .328 | .395 | 40 | 77 | .310 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 367 | 84 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 28 | 55 | .259 | .308 | .392 | 41 | 73 | .293 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 309 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 41 | .284 | .338 | .450 | 42 | 88 | .328 |
| 2009 tht projection | 352 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 25 | 49 | .266 | .327 | .409 | 43 | 80 | .313 |
| 2009 zips projection | 174 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 27 | .272 | .339 | .405 | 21 | 80 | .319 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 313 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 44 | .273 | .327 | .408 | 38 | 78 | .310 |
| 2009 average projection | 308 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 44 | .270 | .328 | .410 | 38 | 79 | .312 |
| 2009 actuals | 340 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 46 | .254 | .291 | .397 | 36 | 69 | .284 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BR/650: Batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
CAIRO had Hairston projected to hit around .273/ .327/.408 entering 2009, and his average projection was for a line of around .270/.328/.410. He's missing around .015 - .020 points of batting average at .254/.291/.397 instead. His going forward projection is for a line of around .263/.312/.404 (wOBA of .300). Ransom's going forward projection is for a line of .000/.000/.000 (actually .222/.295/.392, wOBA of .287), so that's a slight upgrade. The difference between a wOBA of .300 and .287 over 100 PAs is only about a run, so it's not a huge difference offensively.
The bigger advantage Hairston brings is defensive versatility. He's played every position except 1B, C, and P this year. Here's a quick look at his career zone ratings:
| Player | Year | Pos | GP | Inn | CH | PM | ZR | Diff | RS | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | 2B | 291 | 2454.3 | 877 | 731 | .834 | 15 | 11 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | 3B | 44 | 322.0 | 82 | 62 | .756 | -2 | -1 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | CF | 42 | 268.0 | 87 | 79 | .908 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | LF | 54 | 205.3 | 53 | 48 | .906 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | RF | 23 | 100.0 | 29 | 27 | .931 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | SS | 67 | 491.3 | 144 | 120 | .833 | 2 | 1 |
GP: Games played
Inn: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and PM by an average defender
RS: Runs saved compared to average
Although we have sample size concerns with most of the positions, at least so far Hairston's been average or above at every position but 3B. Hairston's also stolen 134 bases in his career, although at a percentage lower than the break-even point. So he should be useful in a pinch-running role if needed, as long as the goal of said pinch-running is not necessarily to steal, but to give the team a better chance to score on a non-HR hit.
A couple of tough losses in Chicago have carved the Yankees' lead in the AL East back down to 1.5 games. Hopefully A.J. Burnett can stop the bleeding against John Danks, who's having a strong season for the White Sox.
Comments
Corrections suck.
Yes, yes, they do, particularly when they lead to performances meeting head from above.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, if the Yankees had more pitching depth, they could have looked into trading Aceves while his value may have been higher than it will probably ever be.
I’m disappointed that they have apparently decided to keep Ransom and option Shelley (even though Ransom is out of option years and Shelley isn’t).
Ace may have given his best already for 2009. He looked terrible last night. My instincts tell me he may have a physical problem beyond the tired arm he is already reporting. This team is thin at No. 5 and if Ace goes down really in bad shape for middle relief. With two months remaining I am very concerned. We don’t like to trade prospects, but with every new year comes a greater liklihood that the Posadas, Jeters and Riveras won’t be able to repeat their performances that many take for granted.
I am seriously of the mind that Yankee evaluators don’t know what they are doing. If this so called pitching rich organization is rich, why can’t somebody come up that can consistently get people out?
Maybe Melancon can step up. He’s looked good lately in his few innings of work.
We don’t like to trade prospects, but with every new year comes a greater liklihood that the Posadas, Jeters and Riveras won’t be able to repeat their performances that many take for granted.
The reason they can’t trade prospects for quick fixes is that they need them to be available in the future to either replace (in relative terms) Rivera and Posada (Melancon, Montero, Romine) or be available for a trade if Jeter (or others) precipitously declines.
I am seriously of the mind that Yankee evaluators don’t know what they are doing. If this so called pitching rich organization is rich, why can’t somebody come up that can consistently get people out?
Because they threw their #6 and #7 starters in the bullpen and their #3 starer and #8 starter are injured so it forced them to use a #9 starter who could only go 3 innings meaning guys like Robertson had to be stretched beyond his normal one inning and got tired, Aceves (who is having minor shoulder pain) had to be stretched beyond one inning and got tired. If #9 lasted even 5.2 and Robertson, Aceves, and Melancon pitched 3.1 scoreless like they should have things would have been fine.
Using the #9 starter in the rotation is the problem.
Did I miss the discussion of Garza getting fined for admittedly doing more than what Burnett didn’t admit to doing? Was there any attempt to justify that?
Yeah, I was surprised Garza just got fined. But then again, it’s a David v. Goliath thing. No one wants to suspend David.
No one wants to suspend David.
I think David is perfectly capable of serving a suspension, seeing as he bests Goliath and all. Does no one in the commissioner’s office own a Bible?
The biggest downside to acquiring Hairston is that Cody “Rake” Ransom is still on the team.
Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira DH
Rodriguez 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Cabrera CF
Hairston LF
Ransom 1B
__
Optioning Shelley and putting Ransom at 1B? Sometimes I hate the way this team is run.
Why not do Hinske in RF and Swisher at 1B? What the butt?
[12] I guess because Danks is LH and Hinske’s splits v. LH pitching for his career are bad, although they are good this season. But I agree, at least he is a professional hitter, unlike Ransom. Apparently, Girardi is blinded by handedness.
Girardi is blinded by handedness.
I thought that was just an old wives’ tale!
That actually made me laugh.
House money lineup for Joe.
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