Sunday, July 5, 2009

AL Team Pitching Stats Through Games of July 4, 2009

Apologies for the lack of posts this week, but I've crawled out of the basement to enjoy the July Fourth week and haven't been around a computer much. I have caught at least parts of most of the games this week at either bars or at friend's houses, with the occasional torturous John Sterling listen thrown in, so I have been able to enjoy the Yankees winning nine of their last 10 games at least.

Anyway, I was enjoying the Yankees' recent stretch of pitching (93 IP, 77 H, 9 HR, 30 BB, 81 K, 3.00 ERA over their last 10 games) and wanted to see how they rank in the AL after their crappy April. So I pulled the splits for every team for April, then May through July 4, using David Pinto's Day by Day Database.

The only problem with this database is it pulls the data in terms of how batters have done against the pitchers, so we have to finagle it a little if we want to look at in terms of our standard pitching stats.

Basically, I just have to convert outs recorded (PA - H - HBP - BB + GDP) to innings pitched. The splits don't include pickoffs, caught stealings, or outs on the bases, although those shouldn't make a big difference in the overall numbers, and probably shouldn't necessarily be credited to the pitchers anyway. I'm using the batting events to calculate context-neutral batting runs against using linear weights instead of looking at actual runs allowed.

I'll also include the FIP data to account for defense and/or random fluctuations that may not be captured in the actual batting events. I haven't park-adjusted these numbers, which for the Yankees means their HRs will probably show as too high which will impact their FIP, so keep that in mind. Their runs allowed will also look high depending on what the NYS Park Factor is. Last time I looked at it it was 1.06, but I haven't looked at in a while. If you want to adjust for that, multiply their BR allowed by 0.97.

So here's how the teams performed in April, sorted by runs saved above replacement (RSAR) looking at BR(batting runs) per nine, which will usually scale somewhere between team RA and ERA.

Team	BF	Outs	IP	H	BR	HR	BB	HBP	K	BR/9	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR	K/BF	BB/BF
SEA	830	589	196.3	179	78	13	69	8	148	3.56	3.73	30.2	51.7	21.2	41.7	0.178	0.083
KCA	806	578	192.7	172	77	16	74	5	172	3.62	3.72	28.4	49.6	20.9	41.0	0.213	0.092
OAK	765	531	177.0	163	81	18	88	2	128	4.12	4.60	16.3	35.7	1.9	20.4	0.167	0.115
TBA	856	595	198.3	189	99	23	87	6	147	4.47	4.63	10.4	32.2	1.5	22.2	0.172	0.102
TOR	928	648	216.0	202	111	27	88	9	177	4.61	4.53	8.0	31.8	4.0	26.5	0.191	0.095
DET	791	548	182.7	185	95	26	72	3	137	4.68	4.78	5.5	25.5	-1.7	17.4	0.173	0.091
BOS	884	593	197.7	200	108	22	93	13	162	4.91	4.62	0.9	22.6	1.8	22.5	0.183	0.105
CHA	839	558	186.0	205	102	16	81	3	135	4.93	4.22	0.3	20.7	9.9	29.3	0.161	0.097
MIN	838	571	190.3	213	107	26	62	5	132	5.06	4.64	-2.4	18.5	1.2	21.0	0.158	0.074
LAA	819	549	183.0	217	103	20	70	4	114	5.05	4.59	-2.1	18.0	2.3	21.4	0.139	0.085
NYA	871	580	193.3	206	120	28	86	16	156	5.58	5.05	-13.7	7.5	-7.6	12.6	0.179	0.099
CLE	873	579	193.0	217	128	30	94	10	142	5.95	5.37	-21.6	-0.4	-14.3	5.9	0.163	0.108
TEX	853	559	186.3	215	124	33	84	11	114	5.97	5.81	-21.3	-0.8	-23.0	-3.5	0.134	0.098
BAL	890	580	193.3	243	145	40	70	8	151	6.75	5.54	-38.8	-17.6	-18.0	2.2	0.170	0.079
LgAvg	11843	8058	2686.0	2806	1476	338	1118	103	2015	4.94	4.70	0.0	21.1	0.0	20.0	0.170	0.094

BR/9: Batting runs allowed per nine innings using linear weights
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number.
RSAA: Runs saved above average using BR/9 subtracted from league average BR/9 divided by nine times innings pitched.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement using BR/9 but subtracted from a replacement level instead of average (1.2 times league average)
FRSAA: RSAA calculated using FIP instead of BR/9
FRSAR: RSAR calculated using FIP instead of BR/9
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
BB/BF: Walks per batters faced

The Yankees were less than a win better than replacement level in April, ranking 14th in the AL in RSAR, ahead of only Cleveland, Texas, and Baltimore. While the longball didn't help things, several teams were worse in that department. FIP felt they pitched a bit better than BR/9, but not that much better.

Since May 1, here's how the teams have performed.

Team	BF	Outs	IP	H	BR	HR	BB	HBP	K	BR/9	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR	K/BF	BB/BF
CHA	2195	1569	523.0	482	234	63	176	16	425	4.02	4.24	30.1	82.8	11.9	63.6	0.194	0.080
SEA	2201	1535	511.7	494	247	63	202	14	379	4.34	4.59	11.2	62.8	-7.9	42.7	0.172	0.092
MIN	2223	1571	523.7	519	257	68	158	24	383	4.41	4.47	7.2	60.0	-1.2	50.6	0.172	0.071
TEX	2166	1518	506.0	497	248	58	181	25	326	4.40	4.62	7.6	58.6	-9.9	40.1	0.151	0.084
BOS	2181	1508	502.7	510	246	49	166	28	432	4.40	3.91	7.9	58.6	30.2	79.9	0.198	0.076
NYA	2182	1515	505.0	469	248	72	205	26	450	4.42	4.64	6.4	57.3	-11.0	38.9	0.206	0.094
TBA	2194	1534	511.3	499	253	64	185	15	401	4.45	4.43	5.2	56.7	0.9	51.4	0.183	0.084
OAK	2276	1583	527.7	557	267	58	175	9	402	4.56	4.15	-1.1	52.2	17.4	69.5	0.177	0.077
LgAvg	30939	21495	7165.0	7193	3613	856	2632	267	5444	4.54	4.45	0.0	40.9	0.0	38.4	0.176	0.085
DET	2212	1530	510.0	500	258	57	227	12	405	4.55	4.47	-0.6	50.8	-1.3	49.1	0.183	0.103
KCA	2184	1506	502.0	523	254	52	183	17	366	4.56	4.28	-1.2	49.4	9.1	58.7	0.168	0.084
TOR	2163	1507	502.3	512	258	64	172	19	399	4.63	4.41	-5.0	45.7	2.2	51.8	0.184	0.080
BAL	2231	1539	513.0	542	277	61	183	23	322	4.85	4.70	-18.0	33.7	-14.1	36.6	0.144	0.082
LAA	2203	1506	502.0	517	270	64	195	28	389	4.84	4.64	-17.0	33.6	-10.8	38.9	0.177	0.089
CLE	2328	1574	524.7	572	297	63	224	11	365	5.10	4.71	-32.5	20.4	-15.5	36.3	0.157	0.096

The Yankees have been markedly better since April, moving up to fifth best in terms of runs saved above replacement. Their BR/9 has been better than their FIP, which could mean any or all of the following:
1) Their defense is playing better than average
2) The pitchers are allowing more easily fieldable balls in play (fewer line drives, more fly balls)
3) Random fluctuation of how balls in play have been distributed
4) Other stuff I'm probably not thinking of

We also see the Yankees have the best strikeout rate in the AL since April (they struck out 20.6% of the batters they faced compared to a league average of 17.6%). The BB rate isn't great at 9.4%, although Cleveland (9.6%) and Detroit (10.3%) have been worse.

Lastly, here's how the teams look for the entire season.

Team	BF	Outs	IP	H	BR	HR	BB	HBP	K	BR/9	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR	K/BF	BB/BF
SEA	3031	2124	708	673	325	76	271	22	527	4.13	4.35	41.3	114.5	13.3	84.4	0.174	0.089
CHA	3034	2127	709	687	336	79	257	19	560	4.26	4.24	30.4	103.6	21.8	92.9	0.185	0.085
KCA	2990	2084	694.7	695	332	68	257	22	538	4.30	4.13	27.2	99.0	30.0	99.7	0.180	0.086
TBA	3050	2129	709.7	688	351	87	272	21	548	4.45	4.49	15.5	88.9	2.3	73.6	0.180	0.089
OAK	3041	2114	704.7	720	348	76	263	11	530	4.45	4.26	15.2	87.9	19.3	89.9	0.174	0.086
BOS	3065	2101	700.3	710	353	71	259	41	594	4.54	4.11	8.8	81.2	32.0	102.4	0.194	0.085
MIN	3061	2142	714	732	364	94	220	29	515	4.59	4.52	4.8	78.5	-0.1	71.6	0.168	0.072
TOR	3091	2155	718.3	714	369	91	260	28	576	4.62	4.45	3.0	77.4	6.2	78.4	0.186	0.084
DET	3003	2078	692.7	685	353	83	299	15	542	4.58	4.55	4.8	76.3	-3.0	66.5	0.180	0.100
NYA	3053	2095	698.3	675	368	100	291	42	606	4.75	4.76	-7.3	64.9	-18.6	51.5	0.198	0.095
TEX	3019	2077	692.3	712	371	91	265	36	440	4.83	4.94	-13.7	57.8	-32.8	36.6	0.146	0.088
LAA	3022	2055	685	734	373	84	265	32	503	4.90	4.63	-19.1	51.6	-8.5	60.2	0.166	0.088
CLE	3201	2153	717.7	789	425	93	318	21	507	5.33	4.89	-54.1	20.0	-29.8	42.2	0.158	0.099
BAL	3121	2119	706.3	785	422	101	253	31	473	5.37	4.93	-56.8	16.2	-32.1	38.7	0.152	0.081
LgAvg	42782	29553	9851	9999	5089	1194	3750	370	7459	4.65	4.52	0.0	72.7	0.0	70.6	0.174	0.088

Looking at the season at a whole, the Yankees are still below average overall (10th in RSAR), although trending upward. If we adjust their numbers for a 1.06 park factor we only get about a five run difference in their BR/9, so they would still rank ninth in terms of RSAR. The K rate is encouraging, but I'd like to see the BB rate come down a little.

Looking at the teams ahead of the Yankees, none are really outpitching their FIP, so if the Yankees are going to move up this list they'll probably need to do it on their own. I think I could see them creeping towards average, which would necessitate passing Detroit and Toronto. Given their ballpark that would be pretty good.

In roster news, Wang goes to the DL, with Albaladejo being called up. I don't think this means Hughes gets Wang's next start, I think it just means they wanted a bullpen arm for the next four days while they decide who gets the start in Wang's stead.

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